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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Unpicking the presidential election forecasts

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  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,344

    Agreed.

    But did you call for David Cameron to resign when the Finance Act overrode international law in 2013?
    The issue with The Finance Act is wholly different. Tory MP and lawyer Sir Bob Neil confirmed this on PM not ten minutes ago.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    Cyclefree said:

    Which is?
    To call the shots. Whatever the economic cost. We say who fishes in our waters. We say who can come to Britain. We say what they cultural rules are.

    Don't go to them with reasons why they might be worse off economically. They have no interest in those reasons. They made those trade offs years ago.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,331
    MrEd said:

    Err, no Kamski, calm now. The gun sales suggest that people are worried about crime so they are buying guns. A person who is worried enough about crime to buy a gun might be more receptive to a law and order message. 40% of gun purchases in May to July were made by first time buyers.

    Also - the biggest leap in gun ownership demographic was Black people at +58%. Are they buying guns because they are scared of the Police or because of crime?

    There is a worrying tendency to jump on any sort of reference point that goes against the Second Coming of the Messiah (i.e. Joe Biden) as though it is heresy.
    Yes, the argument that gun sales prove that Biden will win is about as convincing as the argument you made the other day that the Biden campaign buying ads in the Midwest proves that Trump will win.
  • The issue with The Finance Act is wholly different. Tory MP and lawyer Sir Bob Neil confirmed this on PM not ten minutes ago.
    How?

    Besides you liking one and not the other?
  • eekeek Posts: 29,744

    How?

    Besides you liking one and not the other?
    It was rectified before it became law - but keep trying to find something to defend the indefensible with.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,344

    How?

    Besides you liking one and not the other?
    Sir Bob Neil is the lawyer, not me, ask him!
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,808

    It looks like my employer has decided that 2 or 3 days per week in the office will become the 'New Normal'.

    It was my old normal, so fair enough.

    Looking like mine has decided on zero a week being optimal so doing the happy dance
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884
    kinabalu said:

    But what about the border in the island of Ireland?
    Yeah, it's a strange thing that the European Union should have a greater sense of responsibility for Northern Ireland, which isn't part of its territory, than the government of the so-called United KIngdom whose territory it is.

    And NI is a responsibility for the EU. It complicates things for them too.
  • kamski said:

    Yes, the argument that gun sales prove that Biden will win is about as convincing as the argument you made the other day that the Biden campaign buying ads in the Midwest proves that Trump will win.
    Just maybe the reason black Americans are buying more guns is the mobs of nazi militia wondering around cities rather than to show their support for Trump.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,292

    That graph is rather deceptive when you take into account the fact that later dates will have more as yet unreported deaths than earlier dates. If that graph is flat, then deaths must, in reality, be increasing.
    Apparently we have such a world beating Test and Trace that the rising numbers of cases identified are just better case finding. Or something. Certainly not relaxation of the night time economy and Rishi Meal Deals...
  • MangoMango Posts: 1,031

    A total misunderstanding of the politics of Britain. Let's say they got rid of Boris and called May back to negotiate some kind of client state agreement. A woman who took the tories to 17 per cent in the polls.

    Precisely where do you think that would leave the conservative party? A political corpse floating in the water, that's where.

    They could count on one thing over the next few years. Annihilation. And replacement by something much, much more radical.

    So if you want to make Nigel Farage's day, just carry on as you are.
    Oh no, my pandering to fascism is making people pander to fascism. The only way to fix it is to pander to fascism.

    The Brexit argument since the very beginning.
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