politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Constituency polling from these key LAB-CON marginals could

JosiasJessop said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, didn't Schumacher marry Verstappen's ex?

Edited extra bit: might have been Frentzen[sp]. My memory of F1 before the last few years is atrocious.

T'was HH Frentzen.

17 seems too young to me. He's done hardly any racing, and although he's 2nd in the F3 championship, I wonder at his racecraft.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Max_Verstappen

Then again, Kimi hadn't done much before F1...

Don't you have to have some professional qualification 'a driver's test' before being allowed to drive in F1? Any road up if it walks like a gimmick quacks like a gimmick then its a gimmick. There presumably is money following him around - this is F1 after all.

Alanbrooke said:

BenM said:

MaxPB said:

BenM said:

Deflation alert as CPI falls to 1.6%.

Neo-liberals pushing for an interest rate rise confounded again.

Deflation alert?

Alarmist much! Surely this is a good thing for people struggling with the cost of living.

It's quite something that Osborne has managed to engineer a cost of living crisis with inflation crashing through the floor.

A clear example of Osborne's glaring incompetence. Still, he'll be out of office soon.

As someone who has little time for Osborne, even I wouldn't call that bit of good news bad.

In the same way super low gilt yields absolutely does not mean everything's great in the economy or fiscal management (despite foolish Tory attempts to paint it otherwise), inflation heading towards 1% isn't great either as the ECBs much-too-late, desperate attempts to stoke inflation proves.

There should be inflation pressure should there not, if the economy was properly recovering?

And a cost-of-living crisis with inflation at 1.6%? How did Osborne get us into this mess? (Blinkered ideology is the answer of course)

BenM said:

Alanbrooke said:

BenM said:

MaxPB said:

BenM said:

Deflation alert as CPI falls to 1.6%.

Neo-liberals pushing for an interest rate rise confounded again.

Deflation alert?

Alarmist much! Surely this is a good thing for people struggling with the cost of living.

It's quite something that Osborne has managed to engineer a cost of living crisis with inflation crashing through the floor.

A clear example of Osborne's glaring incompetence. Still, he'll be out of office soon.

As someone who has little time for Osborne, even I wouldn't call that bit of good news bad.

In the same way super low gilt yields absolutely does not mean everything's great in the economy or fiscal management (despite foolish Tory attempts to paint it otherwise), inflation heading towards 1% isn't great either as the ECBs much-too-late, desperate attempts to stoke inflation proves.

There should be inflation pressure should there not, if the economy was properly recovering?

And a cost-of-living crisis with inflation at 1.6%? How did Osborne get us into this mess? (Blinkered ideology is the answer of course)

How's EdM's socialist pal Hollande doing in France ?

Bravo, BenM! Your persistence in flatly denying every aspect of reality is refreshing in its boldness and chutzpah.

DaemonBarber said:

OldKingCole said:

Doesn't BAU = SNAFU?

In politics, anyway!

SNAFU - I have time for that one - It's a military term rather than business-speak. But please use the correct F or STFU ;-)
FUBAR is another favourite.

(working in Software Development and Support, I hear these 2 a lot)

FUBAR ...... Salmond’s currency plans?

BenM said:

Alanbrooke said:

BenM said:

MaxPB said:

BenM said:

Deflation alert as CPI falls to 1.6%.

Neo-liberals pushing for an interest rate rise confounded again.

Deflation alert?

Alarmist much! Surely this is a good thing for people struggling with the cost of living.

It's quite something that Osborne has managed to engineer a cost of living crisis with inflation crashing through the floor.

A clear example of Osborne's glaring incompetence. Still, he'll be out of office soon.

As someone who has little time for Osborne, even I wouldn't call that bit of good news bad.

In the same way super low gilt yields absolutely does not mean everything's great in the economy or fiscal management (despite foolish Tory attempts to paint it otherwise), inflation heading towards 1% isn't great either as the ECBs much-too-late, desperate attempts to stoke inflation proves.

There should be inflation pressure should there not, if the economy was properly recovering?

And a cost-of-living crisis with inflation at 1.6%? How did Osborne get us into this mess? (Blinkered ideology is the answer of course)

But who in the government wants to raise rates, Carney has been looking for basically any reason not to do it.

Our low inflation rate is a function of falling petrol prices and a slightly stronger currency year on year coupled with a highly flexible labour market which is creating jobs. When the latter slows down as we approach 5% unemployment wages will naturally start to rise. Next month YoY wage rises will be around 1.1% which is not that far below the inflation rate, and that's with financial services dragging the headline rate down by 20-40bp. I would have thought you of all people would support slower wage growth in that particular sector.

Morris_Dancer said:

King Cole, but is it strong against the Vietnamese dong?

I really should get out more. The Dong is strengthening marginally against the pound.

That and the Laotion Kip are currencies where one does need a VERY large wallet to carry them about. I think a 10 minute taxi ride in Laos cost us 40,000 Kip a couple of years ago.

Some words and numbers I have written about the betting on #indyref turnout can be looked at here: http://t.co/XLTRU5PiLl

Average wages rates is an indication of the spare capacity in the UK.

We are still struggling to employ all the immigrants of the last 10+years, plus all those who are coming off incapacity benefits where they had been placed incorrectly by the last government.

Financier said:

foxinsoxuk said:

GIN1138 said:

The Sun's reporting debauchery going on at Magaluf!!!!!!!

Get me a ticket now! Get me a ticket now! Get me a ticket now!

Youngsters drinking and having sex on holiday? Who would have thought!

Just following the example of their elders and supposed betters (Clegg, Miliband and Cameron).

I suppose, since all three are known to be non-teetotallers and are all married, the conclusion might reasonably be drawn!

This comment at the Telegraph article on the 'no currency union' / 'sterlingisation as a temporary stop gap' is about right:

What Salmond is suggesting is pretty close to the situation of 'Zero Hour,' in Germany immediately after the war when they had no currency. The result was that in the occupation zones the effective currency was cigarettes, sex, dollars or slices of bread. Is this what Salmond is envisaging as the bright future for Scotland? What will he be using to barter with?

It's just astounding that Wee Eck thought he could get as far as 1 month to go to a full Sindy referendum and not have even a coherent Plan A let alone a Plan B on the most important issue of all. What an utter clusterfu<k of a policy vacuum. He really, genuinely thought he could bluster through this one. What a tool.

Betting post:

As we get closer to the general election so long odds on bets become more viable

A 1-10 bet now has a 14% yield for instance.

No tips in particular but something to bear in mind.

Patrick said:

This comment at the Telegraph article on the 'no currency union' / 'sterlingisation as a temporary stop gap' is about right:

What Salmond is suggesting is pretty close to the situation of 'Zero Hour,' in Germany immediately after the war when they had no currency. The result was that in the occupation zones the effective currency was cigarettes, sex, dollars or slices of bread. Is this what Salmond is envisaging as the bright future for Scotland? What will he be using to barter with?

It's just astounding that Wee Eck thought he could get as far as 1 month to go to a full Sindy referendum and not have even a coherent Plan A let alone a Plan B on the most important issue of all. What an utter clusterfu

My father, a pipe-smoker, was posted to Denmark at the end of the war and kept writing home for cigarettes, which my mother could not understand. Turned out that the German PoW’s he was using as labourers wanted cigarettes to send home to their families as currency!

Financier said:

Average wages rates is an indication of the spare capacity in the UK.

We are still struggling to employ all the immigrants of the last 10+years, plus all those who are coming off incapacity benefits where they had been placed incorrectly by the last government.

The last one and the one before, Major/Thatcher started the incapacity benefit con, Blair and Brown just continued it. Whatever one might think of IDS, he has at least had the gumption to tackle incapacity benefit fraud.

MonikerDiCanio said:

BenM said:

Alanbrooke said:

BenM said:

MaxPB said:

BenM said:

Deflation alert as CPI falls to 1.6%.

Neo-liberals pushing for an interest rate rise confounded again.

Deflation alert?

Alarmist much! Surely this is a good thing for people struggling with the cost of living.

It's quite something that Osborne has managed to engineer a cost of living crisis with inflation crashing through the floor.

A clear example of Osborne's glaring incompetence. Still, he'll be out of office soon.

As someone who has little time for Osborne, even I wouldn't call that bit of good news bad.

In the same way super low gilt yields absolutely does not mean everything's great in the economy or fiscal management (despite foolish Tory attempts to paint it otherwise), inflation heading towards 1% isn't great either as the ECBs much-too-late, desperate attempts to stoke inflation proves.

There should be inflation pressure should there not, if the economy was properly recovering?

And a cost-of-living crisis with inflation at 1.6%? How did Osborne get us into this mess? (Blinkered ideology is the answer of course)

How's EdM's socialist pal Hollande doing in France ?

Ed's pal in Washington is doing much better.

Pulpstar said:

CPI at 1.6%, RPI 2.5%.

With optimal inflation reckoned to be at 2%, this is pretty much BANG ON.

@BenM You do like to cry wolf alot - there are issues with this Gov't but these inflation figures are certainly no problem whatsoever.

The target is 2pc and despite interest rates at 0.5pc there is a large undershoot.

I didn't say we're in a deflationary spiral. Not yet anyway. Just put an alert out there.

We were hearing similar denials from the eurozone 6 months ago. If the recovery had substance inflation would be higher and yes interest rates would be starting to track higher too.

But there is no guts to this consumer debt, McJob driven recovery.

MaxPB said:

Financier said:

Average wages rates is an indication of the spare capacity in the UK.

We are still struggling to employ all the immigrants of the last 10+years, plus all those who are coming off incapacity benefits where they had been placed incorrectly by the last government.

The last one and the one before, Major/Thatcher started the incapacity benefit con, Blair and Brown just continued it. Whatever one might think of IDS, he has at least had the gumption to tackle incapacity benefit fraud.

Be fair, Mr.PB, didn't Labour set the ball rolling on that one.

For all Labour's cries of infamy several government policies were kicked off by Labour and merely continued by the coalition. One thinks for example of education reforms and introducing private providers into the NHS as well as starting to tackle welfare.

DavidL said:

The latest inflation figures don't prove much of themselves but do support the idea I was promoting yesterday of the Autumn Statement or March budget including another lift in the minimum wage. We need to get average wages rising again in real terms and to avoid deflation seeping into this country from the EZ.

Did not Osborne in his evidence to the Low Pay Commission state that he would like to see the minimum wage rise to around £7 per hour? It is of course the Commission that sets the rate and I think it would set a bad precedent for any government of whatever colour to over rule it.

Rexel56 said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

RobD said:

RobD said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. G, I'm not so sure.

Every party is marked by lukewarm support. Nobody gets enthusiastic about Cameron or Miliband, except in that the other might be worse, and Clegg's even less popular.

The public are against it and the parties have promised it won't happen. A u-turn would not break trust, it would confirm none of them are worthy of it. I cannot see it happening.

Even without the democratic aspect, the economic arguments against it (why should English, Welsh and Northern Irish taxpayers stand behind Scottish financial institutions?) are significant.

Salmond said he would view CU as just a stopgap in any case, which undermines the whole thing from the start. He'd break any agreement at the drop of a hat, so there is no point in negotiating with him.

Yeah, why bother with all the hassle in setting up a CU in the first place?

Oops, should have read the story better, he said using Sterling without a CU could be a viable stop-gap measure. He didn't elaborate on what would follow, however.

The Poond Scots, worth 5p.

I really don't understand why folks who are so contemptuous of Scotland, as evidenced by comments like this, wish to be in a political union with them never mind a currency union.

Laughable isn't it?

Lennon said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

As I've been saying for a while, I don't think interest rates are going to be increased anytime soon. The latest inflation figures provide additional evidence for that view. With the Eurozone flirting with outright deflation, the pound strong, and world commodity prices subdued, steady as she goes would seem to be the appropriate policy.

Note also: RPI 2.5%, and house prices easing off a smidgen.

Whilst I wouldn't disagree with that particularly, there is a valid school of thought that says that if things are good enough to enable you to increase rates without significant effect (even if you don't NEED to) you should do - as it is a way of 'reloading the gun' to provide you with ammunition for the future.

Things aren't good enough though, the state hasn't finished deleveraging so any rate rise will hit the economy very hard and government finances very hard. Until the deficit falls to below 2% of GDP interest rates will be anaemic. The government can't afford for gilt yields to rise above 3.5% for a sustained period as it will cause the interest bill to rise too rapidly and larger cuts will have to be made elsewhere to balance the budget. With the base rate at 0.5%, gilts that yield above 2% are a sound AAA/AA+ investment, with a 1.5% base rate they wouldn't be and gilt yields would naturally rise to around 4% as investors start looking elsewhere for returns.

Low interest rates also incentivise businesses to invest, a higher base rate would allow companies to sit on cash, at the moment cash in the bank gives practically no return.

In an economy such as ours low interest rates are absolutely key and until the state sector stops deleveraging we can't afford for them to rise. So the fall in inflation to 1.6% is good news. In fact a further fall could even be welcome as it may lead to further monetary stimulus to weaken the pound, though I think inflation at around 1.5% is optimal as it alleviates pretty much all the pressure to raise rates. Once the state has deleveraged then inflation will rise naturally and interest rates will follow. I don't think we will see rates above 2% for a very long time though, maybe after the next cycle, but not this time. Chinese wages are deflating again, so I expect that will play a key role in over the next few years as the cost of finished manufactured goods begins to fall again.

Rexel56 said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

RobD said:

RobD said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. G, I'm not so sure.

Every party is marked by lukewarm support. Nobody gets enthusiastic about Cameron or Miliband, except in that the other might be worse, and Clegg's even less popular.

The public are against it and the parties have promised it won't happen. A u-turn would not break trust, it would confirm none of them are worthy of it. I cannot see it happening.

Even without the democratic aspect, the economic arguments against it (why should English, Welsh and Northern Irish taxpayers stand behind Scottish financial institutions?) are significant.

Salmond said he would view CU as just a stopgap in any case, which undermines the whole thing from the start. He'd break any agreement at the drop of a hat, so there is no point in negotiating with him.

Yeah, why bother with all the hassle in setting up a CU in the first place?

Oops, should have read the story better, he said using Sterling without a CU could be a viable stop-gap measure. He didn't elaborate on what would follow, however.

The Poond Scots, worth 5p.

I really don't understand why folks who are so contemptuous of Scotland, as evidenced by comments like this, wish to be in a political union with them never mind a currency union.

Pique at their own political dependencies (e.g. 40-50 Scots Labour MPs) being shaken I'd guess.

HurstLlama said:

Neil said:

HurstLlama said:

t is of course the Commission that sets the rate and I think it would set a bad precedent for any government of whatever colour to over rule it.

It isnt the Commission that sets the rate. This Government has already overruled the Commission.

Is it not? I thought it was I must go and read it up. My apologies, Mr. Neil.

The Commission considers the evidence and recommends a rate. The SoS lays the order so you could say it is Government or Parliament that actually sets the rate. This Government has already deviated from the Commission's recommendation at least once.

Edit: actually rates - it wasnt the main rate that the Government didnt follow the recommendation on

MaxPB said:

Lennon said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

As I've been saying for a while, I don't think interest rates are going to be increased anytime soon. The latest inflation figures provide additional evidence for that view. With the Eurozone flirting with outright deflation, the pound strong, and world commodity prices subdued, steady as she goes would seem to be the appropriate policy.

Note also: RPI 2.5%, and house prices easing off a smidgen.

Whilst I wouldn't disagree with that particularly, there is a valid school of thought that says that if things are good enough to enable you to increase rates without significant effect (even if you don't NEED to) you should do - as it is a way of 'reloading the gun' to provide you with ammunition for the future.

Things aren't good enough though, the state hasn't finished deleveraging so any rate rise will hit the economy very hard and government finances very hard. Until the deficit falls to below 2% of GDP interest rates will be anaemic. The government can't afford for gilt yields to rise above 3.5% for a sustained period as it will cause the interest bill to rise too rapidly and larger cuts will have to be made elsewhere to balance the budget. With the base rate at 0.5%, gilts that yield above 2% are a sound AAA/AA+ investment, with a 1.5% base rate they wouldn't be and gilt yields would naturally rise to around 4% as investors start looking elsewhere for returns.

Low interest rates also incentivise businesses to invest, a higher base rate would allow companies to sit on cash, at the moment cash in the bank gives practically no return.

In an economy such as ours low interest rates are absolutely key and until the state sector stops deleveraging we can't afford for them to rise. So the fall in inflation to 1.6% is good news. In fact a further fall could even be welcome as it may lead to further monetary stimulus to weaken the pound, though I think inflation at around 1.5% is optimal as it alleviates pretty much all the pressure to raise rates. Once the state has deleveraged then inflation will rise naturally and interest rates will follow. I don't think we will see rates above 2% for a very long time though, maybe after the next cycle, but not this time. Chinese wages are deflating again, so I expect that will play a key role in over the next few years as the cost of finished manufactured goods begins to fall again.

Since when has this government started "deleveraging"?!!

BenM said:

Pulpstar said:

CPI at 1.6%, RPI 2.5%.

With optimal inflation reckoned to be at 2%, this is pretty much BANG ON.

@BenM You do like to cry wolf alot - there are issues with this Gov't but these inflation figures are certainly no problem whatsoever.

The target is 2pc and despite interest rates at 0.5pc there is a large undershoot.

I didn't say we're in a deflationary spiral. Not yet anyway. Just put an alert out there.

We were hearing similar denials from the eurozone 6 months ago. If the recovery had substance inflation would be higher and yes interest rates would be starting to track higher too.

But there is no guts to this consumer debt, McJob driven recovery.

I wonder what you would be saying if infaltion had gone up tp 3%, infaltion spirally out of control, failed chancellor etc. If he cured cancer you would still criticise him.

HurstLlama said:

DavidL said:

The latest inflation figures don't prove much of themselves but do support the idea I was promoting yesterday of the Autumn Statement or March budget including another lift in the minimum wage. We need to get average wages rising again in real terms and to avoid deflation seeping into this country from the EZ.

Did not Osborne in his evidence to the Low Pay Commission state that he would like to see the minimum wage rise to around £7 per hour? It is of course the Commission that sets the rate and I think it would set a bad precedent for any government of whatever colour to over rule it.

I don't like important economic decisions being delegated to the great and the good such as The Low Pay Commission. They can by all means have an important role in ingathering the evidence, objectively analysing it and even making recommendations but I have no problem at all with politicians saying thanks, but in my opinion we should do X. Of course politicians should then be held to account if X turns out to be disastrous.

For me, there is a legitimate complaint that those already in work are not benefitting from the recovery sufficiently. The increase in personal allowances helps as does the holding down of fuel duties etc but the complaint that the lower paid have disproportionately suffered seems right with benefit cuts aggravating the situation. Recognising that by increasing the Minimum Wage seems good economics, good policy (since it transfers more of the marginal cost of employment onto the employers and away from government) and good politics. I very much hope that George goes for it.

Rexel56 said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

RobD said:

RobD said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. G, I'm not so sure.

Every party is marked by lukewarm support. Nobody gets enthusiastic about Cameron or Miliband, except in that the other might be worse, and Clegg's even less popular.

The public are against it and the parties have promised it won't happen. A u-turn would not break trust, it would confirm none of them are worthy of it. I cannot see it happening.

Even without the democratic aspect, the economic arguments against it (why should English, Welsh and Northern Irish taxpayers stand behind Scottish financial institutions?) are significant.

Salmond said he would view CU as just a stopgap in any case, which undermines the whole thing from the start. He'd break any agreement at the drop of a hat, so there is no point in negotiating with him.

Yeah, why bother with all the hassle in setting up a CU in the first place?

Oops, should have read the story better, he said using Sterling without a CU could be a viable stop-gap measure. He didn't elaborate on what would follow, however.

The Poond Scots, worth 5p.

I really don't understand why folks who are so contemptuous of Scotland, as evidenced by comments like this, wish to be in a political union with them never mind a currency union.

The contempt aimed at and opprobrium poured on the SNP's cockamaney plan is well deserved.

There is no reason why Scotland can't be a successful, prosperous independent nation.

Provided it sets out on a decent prospectus - Project Fib has morphed into Project Farce and in desperation is lashing out with Project Fear.... The Tories will wreck something we already control and claimed we would protect in our 2011 manifesto....

CarlottaVance said:

Rexel56 said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

RobD said:

RobD said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. G, I'm not so sure.

Every party is marked by lukewarm support. Nobody gets enthusiastic about Cameron or Miliband, except in that the other might be worse, and Clegg's even less popular.

The public are against it and the parties have promised it won't happen. A u-turn would not break trust, it would confirm none of them are worthy of it. I cannot see it happening.

Even without the democratic aspect, the economic arguments against it (why should English, Welsh and Northern Irish taxpayers stand behind Scottish financial institutions?) are significant.

Salmond said he would view CU as just a stopgap in any case, which undermines the whole thing from the start. He'd break any agreement at the drop of a hat, so there is no point in negotiating with him.

Yeah, why bother with all the hassle in setting up a CU in the first place?

Oops, should have read the story better, he said using Sterling without a CU could be a viable stop-gap measure. He didn't elaborate on what would follow, however.

The Poond Scots, worth 5p.

I really don't understand why folks who are so contemptuous of Scotland, as evidenced by comments like this, wish to be in a political union with them never mind a currency union.

The contempt aimed at and opprobrium poured on the SNP's cockamaney plan is well deserved.

There is no reason why Scotland can't be a successful, prosperous independent nation.

Provided it sets out on a decent prospectus - Project Fib has morphed into Project Farce and in desperation is lashing out with Project Fear.... The Tories will wreck something we already control and claimed we would protect in our 2011 manifesto....

Well, I'm not convinced a decent prospectus would have found favour all around but I take your point... Why the NHS gambit I have no idea, Yes is failing due to an inability to explain a credible process to independence, even if there were to be righteous fury, about future NHS budgets, across the Scottish nation, the lack of a credible process to an independent state remains the problem with currency at the top of the list.

Richard_Nabavi said:

As I've been saying for a while, I don't think interest rates are going to be increased anytime soon. The latest inflation figures provide additional evidence for that view. With the Eurozone flirting with outright deflation, the pound strong, and world commodity prices subdued, steady as she goes would seem to be the appropriate policy.

Note also: RPI 2.5%, and house prices easing off a smidgen.

Those who previously felt congenitally predisposed to attack Osborne said growth was all down to a housing bubble and the economy would explode.
They have gone quiet. House prices are down, not least in the capital. Morgtgage lending is down. This is in no small measure due to new rules and stress tests by the Financial Conduct Authority. Osborne set up the FSA. He supported (probably instigated) the rules.
http://www.politicshome.com/uk/story/41764/sign_up_pro.html
Osborne is showing he is a good chancellor. If the critics heads are not exploding then their fantasy world is certainly imploding.

On the 'indyref'.
How reliable is Panelbase?
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/new-recruits-banned-by-panelbase-from-indyref-polls.1378556935
''The prominent group Panelbase has shut its polls to new members amid speculation about an "organised sign-up of Yes campaigners" trying to influence the outcome.'' (Sept 13)

surbiton said:

One important point, no commentators have raised. At least, I have not read anything about it. The point is Scottish bond yields post independence. Even in a currency union with the rUK, interest rates in Scotalnd will begin to diverge from the rUK. Euro countries have different bond yields as we know. Actually, I do not know which way it will go. Probably higher due to uncertainty.

It would be inevitable that Scottish bond rates would be considerably higher than those of rUK. The risk of default for a country which cannot print its own currency is inevitably higher. We have a political party in government who think that the solution to Scotland's problems is spending yet more public money and who have made a range of promises about how they would do that. The risks to the tax base, specifically the financial services and export industries are considerable. The importance of oil to the economy will increase volatility.

In time of course Scotland could establish a credit record, elect sane governments, rebalance their economy away from the public sector, either establish their own currency or join the euro and learn to live within its means. A counterbalance to the volatility of oil is that our economy would no longer be on the yoyo of London/SE England property prices which increases the volatility of the pound and, at least historically, has required the UK to have higher interest rates and a tendency to higher inflation.

But it would be a bumpy ride, no doubt about it.

Rexel56 said:

CarlottaVance said:

Rexel56 said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

RobD said:

RobD said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. G, I'm not so sure.

Every party is marked by lukewarm support. Nobody gets enthusiastic about Cameron or Miliband, except in that the other might be worse, and Clegg's even less popular.

The public are against it and the parties have promised it won't happen. A u-turn would not break trust, it would confirm none of them are worthy of it. I cannot see it happening.

Even without the democratic aspect, the economic arguments against it (why should English, Welsh and Northern Irish taxpayers stand behind Scottish financial institutions?) are significant.

Salmond said he would view CU as just a stopgap in any case, which undermines the whole thing from the start. He'd break any agreement at the drop of a hat, so there is no point in negotiating with him.

Yeah, why bother with all the hassle in setting up a CU in the first place?

Oops, should have read the story better, he said using Sterling without a CU could be a viable stop-gap measure. He didn't elaborate on what would follow, however.

The Poond Scots, worth 5p.

I really don't understand why folks who are so contemptuous of Scotland, as evidenced by comments like this, wish to be in a political union with them never mind a currency union.

The contempt aimed at and opprobrium poured on the SNP's cockamaney plan is well deserved.

There is no reason why Scotland can't be a successful, prosperous independent nation.

Provided it sets out on a decent prospectus - Project Fib has morphed into Project Farce and in desperation is lashing out with Project Fear.... The Tories will wreck something we already control and claimed we would protect in our 2011 manifesto....

Well, I'm not convinced a decent prospectus would have found favour all around but I take your point... Why the NHS gambit I have no idea, Yes is failing due to an inability to explain a credible process to independence, even if there were to be righteous fury, about future NHS budgets, across the Scottish nation, the lack of a credible process to an independent state remains the problem with currency at the top of the list.

Isn't the NHS an activity devolved to the Scottish parliament? If so then would independence make any difference?

Plus if 'privatisation' is the issue will an independent Scotland look to nationalise all the private GP surgeries?

DavidL said:

surbiton said:

One important point, no commentators have raised. At least, I have not read anything about it. The point is Scottish bond yields post independence. Even in a currency union with the rUK, interest rates in Scotalnd will begin to diverge from the rUK. Euro countries have different bond yields as we know. Actually, I do not know which way it will go. Probably higher due to uncertainty.

It would be inevitable that Scottish bond rates would be considerably higher than those of rUK. The risk of default for a country which cannot print its own currency is inevitably higher.

And yet Irish yields have been lower than UK yields in recent times.

surbiton said:

Rail fares: If the government subsidy in Europe is roughly the same as in the UK, why are our rail fares so high ? Are our rail companies inefficient or is it a licence to print money ?

Sadly a mix of both. It's not an easy problem to fix either, like water the railways allow for a regional monopoly, there is no competition and therefore no incentive to reduce prices. The franchise model is a busted flush and renationalisation will just increase the public subsidy to the railways. Whichever party gets in next time will have to have a look, but there are no easy answers.

Neil said:

DavidL said:

surbiton said:

One important point, no commentators have raised. At least, I have not read anything about it. The point is Scottish bond yields post independence. Even in a currency union with the rUK, interest rates in Scotalnd will begin to diverge from the rUK. Euro countries have different bond yields as we know. Actually, I do not know which way it will go. Probably higher due to uncertainty.

It would be inevitable that Scottish bond rates would be considerably higher than those of rUK. The risk of default for a country which cannot print its own currency is inevitably higher.

And yet Irish yields have been lower than UK yields in recent times.

The Irish government budget was not dependent on volatile returns from a dying oil and gas sector. If one of the major oil fields were to experience some down time it could cause a major shock to the Scottish government budget, while for the UK it would not. That would have to be priced in.

MaxPB said:

surbiton said:

Rail fares: If the government subsidy in Europe is roughly the same as in the UK, why are our rail fares so high ? Are our rail companies inefficient or is it a licence to print money ?

Sadly a mix of both. It's not an easy problem to fix either, like water the railways allow for a regional monopoly, there is no competition and therefore no competition to reduce prices. The franchise model is a busted flush and renationalisation will just increase the public subsidy to the railways. Whichever party gets in next time will have to have a look, but there are no easy answers.

The DofT commissioned a report on this very question; have a look at the McNulty report it makes interesting reading.

Neil said:

DavidL said:

surbiton said:

One important point, no commentators have raised. At least, I have not read anything about it. The point is Scottish bond yields post independence. Even in a currency union with the rUK, interest rates in Scotalnd will begin to diverge from the rUK. Euro countries have different bond yields as we know. Actually, I do not know which way it will go. Probably higher due to uncertainty.

It would be inevitable that Scottish bond rates would be considerably higher than those of rUK. The risk of default for a country which cannot print its own currency is inevitably higher.

And yet Irish yields have been lower than UK yields in recent times.

But Ireland has the ECB which can intervene and remove the currency risk (and even arguably the default risk) and it has gone through the steps I have described to establish its credit rating. It is not starting from scratch.

Also, I agree with those that point out that very low bond rates are not necessarily something to be proud of. They suggest an economy where opportunities for investment are poor, where there is a good deal of caution and people fear the worst. This has been driving rates in many of the EZ countries including Ireland although it is doing a lot better than most, partly because unlike us its major export market (us) is quite buoyant.

DavidL said:

Neil said:

DavidL said:

surbiton said:

One important point, no commentators have raised. At least, I have not read anything about it. The point is Scottish bond yields post independence. Even in a currency union with the rUK, interest rates in Scotalnd will begin to diverge from the rUK. Euro countries have different bond yields as we know. Actually, I do not know which way it will go. Probably higher due to uncertainty.

It would be inevitable that Scottish bond rates would be considerably higher than those of rUK. The risk of default for a country which cannot print its own currency is inevitably higher.

And yet Irish yields have been lower than UK yields in recent times.

But Ireland has the ECB which can intervene and remove the currency risk (and even arguably the default risk) and it has gone through the steps I have described to establish its credit rating. It is not starting from scratch.

Also, I agree with those that point out that very low bond rates are not necessarily something to be proud of. They suggest an economy where opportunities for investment are poor, where there is a good deal of caution and people fear the worst. This has been driving rates in many of the EZ countries including Ireland although it is doing a lot better than most, partly because unlike us its major export market (us) is quite buoyant.

Oh and the ECB has shagged the Irish several times over as they struggled to cope with their debt mountain.

surbiton said:

Rail fares: If the government subsidy in Europe is roughly the same as in the UK, why are our rail fares so high ? Are our rail companies inefficient or is it a licence to print money ?

Can I have a linky for that assertion please? And what is roughly the same? The total subsidy, the subsidy per passenger journey? The subsidy per passenger mile?

Then there is the next question: comparatively speaking, are our rail fares higher?

JackW said:

Posted by KW for JackW

BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****

The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Change from 5th August Projection) :

Con 314 (+2) .. Lab 273 (-3) .. LibDem 32 (+2) .. SNP 8 (-1) .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 1 .. Respect 0 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1

Conservatives 12 seats short of a majority
Labour 53 seats short of a majority
......................................................................................

JackW doesn't know his ARSE from the Sunil on Sunday's ELBOW*!

(*published Sunday evening and re-posted yesterday afternoon)

@DavidL

I was only pointing out that a country that cant print its own currency can have lower bond rates than one that can.

DavidL said:

Also, I agree with those that point out that very low bond rates are not necessarily something to be proud of. They suggest an economy where opportunities for investment are poor, where there is a good deal of caution and people fear the worst.

I remember the ridicule Balls used to come in for here when he used a similar line.

Total crap, bring back Avery, at least his spinning was funny.

Osborne has totally failed to make the impression on the deficit any proper conservative should.

Consequently he now has no money to give to the strivers whose votes win elections.

His complete failure on the deficit probably explains why he is in thrall to those at the treasury who think its a good idea to confiscate money without a court order. To shut down tax breaks on pensions for short term gain. Those who think that when the state has failed, citizens should be penalised to make up for it.

Osborne is the reason the tories are toxic. Even his own MPs are against him. See Mark Field in City am today.

DavidL said:

They were given too low interest rates and inadequate banking controls for years which distorted their economies driving housing booms and doubtful investment because Germany had its inflation under control and did not need higher interest rates.

This is why the [apparently successful] use of market restrictions by the FCA to control house price growth in the UK is so interesting, as the UK experience outside the Euro was not really dramatically better. We had interest rates that were too high for most of the economy, but too low to avoid a house price boom.

If we have definitively abandoned a fixation with an entirely "free" market in mortgages, so that we can use sensible restrictions to control house price growth, and so not distort interest rates, then it would be a very helpful development for the long-term health of the UK economy.

OblitusSumMe said:

DavidL said:

They were given too low interest rates and inadequate banking controls for years which distorted their economies driving housing booms and doubtful investment because Germany had its inflation under control and did not need higher interest rates.

This is why the [apparently successful] use of market restrictions by the FCA to control house price growth in the UK is so interesting, as the UK experience outside the Euro was not really dramatically better. We had interest rates that were too high for most of the economy, but too low to avoid a house price boom.

If we have definitively abandoned a fixation with an entirely "free" market in mortgages, so that we can use sensible restrictions to control house price growth, and so not distort interest rates, then it would be a very helpful development for the long-term health of the UK economy.

Agreed but I think it is a little early to call Mission Accomplished on that one.

I was trying to find it but I read somewhere in the last week that the UK performance since the formation of the euro was actually pretty stellar despite having the worst recession and a slow recovery.

surbiton said:

Pulpstar said:

GBP definitely strengthening

GBP vs USD

Official HMRC monthly rates

April 1.6628
May 1.6778
June 1.6878
July 1.6938
August 1.7042

EUR

April 1.1954
May 1.2132
June 1.2352
July 1.248
August 1.2658

OK So ? Go through the last 50 years, it has gone up and down.

It'll be keeping inflation down at the moment as it eliminates import inflation.

My preferred solution for the railways would be to have them state run and commuter season tickets sold at the revenue maximisation point.

currystar said:

BenM said:

Pulpstar said:

CPI at 1.6%, RPI 2.5%.

With optimal inflation reckoned to be at 2%, this is pretty much BANG ON.

@BenM You do like to cry wolf alot - there are issues with this Gov't but these inflation figures are certainly no problem whatsoever.

The target is 2pc and despite interest rates at 0.5pc there is a large undershoot.

I didn't say we're in a deflationary spiral. Not yet anyway. Just put an alert out there.

We were hearing similar denials from the eurozone 6 months ago. If the recovery had substance inflation would be higher and yes interest rates would be starting to track higher too.

But there is no guts to this consumer debt, McJob driven recovery.

I wonder what you would be saying if infaltion had gone up tp 3%, infaltion spirally out of control, failed chancellor etc. If he cured cancer you would still criticise him.

Nope, because just as I'm not a hysteric on the national debt, I'm not hysterical about moderate inflation either. Especially if we were seeing a real recovery.

taffys said:

Total crap, bring back Avery, at least his spinning was funny.

Osborne has totally failed to make the impression on the deficit any proper conservative should.

Consequently he now has no money to give to the strivers whose votes win elections.

His complete failure on the deficit probably explains why he is in thrall to those at the treasury who think its a good idea to confiscate money without a court order. To shut down tax breaks on pensions for short term gain. Those who think that when the state has failed, citizens should be penalised to make up for it.

Osborne is the reason the tories are toxic. Even his own MPs are against him. See Mark Field in City am today.

The conservatives have a particularly poor record on the deficit.

So why you Tories still expect a different outcome to the shambles we're witnessing is bizarre.

Pulpstar said:

My preferred solution for the railways would be to have them state run and commuter season tickets sold at the revenue maximisation point.

There should be a formula linking season ticket prices to the distance travelled and the income of the person buying the ticket. Just like VAT, travel costs have a regressive impact on disposable income.

I think multiple operators on a single line could work, it may introduce some confusion, but it would also bring in real competition. Having Virgin run the ECML and First run the WCML both exclusively means very little in terms of direct competition, that only happens when the franchises come up for renewal and at that point the company who makes the most outrageously cynical promises tends to win (see Govia/GoAhead winning recently).

Introducing actual competition has to be the key to fixing our railways, that or a fully nationalised sector with no competition and centrally set pricing. Of those the former is surely better.

If both Virgin and First ran alternating services on the ECML with Virgin offering tickets for £30 each way and First at £25 each way, that's competition. People can use airports without any difficulty and you get hundreds of airlines leaving from the same port there, I think it wouldn't be too difficult to get people to adjust to multiple train operators running the same routes. It is because of Ryanair and Easyjet that short haul flights are so much cheaper than they used to be, if the government had stepped in back then and told Easyjet and Ryanair that the existing routes BA ran were exclusive to BA and they they would have to wait until BA's licence ran out to bid for them, air travel would be as expensive as they have ever been.