politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Remain in EU moves to an 8 point lead in latest YouGov refe

16% is relatively good for UKIP since I think ICM usually has them on a lower rating than other pollsters.

rcs1000 said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Really? They believed the lies they were told at the last EU referendum. Now I would like to think it is a case of not being fooled twice but I am not sure my faith stretches that far.

The principle issue that has catalysed opposition to the EU in recent times has been the flood of immigration from poorer EU members, such as Poland, Romania, etc

Freedom to work across the EU was enshrined in the original Treaty of Rome in the 1950s. In the 1970s it was characterized as a positive for the UK: British builders could go and work in the booming German construction industry! (Hence, eventually, Auf Wiedersehen, Pet).

It would be a great irony that the UK, which did the most to get the ex-Communist countries of Eastern Europe into the EU, left because of them.

Except of course, Mr. Robert, that it has always been possible for Brits to go and work abroad and for people from other countries to come and work here in the UK. The movement of people for purposes of work is not some sort of magic that only occurred because of the EU.

edmundintokyo said:

Charles said:

The best way that UKIP could maximise their chances of winning the referendum would be to voluntarily (no deals) not run against suitable Eurosceptic Tory MPs (and other parties) and aim their fire at the Europhiles

The hitch with this is that with a few exceptions where you sit determines where you stand, so the Europhile Tories will mostly be in seats that are hopeless for UKIP. If they ever want to actually win seats they're going to have to run against relatively like-minded Tories.

If they are serious about maximising the likelihood that Cameron supports 'out' in a referendum, then that doesn't matter. All that is important is that (for example) Ken Clarke loses - that way the balance of the party shifts to the Eurosceptic end. This means that either (a) Cameron will be more likely to support Out or (b) Cameron is more likely to be replaced by a BOOer.

Avery,

"All Cameron needs to do to get Merkel to offer substantial concessions on the EU is to allow Germany to beat England in the latter stages of the World Cup.

Can anyone see any flaw in this argument?"

And how do you propose we manage to stay in the Wold Cup long enough to even play Germany?

Sean_F said:

AveryLP said:

Sean_F said:

Richard N, UKIP supporters want so much more than simply a referendum. And, in advance of such a referendum, it makes as much sense for UKIP supporters to vote UKIP as it does for SNP supporters to vote SNP. One cannot win a referendum without maximising support and electoral representation.

Apart from a traditional livery for trains, no Romanians, uniforms for taxi drivers, and, of course, no Romanians, can you list these additional wants?

Control of immigration, adequate armed forces, protection of personal freedoms, moderate levels of taxation, the kinds of things the Conservatives once stood for.

The Conservatives still stand for all these values.

Taxation Deficit elimination and debt reduction are the priorities but within this constraint tax increases have been limited to 20% of total fiscal consolidation which is the lowest ratio to expenditure cuts of any advanced economy. In addition, corporation and employment taxes have been reduced to incent economic revival. Few doubt that the Conservatives will prioritise tax reduction as the deficit/debt problems resolve.

Immigration Within the constraints imposed by the UK's freedom of labour movement commitments, more is being done by this government to control immigration than any of its predecessors. You could argue Brexit would enable greater control of our borders but that is a separate and much more complex issue which cannot be isolated to immigration policy.

Armed Forces The UK is meeting its NATO commitment to spend more than 4% of GDP on defence even after regrettable but necessary cuts. It is the only major EU country to so do.

Personal Freedoms Personal security is paramount and the freedoms surrendered to maintain liberty are reasonable in current circumstances. No government in power confronted with the reality revealed by intelligence would take a different line. I would prefer though better messaging and more public debate on the core issues.

Frankly I can't see any better alternative. Farage's idea of liberty is the abolition of the Electoral Commission. Need we ask why?

rcs1000 said:

HurstLlama said:

rcs1000 said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Really? They believed the lies they were told at the last EU referendum. Now I would like to think it is a case of not being fooled twice but I am not sure my faith stretches that far.

The principle issue that has catalysed opposition to the EU in recent times has been the flood of immigration from poorer EU members, such as Poland, Romania, etc

Freedom to work across the EU was enshrined in the original Treaty of Rome in the 1950s. In the 1970s it was characterized as a positive for the UK: British builders could go and work in the booming German construction industry! (Hence, eventually, Auf Wiedersehen, Pet).

It would be a great irony that the UK, which did the most to get the ex-Communist countries of Eastern Europe into the EU, left because of them.

Except of course, Mr. Robert, that it has always been possible for Brits to go and work abroad and for people from other countries to come and work here in the UK. The movement of people for purposes of work is not some sort of magic that only occurred because of the EU.

I was directly addressing Mr Tyndall's point about us being lied to in 1973.

And we were not lied to about freedom of movement and freedom to work across the EU.

And that is the primary reason why people are discontented with the EU.

No, you are just picking one area where in fact you know I am not that bothered.

What we were lied to about was the basic aims and intentions of the EEC - the 'ever closer union' and the loss of sovereignty that membership of the 'trading club' would actually entail.

CD13 said:

Avery,

"All Cameron needs to do to get Merkel to offer substantial concessions on the EU is to allow Germany to beat England in the latter stages of the World Cup.

Can anyone see any flaw in this argument?"

And how do you propose we manage to stay in the Wold Cup long enough to even play Germany?

We'll renegotiate the terms of group promotion then put our solution to a FIFA vote.

Easy but expensive.

ICM Crossover?

Charles said:

edmundintokyo said:

Charles said:

The best way that UKIP could maximise their chances of winning the referendum would be to voluntarily (no deals) not run against suitable Eurosceptic Tory MPs (and other parties) and aim their fire at the Europhiles

The hitch with this is that with a few exceptions where you sit determines where you stand, so the Europhile Tories will mostly be in seats that are hopeless for UKIP. If they ever want to actually win seats they're going to have to run against relatively like-minded Tories.

If they are serious about maximising the likelihood that Cameron supports 'out' in a referendum, then that doesn't matter. All that is important is that (for example) Ken Clarke loses - that way the balance of the party shifts to the Eurosceptic end. This means that either (a) Cameron will be more likely to support Out or (b) Cameron is more likely to be replaced by a BOOer.

I would agree with that. Changing the Tory party is the best way to achieve what BOO want - and that cannot happen with a Europhile in charge.

A few more polls with Labour on 32% and a hung parliament is nailed on IMO.

Why are the Lib Dems going big on wanting to sack unqualified teachers? Not very liberal or even that progressive to me.

Hell will freeze over before they suggest MP's should be qualified so why teachers?

edmundintokyo said:

AveryLP said:

CD13 said:

Avery,

"All Cameron needs to do to get Merkel to offer substantial concessions on the EU is to allow Germany to beat England in the latter stages of the World Cup.

Can anyone see any flaw in this argument?"

And how do you propose we manage to stay in the Wold Cup long enough to even play Germany?

We'll renegotiate the terms of group promotion then put our solution to a FIFA vote.

Easy but expensive.

Not sure it's going to be enough to satisfy the fifa-sceptics:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BqIthfACYAAq42V.jpg

Good train livery though.

I thought there was no real problems with the prisons?

"Delay on tougher sentences for knife crime to avoid prison overcrowding"

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/jun/17/delay-tougher-sentences-knife-crime

AndyJS said:

A few more polls with Labour on 32% and a hung parliament is nailed on IMO.

Tories on 31% and down 3 doesnt look like a Tory PM though IMHO

I think Ed might be a drag on the Lab vote but still think very likely to be biggest party and Ed most likely to be PM

New Thread

Smarmeron said:

I thought there was no real problems with the prisons?

"Delay on tougher sentences for knife crime to avoid prison overcrowding"

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/jun/17/delay-tougher-sentences-knife-crime

Hush, Mr Smarmeron, hush. As was noted on here yesterday the numbers of criminals being sent to gaol is increasing. However, the number of crimes is, we are told, decreasing. Trying to reconcile those two facts is likely to cause serious brain fade.