How GE2019 would have been with the new boundaries – politicalbetting.com
How GE2019 would have been with the new boundaries – politicalbetting.com
Above is the main analysis from Electoral Calculus on the impact of the new boundaries. The table seeks to show what would have happened at GE2019 if these boundaries were in place.
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Corbyn really did bequeath Starmer a toxic legacy.
Given that the Liberal Democrats (outside Orkney & Shetland) only win seats thanks to the magic of unionist tactical voting, then they may be able to repeat the trick in 2024 in whatever the successor to North East Fife is. Pulling the same trick off in the Highlands will be harder.
Screaming lay.
That being said, it makes relatively little difference to the maths for Labour Majority, as the increase in Tory seats (when on a 44% vote share) is balanced out by some fairly chunky losses should the Conservative vote drop below about 35%.
*For the avoidance of doubt, that is a joke.
Probably.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/elections/electoralregistration/bulletins/electoralstatisticsforuk/march2020
Ynys Mon is only slightly too small at 52k as will the two IoW seats at 56k. Only the two Scottish seats are much smaller than target.
This, I think, increases the range in which there is no possible government to command a majority.
Secondly, I think there is a chance that the LD performance in areas of the south east will bear no relation to overall polling if there is a successful movement in 20-30 Remain seats where they are a strong second to topple the Tories.
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1450491180366565391
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41437-020-00370-0
(I seem to recall Hull and Norwich being very good, but I can't remember the details. And there are of course seats I'm trying to forget.)
https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/uk/uk-politics/next-uk-general-election/229577000/all-markets
(My final post on this topic today!)
PS: not trying to explain cpDNA to you - just providing wider context for others!
Cheap electricity solves a lot of our problems.
Conservatives to get an increased majority 2/1
Not exactly much value there, is there?
That's definitely a market where they're only offering one side of the bet at those odds.
Perhaps @shadsy might consider putting something on Smarkets?
Note too that the parties most hit proportionally are the LDs and PC
He reminds me a lot of Cameron: Massively underestimated by those in his own party that would rather have someone else, and derided by his opponents because they are simply too tribal or plain stupid to realise that he might just make it.
ladbrokes aren’t offering it, though. Typical bookie.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/18/business/fusion-energy.html
If Starmer does become PM it is much more likely that he would do so via the Cameron 2010 route than the Blair 1997 route, just most likely with the SNP added onto the LDs too
And Starmer is hugely dishonest and opportunistic. The editor of Socialist Challenge in his youth, then sitting in Jeremy Corbyn's Shadow Cabinet, then running as a Corbynista for the Labour leadership, now pretending to be a centrist. So while I don't think Johnson has much if any credibility after all his opportunistic U-turns, I don't think Starmer has much if any more, and arguably considerably less.
Cameron wasn't underestimated. He led in the polls consistently for all but 3 months of his leadership from when he became Leader of the Opposition, to when he became Prime Minister. Only for a small 3 month window was he not in the lead.
Chart
Starmer has never achieved crossover to lead in the polls for the rolling average. Not once.
Chart
Starmer isn't remotely in the same league as Cameron.
Blair was a salesman. Cameron was also a salesman, to a lesser extent. Starmer doesn't appear to be one - and he needs to sell his vision for the country, to both the country and his own party.
(*) Write Once, Read Never. A common form of computer documentation.
Lots of EU- words are from this Ancient Greek "good" origin. But not Europe (from the Phoenician erob - meaning 'where the sun sets')
eulogy - good words (from λόγος, lógos)
euthanasia - good death (from θάνατος, thánatos)
euphemism - good voice (from φήμη, phḗmē)
eugenics - good breeding (from γίγνομαι, gígnomai)
euphoria - good bearing (from φέρειν, phérein)
... and then a Carrington event would send us all back to the stone age ...
You're rewriting history to say he was underestimated. He wasn't, he was consistently topping the polls. Starmer isn't. Not remotely the same thing.
https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/furious-motorist-drives-into-eco-protesters-blocking-road-near-dartford-crossing/
This is going to get serious if the coppers' bosses don't start enforcing the law.
What happens when the first IB nutter gets themselves killed?
Insulate Britain protestor getting tied to a railing with his own banner.
Clearly given the effect of the boundary changes then in that scenario the initial parliament would be badly hung, such that the SNP would effectively be able to hold Starmer to ransom. I am sure that is in Sturgeon's planning - prop up a Labour minority government only if she gets a new vote on secession. In those circumstances, rather than prolong the agony (aka May in 2018/19), Starmer would I think call the SNP's bluff. That is, put forward a progressive popular programme without giving an inch to SNP constitutional demands, resulting in the SNP following the Conservatives into the lobby on an immediate vote of confidence which Starmer would lose. The fallout would I think then offer the prospect of at least a modest Labour recovery in Scotland at the ensuing general election, the "Tartan Tories" label of 1979 having some renewed resonance. (I am assuming in all this that the Conservatives will by then have changed the FTPA sufficiently to avoid a repeat of the 2019 zombie parliament.)
The other development, after a hung GE, could be some formal tactical cooperation between Labour and the LDs at the ensuing GE, with both coming to a pact to stand down candidates at the second GE. That would distribute both Labour and LD votes more effectively.
That route I think offers the best prospect of a relatively stable Labour minority government that could survive for a parliamentary term with LD support, either in coalition or via C&S. A majority Labour government will I think still be out of reach.
That being said... the LDs in Scotland are expert at persuading people that "Only They Can Beat The SNP". And I'm sure they will persuade a fair number of unionists who were formerly in Glenrothes or Ochil & South Perthshire to go Yellow.
The boundary changes in the Highlands are much more extensive, and that will be much harder for them.
Cameron led in the polls the entire time he was Leader of the Opposition, apart from a very brief interregnum while Brown became PM.
They've made their point. Now stop.
Conservatives Do Not Win Most Seats 6/4!
The people who voted Conservative last time are a disparate bunch. The wild fluctuations on Conservative policy under Johnson's leadership is bound to upset many previous Tory voters. He cannot possibly keep them together, especially now there is no longer a bogeyman to whip them in.
But Political Calculus does not take into account local factors - it is just a broad mathematical model and entirely impersonal (unless it has changed, of course). If we want to know what is going to happen in a particular seat, we need to look at the local campaign and the strength of the local organisation. A good proxy for this is the result of recent local elections. DYOR
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/58968444
In case you hadn't noticed, times are a little different now from when Cameron was LoTO. The Tory Party had also already been reformed and the nutters (who are now largely in charge of the Tory Party) were largely silent. You are so partisan you desperately want Starmer to be rubbish. He isn't, but keep believing it if it makes you happy!
Dark Blue DC GP, Light Blue DC NS
Red Labour PM GP, Pink Labour PM NS
We need a hideous scientific experiment where the two are merged together. Starson or Johnmer.
(I actually quite like Starson. Very sci-fi)
https://twitter.com/janemerrick23/status/1450500948720291843?s=20
Delta is the UK's dominant variant, but latest official data suggests 6% of Covid cases that have been genetically sequenced are of a new type.
AY.4.2, which some are calling "Delta Plus", contains mutations that might give the virus survival advantages.
Tests are under way to understand how much of a threat it may pose.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58965650
Miliband and Sir Keir always seem like they are earnestly whining about it being so unfair to me; maybe it's just the lack of gravitas in their voices. They seem like kids complaining about their parents, in comparison to the last couple of LotOs who became PM
Such limited value as there is for a bet over 2 years away is undoubtedly on a Tory majority (+325), which should be about evens, and is slightly odds against, though I would expect that to lengthen further after a brutal winter of inflation, supply problems, reality and Covid.
Nearer an election I would expect Tory odds to shorten again once they go into election attack mode. It is very obvious they are keeping their powder dry, and they are not short of material.
I shall throw up if he gets elected again.
Monroe "if we had a child, imagine: it could have your brains and my looks"
Einstein: "Yes, but it might equally have your brains and my looks"
(or something like that!)
I heard a rumour from my fellow Yoons on twitter that Nippy is thinking of doing a SF and removing their MPs from Parliament.
Popcorn time all round if you as me.
So Cameron was certainly nowhere near the leads Blair had before he became PM and trailed both Brown and Blair in a number of polls, certainly until Osborne's IHT cut proposal at the October 2007 Tory conference and the 2008 crash
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2010_United_Kingdom_general_election
I quit the Tory Party already. So especially now but even when in it, I'd quite like an Opposition that could hold the Government to account.
It isn't healthy for the nation to have only one credible party of Government and that's the situation we are in now sadly and Starmer has not changed that.
He hasn't even attempted to set out an alternative vision for the country. Blair did, Cameron did, Boris did.
Starmer just seems to want to win by default. Simply not being Corbyn and not being Boris may be enough for those who are set in their own views already and regard the PM as a "clown". But it isn't enough to become Prime Minister. He needs to do the hard work and that isn't happening.
This dude here.
https://twitter.com/willcllr?lang=en
I once went in his car when campaigning in Enfield and campaigned in a by election in his ward, he is no longer on the council
He was rather vociferous in his views, I believe the suspension was when he asked whether the Turkish family of a Labour councillor had “brought a classroom with them.” Although he is BME rather than white nationalist
https://enfielddispatch.co.uk/by-election-called-after-independent-kicked-off-council/
However voting SNP is pretty stupid if you want no change.
I guess you could say - Half of Scots are Morons