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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lib Dem incumbency would be overwhelmed on current polling
Cockroach-like. That was Tim Farron’s description of Lib Dems’ resilience in withstanding a hostile climate. The inference was that no matter how tough things might be across the country, where they have elected representatives, their vote would hold firm enough.
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Equestrian cement! Equestrian cement! You're in my telescope...0
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More insomnia...
Excellent article (yet again), David. The cause of the Yellows' problem is simply stated: it's the 2010 election result. As Shirley Williams said at the time, there was no real alternative for them once they'd been invited into coalition (on the back, I believe, of the positive personal chemistry between the party leaders). And junior partners in coalitions get hammered.
Their best bet would seem to be to debate continuing in coalition or withdrawing to "confidence and supply" at their Conference in September. They ought to do the latter, not because it will help them next May, but because the clear yellow water should do so in the longer term. However, that rather depends on some scandal or other blowing UKIP out of the water. Perhaps there could be a book on that!0 -
No, their main problem was Nick Clegg abandoning the tuition fees pledge the LibDems had fought the election on. It was front and centre in their campaign, not just buried in the small print of the manifesto. There was no need for this. Clegg then went on television and said in as many words that LibDem election promises could never be believed.Innocent_Abroad said:More insomnia...
Excellent article (yet again), David. The cause of the Yellows' problem is simply stated: it's the 2010 election result. As Shirley Williams said at the time, there was no real alternative for them once they'd been invited into coalition (on the back, I believe, of the positive personal chemistry between the party leaders). And junior partners in coalitions get hammered.
Their best bet would seem to be to debate continuing in coalition or withdrawing to "confidence and supply" at their Conference in September. They ought to do the latter, not because it will help them next May, but because the clear yellow water should do so in the longer term. However, that rather depends on some scandal or other blowing UKIP out of the water. Perhaps there could be a book on that!
In 2010 I was derided on here for suggesting the coalition would be dissolved shortly before the election in order to allow differentiation, with the LibDems saying they'd restrained the Tories, and Conservatives saying they'd been held back by the LibDems.0 -
Whatever happened to Martin Day?0
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Started a yellow cabs business in Huddersfield. Went national. Now 33rd on the Sunday Times rich list.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:Whatever happened to Martin Day?
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The problem with these threads is that the general election is not this month but next year and we could equally have threads on :
The Tories current polling would see them in opposition or Ukip current polling would have them significantly represented in the HoC.
As for the LibDems the ICM "Wisdom Polling" is as good a guide as any to their likely national polling next year to which I'd add my own projection for a figure of around 14%. Even then a straight analysis is practically worthless without taking into account individual MP incumbency and Hotspot analysis.
PBers need to recall that from Feb74 Lib/LibDem national vote share has rarely has any direct relationship to MP numbers :
Feb 74 - 19.3% - 14 seats
Oct 74 - 18.3% - 13 seats
May 79 - 13.8% - 11 seats
Jun 83 - 25.4% - 23 seats
Jun 87 - 22.6% - 22 seats
Apr 92 - 17.8% - 20 seats
May 97 - 16.8% - 46 seats
Jun 01 - 18.3% - 52 seats
May 05 - 22.0% - 62 seats
May 10 - 23.0% - 57 seats
The trick with LibDem seats is to determine in each seat whether the hotspot remains hot enough to outweigh any other factor.0 -
The Lib Dems lack both a defining cause and are now even losing their regional identification.
The citadels of strength most under siege are in Cornwall and the West country; South West London; and even in the rural and mannerly reaches of Scotland. Pockets of resistance may hold out: Clegg in Sheffield Hallam; Cable in Twickenham; Farron in Westmorland; Hughes in Bermondsey; and, the grey councillor in Eastleigh. But what do these disparate constituencies tell us about the identity of the party?
As for a political cause, there is no Iraq war to oppose and little current prospect of military adventure overseas. The EU is tainted with the Euro crisis and the current failure to rise from its ashes, with all media coverage currently about revolt, rebellion and the pan continental rise of the far right. The "party of In" is as currently appealing to voters as a bucket of yellow vomit. Even the Lib Dems pitch to the student and academic population has been compromised by the U-Turn on tuition fees.
So all the Lib Dems are left with is the faintly appealing role of being a force for moderation in coalition government. Even here their task is being made difficult by UKIP detoxifying the Tories; Cameron and Osborne's natural bias towards to the centre ground; and the Labour party committing at the next election, at least in policy promise, to fiscal continence.
And those who flocked to the yellows in protest during the years of Blairite folly are now being lured into UKIP to crush invading foreigners with jackboots.
The Lib Dems won't recover votes until they find a new or refreshed identity which suits the current political environment.0 -
The Conservatives aren't much better.AveryLP said:The Lib Dems lack both a defining cause and are now even losing their regional identification.
The citadels of strength most under siege are in Cornwall and the West country; South West London; and even in the rural and mannerly reaches of Scotland. Pockets of resistance may hold out: Clegg in Sheffield Hallam; Cable in Twickenham; Farron in Westmorland; Hughes in Bermondsey; and, the grey councillor in Eastleigh. But what do these disparate constituencies tell us about the identity of the party?
As for a political cause, there is no Iraq war to oppose and little current prospect of military adventure overseas. The EU is tainted with the Euro crisis and the current failure to rise from its ashes, with all media coverage currently about revolt, rebellion and the pan continental rise of the far right. The "party of In" is as currently appealing to voters as a bucket of yellow vomit. Even the Lib Dems pitch to the student and academic population has been compromised by the U-Turn on tuition fees.
So all the Lib Dems are left with is the faintly appealing role of being a force for moderation in coalition government. Even here their task is being made difficult by UKIP detoxifying the Tories; Cameron and Osborne's natural bias towards to the centre ground; and the Labour party committing at the next election, at least in policy promise, to fiscal continence.
And those who flocked to the yellows in protest during the years of Blairite folly are now being lured into UKIP to crush invading foreigners with jackboots.
The Lib Dems won't recover votes until they find a new or refreshed identity which suits the current political environment.
Weak leadership, no ideas, no convictions and relying on legacy support.0 -
The thread is an important one, particularly the point about uniform national swing not working when a party suffers such a severe drop in support as the Lib Dems have suffered), which is often overlooked. Indeed, the position for the Lib Dems is still worse, because three consecutive polls of the Labour/Conservative marginals suggest that the Lib Dems are retaining substantial votes in those seats, which strongly implies in turn that on current polling they must be doing still worse in their own seats. Anyone who wishes to read my views at length on this can look here:
http://newstonoone.blogspot.se/2014/04/the-hunt-for-2010-lib-dems-part-1.html
http://newstonoone.blogspot.se/2014/04/the-hunt-for-2010-lib-dems-part-2-lib_24.html
http://newstonoone.blogspot.se/2014/04/the-hunt-for-2010-lib-dems-part-3.html
http://newstonoone.blogspot.se/2014/04/the-hunt-for-2010-lib-dems-part-4.html
I also agree with JackW's general approach of looking at individual MP incumbency and hotspot analysis.
What this does mean is that seats where the Lib Dem incumbent is standing down, such as Somerton & Frome, North East Fife or Gordon, look much more vulnerable than one might anticipate from the majorities of the current occupant.
The incumbency effect was neatly explained by Survation in one of the most important blogposts of the year on Lib Dem incumbency:
http://survation.com/so-how-would-changing-leader-work-out-for-the-lib-dems-will-nick-clegg-lose-sheffield-hallam/
This post repays careful reading from start to finish. It also suggests a mechanism under which Lib Dem polling will improve in the final furlong, as voters in Lib Dem held constituencies are reminded of the virtues of their own MP.
Right now I'd guess that the Lib Dems will hold about 30 seats next year.
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Beautiful clear and bright morning here in the South, Mr. Brooke.Alanbrooke said:
The Conservatives aren't much better.AveryLP said:The Lib Dems lack both a defining cause and are now even losing their regional identification.
The citadels of strength most under siege are in Cornwall and the West country; South West London; and even in the rural and mannerly reaches of Scotland. Pockets of resistance may hold out: Clegg in Sheffield Hallam; Cable in Twickenham; Farron in Westmorland; Hughes in Bermondsey; and, the grey councillor in Eastleigh. But what do these disparate constituencies tell us about the identity of the party?
As for a political cause, there is no Iraq war to oppose and little current prospect of military adventure overseas. The EU is tainted with the Euro crisis and the current failure to rise from its ashes, with all media coverage currently about revolt, rebellion and the pan continental rise of the far right. The "party of In" is as currently appealing to voters as a bucket of yellow vomit. Even the Lib Dems pitch to the student and academic population has been compromised by the U-Turn on tuition fees.
So all the Lib Dems are left with is the faintly appealing role of being a force for moderation in coalition government. Even here their task is being made difficult by UKIP detoxifying the Tories; Cameron and Osborne's natural bias towards to the centre ground; and the Labour party committing at the next election, at least in policy promise, to fiscal continence.
And those who flocked to the yellows in protest during the years of Blairite folly are now being lured into UKIP to crush invading foreigners with jackboots.
The Lib Dems won't recover votes until they find a new or refreshed identity which suits the current political environment.
Weak leadership, no ideas, no convictions and relying on legacy support.
Has the sun not yet risen in Warwickshire?
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The sun always shines in Warwickshire Mr P; it's why the inhabitants always have such a sunny disposition.AveryLP said:
Beautiful clear and bright morning here in the South, Mr. Brooke.Alanbrooke said:
The Conservatives aren't much better.AveryLP said:The Lib Dems lack both a defining cause and are now even losing their regional identification.
The citadels of strength most under siege are in Cornwall and the West country; South West London; and even in the rural and mannerly reaches of Scotland. Pockets of resistance may hold out: Clegg in Sheffield Hallam; Cable in Twickenham; Farron in Westmorland; Hughes in Bermondsey; and, the grey councillor in Eastleigh. But what do these disparate constituencies tell us about the identity of the party?
As for a political cause, there is no Iraq war to oppose and little current prospect of military adventure overseas. The EU is tainted with the Euro crisis and the current failure to rise from its ashes, with all media coverage currently about revolt, rebellion and the pan continental rise of the far right. The "party of In" is as currently appealing to voters as a bucket of yellow vomit. Even the Lib Dems pitch to the student and academic population has been compromised by the U-Turn on tuition fees.
So all the Lib Dems are left with is the faintly appealing role of being a force for moderation in coalition government. Even here their task is being made difficult by UKIP detoxifying the Tories; Cameron and Osborne's natural bias towards to the centre ground; and the Labour party committing at the next election, at least in policy promise, to fiscal continence.
And those who flocked to the yellows in protest during the years of Blairite folly are now being lured into UKIP to crush invading foreigners with jackboots.
The Lib Dems won't recover votes until they find a new or refreshed identity which suits the current political environment.
Weak leadership, no ideas, no convictions and relying on legacy support.
Has the sun not yet risen in Warwickshire?0 -
Forget Westminster, their problem is at the local level. Yes they lost 41% of seats held in this years local elections, and that's a catastrophe. But last year it was a similar picture. And the year before that. And the year before that. Indeed they have lost at least 20+% of seats held in every round of local elections since joining the government and next year they have a whopping 1038 up for reelection - so they'll lose 250 to 420 of them.
It took them decades to build this kind of local power base, and Clegg has destroyed it inside a single parliament. They keep protesting that people don't understand them, or they need to communicate their achievements better, or that they're a moderating force. Their former electorate seem clear - they didn't like to be openly lied to, they don't like the government, and saying they restrained the Tories is saying "we know we shot you dead, but the Tories wanted to shoot more bullets into your corpse so please give us credit for defending you".
Any other party would have removed a leader this catastrophic. Yet the LibDems leave Clegg and his entryist cabal in place. So they deserve all they get, and forget about UNS. Even if you counted national votes cast in a general election towards seats won, they are so badly damaged that I expect even their few remaining pockets of resistance will crumble. As the Oakshott polls showed albeit from a small sample.0 -
RochdalePioneers said:
Forget Westminster, their problem is at the local level. Yes they lost 41% of seats held in this years local elections, and that's a catastrophe. But last year it was a similar picture. And the year before that. And the year before that. Indeed they have lost at least 20+% of seats held in every round of local elections since joining the government and next year they have a whopping 1038 up for reelection - so they'll lose 250 to 420 of them.
It took them decades to build this kind of local power base, and Clegg has destroyed it inside a single parliament. They keep protesting that people don't understand them, or they need to communicate their achievements better, or that they're a moderating force. Their former electorate seem clear - they didn't like to be openly lied to, they don't like the government, and saying they restrained the Tories is saying "we know we shot you dead, but the Tories wanted to shoot more bullets into your corpse so please give us credit for defending you".
Any other party would have removed a leader this catastrophic. Yet the LibDems leave Clegg and his entryist cabal in place. So they deserve all they get, and forget about UNS. Even if you counted national votes cast in a general election towards seats won, they are so badly damaged that I expect even their few remaining pockets of resistance will crumble. As the Oakshott polls showed albeit from a small sample.
Any other party would have removed a leader this catastrophic.
Labour didn't remove Brown and that was despite appalling ratings and more botched coups than the LibDems.
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Not exactly on subject but when its quoted that ukip are picking up 3 times more 2010 tory voters than Labour voters, has any analysis been done on how many 2005 and 2001 Labour voters UKIP are picking up. As these are people Labour need back seeing 2010 was a low, it would surely be of interest?0
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This will be the most difficult election to forecast for decades, for all parties, not just the lib dems as this article demonstrates:
"Millions who backed Ukip 'will choose party' in general election" "Poll suggests vast majority of people who voted for Ukip in European elections will vote for the party in general election"
"The poll, by ComRes suggests that 86 per cent of people who voted for Nigel Farage’s party will do so again next year."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/10866335/Ukip-vote-in-European-elections-no-flash-in-pan-according-to-new-poll.html
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Thought provoking thread as on current polling the Lib Dems probably stand to lose more seats than currently anticipated. If they retain 30-40 seats which seems to be the current expectation then it implies a higher vote share than currently recorded. I think it would be difficult to go from just shy of a quarter of the vote to around a tenth without it hurting significantly in seat terms. JackW has a point that the numbers will be different in a year but we can only go on the numbers we have, and they're grim.
The danger for the Lib Dems isn't necessarily the seats they hold, but those where they were making inroads. The party may find that it not only loses half it's representation but also a major slice of what would have been it's next steps. It could be that in seats with lowest support levels closest to current polling the vote holds firm, in the seats they have sizeable share but don't hold the share drops savagely towards the average and that further up the scale the drop is more in line with UNS and in a few outposts the vote holds up reasonably by which you'd probably see a drop of less than half that indicated by current polling. In such a scenario you might see the party retain a decent number of seats and the possibility of recapturing a few after a decent interval but it would also put an upper limit on their ambitions for a few elections
It really is though impossible to tell what's going on, I think the next election is shaping up to be quite the most fascinating election in a generation. The outcome may be far closer than a 1983 or a 1997 in terms of seats but the effect in terms of ripping up previous electoral geography may be every bit as dramatic.0 -
Morning all and another thoughtful piece David.
1983-7 were the key years, certainly in Scotland. That was when the LibDem march to their current highish position began. In Scotland they took themselves out of their fringe, the Northern Isles and Cornwall plus the odd seat here and there. In Scotland they captured seats like Argyll + Bute, Gordon, Ross + Cromarty and NE Fife from the Tories, completing the job taking West Aberdeenshire + Kincardine and Edinburgh West in 1997. Next year we are likely to see loss of incumbency in several of these seats, the only question in each case is to whom?0 -
He took a bit of a breakdown and moved down to live with his father. He kept in regular contact with me and I became increasingly concerned at his behaviour. Thankfully he obtained professional help and I believe was making a good recovery when last in contact. I only involved one other PBer, Maggie Thatcher Fan because he had expressed some concern to me about Martin (not his real name) Day's health.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:Whatever happened to Martin Day?
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My thanks to all of you: PB.com at its best. I got a little more sleep, thank God, and returned expecting to find a post I vehemently objected to - there isn't one! Everyone has added a little more, no one has taken away.
Those who support FPTP should read and reread Jack W's [7.14] post and then ask themselves: do I really believe in representative democracy?0 -
Easterross, heard any more from Roger ?Easterross said:
He took a bit of a breakdown and moved down to live with his father. He kept in regular contact with me and I became increasingly concerned at his behaviour. Thankfully he obtained professional help and I believe was making a good recovery when last in contact. I only involved one other PBer, Maggie Thatcher Fan because he had expressed some concern to me about Martin (not his real name) Day's health.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:Whatever happened to Martin Day?
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Many thanks Easterross. I always found Martin an interesting poster and am glad that he is recovering. Posts about LD's having or heading into disasters always remind me of the yellow taxi posts he used to make.Easterross said:
He took a bit of a breakdown and moved down to live with his father. He kept in regular contact with me and I became increasingly concerned at his behaviour. Thankfully he obtained professional help and I believe was making a good recovery when last in contact. I only involved one other PBer, Maggie Thatcher Fan because he had expressed some concern to me about Martin (not his real name) Day's health.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:Whatever happened to Martin Day?
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Off topic, but very interesting, a left-of-centre view on David Cameron's apparent lack of travails:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/30/david-cameron-still-centre-every-political-storm
It's certainly true that UKIP's rise at least allows the Conservatives to triangulate and it helps their detoxification with centrist voters.
The comments are a good insight into the mindset of many coalition opponents. Fascinating that so many assume that David Cameron is thick in defiance of all available evidence.0 -
Good morning, everyone.
I'm very glad to hear Mr. Day is doing better. If laughter is the best medicine the last week or so will have helped him immensely.0 -
On topic, last nights pub chat centred on this very topic, and the likelihood of a majority one way or t'other. I'm thinking 20-25 holds on current polling but there is a watershed of about 9% under which they face wipeout in all but a handful. People like Norman Lamb in N Norfolk will be very nervous at polling in single figures. Scotland looks to me like Thurso and Kennedy only, and Charlie will only survive on name recognition and being a good honest lad. May 2015 stands to be a nightmare for them .
Off topic, then had a deliciously stupid dream last night. I was a Tory MP and we were (quelle surprise) engulfed in a scandal, with one of our MPs reported by Labour for something or other and booted out. So I cooked up the idea of stitching up Balls. However, it turns out he had been found guilty of murder and sentenced to 14 years for ramming his boat into another one and killing everyone on board. Ed Miliband was then leading a parade of the Labour MPs on the beach, and we taunted them with calls of 'where's Balls? Where's the killer?', which to my chagrin ended up losing us the votes of 'intelligent and curious young students'.
Yes, I need help.0 -
Woolie old bean, Danny has a better chance of holding than the noble Viscount as the non-LibDem vote in Invershneckie is more evenly divided.0
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It's always a good place to be having your enemies underestimate you.antifrank said:Off topic, but very interesting, a left-of-centre view on David Cameron's apparent lack of travails:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/30/david-cameron-still-centre-every-political-storm
It's certainly true that UKIP's rise at least allows the Conservatives to triangulate and it helps their detoxification with centrist voters.
The comments are a good insight into the mindset of many coalition opponents. Fascinating that so many assume that David Cameron is thick in defiance of all available evidence.0 -
As a fellow sufferer of mental health issues I sympathise. If you hear from him again, send him my regards.Easterross said:
He took a bit of a breakdown and moved down to live with his father. He kept in regular contact with me and I became increasingly concerned at his behaviour. Thankfully he obtained professional help and I believe was making a good recovery when last in contact. I only involved one other PBer, Maggie Thatcher Fan because he had expressed some concern to me about Martin (not his real name) Day's health.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:Whatever happened to Martin Day?
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Oops, I meant Carmichael, not Thurso, got their seats mixed up!Easterross said:Woolie old bean, Danny has a better chance of holding than the noble Viscount as the non-LibDem vote in Invershneckie is more evenly divided.
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He's far from thick. He's quite eloquently devious.ToryJim said:
It's always a good place to be having your enemies underestimate you.antifrank said:Off topic, but very interesting, a left-of-centre view on David Cameron's apparent lack of travails:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/30/david-cameron-still-centre-every-political-storm
It's certainly true that UKIP's rise at least allows the Conservatives to triangulate and it helps their detoxification with centrist voters.
The comments are a good insight into the mindset of many coalition opponents. Fascinating that so many assume that David Cameron is thick in defiance of all available evidence.0 -
Woolie , hopefully both him and Alexander get what they deserve and are consigned to the dustbin where they belong.dyedwoolie said:
Oops, I meant Carmichael, not Thurso, got their seats mixed up!Easterross said:Woolie old bean, Danny has a better chance of holding than the noble Viscount as the non-LibDem vote in Invershneckie is more evenly divided.
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Indeed Alistair Carmichael would be the last yellow man standing. The problem I have in wishing lots of LibDems to be unseated is that so many are very fine chaps and would make excellent Tory MPs. Perhaps my opinion is in part due to the fact we Scots are used to sharing with the Yellow Peril. We had Liberal Unionists and National Liberals within the Tory family in the 1950s until 1965 when we created the absurdly named Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party. It has been downhill since then.0
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On the basis of figures which Andrea_parma highlighted Bristol West could go Yellow, Red or Green. The Greens have built up some support in the wards closest to the University,but not sure that Labour's Gender Equality Worker has enough presence to go any further. Stephen Williams my still hang on but it may depend on the Greens not imploding or fighting amongst themselves. The Greens seem to be the latest depository for lost causes, they could benefit from the Bristol Green Capital year, but have the potential to be m/c out of touch elitists0
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Alexander is a goner. You'll have to prise Carmichael out with a crowbar, though!malcolmg said:
Woolie , hopefully both him and Alexander get what they deserve and are consigned to the dustbin where they belong.dyedwoolie said:
Oops, I meant Carmichael, not Thurso, got their seats mixed up!Easterross said:Woolie old bean, Danny has a better chance of holding than the noble Viscount as the non-LibDem vote in Invershneckie is more evenly divided.
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Indeed. Although it's not quite time for the Scottish Conservative Liberal Social Deomcrat Independence Party just yet!Easterross said:Indeed Alistair Carmichael would be the last yellow man standing. The problem I have in wishing lots of LibDems to be unseated is that so many are very fine chaps and would make excellent Tory MPs. Perhaps my opinion is in part due to the fact we Scots are used to sharing with the Yellow Peril. We had Liberal Unionists and National Liberals within the Tory family in the 1950s until 1965 when we created the absurdly named Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party. It has been downhill since then.
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I should advise you my noble Easterross that much like the days of old when discussing the death of the sovereign was an act of treason so it is with those considering the political death of the Viscount !!Easterross said:Woolie old bean, Danny has a better chance of holding than the noble Viscount as the non-LibDem vote in Invershneckie is more evenly divided.
For offenders it all gets very messy in the hanging, drawing and quartering department .... mind you you'd be able to see Inverness, Tain, Thurso and Fort William all in one go !!
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I'm just waiting for a report back from TSE on how he
enduredenjoyed New Kids on the Block last night. Although how they get away with calling a 30-year old troupe of middle aged men "new" or "kids" escapes me.0 -
Roger and I were never what one might call boozem buddies. He liked expensive overpriced fizz and I like LambruscoAlanbrooke said:
Easterross, heard any more from Roger ?Easterross said:
He took a bit of a breakdown and moved down to live with his father. He kept in regular contact with me and I became increasingly concerned at his behaviour. Thankfully he obtained professional help and I believe was making a good recovery when last in contact. I only involved one other PBer, Maggie Thatcher Fan because he had expressed some concern to me about Martin (not his real name) Day's health.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:Whatever happened to Martin Day?
I assume he is doing what for a luvvy constitutes hard work, the Cannes Film Festival, the Edinburgh Film Festival etc etc. I do hope he well though and may return, at the very least so we PB Tories can have some sport with him in the next 11 months. 0 -
Just a thought but if LD polls remain dire, what's the chances of some of the more high profile 'right wing' LD's in Govt switching to Tory before the next GE?0
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With great pleasure. Your dream was a bit scary? Was Milibland in speedos or a mankini (washing my mind out with soap)dyedwoolie said:
As a fellow sufferer of mental health issues I sympathise. If you hear from him again, send him my regards.Easterross said:
He took a bit of a breakdown and moved down to live with his father. He kept in regular contact with me and I became increasingly concerned at his behaviour. Thankfully he obtained professional help and I believe was making a good recovery when last in contact. I only involved one other PBer, Maggie Thatcher Fan because he had expressed some concern to me about Martin (not his real name) Day's health.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:Whatever happened to Martin Day?
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Morning all - and cheers, a thought provoking thread Mr Herdson.
Accurately forecasting the outcome of the next GE is neigh on impossible imho. Given the present climate of four party politics, one thing is for sure however and that is the Lib Dems are in for big loses on the night. - On a brighter note, the Lib Dems will always have Gibraltar..!
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I remember the abuse I received on here when I strongly recommended that he should seek professional help with his mental problems . I I am pleased that he is on the mend .Easterross said:
He took a bit of a breakdown and moved down to live with his father. He kept in regular contact with me and I became increasingly concerned at his behaviour. Thankfully he obtained professional help and I believe was making a good recovery when last in contact. I only involved one other PBer, Maggie Thatcher Fan because he had expressed some concern to me about Martin (not his real name) Day's health.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:Whatever happened to Martin Day?
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No - Liberal Democrats could do WORSE than current polling. Go and check out the local vs national VI in the much maligned Hallam poll.0
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ZeroBlue_rog said:Just a thought but if LD polls remain dire, what's the chances of some of the more high profile 'right wing' LD's in Govt switching to Tory before the next GE?
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No, he was properly suited and booted, but he was marching the LPP into the sea, which might be somewhat prophetic!Easterross said:
With great pleasure. Your dream was a bit scary? Was Milibland in speedos or a mankini (washing my mind out with soap)dyedwoolie said:
As a fellow sufferer of mental health issues I sympathise. If you hear from him again, send him my regards.Easterross said:
He took a bit of a breakdown and moved down to live with his father. He kept in regular contact with me and I became increasingly concerned at his behaviour. Thankfully he obtained professional help and I believe was making a good recovery when last in contact. I only involved one other PBer, Maggie Thatcher Fan because he had expressed some concern to me about Martin (not his real name) Day's health.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:Whatever happened to Martin Day?
It was a most odd dream, though, if hilariously enjoyable in the cold (warm) light of a Norfolk morning.0 -
Pretty much what I was saying on here a couple of weeks back. If the Tories are clever the rise of UKIP is a huge opportunity for them. They can pass the "nasty party" tag over to UKIP and tag towards the centre, where most voters sit. One thing is certain: trying to out-UKIP UKIP is impossible.antifrank said:Off topic, but very interesting, a left-of-centre view on David Cameron's apparent lack of travails:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/30/david-cameron-still-centre-every-political-storm
It's certainly true that UKIP's rise at least allows the Conservatives to triangulate and it helps their detoxification with centrist voters.
The comments are a good insight into the mindset of many coalition opponents. Fascinating that so many assume that David Cameron is thick in defiance of all available evidence.
That said, I am not sure that I would categorise anyone writing anonymous comments on newspaper message boards (or political ones like this!) as being representative of anything much.
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Almost zero. There aren't any safe seats left to herd them into, and they are not joining a certain winning team as it stands. Maybe one or two might be prized across with the promise of a junkit in the HoL, Laws maybe could come over and defend Yeovil as a Tory and take it, but he has baggage.Blue_rog said:Just a thought but if LD polls remain dire, what's the chances of some of the more high profile 'right wing' LD's in Govt switching to Tory before the next GE?
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The issue here is the differentiation problem - people need some sort of emotional or intellectual attachment to keep voting for you, and if your only appeal is that someone else is even worse they probably won't bother. Innocent's suggestion of withdrawing to Confidence & Supply in the autumn is a possible strategy, but it would probably fail, because it immediately runs into two questions:
1. Why are you doing this now? What's got worse than last year?
Implied truthful answer: because we're about to ask for your votes.
2. If you no longer feel that you can support the government, are you ruling out a renewal of the Coalition after the election?
Answer; Well, no. We'll have to see, it depends on the figures, etc.
In combination, the two questions IMO would kill the differentiation factor and merely make people feel more cynical.
On Newark, replying to various posts: No, UKIP isn't yet doing efficient canvassing and postal vote recruitment, as reports of their campaign make clear - their approach is to have lots of activists and hope for the best. That said, the advantages of GOTV and an efficient ground war are significant but not massive - I'd guess they boost the vote by 2-3%, but they don't do miracles if the voters have had enough of you. The one poll so far does mathematically indicate a possible close race, though equally there could be a huge gap - with probably two more polls coming we should know much more by Monday.
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I obv meant worse than in the locals.0
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Agreed. They need to take advantage of the radiation bath to detoxify, and speak for and to those in the centre that have reasonable concerns that are being exposed by UKIP without knee jerking. UKIPs great skill has been in showing how the political elite have radicalised (in terms of how they have made them feel) the centrists.SouthamObserver said:
Pretty much what I was saying on here a couple of weeks back. If the Tories are clever the rise of UKIP is a huge opportunity for them. They can pass the "nasty party" tag over to UKIP and tag towards the centre, where most voters sit. One thing is certain: trying to out-UKIP UKIP is impossible.antifrank said:Off topic, but very interesting, a left-of-centre view on David Cameron's apparent lack of travails:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/30/david-cameron-still-centre-every-political-storm
It's certainly true that UKIP's rise at least allows the Conservatives to triangulate and it helps their detoxification with centrist voters.
The comments are a good insight into the mindset of many coalition opponents. Fascinating that so many assume that David Cameron is thick in defiance of all available evidence.
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@SouthamObserver
Trying to out UKIP the kippers is a disastrous proposition because the Coke retort invariably follows. Why have that inferior brand when you can have the real thing? Far better to head to the centre and circle the wagons.0 -
As someone who likes the fact that with FPTP we have an individual who is our local MP, the Yellow Peril should reflect on the current plight of the Scots Tories. We had 413,000 votes in Scotland but so evenly spread we got 1 MP. The LibDems had 465,000 in Scotland and harvested 11 seats because their vote was more concentrated. The Scots Tories were in 2nd place in 15 of the 58 seats we didn't win. The LibDems were in 2nd place in 6 of the 48 seats they didn't win. So the Scots Tories were in 1st or 2nd place in 16 seats and the LibDems in 17 seats. The Scots Tories got 16.7% of the vote, lower than our share in the recent Euro elections. The LibDems got 18.9% of the vote, more than double their share in the recent Euro elections. Those 1st and 2nd places in 17 seats will come under fierce attack next May if the LibDems don't get back to around 15%.0
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Withdrawal to S&C would have to come before the last QS of this parliament, otherwise they are randomly withdrawing support from their own agreed programme, a catastrophically stupid thing to do.NickPalmer said:The issue here is the differentiation problem - people need some sort of emotional or intellectual attachment to keep voting for you, and if your only appeal is that someone else is even worse they probably won't bother. Innocent's suggestion of withdrawing to Confidence & Supply in the autumn is a possible strategy, but it would probably fail, because it immediately runs into two questions:
1. Why are you doing this now? What's got worse than last year?
Implied truthful answer: because we're about to ask for your votes.
2. If you no longer feel that you can support the government, are you ruling out a renewal of the Coalition after the election?
Answer; Well, no. We'll have to see, it depends on the figures, etc.
In combination, the two questions IMO would kill the differentiation factor and merely make people feel more cynical.
On Newark, replying to various posts: No, UKIP isn't yet doing efficient canvassing and postal vote recruitment, as reports of their campaign make clear - their approach is to have lots of activists and hope for the best. That said, the advantages of GOTV and an efficient ground war are significant but not massive - I'd guess they boost the vote by 2-3%, but they don't do miracles if the voters have had enough of you. The one poll so far does mathematically indicate a possible close race, though equally there could be a huge gap - with probably two more polls coming we should know much more by Monday.
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Woolie, Can only cross fingers and toes and hope for the bestdyedwoolie said:
Alexander is a goner. You'll have to prise Carmichael out with a crowbar, though!malcolmg said:
Woolie , hopefully both him and Alexander get what they deserve and are consigned to the dustbin where they belong.dyedwoolie said:
Oops, I meant Carmichael, not Thurso, got their seats mixed up!Easterross said:Woolie old bean, Danny has a better chance of holding than the noble Viscount as the non-LibDem vote in Invershneckie is more evenly divided.
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2000s, full employment (ish) and rising wages. Cheap Labour in the manner of the 50s Caribbean import was the natural way forward. But just like Capt EJ Smith in April 1912, everything they thought they knew was wrong.
Step forward, UKIP.0 -
Malc, if it comes to it, I'll go and stand in Orkney and Shetland on a 'come on, put them out of their misery' ticket ;-)malcolmg said:
Woolie, Can only cross fingers and toes and hope for the bestdyedwoolie said:
Alexander is a goner. You'll have to prise Carmichael out with a crowbar, though!malcolmg said:
Woolie , hopefully both him and Alexander get what they deserve and are consigned to the dustbin where they belong.dyedwoolie said:
Oops, I meant Carmichael, not Thurso, got their seats mixed up!Easterross said:Woolie old bean, Danny has a better chance of holding than the noble Viscount as the non-LibDem vote in Invershneckie is more evenly divided.
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Right. As my cleaner (Dad) has had the cheek to have his cataracts operated on, I've got to go and clean the lines AND the pub before the ravenous hordes descend.
I shall return to see where the political winds have blown us this afternoon.
Laters peebee peeps.0 -
Given that is Wednesday IIRC it's far too tight a timetable,dyedwoolie said:
Withdrawal to S&C would have to come before the last QS of this parliament, otherwise they are randomly withdrawing support from their own agreed programme, a catastrophically stupid thing to do.NickPalmer said:The issue here is the differentiation problem - people need some sort of emotional or intellectual attachment to keep voting for you, and if your only appeal is that someone else is even worse they probably won't bother. Innocent's suggestion of withdrawing to Confidence & Supply in the autumn is a possible strategy, but it would probably fail, because it immediately runs into two questions:
1. Why are you doing this now? What's got worse than last year?
Implied truthful answer: because we're about to ask for your votes.
2. If you no longer feel that you can support the government, are you ruling out a renewal of the Coalition after the election?
Answer; Well, no. We'll have to see, it depends on the figures, etc.
In combination, the two questions IMO would kill the differentiation factor and merely make people feel more cynical.
On Newark, replying to various posts: No, UKIP isn't yet doing efficient canvassing and postal vote recruitment, as reports of their campaign make clear - their approach is to have lots of activists and hope for the best. That said, the advantages of GOTV and an efficient ground war are significant but not massive - I'd guess they boost the vote by 2-3%, but they don't do miracles if the voters have had enough of you. The one poll so far does mathematically indicate a possible close race, though equally there could be a huge gap - with probably two more polls coming we should know much more by Monday.
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At the 2010 election the swings were LD to CON 1.4%, LAB to LD 3.8%.There were enough Labour seats vulnerable to the swing to LD offset any losses to the Cons but in fact numbers decreased from 62 to 57.So overall LD did slightly worse than UNS and not better as the incumbency effect would predict.
There are two other factors at play at the next election which are suggest a seat result worse that UNS. First retiring MP's.The incumbency premium disappears.So far the list includes( I think )Menzies Campbell,Malcolm Bruce,Alan Beith,Mike Hancock,David Heath,Sarah Teather and Annette brooks.Now depending on the UNS the majority would be lost anyway on UNS but the chances of holdsin Fife NE,Gordon and Portsmouth S are reduced.
The second problem is the tuition fees backlash. LD MP's Leeds NW,Bristol W,Cambridge Manchester Withington and even Sheffield Hallam may encounter a swing above UNS.
However the key will be UNS driven by the relative vote shares of the parties.here I am more optimistic.A year is a long time in politics.One side effect of being junior coalition partner is that the LD's have been less visible than when they were in opposition where they were asked for their views ona regular basis and were able to put forward a distinctive position.As we get nearer to the GE in 2015 they will have more chance to get across their achievements in government and hopefully clear radical policies such as continuing to increase the personal allowance( I would hope to £15000) which could attract back some deserters to Labour.
The low point is now.In May ICM the top GE polling company in 2010 had the LD's on 13%.I reckon that a 15% ICM figure going into the election is feasible.
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Meanwhile, the dispute over territory in the South China Sea (China are trying to use their power to grab land, or sea, which is rich in resources) now sees Japan aspiring to a more active role:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-276306040 -
Jack my dear friend, as the noble Viscount and I share both the same Sutherland and Sinclair lineage (as do Dave and Boris) and he is by far the least worst option, I shall be hoping to see C,S+ER remain yellow next year. As Tain is the senior and oldest Royal Burgh in North Britain, I would insist my quarters are despatched no further than the old boundaries of the Royal Immunity.JackW said:
I should advise you my noble Easterross that much like the days of old when discussing the death of the sovereign was an act of treason so it is with those considering the political death of the Viscount !!Easterross said:Woolie old bean, Danny has a better chance of holding than the noble Viscount as the non-LibDem vote in Invershneckie is more evenly divided.
For offenders it all gets very messy in the hanging, drawing and quartering department .... mind you you'd be able to see Inverness, Tain, Thurso and Fort William all in one go !!
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To an extent, I agree with you Jack, which is why I think the polls should amend their question to reference constituency - that should both help the Lib Dems' score and (more importantly) describe the picture more accurately.JackW said:...
[T]he LibDems the ICM "Wisdom Polling" is as good a guide as any to their likely national polling next year to which I'd add my own projection for a figure of around 14%. Even then a straight analysis is practically worthless without taking into account individual MP incumbency and Hotspot analysis.
...
The trick with LibDem seats is to determine in each seat whether the hotspot remains hot enough to outweigh any other factor.
However, they've been marooned on about 10% for well over three years, without even the fluctuation that the Conservatives have had. For example, YouGov have conducted getting on for a thousand polls in that time and every one has been in the 7-13 range. Likewise, and as I mentioned in the leader, the recent local and Euro polls are entirely consistent with a 9-10% Westminster national share (and that will take into account local factors). The Lib Dems may receive an election bonus but whether they do will depend to no small degree on whether UKIP are still winning the NOTA, on whether the debates take place again and if so, who's in them.
Ref the vote share / MPs figures, I agree that there's a loose relationship but there are boundaries. There comes a point where it's impossible to lose further vote share without losing MPs as the only votes you have to lose are those which got your MPs elected. For practical purposes, 9-10% is - in my opinion - some way the wrong side of it. They would stand a chance of holding most seats if they could get up to 14-15%. On the other hand, were they to drop further, you'd be looking at the kind of disaster they suffered in Scotland in 2011, without even the compensating factor of regional top-ups.
In fact, that Scottish example is instructive. Although the Lib Dems suffered their worst declines in proportional share of the vote in their worst seats (for example, Glasgow Pollok, where they dropped from 7% to 2.1% - a loss of seven in ten voters), in absolute terms, these were quite small swings. The reverse applied in their best seats (i.e. the ones they held): while they retained a greater share of their former support, the actual swings were bigger than the average. There was a really good analysis published on PBC though I can't find it.
The reverse is also true: there comes a point where you can't gain more votes without starting to win seats, and when you do, it'll be in large numbers. In a three-party system, as it was for the Liberal-SDP Alliance, that's probably around 30%; with four-plus parties, it'll be low-to-mid twenties - some way off UKIP Westminster polling but below their European election scores (which proves the point given how many districts they 'won').0 -
Thirty seats is a base from which to build a recovery. But the LDs are going to need some time to think through exactly what it is that they stand for. Being a halfway house is not going to work for them anymore.
I may be wrong, but from where I stand their best pitch is to be a party that is very pro-private sector, believes in a relatively small, highly decentralised state, and is uncompromising on civil liberties and equality; all bound up in a strong social conscience that goes beyond words and would not countenance measures that actively harm the vulnerable and the voiceless. No vested interests; no alliances (tacit or otherwise) with big business, big finance or big labour; and no compromises on fundamental values.
I suspect that the LDs have learned an awful lot from the last four years. They are going to pay a big price in 2015. But they could well emerge much the stronger a few years down the line. I hope so.0 -
These seats will have already faced their 40% loss in 2011.RochdalePioneers said:Forget Westminster, their problem is at the local level. Yes they lost 41% of seats held in this years local elections, and that's a catastrophe. But last year it was a similar picture. And the year before that. And the year before that. Indeed they have lost at least 20+% of seats held in every round of local elections since joining the government and next year they have a whopping 1038 up for reelection - so they'll lose 250 to 420 of them.
The LDs local election NEV results do suggest a further loss, but surely less than 40%.
2011: 16%
2012: 15%
2013: 13%
2014: 11%
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@Easterross
Dunrobin castle must be one of the most inappropriate names ever.
A few decades ago the owner and title holder sent out a begging letter to do restoration work, to the ancestors of those his family had kicked off the land to make way for sheep.
Stillrobin castle?0 -
This bloke is an absolute superstar:
http://notesfromnorthbritain.wordpress.com/2014/05/29/unanswered-questions/#comments
Will Project Fib engage? Don't hold your breath.0 -
The Conservatives can be good cop to UKIP's bad cop, rather as the UUP and DUP used to operate.SouthamObserver said:
Pretty much what I was saying on here a couple of weeks back. If the Tories are clever the rise of UKIP is a huge opportunity for them. They can pass the "nasty party" tag over to UKIP and tag towards the centre, where most voters sit. One thing is certain: trying to out-UKIP UKIP is impossible.antifrank said:Off topic, but very interesting, a left-of-centre view on David Cameron's apparent lack of travails:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/30/david-cameron-still-centre-every-political-storm
It's certainly true that UKIP's rise at least allows the Conservatives to triangulate and it helps their detoxification with centrist voters.
The comments are a good insight into the mindset of many coalition opponents. Fascinating that so many assume that David Cameron is thick in defiance of all available evidence.
That said, I am not sure that I would categorise anyone writing anonymous comments on newspaper message boards (or political ones like this!) as being representative of anything much.
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SO , the guy is a complete knob. His witterings are pathetic and just about what you would expect from a Tory bell end only interested in keeping the parasites in place.SouthamObserver said:This bloke is an absolute superstar:
http://notesfromnorthbritain.wordpress.com/2014/05/29/unanswered-questions/#comments
Will Project Fib engage? Don't hold your breath.
Your pathetic use of Project Fear demeans you and is extremely poor from a usually intelligent poster. Use of fake numbers is a pathetic last gasp attempt by Westminster to try and appeal to the base instincts of people.
Hopefully they will fail and people like this will never darken our doorstep again.
It is just a rehash of the lies from the Treasury , they were shot to pieces last week and had people laughing at them.0 -
I've ordered a stay of execution and added the proviso that you should only be beheaded with the Sword of State and duly spiked within Tain.Easterross said:
Jack my dear friend, as the noble Viscount and I share both the same Sutherland and Sinclair lineage (as do Dave and Boris) and he is by far the least worst option, I shall be hoping to see C,S+ER remain yellow next year. As Tain is the senior and oldest Royal Burgh in North Britain, I would insist my quarters are despatched no further than the old boundaries of the Royal Immunity.JackW said:
I should advise you my noble Easterross that much like the days of old when discussing the death of the sovereign was an act of treason so it is with those considering the political death of the Viscount !!Easterross said:Woolie old bean, Danny has a better chance of holding than the noble Viscount as the non-LibDem vote in Invershneckie is more evenly divided.
For offenders it all gets very messy in the hanging, drawing and quartering department .... mind you you'd be able to see Inverness, Tain, Thurso and Fort William all in one go !!
My beneficence knows no bounds .....
............................................................
Laters .....
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I haven't been posting much recently (by my own standards) and for the next two weeks I'm taking my finals. Wish me luck.0
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It looks as though the Lib Dems are polling right in (or at the bottom end of) a very interesting zone. Playing with numbers, you could plausibly argue the Cockroach Effect could work to 13%+
You'd have to come up with heroic assumptions (which, as David points out, aren't supported by existing local polls and results) to argue it down to 9%.
You simply couldn't mathematically argue it below 9%.
So - 13% and above and they MIGHT have a lot to play for. 9% and below and it's doom. Between 9-13% (which is where they seem to be hovering) and they're in a twilight zone where the slightest twitch up or down could imply several seats held or lost.
Given the MoE around even the most accurate opinion polls, this makes it incredibly difficult to see through.0 -
Mr. Grandiose, very best of luck to you.0
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Malcolm, my British brother, what has he got wrong?malcolmg said:
SO , the guy is a complete knob. His witterings are pathetic and just about what you would expect from a Tory bell end only interested in keeping the parasites in place.SouthamObserver said:This bloke is an absolute superstar:
http://notesfromnorthbritain.wordpress.com/2014/05/29/unanswered-questions/#comments
Will Project Fib engage? Don't hold your breath.
Your pathetic use of Project Fear demeans you and is extremely poor from a usually intelligent poster. Use of fake numbers is a pathetic last gasp attempt by Westminster to try and appeal to the base instincts of people.
Hopefully they will fail and people like this will never darken our doorstep again.
It is just a rehash of the lies from the Treasury , they were shot to pieces last week and had people laughing at them.
Are you going to get down to our part of the world again any time soon? Another evening with you and Mr Brooke would be something to look forward to. We can solve the problems of our Sceptred Isle over a few pints. England, Scotland and Northern Ireland working in harmony to create a better world!!
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Luck will not come into it. You will triumph.Grandiose said:I haven't been posting much recently (by my own standards) and for the next two weeks I'm taking my finals. Wish me luck.
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Useful to see the trend in NEV Dave. There maybe some hope in that in 97 and 2010 the party that lost national power gained cllr seats in that year of local elections. Maybe voters vented their anger at the governing party in locals pre a GE and then are more rational in the locals that year? But does it only apply to the main party and not the Lib Dems? We shall see.anotherDave said:
These seats will have already faced their 40% loss in 2011.RochdalePioneers said:Forget Westminster, their problem is at the local level. Yes they lost 41% of seats held in this years local elections, and that's a catastrophe. But last year it was a similar picture. And the year before that. And the year before that. Indeed they have lost at least 20+% of seats held in every round of local elections since joining the government and next year they have a whopping 1038 up for reelection - so they'll lose 250 to 420 of them.
The LDs local election NEV results do suggest a further loss, but surely less than 40%.
2011: 16% 2012: 15% 2013: 13% 2014: 11%
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Craig Woodhouse @craigawoodhouse 9m
With no sense of irony at all, @StephenTwigg tells #pac14 Ukip are offering "easy slogans in the midst of the cost-of-living crisis".0 -
Mr. Maaaarsh, now is not the time for soundbites, but I feel the hand of history on my shoulder.0
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It is noteworthy, the lack of support to the 4 female accusers of Rennard, from senior older female Lib Dems. Shirley Williams is the latest example in describing Rennard as "decent" and dismissing the matter as part of his "private life". Ignoring the clear facts by his own very slow admission. The allegations took place in his work life not in his private life Shirley!
Lady Williams told BBC Radio 4's Today programme the issue had been "hugely blown up".
"He was a very decent and loyal member of the party as the chief executive, he did huge amounts for the party," she said.
"And I think his private life... he has already apologised for, and that's fine.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-27647721
No wonder the Lib Dems have the smallest % of female MPs (of the main 3) with the attitudes of their senior female members. Where is Lynne, Lorely or Annette on this female matter?0 -
SouthamObserver said:
Malcolm, my British brother, what has he got wrong?malcolmg said:
SO , the guy is a complete knob. His witterings are pathetic and just about what you would expect from a Tory bell end only interested in keeping the parasites in place.SouthamObserver said:This bloke is an absolute superstar:
http://notesfromnorthbritain.wordpress.com/2014/05/29/unanswered-questions/#comments
Will Project Fib engage? Don't hold your breath.
Your pathetic use of Project Fear demeans you and is extremely poor from a usually intelligent poster. Use of fake numbers is a pathetic last gasp attempt by Westminster to try and appeal to the base instincts of people.
Hopefully they will fail and people like this will never darken our doorstep again.
It is just a rehash of the lies from the Treasury , they were shot to pieces last week and had people laughing at them.
Are you going to get down to our part of the world again any time soon? Another evening with you and Mr Brooke would be something to look forward to. We can solve the problems of our Sceptred Isle over a few pints. England, Scotland and Northern Ireland working in harmony to create a better world!!
LOL, unfortunately not travelling much at all these days, but would love to meet up again. I will do my best and will be in touch if coming down.0 -
Wasn't that because their position had improved somewhat from a nadir. If the Lib Dems don't improve from NEV this year and get 11% in locals next they will probably lose seats.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Useful to see the trend in NEV Dave. There maybe some hope in that in 97 and 2010 the party that lost national power gained cllr seats in that year of local elections. Maybe voters vented their anger at the governing party in locals pre a GE and then are more rational in the locals that year? But does it only apply to the main party and not the Lib Dems? We shall see.anotherDave said:
These seats will have already faced their 40% loss in 2011.RochdalePioneers said:Forget Westminster, their problem is at the local level. Yes they lost 41% of seats held in this years local elections, and that's a catastrophe. But last year it was a similar picture. And the year before that. And the year before that. Indeed they have lost at least 20+% of seats held in every round of local elections since joining the government and next year they have a whopping 1038 up for reelection - so they'll lose 250 to 420 of them.
The LDs local election NEV results do suggest a further loss, but surely less than 40%.
2011: 16% 2012: 15% 2013: 13% 2014: 11%0 -
Is not the point that the LDs will poll around 13%?
Against this why would sane people vote LD if it meant weakening the tories against UKIP and letting in labour. Lib dems may get squeezed as the centre vote to keep out Miliband and are agast at ukips extremism.0 -
Exactly. You debate with us - a notably critical audience some of whom have an interest in finding fault - with aplomb. You'll do fine!SouthamObserver said:
Luck will not come into it. You will triumph.Grandiose said:I haven't been posting much recently (by my own standards) and for the next two weeks I'm taking my finals. Wish me luck.
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SouthamObserver, you may see the sense of that but where will their next Leader come from and who makes up 2/3 of their members? The answer is the "heart beats on the left" group as exemplified by the social liberal group that has members jumping forward to attack Clegg. Many of them occupy key slots in their federal committees. The Lib Dems are going to go into a statist left wing mode to try and reclaim the lost 2010 voters. At a time when Labour has also gone left. Enticing them back is a forlorn hope when they lack the £ muscle that the unions provide to Labour. Now if Clegg had tackled party donations and reduced the unions to £50k... the future would look rosier.SouthamObserver said:.....I may be wrong, but from where I stand their best pitch is to be a party that is very pro-private sector, believes in a relatively small, highly decentralised state, and is uncompromising on civil liberties and equality; all bound up in a strong social conscience that goes beyond words and would not countenance measures that actively harm the vulnerable and the voiceless. No vested interests; no alliances (tacit or otherwise) with big business, big finance or big labour; and no compromises on fundamental values. ....
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Very best wishes Grandiose. I am sure you will be fine. Look forward to seeing you back here after a successful couple of weeks.Grandiose said:I haven't been posting much recently (by my own standards) and for the next two weeks I'm taking my finals. Wish me luck.
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One last observation before I head off cycling for the morning. While I was doing some research for the thread, I was looking at the last time the Lib Dems / Liberals polled in single figures per constituency contested. I don't think they ever have.
The 1950s are rightly regarded as the low point for the Yellows and in national terms, they didn't feature - very frequently quite literally. In 1951, they contested only 109 seats; in 1955, just one more. Even by 1970, they were standing in only half of the constituencies. True, those they did stand in were likely to be those they were strongest in and when the level to retain your deposit was 12.5%, that was a serious consideration.
Even so, while the Liberals' lowest ever share of the vote was about 2.5% in 1951, that's seriously distorts their popularity because of the small number of constituencies they stood in. To get an exact average vote share, you'd have to go through each result but as a rough figure, multiplying up by the ratio of seats existing to those contested, they averaged about 15% where they stood: not too bad.
On that basis, their lowest ever vote per constituency was 12% in 1950 and the next worst 14% in 1970.0 -
Interesting article on the new EU censorship laws.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/google/10866517/Right-to-be-forgotten-means-old-rules-of-the-Internet-no-longer-apply.html
Found this last paragraph particularly interesting.
"More than half of the UK requests to have information removed have to date come from convicted criminals, with an ex-MP seeking re-election also among the applicants to Google’s new service."
There can't be that many Ex-MPs seeking re-election next year. I wonder which one is embarrassed about their past and trying to cover it up? I am damn sure it is not our Nick as he has always been pretty open about all his activities so I wonder if we can work out which one it is?0 -
You'd want PR for that.Sean_F said:
The Conservatives can be good cop to UKIP's bad cop, rather as the UUP and DUP used to operate.SouthamObserver said:
Pretty much what I was saying on here a couple of weeks back. If the Tories are clever the rise of UKIP is a huge opportunity for them. They can pass the "nasty party" tag over to UKIP and tag towards the centre, where most voters sit. One thing is certain: trying to out-UKIP UKIP is impossible.antifrank said:Off topic, but very interesting, a left-of-centre view on David Cameron's apparent lack of travails:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/30/david-cameron-still-centre-every-political-storm
It's certainly true that UKIP's rise at least allows the Conservatives to triangulate and it helps their detoxification with centrist voters.
The comments are a good insight into the mindset of many coalition opponents. Fascinating that so many assume that David Cameron is thick in defiance of all available evidence.
That said, I am not sure that I would categorise anyone writing anonymous comments on newspaper message boards (or political ones like this!) as being representative of anything much.
On topic, of more concern to the Lib Dems than the voters who've switched to Labour is the number who voted for them last time now saying don't know. I'm also fascinated by how individual MPs might get a different personal vote. Will the likes of Laws and Alexander get treated differently to Hughes and Farron? Alexander's best hope it seems would be in getting Tory tactical votes. How Tories have not yet shown themselves prepared to vote tactically. A bigger point is that despite Clegg moving his party closer to the Tories he has completely failed to win over Tory switchers (more have gone the other way).0 -
It would be great if you could get down here. We can do taxis so me and AlanBrooke can have a few. Come before September and you won't need a passport!!malcolmg said:SouthamObserver said:
Malcolm, my British brother, what has he got wrong?malcolmg said:
SO , the guy is a complete knob. His witterings are pathetic and just about what you would expect from a Tory bell end only interested in keeping the parasites in place.SouthamObserver said:This bloke is an absolute superstar:
http://notesfromnorthbritain.wordpress.com/2014/05/29/unanswered-questions/#comments
Will Project Fib engage? Don't hold your breath.
Your pathetic use of Project Fear demeans you and is extremely poor from a usually intelligent poster. Use of fake numbers is a pathetic last gasp attempt by Westminster to try and appeal to the base instincts of people.
Hopefully they will fail and people like this will never darken our doorstep again.
It is just a rehash of the lies from the Treasury , they were shot to pieces last week and had people laughing at them.
Are you going to get down to our part of the world again any time soon? Another evening with you and Mr Brooke would be something to look forward to. We can solve the problems of our Sceptred Isle over a few pints. England, Scotland and Northern Ireland working in harmony to create a better world!!
LOL, unfortunately not travelling much at all these days, but would love to meet up again. I will do my best and will be in touch if coming down.
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I've always thought the Lib-Dems would receive some swingback and would ultimately poll around 15% at the general election - Perhaps losing half of their seats, but no worse than that.
However, I am starting to wonder whether they really could be heading 10% or lower and may be facing near oblivion?
The local elections weren't quite as bad as most recent local elections, so that does kind of back up the idea that the GE might not be quite as bad as expected, but then again the European elections and subsequent blood-letting has been very, very bad.0 -
Good morning. The debate on the L/dems in this thread is pretty mundane and now getting on boring, despite the Herds excellent background analysis. I mean the L'/Dems, come on........
Let me add a little fire and sparkle by going off thread.
"Meriam Ibrahim: Sudan death sentence condemned by UK leaders" flash the headline on the BBC web-site.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-27646747
Cammo and Co call the goings on barbaric. When oh when will somebody besides Kippers get the gumption to tell the truth and shout out loud that Sudan is itself barbaric. That many countries with a muslim majority, especially around the Horn of Africa, are barbaric in their laws and customs, and their level of civil discourse is the rock and the stone, when they haven't got an AK47 to hand.0 -
That would make a very interesting thread.Richard_Tyndall said:Interesting article on the new EU censorship laws.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/google/10866517/Right-to-be-forgotten-means-old-rules-of-the-Internet-no-longer-apply.html
Found this last paragraph particularly interesting.
"More than half of the UK requests to have information removed have to date come from convicted criminals, with an ex-MP seeking re-election also among the applicants to Google’s new service."
There can't be that many Ex-MPs seeking re-election next year. I wonder which one is embarrassed about their past and trying to cover it up? I am damn sure it is not our Nick as he has always been pretty open about all his activities so I wonder if we can work out which one it is?
My wild stab in the dark is Helen Clark nee Brinton0 -
A quick google search shows lots of news sites starting articles with the phraseHertsmere_Pubgoer said:
That would make a very interesting thread.Richard_Tyndall said:Interesting article on the new EU censorship laws.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/google/10866517/Right-to-be-forgotten-means-old-rules-of-the-Internet-no-longer-apply.html
Found this last paragraph particularly interesting.
"More than half of the UK requests to have information removed have to date come from convicted criminals, with an ex-MP seeking re-election also among the applicants to Google’s new service."
There can't be that many Ex-MPs seeking re-election next year. I wonder which one is embarrassed about their past and trying to cover it up? I am damn sure it is not our Nick as he has always been pretty open about all his activities so I wonder if we can work out which one it is?
My wild stab in the dark is Helen Clark nee Brinton
"A former MP seeking re-election and a convicted paedophile have already applied to Google to have details of their past removed from search"
If the name does come out it will look very bad for whoever it is being put in the same bracket as convicted paedophiles and other assorted criminals.0 -
@stephenkb: "Labour is heading for defeat," says Kellner, "Also, today is a Saturday." #pac14
@craigawoodhouse: Uncomfortable silence at #PAC14 as @YouGov president Peter Kellner sets out all the reasons why Labour can't win next year.0 -
Richard, a few weeks ago in The Sunday Times, the ex MP in question is trying to cover up the stories about their expenses.Richard_Tyndall said:
A quick google search shows lots of news sites starting articles with the phraseHertsmere_Pubgoer said:
That would make a very interesting thread.Richard_Tyndall said:Interesting article on the new EU censorship laws.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/google/10866517/Right-to-be-forgotten-means-old-rules-of-the-Internet-no-longer-apply.html
Found this last paragraph particularly interesting.
"More than half of the UK requests to have information removed have to date come from convicted criminals, with an ex-MP seeking re-election also among the applicants to Google’s new service."
There can't be that many Ex-MPs seeking re-election next year. I wonder which one is embarrassed about their past and trying to cover it up? I am damn sure it is not our Nick as he has always been pretty open about all his activities so I wonder if we can work out which one it is?
My wild stab in the dark is Helen Clark nee Brinton
"A former MP seeking re-election and a convicted paedophile have already applied to Google to have details of their past removed from search"
If the name does come out it will look very bad for whoever it is being put in the same bracket as convicted paedophiles and other assorted criminals.
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Are we allowed to mention who it is? Or would that draw the flaming Eye of Sauron towards the site?TheScreamingEagles said:
Richard, a few weeks ago in The Sunday Times, the ex MP in question is trying to cover up the stories about their expenses.Richard_Tyndall said:
A quick google search shows lots of news sites starting articles with the phraseHertsmere_Pubgoer said:
That would make a very interesting thread.Richard_Tyndall said:Interesting article on the new EU censorship laws.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/google/10866517/Right-to-be-forgotten-means-old-rules-of-the-Internet-no-longer-apply.html
Found this last paragraph particularly interesting.
"More than half of the UK requests to have information removed have to date come from convicted criminals, with an ex-MP seeking re-election also among the applicants to Google’s new service."
There can't be that many Ex-MPs seeking re-election next year. I wonder which one is embarrassed about their past and trying to cover it up? I am damn sure it is not our Nick as he has always been pretty open about all his activities so I wonder if we can work out which one it is?
My wild stab in the dark is Helen Clark nee Brinton
"A former MP seeking re-election and a convicted paedophile have already applied to Google to have details of their past removed from search"
If the name does come out it will look very bad for whoever it is being put in the same bracket as convicted paedophiles and other assorted criminals.0 -
Scott_P said:
@stephenkb: "Labour is heading for defeat," says Kellner, "Also, today is a Saturday." #pac14
@craigawoodhouse: Uncomfortable silence at #PAC14 as @YouGov president Peter Kellner sets out all the reasons why Labour can't win next year.
Does this mean Dan The Man has been right all along!!!!!
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If the media aren't going to mention that ex MP's name, then I don't think we should either.Richard_Tyndall said:
Are we allowed to mention who it is? Or would that draw the flaming Eye of Sauron towards the site?TheScreamingEagles said:
Richard, a few weeks ago in The Sunday Times, the ex MP in question is trying to cover up the stories about their expenses.Richard_Tyndall said:
A quick google search shows lots of news sites starting articles with the phraseHertsmere_Pubgoer said:
That would make a very interesting thread.Richard_Tyndall said:Interesting article on the new EU censorship laws.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/google/10866517/Right-to-be-forgotten-means-old-rules-of-the-Internet-no-longer-apply.html
Found this last paragraph particularly interesting.
"More than half of the UK requests to have information removed have to date come from convicted criminals, with an ex-MP seeking re-election also among the applicants to Google’s new service."
There can't be that many Ex-MPs seeking re-election next year. I wonder which one is embarrassed about their past and trying to cover it up? I am damn sure it is not our Nick as he has always been pretty open about all his activities so I wonder if we can work out which one it is?
My wild stab in the dark is Helen Clark nee Brinton
"A former MP seeking re-election and a convicted paedophile have already applied to Google to have details of their past removed from search"
If the name does come out it will look very bad for whoever it is being put in the same bracket as convicted paedophiles and other assorted criminals.0 -
Thanks! It wasn't. The Indy rang me up to ask - said they were working through the list of ex-MPs and I think my IT background made them think I might be a possibility. I told them that I'd be only too pleased if people bothered to look at my doings over the years, warts and all. Who wants to be forgotten?Richard_Tyndall said:Interesting article on the new EU censorship laws.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/google/10866517/Right-to-be-forgotten-means-old-rules-of-the-Internet-no-longer-apply.html
Found this last paragraph particularly interesting.
"More than half of the UK requests to have information removed have to date come from convicted criminals, with an ex-MP seeking re-election also among the applicants to Google’s new service."
There can't be that many Ex-MPs seeking re-election next year. I wonder which one is embarrassed about their past and trying to cover it up? I am damn sure it is not our Nick as he has always been pretty open about all his activities so I wonder if we can work out which one it is?
In any case I'm a bit sceptical about it working - say someone has a terrible expenses record, surely the opponents will remember even if Google blots out the references? And will the memory-blanking work for all the other search engines like Bing etc. too?
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Yes, I see what you mean.Richard_Tyndall said:
A quick google search shows lots of news sites starting articles with the phraseHertsmere_Pubgoer said:
That would make a very interesting thread.Richard_Tyndall said:Interesting article on the new EU censorship laws.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/google/10866517/Right-to-be-forgotten-means-old-rules-of-the-Internet-no-longer-apply.html
Found this last paragraph particularly interesting.
"More than half of the UK requests to have information removed have to date come from convicted criminals, with an ex-MP seeking re-election also among the applicants to Google’s new service."
There can't be that many Ex-MPs seeking re-election next year. I wonder which one is embarrassed about their past and trying to cover it up? I am damn sure it is not our Nick as he has always been pretty open about all his activities so I wonder if we can work out which one it is?
My wild stab in the dark is Helen Clark nee Brinton
"A former MP seeking re-election and a convicted paedophile have already applied to Google to have details of their past removed from search"
If the name does come out it will look very bad for whoever it is being put in the same bracket as convicted paedophiles and other assorted criminals.
I would guess that said Ex-MP will suffer a mega Streisand effect. If they do get selected to fight a seat, the associated negative publicity will blow their chances out of the water0 -
Presumably somebody will build a site in a non-EU jurisdiction allowing you to put in somebody's name and find out exactly what information they've had disappeared from Google.Richard_Tyndall said:Interesting article on the new EU censorship laws.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/google/10866517/Right-to-be-forgotten-means-old-rules-of-the-Internet-no-longer-apply.html
Found this last paragraph particularly interesting.
"More than half of the UK requests to have information removed have to date come from convicted criminals, with an ex-MP seeking re-election also among the applicants to Google’s new service."
There can't be that many Ex-MPs seeking re-election next year. I wonder which one is embarrassed about their past and trying to cover it up? I am damn sure it is not our Nick as he has always been pretty open about all his activities so I wonder if we can work out which one it is?
PS Is this case now over and definitive, or is it something that can be appealed somewhere else or reversed by legislation?0
