politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » While the nation has been enjoying Sunak’s half price food dea

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1291282214886477826

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1291281269414928384

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1291282214886477826

MaxPB said:

Also I've been looking into the city consensus for GDP next week, I think our estimates are much more pessimistic, the range is -10% to -14% with most coming in the upper tier at close to -10%, that would take the peak to trough drop to -16%, July has been pencilled in for +6% and August for something like +4% and I'm sticking in +3% for September. If the economy performs anywhere near that, we'd be up to 95% of peak GDP by the end of September. I have to say last night felt like things were closer to normal than most people realised.

Brining in flight restrictions from hot zones is an absolute must. People should not be allowed to arrive into the UK from any of the current red listed countries at all even if it means pissing off giant baby Trump and the airlines. The last thing we need is a bunch of irresponsible people going to India and Pakistan in October after monsoon season ends and coming back infected in December setting off a whole new wave.

Malmesbury said:

MaxPB said:

Also I've been looking into the city consensus for GDP next week, I think our estimates are much more pessimistic, the range is -10% to -14% with most coming in the upper tier at close to -10%, that would take the peak to trough drop to -16%, July has been pencilled in for +6% and August for something like +4% and I'm sticking in +3% for September. If the economy performs anywhere near that, we'd be up to 95% of peak GDP by the end of September. I have to say last night felt like things were closer to normal than most people realised.

Brining in flight restrictions from hot zones is an absolute must. People should not be allowed to arrive into the UK from any of the current red listed countries at all even if it means pissing off giant baby Trump and the airlines. The last thing we need is a bunch of irresponsible people going to India and Pakistan in October after monsoon season ends and coming back infected in December setting off a whole new wave.

What do you think of -

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53675467

??

SouthamObserver said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

SouthamObserver said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Foxy said:

SouthamObserver said:

squareroot2 said:

SouthamObserver said:

Scott_xP said:

OldKingCole said:

The answer has to be sort out trade agreements with everyone, and protect, so far as possible, the British economy. The trouble is that none of that is likely to be dramatic and eye-catching.

Oh, there will be eye-catching drama...

https://twitter.com/steverichards14/status/1291256678239932417

This thread tells us exactly why Johnson/Cummings are so keen to emasculate judicial review. Without it, it gets much easier to throw public money at their mates.

Sounds like libel to me. Hope you have deep pockets.

On what basis is it libel?

Indeed there is a pattern:

https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1291264253874380800?s=19

https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1290727606640357378?s=09

The pattern here is too upset the elite and it is working

The elite is loving it. This government of the elite is handing over public money left, right and centre to very wealthy, immensely privileged people. What’s to get upset about?

It has gone on in politics in all parties since politics began

I am not condoning it but am indicating that even beyond that the elite/establishment are seeing change that is driving them near insane.

How are Cummings, Johnson and co not part of the elite/establishment? They run the country!! They are currently in the process of centralising power and removing scrutiny. Where this ends is anyone’s guess, but up to now they are following the Orban/Erdogan playbook almost to the letter. If you don’t find that concerning, so be it - but let’s not pretend that when democracies break down it’s the existing elites that suffer.

SouthamObserver said:

Once judicial review is emasculated, there’ll be more of this, but we won’t get to know about it ...
https://twitter.com/peter_tl/status/1291278120117469185?s=21

OldKingCole said:

MaxPB said:

Also I've been looking into the city consensus for GDP next week, I think our estimates are much more pessimistic, the range is -10% to -14% with most coming in the upper tier at close to -10%, that would take the peak to trough drop to -16%, July has been pencilled in for +6% and August for something like +4% and I'm sticking in +3% for September. If the economy performs anywhere near that, we'd be up to 95% of peak GDP by the end of September. I have to say last night felt like things were closer to normal than most people realised.

Brining in flight restrictions from hot zones is an absolute must. People should not be allowed to arrive into the UK from any of the current red listed countries at all even if it means pissing off giant baby Trump and the airlines. The last thing we need is a bunch of irresponsible people going to India and Pakistan in October after monsoon season ends and coming back infected in December setting off a whole new wave.

You'll upset Priti P, going on like that!

OldKingCole said:

Apparently it's Cycle to Work day!

Fysics_Teacher said:

SouthamObserver said:

Once judicial review is emasculated, there’ll be more of this, but we won’t get to know about it ...
https://twitter.com/peter_tl/status/1291278120117469185?s=21

Those of us who remember April remember the huge scramble to get PPE when it turned out that everyone in the world was doing the same and that supplies the government thought it had secured ended up being diverted by other governments. Going through the full formal tending process when headlines were screaming that we had less than 24 hours of stock left was not going to happen. That corners got cut is not exactly a surprise.

I seem to remember a list of suppliers compiled by Labour where a significant number tuned out to be dodgy to say the least.

The fact that the stories about shortages which had been dominating the headlines went away almost overnight suggests that whatever they did worked.

Are we going to see similar complaints about the vaccines that the government is currently backing when some turn out to be useless I wonder?

kle4 said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1291281269414928384

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1291282214886477826

I think that first point is perfectly right, but I wonder if they truly have the guts to push it further when the effects become clear.

DavidL said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1291281269414928384

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1291282214886477826

It's extremely bold in a Yes Minister kind of way. In the 1930s large scale housebuilding was the key element of Keynes plan to get us out of recession. It just might happen again. Demand for housing is there. Whether the finance is has to be more open to question.

DavidL said:

MaxPB said:

DavidL said:

MaxPB said:

Also I've been looking into the city consensus for GDP next week, I think our estimates are much more pessimistic, the range is -10% to -14% with most coming in the upper tier at close to -10%, that would take the peak to trough drop to -16%, July has been pencilled in for +6% and August for something like +4% and I'm sticking in +3% for September. If the economy performs anywhere near that, we'd be up to 95% of peak GDP by the end of September. I have to say last night felt like things were closer to normal than most people realised.

Brining in flight restrictions from hot zones is an absolute must. People should not be allowed to arrive into the UK from any of the current red listed countries at all even if it means pissing off giant baby Trump and the airlines. The last thing we need is a bunch of irresponsible people going to India and Pakistan in October after monsoon season ends and coming back infected in December setting off a whole new wave.

And what do we do about the thousands of foreign students due to return over the next few weeks? Having worked so hard to limit the incidence of the virus in our own community this is an obvious and incredible risk. The Scottish government says it does not have the capacity to test them all. God alone knows why not. It should be mandatory if they are to attend classes.

That's easy, make them arrive two weeks before the start of term, test them on arrival and put them in forced quarantine if they have it. Students are very easy to track because of visa requirements.

It is easy. But its not being done. Its another big mistake coming down the track that no one in government is paying sufficient attention to.

Malmesbury said:

SouthamObserver said:

MaxPB said:

Hmm, I think national lockdowns are about to become a thing in a lot of European countries again. I'm surprised that Spain hasn't already implemented a full national lockdown the figures are very bad, they are looking at 4-6k new cases per day at the moment. Only the UK and Italy look like a second wave might not be as bad, it could be because both had such publicly awful initial outbreaks that tourists are avoiding them or people are too scared to travel.

Spain’s outbreaks remain very localised. Why shut down Extremadura if most of the problems are hundreds of miles to the north-east?

All of the recent European increases* are localised - at least that I am aware of. UK, France, Germany, Spain etc.

So local lockdowns are the pattern....

In the rush of positive/negative nationalism, it is often useful to step back and ask yourself - what is happening elsewhere?

*Not sure that "second wave" is the right term for "Increase on the tail end of epidemic curve". Like this -

GarethoftheVale2 said:

kle4 said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1291281269414928384

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1291282214886477826

I think that first point is perfectly right, but I wonder if they truly have the guts to push it further when the effects become clear.

Fundamentally, it is something the Tories need to do for their long term prospects as home owners are more likely to vote Tory but of course it risks upsetting current home owners and landlords

MaxPB said:

DavidL said:

MaxPB said:

DavidL said:

MaxPB said:

Also I've been looking into the city consensus for GDP next week, I think our estimates are much more pessimistic, the range is -10% to -14% with most coming in the upper tier at close to -10%, that would take the peak to trough drop to -16%, July has been pencilled in for +6% and August for something like +4% and I'm sticking in +3% for September. If the economy performs anywhere near that, we'd be up to 95% of peak GDP by the end of September. I have to say last night felt like things were closer to normal than most people realised.

Brining in flight restrictions from hot zones is an absolute must. People should not be allowed to arrive into the UK from any of the current red listed countries at all even if it means pissing off giant baby Trump and the airlines. The last thing we need is a bunch of irresponsible people going to India and Pakistan in October after monsoon season ends and coming back infected in December setting off a whole new wave.

And what do we do about the thousands of foreign students due to return over the next few weeks? Having worked so hard to limit the incidence of the virus in our own community this is an obvious and incredible risk. The Scottish government says it does not have the capacity to test them all. God alone knows why not. It should be mandatory if they are to attend classes.

That's easy, make them arrive two weeks before the start of term, test them on arrival and put them in forced quarantine if they have it. Students are very easy to track because of visa requirements.

It is easy. But its not being done. Its another big mistake coming down the track that no one in government is paying sufficient attention to.

I do wonder why it's not being done.

DavidL said:

MaxPB said:

DavidL said:

MaxPB said:

DavidL said:

MaxPB said:

Also I've been looking into the city consensus for GDP next week, I think our estimates are much more pessimistic, the range is -10% to -14% with most coming in the upper tier at close to -10%, that would take the peak to trough drop to -16%, July has been pencilled in for +6% and August for something like +4% and I'm sticking in +3% for September. If the economy performs anywhere near that, we'd be up to 95% of peak GDP by the end of September. I have to say last night felt like things were closer to normal than most people realised.

Brining in flight restrictions from hot zones is an absolute must. People should not be allowed to arrive into the UK from any of the current red listed countries at all even if it means pissing off giant baby Trump and the airlines. The last thing we need is a bunch of irresponsible people going to India and Pakistan in October after monsoon season ends and coming back infected in December setting off a whole new wave.

And what do we do about the thousands of foreign students due to return over the next few weeks? Having worked so hard to limit the incidence of the virus in our own community this is an obvious and incredible risk. The Scottish government says it does not have the capacity to test them all. God alone knows why not. It should be mandatory if they are to attend classes.

That's easy, make them arrive two weeks before the start of term, test them on arrival and put them in forced quarantine if they have it. Students are very easy to track because of visa requirements.

It is easy. But its not being done. Its another big mistake coming down the track that no one in government is paying sufficient attention to.

I do wonder why it's not being done.

My guess is that the Universities Minister is already panicking about the financial implications of a significant drop in the number of foreign students and does not want to do anything that might put them off.

Which is just stupid. We should be emphasising to those students that they are going to be safe here and having everyone in Halls tested and cleared before they take up occupancy is a key part of that.

Gallowgate said:

This planning policy is not going to benefit those in the red wall, where housing is already fairly cheap and new builds plentiful.

Its hard to see that this policy has any electoral value - although it could still be good despite that. I doubt it though.

MaxPB said:

DavidL said:

MaxPB said:

DavidL said:

MaxPB said:

DavidL said:

MaxPB said:

Also I've been looking into the city consensus for GDP next week, I think our estimates are much more pessimistic, the range is -10% to -14% with most coming in the upper tier at close to -10%, that would take the peak to trough drop to -16%, July has been pencilled in for +6% and August for something like +4% and I'm sticking in +3% for September. If the economy performs anywhere near that, we'd be up to 95% of peak GDP by the end of September. I have to say last night felt like things were closer to normal than most people realised.

Brining in flight restrictions from hot zones is an absolute must. People should not be allowed to arrive into the UK from any of the current red listed countries at all even if it means pissing off giant baby Trump and the airlines. The last thing we need is a bunch of irresponsible people going to India and Pakistan in October after monsoon season ends and coming back infected in December setting off a whole new wave.

And what do we do about the thousands of foreign students due to return over the next few weeks? Having worked so hard to limit the incidence of the virus in our own community this is an obvious and incredible risk. The Scottish government says it does not have the capacity to test them all. God alone knows why not. It should be mandatory if they are to attend classes.

That's easy, make them arrive two weeks before the start of term, test them on arrival and put them in forced quarantine if they have it. Students are very easy to track because of visa requirements.

It is easy. But its not being done. Its another big mistake coming down the track that no one in government is paying sufficient attention to.

I do wonder why it's not being done.

My guess is that the Universities Minister is already panicking about the financial implications of a significant drop in the number of foreign students and does not want to do anything that might put them off.

Which is just stupid. We should be emphasising to those students that they are going to be safe here and having everyone in Halls tested and cleared before they take up occupancy is a key part of that.

Yeah surely a testing on arrival scheme helps everyone to feel safe.

rkrkrk said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

SouthamObserver said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

SouthamObserver said:

Once judicial review is emasculated, there’ll be more of this, but we won’t get to know about it ...
https://twitter.com/peter_tl/status/1291278120117469185?s=21

Those of us who remember April remember the huge scramble to get PPE when it turned out that everyone in the world was doing the same and that supplies the government thought it had secured ended up being diverted by other governments. Going through the full formal tending process when headlines were screaming that we had less than 24 hours of stock left was not going to happen. That corners got cut is not exactly a surprise.

I seem to remember a list of suppliers compiled by Labour where a significant number tuned out to be dodgy to say the least.

The fact that the stories about shortages which had been dominating the headlines went away almost overnight suggests that whatever they did worked.

Are we going to see similar complaints about the vaccines that the government is currently backing when some turn out to be useless I wonder?

A deal brokered by a government adviser who advises the company’s board!

So he knew what he was talking about!

Seriously, getting PPE at that point was literal life and death stuff: speed was more important than anything else.

None of the PPE procured in this case seems to have been used because it turns out that buying it from a 100 quid company with no track record... didn't work.

Malmesbury said:

turbotubbs said:

Malmesbury said:

SouthamObserver said:

MaxPB said:

Hmm, I think national lockdowns are about to become a thing in a lot of European countries again. I'm surprised that Spain hasn't already implemented a full national lockdown the figures are very bad, they are looking at 4-6k new cases per day at the moment. Only the UK and Italy look like a second wave might not be as bad, it could be because both had such publicly awful initial outbreaks that tourists are avoiding them or people are too scared to travel.

Spain’s outbreaks remain very localised. Why shut down Extremadura if most of the problems are hundreds of miles to the north-east?

All of the recent European increases* are localised - at least that I am aware of. UK, France, Germany, Spain etc.

So local lockdowns are the pattern....

In the rush of positive/negative nationalism, it is often useful to step back and ask yourself - what is happening elsewhere?

*Not sure that "second wave" is the right term for "Increase on the tail end of epidemic curve". Like this -

As far as I am aware, no-one has defined what 'second-wave' means. Combine this with a scientifically challenged and mathematically ignorant media and every minor increase in detected cases (for whatever reason) has suddenly become the second wave. Clearly across Europe, lockdowns of varying degrees of harshness have been lifted and inevitably more interacting people means more chance for infections to spread. Pace Newsnight last night, so far, there is minimal evidence of an increase in serious cases leading to hospital/death. Long may that continue.

The reason that the recent increases have not led to increasing numbers of serious cases is probably this -



In recent weeks, the age profile of those infected has shifted massively towards the younger groups.

The problem is that, elsewhere (such as Florida), such rises have started among the young. So lots of cases, not too many hospitalisations. Then the epidemic pivots into the elderly.

That is why, across Europe (and around the world), there is an attempt to tread on these rises early.

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

Cant wait for developers to start building high-rise flats all over Epping, clad in Neon panels. @HYUFD will definitely appreciate that.

So long as they meet building regs that’s okay right? No need to be in keeping?

If you had bothered to read the plans which clearly you have not you would know development has to be in accordance with local plans and in zones assigned for development under those plans, Epping's Local Plan has already been done

Gallowgate said:

DavidL said:

Gallowgate said:

Interesting. Not in the manifesto? I thought FPTP protected us from policies not in the manifesto? Clearly not.

It's not been in the news much but there is apparently some bug going around that has caused some government policies to evolve somewhat since the election.

What has that got to do with planning policy? Come on @DavidL you’re better than this...

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1291232607552901122?s=20

Scott_xP said:

HYUFD said:

The Tory heartland and the largest percentage of Tory seats are still in the South of England outside London where housing is more expensive, not the Red Wall

That's the point.

A policy that depresses house prices in the Tory shires while making no difference "Up North" seems unlikely to go down well with Tory voters of either sort

Scott_xP said:

HYUFD said:

The Tory heartland and the largest percentage of Tory seats are still in the South of England outside London where housing is more expensive, not the Red Wall

That's the point.

A policy that depresses house prices in the Tory shires while making no difference "Up North" seems unlikely to go down well with Tory voters of either sort

IanB2 said:

I wouldn't fancy being a Tory councillor up for re-election in next year's Super Tuesday. Especially in the leafy home counties seats where the LibDems are potential challengers.

DavidL said:

Gallowgate said:

DavidL said:

Gallowgate said:

Interesting. Not in the manifesto? I thought FPTP protected us from policies not in the manifesto? Clearly not.

It's not been in the news much but there is apparently some bug going around that has caused some government policies to evolve somewhat since the election.

What has that got to do with planning policy? Come on @DavidL you’re better than this...

It means that the government is desperately searching around for ways to get the economy moving fast. Rishi's dishies is a good start but a housebuilding boom has real potential to get unemployment back down and investment up. The government wants to get anything in the road of that removed whether it was in the manifesto last year or not.

But thanks for the compliment.

OldKingCole said:

Apparently it's Cycle to Work day!

MaxPB said:

rkrkrk said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

SouthamObserver said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

SouthamObserver said:

Once judicial review is emasculated, there’ll be more of this, but we won’t get to know about it ...
https://twitter.com/peter_tl/status/1291278120117469185?s=21

Those of us who remember April remember the huge scramble to get PPE when it turned out that everyone in the world was doing the same and that supplies the government thought it had secured ended up being diverted by other governments. Going through the full formal tending process when headlines were screaming that we had less than 24 hours of stock left was not going to happen. That corners got cut is not exactly a surprise.

I seem to remember a list of suppliers compiled by Labour where a significant number tuned out to be dodgy to say the least.

The fact that the stories about shortages which had been dominating the headlines went away almost overnight suggests that whatever they did worked.

Are we going to see similar complaints about the vaccines that the government is currently backing when some turn out to be useless I wonder?

A deal brokered by a government adviser who advises the company’s board!

So he knew what he was talking about!

Seriously, getting PPE at that point was literal life and death stuff: speed was more important than anything else.

None of the PPE procured in this case seems to have been used because it turns out that buying it from a 100 quid company with no track record... didn't work.

Ultimately it was a punt, same as what the government are doing for vaccines. It went badly, countless others went well.

rkrkrk said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

SouthamObserver said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

SouthamObserver said:

Once judicial review is emasculated, there’ll be more of this, but we won’t get to know about it ...
https://twitter.com/peter_tl/status/1291278120117469185?s=21

Those of us who remember April remember the huge scramble to get PPE when it turned out that everyone in the world was doing the same and that supplies the government thought it had secured ended up being diverted by other governments. Going through the full formal tending process when headlines were screaming that we had less than 24 hours of stock left was not going to happen. That corners got cut is not exactly a surprise.

I seem to remember a list of suppliers compiled by Labour where a significant number tuned out to be dodgy to say the least.

The fact that the stories about shortages which had been dominating the headlines went away almost overnight suggests that whatever they did worked.

Are we going to see similar complaints about the vaccines that the government is currently backing when some turn out to be useless I wonder?

A deal brokered by a government adviser who advises the company’s board!

So he knew what he was talking about!

Seriously, getting PPE at that point was literal life and death stuff: speed was more important than anything else.

None of the PPE procured in this case seems to have been used because it turns out that buying it from a 100 quid company with no track record... didn't work.

turbotubbs said:

Malmesbury said:

SouthamObserver said:

MaxPB said:

Hmm, I think national lockdowns are about to become a thing in a lot of European countries again. I'm surprised that Spain hasn't already implemented a full national lockdown the figures are very bad, they are looking at 4-6k new cases per day at the moment. Only the UK and Italy look like a second wave might not be as bad, it could be because both had such publicly awful initial outbreaks that tourists are avoiding them or people are too scared to travel.

Spain’s outbreaks remain very localised. Why shut down Extremadura if most of the problems are hundreds of miles to the north-east?

All of the recent European increases* are localised - at least that I am aware of. UK, France, Germany, Spain etc.

So local lockdowns are the pattern....

In the rush of positive/negative nationalism, it is often useful to step back and ask yourself - what is happening elsewhere?

*Not sure that "second wave" is the right term for "Increase on the tail end of epidemic curve". Like this -

As far as I am aware, no-one has defined what 'second-wave' means. Combine this with a scientifically challenged and mathematically ignorant media and every minor increase in detected cases (for whatever reason) has suddenly become the second wave. Clearly across Europe, lockdowns of varying degrees of harshness have been lifted and inevitably more interacting people means more chance for infections to spread. Pace Newsnight last night, so far, there is minimal evidence of an increase in serious cases leading to hospital/death. Long may that continue.

Philip_Thompson said:

Gallowgate said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Gallowgate said:

Ironically the biggest complaint on various local Facebook groups from Tory/Brexit voters here in the NE is that “affordable housing” on new build estates is not. That is despite the NE having some of the cheapest housing in England.

They basically want more regulation, not less, to force developers into selling houses cheaper. I doubt a laissez-faire policy on planning is going to be popular or beneficial up here.

I know other parts of the country are different, but just a little anecdotal report from the coal face...

Regulations don't work to make homes cheaper. What works to make homes cheaper is actually quite simple: increasing supply faster than you increase demand.

I am of the belief that policies like Help To Buy as much as anything are the reason the red wall seats fell to the Tories. For years now up here in the North housebuilding has been going with lots of new developments that is enabling house prices to stay steady rather than rising and lots of new people getting onto the property ladder.

Ultimately it is in the long-term interests of the Labour Party to ensure the poor stay impoverished. It is in their interests to ensure they have a client state of voters that need their help.

Ultimately it is in the long-term interests of the Tory Party to get people out of poverty. To get the off requiring state support. To ensure that as many people as possible can own their own home and have shares in the economy.

Protecting the house prices of existing owners who want to pull the ladder up after them is both morally reprehensible and against the long-term interests of the party. Doing the right thing for the country and doing the right thing for the party are the same thing here.

That’s a lot of words to say very little. What point are you trying to make? I’m a huge believer in home ownership and you admitted that the North has seen a huge amount of house building in the last 20 years. My point is that people still complain they are too expensive, and want them cheaper. This is despite housing in the North (and in the North East especially) being some of the cheapest in England. I doubt this policy is going to lead to cheaper housing in the North.

The point I am making is getting people onto the housing ladder is the end goal - both for the country and the party.

I don't see why you say "admitted" that the North has seen a huge amount of house building. Absolutely it has, which is why the North has gone from rock solid Labour to huge swathes of the North ending up Tory. Yes Brexit and Corbyn played a factor but they simply amplified a trend that has been going on for a decade as home ownership rates picked up. It is fantastic news that there has been house building in the past and it needs to be continued and improved wherever possible.

Secondly yes cheaper housing is wanted and the way to get that is to clear regulatory burdens that prevent increasing supply. If this policy leads to more housing being built then the fundamental economic laws of supply and demand mean that there will be cheaper housing as a result. The only long term way to get cheaper housing is to increase supply - and that supply should be of good quality homes, not "affordable" homes that are tiny crap.

Scott_xP said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

Under those circumstances, yes it was. You buy as much as you can get hold of knowing that some might not work so that you have enough that does.

None of this shipment worked.

Speed was clearly not the most important factor in this purchasing decision.

"Hey kids, put on your safety specs for this next bit. I don't know if they work, but I got same day shipping..."

turbotubbs said:

Malmesbury said:

turbotubbs said:

Malmesbury said:

SouthamObserver said:

MaxPB said:

Hmm, I think national lockdowns are about to become a thing in a lot of European countries again. I'm surprised that Spain hasn't already implemented a full national lockdown the figures are very bad, they are looking at 4-6k new cases per day at the moment. Only the UK and Italy look like a second wave might not be as bad, it could be because both had such publicly awful initial outbreaks that tourists are avoiding them or people are too scared to travel.

Spain’s outbreaks remain very localised. Why shut down Extremadura if most of the problems are hundreds of miles to the north-east?

All of the recent European increases* are localised - at least that I am aware of. UK, France, Germany, Spain etc.

So local lockdowns are the pattern....

In the rush of positive/negative nationalism, it is often useful to step back and ask yourself - what is happening elsewhere?

*Not sure that "second wave" is the right term for "Increase on the tail end of epidemic curve". Like this -

As far as I am aware, no-one has defined what 'second-wave' means. Combine this with a scientifically challenged and mathematically ignorant media and every minor increase in detected cases (for whatever reason) has suddenly become the second wave. Clearly across Europe, lockdowns of varying degrees of harshness have been lifted and inevitably more interacting people means more chance for infections to spread. Pace Newsnight last night, so far, there is minimal evidence of an increase in serious cases leading to hospital/death. Long may that continue.

The reason that the recent increases have not led to increasing numbers of serious cases is probably this -



In recent weeks, the age profile of those infected has shifted massively towards the younger groups.

The problem is that, elsewhere (such as Florida), such rises have started among the young. So lots of cases, not too many hospitalisations. Then the epidemic pivots into the elderly.

That is why, across Europe (and around the world), there is an attempt to tread on these rises early.

Which is possibly an argument for the over 50's lockdown approach...

DavidL said:

geoffw said:

Ambrose fears the winding down of furlough.

Britain is heading for an unemployment crisis of Biblical proportions by the end of the year unless the Treasury's policy is torn up very soon.

Businesses will start "shedding" jobs rapidly in September as the furlough scheme dials down to 70pc of wages. It will reach a grim crescendo when support stops altogether at the end of October, long before the economy is in any fit state to absorb the army of unemployed.

“It is one of the biggest policy mistakes in modern British history,” said Nobel laureate Chris Pissarides from the London School of Economics.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/08/05/economic-consequences-mr-sunak/

Sigh. So the answer to avoiding a recession is that the government continues to pay more than half the workforce's wages indefinitely so that they can avoid doing productive work?

Yes, a hell of a lot of jobs are going to go. But extending the furlough scheme is not the answer. The answer is to facilitate work as much as possible given the virus, targeted help for specific sectors and government investment to spur demand where it is lacking.

Philip_Thompson said:

With lives on the line the government threw everything at getting supplies from wherever they could. Better to waste money on 10 shipments that fail while getting 40 that succeed, than to take your time identify which 40 shipments may succeed then belatedly order them only to find people are dead due to your tardiness.

Fysics_Teacher said:

Scott_xP said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

Seriously, getting PPE at that point was literal life and death stuff: speed was more important than anything else.

The story upthread is about buying PPE that doesn't work...

Speed is clearly not more important than "anything else"

I hope that isn't the scientific method you teach?

Under those circumstances, yes it was. You buy as much as you can get hold of knowing that some might not work so that you have enough that does.

Just like we are currently doing with the vaccine program.

You are making the best the enemy of the good.

Scott_xP said:

Philip_Thompson said:

With lives on the line the government threw everything at getting supplies from wherever they could. Better to waste money on 10 shipments that fail while getting 40 that succeed, than to take your time identify which 40 shipments may succeed then belatedly order them only to find people are dead due to your tardiness.

No

Buying stuff that doesn't work is not better than not having stuff that works.

In both cases you don't have stuff that works.

Anybody who died "while waiting for the right stuff" would have died anyway if you used the stuff that doesn't work.

In matters of life and death, getting it right really does matter.

Scott_xP said:

Philip_Thompson said:

With lives on the line the government threw everything at getting supplies from wherever they could. Better to waste money on 10 shipments that fail while getting 40 that succeed, than to take your time identify which 40 shipments may succeed then belatedly order them only to find people are dead due to your tardiness.

No

Buying stuff that doesn't work is not better than not having stuff that works.

In both cases you don't have stuff that works.

Anybody who died "while waiting for the right stuff" would have died anyway if you used the stuff that doesn't work.

In matters of life and death, getting it right really does matter.

Philip_Thompson said:

Gallowgate said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Gallowgate said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Gallowgate said:

Ironically the biggest complaint on various local Facebook groups from Tory/Brexit voters here in the NE is that “affordable housing” on new build estates is not. That is despite the NE having some of the cheapest housing in England.

They basically want more regulation, not less, to force developers into selling houses cheaper. I doubt a laissez-faire policy on planning is going to be popular or beneficial up here.

I know other parts of the country are different, but just a little anecdotal report from the coal face...

Regulations don't work to make homes cheaper. What works to make homes cheaper is actually quite simple: increasing supply faster than you increase demand.

I am of the belief that policies like Help To Buy as much as anything are the reason the red wall seats fell to the Tories. For years now up here in the North housebuilding has been going with lots of new developments that is enabling house prices to stay steady rather than rising and lots of new people getting onto the property ladder.

Ultimately it is in the long-term interests of the Labour Party to ensure the poor stay impoverished. It is in their interests to ensure they have a client state of voters that need their help.

Ultimately it is in the long-term interests of the Tory Party to get people out of poverty. To get the off requiring state support. To ensure that as many people as possible can own their own home and have shares in the economy.

Protecting the house prices of existing owners who want to pull the ladder up after them is both morally reprehensible and against the long-term interests of the party. Doing the right thing for the country and doing the right thing for the party are the same thing here.

That’s a lot of words to say very little. What point are you trying to make? I’m a huge believer in home ownership and you admitted that the North has seen a huge amount of house building in the last 20 years. My point is that people still complain they are too expensive, and want them cheaper. This is despite housing in the North (and in the North East especially) being some of the cheapest in England. I doubt this policy is going to lead to cheaper housing in the North.

The point I am making is getting people onto the housing ladder is the end goal - both for the country and the party.

I don't see why you say "admitted" that the North has seen a huge amount of house building. Absolutely it has, which is why the North has gone from rock solid Labour to huge swathes of the North ending up Tory. Yes Brexit and Corbyn played a factor but they simply amplified a trend that has been going on for a decade as home ownership rates picked up. It is fantastic news that there has been house building in the past and it needs to be continued and improved wherever possible.

Secondly yes cheaper housing is wanted and the way to get that is to clear regulatory burdens that prevent increasing supply. If this policy leads to more housing being built then the fundamental economic laws of supply and demand mean that there will be cheaper housing as a result. The only long term way to get cheaper housing is to increase supply - and that supply should be of good quality homes, not "affordable" homes that are tiny crap.

I can tell you already that if there are no regulations, the houses that get built will be tiny, ugly, crap. Why wouldn’t they? They sell regardless.

My new build housing estate is beautiful only because the council forced the developer to make it “in keeping” with the village. The one just down the road had no such requirement and its ugly as sin. They still sell every single one.

All your opinions on this matter come from “economic theory” rather than any actual first hand experience in this area. Real life doesn’t work the same as a text book.

No my opinions on this come from both economic theory and from living in the North and from having in the last decade bought a new build home on a new build estate. Though my circumstances changed so we subsequently sold the home and now live on rented accommodation and are now trying to save for a deposit to try and get back on the property ladder and would like the opportunity to again buy a new home if possible. That's pretty first hand experience.

rkrkrk said:

MaxPB said:

rkrkrk said:

MaxPB said:

rkrkrk said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

SouthamObserver said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

SouthamObserver said:

Once judicial review is emasculated, there’ll be more of this, but we won’t get to know about it ...
https://twitter.com/peter_tl/status/1291278120117469185?s=21

Those of us who remember April remember the huge scramble to get PPE when it turned out that everyone in the world was doing the same and that supplies the government thought it had secured ended up being diverted by other governments. Going through the full formal tending process when headlines were screaming that we had less than 24 hours of stock left was not going to happen. That corners got cut is not exactly a surprise.

I seem to remember a list of suppliers compiled by Labour where a significant number tuned out to be dodgy to say the least.

The fact that the stories about shortages which had been dominating the headlines went away almost overnight suggests that whatever they did worked.

Are we going to see similar complaints about the vaccines that the government is currently backing when some turn out to be useless I wonder?

A deal brokered by a government adviser who advises the company’s board!

So he knew what he was talking about!

Seriously, getting PPE at that point was literal life and death stuff: speed was more important than anything else.

None of the PPE procured in this case seems to have been used because it turns out that buying it from a 100 quid company with no track record... didn't work.

Ultimately it was a punt, same as what the government are doing for vaccines. It went badly, countless others went well.

To my knowledge we aren't throwing 100m+ quid at a vaccine company with no track record set up by a Ministerial adviser this year.

I get that govt should take risks and not be afraid to waste money.

And fine for normal procurement to be suspended in an emergency. But handing this contract to one of your advisers is.... pretty dubious to say this least.

We are, the Moderna vaccine is a whole new type and has never previously been proven to work. Even the Oxford vaccine is fairly novel. Literally we're hoping to strike lucky and buying up options for things that have never been tried before. It's still the right thing to do.

Of course they are novel, but they're all researched by proper scientists with phds working at universities or biotech companies with a track record.

Fysics_Teacher said:

SouthamObserver said:

Once judicial review is emasculated, there’ll be more of this, but we won’t get to know about it ...
https://twitter.com/peter_tl/status/1291278120117469185?s=21

Those of us who remember April remember the huge scramble to get PPE when it turned out that everyone in the world was doing the same and that supplies the government thought it had secured ended up being diverted by other governments. Going through the full formal tending process when headlines were screaming that we had less than 24 hours of stock left was not going to happen. That corners got cut is not exactly a surprise.

I seem to remember a list of suppliers compiled by Labour where a significant number tuned out to be dodgy to say the least.

The fact that the stories about shortages which had been dominating the headlines went away almost overnight suggests that whatever they did worked.

Are we going to see similar complaints about the vaccines that the government is currently backing when some turn out to be useless I wonder?

Nigelb said:

MaxPB said:

rkrkrk said:

MaxPB said:

rkrkrk said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

SouthamObserver said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

SouthamObserver said:

Once judicial review is emasculated, there’ll be more of this, but we won’t get to know about it ...
https://twitter.com/peter_tl/status/1291278120117469185?s=21

Those of us who remember April remember the huge scramble to get PPE when it turned out that everyone in the world was doing the same and that supplies the government thought it had secured ended up being diverted by other governments. Going through the full formal tending process when headlines were screaming that we had less than 24 hours of stock left was not going to happen. That corners got cut is not exactly a surprise.

I seem to remember a list of suppliers compiled by Labour where a significant number tuned out to be dodgy to say the least.

The fact that the stories about shortages which had been dominating the headlines went away almost overnight suggests that whatever they did worked.

Are we going to see similar complaints about the vaccines that the government is currently backing when some turn out to be useless I wonder?

A deal brokered by a government adviser who advises the company’s board!

So he knew what he was talking about!

Seriously, getting PPE at that point was literal life and death stuff: speed was more important than anything else.

None of the PPE procured in this case seems to have been used because it turns out that buying it from a 100 quid company with no track record... didn't work.

Ultimately it was a punt, same as what the government are doing for vaccines. It went badly, countless others went well.

To my knowledge we aren't throwing 100m+ quid at a vaccine company with no track record set up by a Ministerial adviser this year.

I get that govt should take risks and not be afraid to waste money.

And fine for normal procurement to be suspended in an emergency. But handing this contract to one of your advisers is.... pretty dubious to say this least.

We are, the Moderna vaccine is a whole new type and has never previously been proven to work. Even the Oxford vaccine is fairly novel. Literally we're hoping to strike lucky and buying up options for things that have never been tried before. It's still the right thing to do.

You're talking about two different things, though.
In the vaccine cases, both vaccines are technologies which have been a decade in development, not something sketched on the back of a fag packet.

Granted, there are considerable risks involved (particularly with the Moderna effort) - the largest being that they simply don't work - but thus far it looks as though both might well pay off.

The story of Moderna getting US funding to put its program into action is an interesting one - basically meant selling a science project to an ignoramus, which they did rather effectively:
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/01/us/coronavirus-moderna-vaccine-invs/index.html
(note, there's an error in that piece: the Regeneron treatment is manufactured antibodies, not a vaccine.)

Gallowgate said:

MaxPB said:

rkrkrk said:

MaxPB said:

rkrkrk said:

MaxPB said:

rkrkrk said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

SouthamObserver said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

SouthamObserver said:

Once judicial review is emasculated, there’ll be more of this, but we won’t get to know about it ...
https://twitter.com/peter_tl/status/1291278120117469185?s=21

Those of us who remember April remember the huge scramble to get PPE when it turned out that everyone in the world was doing the same and that supplies the government thought it had secured ended up being diverted by other governments. Going through the full formal tending process when headlines were screaming that we had less than 24 hours of stock left was not going to happen. That corners got cut is not exactly a surprise.

I seem to remember a list of suppliers compiled by Labour where a significant number tuned out to be dodgy to say the least.

The fact that the stories about shortages which had been dominating the headlines went away almost overnight suggests that whatever they did worked.

Are we going to see similar complaints about the vaccines that the government is currently backing when some turn out to be useless I wonder?

A deal brokered by a government adviser who advises the company’s board!

So he knew what he was talking about!

Seriously, getting PPE at that point was literal life and death stuff: speed was more important than anything else.

None of the PPE procured in this case seems to have been used because it turns out that buying it from a 100 quid company with no track record... didn't work.

Ultimately it was a punt, same as what the government are doing for vaccines. It went badly, countless others went well.

To my knowledge we aren't throwing 100m+ quid at a vaccine company with no track record set up by a Ministerial adviser this year.

I get that govt should take risks and not be afraid to waste money.

And fine for normal procurement to be suspended in an emergency. But handing this contract to one of your advisers is.... pretty dubious to say this least.

We are, the Moderna vaccine is a whole new type and has never previously been proven to work. Even the Oxford vaccine is fairly novel. Literally we're hoping to strike lucky and buying up options for things that have never been tried before. It's still the right thing to do.

Of course they are novel, but they're all researched by proper scientists with phds working at universities or biotech companies with a track record.

Moderna has no track record, BioNTech has no track record. They've never had a single successful vaccine. Yet we've spent billions securing tens of millions of doses.

BioNTech has no track record with what? I used to design products for them ffs. They are a well respected biopharma company.