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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Take LAB majority odds at 2-1 or longer – this is now a gre
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Take LAB majority odds at 2-1 or longer – this is now a great value bet
Yesterday’s batch of Lord Ashcroft polls of key CON-LAB marginals is further evidence that the betting price on CON majority is far too tight and that on a LAB one too long.
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Edit: Sod it, I'll follow you in Mike.
that just sounds so wrong...
Strange but true: next year, at the start of the season, Toro Rosso's drivers will have a combined age of 37.
What we saw then simply cannot be compared with what's now being produced.
The Tories would be in with a better shout if they had a leader with a background like John Major or David David. It was a massive mistake going for an old Etonian who operates in a circle of other old Etonians.
Bedford has been crowned the UK's most generous town, according to data gathered by donation site JustGiving.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-28870779
(joke) As Tories are all heartless, selfish people, that's not a good sign for them winning the seat.(/end joke)
Last month's total took the year-to-date figure to 923,884 - a 3.4% increase on the total for the first seven months of last year.
Cars made for export rose 2.9% last month, taking the total number exported since 2010 past the 5 million mark.
The average exported car was worth over £20,600, compared to £10,200 in 2004.
The SMMT has forecast that annual production will beat 1972's record of 1.92 million cars by 2017.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-28877073
Lab Maj: £234.74
NOM: +£213.45
Con Maj: -£689.20
'True position'
My seat position is pretty much a 180 flip.
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/match-bet
It was covered on PB
http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/11/30/will-ukip-outpoll-the-lib-dems-at-the-2015-general-election/
OGH: " I've just backed LAB at 2.3/1 on Betfair to win overall majority following latest @LordAshcroft marginals polling."
I'm aware that Mike isn't a great fan of Stephen Fisher's GE seat projections, but for those of us who are, this looks like a losing bet with Dr Fisher giving Labour only a 21% chance of achieving an overall majority and therefore a 79% chance of not doing so. This equates to odds of 3.76/1, way ahead of the price Mike took today with Betfair.
Even if Stephen Fisher has somewhat over-egged it for the Blues, most believe that the Tories will significantly close the gap or better over the next few months. Were this indeed to happen, it seems very likely that Labour's odds would lengthen as a result.
My guess is that UKIP will attract most votes and get almost no return.
Aggregate national vote shares, of course, don't decide elections. What happens in 650 local contests is what matters.
How many times has Bullingdon Club member Boris Johnston won Mayor of London. Who would bet against him winning again if he stood?
Its a pretty pathetic statement to come out with to say that if you are comfortably off with a pair of decent but wealthy parents that you are unsuited to be Prime Minister. Or even deputy prime minister. Or deputy leader of the Labour Party.
Heaven forbid that someone educated at Dulwich College and with a rich city slicker background should aspire to top the EU elections.
That was 9 months ago and pre-EU14. Will UKIP maintain its momentum gained from EU14?
Whilst the LDs may get more seats than UKIP, it is the \UKIP votes that may well decide GE2015.
Lab 2.98 / 3.1
Con 3.9 / 4
NOM 2.34 / 2.5
Fisher ignores the fact of coalition and the even bigger issue of the fixed term parliament act.
Was that a misprint on your part or is this one consequence of the recent F1 changes?
Con - 41%
Lab - 25%
Lib - 19%
So there was something like a 4-5% swing to the final election result. Not enough to give a Tory majority, but let's look closer.
The percentage saying "don't know" is higher in 2014 (22%) than in 2009 (14%). Thus there is greater potential for the campaign to move the polls this time around.
If you look at the age splits there is further comfort for the Tories. The swings (+ve to Labour) between 2009 and 2014 in each age group are:
18-24: +13.5%
25-34: +9%
35-64: +7.5%
65+: +0.5%
Given the well-known positive correlation between age and turnout and that looks quite encouraging for the Conservatives.
I wouldn't say that it was a strong case, and the 25% probability implied by Betfair does look too high, but it's not as weak a position as you imply. Consequently, I think it's the hung Parliament outcome that is value, as there's ample evidence that Miliband will fall just short of a majority - this is suggested by the by-election swings for example.
By all means lay a Conservative majority and back a Hung Parliament, but backing a Labour majority is, well, courageous.
You know, after we sold Luis Suarez, I thought, there'd be no more controversy at the club for a while.
Today -
Tony Barrett @TonyBarretTimes 3m
Talks between Liverpool and AC Milan over Balotelli are progressing well and are set to resume today.
Glad the daft complaints over engine noise (or lack thereof) have abated. This time tomorrow, P1 will be underway.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/uk/scotland/referendum/article4182542.ece
''Sir Ian Wood, the UK’s pre-eminent oil tycoon, has delivered a devastating assessment of the economics of Scottish independence, warning that diminishing reserves would “seriously hit” a separate state’s jobs and public services. ''
''Sir Ian said the SNP government’s most quoted prediction of a further 24 billion barrels left in the North Sea was 45 to 65 per cent too high. He also said its estimate of the annual tax revenues was exaggerated by £2 billion to £7 billion rather than £5 billion. He said this was a shortfall of about £370 per Scot. ''
For what its worth its my opinion that Salmond and the SNP ae grossly underestimating the costs of an iScotland's defence budget.
Just please tell me that your gun makes a "pyooooooow" (again to rhyme with cow) noise.
Either way people are just laughing at these daily messages of doom.
We had subway Grey on the radio this morning saying we would have no money at all and have to keep it in wooden boxes, Labour have really lost the plot.
Here are just a few of the messages since April 2014
“Yes vote risks foreign aid”
“Yes vote is threat to freedom”
“Scots would lose access to BBC shows after independence”
“Independent Scotland’s viewers must pay extra for BBC”
“Alex Salmond’s currency Plan A would collapse within a year”
“Independent Scotland’s economy would crash if it tried to use sterling”
“Go-it-alone Scotland ‘defenceless’: Nation will be left without weapons”
“Mortgages up £1600 if Yes”
“Scottish yes vote could lead to currency limbo, say MPs”
“Postal costs in Scotland could rise after independence, say MPs”
“Scotland and the UK will separate geographically, as well as politically”
“Yes could be catalyst for sterling crisis”
“Yes will send shares crashing”
“Labour claim 1m may lose jobs after independence”
“Darling: Independence could cost Scotland £8bn”
“700,000 to Leave if Union is Broken”
“Yes vote would lead to economic crisis worse than the crash”
“UK split to set back cure for cancer”
“Gordon Brown raises organ-transplant fears ahead of referendum”
“Alex Salmond Is A ‘Prototype Dictator’ And ‘Master Of The Borg’”
“Juncker Ends Salmond’s European Dream”
“Scotland’s tourism industry is threatened by independence”
“Split ‘may cost Scots £400m for welfare IT’
“Yes vote pension cost warning“
“Vulnerable people could lose benefits in an independent Scotland“
“Bank bailout doubt if Scots vote to quit UK“
“Independent Scotland Could Suffer Iceland-Style Financial Collapse“
“Consumers would snub separate Scotland’s brands“
“Scottish independence ‘would harm world’s poorest’”
“Go-alone Scotland faces threats from space”
“Scottish Independence Will Lead to Soaring Energy Bills”
“Scotland faces £143bn debt after independence”
“Fears for fishing in breakaway Scotland”
“Thousands of defence jobs will be at risk if Scotland votes Yes”
“Scottish independence will cause civil war in Africa”
“Scottish independence would be cataclysmic for the world”
Well done George.
OGH wouldn't take on the bet even when I offered him 10% better than best bookie price
@neil we need to confirm what price we bet at... I don't think it was Evens but could be wrong
'Gun', indeed.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/george-bush-delivers-possibly-the-best-als-ice-bucket-challenge-yet-9680934.html
Salmond to do ice bucket challenge, might liven up the live TV debate.
Economic clouds gathering at just the wrong time for the Tories.
I did not realise it was a Nat free day or I would not have replied - but you did ask.
Now, it may be different this time. As Mike points out, the dynamics of coalition are different to what we are used to. That's a political judgement (and, yes, political betting is all about political judgement). Just don't fool yourself into thinking that it is based on hard evidence.
My secondary disagreement is specifically in relation to a Labour majority. I think there remains a quite large range of possible outcomes in the election - I don't pretend to be able to make predictions of unwarranted precision. But a Labour majority looks the least likely outcome. It's not impossible, but it does require a fairly heroic assumption, namely that nothing much will change as the actual choice comes into focus and - most importantly - as Ed Miliband is forced to give at least some vague outline of a policy platform. The reason that things shift towards the incumbent in many elections is precisely this: as the election approaches, the opposition finds it harder to be all things to all men and is forced to make some decisions. Ed Miliband has done a quite remarkable job of obfuscation so far. I don't think that will survive the scrutiny of an election campaign. As things get clearer, supporters who have projected contradictory things on to him will peel off or lose interest.
Thirdly, we need to look not only at the polling - a poor indicator at this stage - but also at the wider politics and economics, which favour the Tories. By any objective standard, the government has an absolutely superb economic story to tell. Will voters really ignore their own interests out of class prejudice? Maybe, but I doubt it.
And finally - gut feel. This is of course subjective, by I am very struck by something really odd about Labour at the moment: they don't look at all like a party getting ready to govern. The Shadow Cabinet (incidentally one of the weakest of modern times) seem to be going through the motions, but where is the energy and enthusiasm about what they would like to do in office? There isn't any. If you want opposition energy and enthusiasm, you need to look at UKIP, where the leadership and members are all fired up and keen to tell us about what they would do differently. The contrast is stark.
UKIP - LD Votes bet - Back UKIP
Urban Southwest seats - Back the Lib Dems (Eastleigh, Torbay, Sutton on Cheam)
Scotland - Lay the Lib Dems (Caithness, Gordon, Dunbartonshire East, Inverness..)
Lib Dem - Go long on Lost deposits
UKIP seats - ~ 3 seats in the East of England.
Incredible revelations about PB people in the comments
I'd seen something about the ALS ice challenge before, but didn't realise it was MND.
However, I do have to concede that my view on that is related to your final point, which is that it is based on gut feeling on my party. Nevertheless, Labour being in a shambles doesn't seem enough to overcome the disadvantages the Tories face internally and externally, when coupled with the lack of gratitude that they will probably receive.
@TradeDesk_Steve
Inflation down, Retail sales down 3 mths in row, Two MPC members keeping heads down today
With polls in 66 individual constituencies now the less accurate predicted result in seats is LAB 392, CON 174, LD 32, UKIP 22, NAT 12, or in the more accurate vote shares LAB 34, CON 28, UKIP 18, LD 9, GRN 3.
From the last sample Labour has increased its seats, while everyone else has less predicted seats, while the share of the vote has stayed the same.
I regard this 'ordinary people ' business as a deliberate twaddle perpetuated by opponents of the conservative party. Its a twaddle that that socialists have peddled for generations and its sad to see Mr Smithson jump on the bandwagon because the point of repeating it is to perpetuate it and make it a self fullfilling proposition.
Its absurd to think that because someone is well off that they do not understand the needs of 'ordinary people', that somehow well off socialists or libdems are oh so different from well off conservatives. Its a nasty smear.
And how true is it? Cameron has led his party on popularity. Cameron goes out and does regular question and answer sessions all over the place with - yes you guessed it - ordinary people.
What socialists and libdems would like to think is one thing but the facts are quite different.
And let me say again whilst on the subject.... in 2005 I would have been happy to see David Davis as leader. But since then I can only sadly conclude that the only ordinary person he is interested in is himself.
David Cameron is about the only thing the Conservatives have going for them and the only politician who could do a better job currently is Boris Johnson... Another Old Etonian, LOL...
And I agree about the electoral importance of stagnating wages. If one has more than enough, then one can be fairly relaxed about it, but if one is close to Mr Micawbers £, then rising prices, even slowly rising ones, are a concern. And slight falls are a relief, not a cause for celebration!
Clearly these are issues surrounding Vincent Tan. Maybe Malky should send Farage round to appologise - its certainly interesing that a football club have higher standards than a party running 3rd in the polls. .
So the popularity numbers can be very predictable, Cameron's numbers will be the sum of the tories and liberals, while Miliband will always be about half the Labour share.
Didn't stop a large number of PBers cleaning up in the US elections
Of course, few people are paying much attention to politics at the moment and maybe Labour have a plan to dazzle us in the autumn with a thought-through programme for government. We shall see.
Therefore, unfair as it is, Tories are expected to prove they understand ordinary people. Cameron has not done as terrible a job at that as some think - despite being posh and out of touch, he does better than his party in the ratings - and switching to some more 'ordinary' Tory (as if the leaderships are not pretty much all political wonks) would not be guaranteed to be more successful at appealing to ordinary people, but it probably would have been handy to blunt Labour attacks somewhat, to a small degree, if he was essentially the same guy but also more ordinary.
The other amusing thing is that the PBer who was most accurate on predicting the Scottish results in the 2010 GE was antifrank, who I imagine has never worn a sporran in his life.
Its the fact that Labour might think through a plan for govt that worries me. We've seen how they think.
I have to say the SNP is getting desperate with Salmond willing to give up his job and disband the SNP for YES to win.
It's like they are saying "if you hate me vote YES, please!!".
I don't follow that at all I'm afraid.
However, as we are not allowed to post about Scotland on here today I won't say that. Perhaps I'll say it tomorrow instead.
Another crash is coming. It may come before May 2015 or after. But it looks more and more like EICIPM is going to happen and we'll have a lefty wonk in No.10 and a cabinet of empty but politically correct suits. And that's who'll be running the country when the SHTF. A disaster for the country looms - but politically the next one might be a good one to lose.
Tory 5 million seat majority under BoJo in 2017. ;-)
At best you can see this as a sort of Prisoner's Dilemma situation, but it does get a bit tiresome.
We've now seen how ineffective Tory policies are on pulling the economy and the public finances out of the doldrums.
Which is why Labour lead in the polls and the Tories can barely add a percentage point to their share.
I agree he's far more affable, likeable and witty, but in a debate format that style might not be to his advantage.
Speaking of debates, once the referendum's out of the way they're going to have to iron out the format, given Cameron wants them spread out a bit more.
Wage restraint has preserved jobs it has created jobs as has being flexible about work. This is overwhelmingly a good thing and has helped people off the dole and benefits and onto the workm ladder. This selflessness this realism this sacrifice should be applauded by socialists. Instead they lie to us in the name of cheap political opportunism.
Wage restraint is a 'good thing' it offeres the prospect of an inflation free, jobs strong recovery. It realigns us for the future, it should be encouraged and wage rises should be linked to real productivity gains. It offers the prospect of us becoming properly competitive instead of paying ourselves for things we have not earned.
Wage restraint is the inevitable payment we are making for all the free lunches we had under 13 years of Labour misrule.
But we shall see soon enough who is right in the indyref. I am in marginal profit on all outcomes, but best off if Jacks MCARSE produces!
a 'proper' holiday in other words. ; )
http://blogs.wsj.com/law/2014/08/18/legal-experts-weigh-in-on-case-against-texas-gov-rick-perry/
http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2014/08/rick-perrys-mugshot-vs-official-governors-portrait-which-is-better/
He has turned it into a persecution case by the democrats and even if he is convicted by the jury he will have a judge to overturn the ruling, in the short turn I say that makes him the front runner for the nomination.
Bet accordingly but only short term (Perry still has the IQ of G.W. Bush and can screw up).
And Tories wonder why they're perceived as not caring about ordinary people.
It's nothing to do with class.