politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov’s Chris Curtis has this right on Farage

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

houndtang said:

Mexicanpete said:

houndtang said:

Mexicanpete said:

MarqueeMark said:

Mexicanpete said:

MarqueeMark said:

Ave_it said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Ave_it said:

RobD said:

But is it in proportion? He was hours away from being out of it anyway...

Farage did nothing wrong.

LDs have choice between small minded twat Davey and pansexual domestic violence risk Layla.

Looks like continuing opposition since 1906.

PB consensus is that Cummings has sustained serious dent to his public image, with consequence for PM.

So what's so different about what Farage has done, and Cumming case. Except that photos of Farage wetting his whistle way better.

Cummings did nothing wrong either.

Don't forget this is generally a hard left Remoaner website and most posters will not hesitate to attack this government.

The need for Remoaners to continue to find a way to punish the figureheads of Brexit is partly amusing in its futility, but also rather disturbing in its half-life of forgiving, forgetting and moving on - at about 68,358 years.

Still fighting the battle you have already won? We former Remainers really have moved on.

The rejoicing at reporting Farage for going for a pint a few hours before he was technically cleared to do so suggests you cut a lonely figure...

My conspiritorial mind is twisted enough to think that for whatever reason, Nigel engineered all this because he has some plan up his sleeve.

I am assuming another comeback, and let's be honest he is the comeback king, albeit fleetingly, until he gets bored or his new party gets hijacked by extremists. Or it could be a TV career in the footsteps of Portillo. A "Magic of Europe" travelog perhaps?

If the Tories continue on their current road of woke appeasement then a Farage party could do them some damage in a future election.

I am not a Tory, but if I knew what it meant, I am definately a woke appeaser. A Farage led, Trump inspired party of the far right coming through on the rails is not something I particularly want to see at any cost.

Also Cummings and Farage are different - Cummings is a rather awkward back-room character who helped set the rules and gave a convoluted explanation for his breaking of them. Farage is an anti-establishment man of the people figure who would be expected to break rules - like Trump he has a touch of Teflon about him.

More likely military-grade titanium purloined from compromised govt stockpiles.

What are you on? permanently?

houndtang said:

Mexicanpete said:

houndtang said:

Mexicanpete said:

MarqueeMark said:

Mexicanpete said:

MarqueeMark said:

Ave_it said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Ave_it said:

RobD said:

But is it in proportion? He was hours away from being out of it anyway...

Farage did nothing wrong.

LDs have choice between small minded twat Davey and pansexual domestic violence risk Layla.

Looks like continuing opposition since 1906.

PB consensus is that Cummings has sustained serious dent to his public image, with consequence for PM.

So what's so different about what Farage has done, and Cumming case. Except that photos of Farage wetting his whistle way better.

Cummings did nothing wrong either.

Don't forget this is generally a hard left Remoaner website and most posters will not hesitate to attack this government.

The need for Remoaners to continue to find a way to punish the figureheads of Brexit is partly amusing in its futility, but also rather disturbing in its half-life of forgiving, forgetting and moving on - at about 68,358 years.

Still fighting the battle you have already won? We former Remainers really have moved on.

The rejoicing at reporting Farage for going for a pint a few hours before he was technically cleared to do so suggests you cut a lonely figure...

My conspiritorial mind is twisted enough to think that for whatever reason, Nigel engineered all this because he has some plan up his sleeve.

I am assuming another comeback, and let's be honest he is the comeback king, albeit fleetingly, until he gets bored or his new party gets hijacked by extremists. Or it could be a TV career in the footsteps of Portillo. A "Magic of Europe" travelog perhaps?

If the Tories continue on their current road of woke appeasement then a Farage party could do them some damage in a future election.

I am not a Tory, but if I knew what it meant, I am definately a woke appeaser. A Farage led, Trump inspired party of the far right coming through on the rails is not something I particularly want to see at any cost.

Also Cummings and Farage are different - Cummings is a rather awkward back-room character who helped set the rules and gave a convoluted explanation for his breaking of them. Farage is an anti-establishment man of the people figure who would be expected to break rules - like Trump he has a touch of Teflon about him.

There is NO evidence for this. He has never even been elected to a parliamentary seat. Note that the apparently unelectable Davey has been elected to a parliamentary seat. He is very popular among extremely-online righties but nowhere near as popular as say Boris Johnson nationally. Now is Boris Teflon? (Is Trump?)

With respect to down-ballot races that are in play, in part or almost entirely due to the presidential race, there are a number of intersting races in WA State.

> Biden is a clinch to win the Evergreen State

> no US Senate race this cycle, and Democratic Gov Jay Inslee, who ran for pres. but dropped out, is a pretty solid bet to win a 3rd term.

> only one US House seat up for grabs: CD 03 in SW WA held by GOP incumbent Jaime Hererra Buetler (a Hispanic in a non-Hispanic district) facing rematch with Dem challenger Carolyn Long

> state race for WA Secretary of State between incumbent Republican incumbent Kim Wyman and Democratic challenger Gael Tarleton, yet another two-woman show-down.

> Democrats looking to increase current margins in state senate and house by picking up seats in suburbs and some outlying areas that have been trending Democrati, with prospect of Trumpsky pushing them over the tipping point,

RobD said:

MattW said:

Since it's AM let's do trivia.

What has Farage actually broken, assuming he has broken something - law or advice ("Rules" not being a thing)? Are the 14 days quarantine in the Regulations or the Guidance?

If it's Guidance, then Davey is wasting police time.

Wouldn't expect EJD to make that mistake though; he is a grey man of some thoroughness and some achievement.

I can't see anything in the revised legislation:

https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/684/contents/made

Here's the announcement from Priti Patel.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/home-secretary-announces-new-public-health-measures-for-all-uk-arrivals

MattW said:

RobD said:

MattW said:

Since it's AM let's do trivia.

What has Farage actually broken, assuming he has broken something - law or advice ("Rules" not being a thing)? Are the 14 days quarantine in the Regulations or the Guidance?

If it's Guidance, then Davey is wasting police time.

Wouldn't expect EJD to make that mistake though; he is a grey man of some thoroughness and some achievement.

I can't see anything in the revised legislation:

https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/684/contents/made

Here's the announcement from Priti Patel.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/home-secretary-announces-new-public-health-measures-for-all-uk-arrivals

Interesting, there must be another piece of regulation it is covered under.

EPG said:

houndtang said:

Mexicanpete said:

houndtang said:

Mexicanpete said:

MarqueeMark said:

Mexicanpete said:

MarqueeMark said:

Ave_it said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Ave_it said:

RobD said:

But is it in proportion? He was hours away from being out of it anyway...

Farage did nothing wrong.

LDs have choice between small minded twat Davey and pansexual domestic violence risk Layla.

Looks like continuing opposition since 1906.

PB consensus is that Cummings has sustained serious dent to his public image, with consequence for PM.

So what's so different about what Farage has done, and Cumming case. Except that photos of Farage wetting his whistle way better.

Cummings did nothing wrong either.

Don't forget this is generally a hard left Remoaner website and most posters will not hesitate to attack this government.

The need for Remoaners to continue to find a way to punish the figureheads of Brexit is partly amusing in its futility, but also rather disturbing in its half-life of forgiving, forgetting and moving on - at about 68,358 years.

Still fighting the battle you have already won? We former Remainers really have moved on.

The rejoicing at reporting Farage for going for a pint a few hours before he was technically cleared to do so suggests you cut a lonely figure...

My conspiritorial mind is twisted enough to think that for whatever reason, Nigel engineered all this because he has some plan up his sleeve.

I am assuming another comeback, and let's be honest he is the comeback king, albeit fleetingly, until he gets bored or his new party gets hijacked by extremists. Or it could be a TV career in the footsteps of Portillo. A "Magic of Europe" travelog perhaps?

If the Tories continue on their current road of woke appeasement then a Farage party could do them some damage in a future election.

I am not a Tory, but if I knew what it meant, I am definately a woke appeaser. A Farage led, Trump inspired party of the far right coming through on the rails is not something I particularly want to see at any cost.

Also Cummings and Farage are different - Cummings is a rather awkward back-room character who helped set the rules and gave a convoluted explanation for his breaking of them. Farage is an anti-establishment man of the people figure who would be expected to break rules - like Trump he has a touch of Teflon about him.

There is NO evidence for this. He has never even been elected to a parliamentary seat. Note that the apparently unelectable Davey has been elected to a parliamentary seat. He is very popular among extremely-online righties but nowhere near as popular as say Boris Johnson nationally. Now is Boris Teflon? (Is Trump?)

Isn't the House of Commons (or Lords for that matter) about the LAST place he wants to be? Just not his style, would cramp what he's got. Instead, give it the old college try (as we say in the States), gain gobs of publicity fighting the good fight, losing gallantly against great odds, shrug off the blow like a hero, and so on and so forth.

EPG said:

MattW said:

EPG said:

houndtang said:

Mexicanpete said:

houndtang said:

Mexicanpete said:

MarqueeMark said:

Mexicanpete said:

MarqueeMark said:

Ave_it said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Ave_it said:

RobD said:

But is it in proportion? He was hours away from being out of it anyway...

Farage did nothing wrong.

LDs have choice between small minded twat Davey and pansexual domestic violence risk Layla.

Looks like continuing opposition since 1906.

PB consensus is that Cummings has sustained serious dent to his public image, with consequence for PM.

So what's so different about what Farage has done, and Cumming case. Except that photos of Farage wetting his whistle way better.

Cummings did nothing wrong either.

Don't forget this is generally a hard left Remoaner website and most posters will not hesitate to attack this government.

The need for Remoaners to continue to find a way to punish the figureheads of Brexit is partly amusing in its futility, but also rather disturbing in its half-life of forgiving, forgetting and moving on - at about 68,358 years.

Still fighting the battle you have already won? We former Remainers really have moved on.

The rejoicing at reporting Farage for going for a pint a few hours before he was technically cleared to do so suggests you cut a lonely figure...

My conspiritorial mind is twisted enough to think that for whatever reason, Nigel engineered all this because he has some plan up his sleeve.

I am assuming another comeback, and let's be honest he is the comeback king, albeit fleetingly, until he gets bored or his new party gets hijacked by extremists. Or it could be a TV career in the footsteps of Portillo. A "Magic of Europe" travelog perhaps?

If the Tories continue on their current road of woke appeasement then a Farage party could do them some damage in a future election.

I am not a Tory, but if I knew what it meant, I am definately a woke appeaser. A Farage led, Trump inspired party of the far right coming through on the rails is not something I particularly want to see at any cost.

Also Cummings and Farage are different - Cummings is a rather awkward back-room character who helped set the rules and gave a convoluted explanation for his breaking of them. Farage is an anti-establishment man of the people figure who would be expected to break rules - like Trump he has a touch of Teflon about him.

There is NO evidence for this. He has never even been elected to a parliamentary seat. Note that the apparently unelectable Davey has been elected to a parliamentary seat. He is very popular among extremely-online righties but nowhere near as popular as say Boris Johnson nationally. Now is Boris Teflon? (Is Trump?)

Ed Davey a rightie? He started out as a Green, then became a Lib Dem - Orange Book tendency.

Very *very* good at Lib Dem pavement politics.

You know what I meant !!

Actually I didn't until I read and updated .

And TBF there are plenty of Corbynites and other people out there (including in the comments at Lib Dem Voice) who would brand him a Tory.

Andy_JS said:

Mexicanpete said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I see twitter is full of people outraged at the sights of london streets packed with drinkers, saying they, boris, Cummings responsible for the incoming second wave. Funny how same people weren't on the outrage bus when it was protesters doing the same.

I despair at both!

It's often difficult to tell whether people are one metre apart from each other from photos.

Try that old standby - swinging dead cat. Guaranteed to enforce social distancing and discourage incursions into your personal space.

RobD said:

MattW said:

RobD said:

MattW said:

Since it's AM let's do trivia.

What has Farage actually broken, assuming he has broken something - law or advice ("Rules" not being a thing)? Are the 14 days quarantine in the Regulations or the Guidance?

If it's Guidance, then Davey is wasting police time.

Wouldn't expect EJD to make that mistake though; he is a grey man of some thoroughness and some achievement.

I can't see anything in the revised legislation:

https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/684/contents/made

Here's the announcement from Priti Patel.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/home-secretary-announces-new-public-health-measures-for-all-uk-arrivals

Interesting, there must be another piece of regulation it is covered under.

The Health Protection (Coronavirus, International Travel) (England) Regulations 2020

UK Statutory Instruments 2020 No. 568 PART 2 Regulation 4

http://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/568/regulation/4/made#text=self-isolate

Ballot acces requirements for independents:
https://ballotpedia.org/Ballot_access_for_presidential_candidates#Party_nomination_processes

WI and PA look like they might be doable but he'll have to get a move on.

Black_Rook said:

RobD said:

CarlottaVance said:

The W.H.O. suspends two drug studies, including one on hydroxychloroquine, over possible safety issues.

The World Health Organization on Saturday formally suspended its evaluation of two high-profile drug candidates in clinical trials designed to identify treatments effective against the coronavirus.
The W.H.O. formally adopted the recommendations of a steering committee and dropped the antimalarial drug hydroxychloroquine from its Solidarity trial, as well as the drug combination lopinavir/ritonavir, first developed as an antiviral against H.I.V., the virus that causes AIDS.

Hydroxychloroquine was promoted by the Trump administration as a preventive and treatment for Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. But neither hydroxychloroquine nor lopinavir/ritonavir has shown benefits in hospitalized Covid-19 patients. In clinical trials, both drugs have failed to reduce deaths among those with severe symptoms.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/04/world/coronavirus-updates.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-coronavirus-national&variant=show&region=TOP_BANNER&context=storylines_menu#link-3cb9424a

Hasn't the UK study shown hydroxychloroquine do be useless?

I'm pretty sure that the Recovery trial has reported no benefit both from HCQ and the HIV drugs.

The Americans still think there might be something in it:

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/02/health/hydroxychloroquine-coronavirus-detroit-study/index.html

Then again, they have had to put out a plea for people to stop microwaving library books to avoid the virus:

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/04/us/dont-microwave-your-library-books-trnd/index.html

Andy_JS said:

Pulpstar said:

I don't think anyone will care about Farage seeing as he was just hours away from quarantine anyway. Looks like a continuation of the endless culture wars - indeed Nice pro ably wanted this reaction.

Yes I agree, if he broke the rules by a few hours it may have been a deliberate attempt to split opinion.

Was is really "just a few hours"?

The Tulsa rally was 14 days ago on the 20th of June. He would not have been able to fly out that night from Tulsa (what with the rally not ending until evening, and Tulsa not having direct flights to the UK).

He would have needed to transit to one of the four US airports with current direct flights to the UK: New York, Newark, Los Angeles, and Chicago. Realistically, the earliest he could have flow back would have been the day after the rally, i.e. the 21st of June, landing back in the UK on the 22nd of June. It is also possible that he stayed a day or two in the US for meetings after the rally.

I've looked through Nigel's Twitter, and I can see him getting very exercised about illegal immigrants crossing the channel. The first event on there which appears to definitely place him in the UK was a June 25th interview. So, my guess is that he landed between the 22nd and the 24th (although he could have landed on 25th and done the interview the same day).

So, he was in the UK for a maximum of 12 days and perhaps as little as 9.

(Whatever you think of the rules, it seems unlikely he was just "hours away" from the end of the quarantine period.)

rcs1000 said:

Andy_JS said:

Pulpstar said:

I don't think anyone will care about Farage seeing as he was just hours away from quarantine anyway. Looks like a continuation of the endless culture wars - indeed Nice pro ably wanted this reaction.

Yes I agree, if he broke the rules by a few hours it may have been a deliberate attempt to split opinion.

Was is really "just a few hours"?

The Tulsa rally was 14 days ago on the 20th of June. He would not have been able to fly out that night from Tulsa (what with the rally not ending until evening, and Tulsa not having direct flights to the UK).

He would have needed to transit to one of the four US airports with current direct flights to the UK: New York, Newark, Los Angeles, and Chicago. Realistically, the earliest he could have flow back would have been the day after the rally, i.e. the 21st of June, landing back in the UK on the 22nd of June. It is also possible that he stayed a day or two in the US for meetings after the rally.

I've looked through Nigel's Twitter, and I can see him getting very exercised about illegal immigrants crossing the channel. The first event on there which appears to definitely place him in the UK was a June 25th interview. So, my guess is that he landed between the 22nd and the 24th (although he could have landed on 25th and done the interview the same day).

So, he was in the UK for a maximum of 12 days and perhaps as little as 9.

(Whatever you think of the rules, it seems unlikely he was just "hours away" from the end of the quarantine period.)

I suspect that he probably broke the rules.

I also think the Police could and would have been made aware of that without an opposing politician grandstanding on the matter.

I don't like the idea of reporting to the Police being abused for political purposes. Even for those I dislike, like Farage.

rcs1000 said:

Andy_JS said:

Pulpstar said:

I don't think anyone will care about Farage seeing as he was just hours away from quarantine anyway. Looks like a continuation of the endless culture wars - indeed Nice pro ably wanted this reaction.

Yes I agree, if he broke the rules by a few hours it may have been a deliberate attempt to split opinion.

Was is really "just a few hours"?

The Tulsa rally was 14 days ago on the 20th of June. He would not have been able to fly out that night from Tulsa (what with the rally not ending until evening, and Tulsa not having direct flights to the UK).

He would have needed to transit to one of the four US airports with current direct flights to the UK: New York, Newark, Los Angeles, and Chicago. Realistically, the earliest he could have flow back would have been the day after the rally, i.e. the 21st of June, landing back in the UK on the 22nd of June. It is also possible that he stayed a day or two in the US for meetings after the rally.

I've looked through Nigel's Twitter, and I can see him getting very exercised about illegal immigrants crossing the channel. The first event on there which appears to definitely place him in the UK was a June 25th interview. So, my guess is that he landed between the 22nd and the 24th (although he could have landed on 25th and done the interview the same day).

So, he was in the UK for a maximum of 12 days and perhaps as little as 9.

(Whatever you think of the rules, it seems unlikely he was just "hours away" from the end of the quarantine period.)

The police dont investigate or dont recommend further action regarding things all the time (a failure even by a parish councillor to properly declare an interest being a criminal offence feels like a case in point, which is one reason it's been recommended to no longer be a criminal level offence) so even at a matter of a couple of days I could see them not caring over much. An egregious breach though and theyd probably act.

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1279606100095053824?s=20

The Australian Labor Party narrowly win the by election in the marginal seat of Eden Monaro

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-05/labor-kristy-mcbain-claims-eden-monaro-nsw-by-election-win/12423210