New polling tonight finds 78% saying they’ll comply with the latest lockdown regime – politicalbetti

The pollster did confirm it was post tonight's announcement

I think most people will, though it's the sort of question that doesn't always get truthful answers ("Will you commit any burglaries over the next month?").

MikeSmithson said:

NickPalmer said:

I think most people will, though it's the sort of question that doesn't always get truthful answers ("Will you commit any burglaries over the next month?").

My impression is that there is a high level of compliance which is why the Cummings episode was so damaging to Johnson.

Makes sense

NickPalmer said:

I think most people will, though it's the sort of question that doesn't always get truthful answers ("Will you commit any burglaries over the next month?").

There's something to that, but the number of people who won't be entirely truthful is probably not all that high, so even assuming for some untruth the level that say they will comply is significant, and why formal government advice and made law do matter more than merely making urgings.

We probably think of ourselves as credulous and independent minded, and maybe we are, and a lot of people certainly do not like Boris, but when The PM goes on TV like early in the year and said you must not leave your home, by and large people listened and listen, and even if not adhering to everything, took their own precautions.

Andy_JS said:

22% = about 15 million people.

Perhaps you think that since it isn't perfect stated compliance they might as well have not changed position.

Saying they'll comply and actually complying are two completely different things. The one is free, the other costs.

And we may well find that this lockdown was sold on the basis of a pack of lies, just like the last one.

All of this may be of limited value - but it'll be of no value at all if we have a return to in-person education in January. There's no use in trying to keep households apart if all their kids gather together every day to exchange (incredibly contagious) germs.

Of course, today's tier four advice inevitably includes the following provisions:

"You can leave home for education (formal provision, rather than extracurricular classes such as music or drama tuition, or out of school settings) or training, registered childcare and supervised activities for children that are necessary to allow parents/carers to work, seek work, undertake education or training, or attend a medical appointment. Parents can still take their children to school, and people can continue existing arrangements for contact between parents and children where they live apart. This includes childcare bubbles."

Letting the schools and universities resume in January will precipitate the last major mistake and U-turn of the Johnson Ministry. The students - if they are reckless enough to go back in the first place - will soon be incarcerated in halls for months, with the authorities terrified of allowing them to return home yet again. Children will have to be locked away when the consequences of bringing the virus home from the playground threaten the healthcare system with collapse.

After that there'll be no more decisions for the Prime Minister to take. The disease will dictate a draconian lockdown for everybody, until enough people have been immunised to allow restrictions to be eased. He'll then either jump or be pushed. The country and his party will both have had enough of him. Why would anyone want to put this failed leader in charge of dragging the prone body of the nation back up off the floor?

One of the few minor pleasures of this virus has been being able to find common ground with posters one normally agrees about nothing with.

dixiedean said:

Most people haven't had their Christmas plans altered today though.
Mine haven't changed. Those who will comply probably weren't the ones planning on a big Xmas anyways.

Trouble is, as I said at the end of the last thread, most people will have done their Christmas food shopping just in time to hear Boris tell them all bets are off. Half past four on the last Saturday before Christmas is 24 hours too late.

78% of the population agree with Boris?

How on earth is he ever going to recover from this disaster?

BluestBlue said:

78% of the population agree with Boris?

How on earth is he ever going to recover from this disaster?

Question is, what does 78 per cent of the parliamentary Conservative Party think?

BluestBlue said:

78% of the population agree with Boris?

How on earth is he ever going to recover from this disaster?

Come again?

geoffw said:

Talk of the devil ..
Mark Francois has surfaced to remind us that the ERG haven't gone away you know.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/12/19/boris-johnson-would-regret-trying-bounce-parliament-deal/

Tsk. Giving the devil a bad name.

Roger said:

geoffw said:

Even with the new strain, most of the variability in R comes from peoples' behaviour. We Brits may be proud of our bloody-mindedness but it will be the death of many of us. The approved vaccines are just-not-in-time.
The cussing at the PM's supposed volt-face is childish and dangerous. We should try to do as we have been told. We're all in it together, for better or worse.

I think most of us would just feel happier and safer with a better PM.

Maybe so, but he's the one you've got for now, for better or worse.

https://twitter.com/SteveBakerHW/status/1340420299880329217

Don't drive home for Christmas, and if you do, don't break down unless you really, really trust Grant Shapps.

Motorists whose cars break down on a live lane of a smart motorway will not be spotted by specialist radar on 95 per cent of the network because only 23.86 miles of carriageway has the technology, the Sunday Telegraph can reveal.
...
It has been estimated that 26 motorists a day suffer the horror of breaking down in a live lane having failed to reach an emergency refuge area. It takes on average 17 minutes for Highways England to spot a stranded vehicle before closing the lane to traffic. Since 2015, more than 40 people have died on smart motorways.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/12/19/highways-england-fails-fit-radar-spots-motorists-stranded-live/

dixiedean said:

BluestBlue said:

78% of the population agree with Boris?

How on earth is he ever going to recover from this disaster?

Telling his backbenchers that he really, really doesn't want to do the popular thing with the public, which is unpopular with his PCP, and that he won't do what is popular, unless forced to, then revealing he has been forced to do what is popular after all, is proving unsurprisingly popular with the public.
Genius!

Er, quite!

It also doesn't help that some of the PCP act as if they were on PCP...

DecrepiterJohnL said:

dixiedean said:

Most people haven't had their Christmas plans altered today though.
Mine haven't changed. Those who will comply probably weren't the ones planning on a big Xmas anyways.

Trouble is, as I said at the end of the last thread, most people will have done their Christmas food shopping just in time to hear Boris tell them all bets are off. Half past four on the last Saturday before Christmas is 24 hours too late.

Who does their big Christmas shop a full week beforehand? The big trips to the supermarkets are yet to come.

bigjohnowls said:

Tier 1 - Medium Risk

Tier 2 - High Risk

Tier 3 - Very High Risk

Tier 4 - You're Fucked

How so? It's less restrictive than the restrictions earlier in the year.

bigjohnowls said:

RobD said:

bigjohnowls said:

Tier 1 - Medium Risk

Tier 2 - High Risk

Tier 3 - Very High Risk

Tier 4 - You're Fucked

How so? It's less restrictive and the restrictions earlier in the year.

What is the official name for tier 4?

I don't think there is one, but it's hardly as you described.

RobD said:

bigjohnowls said:

RobD said:

bigjohnowls said:

Tier 1 - Medium Risk

Tier 2 - High Risk

Tier 3 - Very High Risk

Tier 4 - You're Fucked

How so? It's less restrictive and the restrictions earlier in the year.

What is the official name for tier 4?

I don't think there is one, but it's hardly as you described.

How about Christmas is cancelled, is that better?

Any news on shielding for the vulnerable?

RobD said:

bigjohnowls said:

RobD said:

bigjohnowls said:

RobD said:

bigjohnowls said:

Tier 1 - Medium Risk

Tier 2 - High Risk

Tier 3 - Very High Risk

Tier 4 - You're Fucked

How so? It's less restrictive and the restrictions earlier in the year.

What is the official name for tier 4?

I don't think there is one, but it's hardly as you described.

How about Christmas is cancelled, is that better?

Cancelled? I assume there will be zero festivities in those areas then.

Well given very high risk is already taken. I suppose we could go for extremely high risk but carry on with your festivities in a limited way.

Can still sing merry Xmas whilst washing your hands too.

Fantastic, well done for being optimistic.

This "mutant" strain is a pain in the backside, but watching evolution in real time is still fascinating. It will be very interesting to see what Porton Down say about why it is spreading faster.

What I'm wondering about is what will happen when, say, 25% of the population has been vaccinated. There will still be virus spreading and it will come into contact with these vaccinated people.

If the vaccines actually stop the current strains spreading then there will be evolutionary pressure for it to mutate into a new strain that can still infect the vaccinated. If the vaccines just makes the disease milder but don't stop it spreading, then that pressure won't be there.

Would it actually be better long term if the vaccines do _not_ stop the spread of covid? Or will just cutting the amount of virus in circulation reduce the number of chance mutations that could turn out nasty?

YBarddCwsc said:

So, for our Xmas game, we should start guessing who is (i) the first Zeleb and (ii) first politician to be found breaking the new rules.

A early contender is Mark Drakeford who tweeted "Please don’t rush to the shops tonight. As we move to alert level four in Wales most shops must close but supermarkets will remain open, and click and collect will be available."

Before rushing to the shops to panic-buy his turkey at 7pm.

https://twitter.com/alicetoftsx

Agreed, however I can trump (no pun intended) you. Someone who went campaigning, with a press entourage, in Bolton, 24 hours before placing his departure point, two hundred miles south into full-on lockdown.

Russia hacked America.

President Trump tweeted it could have been China.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-55374945

Cyclefree said:

Do I have any good news? No. Sorry.

Well you do, you just chose to gloss over it until the end.

350,000 people in the UK have already received the 1st Pfizer jab. The Oxford one is about to be greenlit. 20 million will have been vaccinated by March. So, yes, there is extremely good news.

This is a temporary setback but we're on the route out of this virus now. It may be a long drive but we've begun it.

Cyclefree said:

Brilliant. Just brilliant.

Son goes to work on Saturday morning. Several hours later his place of work is shut down. He is not eligible for furlough. He does not know whether he can be redeployed elsewhere in the organisation. He will be told by Monday. He will, like very very many others, now be looking for work when many possible openings in the sectors where he has experience - retail, hospitality and the arts - are closed and busy making people redundant.

The government is silent about any support for people like him made jobless at a moment's notice. Where the hell is Sunak and what is he doing?

Presumably those without furlough are expected to live on fresh air and bullshit from Ministers.

Son had already decided to stay with his father, brother and uncle - one support bubble since you ask - for Xmas, largely to protect me. For a brief moment I had 3 children in work. Now I have one unemployed, one whose business is on the brink of closure and one in the only work he can find, despite a good degree and doing nothing else but apply for jobs for the last 9 months. He thinks life for his generation has been "fucked". He's not wrong.

I don't care about Xmas even though it will be a lonely affair this year. But I do care about our young being abandoned by a government which promised help at the start but which has progressively abandoned them as things have got worse and gone on longer than we hoped.

We are now back where we are last March. Maybe the vaccine will help, provided we don't now find that this mutation will outwit the vaccine. But even with a vaccine, we have very many months of misery ahead.

Do I have any good news? No. Sorry.

Glad to have Fox jr2 back from The Smoke on Friday, he tested negative, before he came back. Fox jr 1 and his partner just coming on the day. Both seem in good spirits despite the year altering their plans. Looks like it is going to be a while before Fox jr 2 can get back to acting. Mrs Foxy and I have a few days off, but looks like making the Isle of Wight to visit her mum is impossible. One nephew stranded in Scotland, unable to get to London. What a shirty end to a shitty year.

Mysticrose said:

bigjohnowls said:

On brighter news my 90 year old Mum due to get her Covid jab at 5.40pm tomorrow.

Took my 94 year old uncle for his today and he gets his 2nd one on 9/1/21

A friend of mine's 80 yr-old mum had her first jab in the week. It's underway.

How did the media last night let the govt get away with portraying only 350k jabs in 10 days as good news?

And a little perspective folks. I know it's tough but loss, real loss, is when someone dies and you never see them again. Ever. It has happened to me all too often.

Polling is pretty unequivocal that the public want restrictions (particularly the elderly). It's good for the economy, it's good for public health.

It's bizarre to me that politicians keep getting behind the curve. Even Starmer who has made the right call a couple of times seems tentative.

rkrkrk said:

Polling is pretty unequivocal that the public want restrictions (particularly the elderly). It's good for the economy, it's good for public health.

It's bizarre to me that politicians keep getting behind the curve. Even Starmer who has made the right call a couple of times seems tentative.

A look at social media will show you that the polling is being skewed by people outside of Tier 4 laughing at Londoners. Just as happened in reverse a month or to ago to liverpool.

Meanwhile I know people tonight now deeply worried how they will pay their mortgage. Those living off the triple lock, final salary pension and BTL income should be deeply ashamed at what is being done to the younger generations in their name.

malcolmg said:

Mysticrose said:

moonshine said:

Mysticrose said:

bigjohnowls said:

On brighter news my 90 year old Mum due to get her Covid jab at 5.40pm tomorrow.

Took my 94 year old uncle for his today and he gets his 2nd one on 9/1/21

A friend of mine's 80 yr-old mum had her first jab in the week. It's underway.

How did the media last night let the govt get away with portraying only 350k jabs in 10 days as good news?

Because it's a fantastic start and much higher than I was expecting given the requirement to get the logistical gears to mesh into place.

This vaccine is a stunning achievement and the Gov't have done absolutely brilliantly on it.

They will need to buck up their ideas, 35K a day will take years to get through population. With the clowns running the show don't bank on it being done in 2021

They are doing it in a named patient basis and it has tough logistics. As they roll out more centres and other vaccines with an easier profile get approved it will accelerate

Mysticrose said:

moonshine said:

Mysticrose said:

moonshine said:

Mysticrose said:

bigjohnowls said:

On brighter news my 90 year old Mum due to get her Covid jab at 5.40pm tomorrow.

Took my 94 year old uncle for his today and he gets his 2nd one on 9/1/21

A friend of mine's 80 yr-old mum had her first jab in the week. It's underway.

How did the media last night let the govt get away with portraying only 350k jabs in 10 days as good news?

Because it's a fantastic start and much higher than I was expecting given the requirement to get the logistical gears to mesh into place.

This vaccine is a stunning achievement and the Gov't have done absolutely brilliantly on it.

Sorry no. They’ve had all year to worgame its implementation. It’s too slow. Clearly they’re operating on the basis that so far they have taken delivery of 800k doses, which on the sticker is enough for 400k people (though we now know you can eek out 1/6 more).

So they’re operating on the assumption that they take no new deliveries in the next few weeks. Why is that I wonder...

You are clearly angry with the Government as evidenced by your other later reply. However, letting that anger spill over onto the vaccine rollout is a mistake and demeans yourself and your arguments.

The vaccine development is an astonishing success story. Inside 12 months from virus outbreak to the start of vaccinations is astounding in scientific terms. That the UK Government pre-ordered in bulk SEVEN different developers is one of the most brilliant decisions in political judgement. And I write that as someone left of centre and a deep critic of Boris Johnson.

The Pfizer vaccine requires complex logistics and we have not 'had all year' to know whether it would be efficacious and how it needed to be transported and stored. The early rollout has gone far better than I was anticipating. Next week we will be vaccinating 200,000 people a day. This is a stupendous start.

It's a stellar achievement and the route out of this wretched virus.

I switched off before the very end of the Q&A. Where is the 200k a day figure from? Because I’ve read here all week we’d done 500-800k already.

The scientific achievement of the vaccine is a total game changer and I say that without really thinking about covid but the much wider potential of mRNA vaccines.

The logistics requirement is something that has been known about with the Pfizer vax since the start of the pandemic. They have spent $2bn making it idiot proof for their customers.

It has been clear to those with knowledge beyond that in the wider public domain for many months that Pfizer, Moderna and AZN were likely to have the required efficacy and be first to approval.

It’s a basic question. We’ve got something like 900k useful doses in our possession and have used a little more than a third. Why?

Charles said:

moonshine said:

Mysticrose said:

moonshine said:

Mysticrose said:

moonshine said:

Mysticrose said:

bigjohnowls said:

On brighter news my 90 year old Mum due to get her Covid jab at 5.40pm tomorrow.

Took my 94 year old uncle for his today and he gets his 2nd one on 9/1/21

A friend of mine's 80 yr-old mum had her first jab in the week. It's underway.

How did the media last night let the govt get away with portraying only 350k jabs in 10 days as good news?

Because it's a fantastic start and much higher than I was expecting given the requirement to get the logistical gears to mesh into place.

This vaccine is a stunning achievement and the Gov't have done absolutely brilliantly on it.

Sorry no. They’ve had all year to worgame its implementation. It’s too slow. Clearly they’re operating on the basis that so far they have taken delivery of 800k doses, which on the sticker is enough for 400k people (though we now know you can eek out 1/6 more).

So they’re operating on the assumption that they take no new deliveries in the next few weeks. Why is that I wonder...

You are clearly angry with the Government as evidenced by your other later reply. However, letting that anger spill over onto the vaccine rollout is a mistake and demeans yourself and your arguments.

The vaccine development is an astonishing success story. Inside 12 months from virus outbreak to the start of vaccinations is astounding in scientific terms. That the UK Government pre-ordered in bulk SEVEN different developers is one of the most brilliant decisions in political judgement. And I write that as someone left of centre and a deep critic of Boris Johnson.

The Pfizer vaccine requires complex logistics and we have not 'had all year' to know whether it would be efficacious and how it needed to be transported and stored. The early rollout has gone far better than I was anticipating. Next week we will be vaccinating 200,000 people a day. This is a stupendous start.

It's a stellar achievement and the route out of this wretched virus.

I switched off before the very end of the Q&A. Where is the 200k a day figure from? Because I’ve read here all week we’d done 500-800k already.

The scientific achievement of the vaccine is a total game changer and I say that without really thinking about covid but the much wider potential of mRNA vaccines.

The logistics requirement is something that has been known about with the Pfizer vax since the start of the pandemic. They have spent $2bn making it idiot proof for their customers.

It has been clear to those with knowledge beyond that in the wider public domain for many months that Pfizer, Moderna and AZN were likely to have the required efficacy and be first to approval.

It’s a basic question. We’ve got something like 900k useful doses in our possession and have used a little more than a third. Why?

We have 800K official does do enough to vaccinate 400K people

We’ve done 350K. So 85% of the possible.

We’ve also just given discretion to nurses on using a 6th dose (although that will probably have little impact on numbers of vaccines from this batch as used vials will already have been disposed of).

85% in 2 weeks is pretty damn good

You take me back to my original message. If that is the case, why have they been assuming they will get no more doses in time for the first batch patients to get their second, given the assurances from the producer? Just how bad are they expecting Brexit chaos to be?

Good morning, everyone.

Mr. Nichomar, depends a lot on circumstance. The Conservatives will cop serious flak for general trade disruption. But something like the vaccines would obviously have massive priority to jump a queue and if that were prevented from the EU side then the reverse would be true.

https://twitter.com/dizzy_thinks/status/1340555422932086784

nichomar said:

So if vaccine can’t get through because of brexit chaos who will our libertarians turn their wrath on? It’s not the EUs job to ensure supply to the UK will market forces solve the problem? More importantly why will the voters blame. It’s all well and good saying it won’t happen but it could.

I get the feeling that the Mail is beginning to waver in it's support for PM Johnson. The Sun certainly is.

FrancisUrquhart said:

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1340444736801435649?s=19

Don't worry about queues at Dover. We can always fly in what we need...

moonshine said:

Charles said:

moonshine said:

Mysticrose said:

moonshine said:

Mysticrose said:

moonshine said:

Mysticrose said:

bigjohnowls said:

On brighter news my 90 year old Mum due to get her Covid jab at 5.40pm tomorrow.

Took my 94 year old uncle for his today and he gets his 2nd one on 9/1/21

A friend of mine's 80 yr-old mum had her first jab in the week. It's underway.

How did the media last night let the govt get away with portraying only 350k jabs in 10 days as good news?

Because it's a fantastic start and much higher than I was expecting given the requirement to get the logistical gears to mesh into place.

This vaccine is a stunning achievement and the Gov't have done absolutely brilliantly on it.

Sorry no. They’ve had all year to worgame its implementation. It’s too slow. Clearly they’re operating on the basis that so far they have taken delivery of 800k doses, which on the sticker is enough for 400k people (though we now know you can eek out 1/6 more).

So they’re operating on the assumption that they take no new deliveries in the next few weeks. Why is that I wonder...

You are clearly angry with the Government as evidenced by your other later reply. However, letting that anger spill over onto the vaccine rollout is a mistake and demeans yourself and your arguments.

The vaccine development is an astonishing success story. Inside 12 months from virus outbreak to the start of vaccinations is astounding in scientific terms. That the UK Government pre-ordered in bulk SEVEN different developers is one of the most brilliant decisions in political judgement. And I write that as someone left of centre and a deep critic of Boris Johnson.

The Pfizer vaccine requires complex logistics and we have not 'had all year' to know whether it would be efficacious and how it needed to be transported and stored. The early rollout has gone far better than I was anticipating. Next week we will be vaccinating 200,000 people a day. This is a stupendous start.

It's a stellar achievement and the route out of this wretched virus.

I switched off before the very end of the Q&A. Where is the 200k a day figure from? Because I’ve read here all week we’d done 500-800k already.

The scientific achievement of the vaccine is a total game changer and I say that without really thinking about covid but the much wider potential of mRNA vaccines.

The logistics requirement is something that has been known about with the Pfizer vax since the start of the pandemic. They have spent $2bn making it idiot proof for their customers.

It has been clear to those with knowledge beyond that in the wider public domain for many months that Pfizer, Moderna and AZN were likely to have the required efficacy and be first to approval.

It’s a basic question. We’ve got something like 900k useful doses in our possession and have used a little more than a third. Why?

We have 800K official does do enough to vaccinate 400K people

We’ve done 350K. So 85% of the possible.

We’ve also just given discretion to nurses on using a 6th dose (although that will probably have little impact on numbers of vaccines from this batch as used vials will already have been disposed of).

85% in 2 weeks is pretty damn good

You take me back to my original message. If that is the case, why have they been assuming they will get no more doses in time for the first batch patients to get their second, given the assurances from the producer? Just how bad are they expecting Brexit chaos to be?

They’ve not been assuming that.

However we haven’t done trials on the efficacy of a one dose regime.

*if* it offers minimal protection and *if* there is an interruption to supply then those doses would have been wasted

It is better, from a risk reward perspective, to ensure than 95% of the most vulnerable are protected that possibly end up with no one protected

felix said:

nichomar said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

Mr. Nichomar, depends a lot on circumstance. The Conservatives will cop serious flak for general trade disruption. But something like the vaccines would obviously have massive priority to jump a queue and if that were prevented from the EU side then the reverse would be true.

I’d love to see the supply chain which puts the virus together, the origins of the different reagents etc down to the packaging how many vulnerable points are there even under normal circumstances.

You shouldn't gloat just because you got vaccine earlier living here in Spain...oh,,,,wait..no..you didn't.

No idea when I’ll get it or if I will my consultant didn’t know if it would be right or not for me, I’m also changing treatment I believe as the chemo and immuno therapy have been successful in stopping spread and growth and other options have become available. Spain will, I’m sure be rolling out vaccine in first quarter next year but the global pressure on supply chains will be enormous and mistakes and shortages will be inevitable.