Categories
Options
Why I’m laying a 2023 general election – politicalbetting.com
Why I’m laying a 2023 general election – politicalbetting.com
Marginal Tory MP pleads: no election next year pic.twitter.com/GIIiEUTMlz
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
The Tories will have been in charge for 14 years and the economic situation will likely be appalling with a very unpopular PM at the helm.
It's still possible for Labour to blow it though - and the Tories still have time to junk their leader for someone sensible who could reframe the game.
Mr. Royale, I'll believe the PCP has the sense to ditch the imbecile when they've done it.
For a start, even though I can't stand him and his behaviour regularly gets him in trouble, I recognise him to be a dangerous operator. He's a shit but shits are dangerous. That means that when the market thinks he's a goner, it's time to apply the thinking cap and go against the trend. As you may know, for the most part I've suggested on here that he would survive until the 2024 General Election. There are plenty of sound reasons for this, which goes against my wishes, but the markets thought otherwise. That's a betting opportunity.
I don't think the tory party is in a condition to remove their most successful winner since Thatcher. They can't get beyond that fact, which is almost entirely driven by their Brexit obsessions. Whether what mattered in 2019 will matter in 2024 is another issue and David Canzini's briefing has more than raised eyebrows.
The long and the short is that my head tells me Johnson will lead the tories into the next General Election which, because of the cost of living crisis and Starmer's strength, will almost certainly be in 2024.
If you want to bet against Johnson succeeding then I think the election is the one to go for and, perhaps, against him holding his own seat. Otherwise, the money is to be made betting on him surviving the next two years.
The Q2 tyres are no longer automatically fitted to the top 10, who instead have a free choice. I think this is something of a backwards step, but there we are. At least they haven't done something totally stupid, like having a sprint 'pretend' race acting as a pointless intermediary between qualifying and the race.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-was-at-tory-fundraiser-with-russian-donor-on-night-of-ukraine-invasion-zwmg2snjr (£££)
The Russian donor at the fundraising event was Lubov Chernukhin, wife of a former Russian deputy finance minister, who has given almost £2m to the Conservative Party since 2012.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/pm-labelled-threat-to-national-security-over-reports-he-attended-tory-fundraising-party-on-night-putin-launched-invasion/ar-AAVh0gi
In an age when we should be focused on renewable energies and getting back to nature, racing internal combustion engines (however hybridised) around an asphalt track under artificial rules and heaps of sexism and dirty money, is not where the world's soul and vision should be.
Just my view and I wish you enjoyment of the race, peace and successful betting.
Ukraine = Brexit could be shaping up to be a Ratner moment, but there have been so many false dawns
Smarkets currently have odds on CPI inflation hitting 7.5% by July. The odds on this don't really attract me.
I'm looking to see if I can get odds on 10% CPI by end of the year. That's more controversial but there's a hell of a lot of surge upstream. Double-digit inflation would really be a meme changer I suspect. I think you have to go back to 1981 for the last time?
https://smarkets.com/event/42611472/current-affairs/uk-economy/uk-inflation-to-hit-7-5-by-july
Both share the attempt to recast reality, to warp truth, to generate something from the opposite of what is actually true.
Here's another example of classic Johnson Putinism. Knowing he is vulnerable to attacks over dirty Russian donations to the tory party, Johnson has upturned the truth to make out it's Keir Starmer who is opening the floodgates to dirty Russian money.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/03/19/labour-trying-open-floodgates-russian-political-donations-claims/
Johnson is a lying shit. An unflushable turd. The nastiest piece of work to be our PM in at least a century. A Putinist.
Go and whistle to yourself in the corner. Or play with your willy. Whatever it is that keeps you happy in your sad little warped mind.
Betting PostF1: it's the first pre-race tosh of the year.
https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2022/03/bahrain-pre-race-2022.html
Backed Sainz, hedged, to win at 9, and to be on the podium at 1.83.
Music was great in the 70s. The economy? Not so much.
The biggest risk for the Tories is the economic situation will be dire and, windfall tax aside, Reeves seems to be pretty competent. Certainly compared to her predecessors and Starmer still leads on Best PM in the polling. I’ve a few quid on Starmer as next PM and I’m quite happy with that.
(And starting off a post with terms like 'The Right on here won't like it...' is also a bad idea, as you are already framing the reaction to your post. "Of course, you say that, you're on the Right!')
The UK leaving the EU was predicated on evil lies and there are countless other examples from that macro level to micro ones which aren't so micro if you are the one on the receiving end. I know of people who have been traduced by his lies, smeared into despair and suicidal thoughts. He tramples on people for his own egomania.
Boris Johnson is evil.
Besides, an NFZ might very well play into Russia's hands at the moment. It's a major escalation that gives them an excuse to escalate.
Your last paragraph is ridiculous.
I discovered that the only way to survive on here is not to be reasonable back to the obnoxious right-wingers. You have to fight fire with fire to survive on pb.com.
It's sad because it's not how I live my life but this is a bear pit of a forum, majority populated by white boomers and older. It's not a forum that is made easy for a gentle female who is interested in betting, especially if they are moderately left of centre.
As for the No Fly Zone, we should back the President of Ukraine. We are being made to look like fools.
Bright but chilly here, with a cold wind yesterday.
As far as our PM is concerned I'm about halfway between Ms Heathener and Mr Jessop; I have a nasty suspicion that our PM could easily be 'evil' if events turned against him and he couldn't do his 'greased piglet' act.
Two or three times in the Commons he's looked to be at least on the verge of a temper tantrum when he's been challenged.
Evil is bombing civilians out of their own homeland. Stop fucking debasing the word. Twat.
Basically they don't like my globalist (non-nationalist) stance so the only way they can get their tiny little brains to respond is to accuse me of being a) a troll and b) a Putin supporter.
The fact that I'm neither is not something they want to entertain because they can't engage with other truths than their own myopic armchair weltanschauung.
Full story: https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/boris-johnson-brexit-ukraine_uk_6236cf9de4b009ab92f97d0b https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1505445156199317506/photo/1
We’re backing the president of Ukraine already. Good job too.
Have a g'day everyone. Even you, MM. See, it's called magnanimity. Try it. You'll improve your character.
https://twitter.com/cjsnowdon/status/1497553538175614978?s=21
Enjoy your day.
And they'll never forgive him for either or both of those.
It isn't a straight repeat though. We have far less of a manufacturing economy, we have very weak private sector Trade Unions, a much older population, and we have no politicians who support living within our means. It is quite a different cocktail.
Despite inflation, war, the worst consumer confidence for decades, visible stagflation, China in lockdown etc my equity portfolio is up quite a bit this week. Quite what I should do with it is unclear. The 1973 fuel crisis led to a severe bear market. Are we there again? The 1979 one led to a very long bull market.
Yet when they try to ;live within our means', you would be the first to shout 'austerity'.
'Living within our means' unfortunately means cuts: even with hefty tax rises. Covid and energy prices will see to that.
He just can’t help himself
https://amp.economist.com/britain/2021/10/09/wages-are-rising-in-britain-but-so-are-prices-and-taxes
and presumably the inflation bulge makes things worse.
There are bad times just around the corner, and the outlook's absolutely vile.
*innocent face*
The idea that the Ukraine/Brexit comparison will have any impact on his leadership is quite strange. After everything he has said and done, his fans are suddenly going to ditch him over that? Of course not.
However I don't get your communism point. We didn't have a communism issue and still don't and Boris hasn't done anything to solve a non existing issue. What exactly are you talking about?
There are deeds and people that are, IMV, 'evil'. For instance, Fred West was evil as both a person and in the deeds he did. If you start saying that anyone you dislike is 'evil', it reduces the crimes of the really bad people.
"lifetime of selfishly making life mildly unpleasant for everyone in their ambit"
I'd call that nasty. 'evil' is another level beyond that IMO.
You are no different to Nick Palmer saying we should not 'poke' Russia into invading Ukraine: you are putting agency on us where we really do not have agency. Iran could - and should - have ignored Boris' remarks; instead they used them as part of their game. But Nazanin was not going to be released until Iran got what they wanted. And then there's the man they have not released...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hob1nbP_UKM
One problem is that the most heavily contested areas of Ukraine eg Mariupol are many hundreds of km from Nato territory.
We are not used to NFZ's against near peer enemies, and we do not appreciate the distances.
Flying cover over Mariupol, for example, from Poland (and we only have access to NATO countries at the Western end of Ukr) is around the same distance as flying air cover over Rome from bases near London.
Apart from the vulnerable air tankers etc we would be flying over Ukraine, it's not even clear that we have the assets to do it.
You seem to have me confused with some other poster.
If every again a PB Tory bores on about ‘remoaners obsessed with Brexit’, they can fuck right off.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/20/ukraine-crisis-claims-mariupol-women-and-children-forcibly-sent-to-russia
Authorities in the Ukrainian city of Mariupol have said Russian troops have forcibly deported several thousand residents to Russia, as reports emerged that Russian forces bombed an art school in the city where 400 people were taking shelter.
“Over the past week, several thousand Mariupol residents were deported on to the Russian territory,” the city council said in a statement on its Telegram channel late on Saturday.
“The occupiers illegally took people from the Livoberezhniy district and from the shelter in the sports club building, where more than a thousand people (mostly women and children) were hiding from the constant bombing.”…
There are a variety of leftists in the world, and some who are more radical than the Communists. The left is a buffet of different and often incompatable ideas.
Keep it up.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/03/19/labour-trying-open-floodgates-russian-political-donations-claims/ (£££)
They are delivering the reality of Brexit, a never ending shitshow
https://ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/UKICE-British-Politics-after-Brexit.pdf https://twitter.com/DrAlanWager/status/1505279491526074372/photo/1
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1505443286353391617
Russian handlers of the occupied part of Donetsk Oblast announced another wave of mobilization among locals, raising the mobilization age to 65 years. - Gen.Staff.
Ukraine's Main Directorate of Intelligence says that Russian units formed from mobilized Donbas locals have extremely low combat training, discipline, morale. PoWs from such units say that the Russians use them as "live bait" - an advanced echelon of reconnaissance by combat.
"On March 16-17, one of such subunits comprising 250-300 "mobilized" Donbas locals lost about 200 troops on the Mykolaiv axis, according to Ukraine's intel.
If you want obnoxious....
I've met a few people in life who I would call nasty: a couple in my professional life, and one or two in my personal life. I have only ever met one person who I would call genuinely 'evil'. Sadly AFAIAA he never ended up in jail, but never mind.
Last month, NI civil servants took advice from someone – Whitehall says the EU – to harden the Irish Sea border, but didn't tell their minister. Firms lost money after GB loads were arbitrarily turned back by secretly altered rules - with no compensation.
For two government departments to blame each other for a major policy change, as here, is highly unusual - but not unheard of. But for two departments to say that their ministers had no role in the policy is remarkable. It means no one is democratically accountable for this.
https://twitter.com/SJAMcBride/status/1505086409543200769
I think as a general principle the expression "cannon fodder" needs examining. Some UK bloke was complaining that he went to Ukraine to fight but they wanted to sent him on a cannon fodder suicide mission instead. What sort of fire fight is there which is not also a cannon fodder suicide mission? Consider Saving P R, first 30 minutes. FF or CFSM or both?
But to say he's evil is wrong.
However she says she doesn’t have to make a decision until she draws the pension which, for the final salary scheme she’s looking in the next four years.
I’ll have to mention a potential tax liability to her as she’s not mentioned it.
But if those who voted Leave who aren’t viscerally anti-EU but bought the rhetoric of the Leave campaigns and who haven’t received their unicorns yet abandon the collective self-imposed omertà then this low-level, quiet, ‘Brexit is a mistake’ feeling could become something stronger:
‘On which subject I recently had an interesting encounter with a Remainer British expat who was visiting his Brexiter friends in assorted home counties havens. To his surprise, he found that most of them were admitting in private but could not bring themselves to say so publicly: “Brexit is a catastrophe.”’
https://www.theguardian.com/business/commentisfree/2022/mar/20/war-has-highlighted-the-geopolitical-folly-of-britains-departure-from-the-eu
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dUmqSUx8W8Y
(Except that the silly old bugger went for Moths, which would not make a good sitcom title. I can't find a vid of the titles in 10s, unfortunately.)