Labour has a bigger problem in seeking power than Scotland: the Midlands…. – politicalbetting.com

kle4 said:

Seeing stories on Fury-Joshua et al, am I the only one who finds Boxers engaging in trash talk to be really boring and tiresome? I can't figure out if they mean it, because they get all worked up, which I guess I get but just looks childish, or they just go through the motions as it is part of building a narrative for a fight, in which case it is just childish and boring. Sure, personality is needed to make things more interesting, but I don't know how effective it really is at building hype - wrestling would be the place to go if trash talk is wanted.

MarqueeMark said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Jonathan said:

Brexit, inflation and now British Rail is back. It’s the 70s, but with shit music and films.

Golden age of TV though.

Black and White Minstrels, Wheeltappers and Shunters, Love Thy Neighbour, Mind Your Language....watch the little woke heads explode at that telly line up!

Philip_Thompson said:

Jonathan said:

williamglenn said:

Rail services to come under unified state control

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57176858

"The government has announced the biggest shake-up in the UK's railways since privatisation in the mid-1990s. The reform plan will see the creation of a new state-owned body, Great British Railways (GBR), which will own and manage rail infrastructure."

Boris brings back British Rail.

Expect a decline in rail passenger numbers from now on.

HYUFD said:

The Midlands is now moving from a marginal region to the Tories safest region due to its strong Brexit vote (bar a few Remain areas like Warwick and Leamington which used to be marginal but are now Labour).

Indeed, of the top 100 Labour target seats it would need to gain in 2024 to be able to form a government, just 19 are in the East or West Midlands. By contrast there are now 18 seats in London, the South and South West in the top 100 Labour target seats, almost as many as the traditionally bellwether Midlands.

Instead the new bellwether swing area is now the North, which thanks to the Red Wall has moved from safe Labour to the key swing region. In fact 32 of the top 100 Labour target seats, almost a third, come from the North East, the North West or Yorkshire and Humber.

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/labour

Philip_Thompson said:

Chameleon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Hmmm......and people were worried about having to deep in with your vaccine passport for the pub....

Holiday 'police' to knock on your door: As hopes rise for full freedom in June, Priti Patel reveals plans for up to 10,000 quarantine checks EVERY day to make sure Britons returning from abroad are in isolation

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9597685/Priti-Patel-reveals-plans-10-000-quarantine-checks-day.html

There is a strong chance that I'm being stupid, but I don't get traveller quarantine post herd immunity.

A traveller can return as one of three states:

1) No covid, no problem

2) With a covid strain unresistant to vaccines, which is no problem.

3) With a covid strain that largely escapes vaccines, which is a problem.

Under current rules the isolation period is shorter than the incubation period, and naturally porous via family members/ some people not isolating properly so no matter how many rona police there are some will escape the net. Lets be *extremely* generous and assume that quarantine/test & release prevents 95% of cases imported going on to infect someone else vs every single imported case infecting at least 1 other person without quarantine.

R of Kentish/Indian Covid seems to be somewhere between 3-6 in a population that largely isn't social distancing and doesn't have rules in place.

Lets give a rough estimate of 1m people entering and leaving the country every week this summer (which is low), and say 0.05% have vaccine resistant COVID (500 cases per week), using the assumptions above all bar 25 of the cases imported per week would be stopped under current rules, only issue is that in one generation those 25 cases (among a vulnerable population) would have a R of ~4/5 (generation 1: 113, generation 2: 506), so at most quarantine buys us 20 days head start.

If a vaccine resistant strain emerges it *will* find it's way in unless we shut our borders completely, so the current isolation rules seem to impose maximum cost while giving us extremely limited benefits.

Because you're viewing it as a boolean state of "its out" or "its in" and if "its in" then there's nothing we can do about it.

If a problem variant comes in then its better to have those cases at a low number that can be suppressed and not simply (at this stage) give up and let it rip.

In March 2020 we were struggling to do thousands of tests per day, now we can do a million plus tests per day. If limited outbreaks occur then surge testing etc can squish it, which isn't the case if its just letting it run wild without a care. 20 days head start is absolutely massive.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Big Sam is stepping down from West Brom.

LostPassword said:

I've had a play on electoral calculus to get a rough idea of how the electoral geography affects things.

A 3.2% swing denies the Tories a majority, leaving them ahead 324-237.

If you put Labour and Tory level on votes, a 5.85% swing, then the Tories lead by 284-272 on seats.

If you swap the 2019GE vote shares, so Labour lead 44.7-33.0 with a 11.7% swing, then Labour win 324-226, just short of a majority.

If you give Labour a vote lead of 14.8%, equal to the largest lead that either party has had since WWII (in 1983), then Labour do have a majority, 344-207.

You have to give Labour a lead of 17.7% until they reach a majority of 80-something, as the Tories have now.

On the face of it, the current electoral geography is shockingly bad for Labour.

CatMan said:

MarqueeMark said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Jonathan said:

Brexit, inflation and now British Rail is back. It’s the 70s, but with shit music and films.

Golden age of TV though.

Black and White Minstrels, Wheeltappers and Shunters, Love Thy Neighbour, Mind Your Language....watch the little woke heads explode at that telly line up!

Don't forget Some Mothers Do 'Ave 'Em. Also I would say Curry & Chips, but that was 1969.

MarqueeMark said:

dixiedean said:

MarqueeMark said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Jonathan said:

Brexit, inflation and now British Rail is back. It’s the 70s, but with shit music and films.

Golden age of TV though.

Black and White Minstrels, Wheeltappers and Shunters, Love Thy Neighbour, Mind Your Language....watch the little woke heads explode at that telly line up!

Chuck in every other show presented by Jimmy Saville or Rolf Harris.
You wouldn't have to be woke for that.

So - the Seventies Golden Age of Telly was - The Sweeney?

dixiedean said:

LostPassword said:

I've had a play on electoral calculus to get a rough idea of how the electoral geography affects things.

A 3.2% swing denies the Tories a majority, leaving them ahead 324-237.

If you put Labour and Tory level on votes, a 5.85% swing, then the Tories lead by 284-272 on seats.

If you swap the 2019GE vote shares, so Labour lead 44.7-33.0 with a 11.7% swing, then Labour win 324-226, just short of a majority.

If you give Labour a vote lead of 14.8%, equal to the largest lead that either party has had since WWII (in 1983), then Labour do have a majority, 344-207.

You have to give Labour a lead of 17.7% until they reach a majority of 80-something, as the Tories have now.

On the face of it, the current electoral geography is shockingly bad for Labour.

Indeed it is. But, as others have said, that can turn.
It did between the 2005 and 2015 elections.

LostPassword said:

I've had a play on electoral calculus to get a rough idea of how the electoral geography affects things.

A 3.2% swing denies the Tories a majority, leaving them ahead 324-237.

If you put Labour and Tory level on votes, a 5.85% swing, then the Tories lead by 284-272 on seats.

If you swap the 2019GE vote shares, so Labour lead 44.7-33.0 with a 11.7% swing, then Labour win 324-226, just short of a majority.

If you give Labour a vote lead of 14.8%, equal to the largest lead that either party has had since WWII (in 1983), then Labour do have a majority, 344-207.

You have to give Labour a lead of 17.7% until they reach a majority of 80-something, as the Tories have now.

On the face of it, the current electoral geography is shockingly bad for Labour.

Time_to_Leave said:

Gallowgate said:

williamglenn said:

Rail services to come under unified state control

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57176858

"The government has announced the biggest shake-up in the UK's railways since privatisation in the mid-1990s. The reform plan will see the creation of a new state-owned body, Great British Railways (GBR), which will own and manage rail infrastructure."

Is this just a rebrand of Network Rail, or something more?

It’s much more. At the minute, many rail franchises have to run their services using what passengers pay them. They of course price in the implied risk of that.

This takes that away and runs the whole thing via the Government, with companies paid a flat fee to run each service. Structured correctly, if it works, they will then of course be held to account for trains running properly, which is the bit they claim to be good at.

It’s a good idea and the right balance. Can’t possibly have been dreamt up by a politician.

Time_to_Leave said:

Gallowgate said:

williamglenn said:

Rail services to come under unified state control

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57176858

"The government has announced the biggest shake-up in the UK's railways since privatisation in the mid-1990s. The reform plan will see the creation of a new state-owned body, Great British Railways (GBR), which will own and manage rail infrastructure."

Is this just a rebrand of Network Rail, or something more?

It’s much more. At the minute, many rail franchises have to run their services using what passengers pay them. They of course price in the implied risk of that.

This takes that away and runs the whole thing via the Government, with companies paid a flat fee to run each service. Structured correctly, if it works, they will then of course be held to account for trains running properly, which is the bit they claim to be good at.

It’s a good idea and the right balance. Can’t possibly have been dreamt up by a politician.

MarqueeMark said:

dixiedean said:

LostPassword said:

I've had a play on electoral calculus to get a rough idea of how the electoral geography affects things.

A 3.2% swing denies the Tories a majority, leaving them ahead 324-237.

If you put Labour and Tory level on votes, a 5.85% swing, then the Tories lead by 284-272 on seats.

If you swap the 2019GE vote shares, so Labour lead 44.7-33.0 with a 11.7% swing, then Labour win 324-226, just short of a majority.

If you give Labour a vote lead of 14.8%, equal to the largest lead that either party has had since WWII (in 1983), then Labour do have a majority, 344-207.

You have to give Labour a lead of 17.7% until they reach a majority of 80-something, as the Tories have now.

On the face of it, the current electoral geography is shockingly bad for Labour.

Indeed it is. But, as others have said, that can turn.
It did between the 2005 and 2015 elections.

But in the Tories' favour.

Similar changes in favor of Labour are pretty much limited to, er, Tony Blair.

MarqueeMark said:

dixiedean said:

MarqueeMark said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Jonathan said:

Brexit, inflation and now British Rail is back. It’s the 70s, but with shit music and films.

Golden age of TV though.

Black and White Minstrels, Wheeltappers and Shunters, Love Thy Neighbour, Mind Your Language....watch the little woke heads explode at that telly line up!

Chuck in every other show presented by Jimmy Saville or Rolf Harris.
You wouldn't have to be woke for that.

So - the Seventies Golden Age of Telly was - The Sweeney?

dixiedean said:

MarqueeMark said:

dixiedean said:

MarqueeMark said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Jonathan said:

Brexit, inflation and now British Rail is back. It’s the 70s, but with shit music and films.

Golden age of TV though.

Black and White Minstrels, Wheeltappers and Shunters, Love Thy Neighbour, Mind Your Language....watch the little woke heads explode at that telly line up!

Chuck in every other show presented by Jimmy Saville or Rolf Harris.
You wouldn't have to be woke for that.

And Stuart Hall with his It's A Knockout mini marathons. Emphasis on the mini.....

However. 3 channels. And no TV at all between 11 pm and midday.

LostPassword said:

I'm wondering how this compares to, say, 1987, which was the most recent other time that the Tories had a majority larger than 50.

Is this simply what you would expect when one party is so far ahead of another in the national vote, or has the Labour vote become so concentrated in the big cities, and therefore inefficient, that there's an actual difference?

Maybe Labour's problem is just to become more popular, and the electoral geography will look after itself.

Brom said:

“GBR will also collect fare revenue, run the network and set most fares and timetables when it comes into existence in 2023.
However, many reforms will come into force before then, including the introduction of flexible season tickets, offering savings on certain routes for people who do not travel to work every day.
These will go on sale on 21 June, for use seven days later.
The carnet-style tickets will allow passengers to travel on any eight days in a 28-day period.“

The above suggests clear water between the role of Great British Railways and Network Rail. Carnet tickets should be popular with flexible workers.

Chameleon said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Chameleon said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Chameleon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Hmmm......and people were worried about having to deep in with your vaccine passport for the pub....

Holiday 'police' to knock on your door: As hopes rise for full freedom in June, Priti Patel reveals plans for up to 10,000 quarantine checks EVERY day to make sure Britons returning from abroad are in isolation

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9597685/Priti-Patel-reveals-plans-10-000-quarantine-checks-day.html

There is a strong chance that I'm being stupid, but I don't get traveller quarantine post herd immunity.

A traveller can return as one of three states:

1) No covid, no problem

2) With a covid strain unresistant to vaccines, which is no problem.

3) With a covid strain that largely escapes vaccines, which is a problem.

Under current rules the isolation period is shorter than the incubation period, and naturally porous via family members/ some people not isolating properly so no matter how many rona police there are some will escape the net. Lets be *extremely* generous and assume that quarantine/test & release prevents 95% of cases imported going on to infect someone else vs every single imported case infecting at least 1 other person without quarantine.

R of Kentish/Indian Covid seems to be somewhere between 3-6 in a population that largely isn't social distancing and doesn't have rules in place.

Lets give a rough estimate of 1m people entering and leaving the country every week this summer (which is low), and say 0.05% have vaccine resistant COVID (500 cases per week), using the assumptions above all bar 25 of the cases imported per week would be stopped under current rules, only issue is that in one generation those 25 cases (among a vulnerable population) would have a R of ~4/5 (generation 1: 113, generation 2: 506), so at most quarantine buys us 20 days head start.

If a vaccine resistant strain emerges it *will* find it's way in unless we shut our borders completely, so the current isolation rules seem to impose maximum cost while giving us extremely limited benefits.

Because you're viewing it as a boolean state of "its out" or "its in" and if "its in" then there's nothing we can do about it.

If a problem variant comes in then its better to have those cases at a low number that can be suppressed and not simply (at this stage) give up and let it rip.

In March 2020 we were struggling to do thousands of tests per day, now we can do a million plus tests per day. If limited outbreaks occur then surge testing etc can squish it, which isn't the case if its just letting it run wild without a care. 20 days head start is absolutely massive.

If surge testing worked we would have stopped the Indian and Saffa variants via testing, but as a nation we are just far too interconnected for that sort of thing to work effectively.

By the time we're aware that we have a problem with a vaccine resistant strain (which would probably be around the same threshold of cases, so those 20 days are likely misleading), it will be too late.

We have squished the Saffa variant via testing and we have just started testing for the Indian variant in the same way and already case numbers overall are going back down again.

The Indian variant is pretty clearly it hitting an unvaccinated pocket and running out of hosts to spread to (see the limited geographical spread), as for the Saffa strain it's errrr, 0.1% off of it's peak in terms of the proportion of cases sequenced being Saffa strain (as for absolute numbers the previous peak was w/e 27th of March, where 22 sequenced genomes were saffa strain, the last two weeks have had 26 and 22.5(?) saffa strain cases sequenced). https://covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw?

Then bear in mind that these two strains are not resistant to vaccines, and consequently any variant largely immune to vaccines will spread far more rapidly, to far more people than those relatively hard to spread strains that we have failed to crush. If a genuinely vaccine resistant strain finds it's way into the UK, unless we catch every case of it basically instantly, it will rip through society.

MarqueeMark said:

Floater said:

Paging Leon

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9597715/We-discover-UFO-truth-there.html

OMG, the aliens are going to shatter the Earth! The Mail said so.....

Philip_Thompson said:

Brom said:

“GBR will also collect fare revenue, run the network and set most fares and timetables when it comes into existence in 2023.
However, many reforms will come into force before then, including the introduction of flexible season tickets, offering savings on certain routes for people who do not travel to work every day.
These will go on sale on 21 June, for use seven days later.
The carnet-style tickets will allow passengers to travel on any eight days in a 28-day period.“

The above suggests clear water between the role of Great British Railways and Network Rail. Carnet tickets should be popular with flexible workers.

Network Rail will cease to exist, it will be a part of GBR.

Philip_Thompson said:

Anabobazina said:

Time_to_Leave said:

Gallowgate said:

williamglenn said:

Rail services to come under unified state control

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57176858

"The government has announced the biggest shake-up in the UK's railways since privatisation in the mid-1990s. The reform plan will see the creation of a new state-owned body, Great British Railways (GBR), which will own and manage rail infrastructure."

Is this just a rebrand of Network Rail, or something more?

It’s much more. At the minute, many rail franchises have to run their services using what passengers pay them. They of course price in the implied risk of that.

This takes that away and runs the whole thing via the Government, with companies paid a flat fee to run each service. Structured correctly, if it works, they will then of course be held to account for trains running properly, which is the bit they claim to be good at.

It’s a good idea and the right balance. Can’t possibly have been dreamt up by a politician.

And it gives the public one arse to kick under a unified GBR brand - instead of having several companies with different protocols, brand names and fare structures, blaming each other.

It will be popular.

And it will put more onus on the Treasury to fund the railways, which the Treasury will prioritise Schools N Hospitals, so investment will fall and the railways will ossify and passenger numbers will fall.

Anabobazina said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Anabobazina said:

Time_to_Leave said:

Gallowgate said:

williamglenn said:

Rail services to come under unified state control

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57176858

"The government has announced the biggest shake-up in the UK's railways since privatisation in the mid-1990s. The reform plan will see the creation of a new state-owned body, Great British Railways (GBR), which will own and manage rail infrastructure."

Is this just a rebrand of Network Rail, or something more?

It’s much more. At the minute, many rail franchises have to run their services using what passengers pay them. They of course price in the implied risk of that.

This takes that away and runs the whole thing via the Government, with companies paid a flat fee to run each service. Structured correctly, if it works, they will then of course be held to account for trains running properly, which is the bit they claim to be good at.

It’s a good idea and the right balance. Can’t possibly have been dreamt up by a politician.

And it gives the public one arse to kick under a unified GBR brand - instead of having several companies with different protocols, brand names and fare structures, blaming each other.

It will be popular.

And it will put more onus on the Treasury to fund the railways, which the Treasury will prioritise Schools N Hospitals, so investment will fall and the railways will ossify and passenger numbers will fall.

Just like they fell on London Overground when Silverlink and Anglia were nationalised as concessions? 🧐

LostPassword said:

I've had a play on electoral calculus to get a rough idea of how the electoral geography affects things.

A 3.2% swing denies the Tories a majority, leaving them ahead 324-237.

If you put Labour and Tory level on votes, a 5.85% swing, then the Tories lead by 284-272 on seats.

If you swap the 2019GE vote shares, so Labour lead 44.7-33.0 with a 11.7% swing, then Labour win 324-226, just short of a majority.

If you give Labour a vote lead of 14.8%, equal to the largest lead that either party has had since WWII (in 1983), then Labour do have a majority, 344-207.

You have to give Labour a lead of 17.7% until they reach a majority of 80-something, as the Tories have now.

On the face of it, the current electoral geography is shockingly bad for Labour.

Philip_Thompson said:

Chameleon said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Chameleon said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Chameleon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Hmmm......and people were worried about having to deep in with your vaccine passport for the pub....

Holiday 'police' to knock on your door: As hopes rise for full freedom in June, Priti Patel reveals plans for up to 10,000 quarantine checks EVERY day to make sure Britons returning from abroad are in isolation

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9597685/Priti-Patel-reveals-plans-10-000-quarantine-checks-day.html

There is a strong chance that I'm being stupid, but I don't get traveller quarantine post herd immunity.

A traveller can return as one of three states:

1) No covid, no problem

2) With a covid strain unresistant to vaccines, which is no problem.

3) With a covid strain that largely escapes vaccines, which is a problem.

Under current rules the isolation period is shorter than the incubation period, and naturally porous via family members/ some people not isolating properly so no matter how many rona police there are some will escape the net. Lets be *extremely* generous and assume that quarantine/test & release prevents 95% of cases imported going on to infect someone else vs every single imported case infecting at least 1 other person without quarantine.

R of Kentish/Indian Covid seems to be somewhere between 3-6 in a population that largely isn't social distancing and doesn't have rules in place.

Lets give a rough estimate of 1m people entering and leaving the country every week this summer (which is low), and say 0.05% have vaccine resistant COVID (500 cases per week), using the assumptions above all bar 25 of the cases imported per week would be stopped under current rules, only issue is that in one generation those 25 cases (among a vulnerable population) would have a R of ~4/5 (generation 1: 113, generation 2: 506), so at most quarantine buys us 20 days head start.

If a vaccine resistant strain emerges it *will* find it's way in unless we shut our borders completely, so the current isolation rules seem to impose maximum cost while giving us extremely limited benefits.

Because you're viewing it as a boolean state of "its out" or "its in" and if "its in" then there's nothing we can do about it.

If a problem variant comes in then its better to have those cases at a low number that can be suppressed and not simply (at this stage) give up and let it rip.

In March 2020 we were struggling to do thousands of tests per day, now we can do a million plus tests per day. If limited outbreaks occur then surge testing etc can squish it, which isn't the case if its just letting it run wild without a care. 20 days head start is absolutely massive.

If surge testing worked we would have stopped the Indian and Saffa variants via testing, but as a nation we are just far too interconnected for that sort of thing to work effectively.

By the time we're aware that we have a problem with a vaccine resistant strain (which would probably be around the same threshold of cases, so those 20 days are likely misleading), it will be too late.

We have squished the Saffa variant via testing and we have just started testing for the Indian variant in the same way and already case numbers overall are going back down again.

The Indian variant is pretty clearly it hitting an unvaccinated pocket and running out of hosts to spread to (see the limited geographical spread), as for the Saffa strain it's errrr, 0.1% off of it's peak in terms of the proportion of cases sequenced being Saffa strain (as for absolute numbers the previous peak was w/e 27th of March, where 22 sequenced genomes were saffa strain, the last two weeks have had 26 and 22.5(?) saffa strain cases sequenced). https://covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw?

Then bear in mind that these two strains are not resistant to vaccines, and consequently any variant largely immune to vaccines will spread far more rapidly, to far more people than those relatively hard to spread strains that we have failed to crush. If a genuinely vaccine resistant strain finds it's way into the UK, unless we catch every case of it basically instantly, it will rip through society.

That's too completely misunderstand vaccine resistance, again it isn't boolean. You're making everything all or nothing, but it doesn't work that way.

A vaccine resistant strain will still have vaccines working, just working less efficiently allowing more infections and more disease, but with vaccines still stopping some infections and some disease. The odds of vaccines ceasing to work at all in one go are quite miniscule.

Chameleon said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Chameleon said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Chameleon said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Chameleon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Hmmm......and people were worried about having to deep in with your vaccine passport for the pub....

Holiday 'police' to knock on your door: As hopes rise for full freedom in June, Priti Patel reveals plans for up to 10,000 quarantine checks EVERY day to make sure Britons returning from abroad are in isolation

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9597685/Priti-Patel-reveals-plans-10-000-quarantine-checks-day.html

There is a strong chance that I'm being stupid, but I don't get traveller quarantine post herd immunity.

A traveller can return as one of three states:

1) No covid, no problem

2) With a covid strain unresistant to vaccines, which is no problem.

3) With a covid strain that largely escapes vaccines, which is a problem.

Under current rules the isolation period is shorter than the incubation period, and naturally porous via family members/ some people not isolating properly so no matter how many rona police there are some will escape the net. Lets be *extremely* generous and assume that quarantine/test & release prevents 95% of cases imported going on to infect someone else vs every single imported case infecting at least 1 other person without quarantine.

R of Kentish/Indian Covid seems to be somewhere between 3-6 in a population that largely isn't social distancing and doesn't have rules in place.

Lets give a rough estimate of 1m people entering and leaving the country every week this summer (which is low), and say 0.05% have vaccine resistant COVID (500 cases per week), using the assumptions above all bar 25 of the cases imported per week would be stopped under current rules, only issue is that in one generation those 25 cases (among a vulnerable population) would have a R of ~4/5 (generation 1: 113, generation 2: 506), so at most quarantine buys us 20 days head start.

If a vaccine resistant strain emerges it *will* find it's way in unless we shut our borders completely, so the current isolation rules seem to impose maximum cost while giving us extremely limited benefits.

Because you're viewing it as a boolean state of "its out" or "its in" and if "its in" then there's nothing we can do about it.

If a problem variant comes in then its better to have those cases at a low number that can be suppressed and not simply (at this stage) give up and let it rip.

In March 2020 we were struggling to do thousands of tests per day, now we can do a million plus tests per day. If limited outbreaks occur then surge testing etc can squish it, which isn't the case if its just letting it run wild without a care. 20 days head start is absolutely massive.

If surge testing worked we would have stopped the Indian and Saffa variants via testing, but as a nation we are just far too interconnected for that sort of thing to work effectively.

By the time we're aware that we have a problem with a vaccine resistant strain (which would probably be around the same threshold of cases, so those 20 days are likely misleading), it will be too late.

We have squished the Saffa variant via testing and we have just started testing for the Indian variant in the same way and already case numbers overall are going back down again.

The Indian variant is pretty clearly it hitting an unvaccinated pocket and running out of hosts to spread to (see the limited geographical spread), as for the Saffa strain it's errrr, 0.1% off of it's peak in terms of the proportion of cases sequenced being Saffa strain (as for absolute numbers the previous peak was w/e 27th of March, where 22 sequenced genomes were saffa strain, the last two weeks have had 26 and 22.5(?) saffa strain cases sequenced). https://covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw?

Then bear in mind that these two strains are not resistant to vaccines, and consequently any variant largely immune to vaccines will spread far more rapidly, to far more people than those relatively hard to spread strains that we have failed to crush. If a genuinely vaccine resistant strain finds it's way into the UK, unless we catch every case of it basically instantly, it will rip through society.

That's too completely misunderstand vaccine resistance, again it isn't boolean. You're making everything all or nothing, but it doesn't work that way.

A vaccine resistant strain will still have vaccines working, just working less efficiently allowing more infections and more disease, but with vaccines still stopping some infections and some disease. The odds of vaccines ceasing to work at all in one go are quite miniscule.

I've stated at several points that variants can escape vaccines to a small, large, or complete extent. However if a variant only escapes some vaccines to a minimal degree (i.e. not by enough to push it's Rx above 1) then it also falls into the bucket of 'who gives a shit'.

So, if as you state, the odds of a variant completely escaping the vaccines is minimal (which I agree with), then why are the Government pursuing the high cost, low impact quarantine intervention?

The Government does not have the capability to crush variants even when we're in lockdown, the quarantine system is only marginally effective at best, and it's (ineffectually) covering for a relatively rare scenario.

Anabobazina said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Leon said:

Brom said:

“GBR will also collect fare revenue, run the network and set most fares and timetables when it comes into existence in 2023.
However, many reforms will come into force before then, including the introduction of flexible season tickets, offering savings on certain routes for people who do not travel to work every day.
These will go on sale on 21 June, for use seven days later.
The carnet-style tickets will allow passengers to travel on any eight days in a 28-day period.“

The above suggests clear water between the role of Great British Railways and Network Rail. Carnet tickets should be popular with flexible workers.

It also sounds, to me, like a move against Scottish Nationalism

The UKG is recreating British-wide institutions to fortify British identity

Though is it British-wide?

Won't ScotRail be owned by the Scottish Government still? So how will that work?

Scotrail is just a franchise currently but is being fully renationalised next March.

NI Rail was never privatised in the first place, ditto London Underground / TfL.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-56432919

Philip_Thompson said:

Anabobazina said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Leon said:

Brom said:

“GBR will also collect fare revenue, run the network and set most fares and timetables when it comes into existence in 2023.
However, many reforms will come into force before then, including the introduction of flexible season tickets, offering savings on certain routes for people who do not travel to work every day.
These will go on sale on 21 June, for use seven days later.
The carnet-style tickets will allow passengers to travel on any eight days in a 28-day period.“

The above suggests clear water between the role of Great British Railways and Network Rail. Carnet tickets should be popular with flexible workers.

It also sounds, to me, like a move against Scottish Nationalism

The UKG is recreating British-wide institutions to fortify British identity

Though is it British-wide?

Won't ScotRail be owned by the Scottish Government still? So how will that work?

Scotrail is just a franchise currently but is being fully renationalised next March.

NI Rail was never privatised in the first place, ditto London Underground / TfL.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-56432919

Indeed but its not being renationalised as part of GB Rail is it? It will be owned by the Scottish Government not the UK one.

So is GB Rail really England Rail with a GB name? Or is it actually GB wide?

Anabobazina said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Anabobazina said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Leon said:

Brom said:

“GBR will also collect fare revenue, run the network and set most fares and timetables when it comes into existence in 2023.
However, many reforms will come into force before then, including the introduction of flexible season tickets, offering savings on certain routes for people who do not travel to work every day.
These will go on sale on 21 June, for use seven days later.
The carnet-style tickets will allow passengers to travel on any eight days in a 28-day period.“

The above suggests clear water between the role of Great British Railways and Network Rail. Carnet tickets should be popular with flexible workers.

It also sounds, to me, like a move against Scottish Nationalism

The UKG is recreating British-wide institutions to fortify British identity

Though is it British-wide?

Won't ScotRail be owned by the Scottish Government still? So how will that work?

Scotrail is just a franchise currently but is being fully renationalised next March.

NI Rail was never privatised in the first place, ditto London Underground / TfL.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-56432919

Indeed but its not being renationalised as part of GB Rail is it? It will be owned by the Scottish Government not the UK one.

So is GB Rail really England Rail with a GB name? Or is it actually GB wide?

It’s GB wide because many English lines run well into Scotland (eg LNER, West Coast - based at KX and Euston respectively).

In the same way that TGV trains go into Italy etc.

Leon said:

Anabobazina said:

dixiedean said:

Next the buses.

Always been regulated in London and run by TfL. Even Mrs T didn’t believe in privatising London buses - thank god. One of the finest bus networks in the world.

And now bankrupt. Entirely empty London buses go past my flat every few minutes. I really do wonder how London Transport survives the plague

I just saw another one. A double decker. Zero passengers. It's like this for much of the day. London is dying

dixiedean said:

Anabobazina said:

dixiedean said:

Next the buses.

Always been regulated in London and run by TfL. Even Mrs T didn’t believe in privatising London buses - thank god. One of the finest bus networks in the world.

No comfort to the rest of us paying £4.50 to travel 3 miles from the nearest stop 1.5 miles away.
But we rejoice in your good fortune.

rcs1000 said:

Leon said:

Leon said:

Anabobazina said:

dixiedean said:

Next the buses.

Always been regulated in London and run by TfL. Even Mrs T didn’t believe in privatising London buses - thank god. One of the finest bus networks in the world.

And now bankrupt. Entirely empty London buses go past my flat every few minutes. I really do wonder how London Transport survives the plague

I just saw another one. A double decker. Zero passengers. It's like this for much of the day. London is dying

And I'm not imagining it. Tube use is still at 40% normal, buses at 60%, and not really moving. And in central London it feels much lower

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/transport-use-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-pandemic

Strangely people prefer to travel by car (where they don't need to wear a mask and where they won't be surrounded by potential plague carriers) during a pandemic.

SandyRentool said:

williamglenn said:

Rail services to come under unified state control

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57176858

"The government has announced the biggest shake-up in the UK's railways since privatisation in the mid-1990s. The reform plan will see the creation of a new state-owned body, Great British Railways (GBR), which will own and manage rail infrastructure."

Jezza fulfilling a manifesto commitment.

On top of that, you even had one of his loony left mayors seizing his local airport for the proletariat.

NickPalmer said:

SandyRentool said:

williamglenn said:

Rail services to come under unified state control

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57176858

"The government has announced the biggest shake-up in the UK's railways since privatisation in the mid-1990s. The reform plan will see the creation of a new state-owned body, Great British Railways (GBR), which will own and manage rail infrastructure."

Jezza fulfilling a manifesto commitment.

On top of that, you even had one of his loony left mayors seizing his local airport for the proletariat.

Yes...there are actually quite a few Labour pledges being delivered, from the magic money tree support for furlough to rail nationalisation to accelerated housebuilding to subsidies for industry to diverse greenery to an interesting animal welfare strategy. I'm a Labour loyalist, but I can't say I feel especially anti-Government at the moment. If the Tories want to deliver Corbynism, it would be churlish to grumble.

Leon said:

rcs1000 said:

Leon said:

Leon said:

Anabobazina said:

dixiedean said:

Next the buses.

Always been regulated in London and run by TfL. Even Mrs T didn’t believe in privatising London buses - thank god. One of the finest bus networks in the world.

And now bankrupt. Entirely empty London buses go past my flat every few minutes. I really do wonder how London Transport survives the plague

I just saw another one. A double decker. Zero passengers. It's like this for much of the day. London is dying

And I'm not imagining it. Tube use is still at 40% normal, buses at 60%, and not really moving. And in central London it feels much lower

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/transport-use-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-pandemic

Strangely people prefer to travel by car (where they don't need to wear a mask and where they won't be surrounded by potential plague carriers) during a pandemic.

As do I. My point is that London relies on heavy public transport use, and doesn't really work without it

If the London economy fails, the UK seizes up. Like a heart attack. Just a fact

Leon said:

Brom said:

“GBR will also collect fare revenue, run the network and set most fares and timetables when it comes into existence in 2023.
However, many reforms will come into force before then, including the introduction of flexible season tickets, offering savings on certain routes for people who do not travel to work every day.
These will go on sale on 21 June, for use seven days later.
The carnet-style tickets will allow passengers to travel on any eight days in a 28-day period.“

The above suggests clear water between the role of Great British Railways and Network Rail. Carnet tickets should be popular with flexible workers.

It also sounds, to me, like a move against Scottish Nationalism

The UKG is recreating British-wide institutions to fortify British identity

TOPPING said:

I would hope that USAF pilots never get that tired .

Dura_Ace said:

TOPPING said:

I would hope that USAF pilots never get that tired .

Of course they do. A 391st Strike Eagle crew flew a 15+ hour mission over Afghanistan. That's over 15 hours strapped into ejection seats, releasing weapons, multiple air-to-air refuelling, talking to AWACS, TAC, etc. How tired do you think those two were?

I have hallucinated from fatigue while flying many times. I was once convinced the carrier deck was tree lined on both sides on a night landing.

Leon said:

Dura_Ace said:

TOPPING said:

I would hope that USAF pilots never get that tired .

Of course they do. A 391st Strike Eagle crew flew a 15+ hour mission over Afghanistan. That's over 15 hours strapped into ejection seats, releasing weapons, multiple air-to-air refuelling, talking to AWACS, TAC, etc. How tired do you think those two were?

I have hallucinated from fatigue while flying many times. I was once convinced the carrier deck was tree lined on both sides on a night landing.

Stop whining. You just need really good amphetamines. The Germans invented several expressly for this purpose

Philip_Thompson said:

Anabobazina said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Leon said:

Brom said:

“GBR will also collect fare revenue, run the network and set most fares and timetables when it comes into existence in 2023.
However, many reforms will come into force before then, including the introduction of flexible season tickets, offering savings on certain routes for people who do not travel to work every day.
These will go on sale on 21 June, for use seven days later.
The carnet-style tickets will allow passengers to travel on any eight days in a 28-day period.“

The above suggests clear water between the role of Great British Railways and Network Rail. Carnet tickets should be popular with flexible workers.

It also sounds, to me, like a move against Scottish Nationalism

The UKG is recreating British-wide institutions to fortify British identity

Though is it British-wide?

Won't ScotRail be owned by the Scottish Government still? So how will that work?

Scotrail is just a franchise currently but is being fully renationalised next March.

NI Rail was never privatised in the first place, ditto London Underground / TfL.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-56432919

Indeed but its not being renationalised as part of GB Rail is it? It will be owned by the Scottish Government not the UK one.

So is GB Rail really England Rail with a GB name? Or is it actually GB wide?

swing_voter said:

Coming back on topic - Nottinghamshire doesnt get a mention, but the fact that Mansfield is now held by a young(ish) Conservative with a 16000 majority (it had Labour majorities of 10k-20K) during the Blair years to me is almost as astounding as Hartlepool. Notingham itself stayed red but is now a small island. Labour really needs to work out how you rebrand and retain London but win back Mansfield, Gedling etc

MattW said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Anabobazina said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Leon said:

Brom said:

“GBR will also collect fare revenue, run the network and set most fares and timetables when it comes into existence in 2023.
However, many reforms will come into force before then, including the introduction of flexible season tickets, offering savings on certain routes for people who do not travel to work every day.
These will go on sale on 21 June, for use seven days later.
The carnet-style tickets will allow passengers to travel on any eight days in a 28-day period.“

The above suggests clear water between the role of Great British Railways and Network Rail. Carnet tickets should be popular with flexible workers.

It also sounds, to me, like a move against Scottish Nationalism

The UKG is recreating British-wide institutions to fortify British identity

Though is it British-wide?

Won't ScotRail be owned by the Scottish Government still? So how will that work?

Scotrail is just a franchise currently but is being fully renationalised next March.

NI Rail was never privatised in the first place, ditto London Underground / TfL.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-56432919

Indeed but its not being renationalised as part of GB Rail is it? It will be owned by the Scottish Government not the UK one.

So is GB Rail really England Rail with a GB name? Or is it actually GB wide?

It will be interesting to see what changes.

Keep the good of the previous model and improve the poor.

What will happen to TUs?