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The first polling has BoJo’s speech rated lower than Starmer’s – politicalbetting.com
The first polling has BoJo’s speech rated lower than Starmer’s – politicalbetting.com
Exclusive: Voters think Keir Starmer's speech was better than Boris Johnson's – new poll for Opiniumhttps://t.co/kcZlnbqEkM pic.twitter.com/UWpB7nH42a
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Absolute no inside information either.
Neil Henderson
@hendopolis
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4m
METRO: Build back banter #TomorrowsPapersToday
After that you get immune to these things.
Edit - I also once partook in a focus group about Scottish independence in the summer of 2014.
Andrew Lilico
@andrew_lilico
·
39s
When is China going to take over Taiwan?
https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1445853899915681797
Erm... Nope.
That said, I'll be surprised if the Tories get a bounce. The entire nation is distracted, understandably. That will suit the Tories just fine. They are ahead, mid term, despite very heavy weather, and Boris has given more of a fillip to his troops than Starmer gave to his
I’m told Oliver Dowden told a Yorkshire Tories reception not to rule out a winter poll, as turn-out would be lower for Labour. Next election in Dec 2023?
https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1445855194655313921
He even did a runner from Andrew Neil. He prefers photo-stunts to real discussion of policy.
"More people even thought Sir Keir was interesting, with 41% saying that about his speech."
I find it interesting that Starmer's boring number isn't there
More like May 2022.
Seriously though, Labour need to get cracking on setting their core vote up as postal ballots.
PS: Anecdote: my local petrol station was closed again today. No fuel. It opens for a few hours, long queues, sells out, closes again until it restocks. It is a fairly small petrol station. Same cycle now for 10 days. I must be very unlucky.
That's Johnson's brand, which means there's nothing there now apart from anecdotes, slogans and narratives.
Which I think is what Cummings is thinking of when he says Johnson is unfit for office. Cummings is malign in my view but he is results driven and a good project manager. His slogans "take back control", "get Brexit done" etc served a purpose - to get majorities for Leave and the Conservatives. Now the slogans and narratives are the end purpose.
Was useful for PB purposes as well.
I should clarify the Scottish Independence focus group was an England & Wales thing asking how we felt about the referendum and what the result would mean for us.
If they had forced them to sit through all 90 minutes of Starmer's desperate if wrothy droneathon then I reckon the stats would be very different
I don't think either of these speeches will shift the dial. But Boris made me laugh
I see the usual Scottish Independence Referendum arguments are being rehashed again. As long as Sturgeon continues to lead the SNP, there won’t be a referendum, or even a request for one.
Assuming Sturgeon is still SNP leader at the time of the next General Election, I can forsee three things happening.
Some SNP voters will switch to Alba.
Some will return to Labour.
Some will stay at home.
If this happens, how many seats will the SNP lose? My estimate is that they will lose around 10 seats to Labour and fail to win any seats from any of the other parties.
Would it be enough for Sturgeon to be replaced?
Would it be enough to prevent another Conservative government?
Not good for Johnson.
I thought his many shout outs to Cabinet Members interesting, as I don't remember as many references in Starmer's speech, though they may have slipped by.
Overall C+. It got the job done, nothing obviously wrong with it. But I'd not have known the theme was 'Build Back Better' without it written in front of him.
It's hard to draw many conclusions without knowing what clips were chosen
Either you show the voters the snatches they actually get on TV news, or show the whole thing. Who decides the "edit" they get to view? What bits do the pollsters choose, and why?
Absurd. Voodoo polling. Ignore
Yes, we all have mothers and they will all die. It's poor timing for a heckler to pick a moment when he's talking about that though, even if that was not the point they were heckling about.
Will he be able to deliver? Who knows, certainly not on all of it but maybe on some. If he does he will have done better than most of his recent predecessors. The message from his speech is that this is not a government blundering around not knowing what it wants to do. I think he succeeded in that.
What I got from the speech was not that the Tories want to change the country for the better, but to impress upon people that they are still energetic and coming up with ideas (he talked about 'tired old Labour'), rather than a sclerotic 11 year old government paddling along.
(This might turn into a bee in my bonnet. Without getting too Reithian about it, a nation where most adults are exposed to a news bulletin which at least aspires to be broadly balanced is likely to be better-run than one where they aren't. No way of solving that problem, of course, but hey ho.)
It takes an awful lot to yank the dial these days. Dom in Durham might not have done it had we not all been stuck at home at the time it came out.
1 He's serious about kicking out the Left
2 He's a hypocrite (2nd vote stuff)
3 He's humourless and dull
4 He has no policies - yet
5 He's got a backbone
6 He understands the need for Labour to seem patriotic, and he personally is patriotic
7 He'd probably be a decent prime minister, but his party is still badly divided
Seven messages I got from Boris:
1 He's serious about "levelling up" - but WTF is it?
2 He's a pretty shameless dissembler
3 He's still funny and he's regained his vim
4 He has no new policies, right now
5 He's adored by his party even tho he waffles
6 He understands the need for Tories to keep winning the WWC
7 He's probably going to win the next GE
So today in Sainsbury's about half of vegetable lines were out of stock, one third of meat, one half of milk types, which is unusual. Not much bread, but that might be end of day. Most dry goods available. Fairly typical, but it wasn't like this before.
Yet my older daughter liked it: she adores archaeology
Boris to win #GE2023. Might be Spring 2024
https://e3.365dm.com/21/10/2048x1152/skynews-graph-fuel_5536612.png?bypass-service-worker&20211006065839
A Meh movie can be much harder to take than something actually bad, which can at least entertain. And it's not because I wanted it to be Indiana Jones.
I'm going with seven.
So, that's probably four votes for Mr Starmer and three for Mr Johnson.
Ours will rise by 90%. (It probably already has as PFP have gone bust and we're being transferred to BG.)
My mum's will rise by 37.6% and my father-in-law's will rise by 35.2%, although these aren't until next spring and summer respectively.
I suspect our situation is extreme - we got a really good deal last November which was due to run out next month anyway.
But the impact of these sort of increases over the coming year is going to be very uncomfortable for a lot of people. It will also suck money out of the economy and stoke inflation of course.
Just an observation - I am not expecting anyone to get the violins out for us. ;-)
The trick in the under the radar social media targetted ads has been to blame Labour Councils for Nationa Government policies.
So "lack of funding for the NHS" is blamed on the local Labour Council.
It has shown to be remarkably effective.
Whether it can work at a second election in a row will be interesting to see...
I think rather early to see if Johnsons Chutzpah carries on. There is too the small matter of the economy, which does look rather fragile, infested with inflation and lacking in confidence.
I think quite a major market correction is on its way this autumn. In part domestic, but both the Chinese and American situations look dicey to me too. I have cashed in my more exposed equities until I see which way the wind is blowing.
I also don't know if Patel has a powerbase in the party. One of the slightly unique things about this government is that the three most senior Cabinet ministers (Truss, Patel, Sunak) are all fairly new to the jobs, and haven't built up loyal followings in Parliament or the country. Nor are any of them leaders of a strand of conservative thinking.
https://twitter.com/louisducdanjou
"I've had to wait 4 years for my hip operation, thanks to my Labour council", and stuff like that.
No normal people will either.
People are worried about fuel, gas, electricity, economic recovery, their jobs, Covid and Christmas.
They couldn't give a rat's ass about party conference speeches.
Truss would be the candidate of the libertarian right, Sunak the candidate of the Tory centre and Tory left
Could have saved you some time...