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Enemies within? – politicalbetting.com

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  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,540

    nichomar said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BoZo is about to announce a 3 tier system with 7 tiers...

    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1315534464605458437

    Screwed befor they start, by confusion and uncertainty.
    I've got Nick Ferrari on - he's a Tory and continues to be absolutely scathing about the abject chaos and confusion coming from the government. He points out that parts of the North East are about to be issued their 3rd set of rules in 10 days.

    With respect to Liverpool negotiating over restaurants etc staying open - there can't be local opt-outs from a national plan. Either the national plan gets given more steps (I know know, how about 5 tiers...) or the tiers are changed nationally.

    And before we have the usual people on here trying to say its all completely easy to understand, Ferrari has had a former Chief Constable on who says he hasn't got a clue and its completely unenforceable.
    Let’s hope Peston is right and most of it will be just guidelines, then.

    What time are we expecting the clown to address the nation?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,069
    Light morning reader for those who read opinion polls.

    https://twitter.com/BritPollingCncl/status/1315542977922596864

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,498
    IanB2 said:

    What time are we expecting the clown to address the nation?

    https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1315544208288165889
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,540
    Scott_xP said:

    BoZo is about to announce a 3 tier system with 7 tiers...

    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1315534464605458437

    “under the government’s new simplified traffic light system, your region is starting off on purple....”
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,280
    O tempora, o mores.

    And there is nothing new under the sun.

    My Dean of Faculty wrote to the Home Secretary on behalf of the Scottish bar. It really was a load of nonsense.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 34,043
    Third antibody drug (this one Korean) to go into late stage trials:
    http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/13810609
  • DavidL said:

    O tempora, o mores.

    And there is nothing new under the sun.

    My Dean of Faculty wrote to the Home Secretary on behalf of the Scottish bar. It really was a load of nonsense.

    What he wrote, or that he had to write to her and explain the law?
  • Great post. Something poisonous seems to have infected this government, a kind of unfettered lust for raw power that can brook no compromise or checks and balances. It really scares me.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 3,835

    LadyG said:

    isam said:
    This very much suggests we are shutting down entire regions, and ruining their economies, to defend the health of kids who will never get sick
    No it does not. That is a significant rise in the orange graph and the escalating case numbers in hospital are not kids.

    If the orange graph was a flat line you'd be right. It isn't.
    And it would also need for students to be all-but-immune to the virus, as well.

    People have segued straight from “less likely to get so ill they’d need hospital treatment and far more likely to recover if they do, but can end up with long-term issues” to “it does nothing to them.”

    Is it a case of really wanting that to be true? Because I can fully understand that - my second daughter is a first year student right now. But wanting it to be true doesn’t change that most students who catch it get ill and some less lucky ones will end up in hospital, and quite a few will have issues lasting a long time.

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,498

    Great post. Something poisonous seems to have infected this government, a kind of unfettered lust for raw power that can brook no compromise or checks and balances. It really scares me.

    https://twitter.com/ottocrat/status/1315535060678905857
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,592

    LadyG said:

    isam said:
    This very much suggests we are shutting down entire regions, and ruining their economies, to defend the health of kids who will never get sick
    No it does not. That is a significant rise in the orange graph and the escalating case numbers in hospital are not kids.

    If the orange graph was a flat line you'd be right. It isn't.
    And it would also need for students to be all-but-immune to the virus, as well.

    People have segued straight from “less likely to get so ill they’d need hospital treatment and far more likely to recover if they do, but can end up with long-term issues” to “it does nothing to them.”

    Is it a case of really wanting that to be true? Because I can fully understand that - my second daughter is a first year student right now. But wanting it to be true doesn’t change that most students who catch it get ill and some less lucky ones will end up in hospital, and quite a few will have issues lasting a long time.

    Looking at the regional admissions figures, it does look as if it breaks through to an older population in time, following on from the students.


  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,540
    Foxy said:

    LadyG said:

    isam said:
    This very much suggests we are shutting down entire regions, and ruining their economies, to defend the health of kids who will never get sick
    No it does not. That is a significant rise in the orange graph and the escalating case numbers in hospital are not kids.

    If the orange graph was a flat line you'd be right. It isn't.
    And it would also need for students to be all-but-immune to the virus, as well.

    People have segued straight from “less likely to get so ill they’d need hospital treatment and far more likely to recover if they do, but can end up with long-term issues” to “it does nothing to them.”

    Is it a case of really wanting that to be true? Because I can fully understand that - my second daughter is a first year student right now. But wanting it to be true doesn’t change that most students who catch it get ill and some less lucky ones will end up in hospital, and quite a few will have issues lasting a long time.

    Looking at the regional admissions figures, it does look as if it breaks through to an older population in time, following on from the students.


    Why do we think there was no stand out epidemic amongst students first time around?
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 3,835
    Foxy said:

    LadyG said:

    isam said:
    This very much suggests we are shutting down entire regions, and ruining their economies, to defend the health of kids who will never get sick
    No it does not. That is a significant rise in the orange graph and the escalating case numbers in hospital are not kids.

    If the orange graph was a flat line you'd be right. It isn't.
    And it would also need for students to be all-but-immune to the virus, as well.

    People have segued straight from “less likely to get so ill they’d need hospital treatment and far more likely to recover if they do, but can end up with long-term issues” to “it does nothing to them.”

    Is it a case of really wanting that to be true? Because I can fully understand that - my second daughter is a first year student right now. But wanting it to be true doesn’t change that most students who catch it get ill and some less lucky ones will end up in hospital, and quite a few will have issues lasting a long time.

    Looking at the regional admissions figures, it does look as if it breaks through to an older population in time, following on from the students.


    And if it didn’t affect the young and they didn’t pass it on, anyway, we wouldn’t be seeing the hospitalisation rates soaring and coming close to overload in some reasons.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 7,914
    Scott_xP said:

    Great post. Something poisonous seems to have infected this government, a kind of unfettered lust for raw power that can brook no compromise or checks and balances. It really scares me.

    https://twitter.com/ottocrat/status/1315535060678905857
    Statchoos are important to the type of person that drives a P reg Rover 100 with an odd coloured door. ie the new core tory vote.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,498
    IanB2 said:

    “under the government’s new simplified traffic light system, your region is starting off on purple....”

    "It's like a tier system"

    "A tier system? Tell you what, here's mine. If I don't get what I want, there'll be fucking tears..."

    The Hollowmen, Episode 102, The Amabassador
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,498
    Dura_Ace said:

    Statchoos are important to the type of person that drives a P reg Rover 100 with an odd coloured door. ie the new core tory vote.

    That may be, but how can they be sure that Jenrick will only approve the "right" ones?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 12,733
    Yokes said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Yokes said:

    On topic

    1. There is a difference between asylum seekers and economic migrants.

    2. Secondly Douglas Hoggs comments about Pat Finucane did not lead to his death nor was it of any consequence. Pat Finuance was long on Loyalist hit lists before anyone this side of the water knew who Douglas Hogg was nor cared for what he said. Even the dogs on the street knew he was a target long before he was killed.

    Did our own Prime Minister not apologise for state collusion with those murderous dogs ?
    That collusion went on was fact, the complexity of it is shocking yet not surprising. That the comments of Douglas Hogg were the trigger (i.e. led) to the killing of Pat Finuance is fantasy land.
    https://www.thejournal.ie/pat-finucane-douglas-hogg-state-papers-4942170-Dec2019/
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,770
    Dura_Ace said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Great post. Something poisonous seems to have infected this government, a kind of unfettered lust for raw power that can brook no compromise or checks and balances. It really scares me.

    https://twitter.com/ottocrat/status/1315535060678905857
    Statchoos are important to the type of person that drives a P reg Rover 100 with an odd coloured door. ie the new core tory vote.
    Down with all reminders of racial oppression and the use of slave labour! Away with them forever!

    Signed

    A Porsche driver
  • Sky have just said Liverpool has the highest infection rate in Europe
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,594
    Scott_xP said:

    IanB2 said:

    What time are we expecting the clown to address the nation?

    https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1315544208288165889
    The beginning of the end of Johnson's premiership tonight then.

  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,770
    Scott_xP said:

    IanB2 said:

    “under the government’s new simplified traffic light system, your region is starting off on purple....”

    "It's like a tier system"

    "A tier system? Tell you what, here's mine. If I don't get what I want, there'll be fucking tears..."

    The Hollowmen, Episode 102, The Amabassador
    Tiers, idle tiers, I know not what they mean...
  • Scott_xP said:

    IanB2 said:

    What time are we expecting the clown to address the nation?

    https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1315544208288165889
    The beginning of the end of Johnson's premiership tonight then.

    How many times has that been said so far?
  • Scott_xP said:

    IanB2 said:

    What time are we expecting the clown to address the nation?

    https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1315544208288165889
    The beginning of the end of Johnson's premiership tonight then.

    You have been saying that for a while now

    However, tighter regulations has the support of 73% and we cannot know how this crisis is going to play out

    You may be right but with an 80 seat majority it will only happen if his backbenchers decide time is up
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,594
    Scott_xP said:
    So, in summary, this government has completely and utterly failed in its handling of the virus and despite six months of preparation, learning and planning we are back to where we were in March.

    Beyond shameful.

    This is the worst period of public policy since pre-war appeasement.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,498

    This is the worst period of public policy since pre-war appeasement.

    And Brexit still to come...
  • Scott_xP said:
    So, in summary, this government has completely and utterly failed in its handling of the virus and despite six months of preparation, learning and planning we are back to where we were in March.

    Beyond shameful.

    This is the worst period of public policy since pre-war appeasement.
    And so do you give Sturgeon, Drakeford and Foster a free pass or will you condemn them as well
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 7,914
    Scott_xP said:


    And Brexit still to come...

    There's still a chance Brexit could turn out to be brilliant.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,883
    I'm surprised York is not higher on the infections list considering it is quite a small city but has two universities combined with a cramped city centre.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,005
    Dura_Ace said:

    Scott_xP said:


    And Brexit still to come...

    There's still a chance Brexit could turn out to be brilliant.
    Fat?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 12,733
    Dura_Ace said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Great post. Something poisonous seems to have infected this government, a kind of unfettered lust for raw power that can brook no compromise or checks and balances. It really scares me.

    https://twitter.com/ottocrat/status/1315535060678905857
    Statchoos are important to the type of person that drives a P reg Rover 100 with an odd coloured door. ie the new core tory vote.
    Statues on the other hand are important to the driver of the pristine Rover 75 wearing a hat.

    What is it with Rover drivers?
  • Scott_xP said:

    This is the worst period of public policy since pre-war appeasement.

    And Brexit still to come...
    Yesteday's poll gave those expecting brexit to be good for the country in the longer term a majority
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,280

    DavidL said:

    O tempora, o mores.

    And there is nothing new under the sun.

    My Dean of Faculty wrote to the Home Secretary on behalf of the Scottish bar. It really was a load of nonsense.

    What he wrote, or that he had to write to her and explain the law?
    What he wrote.

    He started off with some nonsense about the cab rank rule which supposedly says that counsel have to take instructions that are given to them in order and cannot select their clients. This is, of course, nonsense. It has not applied to legal aid work for over a decade because the view was taken by the then Dean (entirely correctly) that Legal Aid does not amount to a proper fee for the work.

    This was the premise from which he then sought to argue that a specialist bar dealing with immigration, human rights arguments and asylum doesn't exist. Of course it does. This is a highly technical and specialised area of the law. I wouldn't touch it with a barge poll, not because I have some moral objection but because I do not have the relevant knowledge and experience.

    There was then some whinging about abusing lawyers. Frankly we have broader shoulders than that.

    Do I like the Home Secretary and the PM having a go at lawyers? Not really. But I have a million more important things to worry about.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,883

    Scott_xP said:

    This is the worst period of public policy since pre-war appeasement.

    And Brexit still to come...
    Yesteday's poll gave those expecting brexit to be good for the country in the longer term a majority
    It doesn't matter what people "expect". What matters is what actually happens.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 12,733

    Sky have just said Liverpool has the highest infection rate in Europe

    Champions of Europe!
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 5,650

    Scott_xP said:

    IanB2 said:

    What time are we expecting the clown to address the nation?

    https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1315544208288165889
    The beginning of the end of Johnson's premiership tonight then.

    How many times has that been said so far?
    It's a truism.

  • Scott_xP said:

    This is the worst period of public policy since pre-war appeasement.

    And Brexit still to come...
    Yesteday's poll gave those expecting brexit to be good for the country in the longer term a majority
    It doesn't matter what people "expect". What matters is what actually happens.
    Indeed. So when Brexit is good for the country in the longer term then people will be satisfied.

    Except of course for those who are never satisfied.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 12,733

    Scott_xP said:

    IanB2 said:

    What time are we expecting the clown to address the nation?

    https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1315544208288165889
    The beginning of the end of Johnson's premiership tonight then.

    You have been saying that for a while now

    However, tighter regulations has the support of 73% and we cannot know how this crisis is going to play out

    You may be right but with an 80 seat majority it will only happen if his backbenchers decide time is up
    So you're a Johnson fan again?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,594
    It’s time for the Government to start asking the right questions; framing things in the light of accumulating evidence, not unexamined preconceptions. On that basis, the course we should be taking is clear: asymptomatic spread is good . Advise and help the very elderly and those with serious illnesses to shield if they wish – but do not compel them, it’s their life, after all. And let everyone else get completely back to normal.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/12/not-cases-covid-created-equal/
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,540

    Scott_xP said:

    IanB2 said:

    What time are we expecting the clown to address the nation?

    https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1315544208288165889
    The beginning of the end of Johnson's premiership tonight then.

    That was the day he took the job to which he was so obviously unsuited.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,594
    IanB2 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    IanB2 said:

    What time are we expecting the clown to address the nation?

    https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1315544208288165889
    The beginning of the end of Johnson's premiership tonight then.

    That was the day he took the job to which he was so obviously unsuited.
    True. But the people who count hadn't realised that then.
  • Scott_xP said:

    This is the worst period of public policy since pre-war appeasement.

    And Brexit still to come...
    Yesteday's poll gave those expecting brexit to be good for the country in the longer term a majority
    It doesn't matter what people "expect". What matters is what actually happens.
    The point is that for the first time people expecting brexit to be good for the country was a majority

    That in itself is significant
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,883

    Scott_xP said:

    This is the worst period of public policy since pre-war appeasement.

    And Brexit still to come...
    Yesteday's poll gave those expecting brexit to be good for the country in the longer term a majority
    It doesn't matter what people "expect". What matters is what actually happens.
    Indeed. So when Brexit is good for the country in the longer term then people will be satisfied.

    Except of course for those who are never satisfied.
    Of course. Alternatively Brexit may turn out to be a disaster, in which case the majority of people may not be satisfied.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,883

    Scott_xP said:

    This is the worst period of public policy since pre-war appeasement.

    And Brexit still to come...
    Yesteday's poll gave those expecting brexit to be good for the country in the longer term a majority
    It doesn't matter what people "expect". What matters is what actually happens.
    The point is that for the first time people expecting brexit to be good for the country was a majority

    That in itself is significant
    Why is that significant?
  • Scott_xP said:

    IanB2 said:

    What time are we expecting the clown to address the nation?

    https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1315544208288165889
    The beginning of the end of Johnson's premiership tonight then.

    You have been saying that for a while now

    However, tighter regulations has the support of 73% and we cannot know how this crisis is going to play out

    You may be right but with an 80 seat majority it will only happen if his backbenchers decide time is up
    So you're a Johnson fan again?
    No - I am saying it as it is

  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 4,372
    Thank you Cyclefree. What an excellent article.

    The attack on lawyers, growing in volume, is in part desperation as well as ignorance. Even most MPs, dim though some are, realise that the legal system as a whole puts into effect what parliament has sanctioned, provided for or compelled. Attacks on 'activist' lawyers are of course attacks on the rule of law, parliamentary democracy and the judiciary. The PM and Home Secretary joining in is a sign of desperation about their own competence and ability to cope.

    As to the poor old voter, I can't be the only moderate liberal minded centrist who usually votes Tory because all the alternatives are worse who is hoping that SKS can quietly purge his abysmal party and offer us something which would be recognisable to Roy Jenkins and Lord Clarke as a government.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 34,484

    Private polling found that many people were unable to recall the lengthier meaning of the Scottish government’s acronym, which has dominated public health messaging north of the border until now, and that the UK slogan was easier to follow.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/uk-to-extend-health-campaign-as-snp-s-facts-slogan-leads-to-covid-confusion-lgg8qczdt

    Tories getting really really desperate, Bozo really annoyed that his bumbling useless bunch are been eclipsed. Wonder how much that "private" polling cost them. They never post their "private" independence polling, wonder why.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 16,769
    Big G is to neutral objectivity, what Donald Trump is to quiet, dignified leadership.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 34,484

    So? The SNP are as arrogant as the Tories - we won a big majority, we alone represent the best interests of our country, so we can do what we like.
    Who in the SNP wrote her apology, told her to say she’d referred herself to the police when she hadn’t and then hung her out to dry when the public reaction was negative?
    Cummings most likely.
  • Scott_xP said:

    This is the worst period of public policy since pre-war appeasement.

    And Brexit still to come...
    Yesteday's poll gave those expecting brexit to be good for the country in the longer term a majority
    It doesn't matter what people "expect". What matters is what actually happens.
    The point is that for the first time people expecting brexit to be good for the country was a majority

    That in itself is significant
    Why is that significant?
    The significance is it is the first time a poll has recorded a majority expecting brexit to be good for the country
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 34,043
    Scott_xP said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Statchoos are important to the type of person that drives a P reg Rover 100 with an odd coloured door. ie the new core tory vote.

    That may be, but how can they be sure that Jenrick will only approve the "right" ones?
    He's apparently influenceable ...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,594

    Scott_xP said:

    IanB2 said:

    What time are we expecting the clown to address the nation?

    https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1315544208288165889
    The beginning of the end of Johnson's premiership tonight then.

    You have been saying that for a while now

    However, tighter regulations has the support of 73% and we cannot know how this crisis is going to play out

    You may be right but with an 80 seat majority it will only happen if his backbenchers decide time is up
    So you're a Johnson fan again?
    It wont be 73% in two months time. Plus I think whoever posted that 'people agree everyone else should be obeying rules locking down, but secretly their own family has this and that exception and reason and circumstance' had a point. Not everyone of course.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 4,372

    Scott_xP said:

    This is the worst period of public policy since pre-war appeasement.

    And Brexit still to come...
    Yesteday's poll gave those expecting brexit to be good for the country in the longer term a majority
    It doesn't matter what people "expect". What matters is what actually happens.
    Gallowgate is right of course, but if you only talk about what has happened and avoid all expectations you close down almost the entire media, the gambling industry and, worst of all, PB.

    It is curious but true that once something has happened interest disappears quite quickly.

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 34,484

    So? The SNP are as arrogant as the Tories - we won a big majority, we alone represent the best interests of our country, so we can do what we like.
    For sure , megalomania has corrupted those at the top and they think they can get away with anything. Time for a clear out of the cabal at the top lining their own nests .
  • Jonathan said:

    Big G is to neutral objectivity, what Donald Trump is to quiet, dignified leadership.

    I am not neutral.

    I am a conservative member and support the conservative government
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 12,733
    Scott_xP said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Statchoos are important to the type of person that drives a P reg Rover 100 with an odd coloured door. ie the new core tory vote.

    That may be, but how can they be sure that Jenrick will only approve the "right" ones?
    A think a strict price list, payable without discount by the interested parties needs to be put together.

    The price list is important, as the last time Jenrick was let loose on pricing duties he winged it, and charged only £10,000 for advice and assistance that saved Richard Desmond from a £50m tax bill.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,540
    Jonathan said:

    Big G is to neutral objectivity, what Donald Trump is to quiet, dignified leadership.

    Trump is a lot more consistent, to be fair.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,540
    edited October 2020

    It’s time for the Government to start asking the right questions; framing things in the light of accumulating evidence, not unexamined preconceptions. On that basis, the course we should be taking is clear: asymptomatic spread is good . Advise and help the very elderly and those with serious illnesses to shield if they wish – but do not compel them, it’s their life, after all. And let everyone else get completely back to normal.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/12/not-cases-covid-created-equal/

    Nearly a quarter of a million UK people were infected in the last week.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,883

    Scott_xP said:

    This is the worst period of public policy since pre-war appeasement.

    And Brexit still to come...
    Yesteday's poll gave those expecting brexit to be good for the country in the longer term a majority
    It doesn't matter what people "expect". What matters is what actually happens.
    The point is that for the first time people expecting brexit to be good for the country was a majority

    That in itself is significant
    Why is that significant?
    The significance is it is the first time a poll has recorded a majority expecting brexit to be good for the country
    But why is that in itself significant? It makes no difference to reality.

    The majority would not have expected mask wearing to become almost universal in public in the UK in 2020, but it did.
  • Scott_xP said:

    This is the worst period of public policy since pre-war appeasement.

    And Brexit still to come...
    Yesteday's poll gave those expecting brexit to be good for the country in the longer term a majority
    It doesn't matter what people "expect". What matters is what actually happens.
    The point is that for the first time people expecting brexit to be good for the country was a majority

    That in itself is significant
    Why is that significant?
    The significance is it is the first time a poll has recorded a majority expecting brexit to be good for the country
    But why is that in itself significant? It makes no difference to reality.

    The majority would not have expected mask wearing to become almost universal in public in the UK in 2020, but it did.
    OK
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 6,910

    Scott_xP said:

    This is the worst period of public policy since pre-war appeasement.

    And Brexit still to come...
    Yesteday's poll gave those expecting brexit to be good for the country in the longer term a majority
    It doesn't matter what people "expect". What matters is what actually happens.
    The point is that for the first time people expecting brexit to be good for the country was a majority

    That in itself is significant
    To what do you attribute this damascene conversion on behalf of the country*? Can you name one single thing about the progress of Brexit through the transition period which could have led to a tipping point in the change of national opinion? Or is it just the accumulation of good news about our state of preparedness, the clarity of the regime that will apply post Brexit, the abundance of trade deals just waiting to be signed...?

    *Wasn't it a plurality not a majority?

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,280

    It’s time for the Government to start asking the right questions; framing things in the light of accumulating evidence, not unexamined preconceptions. On that basis, the course we should be taking is clear: asymptomatic spread is good . Advise and help the very elderly and those with serious illnesses to shield if they wish – but do not compel them, it’s their life, after all. And let everyone else get completely back to normal.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/12/not-cases-covid-created-equal/

    I have a lot of sympathy for that view.

    The other side of the coin is that the reckless behaviour of some is adding to the spread of a deeply unpleasant and potentially lethal virus. How do you weigh the right to go for a drink or a meal out or a student party against the rights of those living in genuine fear of this, for whom every trip out is more dangerous because people are not being responsible? They have rights too and I don't think that this is just a matter for guidance.

    What is undoubtedly frustrating is the quality of the statistics and the lack of data about what works and what doesn't. I think by now we should be able to categorise risk and focus on where and how people are actually catching it. I suspect that much of the precautions and limitations imposed do very little good and some risks are being underestimated but this is just gut feel based on what we know about super spreader incidents. I don't want no regulation but I definitely want smarter regulation. Hitting everything with a mallet is not the answer.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,594
    DavidL said:

    It’s time for the Government to start asking the right questions; framing things in the light of accumulating evidence, not unexamined preconceptions. On that basis, the course we should be taking is clear: asymptomatic spread is good . Advise and help the very elderly and those with serious illnesses to shield if they wish – but do not compel them, it’s their life, after all. And let everyone else get completely back to normal.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/12/not-cases-covid-created-equal/

    I have a lot of sympathy for that view.

    The other side of the coin is that the reckless behaviour of some is adding to the spread of a deeply unpleasant and potentially lethal virus. How do you weigh the right to go for a drink or a meal out or a student party against the rights of those living in genuine fear of this, for whom every trip out is more dangerous because people are not being responsible? They have rights too and I don't think that this is just a matter for guidance.

    What is undoubtedly frustrating is the quality of the statistics and the lack of data about what works and what doesn't. I think by now we should be able to categorise risk and focus on where and how people are actually catching it. I suspect that much of the precautions and limitations imposed do very little good and some risks are being underestimated but this is just gut feel based on what we know about super spreader incidents. I don't want no regulation but I definitely want smarter regulation. Hitting everything with a mallet is not the answer.
    "smarter regulation" - yes, I agree. Perhaps we look at somewhere that was doing that. Maybe try Sweden, off the top of my head.
  • alex_ said:

    Scott_xP said:

    This is the worst period of public policy since pre-war appeasement.

    And Brexit still to come...
    Yesteday's poll gave those expecting brexit to be good for the country in the longer term a majority
    It doesn't matter what people "expect". What matters is what actually happens.
    The point is that for the first time people expecting brexit to be good for the country was a majority

    That in itself is significant
    To what do you attribute this damascene conversion on behalf of the country*? Can you name one single thing about the progress of Brexit through the transition period which could have led to a tipping point in the change of national opinion? Or is it just the accumulation of good news about our state of preparedness, the clarity of the regime that will apply post Brexit, the abundance of trade deals just waiting to be signed...?

    *Wasn't it a plurality not a majority?

    I do not know why public opinion may have changed but this weekend's poll indicated it has though it is only one poll
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 16,769

    Jonathan said:

    Big G is to neutral objectivity, what Donald Trump is to quiet, dignified leadership.

    I am not neutral.

    I am a conservative member and support the conservative government
    Firmly in the spin zone.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,770

    It’s time for the Government to start asking the right questions; framing things in the light of accumulating evidence, not unexamined preconceptions. On that basis, the course we should be taking is clear: asymptomatic spread is good . Advise and help the very elderly and those with serious illnesses to shield if they wish – but do not compel them, it’s their life, after all. And let everyone else get completely back to normal.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/12/not-cases-covid-created-equal/

    "asymptomatic spread is good." So is smoking without getting lung cancer. The issue is achievability.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 34,043

    Scott_xP said:

    This is the worst period of public policy since pre-war appeasement.

    And Brexit still to come...
    Yesteday's poll gave those expecting brexit to be good for the country in the longer term a majority
    Was it not a plurality rather than a majority ?

    Meanwhile, 60% think the government is handling Brexit badly.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 4,372

    Scott_xP said:

    This is the worst period of public policy since pre-war appeasement.

    And Brexit still to come...
    Yesteday's poll gave those expecting brexit to be good for the country in the longer term a majority
    It doesn't matter what people "expect". What matters is what actually happens.
    The point is that for the first time people expecting brexit to be good for the country was a majority

    That in itself is significant
    Why is that significant?
    The significance is it is the first time a poll has recorded a majority expecting brexit to be good for the country
    But why is that in itself significant? It makes no difference to reality.

    The majority would not have expected mask wearing to become almost universal in public in the UK in 2020, but it did.
    No polls make a difference to reality. Tipsters don't make any difference to the outcome of a horse race. So what? That won't make any difference to how interesting people find them.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 25,225
    IshmaelZ said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Great post. Something poisonous seems to have infected this government, a kind of unfettered lust for raw power that can brook no compromise or checks and balances. It really scares me.

    https://twitter.com/ottocrat/status/1315535060678905857
    Statchoos are important to the type of person that drives a P reg Rover 100 with an odd coloured door. ie the new core tory vote.
    Down with all reminders of racial oppression and the use of slave labour! Away with them forever!

    Signed

    A Porsche driver
    Have you got your test result yet?

    My wife and I were talking about this a few days ago; so far as we know no-one in our families received reparations for freed slaves. However, we have no idea whether any of our ancestors were sailors on the ships which carried the poor souls across the Atlantic, and my wife's family, as cotton mill workers, undoubtedly benefited from being able to work with the cheap cotton the South produced, although some were probably among the Lancashire people who, at personal hardship, supported the Ant-Slavery side in the American Civil War.
    So it's complicated.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 34,484

    Jonathan said:

    Big G is to neutral objectivity, what Donald Trump is to quiet, dignified leadership.

    I am not neutral.

    I am a conservative member and support the conservative government
    No matter how useless and evil they are ? Tories are a cult.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,883

    Scott_xP said:

    This is the worst period of public policy since pre-war appeasement.

    And Brexit still to come...
    Yesteday's poll gave those expecting brexit to be good for the country in the longer term a majority
    It doesn't matter what people "expect". What matters is what actually happens.
    The point is that for the first time people expecting brexit to be good for the country was a majority

    That in itself is significant
    Why is that significant?
    The significance is it is the first time a poll has recorded a majority expecting brexit to be good for the country
    But why is that in itself significant? It makes no difference to reality.

    The majority would not have expected mask wearing to become almost universal in public in the UK in 2020, but it did.
    OK
    What? You did a @HYUFD and just dropped a statistic without any explanation of why or how it is relevant. I merely questioned that.

    Yes it's interesting that the public is now expecting "Brexit" to be a good thing but why is that? Could it be that for the most part people are under the impression that Brexit is done and dusted and because nothing has really changed those doom and gloom remoaners were obviously wrong?

    The real test will be after new year when things actually do change and Brexit starts being something tangible rather than the unicorn it *still* is.

    Note that I am making no comment about the merits or otherwise of Brexit. That is not what this is about.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 6,910

    DavidL said:

    It’s time for the Government to start asking the right questions; framing things in the light of accumulating evidence, not unexamined preconceptions. On that basis, the course we should be taking is clear: asymptomatic spread is good . Advise and help the very elderly and those with serious illnesses to shield if they wish – but do not compel them, it’s their life, after all. And let everyone else get completely back to normal.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/12/not-cases-covid-created-equal/

    I have a lot of sympathy for that view.

    The other side of the coin is that the reckless behaviour of some is adding to the spread of a deeply unpleasant and potentially lethal virus. How do you weigh the right to go for a drink or a meal out or a student party against the rights of those living in genuine fear of this, for whom every trip out is more dangerous because people are not being responsible? They have rights too and I don't think that this is just a matter for guidance.

    What is undoubtedly frustrating is the quality of the statistics and the lack of data about what works and what doesn't. I think by now we should be able to categorise risk and focus on where and how people are actually catching it. I suspect that much of the precautions and limitations imposed do very little good and some risks are being underestimated but this is just gut feel based on what we know about super spreader incidents. I don't want no regulation but I definitely want smarter regulation. Hitting everything with a mallet is not the answer.
    "smarter regulation" - yes, I agree. Perhaps we look at somewhere that was doing that. Maybe try Sweden, off the top of my head.
    Or Japan.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 6,910
    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    This is the worst period of public policy since pre-war appeasement.

    And Brexit still to come...
    Yesteday's poll gave those expecting brexit to be good for the country in the longer term a majority
    Was it not a plurality rather than a majority ?

    Meanwhile, 60% think the government is handling Brexit badly.
    Maybe they think it will be good in the longer term because it will destroy the current Government?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,280
    malcolmg said:

    Jonathan said:

    Big G is to neutral objectivity, what Donald Trump is to quiet, dignified leadership.

    I am not neutral.

    I am a conservative member and support the conservative government
    No matter how useless and evil they are ? Tories are a cult.
    Oh the irony. SNP support is by far the most cultish support of any political party in the UK today. Willing to excuse anything for the cause of independence.
  • It used to be said that a good lawyer could argue either side of the case. The problem with activist lawyers is that they are only interested in one side. They are activists first and foremost, using the law a means to an end.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 34,043
    alex_ said:

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    This is the worst period of public policy since pre-war appeasement.

    And Brexit still to come...
    Yesteday's poll gave those expecting brexit to be good for the country in the longer term a majority
    Was it not a plurality rather than a majority ?

    Meanwhile, 60% think the government is handling Brexit badly.
    Maybe they think it will be good in the longer term because it will destroy the current Government?
    Or maybe ... anything (including rejoining).

    Just looked it up - it was 38% of those polled.
    Not exactly a stunning vote of confidence.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,883
    edited October 2020
    Nigelb said:

    alex_ said:

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    This is the worst period of public policy since pre-war appeasement.

    And Brexit still to come...
    Yesteday's poll gave those expecting brexit to be good for the country in the longer term a majority
    Was it not a plurality rather than a majority ?

    Meanwhile, 60% think the government is handling Brexit badly.
    Maybe they think it will be good in the longer term because it will destroy the current Government?
    Or maybe ... anything (including rejoining).

    Just looked it up - it was 38% of those polled.
    Not exactly a stunning vote of confidence.
    If someone asked me if Brexit would be good for the country int he longer term, I would answer "don't know" because how can anyone really know for sure? We don't even know the final form Brexit will take.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,481
    edited October 2020
    We still have asylum seekers being housed at a hotel just outside Epping despite Britain First
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 2,827
    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    LadyG said:

    isam said:
    This very much suggests we are shutting down entire regions, and ruining their economies, to defend the health of kids who will never get sick
    No it does not. That is a significant rise in the orange graph and the escalating case numbers in hospital are not kids.

    If the orange graph was a flat line you'd be right. It isn't.
    And it would also need for students to be all-but-immune to the virus, as well.

    People have segued straight from “less likely to get so ill they’d need hospital treatment and far more likely to recover if they do, but can end up with long-term issues” to “it does nothing to them.”

    Is it a case of really wanting that to be true? Because I can fully understand that - my second daughter is a first year student right now. But wanting it to be true doesn’t change that most students who catch it get ill and some less lucky ones will end up in hospital, and quite a few will have issues lasting a long time.

    Looking at the regional admissions figures, it does look as if it breaks through to an older population in time, following on from the students.


    Why do we think there was no stand out epidemic amongst students first time around?
    Foxy, to what extent might there be a link between hospitals with high rates of on site acquired infections and university teaching hospitals?
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 2,991

    Scott_xP said:

    IanB2 said:

    What time are we expecting the clown to address the nation?

    https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1315544208288165889
    The beginning of the end of Johnson's premiership tonight then.

    Yes, it looks like it's going to end in tiers.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,540

    Scott_xP said:

    This is the worst period of public policy since pre-war appeasement.

    And Brexit still to come...
    Yesteday's poll gave those expecting brexit to be good for the country in the longer term a majority
    It doesn't matter what people "expect". What matters is what actually happens.
    The point is that for the first time people expecting brexit to be good for the country was a majority

    That in itself is significant
    Why is that significant?
    The significance is it is the first time a poll has recorded a majority expecting brexit to be good for the country
    But why is that in itself significant? It makes no difference to reality.

    The majority would not have expected mask wearing to become almost universal in public in the UK in 2020, but it did.
    OK
    What? You did a @HYUFD and just dropped a statistic without any explanation of why or how it is relevant. I merely questioned that.

    Yes it's interesting that the public is now expecting "Brexit" to be a good thing but why is that? Could it be that for the most part people are under the impression that Brexit is done and dusted and because nothing has really changed those doom and gloom remoaners were obviously wrong?

    The real test will be after new year when things actually do change and Brexit starts being something tangible rather than the unicorn it *still* is.

    Note that I am making no comment about the merits or otherwise of Brexit. That is not what this is about.
    One poll significantly that is different from a fairly extended timeline of findings would normally have us looking at the technical details of the poll, who conducted it and why, and thinking about rogue errors.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,883
    SF ahead of the DUP again. Oof.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 6,910
    I see the Daily Express headline is back to trying to resurrect the Greatest Hits. "Another lockdown to save the NHS". Somehow i don't think the "save the NHS" line will have quite the same cut through this time. Perhaps they should have just restricted themselves to "lockdown to save lives".
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 5,650

    It’s time for the Government to start asking the right questions; framing things in the light of accumulating evidence, not unexamined preconceptions. On that basis, the course we should be taking is clear: asymptomatic spread is good . Advise and help the very elderly and those with serious illnesses to shield if they wish – but do not compel them, it’s their life, after all. And let everyone else get completely back to normal.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/12/not-cases-covid-created-equal/

    Those who have had it and have it no longer could be tattooed with an official certification to allow them to get on with life as normal.

  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,770

    IshmaelZ said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Great post. Something poisonous seems to have infected this government, a kind of unfettered lust for raw power that can brook no compromise or checks and balances. It really scares me.

    https://twitter.com/ottocrat/status/1315535060678905857
    Statchoos are important to the type of person that drives a P reg Rover 100 with an odd coloured door. ie the new core tory vote.
    Down with all reminders of racial oppression and the use of slave labour! Away with them forever!

    Signed

    A Porsche driver
    Have you got your test result yet?

    My wife and I were talking about this a few days ago; so far as we know no-one in our families received reparations for freed slaves. However, we have no idea whether any of our ancestors were sailors on the ships which carried the poor souls across the Atlantic, and my wife's family, as cotton mill workers, undoubtedly benefited from being able to work with the cheap cotton the South produced, although some were probably among the Lancashire people who, at personal hardship, supported the Ant-Slavery side in the American Civil War.
    So it's complicated.
    Not yet, but not been 24 hours yet

    Very good point. There can't be a white Englishman alive without an ancestor who made a living out of the slave trade one way or another. What I'd like to see rather than twattery over statues is some serious economic history - slavery and ancillary activities as a % of GDP and overseas trade, 1600-1850, which I expect would expose the UK as a slaving nation like Saudi Arabia is an oil nation, rather than a lot of lovely blokes with a few bad tory slave-trader eggs getting statues made of themselves.

    Didn't know about those Lancastrians. I am from there myself so will claim them as forebears from now on.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 30,232
    edited October 2020
    DavidL said:

    malcolmg said:

    Jonathan said:

    Big G is to neutral objectivity, what Donald Trump is to quiet, dignified leadership.

    I am not neutral.

    I am a conservative member and support the conservative government
    No matter how useless and evil they are ? Tories are a cult.
    Oh the irony. SNP support is by far the most cultish support of any political party in the UK today. Willing to excuse anything for the cause of independence.
    Always good to know in advance whether it's going to be an EssEnnPee Civil War day or an EssEnnPee Ovine Cult day.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 4,372
    edited October 2020

    It used to be said that a good lawyer could argue either side of the case. The problem with activist lawyers is that they are only interested in one side. They are activists first and foremost, using the law a means to an end.

    This is highly misleading. There are firms of solicitors who specialise in particular sorts of work, and as law gets duller and more complex this increases. In many aspects of law one side is always or nearly always legally represented by a state authority of some sort - the CPS, the DPP, HMRC, the Government's own (gigantic) legal department etc. So criminal law firms essentially can only do defence work, immigration firms can only act for the migrant and so on. They are usually taking on the state. The state has the advantage that the tax payer pays the lawyers, and the state apparatus (government and parliament) has an exclusive degree of control over what the law says. No firm, however committed, can make up the laws which courts put into effect.

    'Activist' lawyers are one of our defences against an arrogant state. The more the Home Secretary doesn't like them the more their existence is justified.

  • felixfelix Posts: 13,720
    IanB2 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Big G is to neutral objectivity, what Donald Trump is to quiet, dignified leadership.

    Trump is a lot more consistent, to be fair.
    The site is better when laying off the snide personal remarks and engaging with the arguments.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,280
    algarkirk said:

    Thank you Cyclefree. What an excellent article.

    The attack on lawyers, growing in volume, is in part desperation as well as ignorance. Even most MPs, dim though some are, realise that the legal system as a whole puts into effect what parliament has sanctioned, provided for or compelled. Attacks on 'activist' lawyers are of course attacks on the rule of law, parliamentary democracy and the judiciary. The PM and Home Secretary joining in is a sign of desperation about their own competence and ability to cope.

    As to the poor old voter, I can't be the only moderate liberal minded centrist who usually votes Tory because all the alternatives are worse who is hoping that SKS can quietly purge his abysmal party and offer us something which would be recognisable to Roy Jenkins and Lord Clarke as a government.

    There is a degree of desperation in using lawyers as aunt sally's but the desperation is real. The asylum system is a total disaster and has been for decades. Many, many tens of thousands of people have had their applications for leave to remain refused but they are still here. Many are so here for so long that they acquire rights to family life, children born in this country etc all of which make enforcement more complicated and invites further court intervention and the wasting of more public money. This is not the fault of the lawyers, they are doing their job, it is the fault of a massively under-resourced and ineffective system.

    This was the deeply unsatisfactory picture at the beginning of this year. God knows what it is like after months of Immigration Tribunals either not operating at all or with very restricted capacity. The reality is that hundreds of thousands of people who came here on student or holiday visas and overstayed, economic migrants and ineligible claims (because we weren't their first safe country, for example) are never going to be removed. Never.

    A system that has never coped has totally buckled. Wide spread amnesties, (eg an amnesty for all those who have been here more than 5 years already) is the only answer but politically difficult. Of course very much the same applies to summary crime. Tens of thousands of cases are just never going to be dealt with.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,481
    edited October 2020

    SF ahead of the DUP again. Oof.

    Once you include the 6% for Traditional Unionist Voice though Unionists will still have more Assembly seats than Nationalists as Stormont uses STV not FPTP, overall the Unionist vote is on 41% and the Nationalist vote on 37% with the Alliance on 16%
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,759

    DavidL said:

    malcolmg said:

    Jonathan said:

    Big G is to neutral objectivity, what Donald Trump is to quiet, dignified leadership.

    I am not neutral.

    I am a conservative member and support the conservative government
    No matter how useless and evil they are ? Tories are a cult.
    Oh the irony. SNP support is by far the most cultish support of any political party in the UK today. Willing to excuse anything for the cause of independence.
    Always good to know in advance whether it's going to be an EssEnnPee Civil War day or an EssEnnPee Sheeplike Cult day.
    That's a funny point well made, but there isn't actually a contradiction between being both cultlike and able to have vicious internal civil wars. Actual cults and religion manage it.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,280

    DavidL said:

    malcolmg said:

    Jonathan said:

    Big G is to neutral objectivity, what Donald Trump is to quiet, dignified leadership.

    I am not neutral.

    I am a conservative member and support the conservative government
    No matter how useless and evil they are ? Tories are a cult.
    Oh the irony. SNP support is by far the most cultish support of any political party in the UK today. Willing to excuse anything for the cause of independence.
    Always good to know in advance whether it's going to be an EssEnnPee Civil War day or an EssEnnPee Ovine Cult day.
    Divvie, you can have both. I'm feeling generous.
  • geoffw said:

    It’s time for the Government to start asking the right questions; framing things in the light of accumulating evidence, not unexamined preconceptions. On that basis, the course we should be taking is clear: asymptomatic spread is good . Advise and help the very elderly and those with serious illnesses to shield if they wish – but do not compel them, it’s their life, after all. And let everyone else get completely back to normal.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/12/not-cases-covid-created-equal/

    Those who have had it and have it no longer could be tattooed with an official certification to allow them to get on with life as normal.

    You know you can catch it twice, right?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 68,477
    MaxPB said:

    Suddenly the Right like Judges again!!! Strange times my friends, strange times...

    https://twitter.com/JuliaHB1/status/1315378563076575233

    It also shows the difference between Burnham and Sadiq. Burnham is sticking up for the businesses and employees of the North, Sadiq is egging the government on to shut everything down. Good on Burnham.
    The ability for a Gov't to act unfettered, except by parliamentary scrutiny (Which there has been - Starmer has abstained on stuff to let it through) is an important point I think should be upheld in a national emergency
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 5,650
    Better half just told me to google "ismo leikola shit".
    Still drying my eyes.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kXH3HDE9Czo
This discussion has been closed.