And the sodding BBC - "cases down significantly today on yesterday..."
Why do PBers never bitch about other broadcasting news organisations?
Because money. If you don't like ITV you can turn off and know you aren't contributing to their coffers. Same with Sky. With the BBC it's... more complicated.
Good news in that 2nd graph is that the previously high Wales R is down to 0.75 and trending rapidly downward. Northern Ireland is also stable at below 1, as is the NW (early into Tier 3 for most of the region). These are the parts of the UK that were earliest in adopting more severe lockdown restrictions, before the current 4 week lockdown in England came into effect. It suggests that allowing for time lags those measures had already been starting to turn the corner.
Have we covered this? It's very relevant to the Georgia run-off. Basically it looks at though those who thought that the BLM riots and 'defund the police' would have a bad effect on the Dem vote were right:
The question is: have they got time to reverse that for the Georgia run-off?
Did you see the focus group material I posted a couple of days agao. It was a group of Trump voting Swing voters - who had been thinking of voting Dem at the start of the year but voted TRump on the day.
They HATED Defund the Police. Yet 70% of the group agreed with all the goals. But they didn't believe the goals of defund the police were the goals because the slogan was "Defund The Police" not "Targeted Reform of Police and Social Service Spending". They literally told the leader of the focus group to stop telling them words mean something different than what they are.
It has to go down as one of the worst political slogans of all time. They have an insanely popular policy that has majority support that people voted against in their droves because of bad marketing.
» show previous quotes Good old Borders and Shetland. Looks shaky even there though.
and another one comes out Europe Elects @EuropeElects · 43m UK (Scotland), YouGov poll:
Should Scotland be an independent country?
Yes: 56% (+1) No: 44% (-1)
+/- vs. 12-18 August 2020
Fieldwork: 5-11 November 2020 Sample size: 1,020
Seems to be heading towards 60%.
Scotland's qualification for Euro 2021 will massively help Sturgeon I think.
Never thought of that. It's been so long! Mind, it's what happens when they lose ...
If, surely?
Just the traditional Calvinist pessimism about this vale of tears, the home of Original Sin, seeped into Scxottish culture like rain on a Glaswegian tenement gable wall of old.
The Scots footie supporters' attitude, over the last three decades or so, has been to be pleasantly surprised if their team win any games at all, and - whatever happens - to get meanwhile happily pished with the locals.
Have faith Carnyx , we are on the up, living the dream.
Good news in that 2nd graph is that the previously high Wales R is down to 0.75 and trending rapidly downward. Northern Ireland is also stable at below 1, as is the NW (early into Tier 3 for most of the region). These are the parts of the UK that were earliest in adopting more severe lockdown restrictions, before the current 4 week lockdown in England came into effect. It suggests that allowing for time lags those measures had already been starting to turn the corner.
Welsh specimen day data runs about a week behind England, Scotland and NI so those R figures are higher in reality.
And the sodding BBC - "cases down significantly today on yesterday..."
Why do PBers never bitch about other broadcasting news organisations?
Because I’m forced to pay for the bbc, but choose to pay for other outlets. Because they are the epitome of the smug arty, don’t understand science types.
Breaking: the Italian government exempts Father Xmas (Babbo Natale) from all social distancing restrictions. But will Bozo the clown do the same, for us?
The States of Guernsey designated him as an "Essential Worker" a couple of weeks ago - with the request that as well as Sherry & Biscuits, hand sanitiser is left out....
Have we covered this? It's very relevant to the Georgia run-off. Basically it looks at though those who thought that the BLM riots and 'defund the police' would have a bad effect on the Dem vote were right:
The question is: have they got time to reverse that for the Georgia run-off?
Did you see the focus group material I posted a couple of days agao. It was a group of Trump voting Swing voters - who had been thinking of voting Dem at the start of the year but voted TRump on the day.
They HATED Defund the Police. Yet 70% of the group agreed with all the goals. But they didn't believe the goals of defund the police were the goals because the slogan was "Defund The Police" not "Targeted Reform of Police and Social Service Spending". They literally told the leader of the focus group to stop telling them words mean something different than what they are.
It has to go down as one of the worst political slogans of all time. They have an insanely popular policy that has majority support that people voted against in their droves because of bad marketing.
Democrats need to stop treating the police as the enemy. "Hey, we want you guys to get on with actual policing instead of acting as social and mental health workers" I wonder if Biden might make a point of this in a big speech. One thing removing Trump does do is take some of the heat out of the situation, and it's probably the best reason I could see to vote for Biden. Trump actively inflamed the riots for his re-election, a disgraceful tactic that seems to have perhaps saved him from a bigger shellacking than he would otherwise have had.
Not exactly good though. Are we not 2 weeks into this misery? If so we should start to see a drop in the number of new cases from here on. It seems to me that we are, at best, hitting some sort of plateau.
Thought it was 9 days...
Seems way longer. Certainly is in north England.
The patterns of growth in N England seem very broadly in line with whether and how long areas have been in the higher tiers of restrictions prior to lockdown 2.0:
Merseyside - falling quickly Lancashire, Notts (OK, Midlands) - falling somewhat GM, SY - falling slightly / at worst level WY - still rising slowly NE - rising more Humber, Derbyshire - rising rapidly
It's only 11 months since the GE, and it looks like there's a bit of chaos at the heart of government - it usually takes longer than that. Still, permanent revolution can be a good thing, I'm told. I'm struggling, though, to identify any real achievements since GE 2019. Brexit not really done yet - the microwave hasn't been working for the oven-ready deal. The Garden of England turned into a lorry park, Probably a lot more dead than there should have been. The Civil Service totally pissed off but not actually reformed. I don't think Dom's CV update will look that good.
But.... 2020 is now looking a whole lot better than it did a fortnight ago.
The thing about EU politicians and bureaucrats is that reading the UK press and media commentary they think that tells them how to interpret the politics here. What they lack is reliable gut feeling for the issues. They think Biden coming and Cummings going presage a softening of red lines and a weakening of resolve. They could well be miscalculating again.
The thing about EU politicians and bureaucrats is that reading the UK press and media commentary they think that tells them how to interpret the politics here. What they lack is reliable gut feeling for the politics here. They think Biden coming and Cummings going presage a softening of red lines and a weakening of resolve. They could well be miscalculating again.
What do you mean 'again'? Johnson capitulated last time.
It's only 11 months since the GE, and it looks like there's a bit of chaos at the heart of government - it usually takes longer than that. Still, permanent revolution can be a good thing, I'm told. I'm struggling, though, to identify any real achievements since GE 2019. Brexit not really done yet - the microwave hasn't been working for the oven-ready deal. The Garden of England turned into a lorry park, Probably a lot more dead than there should have been. The Civil Service totally pissed off but not actually reformed. I don't think Dom's CV update will look that good.
But.... 2020 is now looking a whole lot better than it did a fortnight ago.
In the Garden of England honey Don't you know that I love to queue In the Garden of England baby Don't you know that my passport is blue?
The thing about EU politicians and bureaucrats is that reading the UK press and media commentary they think that tells them how to interpret the politics here. What they lack is reliable gut feeling for the politics here. They think Biden coming and Cummings going presage a softening of red lines and a weakening of resolve. They could well be miscalculating again.
What do you mean 'again'? Johnson capitulated last time.
There's a long history of such miscalculation in negotiations going back at least to Cameron and then May, including Selmayr's malign involvement. Look at Lambert's and Verhofstadt's various commentaries throughout and today.
And the sodding BBC - "cases down significantly today on yesterday..."
Why do PBers never bitch about other broadcasting news organisations?
Maybe because no one is forced by law to pay for other broadcast news organisations. I am sure if you were forced to pay a subscription to the morning star before reading other newspapers you would tend to be more strident about the morning star than other papers
Comments
Same with Sky.
With the BBC it's... more complicated.
There HAS been some good news this year.
They HATED Defund the Police. Yet 70% of the group agreed with all the goals. But they didn't believe the goals of defund the police were the goals because the slogan was "Defund The Police" not "Targeted Reform of Police and Social Service Spending". They literally told the leader of the focus group to stop telling them words mean something different than what they are.
It has to go down as one of the worst political slogans of all time. They have an insanely popular policy that has majority support that people voted against in their droves because of bad marketing.
https://www.newsweek.com/arizona-election-witness-confesses-being-trump-campaign-lawyers-business-partner-court-1547233
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1327299425304268806
"Hey, we want you guys to get on with actual policing instead of acting as social and mental health workers"
I wonder if Biden might make a point of this in a big speech. One thing removing Trump does do is take some of the heat out of the situation, and it's probably the best reason I could see to vote for Biden. Trump actively inflamed the riots for his re-election, a disgraceful tactic that seems to have perhaps saved him from a bigger shellacking than he would otherwise have had.
Merseyside - falling quickly
Lancashire, Notts (OK, Midlands) - falling somewhat
GM, SY - falling slightly / at worst level
WY - still rising slowly
NE - rising more
Humber, Derbyshire - rising rapidly
Just look at the hours Ed Llewellyn, for example, put in.
https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1327302923018268672
NEW THREAD
Boris Johnson’s adviser Dominic Cummings has left Number 10 with immediate effect, according to reports
But.... 2020 is now looking a whole lot better than it did a fortnight ago.
https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1327306263185797120?s=20
Don't you know that I love to queue
In the Garden of England baby
Don't you know that my passport is blue?
(20 minute solo)
(drummer resigns)