As time runs out in the Brexit transition YouGov has “Brexit Wrong” once again with a double digit l
As time runs out in the Brexit transition YouGov has “Brexit Wrong” once again with a double digit lead – politicalbetting.com
With things being dominated by the American presidential election we have hardly looked at the ongoing effort by the government to come to an agreement before the the end of the Brexit transition period at the end of December. If that doesn’t happen the UK has no deal and is in very uncertain territory.
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2016 should have been a vote to leave the EU or not, 2020 should have been accept the governments negotiation or not. Direct democracy does not work unless the people asked also get say on alternative. Otherwise, the sound policy of putting pre 2016 major changes to our membership to the people is now being slain. Otherwise giving governments a blank check to get a deal through the commons, is a complete mockery of the 2016 vote. No? It could be a Labour government putting their interpretation of the 2016 vote through the commons between now and Christmas.
As in industrial relations, you vote to send your representatives to negotiate with the bosses, only those with straw for brains vote up front to accept whatever shit they come back with.
Taking direct democracy out the box without any experience how to properly use it was the most dumbest thing UK has ever done.1 -
What will be the plans for New Year's Eve?
Christmas bubbles for five days, then what, flat fizz for Hogmanay?0 -
I gather (council source) that the new tiers will be announced on Thursday, with "many" regions expected to be moved into stricter tiers, no doubt to get the rate down before the Christmas splurge.0
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I dread to think....given you have let everybody act like teenagers with a hall pass for 5 days over Christmas, trying to put that in the box for New Year Eve is very difficult.dr_spyn said:What will be the plans for New Year's Eve?
Christmas bubbles for five days, then what, flat fizz for Hogmanay?0 -
That is mainly as the public don't think we will get a Brexit Deal, if Boris does produced a Deal with the EU as I think he will those numbers will shift back towards most thinking Brexit was right.
52% voted Leave only on the basis of a Deal, if Leave without a Deal had been the only option I doubt more than 40% would have voted Leave
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1330253907445108736?s=200 -
Boris or Hancock will do this in the Commons, sometime on ThursdayNickPalmer said:I gather (council source) that the new tiers will be announced on Thursday, with "many" regions expected to be moved into stricter tiers, no doubt to get the rate down before the Christmas splurge.
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Saying that a deal is 95% agreed is a bit like saying that humans share 95% of their dna with earwigs (poetic licence on the number), i.e. completely meaningless.
Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.5 -
And how will it go down in the minds of Jo Public?NickPalmer said:I gather (council source) that the new tiers will be announced on Thursday, with "many" regions expected to be moved into stricter tiers, no doubt to get the rate down before the Christmas splurge.
"Lockdown lifted!" is my guess. Dark times ahead, around the turn of the year.0 -
That depends on what life is like under that deal. We don’t know yet. It certainly wont be “business as usual”.HYUFD said:That is mainly as the public don't think we will get a Brexit Deal, if Boris does produced a Deal with the EU as I think he will those numbers will shift back towards most thinking Brexit was right.
52% voted Leave only the basis of a Deal, if Leave without a Deal had been the only option I doubt more than 40% would have voted Leave
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1330253907445108736?s=200 -
Someone posted about Gavin Barwell earlier, and seeing his face again makes me wonder whether 95% is an underestimate.geoffw said:Saying that a deal is 95% agreed is a bit like saying that humans share 95% of their dna with earwigs (poetic licence on the number), i.e. completely meaningless.
Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.2 -
Or see the press preview on Wednesday evening if you don't want to wait.londonpubman said:
Boris or Hancock will do this in the Commons, sometime on ThursdayNickPalmer said:I gather (council source) that the new tiers will be announced on Thursday, with "many" regions expected to be moved into stricter tiers, no doubt to get the rate down before the Christmas splurge.
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No they won't. They will remain majority "wrong" for at least the whole of 2021 whether there is a deal or not.HYUFD said:That is mainly as the public don't think we will get a Brexit Deal, if Boris does produced a Deal with the EU as I think he will those numbers will shift back towards most thinking Brexit was right.
52% voted Leave only the basis of a Deal, if Leave without a Deal had been the only option I doubt more than 40% would have voted Leave
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1330253907445108736?s=20
A falsifiable prediction for you.1 -
London in Tier 2 I reckon.
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No they won't, you are just a diehard Remainer that is all, for whom only no Brexit at all will doIshmaelZ said:
No they won't. They will remain majority "wrong" for at least the whole of 2021 whether there is a deal or not.HYUFD said:That is mainly as the public don't think we will get a Brexit Deal, if Boris does produced a Deal with the EU as I think he will those numbers will shift back towards most thinking Brexit was right.
52% voted Leave only the basis of a Deal, if Leave without a Deal had been the only option I doubt more than 40% would have voted Leave
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1330253907445108736?s=20
A falsifiable prediction for you.0 -
Reminds me of IT projects that stuck at "95% complete" for ages.geoffw said:Saying that a deal is 95% agreed is a bit like saying that humans share 95% of their dna with earwigs (poetic licence on the number), i.e. completely meaningless.
Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.2 -
Of course people think Brexit is a bad idea; the filibustering by MPs from Jun 2016-Dec 2019 in order to try and stop it was bound to make people sick of it, and what with Covid it barely seems that important anyway - most people wanted less immigration and that’s now taken care of to an extent
If I booked the holiday of a lifetime and the travel agent phoned me every other day afterward saying it was delayed/might be cancelled altogether/you’ll have to come back in and talk it over with us/just because you booked it doesn’t mean we have to let you go/the resort isn’t built/there’s a worldwide pandemic and we’re not insured, I think I’d wish I hadn’t bothered1 -
Sky News
No one in tier 1
My guess, almost no one in tier 2 either, maybe Cornwall, Devon and Norfolk.0 -
Fuck sakeManchesterKurt said:Sky News
No one in tier 1
My guess, almost no one in tier 2 either, maybe Cornwall, Devon and Norfolk.0 -
I am saying what I think will happen, not what I want to happen.HYUFD said:
No they won't, you are just a diehard Remainer that is all, for whom only no Brexit at all will doIshmaelZ said:
No they won't. They will remain majority "wrong" for at least the whole of 2021 whether there is a deal or not.HYUFD said:That is mainly as the public don't think we will get a Brexit Deal, if Boris does produced a Deal with the EU as I think he will those numbers will shift back towards most thinking Brexit was right.
52% voted Leave only the basis of a Deal, if Leave without a Deal had been the only option I doubt more than 40% would have voted Leave
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1330253907445108736?s=20
A falsifiable prediction for you.
I am so far from being a diehard remainer that I effectively abstained from voting in 2016 (I voted, but in accordance with the instructions of my 17 year old son). I thought it didn't really matter, because in the event of a Leave vote, civilised adults would negotiate a civilised EEA type arrangement that I'd be perfectly happy with. What a moron.1 -
If you decide to go all the same, and when you get there you find that the resort isn't built, the beach is covered in sewage, you get nasty food poisoning and your insurance company refuses to pay up because you ignored the official advice, do you persist in blaming the travel agent for recommending cancellation?isam said:Of course people think Brexit is a bad idea; the filibustering by MPs from Jun 2016-Dec 2019 in order to try and stop it was bound to make people sick of it.
If I booked the holiday of a lifetime and the travel agent phoned me every other day afterward saying it was delayed/might be cancelled altogether/you’ll have to come back in and talk it over with us/just because you booked it doesn’t mean we have to let you go/the resort isn’t built/there’s a worldwide pandemic and we’re not insured, I think I’d wish I hadn’t bothered4 -
Agreed: 80% likely Tier 2, 20% likely Tier 3Anabobazina said:London in Tier 2 I reckon.
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In the bigger picture of line drawn through many polls, support for brexit will be a downward line forever now, till the tipping point vast majority of voters will say, why are we putting up with a brexit we loath? and pro brexit parties both of the time, and whose history enabled it, will be finished as political force.Gallowgate said:
That depends on what life is like under that deal. We don’t know yet. It certainly wont be “business as usual”.HYUFD said:That is mainly as the public don't think we will get a Brexit Deal, if Boris does produced a Deal with the EU as I think he will those numbers will shift back towards most thinking Brexit was right.
52% voted Leave only the basis of a Deal, if Leave without a Deal had been the only option I doubt more than 40% would have voted Leave
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1330253907445108736?s=200 -
The only poll that matters is the polls at the ballot box and for that we've had four consecutive polls that have led to Brexit being the public will: 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2019. Had any one of those four polls gone the other way then Brexit would never have occured.
Opinion polls like this are pretty meaningless nonsense. We've had supposedly polls saying that the public thought Brexit was wrong for years yet the general election didn't give Jo "Fuck Brexit" Swinson the majority to become "Next Prime Minister" as she'd claimed now did it? Maybe the public doesn't really want to say Fuck Brexit?
Prior to the referendum we were consistently told that opinion polls showed the public didn't care about Europe.2 -
What utter rubbish, most voters over 45 voted for Brexitgealbhan said:
In the bigger picture of line drawn through many polls, support for brexit will be a downward line forever now, till the tipping point vast majority of voters will say, why are we putting up with a brexit we loath? and pro brexit parties both of the time, and whose history enabled it, will be finished as political force.Gallowgate said:
That depends on what life is like under that deal. We don’t know yet. It certainly wont be “business as usual”.HYUFD said:That is mainly as the public don't think we will get a Brexit Deal, if Boris does produced a Deal with the EU as I think he will those numbers will shift back towards most thinking Brexit was right.
52% voted Leave only the basis of a Deal, if Leave without a Deal had been the only option I doubt more than 40% would have voted Leave
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1330253907445108736?s=200 -
This Christmas gimmick is insane. Many areas will have to endure weeks in Tier 3 just to “pay for” this nonsense over Christmas. FFS.0
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Laws are like sausages, how they should be made is a subject of disagreement between the UK and EU?FrancisUrquhart said:Sausage Wars...
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So you backed either Remain or at most a BINO Brexit, you just have an ideological agenda against a Canada style FTA let alone No DealIshmaelZ said:
I am saying what I think will happen, not what I want to happen.HYUFD said:
No they won't, you are just a diehard Remainer that is all, for whom only no Brexit at all will doIshmaelZ said:
No they won't. They will remain majority "wrong" for at least the whole of 2021 whether there is a deal or not.HYUFD said:That is mainly as the public don't think we will get a Brexit Deal, if Boris does produced a Deal with the EU as I think he will those numbers will shift back towards most thinking Brexit was right.
52% voted Leave only the basis of a Deal, if Leave without a Deal had been the only option I doubt more than 40% would have voted Leave
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1330253907445108736?s=20
A falsifiable prediction for you.
I am so far from being a diehard remainer that I effectively abstained from voting in 2016 (I voted, but in accordance with the instructions of my 17 year old son). I thought it didn't really matter, because in the event of a Leave vote, civilised adults would negotiate a civilised EEA type arrangement that I'd be perfectly happy with. What a moron.0 -
Of course; but that ship has sailed.gealbhan said:2016 should have been a vote to leave the EU or not, 2020 should have been accept the governments negotiation or not. Direct democracy does not work unless the people asked also get say on alternative. Otherwise, the sound policy of putting pre 2016 major changes to our membership to the people is now being slain. Otherwise giving governments a blank check to get a deal through the commons, is a complete mockery of the 2016 vote. No? It could be a Labour government putting their interpretation of the 2016 vote through the commons between now and Christmas.
As in industrial relations, you vote to send your representatives to negotiate with the bosses, only those with straw for brains vote up front to accept whatever shit they come back with.
Taking direct democracy out the box without any experience how to properly use it was the most dumbest thing UK has ever done.
I’m not a Labour voter, but their choice to give Johnson room to negotiate a deal is commendably responsible.
Whether he usefully uses it, or panders to the ‘spirit of Brexit’ crew, is another matter0 -
Why bloody have a tier 1 then, and why bloody leak to Sky News?ManchesterKurt said:Sky News
No one in tier 1
My guess, almost no one in tier 2 either, maybe Cornwall, Devon and Norfolk.1 -
The Christmas bubble idea seems to be much tighter than I expected. Seems quite moderate and reasonable to be frank - people would be doing this anyway!Anabobazina said:This Christmas gimmick is insane. Many areas will have to endure weeks in Tier 3 just to “pay for” this nonsense over Christmas. FFS.
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I think Cornwall and Suffolk and the Isle of Wight could still end up in Tier 1, very few cases thereManchesterKurt said:Sky News
No one in tier 1
My guess, almost no one in tier 2 either, maybe Cornwall, Devon and Norfolk.1 -
I don't think that there is a single person on this earth, not one, who in 2016 thought that Brexit would be implemented in anything like as disastrous a fashion as seems likely to happen on Jan 1st.2
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He has made a prediction, as have you. We will see.HYUFD said:
No they won't, you are just a diehard Remainer that is all, for whom only no Brexit at all will doIshmaelZ said:
No they won't. They will remain majority "wrong" for at least the whole of 2021 whether there is a deal or not.HYUFD said:That is mainly as the public don't think we will get a Brexit Deal, if Boris does produced a Deal with the EU as I think he will those numbers will shift back towards most thinking Brexit was right.
52% voted Leave only the basis of a Deal, if Leave without a Deal had been the only option I doubt more than 40% would have voted Leave
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1330253907445108736?s=20
A falsifiable prediction for you.
You are a diehard Leadership line follower, whatever that line might be, if we’re trading diehards.2 -
Tier 1 could be used in the futureIshmaelZ said:
Why bloody have a tier 1 then, and why bloody leak to Sky News?ManchesterKurt said:Sky News
No one in tier 1
My guess, almost no one in tier 2 either, maybe Cornwall, Devon and Norfolk.
Currently on Malmesbury's table he posts here every day every single part of the country is colour-shaded red. Once they're white then Tier 1 might be considered more appropriate I imagine?0 -
Or whatever he thinks that line will be, even if he misunderstands it and its made clear he's misunderstood then he still rigorously sticks to it.Nigelb said:
He has made a prediction, as have you. We will see.HYUFD said:
No they won't, you are just a diehard Remainer that is all, for whom only no Brexit at all will doIshmaelZ said:
No they won't. They will remain majority "wrong" for at least the whole of 2021 whether there is a deal or not.HYUFD said:That is mainly as the public don't think we will get a Brexit Deal, if Boris does produced a Deal with the EU as I think he will those numbers will shift back towards most thinking Brexit was right.
52% voted Leave only the basis of a Deal, if Leave without a Deal had been the only option I doubt more than 40% would have voted Leave
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1330253907445108736?s=20
A falsifiable prediction for you.
You are a diehard Leadership line follower, whatever that line might be, if we’re trading diehards.0 -
Don't be ridiculous Mr Nabavi.Richard_Nabavi said:I don't think that there is a single person on this earth, not one, who in 2016 thought that Brexit would be implemented in anything like as disastrous a fashion as seems likely to happen on Jan 1st.
Brexit has gone much better than you were claiming it would in 2016.0 -
So what, does not change the fact he has an ideological agenda against a Canada style FTA let alone No DealNigelb said:
He has made a prediction, as have you. We will see.HYUFD said:
No they won't, you are just a diehard Remainer that is all, for whom only no Brexit at all will doIshmaelZ said:
No they won't. They will remain majority "wrong" for at least the whole of 2021 whether there is a deal or not.HYUFD said:That is mainly as the public don't think we will get a Brexit Deal, if Boris does produced a Deal with the EU as I think he will those numbers will shift back towards most thinking Brexit was right.
52% voted Leave only the basis of a Deal, if Leave without a Deal had been the only option I doubt more than 40% would have voted Leave
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1330253907445108736?s=20
A falsifiable prediction for you.
You are a diehard Leadership line follower, whatever that line might be, if we’re trading diehards.0 -
You flatter me in claiming I have an ideological agenda about anything, actually. I just resent being pointlessly fucked about, inconvenienced and impoverished. Lots of people resent those things. Lots of people will perceive next year, rightly or wrongly, that brexit has done precisely those things to them.HYUFD said:
So you backed either Remain or at most a BINO Brexit, you just have an ideological agenda against a Canada style FTA let alone No DealIshmaelZ said:
I am saying what I think will happen, not what I want to happen.HYUFD said:
No they won't, you are just a diehard Remainer that is all, for whom only no Brexit at all will doIshmaelZ said:
No they won't. They will remain majority "wrong" for at least the whole of 2021 whether there is a deal or not.HYUFD said:That is mainly as the public don't think we will get a Brexit Deal, if Boris does produced a Deal with the EU as I think he will those numbers will shift back towards most thinking Brexit was right.
52% voted Leave only the basis of a Deal, if Leave without a Deal had been the only option I doubt more than 40% would have voted Leave
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1330253907445108736?s=20
A falsifiable prediction for you.
I am so far from being a diehard remainer that I effectively abstained from voting in 2016 (I voted, but in accordance with the instructions of my 17 year old son). I thought it didn't really matter, because in the event of a Leave vote, civilised adults would negotiate a civilised EEA type arrangement that I'd be perfectly happy with. What a moron.1 -
Surely the answer is that we simply don't know.HYUFD said:
No they won't, you are just a diehard Remainer that is all, for whom only no Brexit at all will doIshmaelZ said:
No they won't. They will remain majority "wrong" for at least the whole of 2021 whether there is a deal or not.HYUFD said:That is mainly as the public don't think we will get a Brexit Deal, if Boris does produced a Deal with the EU as I think he will those numbers will shift back towards most thinking Brexit was right.
52% voted Leave only the basis of a Deal, if Leave without a Deal had been the only option I doubt more than 40% would have voted Leave
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1330253907445108736?s=20
A falsifiable prediction for you.
Assuming there's a Deal, there's likely to be a boost for the government and for the concept of Brexit.
But.
That deal is likely to involve the UK having made concessions, in which case some parts of the Brexit coalition will be disappointed.
The sort of deal the government wants involves border frictions. I don't think many (any?) of us really understand what that looks like, and even if it goes well that's likely to be a cold shower of reality. Maybe it will be brief and invigorating. Maybe.
And the Brexit Bonus on Boris's Big Bus... it was always a bit notional- the cost of a frictiony border is going to eat up somewhere between most of the hundreds of millions a week and all of it plus some more. But even if the government does pump that cash into public services, it will get swamped by Rishi's book balancing. "Smaller cuts" is a tough sell.
And, at the end of the day, politics is a game all about ungrateful so-and-sos. Talk to any councillor or MP. In any change, there are winners and losers. The disappointment of those who lose is always stronger than the gratitude of the winners. And if you can't stand that joke, you shouldn't join up.2 -
At least I can say I did not vote for Farage, unlike youPhilip_Thompson said:
Or whatever he thinks that line will be, even if he misunderstands it and its made clear he's misunderstood then he still rigorously sticks to it.Nigelb said:
He has made a prediction, as have you. We will see.HYUFD said:
No they won't, you are just a diehard Remainer that is all, for whom only no Brexit at all will doIshmaelZ said:
No they won't. They will remain majority "wrong" for at least the whole of 2021 whether there is a deal or not.HYUFD said:That is mainly as the public don't think we will get a Brexit Deal, if Boris does produced a Deal with the EU as I think he will those numbers will shift back towards most thinking Brexit was right.
52% voted Leave only the basis of a Deal, if Leave without a Deal had been the only option I doubt more than 40% would have voted Leave
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1330253907445108736?s=20
A falsifiable prediction for you.
You are a diehard Leadership line follower, whatever that line might be, if we’re trading diehards.0 -
Give an inch, take a mile?Philip_Thompson said:
The Christmas bubble idea seems to be much tighter than I expected. Seems quite moderate and reasonable to be frank - people would be doing this anyway!Anabobazina said:This Christmas gimmick is insane. Many areas will have to endure weeks in Tier 3 just to “pay for” this nonsense over Christmas. FFS.
Should have just been Rule of Six (and people would have then stretched that!)0 -
It's to Philip's credit that he reconsiders his vote each election. I don't agree with his choices, but give me a flawed human any day over a robot.HYUFD said:
At least I can say I did not vote for Farage, unlike youPhilip_Thompson said:
Or whatever he thinks that line will be, even if he misunderstands it and its made clear he's misunderstood then he still rigorously sticks to it.Nigelb said:
He has made a prediction, as have you. We will see.HYUFD said:
No they won't, you are just a diehard Remainer that is all, for whom only no Brexit at all will doIshmaelZ said:
No they won't. They will remain majority "wrong" for at least the whole of 2021 whether there is a deal or not.HYUFD said:That is mainly as the public don't think we will get a Brexit Deal, if Boris does produced a Deal with the EU as I think he will those numbers will shift back towards most thinking Brexit was right.
52% voted Leave only the basis of a Deal, if Leave without a Deal had been the only option I doubt more than 40% would have voted Leave
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1330253907445108736?s=20
A falsifiable prediction for you.
You are a diehard Leadership line follower, whatever that line might be, if we’re trading diehards.0 -
Either that or you sit on the stinky beach saying "Lovely delicious fragrant sewage. And the D+V is doing wonders for my weight-loss plan."Richard_Nabavi said:
If you decide to go all the same, and when you get there you find that the resort isn't built, the beach is covered in sewage, you get nasty food poisoning and your insurance company refuses to pay up because you ignored the official advice, do you persist in blaming the travel agent for recommending cancellation?isam said:Of course people think Brexit is a bad idea; the filibustering by MPs from Jun 2016-Dec 2019 in order to try and stop it was bound to make people sick of it.
If I booked the holiday of a lifetime and the travel agent phoned me every other day afterward saying it was delayed/might be cancelled altogether/you’ll have to come back in and talk it over with us/just because you booked it doesn’t mean we have to let you go/the resort isn’t built/there’s a worldwide pandemic and we’re not insured, I think I’d wish I hadn’t bothered1 -
That’s not the point at all. If you have booked but haven’t yet gone, and have suffered all the aggravation of people trying to stop you going as per the hypothetical scenario I set out, you are bound to get a fair percentage of people thinking booking it in the first place wasn’t worth the hassle.Richard_Nabavi said:
If you decide to go all the same, and when you get there you find that the resort isn't built, the beach is covered in sewage, you get nasty food poisoning and your insurance company refuses to pay up because you ignored the official advice, do you persist in blaming the travel agent for recommending cancellation?isam said:Of course people think Brexit is a bad idea; the filibustering by MPs from Jun 2016-Dec 2019 in order to try and stop it was bound to make people sick of it.
If I booked the holiday of a lifetime and the travel agent phoned me every other day afterward saying it was delayed/might be cancelled altogether/you’ll have to come back in and talk it over with us/just because you booked it doesn’t mean we have to let you go/the resort isn’t built/there’s a worldwide pandemic and we’re not insured, I think I’d wish I hadn’t bothered0 -
@Philip_Thompson
I’m one of the more anti lockdown types on PB, insofar as I’ve long argued that absent a vaccine we have to learn to live with the virus somehow.
Yet now we have vaccines it seems incredibly stupid to me to relax the rules over Christmas, and to pay for it with harsher rules in December and January.
I mean, we need to get over Christmas, not fetishise it in this way.1 -
FPT
I never said "all will be find and dandy by next summer".Mexicanpete said:
Other than people wearing masks, not much looks to have changed. More shops boarded up in High Streets, hardly any '20 and '70 plate cars, but on the face of it much as before.FrancisUrquhart said:
I really haven't been out much since March, certainly not to anywhere with significant people, just for driving and walks in fairly remote countryside. I think I will be in for a bit of sensory overload as and when things start to open up and venture out to population centres.Mexicanpete said:
Don't, it's like "Mad Max, Beyond Thunderdome" outside!FrancisUrquhart said:
Is it a bit like the Fall Out game out there? I am hoping by the summer I can unlock the vault door and go and find out.Mexicanpete said:
Yeah but you've been locked up inside with your laptop on PB every day. I have been out working in the real world and it looks grim. Really, really grim. Unless of course you are just talking about the weather?Philip_Thompson said:
I'm quite optimistic for next summer onwards.Mexicanpete said:
I don't think the lead will be long lasting. Relief at a vaccine and a trade deal should boost Johnson, however it will soon subside at the realisation that we are well and truly up the creek.kle4 said:
Why is that? I don't see intractible remainers holding up their hands and thinking it ok to return to the Tories as a deal was had after all, perhaps they'd gain a few points back from those who had feared incompetence would mean no deal, but against that you have the Faragist element. Will there really be that much of a change?Mexicanpete said:
The Conservatives will see a double digit poll lead on a deal with the EU, irrespective of how inferior it is to our still being a member of the EU.Roy_G_Biv said:
The whole of Brexit is a Falklands moment for Britain.Mexicanpete said:
The blue collar Tories I rub shoulders with will see the trade deal as Johnson's second Falklands moment in a week (after the vaccine).HYUFD said:
He has a majority of 80 and can get it through regardless, the diehards can go off and join FarageCarlottaVance said:
I wonder if I can get a refund for all that "no deal" bog roll?
As in, Argentina's Falklands moment.
I do take Benpointer's, er, point, that in conjunction with a positive plan for vaccine rollout perhaps there will be a larger movement, though I'd also agree with him about longer term prospects in terms of Labour leads - though if it will be enough, I am uncertain of.
I think we could have a Roaring Twenties coming up.
The economic picture looks horrendous. I am in a business which is shielded by a statutory requirement for the service I provide. I have been busy, but the penny dropped a few weeks ago that almost all the work I am currently engaged in, was generated before lockdown.
Philip's assumption that it will all be fine and dandy by next summer is for the birds. We might see a "v" shaped recovery in the spring, although I suspect that will be simply indicate a swallow rather than a summer. The economy, across the developed world has been structurally devastated. I am not sure we have noticed that yet.
There is a lot of damage that needs to unwind and that will be upsetting for a lot of families and businesses. But there is also a lot of pent-up demand. A lot of companies may go out of business in the next six months but there will also be a lot of customers eager and waiting for businesses that survive until the summer - or new businesses that pop up from next summer onwards.
The economy has taken a battering, but after the battering will be a period of growth more considerable than any in living memory I predict. But for anyone who gets into that period having lost their business and their life's savings that won't be much sympathy to them.0 -
You can reconsider your choices or do a protest vote without ever voting for Farage, yet he still voted for Farage last yearRoy_G_Biv said:
It's to Philip's credit that he reconsiders his vote each election. I don't agree with his choices, but give me a flawed human any day over a robot.HYUFD said:
At least I can say I did not vote for Farage, unlike youPhilip_Thompson said:
Or whatever he thinks that line will be, even if he misunderstands it and its made clear he's misunderstood then he still rigorously sticks to it.Nigelb said:
He has made a prediction, as have you. We will see.HYUFD said:
No they won't, you are just a diehard Remainer that is all, for whom only no Brexit at all will doIshmaelZ said:
No they won't. They will remain majority "wrong" for at least the whole of 2021 whether there is a deal or not.HYUFD said:That is mainly as the public don't think we will get a Brexit Deal, if Boris does produced a Deal with the EU as I think he will those numbers will shift back towards most thinking Brexit was right.
52% voted Leave only the basis of a Deal, if Leave without a Deal had been the only option I doubt more than 40% would have voted Leave
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1330253907445108736?s=20
A falsifiable prediction for you.
You are a diehard Leadership line follower, whatever that line might be, if we’re trading diehards.0 -
My three household Christmas is 6 people anyway.Anabobazina said:
Give an inch, take a mile?Philip_Thompson said:
The Christmas bubble idea seems to be much tighter than I expected. Seems quite moderate and reasonable to be frank - people would be doing this anyway!Anabobazina said:This Christmas gimmick is insane. Many areas will have to endure weeks in Tier 3 just to “pay for” this nonsense over Christmas. FFS.
Should have just been Rule of Six (and people would have then stretched that!)1 -
I disagree. We in the North East have already gone 2 months without being able to socialise at all. By Christmas it will be over 3. The mental health toll is enormous, especially for those who live alone.Anabobazina said:@Philip_Thompson
I’m one of the more anti lockdown types on PB, insofar as I’ve long argued that absent a vaccine we have to learn to live with the virus somehow.
Yet now we have vaccines it seems incredibly stupid to me to relax the rules over Christmas, and to pay for it with harsher rules in December and January.
I mean, we need to get over Christmas, not fetishise it in this way.2 -
And you are not taking this support ongoing for ever for granted? 😂HYUFD said:
What utter rubbish, most voters over 45 voted for Brexitgealbhan said:
In the bigger picture of line drawn through many polls, support for brexit will be a downward line forever now, till the tipping point vast majority of voters will say, why are we putting up with a brexit we loath? and pro brexit parties both of the time, and whose history enabled it, will be finished as political force.Gallowgate said:
That depends on what life is like under that deal. We don’t know yet. It certainly wont be “business as usual”.HYUFD said:That is mainly as the public don't think we will get a Brexit Deal, if Boris does produced a Deal with the EU as I think he will those numbers will shift back towards most thinking Brexit was right.
52% voted Leave only the basis of a Deal, if Leave without a Deal had been the only option I doubt more than 40% would have voted Leave
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1330253907445108736?s=20
Look at the foundations of brexit and foundations of what is undermining it to realise what will happen.
There is no way England’s destiny to be part of a federal Europe can be stopped. The short term and fragile brexitgasm isn’t going to halt the outcome.
Brexit doesn’t have solid foundations in such things as economics, history, culture, sovereignty, all brexit is based on is politics. And in world of politics there can be an extremely popular platform, though wind the clock forward, only a handful of years sometimes, and this same popular platform can be the most unpopular platform.
I could be speaking here from someone who bought into brexit, and voted for it. But I still recognise it’s utterly doomed, and likely take its signatories to the bottom with it.
[insert picture of the titanic]0 -
If this is accurate, it is disappointing.
https://twitter.com/AndrewE_Dunn/status/13312791316952637440 -
We are out of Europe - we’ve left. How much more leaving do we have to do before we can say whether we like where we have gone?isam said:
That’s not the point at all. If you have booked but haven’t yet gone, and have suffered all the aggravation of people trying to stop you going as per the hypothetical scenario I set out, you are bound to get a fair percentage of people thinking booking it in the first place wasn’t worth the hassle.Richard_Nabavi said:
If you decide to go all the same, and when you get there you find that the resort isn't built, the beach is covered in sewage, you get nasty food poisoning and your insurance company refuses to pay up because you ignored the official advice, do you persist in blaming the travel agent for recommending cancellation?isam said:Of course people think Brexit is a bad idea; the filibustering by MPs from Jun 2016-Dec 2019 in order to try and stop it was bound to make people sick of it.
If I booked the holiday of a lifetime and the travel agent phoned me every other day afterward saying it was delayed/might be cancelled altogether/you’ll have to come back in and talk it over with us/just because you booked it doesn’t mean we have to let you go/the resort isn’t built/there’s a worldwide pandemic and we’re not insured, I think I’d wish I hadn’t bothered0 -
Quick recalculation... and I make it...Nigelb said:If this is accurate, it is disappointing.
https://twitter.com/AndrewE_Dunn/status/1331279131695263744
70% effective
1 -
No, as he has pointed out, it’s a pragmatic objection.HYUFD said:
So what, does not change the fact he has an ideological agenda against a Canada style FTA let alone No DealNigelb said:
He has made a prediction, as have you. We will see.HYUFD said:
No they won't, you are just a diehard Remainer that is all, for whom only no Brexit at all will doIshmaelZ said:
No they won't. They will remain majority "wrong" for at least the whole of 2021 whether there is a deal or not.HYUFD said:That is mainly as the public don't think we will get a Brexit Deal, if Boris does produced a Deal with the EU as I think he will those numbers will shift back towards most thinking Brexit was right.
52% voted Leave only the basis of a Deal, if Leave without a Deal had been the only option I doubt more than 40% would have voted Leave
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1330253907445108736?s=20
A falsifiable prediction for you.
You are a diehard Leadership line follower, whatever that line might be, if we’re trading diehards.0 -
I'm glad you think so, but I hate to tell you that for all practical purposes Brexit hasn't started yet. We are still in the Customs Union. We are still in the Single Market. We still follow EU regulations. We still have freedom of movement. We are still in the EU VAT scheme, We are still following EU state aid rules. We are still subject to ECJ rules. The Boris border in the Irish sea doesn't exist yet. The crisis over the Irish protocol hasn't started. No customs checks are being done in Dover. EU fishermen can still fish in British waters. UK fishermen can still land their catches in EU ports. The EU chemicals regulations still allow industry to operate. There are no tariffs. There are no vet certificates required for selling lamb to EU countries.Philip_Thompson said:
Don't be ridiculous Mr Nabavi.Richard_Nabavi said:I don't think that there is a single person on this earth, not one, who in 2016 thought that Brexit would be implemented in anything like as disastrous a fashion as seems likely to happen on Jan 1st.
Brexit has gone much better than you were claiming it would in 2016.
All that will disappear overnight on Dec 31st.
And there are no working computer systems, no customs agents in place, no detailed administrative processes established, nowhere for the lorries to wait, no vets to fill in the forms, and companies are completely unprepared for the change - unsurprisingly, because not only are they kiboshed by a global pandemic, but even more importantly they don't have a clue what is going to be required in 8 weeks time, or what tariffs will apply, or what forms they will have to fill in.
There has never, in living memory, been a self-inflicted disaster on this scale. It is absolutely staggering - far, far worse than the worst scenarios anyone was contemplating in 2016.8 -
What utter rubbish, we defeated potential invasion by Philip II, Napoleon and Hitler to avoid becoming part of a unified European Empire and even when in the EU we never joined the Euro or Schengen, the most we would ever rejoin now is the EEA and only under a Labour governmentgealbhan said:
And you are not taking this support ongoing for ever for granted? 😂HYUFD said:
What utter rubbish, most voters over 45 voted for Brexitgealbhan said:
In the bigger picture of line drawn through many polls, support for brexit will be a downward line forever now, till the tipping point vast majority of voters will say, why are we putting up with a brexit we loath? and pro brexit parties both of the time, and whose history enabled it, will be finished as political force.Gallowgate said:
That depends on what life is like under that deal. We don’t know yet. It certainly wont be “business as usual”.HYUFD said:That is mainly as the public don't think we will get a Brexit Deal, if Boris does produced a Deal with the EU as I think he will those numbers will shift back towards most thinking Brexit was right.
52% voted Leave only the basis of a Deal, if Leave without a Deal had been the only option I doubt more than 40% would have voted Leave
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1330253907445108736?s=20
Look at the foundations of brexit and foundations of what is undermining it to realise what will happen.
There is no way England’s destiny to be part of a federal Europe can be stopped. The short term and fragile brexitgasm isn’t going to halt the outcome.
Brexit doesn’t have solid foundations in such things as economics, history, culture, sovereignty, all brexit is based on is politics. And in world of politics there can be an extremely popular platform, though wind the clock forward, only a handful of years sometimes, and this same popular platform can be the most unpopular platform.
I could be speaking here from someone who bought into brexit, and voted for it. But I still recognise it’s utterly doomed, and likely take its signatories to the bottom with it.
[insert picture of the titanic]-1 -
I agree. But I think the Christmas Bubble idea is probably a lot stricter than what many people would have been thinking.Anabobazina said:@Philip_Thompson
I’m one of the more anti lockdown types on PB, insofar as I’ve long argued that absent a vaccine we have to learn to live with the virus somehow.
Yet now we have vaccines it seems incredibly stupid to me to relax the rules over Christmas, and to pay for it with harsher rules in December and January.
I mean, we need to get over Christmas, not fetishise it in this way.
Every Christmas normally I would see all my relatives that we could, touring around houses and stopping at them each for an hour or so then moving on to the next one.
What has been announced today is barely more than a "support bubble". If I wanted to go and see my family (which I'd already decided I wasn't going to do) then the rules actually make it clear that even with the so-called relaxation of the rules that still is NOT allowed.
What is allowed is a very limited, non-exchangeable bubble. So after seeing that we're thinking of maybe seeing my wife's sister for Christmas and that is it. No big family gathering, no seeing parents or grandparents or great grandparents. Just the one visit.1 -
Once the deal is done or not is when most people will consider the leaving to be over I’d say.Anabobazina said:
We are out of Europe - we’ve left. How much more leaving do we have to do before we can say whether we like where we have gone?isam said:
That’s not the point at all. If you have booked but haven’t yet gone, and have suffered all the aggravation of people trying to stop you going as per the hypothetical scenario I set out, you are bound to get a fair percentage of people thinking booking it in the first place wasn’t worth the hassle.Richard_Nabavi said:
If you decide to go all the same, and when you get there you find that the resort isn't built, the beach is covered in sewage, you get nasty food poisoning and your insurance company refuses to pay up because you ignored the official advice, do you persist in blaming the travel agent for recommending cancellation?isam said:Of course people think Brexit is a bad idea; the filibustering by MPs from Jun 2016-Dec 2019 in order to try and stop it was bound to make people sick of it.
If I booked the holiday of a lifetime and the travel agent phoned me every other day afterward saying it was delayed/might be cancelled altogether/you’ll have to come back in and talk it over with us/just because you booked it doesn’t mean we have to let you go/the resort isn’t built/there’s a worldwide pandemic and we’re not insured, I think I’d wish I hadn’t bothered0 -
Sure, so go into Tier 2 rather than have a daft Christmas gimmick which will keep you in Tier 3 until Valentine’s Day!Gallowgate said:
I disagree. We in the North East have already gone 2 months without being able to socialise at all. By Christmas it will be over 3. The mental health toll is enormous, especially for those who live alone.Anabobazina said:@Philip_Thompson
I’m one of the more anti lockdown types on PB, insofar as I’ve long argued that absent a vaccine we have to learn to live with the virus somehow.
Yet now we have vaccines it seems incredibly stupid to me to relax the rules over Christmas, and to pay for it with harsher rules in December and January.
I mean, we need to get over Christmas, not fetishise it in this way.0 -
Agreed.IshmaelZ said:
You flatter me in claiming I have an ideological agenda about anything, actually. I just resent being pointlessly fucked about, inconvenienced and impoverished. Lots of people resent those things. Lots of people will perceive next year, rightly or wrongly, that brexit has done precisely those things to them.HYUFD said:
So you backed either Remain or at most a BINO Brexit, you just have an ideological agenda against a Canada style FTA let alone No DealIshmaelZ said:
I am saying what I think will happen, not what I want to happen.HYUFD said:
No they won't, you are just a diehard Remainer that is all, for whom only no Brexit at all will doIshmaelZ said:
No they won't. They will remain majority "wrong" for at least the whole of 2021 whether there is a deal or not.HYUFD said:That is mainly as the public don't think we will get a Brexit Deal, if Boris does produced a Deal with the EU as I think he will those numbers will shift back towards most thinking Brexit was right.
52% voted Leave only the basis of a Deal, if Leave without a Deal had been the only option I doubt more than 40% would have voted Leave
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1330253907445108736?s=20
A falsifiable prediction for you.
I am so far from being a diehard remainer that I effectively abstained from voting in 2016 (I voted, but in accordance with the instructions of my 17 year old son). I thought it didn't really matter, because in the event of a Leave vote, civilised adults would negotiate a civilised EEA type arrangement that I'd be perfectly happy with. What a moron.
I was a bit more favourably inclined to our continued membership than you, but that’s pretty well my position.1 -
Why? The obvious policy is to give the Pfizer vaccine to the elderly and infirm then smash the cheap AZ vaccine out to the young and fit.Nigelb said:If this is accurate, it is disappointing.
https://twitter.com/AndrewE_Dunn/status/13312791316952637441 -
Tier 2 effectively bans socialising also - especially during a cold winter.Anabobazina said:
Sure, so go into Tier 2 rather than have a daft Christmas gimmick which will keep you in Tier 3 until Valentine’s Day!Gallowgate said:
I disagree. We in the North East have already gone 2 months without being able to socialise at all. By Christmas it will be over 3. The mental health toll is enormous, especially for those who live alone.Anabobazina said:@Philip_Thompson
I’m one of the more anti lockdown types on PB, insofar as I’ve long argued that absent a vaccine we have to learn to live with the virus somehow.
Yet now we have vaccines it seems incredibly stupid to me to relax the rules over Christmas, and to pay for it with harsher rules in December and January.
I mean, we need to get over Christmas, not fetishise it in this way.
So no, that is not a solution.0 -
Yeah, yeah, yeah. You've been predicting disaster just over the horizon for years now. The horizon never comes.Richard_Nabavi said:
I'm glad you think so, but I hate to tell you that for all practical purposes Brexit hasn't started yet. We are still in the Customs Union. We are still in the Single Market. We are still follow EU regulations. We still have freedom of movement. We are still in the EU VAT scheme, We are still following EU state aid rules. We are still subject to ECJ rules. The Boris border in the Irish sea doesn't exist yet. The crisis over the Irish protocol hasn't started. No customs checks are being done in Dover. EU fishermen can still fish in British waters. UK fishermen can still land their catches in EU ports. The EU chemicals regulations still allow industry to operate. There are no tariffs. There are no vet certificates required for selling lamb to EU countries.Philip_Thompson said:
Don't be ridiculous Mr Nabavi.Richard_Nabavi said:I don't think that there is a single person on this earth, not one, who in 2016 thought that Brexit would be implemented in anything like as disastrous a fashion as seems likely to happen on Jan 1st.
Brexit has gone much better than you were claiming it would in 2016.
All that will disappear overnight on Dec 31st.
And there are no working computer systems, no customs agents in place, no detailed administrative processes established, nowhere for the lorries to wait, and companies are completely unprepared for the change - unsurprisingly, because not only are they kiboshed by a global pandemic, but even more importantly they don't have a clue what is going to be required in 8 weeks time, or what tariffs will apply, or what forms they will have to fill in.
There has never, in living memory, been a self-inflicted disaster on this scale. It is absolutely staggering - far, far worse than the worst scenarios anyone was contemplating in 2016.
This time next year when life hasn't collapsed and we aren't in a catastrophe, what is your excuse reason going to be for disaster still being over the horizon?0 -
I wonder how you tell the difference?Roy_G_Biv said:
It's to Philip's credit that he reconsiders his vote each election. I don't agree with his choices, but give me a flawed human any day over a robot.HYUFD said:
At least I can say I did not vote for Farage, unlike youPhilip_Thompson said:
Or whatever he thinks that line will be, even if he misunderstands it and its made clear he's misunderstood then he still rigorously sticks to it.Nigelb said:
He has made a prediction, as have you. We will see.HYUFD said:
No they won't, you are just a diehard Remainer that is all, for whom only no Brexit at all will doIshmaelZ said:
No they won't. They will remain majority "wrong" for at least the whole of 2021 whether there is a deal or not.HYUFD said:That is mainly as the public don't think we will get a Brexit Deal, if Boris does produced a Deal with the EU as I think he will those numbers will shift back towards most thinking Brexit was right.
52% voted Leave only the basis of a Deal, if Leave without a Deal had been the only option I doubt more than 40% would have voted Leave
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1330253907445108736?s=20
A falsifiable prediction for you.
You are a diehard Leadership line follower, whatever that line might be, if we’re trading diehards.0 -
"we defeated potential invasion by Philip II, Napoleon and Hitler to avoid becoming part of a unified European Empire"HYUFD said:
What utter rubbish, we defeated potential invasion by Philip II, Napoleon and Hitler to avoid becoming part of a unified European Empire and even when in the EU we never joined the Euro or Schengen, the most we would ever rejoin now is the EEA and only under a Labour governmentgealbhan said:
And you are not taking this support ongoing for ever for granted? 😂HYUFD said:
What utter rubbish, most voters over 45 voted for Brexitgealbhan said:
In the bigger picture of line drawn through many polls, support for brexit will be a downward line forever now, till the tipping point vast majority of voters will say, why are we putting up with a brexit we loath? and pro brexit parties both of the time, and whose history enabled it, will be finished as political force.Gallowgate said:
That depends on what life is like under that deal. We don’t know yet. It certainly wont be “business as usual”.HYUFD said:That is mainly as the public don't think we will get a Brexit Deal, if Boris does produced a Deal with the EU as I think he will those numbers will shift back towards most thinking Brexit was right.
52% voted Leave only the basis of a Deal, if Leave without a Deal had been the only option I doubt more than 40% would have voted Leave
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1330253907445108736?s=20
Look at the foundations of brexit and foundations of what is undermining it to realise what will happen.
There is no way England’s destiny to be part of a federal Europe can be stopped. The short term and fragile brexitgasm isn’t going to halt the outcome.
Brexit doesn’t have solid foundations in such things as economics, history, culture, sovereignty, all brexit is based on is politics. And in world of politics there can be an extremely popular platform, though wind the clock forward, only a handful of years sometimes, and this same popular platform can be the most unpopular platform.
I could be speaking here from someone who bought into brexit, and voted for it. But I still recognise it’s utterly doomed, and likely take its signatories to the bottom with it.
[insert picture of the titanic]
You sound exactly like a Faragist.3 -
-
Because a cheap, 90% effective vaccine, which can be deployed world wide, would have been amazing.Anabobazina said:
Why? The obvious policy is to give the Pfizer vaccine to the elderly and infirm then smash the cheap AZ vaccine out to the young and fit.Nigelb said:If this is accurate, it is disappointing.
https://twitter.com/AndrewE_Dunn/status/1331279131695263744
The 70% figure is perfectly practicable, though, and there is a lot more data to come.1 -
And you voted for Theresa May! 🤦🏻♂️HYUFD said:
You can reconsider your choices or do a protest vote without ever voting for Farage, yet he still voted for Farage last yearRoy_G_Biv said:
It's to Philip's credit that he reconsiders his vote each election. I don't agree with his choices, but give me a flawed human any day over a robot.HYUFD said:
At least I can say I did not vote for Farage, unlike youPhilip_Thompson said:
Or whatever he thinks that line will be, even if he misunderstands it and its made clear he's misunderstood then he still rigorously sticks to it.Nigelb said:
He has made a prediction, as have you. We will see.HYUFD said:
No they won't, you are just a diehard Remainer that is all, for whom only no Brexit at all will doIshmaelZ said:
No they won't. They will remain majority "wrong" for at least the whole of 2021 whether there is a deal or not.HYUFD said:That is mainly as the public don't think we will get a Brexit Deal, if Boris does produced a Deal with the EU as I think he will those numbers will shift back towards most thinking Brexit was right.
52% voted Leave only the basis of a Deal, if Leave without a Deal had been the only option I doubt more than 40% would have voted Leave
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1330253907445108736?s=20
A falsifiable prediction for you.
You are a diehard Leadership line follower, whatever that line might be, if we’re trading diehards.0 -
No. You are getting utterly confused. Bringing party politics into it. Churchill saw our place in a federal Europe. Heath too. Bringing Second World War and Hitler into it, like he represents the federal EU position? 😂. History is against you. The economics undermines brexit more every day post jan 1st 2021, the grass always greener on the other side. Sovereignty you don’t understand at all, not something you Keep locked in a cellar, it’s a currency. We pool some in NATO to buy some security for example, every trade deal we spend some. A nation is based on culture, not borders with watch posts and patrol vessels.HYUFD said:
What utter rubbish, we defeated potential invasion by Philip II, Napoleon and Hitler to avoid becoming part of a unified European Empire and even when in the EU we never joined the Euro or Schengen, the most we would ever rejoin now is the EEA and only under a Labour governmentgealbhan said:
And you are not taking this support ongoing for ever for granted? 😂HYUFD said:
What utter rubbish, most voters over 45 voted for Brexitgealbhan said:
In the bigger picture of line drawn through many polls, support for brexit will be a downward line forever now, till the tipping point vast majority of voters will say, why are we putting up with a brexit we loath? and pro brexit parties both of the time, and whose history enabled it, will be finished as political force.Gallowgate said:
That depends on what life is like under that deal. We don’t know yet. It certainly wont be “business as usual”.HYUFD said:That is mainly as the public don't think we will get a Brexit Deal, if Boris does produced a Deal with the EU as I think he will those numbers will shift back towards most thinking Brexit was right.
52% voted Leave only the basis of a Deal, if Leave without a Deal had been the only option I doubt more than 40% would have voted Leave
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1330253907445108736?s=20
Look at the foundations of brexit and foundations of what is undermining it to realise what will happen.
There is no way England’s destiny to be part of a federal Europe can be stopped. The short term and fragile brexitgasm isn’t going to halt the outcome.
Brexit doesn’t have solid foundations in such things as economics, history, culture, sovereignty, all brexit is based on is politics. And in world of politics there can be an extremely popular platform, though wind the clock forward, only a handful of years sometimes, and this same popular platform can be the most unpopular platform.
I could be speaking here from someone who bought into brexit, and voted for it. But I still recognise it’s utterly doomed, and likely take its signatories to the bottom with it.
[insert picture of the titanic]0 -
The horizon is coming on Jan 1st. As at now, there are two possibilities: disaster, or major disaster. It's unclear which Boris will go for - he's such a ditherer that he probably doesn't know himself.Philip_Thompson said:
Yeah, yeah, yeah. You've been predicting disaster just over the horizon for years now. The horizon never comes.Richard_Nabavi said:
I'm glad you think so, but I hate to tell you that for all practical purposes Brexit hasn't started yet. We are still in the Customs Union. We are still in the Single Market. We are still follow EU regulations. We still have freedom of movement. We are still in the EU VAT scheme, We are still following EU state aid rules. We are still subject to ECJ rules. The Boris border in the Irish sea doesn't exist yet. The crisis over the Irish protocol hasn't started. No customs checks are being done in Dover. EU fishermen can still fish in British waters. UK fishermen can still land their catches in EU ports. The EU chemicals regulations still allow industry to operate. There are no tariffs. There are no vet certificates required for selling lamb to EU countries.Philip_Thompson said:
Don't be ridiculous Mr Nabavi.Richard_Nabavi said:I don't think that there is a single person on this earth, not one, who in 2016 thought that Brexit would be implemented in anything like as disastrous a fashion as seems likely to happen on Jan 1st.
Brexit has gone much better than you were claiming it would in 2016.
All that will disappear overnight on Dec 31st.
And there are no working computer systems, no customs agents in place, no detailed administrative processes established, nowhere for the lorries to wait, and companies are completely unprepared for the change - unsurprisingly, because not only are they kiboshed by a global pandemic, but even more importantly they don't have a clue what is going to be required in 8 weeks time, or what tariffs will apply, or what forms they will have to fill in.
There has never, in living memory, been a self-inflicted disaster on this scale. It is absolutely staggering - far, far worse than the worst scenarios anyone was contemplating in 2016.
This time next year when life hasn't collapsed and we aren't in a catastrophe, what is your excuse reason going to be for disaster still being over the horizon?
We can do review the degree of collapse at the end of January/early February.0 -
Fair enough.isam said:
Once the deal is done or not is when most people will consider the leaving to be over I’d say.Anabobazina said:
We are out of Europe - we’ve left. How much more leaving do we have to do before we can say whether we like where we have gone?isam said:
That’s not the point at all. If you have booked but haven’t yet gone, and have suffered all the aggravation of people trying to stop you going as per the hypothetical scenario I set out, you are bound to get a fair percentage of people thinking booking it in the first place wasn’t worth the hassle.Richard_Nabavi said:
If you decide to go all the same, and when you get there you find that the resort isn't built, the beach is covered in sewage, you get nasty food poisoning and your insurance company refuses to pay up because you ignored the official advice, do you persist in blaming the travel agent for recommending cancellation?isam said:Of course people think Brexit is a bad idea; the filibustering by MPs from Jun 2016-Dec 2019 in order to try and stop it was bound to make people sick of it.
If I booked the holiday of a lifetime and the travel agent phoned me every other day afterward saying it was delayed/might be cancelled altogether/you’ll have to come back in and talk it over with us/just because you booked it doesn’t mean we have to let you go/the resort isn’t built/there’s a worldwide pandemic and we’re not insured, I think I’d wish I hadn’t bothered
My view is that I couldn’t care less about Brexit anymore - I’m bored of the whole thing and just want something - anything - sorted so we don’t need to hear about it anymore.
Yet I fear we will be in state of perjury for ever more, with hardcore Brexiteers arguing we have never left, and hardcore Remainers saying the battle goes on.
It’s fucking exhausting.0 -
Apart from anything else, this could have been in the UK.
Tesla To Build Massive 100+ GWh Battery Plant At Giga Berlin
https://insideevs.com/news/456347/tesla-massive-100-gwh-battery-plant-germany/0 -
We haven't really though. We're still following all their rules as it stands.Anabobazina said:
We are out of Europe - we’ve left. How much more leaving do we have to do before we can say whether we like where we have gone?isam said:
That’s not the point at all. If you have booked but haven’t yet gone, and have suffered all the aggravation of people trying to stop you going as per the hypothetical scenario I set out, you are bound to get a fair percentage of people thinking booking it in the first place wasn’t worth the hassle.Richard_Nabavi said:
If you decide to go all the same, and when you get there you find that the resort isn't built, the beach is covered in sewage, you get nasty food poisoning and your insurance company refuses to pay up because you ignored the official advice, do you persist in blaming the travel agent for recommending cancellation?isam said:Of course people think Brexit is a bad idea; the filibustering by MPs from Jun 2016-Dec 2019 in order to try and stop it was bound to make people sick of it.
If I booked the holiday of a lifetime and the travel agent phoned me every other day afterward saying it was delayed/might be cancelled altogether/you’ll have to come back in and talk it over with us/just because you booked it doesn’t mean we have to let you go/the resort isn’t built/there’s a worldwide pandemic and we’re not insured, I think I’d wish I hadn’t bothered
Its like being in a house-share and giving notice that you're quitting so you cease to be a tenant with the rest of your housemates, only to say to your former house mates that since you have nowhere to live and they have a spare home would they mind if you sublet that room for a year?
Is that really leaving?0 -
How would the 2015 Election have gone if Cameron had not offered a referendum?0
-
And it still might be.Nigelb said:Apart from anything else, this could have been in the UK.
Tesla To Build Massive 100+ GWh Battery Plant At Giga Berlin
https://insideevs.com/news/456347/tesla-massive-100-gwh-battery-plant-germany/
Do you think if we'd voted Remain then cars wouldn't have been built in Germany anymore? 😕1 -
There are vacciNigelb said:
Because a cheap, 90% effective vaccine, which can be deployed world wide, would have been amazing.Anabobazina said:
Why? The obvious policy is to give the Pfizer vaccine to the elderly and infirm then smash the cheap AZ vaccine out to the young and fit.Nigelb said:If this is accurate, it is disappointing.
https://twitter.com/AndrewE_Dunn/status/1331279131695263744
The 70% figure is perfectly practicable, though, and there is a lot more data to come.
Absolutely agree - having an end-game of vaccination shifts the cost-benefit analysis of stronger containment measures vs learn to live with it firmly towards the limited-period containment side.Anabobazina said:@Philip_Thompson
I’m one of the more anti lockdown types on PB, insofar as I’ve long argued that absent a vaccine we have to learn to live with the virus somehow.
Yet now we have vaccines it seems incredibly stupid to me to relax the rules over Christmas, and to pay for it with harsher rules in December and January.
I mean, we need to get over Christmas, not fetishise it in this way.0 -
Outdoor heaters I guess. I admit it’s still pretty grim but fair better than T3.Gallowgate said:
Tier 2 effectively bans socialising also - especially during a cold winter.Anabobazina said:
Sure, so go into Tier 2 rather than have a daft Christmas gimmick which will keep you in Tier 3 until Valentine’s Day!Gallowgate said:
I disagree. We in the North East have already gone 2 months without being able to socialise at all. By Christmas it will be over 3. The mental health toll is enormous, especially for those who live alone.Anabobazina said:@Philip_Thompson
I’m one of the more anti lockdown types on PB, insofar as I’ve long argued that absent a vaccine we have to learn to live with the virus somehow.
Yet now we have vaccines it seems incredibly stupid to me to relax the rules over Christmas, and to pay for it with harsher rules in December and January.
I mean, we need to get over Christmas, not fetishise it in this way.
So no, that is not a solution.0 -
Can't wait.Richard_Nabavi said:
The horizon is coming on Jan 1st. As at now, there are two possibilities: disaster, or major disaster. It's unclear which Boris will go for - he's such a ditherer that he probably doesn't know himself.Philip_Thompson said:
Yeah, yeah, yeah. You've been predicting disaster just over the horizon for years now. The horizon never comes.Richard_Nabavi said:
I'm glad you think so, but I hate to tell you that for all practical purposes Brexit hasn't started yet. We are still in the Customs Union. We are still in the Single Market. We are still follow EU regulations. We still have freedom of movement. We are still in the EU VAT scheme, We are still following EU state aid rules. We are still subject to ECJ rules. The Boris border in the Irish sea doesn't exist yet. The crisis over the Irish protocol hasn't started. No customs checks are being done in Dover. EU fishermen can still fish in British waters. UK fishermen can still land their catches in EU ports. The EU chemicals regulations still allow industry to operate. There are no tariffs. There are no vet certificates required for selling lamb to EU countries.Philip_Thompson said:
Don't be ridiculous Mr Nabavi.Richard_Nabavi said:I don't think that there is a single person on this earth, not one, who in 2016 thought that Brexit would be implemented in anything like as disastrous a fashion as seems likely to happen on Jan 1st.
Brexit has gone much better than you were claiming it would in 2016.
All that will disappear overnight on Dec 31st.
And there are no working computer systems, no customs agents in place, no detailed administrative processes established, nowhere for the lorries to wait, and companies are completely unprepared for the change - unsurprisingly, because not only are they kiboshed by a global pandemic, but even more importantly they don't have a clue what is going to be required in 8 weeks time, or what tariffs will apply, or what forms they will have to fill in.
There has never, in living memory, been a self-inflicted disaster on this scale. It is absolutely staggering - far, far worse than the worst scenarios anyone was contemplating in 2016.
This time next year when life hasn't collapsed and we aren't in a catastrophe, what is your excuse reason going to be for disaster still being over the horizon?
We can do review the degree of collapse at the end of January/early February.
I'm putting my colours on the mast. There will be disruption in H1 2021 but by this time next year (Q3 and Q4 2021) we will be growing fast starting a period of sustained economic growth.0 -
I love the headline on the article at the bottom of the page...CarlottaVance said:0 -
We have left, as a matter of law.Philip_Thompson said:
We haven't really though. We're still following all their rules as it stands.Anabobazina said:
We are out of Europe - we’ve left. How much more leaving do we have to do before we can say whether we like where we have gone?isam said:
That’s not the point at all. If you have booked but haven’t yet gone, and have suffered all the aggravation of people trying to stop you going as per the hypothetical scenario I set out, you are bound to get a fair percentage of people thinking booking it in the first place wasn’t worth the hassle.Richard_Nabavi said:
If you decide to go all the same, and when you get there you find that the resort isn't built, the beach is covered in sewage, you get nasty food poisoning and your insurance company refuses to pay up because you ignored the official advice, do you persist in blaming the travel agent for recommending cancellation?isam said:Of course people think Brexit is a bad idea; the filibustering by MPs from Jun 2016-Dec 2019 in order to try and stop it was bound to make people sick of it.
If I booked the holiday of a lifetime and the travel agent phoned me every other day afterward saying it was delayed/might be cancelled altogether/you’ll have to come back in and talk it over with us/just because you booked it doesn’t mean we have to let you go/the resort isn’t built/there’s a worldwide pandemic and we’re not insured, I think I’d wish I hadn’t bothered
Its like being in a house-share and giving notice that you're quitting so you cease to be a tenant with the rest of your housemates, only to say to your former house mates that since you have nowhere to live and they have a spare home would they mind if you sublet that room for a year?
Is that really leaving?
And four years after the vote you’re still trading meaningless metaphors.0 -
0
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Are you new to the concept of de jure versus de facto?Nigelb said:
We have left, as a matter of law.Philip_Thompson said:
We haven't really though. We're still following all their rules as it stands.Anabobazina said:
We are out of Europe - we’ve left. How much more leaving do we have to do before we can say whether we like where we have gone?isam said:
That’s not the point at all. If you have booked but haven’t yet gone, and have suffered all the aggravation of people trying to stop you going as per the hypothetical scenario I set out, you are bound to get a fair percentage of people thinking booking it in the first place wasn’t worth the hassle.Richard_Nabavi said:
If you decide to go all the same, and when you get there you find that the resort isn't built, the beach is covered in sewage, you get nasty food poisoning and your insurance company refuses to pay up because you ignored the official advice, do you persist in blaming the travel agent for recommending cancellation?isam said:Of course people think Brexit is a bad idea; the filibustering by MPs from Jun 2016-Dec 2019 in order to try and stop it was bound to make people sick of it.
If I booked the holiday of a lifetime and the travel agent phoned me every other day afterward saying it was delayed/might be cancelled altogether/you’ll have to come back in and talk it over with us/just because you booked it doesn’t mean we have to let you go/the resort isn’t built/there’s a worldwide pandemic and we’re not insured, I think I’d wish I hadn’t bothered
Its like being in a house-share and giving notice that you're quitting so you cease to be a tenant with the rest of your housemates, only to say to your former house mates that since you have nowhere to live and they have a spare home would they mind if you sublet that room for a year?
Is that really leaving?
And four years after the vote you’re still trading meaningless metaphors.
We have left de jure but we have not left de facto - that is about the only thing that @Richard_Nabavi and I agree on I believe.0 -
I’d say most people agree with you, hence the polling.Anabobazina said:
Fair enough.isam said:
Once the deal is done or not is when most people will consider the leaving to be over I’d say.Anabobazina said:
We are out of Europe - we’ve left. How much more leaving do we have to do before we can say whether we like where we have gone?isam said:
That’s not the point at all. If you have booked but haven’t yet gone, and have suffered all the aggravation of people trying to stop you going as per the hypothetical scenario I set out, you are bound to get a fair percentage of people thinking booking it in the first place wasn’t worth the hassle.Richard_Nabavi said:
If you decide to go all the same, and when you get there you find that the resort isn't built, the beach is covered in sewage, you get nasty food poisoning and your insurance company refuses to pay up because you ignored the official advice, do you persist in blaming the travel agent for recommending cancellation?isam said:Of course people think Brexit is a bad idea; the filibustering by MPs from Jun 2016-Dec 2019 in order to try and stop it was bound to make people sick of it.
If I booked the holiday of a lifetime and the travel agent phoned me every other day afterward saying it was delayed/might be cancelled altogether/you’ll have to come back in and talk it over with us/just because you booked it doesn’t mean we have to let you go/the resort isn’t built/there’s a worldwide pandemic and we’re not insured, I think I’d wish I hadn’t bothered
My view is that I couldn’t care less about Brexit anymore - I’m bored of the whole thing and just want something - anything - sorted so we don’t need to hear about it anymore.
Yet I fear we will be in state of perjury for ever more, with hardcore Brexiteers arguing we have never left, and hardcore Remainers saying the battle goes on.
It’s fucking exhausting.
The hardcore Brexiteers are those who wanted to leave in the 90s over things that most of the public don’t really care about (metric system etc). Most people voted Leave because of Blair’s A8 accession policy, but those people have more on their plate now with the economic crisis caused by the pandemic, so they probably don’t care either now.2 -
The point is that, even if you think that Brexit is a good idea in the longer term, it is impossible to imagine it being more incompetently implemented than Boris is managing, Crashing into chaos, in the middle of a pandemic, with just days to go between knowing what the relationship will be and companies and civil servants having to implement it, with Xmas in the middle, and no computer systems in place - how on earth could it have been done worse?Philip_Thompson said:
Can't wait.Richard_Nabavi said:
The horizon is coming on Jan 1st. As at now, there are two possibilities: disaster, or major disaster. It's unclear which Boris will go for - he's such a ditherer that he probably doesn't know himself.Philip_Thompson said:
Yeah, yeah, yeah. You've been predicting disaster just over the horizon for years now. The horizon never comes.Richard_Nabavi said:
I'm glad you think so, but I hate to tell you that for all practical purposes Brexit hasn't started yet. We are still in the Customs Union. We are still in the Single Market. We are still follow EU regulations. We still have freedom of movement. We are still in the EU VAT scheme, We are still following EU state aid rules. We are still subject to ECJ rules. The Boris border in the Irish sea doesn't exist yet. The crisis over the Irish protocol hasn't started. No customs checks are being done in Dover. EU fishermen can still fish in British waters. UK fishermen can still land their catches in EU ports. The EU chemicals regulations still allow industry to operate. There are no tariffs. There are no vet certificates required for selling lamb to EU countries.Philip_Thompson said:
Don't be ridiculous Mr Nabavi.Richard_Nabavi said:I don't think that there is a single person on this earth, not one, who in 2016 thought that Brexit would be implemented in anything like as disastrous a fashion as seems likely to happen on Jan 1st.
Brexit has gone much better than you were claiming it would in 2016.
All that will disappear overnight on Dec 31st.
And there are no working computer systems, no customs agents in place, no detailed administrative processes established, nowhere for the lorries to wait, and companies are completely unprepared for the change - unsurprisingly, because not only are they kiboshed by a global pandemic, but even more importantly they don't have a clue what is going to be required in 8 weeks time, or what tariffs will apply, or what forms they will have to fill in.
There has never, in living memory, been a self-inflicted disaster on this scale. It is absolutely staggering - far, far worse than the worst scenarios anyone was contemplating in 2016.
This time next year when life hasn't collapsed and we aren't in a catastrophe, what is your excuse reason going to be for disaster still being over the horizon?
We can do review the degree of collapse at the end of January/early February.
I'm putting my colours on the mast. There will be disruption in H1 2021 but by this time next year (Q3 and Q4 2021) we will be growing fast starting a period of sustained economic growth.6 -
Of course it is.Richard_Nabavi said:
The point is that, even if you think that Brexit is a good idea in the longer term, it is impossible to imagine it being more incompetently implemented than Boris is managing, Crashing into chaos, in the middle of a pandemic, with just days to go between knowing what the relationship will be and companies and civil servants having to implement it, with Xmas in the middle, and no computer systems in place - how on earth could it have been done worse?Philip_Thompson said:
Can't wait.Richard_Nabavi said:
The horizon is coming on Jan 1st. As at now, there are two possibilities: disaster, or major disaster. It's unclear which Boris will go for - he's such a ditherer that he probably doesn't know himself.Philip_Thompson said:
Yeah, yeah, yeah. You've been predicting disaster just over the horizon for years now. The horizon never comes.Richard_Nabavi said:
I'm glad you think so, but I hate to tell you that for all practical purposes Brexit hasn't started yet. We are still in the Customs Union. We are still in the Single Market. We are still follow EU regulations. We still have freedom of movement. We are still in the EU VAT scheme, We are still following EU state aid rules. We are still subject to ECJ rules. The Boris border in the Irish sea doesn't exist yet. The crisis over the Irish protocol hasn't started. No customs checks are being done in Dover. EU fishermen can still fish in British waters. UK fishermen can still land their catches in EU ports. The EU chemicals regulations still allow industry to operate. There are no tariffs. There are no vet certificates required for selling lamb to EU countries.Philip_Thompson said:
Don't be ridiculous Mr Nabavi.Richard_Nabavi said:I don't think that there is a single person on this earth, not one, who in 2016 thought that Brexit would be implemented in anything like as disastrous a fashion as seems likely to happen on Jan 1st.
Brexit has gone much better than you were claiming it would in 2016.
All that will disappear overnight on Dec 31st.
And there are no working computer systems, no customs agents in place, no detailed administrative processes established, nowhere for the lorries to wait, and companies are completely unprepared for the change - unsurprisingly, because not only are they kiboshed by a global pandemic, but even more importantly they don't have a clue what is going to be required in 8 weeks time, or what tariffs will apply, or what forms they will have to fill in.
There has never, in living memory, been a self-inflicted disaster on this scale. It is absolutely staggering - far, far worse than the worst scenarios anyone was contemplating in 2016.
This time next year when life hasn't collapsed and we aren't in a catastrophe, what is your excuse reason going to be for disaster still being over the horizon?
We can do review the degree of collapse at the end of January/early February.
I'm putting my colours on the mast. There will be disruption in H1 2021 but by this time next year (Q3 and Q4 2021) we will be growing fast starting a period of sustained economic growth.
The pandemic is perfect cover for this to be happening - trade and transport is suppressed and support exists that would not normally. We are lucky this is occuring during a pandemic.
Negotiations with the EU were always going to go until 23:59 metaphorically. Anyone who didn't expect that hasn't paid any attention whatsoever to any talks within Europe within my lifetime at least.
It could have been much worse. Its going as well as I could have hoped for so far.
EDIT: "lucky with a pandemic" sounds awful, wish I hadn't phrased it that way. I mean if you're going to have Brexit and going to have a pandemic then lucky they coincidentally came together so can be over and done with together. Having one after the other would be worse.0 -
But trading meaningless metaphors as a former member of the golf club, is like getting a divorce and still expecting be able to sell your goods in the market even though the marketplace has rules about seeing your children every second weekend but only on the fairway of the 14th.Nigelb said:
We have left, as a matter of law.Philip_Thompson said:
We haven't really though. We're still following all their rules as it stands.Anabobazina said:
We are out of Europe - we’ve left. How much more leaving do we have to do before we can say whether we like where we have gone?isam said:
That’s not the point at all. If you have booked but haven’t yet gone, and have suffered all the aggravation of people trying to stop you going as per the hypothetical scenario I set out, you are bound to get a fair percentage of people thinking booking it in the first place wasn’t worth the hassle.Richard_Nabavi said:
If you decide to go all the same, and when you get there you find that the resort isn't built, the beach is covered in sewage, you get nasty food poisoning and your insurance company refuses to pay up because you ignored the official advice, do you persist in blaming the travel agent for recommending cancellation?isam said:Of course people think Brexit is a bad idea; the filibustering by MPs from Jun 2016-Dec 2019 in order to try and stop it was bound to make people sick of it.
If I booked the holiday of a lifetime and the travel agent phoned me every other day afterward saying it was delayed/might be cancelled altogether/you’ll have to come back in and talk it over with us/just because you booked it doesn’t mean we have to let you go/the resort isn’t built/there’s a worldwide pandemic and we’re not insured, I think I’d wish I hadn’t bothered
Its like being in a house-share and giving notice that you're quitting so you cease to be a tenant with the rest of your housemates, only to say to your former house mates that since you have nowhere to live and they have a spare home would they mind if you sublet that room for a year?
Is that really leaving?
And four years after the vote you’re still trading meaningless metaphors.
And do we really think that the German playing-card manufacturers will allow the neoliberalcapitalosocialist fascist-communist anarchy dictatorship to stop trade when we already hold all the 4D chess pieces?
It's just like the Roman-Aztec war all over again, except this time no victory is better than a bad victory, which is why Churchill wanted to keep us out of the War of the Second Coalition in the first place. He knew better than most that the unelected Joan of Arc never had her accounts audited.1 -
What was all the embargo stuff about? That has been reported everywhere else already.CarlottaVance said:twitter.com/FinancialTimes/status/1331379590816796672?s=20
0 -
I have no complaints, the deal Boris ends up with will not be a million miles from hersPhilip_Thompson said:
And you voted for Theresa May! 🤦🏻♂️HYUFD said:
You can reconsider your choices or do a protest vote without ever voting for Farage, yet he still voted for Farage last yearRoy_G_Biv said:
It's to Philip's credit that he reconsiders his vote each election. I don't agree with his choices, but give me a flawed human any day over a robot.HYUFD said:
At least I can say I did not vote for Farage, unlike youPhilip_Thompson said:
Or whatever he thinks that line will be, even if he misunderstands it and its made clear he's misunderstood then he still rigorously sticks to it.Nigelb said:
He has made a prediction, as have you. We will see.HYUFD said:
No they won't, you are just a diehard Remainer that is all, for whom only no Brexit at all will doIshmaelZ said:
No they won't. They will remain majority "wrong" for at least the whole of 2021 whether there is a deal or not.HYUFD said:That is mainly as the public don't think we will get a Brexit Deal, if Boris does produced a Deal with the EU as I think he will those numbers will shift back towards most thinking Brexit was right.
52% voted Leave only the basis of a Deal, if Leave without a Deal had been the only option I doubt more than 40% would have voted Leave
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1330253907445108736?s=20
A falsifiable prediction for you.
You are a diehard Leadership line follower, whatever that line might be, if we’re trading diehards.0 -
I see the FT is reporting that Britain's don't understand (economic) statistics....well if the British media reporting of COVID stats are anything to go by, not really surprising.1
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Churchill did not see Britain as part of a Federal Europe, only the continent, for him we would always be part of the Anglosphere and the Empire, now the Commonwealth. Heath was an exception.gealbhan said:
No. You are getting utterly confused. Bringing party politics into it. Churchill saw our place in a federal Europe. Heath too. Bringing Second World War and Hitler into it, like he represents the federal EU position? 😂. History is against you. The economics undermines brexit more every day post jan 1st 2021, the grass always greener on the other side. Sovereignty you don’t understand at all, not something you Keep locked in a cellar, it’s a currency. We pool some in NATO to buy some security for example, every trade deal we spend some. A nation is based on culture, not borders with watch posts and patrol vessels.HYUFD said:
What utter rubbish, we defeated potential invasion by Philip II, Napoleon and Hitler to avoid becoming part of a unified European Empire and even when in the EU we never joined the Euro or Schengen, the most we would ever rejoin now is the EEA and only under a Labour governmentgealbhan said:
And you are not taking this support ongoing for ever for granted? 😂HYUFD said:
What utter rubbish, most voters over 45 voted for Brexitgealbhan said:
In the bigger picture of line drawn through many polls, support for brexit will be a downward line forever now, till the tipping point vast majority of voters will say, why are we putting up with a brexit we loath? and pro brexit parties both of the time, and whose history enabled it, will be finished as political force.Gallowgate said:
That depends on what life is like under that deal. We don’t know yet. It certainly wont be “business as usual”.HYUFD said:That is mainly as the public don't think we will get a Brexit Deal, if Boris does produced a Deal with the EU as I think he will those numbers will shift back towards most thinking Brexit was right.
52% voted Leave only the basis of a Deal, if Leave without a Deal had been the only option I doubt more than 40% would have voted Leave
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1330253907445108736?s=20
Look at the foundations of brexit and foundations of what is undermining it to realise what will happen.
There is no way England’s destiny to be part of a federal Europe can be stopped. The short term and fragile brexitgasm isn’t going to halt the outcome.
Brexit doesn’t have solid foundations in such things as economics, history, culture, sovereignty, all brexit is based on is politics. And in world of politics there can be an extremely popular platform, though wind the clock forward, only a handful of years sometimes, and this same popular platform can be the most unpopular platform.
I could be speaking here from someone who bought into brexit, and voted for it. But I still recognise it’s utterly doomed, and likely take its signatories to the bottom with it.
[insert picture of the titanic]
There is a difference between being part of Nato to contain Putin and doing trade deals and joining the Euro so Frankfurt and Berlin decide your economic policy as Greece discovered0 -
Starmer should say he reserves the right to put it to the people to rejoin at the first opportunity
It's important that he can batter Johnson with it for the next four years. The Red bus should be to Johnson what the poll tax was to Maggie.
0 -
Oh please. 🙏🏻Roger said:Starmer should say he reserves the right to put it to the people to rejoin at the first opportunity
It's important that he can batter Johnson with it for the next four years. The Red bus should be to Johnson what the poll tax was to Maggie.
That would be a real gift to Johnson if he did that!2 -
More detail on the Sausage War:
https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/1123/1180052-connelly-brexit-latest/
One official familiar with the issue said: "It’s becoming clearer that this would be a two-way thing.
"If the ban [on such foods entering Northern Ireland] is a consequence of EU law, and the Brits are going to say, we're going to apply the same rules in the opposite direction - which people would say was reasonable.0 -
Cameron would have just won his third term. His first majority.isam said:How would the 2015 Election have gone if Cameron had not offered a referendum?
2 -
I might buy the FT tomorrow purely to cut out that article and frame itFrancisUrquhart said:I see the FT is reporting that Britain's don't understand (economic) statistics....well if the British media reporting of COVID stats are anything to go by, not really surprising.
0 -
As far as hospitality is concerned this is far worse than the first lockdown in March. Then such businesses got a grant to help tide them over. This time nothing. No chance of earning an income while they still have costs and there have been precious few profits from the summer to help tide them over.Anabobazina said:This Christmas gimmick is insane. Many areas will have to endure weeks in Tier 3 just to “pay for” this nonsense over Christmas. FFS.
All very well Sunak spending money to help the unemployed. But he’s part of a government whose policy on lockdown with inadequate support will inevitably increase unemployment and that’s before we get to whatever shocks Brexit causes.
And the knock on effects in areas where tourism, leisure and hospitality are a large part of the economy will be grim.
I see no reason to be optimistic about the economy at all.0 -
Considering he made clear he wouldn't seek a third term I'm curious how that would have gone?Mexicanpete said:
Cameron would have just won his third term. His first majority.isam said:How would the 2015 Election have gone if Cameron had not offered a referendum?
0
