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edited June 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Remain in EU moves to an 8 point lead in latest YouGov referendum poll

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  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,727
    edited June 2014
    This is all down to Nick Clegg and his passionate defence of the EU.

    Also you can see why Kippers are so keen to put Ed into Downing Street, so there'll be no referendum which they would lose.
  • Wat_Tylers_GrandsonWat_Tylers_Grandson Posts: 25
    What amazes me are the 7% of Kippers who want to stay in!
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Also you can see why Kippers are so keen to put Ed into Downing Street, so there'll be no referendum which they would lose.

    Yes, it is increasingly hard to avoid that conclusion. And you can certainly see the logic, for Farage at least. Not so sure about the poor saps who plan to vote UKIP at the GE because they actually want a referendum.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    22% would vote to leave even if there was a 'successful' renegotiation.

    21% of Con
    16% of Lab
    9% of LD

    An argument against peak-UKIP!

    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/65qzen2gxe/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-160614.pdf
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,096
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This is all down to Nick Clegg and his passionate defence of the EU.

    Also you can see why Kippers are so keen to put Ed into Downing Street, so there'll be no referendum which they would lose.

    Getting Ed Miliband into No 10 would be the best way to grow the "Out" campaign for sure. Logically if this is your political raison d'etre then you should vote tactically anti-conservative/pro-UKIP (In that order). Then at GE2020 you stick the Conservatives back in - the chances for winning the referendum for Out are probably best that way I think.

    The last thing you want to do is put a Conservative Gov't in if you want "Out".

    Personally I'd rather we had a say whether that is "In" or "Out" - which is the Conservative position.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    Wat_Tylers_Grandson said:

    What amazes me are the 7% of Kippers who want to stay in!

    That's the MEPs and their families.

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    I'm surprised that Lab voters are so overwhelmingly on the Stay In side. It would be interesting to know why that is; employment law considerations, perhaps? But you'd expect the EU immigration argument to weigh on the other side for quite a lot of Labour voters.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,879
    I thought people didn't care about Europe!
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This is all down to Nick Clegg and his passionate defence of the EU.

    Also you can see why Kippers are so keen to put Ed into Downing Street, so there'll be no referendum which they would lose.

    Getting Ed Miliband into No 10 would be the best way to grow the "Out" campaign for sure. Logically if this is your political raison d'etre then you should vote tactically anti-conservative/pro-UKIP (In that order). Then at GE2020 you stick the Conservatives back in - the chances for winning the referendum for Out are probably best that way I think.

    The last thing you want to do is put a Conservative Gov't in if you want "Out".

    Personally I'd rather we had a say whether that is "In" or "Out" - which is the Conservative position.
    Alternatively a strong "out" splits the Tory vote in perpetuity, leading to the People's Repulic of Miliband for the next 12 years.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited June 2014
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I'm surprised that Lab voters are so overwhelmingly on the Stay In side. It would be interesting to know why that is; employment law considerations, perhaps? But you'd expect the EU immigration argument to weigh on the other side for quite a lot of Labour voters.

    30% of the Labour vote are either urban intellectuals or recent immigrants?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,879
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This is all down to Nick Clegg and his passionate defence of the EU.

    Also you can see why Kippers are so keen to put Ed into Downing Street, so there'll be no referendum which they would lose.

    Dave will only offer us a referendum if he can persuade Angela and Francois to make substantive changes in the UK's relationship with the EU.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "The UK satellite company Inmarsat has told the BBC that the search for the missing Malaysia Airlines jet has yet to go to the area its scientists think is the plane's most likely crash site.":

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-27870467

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b047czkj
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,947
    Still no sign of ICM then? Wonder what the Guardian is up to?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,527
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Also you can see why Kippers are so keen to put Ed into Downing Street, so there'll be no referendum which they would lose.

    Yes, it is increasingly hard to avoid that conclusion. And you can certainly see the logic, for Farage at least. Not so sure about the poor saps who plan to vote UKIP at the GE because they actually want a referendum.
    Few UKIP supporters want to see Milliband in power. It's a mistake to think that the only legitimate choices which people are entitled to make at the next election are to vote Conservative or to vote Labour.

    Saying that UKIP voters want Milliband in power is like saying that Green or Lib Dem voters want Cameron in power because they refuse to vote Labour.

    The fact is that most UKIP, Green, and Lib Dem voters would like neither of the two in power.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,096
    edited June 2014
    Anorak said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This is all down to Nick Clegg and his passionate defence of the EU.

    Also you can see why Kippers are so keen to put Ed into Downing Street, so there'll be no referendum which they would lose.

    Getting Ed Miliband into No 10 would be the best way to grow the "Out" campaign for sure. Logically if this is your political raison d'etre then you should vote tactically anti-conservative/pro-UKIP (In that order). Then at GE2020 you stick the Conservatives back in - the chances for winning the referendum for Out are probably best that way I think.

    The last thing you want to do is put a Conservative Gov't in if you want "Out".

    Personally I'd rather we had a say whether that is "In" or "Out" - which is the Conservative position.
    Alternatively a strong "out" splits the Tory vote in perpetuity, leading to the People's Repulic of Miliband for the next 12 years.
    There won't be a referendum if Labour get in. So no "Out" vote to split the Conservatives ^_~. I thought there might be when those stonking EARLY Local results came in for UKIP early before the Euros but don't think so now.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,727
    GIN1138 said:

    Still no sign of ICM then? Wonder what the Guardian is up to?

    I think they are moving it to Tuesday nights so it doesn't get overshadowed by The Lord Ashcroft poll.

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited June 2014
    Anorak said:

    Alternatively a strong "out" splits the Tory vote in perpetuity, leading to the People's Repulic of Miliband for the next 12 years.

    I think that is a very likely scenario if there is a Miliband government and no referendum, leaving us unable to get rid of a disastrous and extremely unpopular government. It took the left well over a decade to get real after Labour chose Michael Foot as leader.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,193
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Still no sign of ICM then? Wonder what the Guardian is up to?

    I think they are moving it to Tuesday nights so it doesn't get overshadowed by The Lord Ashcroft poll.

    Sensible.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,096
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This is all down to Nick Clegg and his passionate defence of the EU.

    Also you can see why Kippers are so keen to put Ed into Downing Street, so there'll be no referendum which they would lose.

    Dave will only offer us a referendum if he can persuade Angela and Francois to make substantive changes in the UK's relationship with the EU.
    He'll have got rid of stuff that was never there to start with - the FTT I reckon will be the big "concession" Europe gives us on a renegotiation.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This is all down to Nick Clegg and his passionate defence of the EU.

    Also you can see why Kippers are so keen to put Ed into Downing Street, so there'll be no referendum which they would lose.

    Dave will only offer us a referendum if he can persuade Angela and Francois to make substantive changes in the UK's relationship with the EU.
    As I understand it the Conservatives current position is not to attempt to gain better terms for the UK, but to reform the EU for all member states.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited June 2014
    Sean_F said:

    Few UKIP supporters want to see Milliband in power. It's a mistake to think that the only legitimate choices which people are entitled to make at the next election are to vote Conservative or to vote Labour.

    Saying that UKIP voters want Milliband in power is like saying that Green or Lib Dem voters want Cameron in power because they refuse to vote Labour.

    The fact is that most UKIP, Green, and Lib Dem voters would like neither of the two in power.

    UKIP's situation is not comparable to that of the Greens or LibDems, because UKIP are working directly to prevent what they claim to want. Having laid into Cameron for not calling a referendum, they are now laying into him for pledging to call a referendum, and trying to sabotage it, whilst at the same time Farage says he'll do a 'deal with the devil' to get a referendum in the next parliament.

    It is the most incoherent political party I have ever come across.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,096
    How do ICM weight btw

    Is it 10 out of 10s only and then a spiral of silence adjustment for "Don't knows" ?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,764
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Anorak said:

    Alternatively a strong "out" splits the Tory vote in perpetuity, leading to the People's Repulic of Miliband for the next 12 years.

    I think that is a very likely scenario if there is a Miliband government and no referendum, leaving us unable to get rid of a disastrous and extremely unpopular government. It took the left well over a decade to get real after Labour chose Michael Foot as leader.
    The LibDems could bounce back very fast in that scenario, while the Labour base gets hollowed out by UKIP at the other end. Four parties, 23% each, all kinds of amazing FPTP madness?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,583
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This is all down to Nick Clegg and his passionate defence of the EU.

    Also you can see why Kippers are so keen to put Ed into Downing Street, so there'll be no referendum which they would lose.

    Nope this is all down to the EU and the arguments for and against not registering highly on people's perceptions at the moment. When it actually comes to a referendum campaign - or when the next EU idiocy emerges - then things will move back in the other direction again.

    At the moment the general assumption amongst the public - of it is registering at all - is that Cameron will be able to make the sorts of meaningful changes to the UK/EU relationship that will make it worth staying in.

    The real question is what Cameron will do when he has nothing to offer the British public from his 'renegotiations'. Will he be honest and admit we have no real influence as far as the direction of the EU is concerned or will he lie and pretend he has achieved something of substance?


  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Atrocious poll for the Lib Dems?
    GIN1138 said:

    Still no sign of ICM then? Wonder what the Guardian is up to?

  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,583
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Sean_F said:

    Few UKIP supporters want to see Milliband in power. It's a mistake to think that the only legitimate choices which people are entitled to make at the next election are to vote Conservative or to vote Labour.

    Saying that UKIP voters want Milliband in power is like saying that Green or Lib Dem voters want Cameron in power because they refuse to vote Labour.

    The fact is that most UKIP, Green, and Lib Dem voters would like neither of the two in power.

    UKIP's situation is not comparable to that of the Greens or LibDems, because UKIP are working directly to prevent what they claim to want. Having laid into Camerion for not calling a referendum, they are now laying into him for pledging to call a referendum, and trying to sabotage it, whilst at the same time Farage says he'll do a 'deal with the devil' to get a referendum in the next parliament.

    It is the most incoherent political party I have ever come across.
    UKIP want to leave the EU. That will not happen whilst Cameron is in charge of any referendum. You can moan about this all you like but in the end Cameron is the problem not the solution.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    The real question is what Cameron will do when he has nothing to offer the British public from his 'renegotiations'. Will he be honest and admit we have no real influence as far as the direction of the EU is concerned or will he lie and pretend he has achieved something of substance?


    That is not a real question at all. I can answer it immediately with 100% certainty: whatever the results of the renegotiation, and whatever he says about it, you will say he is lying about it.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Ishmael_X said:

    Wat_Tylers_Grandson said:

    What amazes me are the 7% of Kippers who want to stay in!

    That's the MEPs and their families.

    including their "nieces" I'm surprised it's only 7% ;-)
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited June 2014
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    UKIP want to leave the EU. That will not happen whilst Cameron is in charge of any referendum. You can moan about this all you like but in the end Cameron is the problem not the solution.

    So Farage is lying when he says he wants a referendum in the next parliament, and will do a deal with anyone to get it?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,583
    Pulpstar said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This is all down to Nick Clegg and his passionate defence of the EU.

    Also you can see why Kippers are so keen to put Ed into Downing Street, so there'll be no referendum which they would lose.

    Dave will only offer us a referendum if he can persuade Angela and Francois to make substantive changes in the UK's relationship with the EU.
    He'll have got rid of stuff that was never there to start with - the FTT I reckon will be the big "concession" Europe gives us on a renegotiation.
    Not much chance of success there either. Even if he gets an exemption from the FTT it won't be long before the EU decides this is illegal.

    This is the latest idiocy.

    "EU legal opinion says exemption for UK bank rules from EU curbs 'illegal'"

    http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/06/16/us-banks-britain-eu-idINKBN0ER2IA20140616
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,764
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    The real question is what Cameron will do when he has nothing to offer the British public from his 'renegotiations'. Will he be honest and admit we have no real influence as far as the direction of the EU is concerned or will he lie and pretend he has achieved something of substance?


    That is not a real question at all. I can answer it immediately with 100% certainty: whatever the results of the renegotiation, and whatever he says about it, you will say he is lying about it.
    TBF he'll be right. Look at the AV campaign and the Scottish campaign: Referendums are almost entirely fought based on lies. There's no realistic prospect that Cameron's going to suddenly depart from that tradition and start telling the truth.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Wat_Tylers_Grandson said:

    What amazes me are the 7% of Kippers who want to stay in!

    Why? Some pro-EU voters probably think it would be good for democracy to have a referendum.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,583
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    The real question is what Cameron will do when he has nothing to offer the British public from his 'renegotiations'. Will he be honest and admit we have no real influence as far as the direction of the EU is concerned or will he lie and pretend he has achieved something of substance?


    That is not a real question at all. I can answer it immediately with 100% certainty: whatever the results of the renegotiation, and whatever he says about it, you will say he is lying about it.
    Of course he will. He has already committed to meaningless negotiations and tried to pretend they can achieve something substantial. It is only party fanatics like yourself who don't see this.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edmundintokyo said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Anorak said:

    Alternatively a strong "out" splits the Tory vote in perpetuity, leading to the People's Repulic of Miliband for the next 12 years.

    I think that is a very likely scenario if there is a Miliband government and no referendum, leaving us unable to get rid of a disastrous and extremely unpopular government. It took the left well over a decade to get real after Labour chose Michael Foot as leader.
    The LibDems could bounce back very fast in that scenario, while the Labour base gets hollowed out by UKIP at the other end. Four parties, 23% each, all kinds of amazing FPTP madness?
    doubt the tarnish will come off that quickly.

    More likely UKIP and the Greens benefit.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited June 2014
    edmundintokyo said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Anorak said:

    Alternatively a strong "out" splits the Tory vote in perpetuity, leading to the People's Repulic of Miliband for the next 12 years.

    I think that is a very likely scenario if there is a Miliband government and no referendum, leaving us unable to get rid of a disastrous and extremely unpopular government. It took the left well over a decade to get real after Labour chose Michael Foot as leader.
    The LibDems could bounce back very fast in that scenario, while the Labour base gets hollowed out by UKIP at the other end. Four parties, 23% each, all kinds of amazing FPTP madness?
    Surely it's just as likely that the Greens would benefit from an unpopular Labour government?

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,096
    AndyJS said:

    Wat_Tylers_Grandson said:

    What amazes me are the 7% of Kippers who want to stay in!

    Why? Some pro-EU voters probably think it would be good for democracy to have a referendum.
    You should definitely vote Conservative if this is your position
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,583
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    UKIP want to leave the EU. That will not happen whilst Cameron is in charge of any referendum. You can moan about this all you like but in the end Cameron is the problem not the solution.

    So Farage is lying when he says he wants a referendum in the next parliament, and will do a deal with anyone to get it?
    I have no idea if he is lying or not. Since he won't be PM it hardly matters. What matters is whether the PM is lying or not and we already know the answer to that one.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,764
    On topic, if you weight for likely turnout among the in and out demographics I wouldn't be confident that "in" would win even on polling like this.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,387
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This is all down to Nick Clegg and his passionate defence of the EU.

    Also you can see why Kippers are so keen to put Ed into Downing Street, so there'll be no referendum which they would lose.

    Nope this is all down to the EU and the arguments for and against not registering highly on people's perceptions at the moment. When it actually comes to a referendum campaign - or when the next EU idiocy emerges - then things will move back in the other direction again.

    At the moment the general assumption amongst the public - of it is registering at all - is that Cameron will be able to make the sorts of meaningful changes to the UK/EU relationship that will make it worth staying in.

    The real question is what Cameron will do when he has nothing to offer the British public from his 'renegotiations'. Will he be honest and admit we have no real influence as far as the direction of the EU is concerned or will he lie and pretend he has achieved something of substance?

    I think TSE's tongue was firmly in his cheek.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    UKIP want to leave the EU. That will not happen whilst Cameron is in charge of any referendum. You can moan about this all you like but in the end Cameron is the problem not the solution.

    So Farage is lying when he says he wants a referendum in the next parliament, and will do a deal with anyone to get it?
    I have no idea if he is lying or not. Since he won't be PM it hardly matters. What matters is whether the PM is lying or not and we already know the answer to that one.
    In which case you'll never get a referendum.

    Miliband ain't gonna offer you one.

    Why bother then?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,764
    anotherDave said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Anorak said:

    Alternatively a strong "out" splits the Tory vote in perpetuity, leading to the People's Repulic of Miliband for the next 12 years.

    I think that is a very likely scenario if there is a Miliband government and no referendum, leaving us unable to get rid of a disastrous and extremely unpopular government. It took the left well over a decade to get real after Labour chose Michael Foot as leader.
    The LibDems could bounce back very fast in that scenario, while the Labour base gets hollowed out by UKIP at the other end. Four parties, 23% each, all kinds of amazing FPTP madness?
    Surely it's just as likely that the Greens would benefit from an unpopular Labour government?

    In theory, but the lay of the land should be pretty good for them now as well but their results seem a bit meh - not sure what the problem is.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Richard_Tyndall said:


    Of course he will. He has already committed to meaningless negotiations and tried to pretend they can achieve something substantial. It is only party fanatics like yourself who don't see this.

    You've got cause and effect the wrong way round.

    I am not at all a party fanatic, that is a ridiculous statement. I am a realist, who wants good government. The choice on offer is a Labour-led government under Miliband - who I am pretty sure will be the worst PM for decades, worse even than Brown - or a Conservative-led government under Cameron, who has run the best government we have had, apart from Maggie's, in the half-century I've been following politics. Of course there are flaws and cock-ups, there always are. But there are fewer now than in almost all other governments we have had.

    That is all; I support the Conservatives because they are a serious political party doing a good job. I wasn't a member in the Hague, IDS and Howard years because I didn't think they were serious about wanting to win elections and govern in the interests of the country.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Sean_F said:

    Few UKIP supporters want to see Milliband in power. It's a mistake to think that the only legitimate choices which people are entitled to make at the next election are to vote Conservative or to vote Labour.

    Saying that UKIP voters want Milliband in power is like saying that Green or Lib Dem voters want Cameron in power because they refuse to vote Labour.

    The fact is that most UKIP, Green, and Lib Dem voters would like neither of the two in power.

    UKIP's situation is not comparable to that of the Greens or LibDems, because UKIP are working directly to prevent what they claim to want. Having laid into Camerion for not calling a referendum, they are now laying into him for pledging to call a referendum, and trying to sabotage it, whilst at the same time Farage says he'll do a 'deal with the devil' to get a referendum in the next parliament.

    It is the most incoherent political party I have ever come across.
    UKIP want to leave the EU. That will not happen whilst Cameron is in charge of any referendum. You can moan about this all you like but in the end Cameron is the problem not the solution.
    Cameron won't be "in charge of the referendum", the Electoral Commission will be. UKIP are bottling out of a fair fight they know they cannot win.

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edmundintokyo said:


    TBF he'll be right. Look at the AV campaign and the Scottish campaign: Referendums are almost entirely fought based on lies. There's no realistic prospect that Cameron's going to suddenly depart from that tradition and start telling the truth.

    Yes, the bonkers bit of Richard's position is his touching faith in the magic powers of David Cameron. He seems to think that, if only the In side didn't have this ace striker, they'd lose.

    It's rather sweet.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    edited June 2014
    @Richard_Nabavi

    He should be "ace" he honed his skills in PR before arriving with his CV at party HQ
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,764
    edited June 2014
    Meanwhile on the Commission appointments, Cameron's Plan B, where he magnanimously offered to send the only person he has sacked from his government for incompetence to rule over various peons from smaller countries, seems to be going down less well than he might have hoped:

    http://www.euractiv.com/sections/eu-elections-2014/juncker-seen-rejecting-camerons-eu-commission-reform-plan-302842
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    UKIP want to leave the EU. That will not happen whilst Cameron is in charge of any referendum. You can moan about this all you like but in the end Cameron is the problem not the solution.

    So Farage is lying when he says he wants a referendum in the next parliament, and will do a deal with anyone to get it?
    I have no idea if he is lying or not. Since he won't be PM it hardly matters. What matters is whether the PM is lying or not and we already know the answer to that one.
    No: he's not necessarily lying.

    Your reasoning (as far as I can work out)

    1. Under no circumstances can a renegotiation achieve any substantial concessions
    2. Cameron knows this
    3. Cameron has chosen to lie about it

    Perhaps an alternative construct would be:

    1. Cameron believes that he may (or may not) be able to achieve substantial concessions
    2. He has therefore said that he will try to renegotiate and put the result before the UK public

    (2) seems more logical than (1)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Ashcroft polling:

    Walsall North: Lab 37, UKIP 30, Con 21, LD 8
    Dudley North: Lab 40, UKIP 27, Con 24, LD 4
    Great Grimsby: Lab 38, UKIP 26, Con 21, LD 10
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Ashcroft polling:

    In Amber Valley 67% of LD voters would rule out voting Conservative, in Broxtowe only 38%.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,096
    edmundintokyo said:

    anotherDave said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Anorak said:

    Alternatively a strong "out" splits the Tory vote in perpetuity, leading to the People's Repulic of Miliband for the next 12 years.

    I think that is a very likely scenario if there is a Miliband government and no referendum, leaving us unable to get rid of a disastrous and extremely unpopular government. It took the left well over a decade to get real after Labour chose Michael Foot as leader.
    The LibDems could bounce back very fast in that scenario, while the Labour base gets hollowed out by UKIP at the other end. Four parties, 23% each, all kinds of amazing FPTP madness?
    Surely it's just as likely that the Greens would benefit from an unpopular Labour government?

    In theory, but the lay of the land should be pretty good for them now as well but their results seem a bit meh - not sure what the problem is.
    They did OK in the Euros. Most Greens in Lab-Con marginals just vote Labour at GE time I think tbh. PR would give the greens a massive boost.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,583
    TheWatcher said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    UKIP want to leave the EU. That will not happen whilst Cameron is in charge of any referendum. You can moan about this all you like but in the end Cameron is the problem not the solution.

    So Farage is lying when he says he wants a referendum in the next parliament, and will do a deal with anyone to get it?
    I have no idea if he is lying or not. Since he won't be PM it hardly matters. What matters is whether the PM is lying or not and we already know the answer to that one.
    In which case you'll never get a referendum.

    Miliband ain't gonna offer you one.

    Why bother then?
    TheWatcher said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    UKIP want to leave the EU. That will not happen whilst Cameron is in charge of any referendum. You can moan about this all you like but in the end Cameron is the problem not the solution.

    So Farage is lying when he says he wants a referendum in the next parliament, and will do a deal with anyone to get it?
    I have no idea if he is lying or not. Since he won't be PM it hardly matters. What matters is whether the PM is lying or not and we already know the answer to that one.
    In which case you'll never get a referendum.

    Miliband ain't gonna offer you one.

    Why bother then?
    We will get one eventually and the important point will be that when we get one is that we have one of the main parties in Parliament officially supporting out. That gives us a far better chance of leaving (which is after all the aim) than a rigged referendum held by a Europhile PM like Cameron with the support of a Europhile opposition.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    I don't see where all this intellectualising of UKIP's electoral position is leading us.

    UKIP under Farage is only very tangentially about the UK's membership of the EU.

    It is principally about sticking the boot into Johnny Foreigner and having a laugh at the pub and in the flesh pots of the Mediterranean.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    edited June 2014
    AveryLP said:

    In general though, if you accept that a house purchaser should be rewarded by a 2-3% annual real terms return in capital value on their investment, the housing market is not a major concern at present.

    But how can a house generate a 2-3% annual real terms return on capital value just for existing?

    All you've done is shown that the long-term trend is unsustainable, but that we might be "due" another period of insanity.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,583
    Charles said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    UKIP want to leave the EU. That will not happen whilst Cameron is in charge of any referendum. You can moan about this all you like but in the end Cameron is the problem not the solution.

    So Farage is lying when he says he wants a referendum in the next parliament, and will do a deal with anyone to get it?
    I have no idea if he is lying or not. Since he won't be PM it hardly matters. What matters is whether the PM is lying or not and we already know the answer to that one.
    No: he's not necessarily lying.

    Your reasoning (as far as I can work out)

    1. Under no circumstances can a renegotiation achieve any substantial concessions
    2. Cameron knows this
    3. Cameron has chosen to lie about it

    Perhaps an alternative construct would be:

    1. Cameron believes that he may (or may not) be able to achieve substantial concessions
    2. He has therefore said that he will try to renegotiate and put the result before the UK public

    (2) seems more logical than (1)
    Not at all. If that were the case he would have allowed himself time for a meaningful and enforceable deal.He has not. There is no way that whatever deal he arrives at can be passed by all the other EU members prior to a 2017 referendum. Given that this is obvious to everyone, the only conclusion that can be drawn is that Cameron has no intention of getting a meaningful and enforceable deal by the time of the referendum.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Interesting Ashcroft numbers in Labour's number one target in North Warwickshire:

    Lab 43
    Con 35
    UKIP 15
    LD 3

    Only a 4% swing to Labour compared to 2010.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @OblitusSumMe

    It is the magic money tree of capitalism, you plant your money and watch it grow without any effort.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,764
    Charles said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    UKIP want to leave the EU. That will not happen whilst Cameron is in charge of any referendum. You can moan about this all you like but in the end Cameron is the problem not the solution.

    So Farage is lying when he says he wants a referendum in the next parliament, and will do a deal with anyone to get it?
    I have no idea if he is lying or not. Since he won't be PM it hardly matters. What matters is whether the PM is lying or not and we already know the answer to that one.
    No: he's not necessarily lying.

    Your reasoning (as far as I can work out)

    1. Under no circumstances can a renegotiation achieve any substantial concessions
    2. Cameron knows this
    3. Cameron has chosen to lie about it

    Perhaps an alternative construct would be:

    1. Cameron believes that he may (or may not) be able to achieve substantial concessions
    2. He has therefore said that he will try to renegotiate and put the result before the UK public

    (2) seems more logical than (1)
    We know that he's lying, because he's been pretending to think there's going to be a treaty negotiated in less than two years, which he can't possibly believe. He's also pretending to think his EU renegotiation is going to make changes relevant to the European Court of Human Rights, which is a totally different organization with more members and he can't possibly believe either.

    What we don't know is what else he's lying about. I doubt that he knows either. His main priority has to be to wing it through the next election.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    edmundintokyo said:

    anotherDave said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Anorak said:

    Alternatively a strong "out" splits the Tory vote in perpetuity, leading to the People's Repulic of Miliband for the next 12 years.

    I think that is a very likely scenario if there is a Miliband government and no referendum, leaving us unable to get rid of a disastrous and extremely unpopular government. It took the left well over a decade to get real after Labour chose Michael Foot as leader.
    The LibDems could bounce back very fast in that scenario, while the Labour base gets hollowed out by UKIP at the other end. Four parties, 23% each, all kinds of amazing FPTP madness?
    Surely it's just as likely that the Greens would benefit from an unpopular Labour government?

    In theory, but the lay of the land should be pretty good for them now as well but their results seem a bit meh - not sure what the problem is.
    Possibly it is because the majority of the UK population don't see a return to, at best, the living standards of the 1940s as a desirable thing. As long as the Greens promote such ideas the are always going to be a very minority party.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,583
    Ishmael_X said:




    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Sean_F said:

    Few UKIP supporters want to see Milliband in power. It's a mistake to think that the only legitimate choices which people are entitled to make at the next election are to vote Conservative or to vote Labour.

    Saying that UKIP voters want Milliband in power is like saying that Green or Lib Dem voters want Cameron in power because they refuse to vote Labour.

    The fact is that most UKIP, Green, and Lib Dem voters would like neither of the two in power.

    UKIP's situation is not comparable to that of the Greens or LibDems, because UKIP are working directly to prevent what they claim to want. Having laid into Camerion for not calling a referendum, they are now laying into him for pledging to call a referendum, and trying to sabotage it, whilst at the same time Farage says he'll do a 'deal with the devil' to get a referendum in the next parliament.

    It is the most incoherent political party I have ever come across.
    UKIP want to leave the EU. That will not happen whilst Cameron is in charge of any referendum. You can moan about this all you like but in the end Cameron is the problem not the solution.
    Cameron won't be "in charge of the referendum", the Electoral Commission will be. UKIP are bottling out of a fair fight they know they cannot win.

    Cameron will come back claiming he has meaningful and enforceable change to the EU. He will be supported in this by the Opposition. All the polls show that under those circumstances the vote would be to remain in.

    Given that that position will be a lie (it cannot be anything else in the time frame given), the referendum will clearly not be winnable.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    TheWatcher said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    UKIP want to leave the EU. That will not happen whilst Cameron is in charge of any referendum. You can moan about this all you like but in the end Cameron is the problem not the solution.

    So Farage is lying when he says he wants a referendum in the next parliament, and will do a deal with anyone to get it?
    I have no idea if he is lying or not. Since he won't be PM it hardly matters. What matters is whether the PM is lying or not and we already know the answer to that one.
    In which case you'll never get a referendum.

    Miliband ain't gonna offer you one.

    Why bother then?
    TheWatcher said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    UKIP want to leave the EU. That will not happen whilst Cameron is in charge of any referendum. You can moan about this all you like but in the end Cameron is the problem not the solution.

    So Farage is lying when he says he wants a referendum in the next parliament, and will do a deal with anyone to get it?
    I have no idea if he is lying or not. Since he won't be PM it hardly matters. What matters is whether the PM is lying or not and we already know the answer to that one.
    In which case you'll never get a referendum.

    Miliband ain't gonna offer you one.

    Why bother then?
    We will get one eventually and the important point will be that when we get one is that we have one of the main parties in Parliament officially supporting out. That gives us a far better chance of leaving (which is after all the aim) than a rigged referendum held by a Europhile PM like Cameron with the support of a Europhile opposition.
    It won't be rigged. The voters aren't as stupid as you think they are and are probably naturally inclined to detect something fishy in any measure supported by both main parties. And we and our children will all be long dead before the government or the main opposition is officially and unanimously pro-out.

  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,583
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:


    Of course he will. He has already committed to meaningless negotiations and tried to pretend they can achieve something substantial. It is only party fanatics like yourself who don't see this.

    You've got cause and effect the wrong way round.

    I am not at all a party fanatic, that is a ridiculous statement. I am a realist, who wants good government. The choice on offer is a Labour-led government under Miliband - who I am pretty sure will be the worst PM for decades, worse even than Brown - or a Conservative-led government under Cameron, who has run the best government we have had, apart from Maggie's, in the half-century I've been following politics. Of course there are flaws and cock-ups, there always are. But there are fewer now than in almost all other governments we have had.

    That is all; I support the Conservatives because they are a serious political party doing a good job. I wasn't a member in the Hague, IDS and Howard years because I didn't think they were serious about wanting to win elections and govern in the interests of the country.
    You lost all credibility at the point you denied being a party fanatic. As far as Cameron's Tory party is concerned you are about as committed a fanatic as it is possible to be.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Ishmael_X said:




    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Sean_F said:

    Few UKIP supporters want to see Milliband in power. It's a mistake to think that the only legitimate choices which people are entitled to make at the next election are to vote Conservative or to vote Labour.

    Saying that UKIP voters want Milliband in power is like saying that Green or Lib Dem voters want Cameron in power because they refuse to vote Labour.

    The fact is that most UKIP, Green, and Lib Dem voters would like neither of the two in power.

    UKIP's situation is not comparable to that of the Greens or LibDems, because UKIP are working directly to prevent what they claim to want. Having laid into Camerion for not calling a referendum, they are now laying into him for pledging to call a referendum, and trying to sabotage it, whilst at the same time Farage says he'll do a 'deal with the devil' to get a referendum in the next parliament.

    It is the most incoherent political party I have ever come across.
    UKIP want to leave the EU. That will not happen whilst Cameron is in charge of any referendum. You can moan about this all you like but in the end Cameron is the problem not the solution.
    Cameron won't be "in charge of the referendum", the Electoral Commission will be. UKIP are bottling out of a fair fight they know they cannot win.

    Cameron will come back claiming he has meaningful and enforceable change to the EU. He will be supported in this by the Opposition. All the polls show that under those circumstances the vote would be to remain in.

    Given that that position will be a lie (it cannot be anything else in the time frame given), the referendum will clearly not be winnable.
    So expose the lie. Argue your case. Condescend into the democratic arena. Do some politics.

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Richard_Tyndall said:


    Cameron will come back claiming he has meaningful and enforceable change to the EU. He will be supported in this by the Opposition. All the polls show that under those circumstances the vote would be to remain in.

    Given that that position will be a lie (it cannot be anything else in the time frame given), the referendum will clearly not be winnable.

    Don't worry, Richard, it will be more even than that. UKIP will be lying on the other side, for example they'll be claiming we can do a trade deal with the EU which involves zero concessions, which doesn't include some element of the free movement of workers, and which will have no effect at all on inward investment.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @edmundintokyo
    "His main priority has to be to wing it through the next election.
    IDS is "winging it as well. Possibly more so.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    Ishmael_X said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    TheWatcher said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    UKIP want to leave the EU. That will not happen whilst Cameron is in charge of any referendum. You can moan about this all you like but in the end Cameron is the problem not the solution.

    So Farage is lying when he says he wants a referendum in the next parliament, and will do a deal with anyone to get it?
    I have no idea if he is lying or not. Since he won't be PM it hardly matters. What matters is whether the PM is lying or not and we already know the answer to that one.
    In which case you'll never get a referendum.

    Miliband ain't gonna offer you one.

    Why bother then?
    TheWatcher said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    UKIP want to leave the EU. That will not happen whilst Cameron is in charge of any referendum. You can moan about this all you like but in the end Cameron is the problem not the solution.

    So Farage is lying when he says he wants a referendum in the next parliament, and will do a deal with anyone to get it?
    I have no idea if he is lying or not. Since he won't be PM it hardly matters. What matters is whether the PM is lying or not and we already know the answer to that one.
    In which case you'll never get a referendum.

    Miliband ain't gonna offer you one.

    Why bother then?
    We will get one eventually and the important point will be that when we get one is that we have one of the main parties in Parliament officially supporting out. That gives us a far better chance of leaving (which is after all the aim) than a rigged referendum held by a Europhile PM like Cameron with the support of a Europhile opposition.
    It won't be rigged. The voters aren't as stupid as you think they are and are probably naturally inclined to detect something fishy in any measure supported by both main parties. And we and our children will all be long dead before the government or the main opposition is officially and unanimously pro-out.

    Imagine the frothing and eye swivelling if the vote is 'No' to leaving, as is likely.

    It'll be wall to wall 'rigged votes' and a call to arms from the foot soldier Kippers (and a sigh of relief from their Gravy Trainer MEP's).
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,764
    Ishmael_X said:

    The voters aren't as stupid as you think they are and are probably naturally inclined to detect something fishy in any measure supported by both main parties.

    Dunno, people spend a lot of time focusing on floating voters but big chunks of the electorate are basically tribal. If there's a complicated argument going on that's hard to pick through then the party loyalists are liable to believe the people on their own side who they distrust the least.

    If the tribal voters mostly line up with their tribes then you need to do exceptionally well with the non-tribal ones to get a majority.

    That said, it's not really clear how Con would play this. If the party splits 50/50, it's not obvious that their supporters will side with the leadership.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,583
    Ishmael_X said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    TheWatcher said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    UKIP want to leave the EU. That will not happen whilst Cameron is in charge of any referendum. You can moan about this all you like but in the end Cameron is the problem not the solution.

    So Farage is lying when he says he wants a referendum in the next parliament, and will do a deal with anyone to get it?
    I have no idea if he is lying or not. Since he won't be PM it hardly matters. What matters is whether the PM is lying or not and we already know the answer to that one.
    In which case you'll never get a referendum.

    Miliband ain't gonna offer you one.

    Why bother then?
    TheWatcher said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    UKIP want to leave the EU. That will not happen whilst Cameron is in charge of any referendum. You can moan about this all you like but in the end Cameron is the problem not the solution.

    So Farage is lying when he says he wants a referendum in the next parliament, and will do a deal with anyone to get it?
    I have no idea if he is lying or not. Since he won't be PM it hardly matters. What matters is whether the PM is lying or not and we already know the answer to that one.
    In which case you'll never get a referendum.

    Miliband ain't gonna offer you one.

    Why bother then?
    We will get one eventually and the important point will be that when we get one is that we have one of the main parties in Parliament officially supporting out. That gives us a far better chance of leaving (which is after all the aim) than a rigged referendum held by a Europhile PM like Cameron with the support of a Europhile opposition.
    It won't be rigged. The voters aren't as stupid as you think they are and are probably naturally inclined to detect something fishy in any measure supported by both main parties. And we and our children will all be long dead before the government or the main opposition is officially and unanimously pro-out.

    Really? They believed the lies they were told at the last EU referendum. Now I would like to think it is a case of not being fooled twice but I am not sure my faith stretches that far.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited June 2014
    OblitusSumMe said:

    AveryLP said:

    In general though, if you accept that a house purchaser should be rewarded by a 2-3% annual real terms return in capital value on their investment, the housing market is not a major concern at present.

    But how can a house generate a 2-3% annual real terms return on capital value just for existing?

    All you've done is shown that the long-term trend is unsustainable, but that we might be "due" another period of insanity.
    I would agree that we need to question the assumption that 2-3% is the right level of real return, but it is not an unreasonable goal when compared to investments in alternative assets (e.g FTSE 100 stocks grew by 14% in nominal value last year).

    We need to better understand the true costs of residential property ownership. The ONS (and ESA) are doing a lot of work at present to include 'owner occupancy' costs/returns in the National Accounts, i.e. to quantify the cost benefit to the property owner of not having to rent.

    Affordability is more dependent on the capacity of the economy in general and households particularly to generate sufficient real wealth to absorb the asset value increases of above inflation price increases.

  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,764
    Ishmael_X said:


    So expose the lie.

    That's not how referendum campaigns work. You don't expose the other side's lie, you tell a better one.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    You lost all credibility at the point you denied being a party fanatic. As far as Cameron's Tory party is concerned you are about as committed a fanatic as it is possible to be.

    Not at all. I happen to agree with Cameron on many points. I am allowed to form my own independent opinion, am I not? And if it so happens that that opinion is moderate and sensible, like Cameron's position, then so be it.

    I know you find this hard to comprehend, but some of us are realists who recognise that the world is not all black and white, and that there are difficult trade-offs.


  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @OblitusSumMe

    Or to put it in simpler terms, "We have changed or mind again on property booms"
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    House of Commons library paper on 2014 local election results.

    "The estimated share of the vote each party wold have received had the elections been held across the whole of Great Britain is 31% for Labour, 30% for the Conservatives, 18% for UKIP and 11% for the Liberal Democrats."

    http://www.parliament.uk/briefing-papers/RP14-33/local-elections-2014

    EU Parliament elections.

    http://www.parliament.uk/briefing-papers/RP14-32/european-parliament-elections-2014
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,583
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    You lost all credibility at the point you denied being a party fanatic. As far as Cameron's Tory party is concerned you are about as committed a fanatic as it is possible to be.

    Not at all. I happen to agree with Cameron on many points. I am allowed to form my own independent opinion, am I not? And if it so happens that that opinion is moderate and sensible, like Cameron's position, then so be it.

    I know you find this hard to comprehend, but some of us are realists who recognise that the world is not all black and white, and that there are difficult trade-offs.


    And yet you persist in trying to perpetuate the myth that Cameron can get something meaningful and enforceable from his renegotiation even though it is clear that is impossible.

    What does that say about your 'realism' or perhaps your honesty?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "For over 50 million Brits, London is boring

    Who decided absolutely everything on earth should be measured against, mediated through and only ever mentioned in relation to our capital city? Chris Moss is tired of London
    ...................................
    A few years ago, I visited the Falklands and expected to meet a bunch of village idiots. But the Falklanders turned out to be well-travelled, surprisingly cultured and quite knowledgeable about Latin American affairs. They have time to read, cook, exercise, have sex. They walk not to get to places, but to enjoy walking. This is true for all those who live in the greener, emptier lands or in the smaller towns and cities.

    Far from being a bastion of tolerance and internationalism, I think the modern British capital has become a giant sprawl of small-mindedness, a centre for the self-centred, a shopping mall busy with bag-carrying bores. I can see very well why the Scots prefer Edinburgh – and why they may cast a vote against being bored for another three centuries."

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/men/thinking-man/10903618/For-over-50-million-Brits-London-is-boring.html
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    ICM Lab 32 Con 31 UKIP 16 LD 10

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jun/17/ed-miliband-nick-clegg-fall-lowest-popularity-guardian-icm?CMP=twt_gu
  • Steve_TierneySteve_Tierney Posts: 6
    I can't get my head around these Lib Dem voters who would vote to leave, or these UKIP voters who would vote to stay. Do they not understand the parties they are in?
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Steve_Tierney
    Some in the SNP will vote against independence?

    Welcome to the hell that is Political Betting
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited June 2014
    Tissue_Price said:

    ICM Lab 32 Con 31 UKIP 16 LD 10

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jun/17/ed-miliband-nick-clegg-fall-lowest-popularity-guardian-icm?CMP=twt_gu

    Interesting to see a near match with Parliament's NEV based on the May locals as posted by anotherDave.

    Just a bit more UKIP attrition from ICM which is to be expected.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,096
    http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/health/fried-food-ban-could-kill-scottish-children-2014061787691
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:


    Cameron will come back claiming he has meaningful and enforceable change to the EU. He will be supported in this by the Opposition. All the polls show that under those circumstances the vote would be to remain in.

    Given that that position will be a lie (it cannot be anything else in the time frame given), the referendum will clearly not be winnable.

    Don't worry, Richard, it will be more even than that. UKIP will be lying on the other side, for example they'll be claiming we can do a trade deal with the EU which involves zero concessions, which doesn't include some element of the free movement of workers, and which will have no effect at all on inward investment.
    Hyperbole there, Mr N, pure Hyperbole. Leave aside the politics, what is this inward investment we should all be clamouring for? Are we talking about the likes of Honda creating new factories and new jobs or does that term also include foreign companies taking over our own business, stripping out all IP and value and shutting down production? Might I suggest that there different types of inward investment and a blanket use of the term is misleading?

    As for free movement of workers; well, I am old enough to remember life before the EU. Do you know companies that wanted to move people to the UK could do so? Furthermore, Brits who wanted to work abroad could do so too (which is why there is a branch of the Llama clan in Portugal).

    These scare tactics of yours might work with the young and gullible but in reality they are so much nonsense.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Charles said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    UKIP want to leave the EU. That will not happen whilst Cameron is in charge of any referendum. You can moan about this all you like but in the end Cameron is the problem not the solution.

    So Farage is lying when he says he wants a referendum in the next parliament, and will do a deal with anyone to get it?
    I have no idea if he is lying or not. Since he won't be PM it hardly matters. What matters is whether the PM is lying or not and we already know the answer to that one.
    No: he's not necessarily lying.

    Your reasoning (as far as I can work out)

    1. Under no circumstances can a renegotiation achieve any substantial concessions
    2. Cameron knows this
    3. Cameron has chosen to lie about it

    Perhaps an alternative construct would be:

    1. Cameron believes that he may (or may not) be able to achieve substantial concessions
    2. He has therefore said that he will try to renegotiate and put the result before the UK public

    (2) seems more logical than (1)
    Not at all. If that were the case he would have allowed himself time for a meaningful and enforceable deal.He has not. There is no way that whatever deal he arrives at can be passed by all the other EU members prior to a 2017 referendum. Given that this is obvious to everyone, the only conclusion that can be drawn is that Cameron has no intention of getting a meaningful and enforceable deal by the time of the referendum.
    He can get a deal done, but (assuming it is a Treaty - which I'm not sure it needs to be) then it would always be subject to ratification.

    The referendum would be between Out and Stay In on Amended Terms (SIAT).

    Assuming - after the referendum - SIAT is no longer an option (and I would exclude from this the kind of minor amends and revotes we've seen in the past) then I think the government would need to call a second referendum with a straight In/Out question.

    The problem is that a negotiation cycle in the EU is not really compatible with a 5 year term - and Cameron is unable to start anything formal right now because the LibDems keep blocking him. So he is working the ground, getting read for a post 2015 discussion.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    edited June 2014
    Guardian ICM Poll Lab 32 Con 31 UKIP 16 Lib Dem 10. Declining popularity for Clegg and Miliband
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,527
    Richard N, UKIP supporters want so much more than simply a referendum. And, in advance of such a referendum, it makes as much sense for UKIP supporters to vote UKIP as it does for SNP supporters to vote SNP. One cannot win a referendum without maximising support and electoral representation.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    SeanT's latest blog post, with 268 comments so far:

    "We can't defeat Islamists. Instead, we must quarantine them until the fires of jihadism burn out":

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/seanthomas/100276612/we-cant-defeat-islamists-instead-we-must-quarantine-them-until-the-fires-of-jihadism-burn-out/
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,133
    old_labour said:

    Guardian ICM Poll Lab 32 Con 31 UKIP 16 Lib Dem 10. Declining popularity for Clegg and Miliband

    George Eaton ‏@georgeeaton 11 mins
    Labour and Tories on combined level of just 63% in new Guardian/ICM poll - lowest ever recorded. http://bit.ly/1lxfGBZ
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    All Cameron needs to do to get Merkel to offer substantial concessions on the EU is to allow Germany to beat England in the latter stages of the World Cup.

    Can anyone see any flaw in this argument?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Tissue_Price said:

    ICM Lab 32 Con 31 UKIP 16 LD 10

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jun/17/ed-miliband-nick-clegg-fall-lowest-popularity-guardian-icm?CMP=twt_gu

    Dreadful for Labour, and not much better for the Tories.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Ishmael_X said:




    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Sean_F said:

    Few UKIP supporters want to see Milliband in power. It's a mistake to think that the only legitimate choices which people are entitled to make at the next election are to vote Conservative or to vote Labour.

    Saying that UKIP voters want Milliband in power is like saying that Green or Lib Dem voters want Cameron in power because they refuse to vote Labour.

    The fact is that most UKIP, Green, and Lib Dem voters would like neither of the two in power.

    UKIP's situation is not comparable to that of the Greens or LibDems, because UKIP are working directly to prevent what they claim to want. Having laid into Camerion for not calling a referendum, they are now laying into him for pledging to call a referendum, and trying to sabotage it, whilst at the same time Farage says he'll do a 'deal with the devil' to get a referendum in the next parliament.

    It is the most incoherent political party I have ever come across.
    UKIP want to leave the EU. That will not happen whilst Cameron is in charge of any referendum. You can moan about this all you like but in the end Cameron is the problem not the solution.
    Cameron won't be "in charge of the referendum", the Electoral Commission will be. UKIP are bottling out of a fair fight they know they cannot win.

    Cameron will come back claiming he has meaningful and enforceable change to the EU. He will be supported in this by the Opposition. All the polls show that under those circumstances the vote would be to remain in.

    Given that that position will be a lie (it cannot be anything else in the time frame given), the referendum will clearly not be winnable.
    Your protection, here, is the BOO/Eurosceptic wing of the Tory party. Cameron will not split the party in a meaningful way - if he can't persuade at least two-thirds to back him he won't campaign to stay In.

    The best way that UKIP could maximise their chances of winning the referendum would be to voluntarily (no deals) not run against suitable Eurosceptic Tory MPs (and other parties) and aim their fire at the Europhiles
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Popularity of Miliband and Clegg falls to lowest levels recorded by ICM poll
    Labour leader's satisfaction rating slips from -25 to -39 and deputy prime minister's falls 16 points to -37 from May to June":

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jun/17/ed-miliband-nick-clegg-fall-lowest-popularity-guardian-icm
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Sean_F said:

    Richard N, UKIP supporters want so much more than simply a referendum. And, in advance of such a referendum, it makes as much sense for UKIP supporters to vote UKIP as it does for SNP supporters to vote SNP. One cannot win a referendum without maximising support and electoral representation.

    Apart from a traditional livery for trains, no Romanians, uniforms for taxi drivers, and, of course, no Romanians, can you list these additional wants?

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    ICM From GE 2010

    Con -5%
    LD - 13%
    Lab + 3
    Ukip +13%

    So other others up 2%

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,527
    AveryLP said:

    Sean_F said:

    Richard N, UKIP supporters want so much more than simply a referendum. And, in advance of such a referendum, it makes as much sense for UKIP supporters to vote UKIP as it does for SNP supporters to vote SNP. One cannot win a referendum without maximising support and electoral representation.

    Apart from a traditional livery for trains, no Romanians, uniforms for taxi drivers, and, of course, no Romanians, can you list these additional wants?

    Control of immigration, adequate armed forces, protection of personal freedoms, moderate levels of taxation, the kinds of things the Conservatives once stood for.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:


    Of course he will. He has already committed to meaningless negotiations and tried to pretend they can achieve something substantial. It is only party fanatics like yourself who don't see this.

    You've got cause and effect the wrong way round.

    I am not at all a party fanatic, that is a ridiculous statement. I am a realist, who wants good government. The choice on offer is a Labour-led government under Miliband - who I am pretty sure will be the worst PM for decades, worse even than Brown - or a Conservative-led government under Cameron, who has run the best government we have had, apart from Maggie's, in the half-century I've been following politics. Of course there are flaws and cock-ups, there always are. But there are fewer now than in almost all other governments we have had.

    That is all; I support the Conservatives because they are a serious political party doing a good job. I wasn't a member in the Hague, IDS and Howard years because I didn't think they were serious about wanting to win elections and govern in the interests of the country.
    You lost all credibility at the point you denied being a party fanatic. As far as Cameron's Tory party is concerned you are about as committed a fanatic as it is possible to be.
    Richard - do you think Cameron has "fixed" this Scottish Indy referendum ?

    If so show examples..


  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited June 2014
    AndyJS said:

    SeanT's latest blog post, with 268 comments so far:

    "We can't defeat Islamists. Instead, we must quarantine them until the fires of jihadism burn out":

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/seanthomas/100276612/we-cant-defeat-islamists-instead-we-must-quarantine-them-until-the-fires-of-jihadism-burn-out/

    From the comments. Is this a real or spoof kipper?

    In the end.....they will convert to Christianity. Let's hope, we convert to Christianity before they do.....because in the interim, while they are still in their crazy mad mullah phase, they are going to wreak havoc in the West. The London and Madrid outrages will pale into insignificance .....I do hope I'm wrong.

    We should never have let a single Muslim come to live here, if they really wanted to set up shop here.....they should have left their blood thirsty ideology at Dover by renouncing their faith in public......if they couldn't or wouldn't do that.....then, off you pop....back to waziristan

    I'm going with real. Mad, but real. BTW, the ellipses are in the original.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,096
    Well that was the most confusing horse race I've watched in a while. Was looking out Capello Sansevero's colours and the jockey was in red, not white and blue.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,387
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Really? They believed the lies they were told at the last EU referendum. Now I would like to think it is a case of not being fooled twice but I am not sure my faith stretches that far.

    The principle issue that has catalysed opposition to the EU in recent times has been the flood of immigration from poorer EU members, such as Poland, Romania, etc

    Freedom to work across the EU was enshrined in the original Treaty of Rome in the 1950s. In the 1970s it was characterized as a positive for the UK: British builders could go and work in the booming German construction industry! (Hence, eventually, Auf Wiedersehen, Pet).

    It would be a great irony that the UK, which did the most to get the ex-Communist countries of Eastern Europe into the EU, left because of them.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Anorak

    Real or spoof, we have all met someone who does thinks that way.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,727
    @LordAshcroft: My LD-Con marginals poll will be published on Thursday at 11am. Meanwhile, a refresher on Mr Clegg's predicament: http://t.co/e6YePgoVsm
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2014
    ICM with UKPR calculator:

    Lab 321
    Con 269
    LD 30
    Others 30

    Lab short by 5 seats.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,387
    edited June 2014
    Sean_F said:

    AveryLP said:

    Sean_F said:

    Richard N, UKIP supporters want so much more than simply a referendum. And, in advance of such a referendum, it makes as much sense for UKIP supporters to vote UKIP as it does for SNP supporters to vote SNP. One cannot win a referendum without maximising support and electoral representation.

    Apart from a traditional livery for trains, no Romanians, uniforms for taxi drivers, and, of course, no Romanians, can you list these additional wants?

    Control of immigration, adequate armed forces, protection of personal freedoms, moderate levels of taxation, the kinds of things the Conservatives once stood for.

    Re closed borders: that's a very recent Conservative trend. Before 1914, the Conservative Party took the opposite view. (And it was the Liberals under Lloyd George who started the closing of the door.)
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