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SystemSystem Posts: 12,685
edited June 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The guy who this week wagered £400k at 1 to 4 on an IndyRef NO might feel a tad nervous following new poll

Three days after it was reported that a man in SW London backed an IndyRef NO with £400,000 at 1/4 there’s a new poll which has the gap at just 4% It was commissioned by Yes Scotland.

Read the full story here


Comments

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    First to score.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,949
    Looks like the Union is on a knife edge.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Yes!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Scotland out!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,338
    Why is Phil Neville trending. Must be a first for everything.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    #getridofspongingscotscheerio
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,792
    and this ICM poll as well

    sunday herald ‏@newsundayherald 2 mins

    Our splash tomorrow: breakthrough poll has Yes at record high in #indyref and margin closing fast: Yes, 48%, No 52%
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    How long until someone dubs this the World Cup effect?
  • YossariansChildYossariansChild Posts: 536
    FPT Hodgson breaking England World Cup tradition of going 1 - 0 up then sitting deeper and deeper and hoofing the ball aimlessly before eventually losing by giving the opponents the ball, letting the score, immediate equaliser and game on! Quality!
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,810
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    and this ICM poll as well

    sunday herald ‏@newsundayherald 2 mins

    Our splash tomorrow: breakthrough poll has Yes at record high in #indyref and margin closing fast: Yes, 48%, No 52%

    I think that's referring to the Panelbase.

    What is the ICM?
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,569
    edited June 2014
    Keep Calm and Carry on, Scotland isn't going anywhere, not even to the World Cup.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,198
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    and this ICM poll as well

    sunday herald ‏@newsundayherald 2 mins

    Our splash tomorrow: breakthrough poll has Yes at record high in #indyref and margin closing fast: Yes, 48%, No 52%

    That's the Panelbase. The Scotsman are being uncharacteristically coy about their ICM, apart from a bitchy tweet.

    Kenny Farquharson ‏@KennyFarq 32 mins
    There is, of course, only one independently-commissioned poll in Sunday's papers: ICM Research for SoS. Other poll is commissioned by SNP.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,792
    MikeL said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    and this ICM poll as well

    sunday herald ‏@newsundayherald 2 mins

    Our splash tomorrow: breakthrough poll has Yes at record high in #indyref and margin closing fast: Yes, 48%, No 52%

    I think that's referring to the Panelbase.

    What is the ICM?
    Oh right, I thought that was the ICM poll.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I'm guessing BBC iPlayer is being put under its biggest strain ever tonight.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,792
    This is the CORRECT ICM POLL

    The survey of 1,003 people across Scotland also revealed that the gap between Yes and No has tightened, with support for independence now standing at 36 per cent, up two percentage points on an equivalent poll last month.

    The No vote fell three percentage points to 43 per cent when compared with May’s ICM poll. The proportion of undecided voters went up one point to 21 per cent.

    When undecided voters were excluded from the calculation, backing for Alex Salmond’s drive for independence stood at 45 per cent, an increase of three percentage points on last month.

    Support for a No vote was down three points to 55 per cent.

    This is the same split between Yes and No as ICM recorded in a poll for Scotland on Sunday back in March.

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scots-fear-division-after-independence-vote-1-3444507
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited June 2014
    bugger
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,193
    Feck
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,569
    Sod it!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,936
    Noooo - again!!!
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    To be fair my mate Dan hodges has been tweeting for weeks about the weaklink in our defence, the fullback Johnson... oh Dan so close.

  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,569
    I have been making this point for months now on PB. And its worth pointing out that the SNP may not see any electoral bounce at the next GE or in the Holyrood elections a year later when the Independence Referendum is done and dusted. Especially if they get the blame for causing such a division with this Independence referendum.

    Scotland on Sunday - Scots fear division after independence vote

    "ALMOST two fifths of people in Scotland believe the country will be left “badly divided” after the independence referendum, according to the first poll to measure the effect the constitutional debate is having on Scottish society.

    In the ICM poll, conducted for Scotland on Sunday, 38 per cent of those surveyed thought that divisions would remain whatever the outcome of the September 18 poll, compared with 36 per cent who disagreed when asked if Scotland would be left “badly divided”.

    The poll also looked at how the constitutional issue was affecting people’s relationships with their families and friends.

    It found that 42 per cent of families are split over independence, while one fifth of those questioned (21 per cent) admitted that discussions with family and friends about the forthcoming referendum had degenerated into rows."

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This is the CORRECT ICM POLL

    The survey of 1,003 people across Scotland also revealed that the gap between Yes and No has tightened, with support for independence now standing at 36 per cent, up two percentage points on an equivalent poll last month.

    The No vote fell three percentage points to 43 per cent when compared with May’s ICM poll. The proportion of undecided voters went up one point to 21 per cent.

    When undecided voters were excluded from the calculation, backing for Alex Salmond’s drive for independence stood at 45 per cent, an increase of three percentage points on last month.

    Support for a No vote was down three points to 55 per cent.

    This is the same split between Yes and No as ICM recorded in a poll for Scotland on Sunday back in March.

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scots-fear-division-after-independence-vote-1-3444507

  • YossariansChildYossariansChild Posts: 536
    Stevie G has a lot to learn from Messrs Lineker and Owen about winning penalties..
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Most players from other countries would have been appealing for that.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,392
    It is going to be very hard chasing this match. I fear the counterattack.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,949
    edited June 2014
    I remember hearing somebody from one of those Astrology based papers on the radio before Christmas (Old Moores Almanac maybe?) saying that with the referendum being held in September there was a good chance Scotland would leave the Union.

    Perhaps it's written in the star's, LOL.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,392
    Rooney really should have scored there.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,193
    Blair's essay

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iraq/10900355/Tony-Blair-the-whole-Middle-East-is-under-threat-but-it-is-not-our-fault.html
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Should things look remotely this close come election day, then stand by for a record turnout.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,792
    Ciro Immobile's parent's should have given him the Christian name "La Donna"
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,569
    I agree, its going to be a very high turnout, and the lassies are going make sure its a clear No.
    peter_from_putney said:

    Should things look remotely this close come election day, then stand by for a record turnout.

  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Another 3-1 looking likely
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,392
    Not sure these substitutions are helping England. They seem to have lost some of their earlier drive.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,569
    I am just hoping that England have kept something in reserve for this last 10 mins.
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Another 3-1 looking likely

  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,193
    Well one thing is sure, we won't be taking home the cup on this evidence.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    fitalass said:

    I am just hoping that England have kept something in reserve for this last 10 mins.

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Another 3-1 looking likely

    We are out on our feet... I never understand why our fitness seems so poor always
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,792
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    fitalass said:

    I am just hoping that England have kept something in reserve for this last 10 mins.

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Another 3-1 looking likely

    We are out on our feet... I never understand why our fitness seems so poor always
    No winter break
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    To be fair - we have not been bad.

    but it really is hell supporting England
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,193
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    fitalass said:

    I am just hoping that England have kept something in reserve for this last 10 mins.

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Another 3-1 looking likely

    We are out on our feet... I never understand why our fitness seems so poor always
    No winter break
    Is that really a huge issue?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Playing too high tempo early on. Running on empty.
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    fitalass said:

    I am just hoping that England have kept something in reserve for this last 10 mins.

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Another 3-1 looking likely

    We are out on our feet... I never understand why our fitness seems so poor always
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,792
    ToryJim said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    fitalass said:

    I am just hoping that England have kept something in reserve for this last 10 mins.

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Another 3-1 looking likely

    We are out on our feet... I never understand why our fitness seems so poor always
    No winter break
    Is that really a huge issue?
    Yes
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,569
    Twitter
    Joseph Barton ‏@Joey7Barton 4m
    The reason they are all getting cramp not because of fitness, its because Italy have dominated possession for long periods.
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    fitalass said:

    I am just hoping that England have kept something in reserve for this last 10 mins.

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Another 3-1 looking likely

    We are out on our feet... I never understand why our fitness seems so poor always
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    thank god Uruguay lost
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,392
    I don't like saying this as a Man U fan but I would leave Rooney out for the next game.
  • Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    Super Mario says, thanks for playing my game.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Players lose a lot of salt in that heat. Psrticularly if playing high tempo.
    fitalass said:

    Twitter
    Joseph Barton ‏@Joey7Barton 4m
    The reason they are all getting cramp not because of fitness, its because Italy have dominated possession for long periods.

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    fitalass said:

    I am just hoping that England have kept something in reserve for this last 10 mins.

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Another 3-1 looking likely

    We are out on our feet... I never understand why our fitness seems so poor always
  • dodradedodrade Posts: 597
    England unlucky not to get a point, they've played a lot worse than that in the past and won.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,569
    Agreed.
    dodrade said:

    England unlucky not to get a point, they've played a lot worse than that in the past and won.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,792
    Sadly, another profitable match for me.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    dodrade said:

    England unlucky not to get a point, they've played a lot worse than that in the past and won.

    Agreed
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,193
    DavidL said:

    I don't like saying this as a Man U fan but I would leave Rooney out for the next game.

    Absolutely, I don't see why he's so rated on the basis of what I saw there.

  • YossariansChildYossariansChild Posts: 536
    OK am officially f@cked off with England having a team in Football/Rugby/Cricket/Handball to build for the future. Can we just f@cking f@cking win something!!!!! Just once in my life!!!!
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    dodrade said:

    England unlucky not to get a point, they've played a lot worse than that in the past and won.

    Don't agree at all, Italy were far superior.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,936
    Oh well, a good performance but those early chances should have gone in.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,392
    Sterling outstanding in the first half. When England put him on the wing they lost much of their threat.

    Thought Welbeck did well and probably did not deserve to go off.

    Sturridge did well in the first half. I hope he has not picked up an injury.

    I hope I am not alone in finding Johnson an incredibly frustrating performer. Surely England have a better attacking full back than that.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,115
    How can England produce so many centre forwards and yet our right hand side is total garbage ?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,792
    Just backed Japan to defeat Côte d'Ivoire

    Will post the rest of my tips for Sunday's matches tomorrow lunchtime.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Must at least win one and draw one, otherwise it's bus fare home time.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,569
    Twitter
    James Pearce ‏@Pearcesport 2m
    Spain lost their first match at #wc2010. That's all I'm saying....
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2014
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Just backed Japan to defeat Côte d'Ivoire

    Will post the rest of my tips for Sunday's matches tomorrow lunchtime.

    Thanks TSE.

    Interesting how you can usually make a profit with this outsider / cash out strategy.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,716
    fitalass said:

    Twitter
    James Pearce ‏@Pearcesport 2m
    Spain lost their first match at #wc2010. That's all I'm saying....

    Did they lose it 5-1?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,115
    AndyJS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Just backed Japan to defeat Côte d'Ivoire

    Will post the rest of my tips for Sunday's matches tomorrow lunchtime.

    Thanks TSE.

    Interesting how you can usually make a profit with this outsider / cash out strategy.
    Japan are favourites.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,569
    Absolutely Foxy, my worry is that this World Cup will be over for England before they find their feet in this heat. Often wonder if that Scotland team back in Argentina 78' finally got acclimatised to the heat just in time to come up against another European team in the first round, but not soon enough for that amazing win to make a difference. And the Dutch team that Scotland beat went onto to reach the finals, still think that was one of the most disgraceful World Cup finals in my memory.
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Players lose a lot of salt in that heat. Psrticularly if playing high tempo.

    fitalass said:

    Twitter
    Joseph Barton ‏@Joey7Barton 4m
    The reason they are all getting cramp not because of fitness, its because Italy have dominated possession for long periods.

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    fitalass said:

    I am just hoping that England have kept something in reserve for this last 10 mins.

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Another 3-1 looking likely

    We are out on our feet... I never understand why our fitness seems so poor always
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,115
    peter_from_putney said:

    Must at least win one and draw one, otherwise it's bus fare home time.

    2 wins I reckon. 4 pts might not be enough.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Pulpstar said:

    AndyJS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Just backed Japan to defeat Côte d'Ivoire

    Will post the rest of my tips for Sunday's matches tomorrow lunchtime.

    Thanks TSE.

    Interesting how you can usually make a profit with this outsider / cash out strategy.
    Japan are favourites.
    The odds must have shifted slightly since I last checked.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,198
    ARTIST TAXI DRIVER ‏@chunkymark 9m
    >>@colinmccredie: Pirlo at Half-Time. http://tinyurl.com/o6nro82
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    We have better goal difference to Uruguay, but Costa Rica will not roll over for us.
    Pulpstar said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    Must at least win one and draw one, otherwise it's bus fare home time.

    2 wins I reckon. 4 pts might not be enough.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,115
    Theuniondivvie said:

    ARTIST TAXI DRIVER ‏@chunkymark 9m
    >>@colinmccredie: Pirlo at Half-Time. http://tinyurl.com/o6nro82

    He has a tremendously classy beard.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Forza Italia! Well done Italy! Hopefully England will keep up the good work in their remaining matches and so bring the hype and hysteria to an early end.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,032
    Thought England were quite fun to watch for a change. Surely Uruguay and Costa Rica are beatable?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Rooney was a bit impatient as usual.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,632
    Pirlo is just different class, what a player

    England can stil qualify, we should beat the other two. Played ok tonight IMO nothing to get annoyed about
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,193
    FrankBooth said:

    Thought England were quite fun to watch for a change. Surely Uruguay and Costa Rica are beatable?

    Well if Costa Rica can beat Uruguay, we can.

  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,193
    Have to say I could listen to Thierry Henry all night, not sure if it's the French accent or the obvious way his brain works as he's answering or making a point.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,569
    Got to admit that it has to be José Mourinho for me, I could listen to him all night. Delighted to see him back in English Premier League, its fairly brightened up the coverage for me. :)
    ToryJim said:

    Have to say I could listen to Thierry Henry all night, not sure if it's the French accent or the obvious way his brain works as he's answering or making a point.

  • isamisam Posts: 42,632
    ToryJim said:

    Have to say I could listen to Thierry Henry all night, not sure if it's the French accent or the obvious way his brain works as he's answering or making a point.

    The Premier League's best ever player? Yep, me too

    Cool guy
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,193
    fitalass said:

    Got to admit that it has to be José Mourinho for me, I could listen to him all night. Delighted to see him back in English Premier League, its fairly brightened up the coverage for me. :)

    ToryJim said:

    Have to say I could listen to Thierry Henry all night, not sure if it's the French accent or the obvious way his brain works as he's answering or making a point.

    Ah but I generally go weak for good looking French gents
  • YossariansChildYossariansChild Posts: 536
    The World Cup for an Englishman is like that amazingly fit girl you meet at uni during freshers week. Every year you build up, expectation rises no matter how much you try to trick yourself into thinking you dont care,secretly you think this year, this year, this year i will make it. And then you see her. She teases, she leads you on, and when you finally get any action its over before it really began. Every other f@cker is having a great time and you are left thinking of what might have been.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,115
    AndyJS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    AndyJS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Just backed Japan to defeat Côte d'Ivoire

    Will post the rest of my tips for Sunday's matches tomorrow lunchtime.

    Thanks TSE.

    Interesting how you can usually make a profit with this outsider / cash out strategy.
    Japan are favourites.
    The odds must have shifted slightly since I last checked.
    I've followed you and TSE in on that. This will probably kill his streak.
  • Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    Absolutely Foxy, my worry is that this World Cup will be over for England before they find their feet in this heat. Often wonder if that Scotland team back in Argentina 78' finally got acclimatised to the heat just in time to come up against another European team in the first round, but not soon enough for that amazing win to make a difference. And the Dutch team that Scotland beat went onto to reach the finals, still think that was one of the most disgraceful World Cup finals in my memory.

    It never reached 70f when scotland played in 1978.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Interesting:

    Better Nation founder James Mackenzie said the poll suggested that if the SNP focused on the referendum, instead of trying to win both that vote and the 2016 Scottish elections, a majority of Scots could be persuaded to back independence.

    He stated: "The referendum result can't change anyone's identity, nor can any party guarantee that we'll be better or worse off either way. What a Yes vote would do is transfer the remaining powers from Westminster to Holyrood, and this poll suggests a clear vote for independence on that basis is within reach.

    http://news.stv.tv/politics/279152-holyrood-three-times-as-trusted-as-westminster-poll-reveals/
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,193
    I've read Tony Blair's Mideast essay through a couple if times now and I have to admit. I agree with him. Obviously he has barrel loads of faults, history on this that colours judgment and no doubt will get the kitchen sink thrown at him over this. However I think what annoys people more than anything with Tony is that despite being the most hateable figure, a smarmy confidence trickster speaking in forked tongue with verbless sentences they know he's actually right. People want to hate Blair but they want to hate him for being wrong and he isn't so they hate him some more for good measure.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,632
    The rise of UKIP has turned Tories into PC lovin; multi culti Blairites! Oh well I knew they were all the same

    Night night until tmrw x
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,032
    William Hill have England 8/1 to win group D. I don't think that's too bad. It's a shame England tend to be underpriced. Italy have two lunchtime games in tough conditions to come whilst England will be in the south of the country to face CR and Uruguay. Don't fancy either of those to win the group. What's really needed is an international bookmaker.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,569
    Well maybe was my memory playing tricks on me, but I seemed to remember it as being a hot muggy World Cup!
    Eh_ehm_a_eh said:

    Absolutely Foxy, my worry is that this World Cup will be over for England before they find their feet in this heat. Often wonder if that Scotland team back in Argentina 78' finally got acclimatised to the heat just in time to come up against another European team in the first round, but not soon enough for that amazing win to make a difference. And the Dutch team that Scotland beat went onto to reach the finals, still think that was one of the most disgraceful World Cup finals in my memory.

    It never reached 70f when scotland played in 1978.

  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,569
    New Thread on Scottish polls, just so we don't feel left out of the World Cup. :)
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,032
    To be fair we're in that period once every 4 years where Englishness is centre stage. Polling being done right now that shows a slight narrowing of the gap wouldn't surprise me.
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