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SystemSystem Posts: 12,651
edited June 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB retains 3 percent lead with Ipsos-MORI but one in two voters think EdM should go

The June Ipsos-MORI political monitor is out
LAB 34=
CON 31=
UKIP 14+3
LD 8-3

Read the full story here


«134

Comments

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Ed opts for six on Iraq and the statesman option. Effectively a no score draw that presently is a decent result for Ed.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,193
    43% of Labour supporters want shot of Ed. Ouch.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,027
    It's too late to get rid of any of the leaders I think.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Perhaps PBers with better memories than mine might advise me whether I have noted to the denizens of this esteemed parish that :

    Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    ToryJim said:

    43% of Labour supporters want shot of Ed. Ouch.

    Indeed. - but not surprised as the majority of Labour supporters' and MPs didn't vote for him.

  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Pulpstar said:

    It's too late to get rid of any of the leaders I think.

    The Aussies would think it indecently early...
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    It's not just Ed Milliband that worries me, it's the entire shadow cabinet. You will never find a more wretched hive of scum and villainy.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,866
    It'll be interesting to see whether the widespread lack of enthusiasm for E. Miliband will stop him getting into Downing Street. Labour's got a helpful electoral system on its side and is usually in the lead, but there's no denying that Miliband it not necessarily the most popular leader in political history.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    @John_M - I wouldn't go so far as to use the words 'scum and villainy', but they are certainly an unusually mediocre lot. Hopi Sen's article on what the first Ed M Cabinet meetings might decide to do is grimly hilarious:

    http://www.progressonline.org.uk/2014/06/04/after-the-celebrations/
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,451
    John_M said:

    It's not just Ed Milliband that worries me, it's the entire shadow cabinet. You will never find a more wretched hive of scum and villainy.

    Wasn't it Obi Wan Kenobi who said that?

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,866
    And, just to repost, I backed Massa at 9 (each way) to be Winner without Hamilton/Rosberg at Ladbrokes. I suspect Williams and Force India will have another strong race.

    McLaren and Ferrari are a bit poor this year. Especially bad for Ferrari, given their lineup.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    fpt in reply to TSE

    And would those be Tory brown-nose journalists? As for senior Tories, what would you expect them to say? Perhaps Brogan let his personal feelings on the Union get in the way? I just wonder whether Brogan's crime was to break confidence. And we're assuming Cameron would have a choice in the matter. Miliband and Farage would surely call for his immediate resignation for putting us in a constitutional crisis. What would Clegg do? I guess he'd follow the polls. Once people realise the political mess we'd be in, things could move very quickly against Cameron. His one saving grace might be the fact we have a general election on the horizon.

    I'd like to see some polling on what people think Cameron should do if Scotland votes for independence? Why aren't pollsters asking this question?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,492
    Even Labour supporters think Ed is a duffer.

    Just to put this poll into context, in June 2009, Dave and the Tories had a lead of 17% with Ipsos-Mori
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,027
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    @John_M - I wouldn't go so far as to use the words 'scum and villainy', but they are certainly an unusually mediocre lot. Hopi Sen's article on what the first Ed M Cabinet meetings might decide to do is grimly hilarious:

    http://www.progressonline.org.uk/2014/06/04/after-the-celebrations/

    The first thing he'll have to do is arrange some sort of coalition or confidence and supply with the rump Lib Dems.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,492
    FrankBooth said:

    fpt in reply to TSE

    And would those be Tory brown-nose journalists? As for senior Tories, what would you expect them to say? Perhaps Brogan let his personal feelings on the Union get in the way? I just wonder whether Brogan's crime was to break confidence. And we're assuming Cameron would have a choice in the matter. Miliband and Farage would surely call for his immediate resignation for putting us in a constitutional crisis. What would Clegg do? I guess he'd follow the polls. Once people realise the political mess we'd be in, things could move very quickly against Cameron. His one saving grace might be the fact we have a general election on the horizon.

    I'd like to see some polling on what people think Cameron should do if Scotland votes for independence? Why aren't pollsters asking this question?

    I believe people at the Guardian dismissed the story as well.

    IIRC last year, YouGov asked should Dave resign if Scotland votes yes, the voters said no, and most of the blame was apportioned to Labour and Margaret Thatcher.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    John_M said:

    It's not just Ed Milliband that worries me, it's the entire shadow cabinet. You will never find a more wretched hive of scum and villainy.

    I hold no remit for Ed Miliband and his shadow cabinet but I think that language is most unhelpful and certainly unworthy of the political discourse on PB.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,866
    Mr. W, as noted below, I think it was a quote from Obi-Wan Kenobi, possibly referring to Mos Eisley.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. W, as noted below, I think it was a quote from Obi-Wan Kenobi, possibly referring to Mos Eisley.

    Indeed .... however JackW Strikes Back

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    SeanT said:

    JackW said:

    John_M said:

    It's not just Ed Milliband that worries me, it's the entire shadow cabinet. You will never find a more wretched hive of scum and villainy.

    I hold no remit for Ed Miliband and his shadow cabinet but I think that language is most unhelpful and certainly unworthy of the political discourse on PB.

    Crivvens, we see far far worse on pb every day before breakfast, and that's just from Malcolm G.

    You're getting over-sensitive in your dotage.
    Ok .... Piss off then !!

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,866
    Mr. W, if you strike John_M down he will become more powerful than you can possibly imagine.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,492
    Job applicants do not need to disclose childhood offences, supreme court rules

    Campaigners welcome judges' decision in case of two people who had to reveal police cautions while looking for work

    http://www.theguardian.com/law/2014/jun/18/job-applicants-childhood-offences-supreme-court?CMP=twt_fd
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrankBooth said:

    fpt in reply to TSE

    And would those be Tory brown-nose journalists? As for senior Tories, what would you expect them to say? Perhaps Brogan let his personal feelings on the Union get in the way? I just wonder whether Brogan's crime was to break confidence. And we're assuming Cameron would have a choice in the matter. Miliband and Farage would surely call for his immediate resignation for putting us in a constitutional crisis. What would Clegg do? I guess he'd follow the polls. Once people realise the political mess we'd be in, things could move very quickly against Cameron. His one saving grace might be the fact we have a general election on the horizon.

    I'd like to see some polling on what people think Cameron should do if Scotland votes for independence? Why aren't pollsters asking this question?

    I believe people at the Guardian dismissed the story as well.

    IIRC last year, YouGov asked should Dave resign if Scotland votes yes, the voters said no, and most of the blame was apportioned to Labour and Margaret Thatcher.
    Okay but you can be sure that Farage and Miliband would call for his resignation. The Telegraph, The Mail and The Guardian would likely follow suit. We would be in a constitutional mess that might get worse in 2015. What would Clegg do? I don't know. But surely there would be dissent from both the Lib Dem and Tory backbenches. Consider that one of the reasons Cameron maintains support from his backbenchers is that he is pledged to holding a referendum on EU membership in 2017. So whilst we have a very difficult negotiation with Scotland over independence, we would simultaneously be renegotiating our relationship with the EU. Is that plausible? It might be if we assume that the EU renegotiation is only likely to be cosmetic anyway. Would he really maintain the backing of his own party?

    My guess is Cameron has changed his mind. Initially he probably told confidants he'd resign if the 'unthinkable' happened. Now it looks possible he's suddenly realised he wouldn't want to go. He may have no choice in the matter though.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Might I recommend you view the tail-end of the previous thread. It seems that someone hasn't spotted the new one :)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,492
    FrankBooth said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrankBooth said:

    fpt in reply to TSE

    And would those be Tory brown-nose journalists? As for senior Tories, what would you expect them to say? Perhaps Brogan let his personal feelings on the Union get in the way? I just wonder whether Brogan's crime was to break confidence. And we're assuming Cameron would have a choice in the matter. Miliband and Farage would surely call for his immediate resignation for putting us in a constitutional crisis. What would Clegg do? I guess he'd follow the polls. Once people realise the political mess we'd be in, things could move very quickly against Cameron. His one saving grace might be the fact we have a general election on the horizon.

    I'd like to see some polling on what people think Cameron should do if Scotland votes for independence? Why aren't pollsters asking this question?

    I believe people at the Guardian dismissed the story as well.

    IIRC last year, YouGov asked should Dave resign if Scotland votes yes, the voters said no, and most of the blame was apportioned to Labour and Margaret Thatcher.
    Okay but you can be sure that Farage and Miliband would call for his resignation. The Telegraph, The Mail and The Guardian would likely follow suit. We would be in a constitutional mess that might get worse in 2015. What would Clegg do? I don't know. But surely there would be dissent from both the Lib Dem and Tory backbenches. Consider that one of the reasons Cameron maintains support from his backbenchers is that he is pledged to holding a referendum on EU membership in 2017. So whilst we have a very difficult negotiation with Scotland over independence, we would simultaneously be renegotiating our relationship with the EU. Is that plausible? It might be if we assume that the EU renegotiation is only likely to be cosmetic anyway. Would he really maintain the backing of his own party?

    My guess is Cameron has changed his mind. Initially he probably told confidants he'd resign if the 'unthinkable' happened. Now it looks possible he's suddenly realised he wouldn't want to go. He may have no choice in the matter though.
    All Dave and the Tories would have to do is remind people, the Tories said Devolution would inexorably lead to Scottish Independence, and George Robertson said "Devolution would kill Scottish Nationalism stone dead"
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    @John_M - I wouldn't go so far as to use the words 'scum and villainy', but they are certainly an unusually mediocre lot. Hopi Sen's article on what the first Ed M Cabinet meetings might decide to do is grimly hilarious:

    http://www.progressonline.org.uk/2014/06/04/after-the-celebrations/

    an immediate energy reform bill to freeze energy prices, with civil servants instructed to have a bill drafted for the approval of the new prime minister on day one.

    Oh that's how it works is it? No need to trouble Parliament.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    CarlottaVance said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    @John_M - I wouldn't go so far as to use the words 'scum and villainy', but they are certainly an unusually mediocre lot. Hopi Sen's article on what the first Ed M Cabinet meetings might decide to do is grimly hilarious:

    http://www.progressonline.org.uk/2014/06/04/after-the-celebrations/

    an immediate energy reform bill to freeze energy prices, with civil servants instructed to have a bill drafted for the approval of the new prime minister on day one.

    Oh that's how it works is it? No need to trouble Parliament.
    That's the way Blair did it.

  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    Anorak said:

    Might I recommend you view the tail-end of the previous thread. It seems that someone hasn't spotted the new one :)

    Leave Malcolm be.

    He's knocked back a few whiskies and is relaxing before his minicab shift starts.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,193
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Job applicants do not need to disclose childhood offences, supreme court rules

    Campaigners welcome judges' decision in case of two people who had to reveal police cautions while looking for work

    http://www.theguardian.com/law/2014/jun/18/job-applicants-childhood-offences-supreme-court?CMP=twt_fd

    Absolutely correct for minor offences.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    FrankBooth said:


    My guess is Cameron has changed his mind. Initially he probably told confidants he'd resign if the 'unthinkable' happened. Now it looks possible he's suddenly realised he wouldn't want to go. He may have no choice in the matter though.

    I think your account is probably accurate, but the precedent of Irish independence suggests it wouldn't be needed.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    SeanT said:



    I am pretty certain Cameron would resign if he lost Scotland. He has just enough of that old fashioned Old Etonian do-the-decent thing High Toryism in him; he'd see no moral alternative.

    However the notion is, of course, being strenuously denied so it doesn't give Scots another reason to vote YES.

    The only evidence that he's that sort of person is his attendance at Eton. Yet his behaviour suggests he's not that sort of guy: he doesn't show a firm attachment to traditional liberal conservative principles, he doesn't have the decorum to stop his calling others "fruitcakes and racists", he doesn't have the usual modesty (e.g. "I think I'd be pretty good at it.").
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrankBooth said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrankBooth said:

    fpt in reply to TSE

    And would those be Tory brown-nose journalists? As for senior Tories, what would you expect them to say? Perhaps Brogan let his personal feelings on the Union get in the way? I just wonder whether Brogan's crime was to break confidence. And we're assuming Cameron would have a choice in the matter. Miliband and Farage would surely call for his immediate resignation for putting us in a constitutional crisis. What would Clegg do? I guess he'd follow the polls. Once people realise the political mess we'd be in, things could move very quickly against Cameron. His one saving grace might be the fact we have a general election on the horizon.

    I'd like to see some polling on what people think Cameron should do if Scotland votes for independence? Why aren't pollsters asking this question?

    I believe people at the Guardian dismissed the story as well.

    IIRC last year, YouGov asked should Dave resign if Scotland votes yes, the voters said no, and most of the blame was apportioned to Labour and Margaret Thatcher.
    Okay but you can be sure that Farage and Miliband would call for his resignation. The Telegraph, The Mail and The Guardian would likely follow suit. We would be in a constitutional mess that might get worse in 2015. What would Clegg do? I don't know. But surely there would be dissent from both the Lib Dem and Tory backbenches. Consider that one of the reasons Cameron maintains support from his backbenchers is that he is pledged to holding a referendum on EU membership in 2017. So whilst we have a very difficult negotiation with Scotland over independence, we would simultaneously be renegotiating our relationship with the EU. Is that plausible? It might be if we assume that the EU renegotiation is only likely to be cosmetic anyway. Would he really maintain the backing of his own party?

    My guess is Cameron has changed his mind. Initially he probably told confidants he'd resign if the 'unthinkable' happened. Now it looks possible he's suddenly realised he wouldn't want to go. He may have no choice in the matter though.
    All Dave and the Tories would have to do is remind people, the Tories said Devolution would inexorably lead to Scottish Independence, and George Robertson said "Devolution would kill Scottish Nationalism stone dead"
    To which people would reply 'Who is George Robertson?' Cameron knows he'd be a humiliated figure on the world stage. Imagine your wife running off with someone like Alex Salmond. I think blaming devolution is nonsense. Most countries have some kind of regional or state governance. For the UK to be different particularly when Westminster is so out of touch with large parts of the country is asking for trouble.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,492
    Socrates said:

    SeanT said:



    I am pretty certain Cameron would resign if he lost Scotland. He has just enough of that old fashioned Old Etonian do-the-decent thing High Toryism in him; he'd see no moral alternative.

    However the notion is, of course, being strenuously denied so it doesn't give Scots another reason to vote YES.

    The only evidence that he's that sort of person is his attendance at Eton. Yet his behaviour suggests he's not that sort of guy: he doesn't show a firm attachment to traditional liberal conservative principles, he doesn't have the decorum to stop his calling others "fruitcakes and racists", he doesn't have the usual modesty (e.g. "I think I'd be pretty good at it.").
    The evidence has shown his comment about UKIP being mostly full of racists, loonies fruitcakes isn't exactly inaccurate.

    And heaven forfend we have a Prime Minister with the self confidence in himself.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    FrankBooth said:



    To which people would reply 'Who is George Robertson?' Cameron knows he'd be a humiliated figure on the world stage. Imagine your wife running off with someone like Alex Salmond. I think blaming devolution is nonsense. Most countries have some kind of regional or state governance. For the UK to be different particularly when Westminster is so out of touch with large parts of the country is asking for trouble.

    Would we think the Prime Minister of Spain had been humiliated if Catalonia left? Or the Prime Minister of Canada if Quebec left?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,492
    FrankBooth said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrankBooth said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrankBooth said:

    fpt in reply to TSE

    ?

    I r.
    Oh.
    All Dave and the Tories would have to do is remind people, the Tories said Devolution would inexorably lead to Scottish Independence, and George Robertson said "Devolution would kill Scottish Nationalism stone dead"
    To which people would reply 'Who is George Robertson?' Cameron knows he'd be a humiliated figure on the world stage. Imagine your wife running off with someone like Alex Salmond. I think blaming devolution is nonsense. Most countries have some kind of regional or state governance. For the UK to be different particularly when Westminster is so out of touch with large parts of the country is asking for trouble.
    Put it this way, there's more chance of Nick Clegg losing Sheffield Hallam than Dave resigning if Scotland votes yes.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Socrates said:

    SeanT said:



    I am pretty certain Cameron would resign if he lost Scotland. He has just enough of that old fashioned Old Etonian do-the-decent thing High Toryism in him; he'd see no moral alternative.

    However the notion is, of course, being strenuously denied so it doesn't give Scots another reason to vote YES.

    The only evidence that he's that sort of person is his attendance at Eton. Yet his behaviour suggests he's not that sort of guy: he doesn't show a firm attachment to traditional liberal conservative principles, he doesn't have the decorum to stop his calling others "fruitcakes and racists", he doesn't have the usual modesty (e.g. "I think I'd be pretty good at it.").
    The evidence has shown his comment about UKIP being mostly full of racists, loonies fruitcakes isn't exactly inaccurate.

    And heaven forfend we have a Prime Minister with the self confidence in himself.
    You can make an argument it's justifiable in both cases, but it's certainly not the sort of behaviour you would expect from an "old fashioned Old Etonian do-the-decent thing High Tory". Such a person would always be outwardly modest, polite about others and value principle over personal advantage. Cameron's just not that sort of guy.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,492
    Socrates said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Socrates said:

    SeanT said:



    I am pretty certain Cameron would resign if he lost Scotland. He has just enough of that old fashioned Old Etonian do-the-decent thing High Toryism in him; he'd see no moral alternative.

    However the notion is, of course, being strenuously denied so it doesn't give Scots another reason to vote YES.

    The only evidence that he's that sort of person is his attendance at Eton. Yet his behaviour suggests he's not that sort of guy: he doesn't show a firm attachment to traditional liberal conservative principles, he doesn't have the decorum to stop his calling others "fruitcakes and racists", he doesn't have the usual modesty (e.g. "I think I'd be pretty good at it.").
    The evidence has shown his comment about UKIP being mostly full of racists, loonies fruitcakes isn't exactly inaccurate.

    And heaven forfend we have a Prime Minister with the self confidence in himself.
    You can make an argument it's justifiable in both cases, but it's certainly not the sort of behaviour you would expect from an "old fashioned Old Etonian do-the-decent thing High Tory". Such a person would always be outwardly modest, polite about others and value principle over personal advantage. Cameron's just not that sort of guy.
    Well that's what you get when you stereotype.

    People turn out not what you expect them to be.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Socrates said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Socrates said:

    SeanT said:



    I am pretty certain Cameron would resign if he lost Scotland. He has just enough of that old fashioned Old Etonian do-the-decent thing High Toryism in him; he'd see no moral alternative.

    However the notion is, of course, being strenuously denied so it doesn't give Scots another reason to vote YES.

    The only evidence that he's that sort of person is his attendance at Eton. Yet his behaviour suggests he's not that sort of guy: he doesn't show a firm attachment to traditional liberal conservative principles, he doesn't have the decorum to stop his calling others "fruitcakes and racists", he doesn't have the usual modesty (e.g. "I think I'd be pretty good at it.").
    The evidence has shown his comment about UKIP being mostly full of racists, loonies fruitcakes isn't exactly inaccurate.

    And heaven forfend we have a Prime Minister with the self confidence in himself.
    You can make an argument it's justifiable in both cases, but it's certainly not the sort of behaviour you would expect from an "old fashioned Old Etonian do-the-decent thing High Tory". Such a person would always be outwardly modest, polite about others and value principle over personal advantage. Cameron's just not that sort of guy.
    Well that's what you get when you stereotype.

    People turn out not what you expect them to be.
    Perhaps, but it's also enough evidence to accept that Cameron wouldn't be motivated by High Tory ideals to resign in the case of Scottish independence. He'll cling on with everything he's got.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    FrankBooth said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrankBooth said:

    fpt in reply to TSE

    And would those be Tory brown-nose journalists? As for senior Tories, what would you expect them to say? Perhaps Brogan let his personal feelings on the Union get in the way? I just wonder whether Brogan's crime was to break confidence. And we're assuming Cameron would have a choice in the matter. Miliband and Farage would surely call for his immediate resignation for putting us in a constitutional crisis. What would Clegg do? I guess he'd follow the polls. Once people realise the political mess we'd be in, things could move very quickly against Cameron. His one saving grace might be the fact we have a general election on the horizon.

    I'd like to see some polling on what people think Cameron should do if Scotland votes for independence? Why aren't pollsters asking this question?

    I believe people at the Guardian dismissed the story as well.

    IIRC last year, YouGov asked should Dave resign if Scotland votes yes, the voters said no, and most of the blame was apportioned to Labour and Margaret Thatcher.
    Miliband would call for his resignation.
    When a "Yes" vote would have been delivered by Scottish Labour voters?

  • hamiltonacehamiltonace Posts: 698
    Following on from discussion last night as to the difference between Panelbase and Mori on Scottish independence. Here are the key differences.

    1. Panelbase shows that only 68% of Yes voters are SNP supporters while Mori has it at 88%.

    2. Panelbase weights SNP voter base at 37% while Mori has them at 32%

    3. Panelbase finds a third of Labour will support Yes while Mori has only 10%

    4. Panelbase has 25% of its panel who did not vote at Holyrood last time or can't remember how they voted while Mori has 10%.

    (note that because of 2 and 4 together, almost 50% of Panelbase voters who voted last time at Holyrood voted for the SNP).

    On 3 both Mori and Panelbase are quiet consistent over time so this may be down to whether internet polling or phone polling works better.




  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    FrankBooth said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrankBooth said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrankBooth said:

    fpt in reply to TSE

    And would those be Tory brown-nose journalists? As for senior Tories, what would you expect them to say? Perhaps Brogan let his personal feelings on the Union get in the way? I just wonder whether Brogan's crime was to break confidence. And we're assuming Cameron would have a choice in the matter. Miliband and Farage would surely call for his immediate resignation for putting us in a constitutional crisis. What would Clegg do? I guess he'd follow the polls. Once people realise the political mess we'd be in, things could move very quickly against Cameron. His one saving grace might be the fact we have a general election on the horizon.

    I'd like to see some polling on what people think Cameron should do if Scotland votes for independence? Why aren't pollsters asking this question?

    I believe people at the Guardian dismissed the story as well.

    IIRC last year, YouGov asked should Dave resign if Scotland votes yes, the voters said no, and most of the blame was apportioned to Labour and Margaret Thatcher.
    Okay but you can be sure that Farage and Miliband would call for his resignation. The Telegraph, The Mail and The Guardian would likely follow suit. We would be in a constitutional mess that might get worse in 2015. What would Clegg do? I don't know. But surely there would be dissent from both the Lib Dem and Tory backbenches. Consider that one of the reasons Cameron maintains support from his backbenchers is that he is pledged to holding a referendum on EU membership in 2017. So whilst we have a very difficult negotiation with Scotland over independence, we would simultaneously be renegotiating our relationship with the EU. Is that plausible? It might be if we assume that the EU renegotiation is only likely to be cosmetic anyway. Would he really maintain the backing of his own party?

    My guess is Cameron has changed his mind. Initially he probably told confidants he'd resign if the 'unthinkable' happened. Now it looks possible he's suddenly realised he wouldn't want to go. He may have no choice in the matter though.
    All Dave and the Tories would have to do is remind people, the Tories said Devolution would inexorably lead to Scottish Independence, and George Robertson said "Devolution would kill Scottish Nationalism stone dead"
    Cameron knows he'd be a humiliated figure on the world stage.
    For respecting the democratic will of the people of Scotland? Oh, among dictators and autocrats you mean?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    The public have a default bias towards wanting resignations (cf the other two percentages). But the fact that 43% of Labour supporters want him to go is noteworthy.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 45,110
    edited June 2014
    FrankBooth said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:



    [edited for space]



    All Dave and the Tories would have to do is remind people, the Tories said Devolution would inexorably lead to Scottish Independence, and George Robertson said "Devolution would kill Scottish Nationalism stone dead"

    To which people would reply 'Who is George Robertson?' Cameron knows he'd be a humiliated figure on the world stage. Imagine your wife running off with someone like Alex Salmond. I think blaming devolution is nonsense. Most countries have some kind of regional or state governance. For the UK to be different particularly when Westminster is so out of touch with large parts of the country is asking for trouble.
    Interesting comments from all. Wonder if there's another factor - the need to claim that the new EWNI is the same old United Kingdom and a successor state to all its international goodies such as the UN high table seat, even if its founding constitutional documents of 1706-7 had effectively been (if not perhaps de jure) torn up. Getting rid of Mr Cameron would not help in this endeavour, would it?

    One might also plead that - with the exception of refusing proper devo-max (not the ridiculous and misleadingly named version currently being touted) - he had very little choice in the matter, and even the devomax issue was because his own party would never have supported it. He also did not make the mistake of refusing a referendum Madrid-style.

    The question would then be, who was in charge of the No campaign and made the key decisions?

    And resigning on principle has been out of date since Crichel Down and Mrs T's Foreign Minister when the Falllands war broke out (IIRC).

    But early (still) days yet for all of us. Footie first.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Cameron to resign ?

    He would just have ensured 53 less opposition MPs for the GE - Con maj would be nailed on.

    Ed Miliband would have to throw in the towel.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    " almost 50% of Panelbase voters who voted last time at Holyrood voted for the SNP)."

    Hmmm.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,492
    FYI the Times website has been hacked by the Syrian Electronic Army.

    It's a bit grim.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,848
    TheWatcher said:

    Anorak said:

    Might I recommend you view the tail-end of the previous thread. It seems that someone hasn't spotted the new one :)

    Leave Malcolm be.

    He's knocked back a few whiskies and is relaxing before his minicab shift starts.
    You not crawled back under your rock yet
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,492
    antifrank said:

    The public have a default bias towards wanting resignations (cf the other two percentages). But the fact that 43% of Labour supporters want him to go is noteworthy.

    Labour supporters must feel like a Carthiginian soldier just before Zama.

    They know they have an inept strategist and tactician in charge and they are going to endure a humiliating defeat soon

  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,577
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Socrates said:

    SeanT said:



    I am pretty certain Cameron would resign if he lost Scotland. He has just enough of that old fashioned Old Etonian do-the-decent thing High Toryism in him; he'd see no moral alternative.

    However the notion is, of course, being strenuously denied so it doesn't give Scots another reason to vote YES.

    The only evidence that he's that sort of person is his attendance at Eton. Yet his behaviour suggests he's not that sort of guy: he doesn't show a firm attachment to traditional liberal conservative principles, he doesn't have the decorum to stop his calling others "fruitcakes and racists", he doesn't have the usual modesty (e.g. "I think I'd be pretty good at it.").
    The evidence has shown his comment about UKIP being mostly full of racists, loonies fruitcakes isn't exactly inaccurate.

    And heaven forfend we have a Prime Minister with the self confidence in himself.
    And still you post this garbage TSE. Would you like me to repeat those links to all the Tory councilors who have proved themselves to be racists, fruitcakes and loonies and who the Tory party is still happy to support as councilors?

    Gay bashing Tory councilors, for example, are by no means an endangered species. The difference is that UKIP generally dump their racists and loonies whilst the Tories just pretend theirs hacve done nothing wrong and let them carry on.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    TGOHF said:

    Cameron to resign ?

    He would just have ensured 53 less opposition MPs for the GE - Con maj would be nailed on.

    Ed Miliband would have to throw in the towel.

    No he wouldn't. Scotland would remain in the UK and vote in the 2015 election.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,848
    Anorak said:

    Might I recommend you view the tail-end of the previous thread. It seems that someone hasn't spotted the new one :)

    Another Thicko , do you think people do not view threads after a new one has started. You are well suited to the cretins you relate with on here.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,027
    FrankBooth said:

    TGOHF said:

    Cameron to resign ?

    He would just have ensured 53 less opposition MPs for the GE - Con maj would be nailed on.

    Ed Miliband would have to throw in the towel.

    No he wouldn't. Scotland would remain in the UK and vote in the 2015 election.
    From a betting perspective that is crucial.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,492
    Ipsos tables out

    http://ipsos-mori.co.uk/researchpublications/researcharchive/3397/Ipsos-MORI-Political-Monitor-June-2014.aspx
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,531
    Cameron has never held back from calling a spade a spade.
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Socrates said:

    SeanT said:



    I am pretty certain Cameron would resign if he lost Scotland. He has just enough of that old fashioned Old Etonian do-the-decent thing High Toryism in him; he'd see no moral alternative.

    However the notion is, of course, being strenuously denied so it doesn't give Scots another reason to vote YES.

    The only evidence that he's that sort of person is his attendance at Eton. Yet his behaviour suggests he's not that sort of guy: he doesn't show a firm attachment to traditional liberal conservative principles, he doesn't have the decorum to stop his calling others "fruitcakes and racists", he doesn't have the usual modesty (e.g. "I think I'd be pretty good at it.").
    The evidence has shown his comment about UKIP being mostly full of racists, loonies fruitcakes isn't exactly inaccurate.

    And heaven forfend we have a Prime Minister with the self confidence in himself.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    FrankBooth said:

    TGOHF said:

    Cameron to resign ?

    He would just have ensured 53 less opposition MPs for the GE - Con maj would be nailed on.

    Ed Miliband would have to throw in the towel.

    No he wouldn't. Scotland would remain in the UK and vote in the 2015 election.
    That isn't a given.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    antifrank said:

    The public have a default bias towards wanting resignations (cf the other two percentages). But the fact that 43% of Labour supporters want him to go is noteworthy.

    Labour supporters must feel like a Carthiginian soldier just before Zama.

    They know they have an inept strategist and tactician in charge and they are going to endure a humiliating defeat soon

    Are you betting on a Tory victory next year?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,492
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Socrates said:

    SeanT said:



    I am pretty certain Cameron would resign if he lost Scotland. He has just enough of that old fashioned Old Etonian do-the-decent thing High Toryism in him; he'd see no moral alternative.

    However the notion is, of course, being strenuously denied so it doesn't give Scots another reason to vote YES.

    The only evidence that he's that sort of person is his attendance at Eton. Yet his behaviour suggests he's not that sort of guy: he doesn't show a firm attachment to traditional liberal conservative principles, he doesn't have the decorum to stop his calling others "fruitcakes and racists", he doesn't have the usual modesty (e.g. "I think I'd be pretty good at it.").
    The evidence has shown his comment about UKIP being mostly full of racists, loonies fruitcakes isn't exactly inaccurate.

    And heaven forfend we have a Prime Minister with the self confidence in himself.
    And still you post this garbage TSE. Would you like me to repeat those links to all the Tory councilors who have proved themselves to be racists, fruitcakes and loonies and who the Tory party is still happy to support as councilors?

    Gay bashing Tory councilors, for example, are by no means an endangered species. The difference is that UKIP generally dump their racists and loonies whilst the Tories just pretend theirs hacve done nothing wrong and let them carry on.
    For the avoidance of doubt Richard, all parties have loonies, racists and fruitcakes.

    My point is perceptions matter than facts sometimes.

    And the perception is that Dave was right.

    The polling backed that up.

  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    malcolmg said:

    TheWatcher said:

    Anorak said:

    Might I recommend you view the tail-end of the previous thread. It seems that someone hasn't spotted the new one :)

    Leave Malcolm be.

    He's knocked back a few whiskies and is relaxing before his minicab shift starts.
    You not crawled back under your rock yet
    The Stone of Scone?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,492
    FrankBooth said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    antifrank said:

    The public have a default bias towards wanting resignations (cf the other two percentages). But the fact that 43% of Labour supporters want him to go is noteworthy.

    Labour supporters must feel like a Carthiginian soldier just before Zama.

    They know they have an inept strategist and tactician in charge and they are going to endure a humiliating defeat soon

    Are you betting on a Tory victory next year?
    No. I've been laying a Tory majority for a while now.

    See my piece from last year why I'm doing so.

    http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/08/22/history-suggests-the-tories-will-see-their-share-of-the-vote-decline-in-2015-2/
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,577
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Socrates said:

    SeanT said:



    I am pretty certain Cameron would resign if he lost Scotland. He has just enough of that old fashioned Old Etonian do-the-decent thing High Toryism in him; he'd see no moral alternative.

    However the notion is, of course, being strenuously denied so it doesn't give Scots another reason to vote YES.

    The only evidence that he's that sort of person is his attendance at Eton. Yet his behaviour suggests he's not that sort of guy: he doesn't show a firm attachment to traditional liberal conservative principles, he doesn't have the decorum to stop his calling others "fruitcakes and racists", he doesn't have the usual modesty (e.g. "I think I'd be pretty good at it.").
    The evidence has shown his comment about UKIP being mostly full of racists, loonies fruitcakes isn't exactly inaccurate.

    And heaven forfend we have a Prime Minister with the self confidence in himself.
    And still you post this garbage TSE. Would you like me to repeat those links to all the Tory councilors who have proved themselves to be racists, fruitcakes and loonies and who the Tory party is still happy to support as councilors?

    Gay bashing Tory councilors, for example, are by no means an endangered species. The difference is that UKIP generally dump their racists and loonies whilst the Tories just pretend theirs hacve done nothing wrong and let them carry on.
    For the avoidance of doubt Richard, all parties have loonies, racists and fruitcakes.

    My point is perceptions matter than facts sometimes.

    And the perception is that Dave was right.

    The polling backed that up.

    He wasn't talking about public perception, he was talking about fact. Indeed he tried to set the public perception by making the statement.

    And why did he do it? Because he was upset that UKIP tried to use a FOI request to reveal who the private backers were donating to the Tory party.

    And you have just perpetuated his lies by making the same claim.

    "The evidence has shown his comment about UKIP being mostly full of racists, loonies fruitcakes isn't exactly inaccurate."

    No mention of public perception there.

    Trying to rewrite history is a poor way of making an argument
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,531
    Twitter
    olivercoppard ‏@olivercoppard 7m
    We're working to win in Sheffield Hallam. Can you help us beat Nick Clegg by being 1 of just 200 people donating £5? https://yoomee.nationbuilder.com/donate?recruiter_id=2367 …
  • shadsyshadsy Posts: 289
    If anyone thinks Cameron will be out this year or next, I've written a piece on how the betting has looked in advance of previous Tory leadership contests:
    http://politicalbookie.wordpress.com/2014/06/18/tory-leadership-contests-a-betting-history/
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,531
    Twitter
    BBC Politics ‏@BBCPolitics 3m
    Senior Lib Dems are urging Nick Clegg to back a referendum on Britain's EU membership, a source confirms to the BBC. http://bbc.in/1vQKSnC
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,027
    fitalass said:

    Twitter
    olivercoppard ‏@olivercoppard 7m
    We're working to win in Sheffield Hallam. Can you help us beat Nick Clegg by being 1 of just 200 people donating £5? https://yoomee.nationbuilder.com/donate?recruiter_id=2367 …

    He is on 8 donors so far.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Ipsos tables out

    http://ipsos-mori.co.uk/researchpublications/researcharchive/3397/Ipsos-MORI-Political-Monitor-June-2014.aspx

    Thanks. I was a bit previous in my observation that the Lib Dems appeared to have ticked up in the Scottish subsamples - Mori has them back down firmly in single figures.

    Interesting that in this poll there is a net direct swing from Labour to Conservatives. Ten Labour 2010 voters say they will now vote Conservative, with only seven going in the other direction.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,193
    Interesting that the RCN are calling for more NHS charging. I'd be against blanket appointment fees, but have long thought charges should be applied to those who fail to attend.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/healthnews/10907218/Patients-should-be-charged-10-to-see-GP.html
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,848
    TheWatcher said:

    malcolmg said:

    TheWatcher said:

    Anorak said:

    Might I recommend you view the tail-end of the previous thread. It seems that someone hasn't spotted the new one :)

    Leave Malcolm be.

    He's knocked back a few whiskies and is relaxing before his minicab shift starts.
    You not crawled back under your rock yet
    The Stone of Scone?
    A scone would make more sense than the drivel you post for sure
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    fitalass said:

    Twitter
    olivercoppard ‏@olivercoppard 7m
    We're working to win in Sheffield Hallam. Can you help us beat Nick Clegg by being 1 of just 200 people donating £5? https://yoomee.nationbuilder.com/donate?recruiter_id=2367 …

    Interesting but how could I feel sure that the money would be spent in Sheffield Hallam and not elsewhere? Certainly if the local parties had similar campaigns running in Yeovil or Inverness I'd consider donating.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    OblitusSumMe said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Ipsos tables out

    http://ipsos-mori.co.uk/researchpublications/researcharchive/3397/Ipsos-MORI-Political-Monitor-June-2014.aspx

    Thanks. I was a bit previous in my observation that the Lib Dems appeared to have ticked up in the Scottish subsamples - Mori has them back down firmly in single figures.

    Interesting that in this poll there is a net direct swing from Labour to Conservatives. Ten Labour 2010 voters say they will now vote Conservative, with only seven going in the other direction.
    However, among those certain to vote the net balance is one in favour of Labour.

  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    fitalass said:

    Twitter
    BBC Politics ‏@BBCPolitics 3m
    Senior Lib Dems are urging Nick Clegg to back a referendum on Britain's EU membership, a source confirms to the BBC. http://bbc.in/1vQKSnC

    It seems like something that would give them a lot of cover on the doorstep for their previous "party of in" madness. Also a good weapon to use against Labour.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,193
    It's 199 years since Britain allied with the Germans and the Dutch to reshape Europe and beat back unifying centralism.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,531
    edited June 2014
    Danny Alexander has been a well liked and hard working local MP in his constituency, I think that a concerted decapitation strategy by his opponents would have the opposite effect than was intended. The SNP may fancy their chances in this seat, but equally, I would expect Alexander to be one of the high profile Better Together MP's who may get a bounce on the back of a comfortable No vote.
    FrankBooth said:

    fitalass said:

    Twitter
    olivercoppard ‏@olivercoppard 7m
    We're working to win in Sheffield Hallam. Can you help us beat Nick Clegg by being 1 of just 200 people donating £5? https://yoomee.nationbuilder.com/donate?recruiter_id=2367 …

    Interesting but how could I feel sure that the money would be spent in Sheffield Hallam and not elsewhere? Certainly if the local parties had similar campaigns running in Yeovil or Inverness I'd consider donating.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,027
    OblitusSumMe said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Ipsos tables out

    http://ipsos-mori.co.uk/researchpublications/researcharchive/3397/Ipsos-MORI-Political-Monitor-June-2014.aspx

    Thanks. I was a bit previous in my observation that the Lib Dems appeared to have ticked up in the Scottish subsamples - Mori has them back down firmly in single figures.

    Interesting that in this poll there is a net direct swing from Labour to Conservatives. Ten Labour 2010 voters say they will now vote Conservative, with only seven going in the other direction.
    Table 2 Lib Dem - Scottish cross tab

    TWO Scottish Lib Dems out of 93/88.

    Carmichael might be the only Scottish Lib Dem left.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Socrates said:

    fitalass said:

    Twitter
    BBC Politics ‏@BBCPolitics 3m
    Senior Lib Dems are urging Nick Clegg to back a referendum on Britain's EU membership, a source confirms to the BBC. http://bbc.in/1vQKSnC

    It seems like something that would give them a lot of cover on the doorstep for their previous "party of in" madness. Also a good weapon to use against Labour.
    More to the point it would allow them to renew the coalition, if that's how the seat arithmetic ends up.

    I seem to recall posting a few weeks ago that they might be amenable to a referendum.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,896
    There'll be frothing.

    'Rory McIlroy opts to play for Ireland at the 2016 Olympics'

    http://tinyurl.com/qbfgnh6
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    malcolmg said:

    TheWatcher said:

    malcolmg said:

    TheWatcher said:

    Anorak said:

    Might I recommend you view the tail-end of the previous thread. It seems that someone hasn't spotted the new one :)

    Leave Malcolm be.

    He's knocked back a few whiskies and is relaxing before his minicab shift starts.
    You not crawled back under your rock yet
    The Stone of Scone?
    A scone would make more sense than the drivel you post for sure
    Ah ha. A new line from your handler.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Socrates said:

    fitalass said:

    Twitter
    BBC Politics ‏@BBCPolitics 3m
    Senior Lib Dems are urging Nick Clegg to back a referendum on Britain's EU membership, a source confirms to the BBC. http://bbc.in/1vQKSnC

    It seems like something that would give them a lot of cover on the doorstep for their previous "party of in" madness. Also a good weapon to use against Labour.
    More to the point it would allow them to renew the coalition, if that's how the seat arithmetic ends up.

    I seem to recall posting a few weeks ago that they might be amenable to a referendum.
    You'll get an apology from me if they do. I still have my suspicions, however. I get the impression this is a PR stunt by a few individuals that want it, rather than a serious consideration by Clegg.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,027
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Socrates said:

    fitalass said:

    Twitter
    BBC Politics ‏@BBCPolitics 3m
    Senior Lib Dems are urging Nick Clegg to back a referendum on Britain's EU membership, a source confirms to the BBC. http://bbc.in/1vQKSnC

    It seems like something that would give them a lot of cover on the doorstep for their previous "party of in" madness. Also a good weapon to use against Labour.
    More to the point it would allow them to renew the coalition, if that's how the seat arithmetic ends up.

    I seem to recall posting a few weeks ago that they might be amenable to a referendum.
    It points to the fact they could be prepared for another coalition too. Or at least C&S of a Conservative Minority administration.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    shadsy said:

    If anyone thinks Cameron will be out this year or next, I've written a piece on how the betting has looked in advance of previous Tory leadership contests:
    http://politicalbookie.wordpress.com/2014/06/18/tory-leadership-contests-a-betting-history/

    Osborne at 33/1 is a great catch, and that article is a valuable reminder to all of us about how rarely front-runners win the leadership. Come to think of it, when was the last time either party leader was replaced by the early front-runner? Clegg was fairly close, but probably not favourite. EdM certainly wasn't. Brown was I guess, but he was more than a front-runner in the traditional sense.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,577
    Theuniondivvie said:

    There'll be frothing.

    'Rory McIlroy opts to play for Ireland at the 2016 Olympics'

    http://tinyurl.com/qbfgnh6

    I suppose (ignoring the most obvious fact that it is entirely his choice) strictly it is correct in so far as his place of birth is the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland which would, in itself, seem to factor against someone from NI representing Great Britain.

    Seems a reasonable choice to me.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited June 2014
    malcolmg said:

    Anorak said:

    Might I recommend you view the tail-end of the previous thread. It seems that someone hasn't spotted the new one :)

    Another Thicko , do you think people do not view threads after a new one has started. You are well suited to the cretins you relate with on here.
    Ooo, I think that's actually - believe it or not - my first malcolmg insult! Thank you.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,718
    ToryJim said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Job applicants do not need to disclose childhood offences, supreme court rules

    Campaigners welcome judges' decision in case of two people who had to reveal police cautions while looking for work

    http://www.theguardian.com/law/2014/jun/18/job-applicants-childhood-offences-supreme-court?CMP=twt_fd

    Absolutely correct for minor offences.
    If I were hiring into a bank I'd like to know if those "minor" offences were offences of dishonesty.

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Socrates said:

    You'll get an apology from me if they do. I still have my suspicions, however. I get the impression this is a PR stunt by a few individuals that want it, rather than a serious consideration by Clegg.

    It wouldn't require an apology - it was (and remains) a judgment call, assessing the probability of possible scenarios.

    I think that the LibDems have been moving slightly in the direction of a referendum for the last couple of months, although there's been nothing very specific until now. I also think it would be politically very awkward for them to make denying voters a choice a sticking point in any coalition negotiations.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,531
    It would be an extremely interesting development if Cameron and the Conservatives ended up bouncing both Clegg and Ed Miliband into backing a pledge to offer an In/Out EU referendum after the next GE. Could well have serious implications for UKIP if that were to happen.
    Socrates said:

    fitalass said:

    Twitter
    BBC Politics ‏@BBCPolitics 3m
    Senior Lib Dems are urging Nick Clegg to back a referendum on Britain's EU membership, a source confirms to the BBC. http://bbc.in/1vQKSnC

    It seems like something that would give them a lot of cover on the doorstep for their previous "party of in" madness. Also a good weapon to use against Labour.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,896
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    There'll be frothing.

    'Rory McIlroy opts to play for Ireland at the 2016 Olympics'

    http://tinyurl.com/qbfgnh6

    I suppose (ignoring the most obvious fact that it is entirely his choice) strictly it is correct in so far as his place of birth is the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland which would, in itself, seem to factor against someone from NI representing Great Britain.

    Seems a reasonable choice to me.
    I agree, not everyone will though.

    Gerry Braiden ‏@GerryBraiden 35 mins
    @GrahamSpiers sprung up on The Falls Road already Graham.
    http://tinyurl.com/mc3obkm


  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,193
    Cyclefree said:

    ToryJim said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Job applicants do not need to disclose childhood offences, supreme court rules

    Campaigners welcome judges' decision in case of two people who had to reveal police cautions while looking for work

    http://www.theguardian.com/law/2014/jun/18/job-applicants-childhood-offences-supreme-court?CMP=twt_fd

    Absolutely correct for minor offences.
    If I were hiring into a bank I'd like to know if those "minor" offences were offences of dishonesty.

    Hmm I'm not sure what relevance it has. Kids do stupid things.
  • CopperSulphateCopperSulphate Posts: 1,119
    Cyclefree said:

    ToryJim said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Job applicants do not need to disclose childhood offences, supreme court rules

    Campaigners welcome judges' decision in case of two people who had to reveal police cautions while looking for work

    http://www.theguardian.com/law/2014/jun/18/job-applicants-childhood-offences-supreme-court?CMP=twt_fd

    Absolutely correct for minor offences.
    If I were hiring into a bank I'd like to know if those "minor" offences were offences of dishonesty.

    And presumably if they were they'd definitely get the job.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Socrates said:

    SeanT said:



    I am pretty certain Cameron would resign if he lost Scotland. He has just enough of that old fashioned Old Etonian do-the-decent thing High Toryism in him; he'd see no moral alternative.

    However the notion is, of course, being strenuously denied so it doesn't give Scots another reason to vote YES.

    The only evidence that he's that sort of person is his attendance at Eton. Yet his behaviour suggests he's not that sort of guy: he doesn't show a firm attachment to traditional liberal conservative principles, he doesn't have the decorum to stop his calling others "fruitcakes and racists", he doesn't have the usual modesty (e.g. "I think I'd be pretty good at it.").
    The evidence has shown his comment about UKIP being mostly full of racists, loonies fruitcakes isn't exactly inaccurate.

    And heaven forfend we have a Prime Minister with the self confidence in himself.
    And still you post this garbage TSE. Would you like me to repeat those links to all the Tory councilors who have proved themselves to be racists, fruitcakes and loonies and who the Tory party is still happy to support as councilors?

    Gay bashing Tory councilors, for example, are by no means an endangered species. The difference is that UKIP generally dump their racists and loonies whilst the Tories just pretend theirs hacve done nothing wrong and let them carry on.
    For the avoidance of doubt Richard, all parties have loonies, racists and fruitcakes.

    My point is perceptions matter than facts sometimes.

    And the perception is that Dave was right.

    The polling backed that up.

    He wasn't talking about public perception, he was talking about fact. Indeed he tried to set the public perception by making the statement.

    And why did he do it? Because he was upset that UKIP tried to use a FOI request to reveal who the private backers were donating to the Tory party.

    And you have just perpetuated his lies by making the same claim.

    "The evidence has shown his comment about UKIP being mostly full of racists, loonies fruitcakes isn't exactly inaccurate."

    No mention of public perception there.

    Trying to rewrite history is a poor way of making an argument
    Even if the same absolute number of Tory and UKIP councillors have said stupid things, as a % of the UKIP councillor base the number is much high.

    "Mostly" is a proportional not an absolute comment
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,584
    To follow on from my recent posts about the UK/London housing bubble, a policy. It should be the tories, but they seem too weak to confront their own supporter base about buy-to-let. Either party should propose a new wealth tax aimed at second properties, 1% of the value on an annual basis. It heads off the silly idea of a mansion tax on primary residences and it would deflate the housing bubble for buy-to-let. In addition to a punitive tax on non-resident ownership of property it would make the housing market function better for working people and families desperate to.get out of the rental sector. It would also be a new attack on empty properties as they would then lose money for their owners.

    A 1% tax on second/non-primary properties. If a Tory bod is reading this then think about it. The party must enhance the lives of working people if it is to win the election. Relying on oldies who are all defecting to UKIP is not going to cut it.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Indeed, by killing stone dead the Conservative argument that a vote for anyone other than the local Tory was a vote for the referendum-denying Miliband it would free many potential UKIP voters to vote UKIP with a clear conscience.
    fitalass said:

    It would be an extremely interesting development if Cameron and the Conservatives ended up bouncing both Clegg and Ed Miliband into backing a pledge to offer an In/Out EU referendum after the next GE. Could well have serious implications for UKIP if that were to happen.

    Socrates said:

    fitalass said:

    Twitter
    BBC Politics ‏@BBCPolitics 3m
    Senior Lib Dems are urging Nick Clegg to back a referendum on Britain's EU membership, a source confirms to the BBC. http://bbc.in/1vQKSnC

    It seems like something that would give them a lot of cover on the doorstep for their previous "party of in" madness. Also a good weapon to use against Labour.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,718
    CopperSulphate said:

    Cyclefree said:

    ToryJim said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Job applicants do not need to disclose childhood offences, supreme court rules

    Campaigners welcome judges' decision in case of two people who had to reveal police cautions while looking for work

    http://www.theguardian.com/law/2014/jun/18/job-applicants-childhood-offences-supreme-court?CMP=twt_fd

    Absolutely correct for minor offences.
    If I were hiring into a bank I'd like to know if those "minor" offences were offences of dishonesty.

    And presumably if they were they'd definitely get the job.
    Not if I had anything to do with it!

    It's a serious point, though. If I were hiring someone to do a job involving children I'd want to know about past misdemeanours, however minor. I would not want to hire anyone into a bank with any sort of question mark over their honesty because experience has shown that this is often a good indicator of later misbehaviour. I would not want to hire anyone into a position of trust who had betrayed that trust in the past or - at the very least - I'd like to know about it so that I could make the assessment as to whether I wanted to trust them.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    MaxPB said:

    To follow on from my recent posts about the UK/London housing bubble, a policy. It should be the tories, but they seem too weak to confront their own supporter base about buy-to-let. Either party should propose a new wealth tax aimed at second properties, 1% of the value on an annual basis. It heads off the silly idea of a mansion tax on primary residences and it would deflate the housing bubble for buy-to-let. In addition to a punitive tax on non-resident ownership of property it would make the housing market function better for working people and families desperate to.get out of the rental sector. It would also be a new attack on empty properties as they would then lose money for their owners.

    A 1% tax on second/non-primary properties. If a Tory bod is reading this then think about it. The party must enhance the lives of working people if it is to win the election. Relying on oldies who are all defecting to UKIP is not going to cut it.

    How would you determine the value?

  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,718
    ToryJim said:

    Cyclefree said:

    ToryJim said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Job applicants do not need to disclose childhood offences, supreme court rules

    Campaigners welcome judges' decision in case of two people who had to reveal police cautions while looking for work

    http://www.theguardian.com/law/2014/jun/18/job-applicants-childhood-offences-supreme-court?CMP=twt_fd

    Absolutely correct for minor offences.
    If I were hiring into a bank I'd like to know if those "minor" offences were offences of dishonesty.

    Hmm I'm not sure what relevance it has. Kids do stupid things.
    Honesty matters. Small lies matter. If a person is prepared to tell lies about small things how can I trust them not to lie about something bigger. There are far too many examples - particularly in banks - where people with such past histories have been let in because people thought it didn't matter and we've seen the results over the last few years. Character matters - and if we're serious about trying to clean up crooked industries - we need not to make it harder for employers to make well-informed judgments about someone's character. We don't do that by keeping them in the dark.

    "The man who is honest in small things will be honest in great. The man who is dishonest in small things will be dishonest in great."
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,193
    MaxPB said:

    To follow on from my recent posts about the UK/London housing bubble, a policy. It should be the tories, but they seem too weak to confront their own supporter base about buy-to-let. Either party should propose a new wealth tax aimed at second properties, 1% of the value on an annual basis. It heads off the silly idea of a mansion tax on primary residences and it would deflate the housing bubble for buy-to-let. In addition to a punitive tax on non-resident ownership of property it would make the housing market function better for working people and families desperate to.get out of the rental sector. It would also be a new attack on empty properties as they would then lose money for their owners.

    A 1% tax on second/non-primary properties. If a Tory bod is reading this then think about it. The party must enhance the lives of working people if it is to win the election. Relying on oldies who are all defecting to UKIP is not going to cut it.

    I think the danger as always is unintended consequences. Any further taxation related to secondary property, particularly BTL would push up rents. Secondly I'm not sure it would necessarily do that much with regards to opening out the property market. We certainly need to look at this but I think we need to be careful. I think it's worth investigating though.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,760
    Socrates said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Socrates said:

    fitalass said:

    Twitter
    BBC Politics ‏@BBCPolitics 3m
    Senior Lib Dems are urging Nick Clegg to back a referendum on Britain's EU membership, a source confirms to the BBC. http://bbc.in/1vQKSnC

    It seems like something that would give them a lot of cover on the doorstep for their previous "party of in" madness. Also a good weapon to use against Labour.
    More to the point it would allow them to renew the coalition, if that's how the seat arithmetic ends up.

    I seem to recall posting a few weeks ago that they might be amenable to a referendum.
    You'll get an apology from me if they do. I still have my suspicions, however. I get the impression this is a PR stunt by a few individuals that want it, rather than a serious consideration by Clegg.
    More conspiratorially, if the Tories are going to try to force a referendum bill through in this parliament using the Parliament Act, a fun way to wreck it would be an amendment to bring it forward. Tories with UKIP challengers wouldn't enjoy explaining the quirks of parliamentary procedure to the voters if they had to vote against the amendment to prevent the bill from dying in the Lords.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    MaxPB said:

    To follow on from my recent posts about the UK/London housing bubble, a policy. It should be the tories, but they seem too weak to confront their own supporter base about buy-to-let. Either party should propose a new wealth tax aimed at second properties, 1% of the value on an annual basis. It heads off the silly idea of a mansion tax on primary residences and it would deflate the housing bubble for buy-to-let. In addition to a punitive tax on non-resident ownership of property it would make the housing market function better for working people and families desperate to.get out of the rental sector. It would also be a new attack on empty properties as they would then lose money for their owners.

    A 1% tax on second/non-primary properties. If a Tory bod is reading this then think about it. The party must enhance the lives of working people if it is to win the election. Relying on oldies who are all defecting to UKIP is not going to cut it.

    That 1% tax would be factored into rents.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,193
    Cyclefree said:

    ToryJim said:

    Cyclefree said:

    ToryJim said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Job applicants do not need to disclose childhood offences, supreme court rules

    Campaigners welcome judges' decision in case of two people who had to reveal police cautions while looking for work

    http://www.theguardian.com/law/2014/jun/18/job-applicants-childhood-offences-supreme-court?CMP=twt_fd

    Absolutely correct for minor offences.
    If I were hiring into a bank I'd like to know if those "minor" offences were offences of dishonesty.

    Hmm I'm not sure what relevance it has. Kids do stupid things.
    Honesty matters. Small lies matter. If a person is prepared to tell lies about small things how can I trust them not to lie about something bigger. There are far too many examples - particularly in banks - where people with such past histories have been let in because people thought it didn't matter and we've seen the results over the last few years. Character matters - and if we're serious about trying to clean up crooked industries - we need not to make it harder for employers to make well-informed judgments about someone's character. We don't do that by keeping them in the dark.

    "The man who is honest in small things will be honest in great. The man who is dishonest in small things will be dishonest in great."
    I agree to an extent, however I think that we shouldn't be prejudicing people because of idiocy in youth. We deserve the option of showing that we are better adults than we were children.
  • CopperSulphateCopperSulphate Posts: 1,119
    Cyclefree said:

    CopperSulphate said:

    Cyclefree said:

    ToryJim said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Job applicants do not need to disclose childhood offences, supreme court rules

    Campaigners welcome judges' decision in case of two people who had to reveal police cautions while looking for work

    http://www.theguardian.com/law/2014/jun/18/job-applicants-childhood-offences-supreme-court?CMP=twt_fd

    Absolutely correct for minor offences.
    If I were hiring into a bank I'd like to know if those "minor" offences were offences of dishonesty.

    And presumably if they were they'd definitely get the job.
    Not if I had anything to do with it!

    It's a serious point, though. If I were hiring someone to do a job involving children I'd want to know about past misdemeanours, however minor. I would not want to hire anyone into a bank with any sort of question mark over their honesty because experience has shown that this is often a good indicator of later misbehaviour. I would not want to hire anyone into a position of trust who had betrayed that trust in the past or - at the very least - I'd like to know about it so that I could make the assessment as to whether I wanted to trust them.
    I hate how employers have all the power these days. They can demand all sorts of checks on potential staff, whereas they could be complete crooks and you wouldn't know anything about it.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,674
    Theuniondivvie said:

    There'll be frothing.

    'Rory McIlroy opts to play for Ireland at the 2016 Olympics'

    http://tinyurl.com/qbfgnh6

    Frothing indeed. Golf, an olympic sport?!
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,857
    CopperSulphate said:

    Cyclefree said:

    CopperSulphate said:

    Cyclefree said:

    ToryJim said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Job applicants do not need to disclose childhood offences, supreme court rules

    Campaigners welcome judges' decision in case of two people who had to reveal police cautions while looking for work

    http://www.theguardian.com/law/2014/jun/18/job-applicants-childhood-offences-supreme-court?CMP=twt_fd

    Absolutely correct for minor offences.
    If I were hiring into a bank I'd like to know if those "minor" offences were offences of dishonesty.

    And presumably if they were they'd definitely get the job.
    Not if I had anything to do with it!

    It's a serious point, though. If I were hiring someone to do a job involving children I'd want to know about past misdemeanours, however minor. I would not want to hire anyone into a bank with any sort of question mark over their honesty because experience has shown that this is often a good indicator of later misbehaviour. I would not want to hire anyone into a position of trust who had betrayed that trust in the past or - at the very least - I'd like to know about it so that I could make the assessment as to whether I wanted to trust them.
    I hate how employers have all the power these days. They can demand all sorts of checks on potential staff, whereas they could be complete crooks and you wouldn't know anything about it.
    Good point and I agree with not allowing onerous checking by employers. However not sure employers have 'all the power' as you state as employers must give valid reasons to refuse somebody a job.
    Think it should be more of a free for all in that employers and employees don't have to give reasons for hiring decisions or disclose past behaviour (unless very serious and related to job).
    We are too regulated and anal as it is in this country
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,706
    edited June 2014
    MaxPB said:

    To follow on from my recent posts about the UK/London housing bubble, a policy. It should be the tories, but they seem too weak to confront their own supporter base about buy-to-let. Either party should propose a new wealth tax aimed at second properties, 1% of the value on an annual basis. It heads off the silly idea of a mansion tax on primary residences and it would deflate the housing bubble for buy-to-let. In addition to a punitive tax on non-resident ownership of property it would make the housing market function better for working people and families desperate to.get out of the rental sector. It would also be a new attack on empty properties as they would then lose money for their owners.

    A 1% tax on second/non-primary properties. If a Tory bod is reading this then think about it. The party must enhance the lives of working people if it is to win the election. Relying on oldies who are all defecting to UKIP is not going to cut it.

    I don't think any property tax that is a function of the value of the property (except at the time of purchase when the value is defined and known) is very useful, as the property value is very hard to benchmark. There are too many variables, be it condition, neighbours, economy, new developments and our current problem of not wanting to revalue all housing stock from the historic (1990s ?) values that are used. It would almost be more useful to calculate on sqm and charge per sqm.

    I think there is a good reason to make additional bands for Council Tax, allowing greater contribution from larger homes.

    You could also charge a surcharge for additional properties owned. It could be council tax x 1.5, x 3.0, whatever, take your pick. I always think that holiday home owners should contribute to the locality they strip housing stock from. Problem is, it is too easy to avoid, ownership in the name of children, wife, company etc. Maybe it is charge based on a combination of ownership, occupation by owner or full time residential occupation by a tenant.

    The problem with surcharges for BTL owners is it the tenants who end up paying.

    I think it is now possible to charge council tax on empty properties, business units only get 3 months grace if unoccupied, I think, not sure about residential, but Councils have 'empty property officers'.
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