politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Monday night PB Nighthawks Café

IshmaelZ said:

Gallowgate said:

IshmaelZ said:

Gallowgate said:

IshmaelZ said:

Charles said:

isam said:

Gallowgate said:

The killers have been convicted of unlawfully killing her son, and will hopefully get life in prison. Not sure what the issue is to be honest.

Well it seems to me, from my ability to read words, the issue for the mother is that the jury accepted the killers didn’t know the deceased was attached to the car they were driving

Not quite.

The jury decided that the prosecution failed to prove that the killers intended to kill the policeman.

Their defence was, essentially, they were trying to shake him loose and didn’t care if he was injured in the process.

I’m not sure how you could prove intent in that situation - the facts are not in doubt but you are trying to determine motive.

What? Where are you getting that? Every report i have seen states that their defence was that they did not know he was there.

It doesn’t matter what their defence was. What matters was whether the prosecution could prove intent beyond reasonable doubt. Being reckless to the possibility of death is not enough for murder.

I am pleased and impressed by your success in your recent exams, but you don't actually need to explain the law to me. In this case it matters a great deal because it is, quite obviously, easier to prove that x intended a result if he has admitted that he knew the result was a physical possibility than if he hasn't admitted that.

Of course you’re right, and I’m not trying to claim to be an expert, but surely it being “easier to prove” is not the same as actually proving it?

If I was on the jury, I’d find it difficult to decide definitely that someone intended a consequence beyond all reasonable doubt, when I could be sure that they recklessly ignored the possibility ie manslaughter.

Sure, but jurors manage it sometimes. If they didn’t there would be no murder convictions.

I’m not sure that follows. If you stab someone with a knife, it’s obvious that there was an intent to cause really serious harm. Likewise if you shoot someone. In this situation, the intent is less obvious.

IshmaelZ said:

Gallowgate said:

IshmaelZ said:

Gallowgate said:

IshmaelZ said:

Charles said:

isam said:

Gallowgate said:

The killers have been convicted of unlawfully killing her son, and will hopefully get life in prison. Not sure what the issue is to be honest.

Well it seems to me, from my ability to read words, the issue for the mother is that the jury accepted the killers didn’t know the deceased was attached to the car they were driving

Not quite.

The jury decided that the prosecution failed to prove that the killers intended to kill the policeman.

Their defence was, essentially, they were trying to shake him loose and didn’t care if he was injured in the process.

I’m not sure how you could prove intent in that situation - the facts are not in doubt but you are trying to determine motive.

What? Where are you getting that? Every report i have seen states that their defence was that they did not know he was there.

It doesn’t matter what their defence was. What matters was whether the prosecution could prove intent beyond reasonable doubt. Being reckless to the possibility of death is not enough for murder.

I am pleased and impressed by your success in your recent exams, but you don't actually need to explain the law to me. In this case it matters a great deal because it is, quite obviously, easier to prove that x intended a result if he has admitted that he knew the result was a physical possibility than if he hasn't admitted that.

Of course you’re right, and I’m not trying to claim to be an expert, but surely it being “easier to prove” is not the same as actually proving it?

If I was on the jury, I’d find it difficult to decide definitely that someone intended a consequence beyond all reasonable doubt, when I could be sure that they recklessly ignored the possibility ie manslaughter.

Sure, but jurors manage it sometimes. If they didn’t there would be no murder convictions.

If PC Harper had got to the yard and they had hit him with a crowbar that would have been murder even if they had not had the direct intention to kill. In this case they can plead ignorance (didn’t know he was there) or stupidity (trying to shake him off) and it’s very difficult to prove beyond reasonable doubt that then has the intention to kill.

Murder, rightly, is a high bar

Speaking of enthusiasm re: US presidential election, note states with highest estimated share of campaign donors per 100,000 population (US average 860/10k)

Over 200 - District of Columbia
110 to 199
Colorado, Delaware, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Oregon, Washington, Vermont
100 to 109 - Arizona, California, Connecticut, Florida, Maine, Maryland, New Mexico, Virginia

Zero reliably Republican states. And only 3 toss-ups: AZ, FL, NH

https://i.redd.it/7fmw5wpbyed51.png

TimT said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Here's some material for you nighthawks to ponder. Doesn't quite match the politically-motivated preconception, does it?

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1287828014282268673
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1287828432429166594

So it says Germans rent houses and buy nice cars, and Brits buy houses and old bangers?

And that Sweden’s stats are distorted by the Wallenbergs

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Charles said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Charles said:

rcs1000 said:

Charles said:

Report from yesterday’s LA flight:

- 2 business class passengers
- 5 premium economy (inc me)
- 18 economy

BA not making money on what used to be a reliably profitable route

Flying to LA?

How did you get in?

🤫

I can be very persuasive when I want to be. Are you licensed in CA yet? I need insurance for my car and Progressive being slow

Heck, you don't need no stinkin's insurance, Boss. Just go see my good friend Lazlo at his "office" out behind the Buena Park Wal-Mart. Bring $50 in quarters and tell 'em Sea Shanty sent yez!

Doll, the Daily Mail would just love to splash a story on me

Don’t want to give them any ammunition

You need ammo? Lazlo can help with that too!

As for ink-splattered wretches of the Isle of Dogs or wherever they concoct their rags, how's about you & me split the check - in return, I'll make sure the paparazzi get yer good side (if any).

Nah - we had a deal with Vere that’s been good so far, although his boy’s been a little less diligent on enforcing the arrangement.

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Charles said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Charles said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Charles said:

rcs1000 said:

Charles said:

Report from yesterday’s LA flight:

- 2 business class passengers
- 5 premium economy (inc me)
- 18 economy

BA not making money on what used to be a reliably profitable route

Flying to LA?

How did you get in?

🤫

I can be very persuasive when I want to be. Are you licensed in CA yet? I need insurance for my car and Progressive being slow

Heck, you don't need no stinkin's insurance, Boss. Just go see my good friend Lazlo at his "office" out behind the Buena Park Wal-Mart. Bring $50 in quarters and tell 'em Sea Shanty sent yez!

Doll, the Daily Mail would just love to splash a story on me

Don’t want to give them any ammunition

You need ammo? Lazlo can help with that too!

As for ink-splattered wretches of the Isle of Dogs or wherever they concoct their rags, how's about you & me split the check - in return, I'll make sure the paparazzi get yer good side (if any).

Nah - we had a deal with Vere that’s been good so far, although his boy’s been a little less diligent on enforcing the arrangement.

Yer a bigger fish than I thought. Maybe yez can get me in touch with some ambitious sub-editor, have an inside source with Harry & Meghan - turns out me ex-girlfriend's former boyfriend's aunt used to date the sister of the brother-in-law of a maiden lady from Kamloops who does her Duchesses dainties

Seems this lady, when sober, has some shocking tales of embarrassing stains on the Royal Family's unmentionables. Could be worth a pretty loonie, guv!

Nah, not a big fish at all.

I’m just the second son. Gives me scope to spend time with my wife in California. Much more fun (although as a ginger I need to watch the sun) than minding the family shop back home

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Charles said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Charles said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Charles said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Charles said:

rcs1000 said:

Charles said:

Report from yesterday’s LA flight:

- 2 business class passengers
- 5 premium economy (inc me)
- 18 economy

BA not making money on what used to be a reliably profitable route

Flying to LA?

How did you get in?

🤫

I can be very persuasive when I want to be. Are you licensed in CA yet? I need insurance for my car and Progressive being slow

Heck, you don't need no stinkin's insurance, Boss. Just go see my good friend Lazlo at his "office" out behind the Buena Park Wal-Mart. Bring $50 in quarters and tell 'em Sea Shanty sent yez!

Doll, the Daily Mail would just love to splash a story on me

Don’t want to give them any ammunition

You need ammo? Lazlo can help with that too!

As for ink-splattered wretches of the Isle of Dogs or wherever they concoct their rags, how's about you & me split the check - in return, I'll make sure the paparazzi get yer good side (if any).

Nah - we had a deal with Vere that’s been good so far, although his boy’s been a little less diligent on enforcing the arrangement.

Yer a bigger fish than I thought. Maybe yez can get me in touch with some ambitious sub-editor, have an inside source with Harry & Meghan - turns out me ex-girlfriend's former boyfriend's aunt used to date the sister of the brother-in-law of a maiden lady from Kamloops who does her Duchesses dainties

Seems this lady, when sober, has some shocking tales of embarrassing stains on the Royal Family's unmentionables. Could be worth a pretty loonie, guv!

Nah. I’m just the second son. Gives me scope to spend time with my wife in California. Much more fun (although as a ginger I need to watch the sun) than minding the family shop back home

You burst my bubble - had imagined you living the glamorous life of James Bond. Or maybe Mick Jagger's chiropractor. Anyway, have fun AND stay safe in Cali!

I never said I didn’t live an international life of mystery.. I make a living opening my little black book and solving problems for people.

Charles said:

rcs1000 said:

Charles said:

Report from yesterday’s LA flight:

- 2 business class passengers
- 5 premium economy (inc me)
- 18 economy

BA not making money on what used to be a reliably profitable route

Flying to LA?

How did you get in?

🤫

I can be very persuasive when I want to be. Are you licensed in CA yet? I need insurance for my car and Progressive being slow

You're not allowed to use driving data to set insurance rates in California, because that would be discriminatory.

rcs1000 said:

Charles said:

rcs1000 said:

Charles said:

Report from yesterday’s LA flight:

- 2 business class passengers
- 5 premium economy (inc me)
- 18 economy

BA not making money on what used to be a reliably profitable route

Flying to LA?

How did you get in?

🤫

I can be very persuasive when I want to be. Are you licensed in CA yet? I need insurance for my car and Progressive being slow

You're not allowed to use driving data to set insurance rates in California, because that would be discriminatory.

I forgot my adopted state was a bit silly sometimes

US INVASION OF CANADA

CBC - An American man is in custody after police allege he illegally jumped the border then tried to evade officers by floating down a river in British Columbia.

The RCMP said in a news release that officers in Grand Forks, B.C., arrested the Washington state man after he led police on a two and a half hour-long "float chase" down the Kettle River.

The Mounties say they were advised by the Stevens County Sheriff's Office in the early hours of Friday morning that a stolen vehicle had entered Canada illegally at the closed Port Cascade border.

They say U.S. officials deployed a spike belt but the suspect continued to drive, ramming through barriers at the border before dumping the vehicle and fleeing on foot into Canada.

Later that day, the man was spotted returning to the abandoned vehicle but officers say he resisted arrest and jumped in the river.

They say RCMP officers tracked the man by walking along the riverbank and wading into the water where it narrowed, escorting the man to shore along with the help of some Good Samaritans.

The man was turned over to the Canada Border Service Agency Saturday.

RCMP say they are working with border officials on possible charges under the Immigration and Refugee Protection Act and the Criminal Code of Canada.

"This was an exceptional response from many involved including the Grand Forks and Midway officers who tracked the male for 2.5 hours, the Grand Forks Fire Department, BC Emergency Health Services and local search and rescue personnel," Sgt. Darryl Peppler said in the release.

"We would like to thank the Good Samaritans who assisted us in helping to safely escort this male to shore where he could be taken into custody."

Charles said:

rcs1000 said:

Charles said:

rcs1000 said:

Charles said:

Report from yesterday’s LA flight:

- 2 business class passengers
- 5 premium economy (inc me)
- 18 economy

BA not making money on what used to be a reliably profitable route

Flying to LA?

How did you get in?

🤫

I can be very persuasive when I want to be. Are you licensed in CA yet? I need insurance for my car and Progressive being slow

You're not allowed to use driving data to set insurance rates in California, because that would be discriminatory.

I forgot my adopted state was a bit silly sometimes

When they decided to regulate auto insurance, instead of saying that you aren't allowed to use certain factors - such as sex or credit rating - they instead said you're only allowed to use the following four factors:

- years since licensed
- zip code
- miles driven
- accident and violations

The consequence of this is that zip codes play a ridiculous role in setting auto insurance premiums, and crossing the street can see your rate double or halve. This, of course, means that instead of being less discriminatory (allegedly the goal), auto insurance is now ridiculously discriminatory.

rcs1000 said:

Charles said:

williamglenn said:

Charles said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Charles said:

rcs1000 said:

Charles said:

Report from yesterday’s LA flight:

- 2 business class passengers
- 5 premium economy (inc me)
- 18 economy

BA not making money on what used to be a reliably profitable route

Flying to LA?

How did you get in?

🤫

I can be very persuasive when I want to be. Are you licensed in CA yet? I need insurance for my car and Progressive being slow

Heck, you don't need no stinkin's insurance, Boss. Just go see my good friend Lazlo at his "office" out behind the Buena Park Wal-Mart. Bring $50 in quarters and tell 'em Sea Shanty sent yez!

Doll, the Daily Mail would just love to splash a story on me

Don’t want to give them any ammunition

Whatever you do, don't go near the Kardashians.

Ugh no. I might catch *********

is "*********" code for "up with Meghan"?

Nah was planning to see them in London but doubt they will come until quarantine sorted. Apparently, they don’t want to be stuck indoors with their family for 2 weeks.

https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1287693638890332160