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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A PBer lobbies the government over not being able to see his m

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  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,693

    As opposed to ELECTED NEVER-HAVE-BEENs ?
    At least the people get a say!
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,031
    A coup would humilate Trump but I fear his armed militia would defend him

    How on earth has it come to this
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,573

    A coup would humilate Trump but I fear his armed militia would defend him

    How on earth has it come to this
    Because Hilary's team didn't listen to her husband.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192

    A coup would humilate Trump but I fear his armed militia would defend him

    How on earth has it come to this
    They elected a narcissist who has given the extremists everything they wanted.

    Just like we did.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,693

    A coup would humilate Trump but I fear his armed militia would defend him

    How on earth has it come to this
    Because of the crappy Electoral College system gifting the White House to the LOSER of 2016?
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192
    Anyway, dinner is nearly ready so I have to pop the red wine out of the fridge before it gets too cold.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,031

    They elected a narcissist who has given the extremists everything they wanted.

    Just like we did.
    Good try but Boris is not Trump

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,017
    This is the government that is supposed to be guiding us safely through a global pandemic, nailing a superb Brexit trade deal with the EU and levelling up opportunity across the country. What are the chances?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,017

    Good try but Boris is not Trump

    His commitment to democracy is as strong as Trump's.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,693
    324 UK deaths announced. It's going to a long hot fucking summer :open_mouth:
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,829
    TimT said:

    This comes back to the 'because someone is vile, everything he/she does and thinks is vile, regardless, and all who side with them on any issue are, by definition, vile." So intellectually lazy.

    Mussolini is vile. He wants to make the trains run on time. Making trains is now by definition vile. And so is everyone who wants trains to run on time.
    Losing all nuance and thus rendering the argument null and void. The question is as follows -

    If you discover that a political position you support is also supported by vast numbers of people whose views on most things you find abhorent, does this give you pause for thought and is it a matter of concern?

    The answer (imo) is yes.
  • On topic

    Saddening and a little surprising to hear that. Technical solutions are not that difficult.
    My sister (60) has been suffering from multiple sclerosis for more than 25 years, by now in the final stages, completely paralysed. She spent February in hospital. After the first Covid cases were identified in her old care home and the first death of a hospital transferal was registered, we found a new care home for her near Lüneburg in Lower Saxony.

    That care home was completely quarantined for about six weeks. For more than a month now there has been a visitor scheme in place. You can enter through a side entrance and access two designated visitor rooms through a hallway, both rooms are divided within by a plexiglass screen (wall to wall, and floor to ceiling, sealed off airtight with silicon around the edges), microphones and loudspeakers installed to enable verbal communication.
    Visitors have zero contact with the staff. The rooms, the hallway and the entrance are desinfected after every set of visitors. You have to make an appointment a week ahead and the visiting time is restricted to 30 mins, once a week (they can only offer 8 spots before noon and 10 after noon), but it's better than nothing. They were relatively late, her former care home in Hamburg had that scheme running a couple of weeks earlier. The installation itself shouldn't take long, maybe a day or two. As far as I know this is now basically the standard in German care homes.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,829

    Anyway, dinner is nearly ready so I have to pop the red wine out of the fridge before it gets too cold.

    Ice works in red wine imo. Odd concept but it does.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,017
    A government that lies as brazenly and as frequently as this one has nothing but contempt for the governed.
    https://twitter.com/UKStatsAuth/status/1267743490932387841
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192

    Good try but Boris is not Trump

    No, he lacks the ability :D
  • eekeek Posts: 29,751

    This is the government that is supposed to be guiding us safely through a global pandemic, nailing a superb Brexit trade deal with the EU and levelling up opportunity across the country. What are the chances?

    Of everything going well or of all items being grade A clusterf**ks.

    My money is on the latter
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    HYUFD said:
    Americans might not like Trump, but they'll back the military and law enforcement to the hilt.
    Biden has to play this one carefully as it's the Democrats that will be far more split than the GOP on this.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    TimT said:

    I have to say, contrarian, you live up to your name and bring great value to this site.

    On some levels, I agree with you. Trump is where he is because he is willing to name problems that other politicians won't. He is crap at solutions, and it doesn't mean he names all problems (or even names all the ones he names correctly), and he only mode is partisan division, right/wrong, win/lose. Zero nuance.

    Where I part company with you, and agree with Robert, is that quite apart from the unorthodox approaches he takes in presentational terms, he is steadily eroding the institutions, conventions, and checks and balances that make/made all those responsible for those grand political disasters you mention accountable. I have to wonder just how Barr would proceed if Watergate Trump version were to happen during this election season.
    Thanks for giving me a fair hearing Mr Tim.

    I suppose I would argue that some of those institutions had a hand in undermining themselves. But I guess, its a very complex story,that one.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,300

    A government that lies as brazenly and as frequently as this one has nothing but contempt for the governed.
    https://twitter.com/UKStatsAuth/status/1267743490932387841

    Why do they still have an opinion poll lead?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,688
    edited June 2020
    (Catching up)

    >@contararian
    >Who was talking about dictatorship? I certainly wasn't.

    Well, the Guardian for one. This afternoon. And 'fascism'.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jun/02/donald-trump-george-floyd-protests-military-threat

    "Words of a dictator': Trump's threat to deploy military raises spectre of fascism"

    One would hope it was one of their opinionators, but no - it's the Washington Bureau Chief. Quoting Kamala Harris and himself.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,017
    Andy_JS said:

    Why do they still have an opinion poll lead?

    Because Labour spent 10 years trashing its brand.

  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,772
    Parliamentary Constituencies Bill Briefing note - see page 16.

    Review will be based on 2020 electorates (not yet known) but using 2019 as an estimate, main changes in seats are:

    South East +7
    East +4
    South West +3
    North East -3
    Scotland -3
    Wales -8

    Looks as if bound to be good for Con.

    https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-8921/CBP-8921.pdf
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited June 2020
    They're certainly getting hoisted by their own petards, after chucking all the home testing kits out the door to make the 100k number at the end of April. Having said that, this makes very little difference to overall test numbers in the long run.

    Testing numbers and capacity are basically solved problems - we're doing more than Germany and Italy put together, one of the highest per capita in the world. The issue now is using that facility more efficiently, and on that side we've got a lot to improve and learn from others.

    A government that lies as brazenly and as frequently as this one has nothing but contempt for the governed.
    https://twitter.com/UKStatsAuth/status/1267743490932387841

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822

    RichardN – the explanation below the graphs you cite rather undermines their punch.

    If you are 35, female, and fit and slim what do you think your chances of hospitalisation from CV-19 are?

    Low.

    What about a 45-year old male?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,688
    edited June 2020
    Stocky said:

    I presume that the resident can leave in theory, my sister and I have power of attorney (health). However, it is not possible due to my mother`s health. She is very infirm and prone to passing out - so is what they term as a "falls risk". List of medication as long as your arm as well.
    It's worth remembering that some staff - and certainly Doctors - have wide latitude outside your Power of Attorney.

    My mum had a DNR notice put on her without consultation, as a medical judgement. This was last autumn.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,575

    JRM is a dinosaur
    He certainly Rex everything he touches.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    MikeL said:

    Parliamentary Constituencies Bill Briefing note - see page 16.

    Review will be based on 2020 electorates (not yet known) but using 2019 as an estimate, main changes in seats are:

    South East +7
    East +4
    South West +3
    North East -3
    Scotland -3
    Wales -8

    Looks as if bound to be good for Con.

    https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-8921/CBP-8921.pdf

    It'll be good for the Gov't but it follows "normal" procedure and is long overdue so I've got no issue with this.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,575
    edited June 2020
    @Stocky

    I hope they listen.

    What I cannot understand is why the government have a strict ‘no visitors’ rule yet seem to be knowingly and deliberately releasing patients with CV19 back to care homes. I hate to think it but I wonder if they are afraid families might notice and kick up a huge fuss?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,829

    Oh girls, girls really.

    I'm sorry but its almost like I'm in a political version of 'from Ladette to Lady' with Marjorie RCS in charge of the Acme school of Presidential etiquette.

    all this stuff is worse than the Bay of Pigs? Worse than trying to overthrow the government of Cuba?

    Worse than Iran Contra?

    Worse than Watergate, bugging the headquarters of your main political opponents?

    Worse than Vietnam, worse than Napalm and the deaths of countless civilians?

    And what about the enormous lies the American people must have been told about all of these escapades, never mind Iraq.

    Trump doesn't lie more than other presidents, its just he's rubbish at it. Why? he's not a politician. That's why he's there.
    You try so hard to sound like a seasoned "man of the world", don't you. It's quite sweet really.

    Anyway, OK.

    (i) Some bad things have happened in the last 60 years that he is not responsible for.

    (ii) He is forever lying and getting caught.

    I cannot disagree. But is this a solid platform for reelection?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,856
    ydoethur said:

    He certainly Rex everything he touches.
    A diplodoofus.

    *I like JRM, but I am not sure what he is driving at by this. To be fair I haven't seen his explanation.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    edited June 2020
    MaxPB said:

    Yes, it's completely ridiculous that the government have stopped reporting people tested and have never reported in people recovered.
    Perhaps because of the practical point of knowing when/wether recovered. The Scottish Gmt don't report people recovered either - though TRavelling Tabby makes an estimate from other figures. Tabby says

    "The government isn’t currently telling us the number of active/recovered patients, probably because it would be a pain to bring everyone who has tested positive back in for a follow-up test. However, it is possible to make an estimate, as the majority of people will recover from the disease within 2 weeks.

    I understand that this won’t be completely accurate, so please don’t quote the active / recovery numbers as fact, but they should still give us a good idea of where we currently stand!

    To find the current number of active and recovered cases, I use the following methods:

    Active cases = any new cases confirmed in the past 2 weeks – any new deaths in the past 2 weeks
    Recovered cases = total cases – active cases – total deaths"

    https://www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,300
    edited June 2020
    O/T

    "China’s growing belligerence is only hurting itself

    The Hong Kong security law speaks of a power whose main problem is loneliness.
    By Jeremy Cliffe"

    https://www.newstatesman.com/world/asia/2020/05/china-s-growing-belligerence-only-hurting-itself
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    After giving the header a good deal of thought, first up I'm glad I'm not in that position. I think Care Homes should be locked down far more (Including staff) than they are now though to prevent community -> Home or Home -> community transmission. I think though visitor restrictions must be maintained - certainly inside the care home no visitors should be allowed.
    Possibly in the garden at a 2 metre social distance ? Possibly. A difficult subject for everyone.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,575
    MikeL said:

    Parliamentary Constituencies Bill Briefing note - see page 16.

    Review will be based on 2020 electorates (not yet known) but using 2019 as an estimate, main changes in seats are:

    South East +7
    East +4
    South West +3
    North East -3
    Scotland -3
    Wales -8

    Looks as if bound to be good for Con.

    https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-8921/CBP-8921.pdf

    I’m puzzled. It has Scotland going from 57 seats to 54.

    But Scotland has 59 seats, not 57.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,856
    Great idea, I am sure they'd be delighted actually.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    kinabalu said:

    You try so hard to sound like a seasoned "man of the world", don't you. It's quite sweet really.

    Anyway, OK.

    (i) Some bad things have happened in the last 60 years that he is not responsible for.

    (ii) He is forever lying and getting caught.

    I cannot disagree. But is this a solid platform for reelection?
    Unfortunately, it is still within the realms of possibility.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    ydoethur said:

    I’m puzzled. It has Scotland going from 57 seats to 54.

    But Scotland has 59 seats, not 57.
    Did you forget about the border adjustment? ;)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    Probably the same weirdos ;) that were queueing for the flatpack furniture yesterday.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,688
    Serious question for @Stocky .

    Do you know whether the prohibition is a matter of Law (ie Regulations) or Guidelines (ie Advice) ?

    Thank-you for the piece.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,575
    TimT said:

    Did you forget about the border adjustment? ;)
    Ah, did the Laird of Roxburgh, Selkirk and Peebles ask for an adjustment in his favour?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    At least one man close to the Gov't is still following the science even if noone else is..

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/jun/02/chris-whitty-vetoed-lowering-of-coronavirus-alert-level
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited June 2020
    Imagine quarantining yourself over health fears for months and then going out and stuffing your face with food barely fit for human consumption.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,575

    Imagine quarantining yourself over health fears for months and then going out and stuffing yourself on food barely fit for human consumption.
    Mackies serves food? That’s at least one improvement that’s come out of this then.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,035

    You'd think that the government's never-ending quest to find new and interesting ways to humiliate the UK might have reached its pinnacle today with that utterly riciculous, anti-democratic vote in Pariament. But it will no doubt find new opportunities to make us look ridiculous. What an absolute shower they are.

    This government comprises the cream of the Tory Brexiteers, the brightest and the best as it were. What were you expecting?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    4% agree with current government policy - one its held since the start of the pandemic and copied almost nowhere else on the planet....

    https://twitter.com/yougov/status/1267843460566003712?s=21
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,300

    Imagine quarantining yourself over health fears for months and then going out and stuffing yourself on food barely fit for human consumption.
    It's mind boggling. But then we do have an obesity and diabetes problem in this country.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,951
    kinabalu said:

    Ice works in red wine imo. Odd concept but it does.
    Standard in Taiwan. Get odd looks when you ask for it without
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,693
    I posted a similar article upthread :)
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    I'm so sorry Fishing. This is absolutely awful.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,300
    ydoethur said:

    I’m puzzled. It has Scotland going from 57 seats to 54.

    But Scotland has 59 seats, not 57.
    Orkney & Shetland and Western Isles are special cases.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,035
    MikeL said:

    Parliamentary Constituencies Bill Briefing note - see page 16.

    Review will be based on 2020 electorates (not yet known) but using 2019 as an estimate, main changes in seats are:

    South East +7
    East +4
    South West +3
    North East -3
    Scotland -3
    Wales -8

    Looks as if bound to be good for Con.

    https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-8921/CBP-8921.pdf

    Does that hold as true with the Tories new "red wall" and north Wales seats I wonder?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,137
    I notice we are now level with spain in population adjusted Covid deaths
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    A question for a friend. Does anyone have a working email address for Liz Truss? Her parliament.mp one doesn't appear to be working.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,300
    IanB2 said:

    I notice we are now level with spain in population adjusted Covid deaths

    Does this include the extra 12,000 deaths that Spain discovered recently? I don't think Worldometers or John Hopkins are including them.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,693
    ydoethur said:

    He certainly Rex everything he touches.
    Poshosaurus vex
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,280
    ydoethur said:

    @Stocky

    I hope they listen.

    What I cannot understand is why the government have a strict ‘no visitors’ rule yet seem to be knowingly and deliberately releasing patients with CV19 back to care homes. I hate to think it but I wonder if they are afraid families might notice and kick up a huge fuss?

    Good point
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    IanB2 said:

    I notice we are now level with spain in population adjusted Covid deaths

    Spanish media thought the UK had gone ahead yesterday, not sure of the data sources.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,575
    Andy_JS said:

    Orkney & Shetland and Western Isles are special cases.
    Ah, so they’re not counted for the boundary review then? Thank you, that now makes sense.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    4% agree with current government policy - one its held since the start of the pandemic and copied almost nowhere else on the planet....

    https://twitter.com/yougov/status/1267843460566003712?s=21

    Surely any poll taken whilst millions are on the government's payroll is going to be questionable.

    One newspaper quoted 11m?? best of luck unwinding that puppy, Rishi.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,280
    MattW said:

    Serious question for @Stocky .

    Do you know whether the prohibition is a matter of Law (ie Regulations) or Guidelines (ie Advice) ?

    Thank-you for the piece.

    That`s what I `m trying to find out. The care home manager says they are simply complying woth government rules. But is this true? Are they rules or guidelines? What law enforces this - trumping human rights legislation as pointed out by NigelB earlier?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,575

    A question for a friend. Does anyone have a working email address for Liz Truss? Her parliament.mp one doesn't appear to be working.

    Try eatdomesticcheeseyoudisgraces@hottymail.com
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,951
    OllyT said:

    Does that hold as true with the Tories new "red wall" and north Wales seats I wonder?
    If there are 8 Welsh seats lost it looks likely 3 will be in North Wales and 2 in Central and West. They are the smaller ones in general.
    Remaining 3 in Glamorgan and Gwent.
    So less bad for Labour than on first viewing.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,273
    Andrew said:

    30k antibody tests today, plus near 6k for the ONS and other surveillance programs.

    At this rate, maybe suggests they're planning antibody tests for the entire NHS before opening it up - anyone know?

    I believe that the plan its to test all NHS frontline staff in the first cohort. I'm not sure if other essential careers - such as care home staff - are in that first cohort, or come next.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    MikeL said:

    Parliamentary Constituencies Bill Briefing note - see page 16.

    Review will be based on 2020 electorates (not yet known) but using 2019 as an estimate, main changes in seats are:

    South East +7
    East +4
    South West +3
    North East -3
    Scotland -3
    Wales -8

    Looks as if bound to be good for Con.

    https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-8921/CBP-8921.pdf

    I didn't realise previously ministers had power to amend the final recommendations, but no longer.

    Interestingly, the Commission will be allowed to take account of 'prospetive' local government boundaries and not just those in effect on the review date to give more flexibility to coincide them (I know of at least one unitary seat at present split between three parliamentary constituencies)
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,012
    MattW said:

    Serious question for @Stocky .

    Do you know whether the prohibition is a matter of Law (ie Regulations) or Guidelines (ie Advice) ?

    Thank-you for the piece.

    Not an expert but so far as I can see Fishing's request (1) is prohibited by the Health Protection Regs 2020 (as revised for 1 June) section 7(1)(b)

    http://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/350/regulation/7

    But the request (2) is allowed under 7(1)(a). Clearly however it is not allowed by the guidance (of which there now seems to be mountains).

    I think it is inevitable that the people running the homes are going to be governed by the precautionary principle.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    ydoethur said:

    Ah, so they’re not counted for the boundary review then? Thank you, that now makes sense.
    Also Isle of Wight gets 2 seats to avoid the electorate numbers requiring a seat split with the mainland.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,280
    algarkirk said:

    Not an expert but so far as I can see Fishing's request (1) is prohibited by the Health Protection Regs 2020 (as revised for 1 June) section 7(1)(b)

    http://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/350/regulation/7

    But the request (2) is allowed under 7(1)(a). Clearly however it is not allowed by the guidance (of which there now seems to be mountains).

    I think it is inevitable that the people running the homes are going to be governed by the precautionary principle.

    No - that`s not good enough. They are a private company stopping family from seeing each other.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,575
    dixiedean said:

    If there are 8 Welsh seats lost it looks likely 3 will be in North Wales and 2 in Central and West. They are the smaller ones in general.
    Remaining 3 in Glamorgan and Gwent.
    So less bad for Labour than on first viewing.
    That’s interesting, because on the original proposals to cut Wales to 28 it was the valleys - and therefore Labour - that took a pounding.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,303
    On the return to in person voting for the House of Commons: my assumption is that JRM does not want a situation to develop where electronic voting is seen as normal, and it becomes even harder to go back.
    I’m not saying this is a good reason (though, to play devil’s advocate, it would be much easier to hack electronic voting, and probably easier to vote the wrong way by mistake), but I think it may a plausible one for JRM to have in mind.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,575
    algarkirk said:

    Not an expert but so far as I can see Fishing's request (1) is prohibited by the Health Protection Regs 2020 (as revised for 1 June) section 7(1)(b)

    http://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/350/regulation/7

    But the request (2) is allowed under 7(1)(a). Clearly however it is not allowed by the guidance (of which there now seems to be mountains).

    I think it is inevitable that the people running the homes are going to be governed by the precautionary principle.

    Well, we now know, thanks to the attorney general and Dominic Cummings between them, that the guidelines can simply be ignored. Just say ‘my elderly relative needs an eye test.’

    However, whether insurers see it quite the same way is another matter.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,434
    Stocky said:

    No - that`s not good enough. They are a private company stopping family from seeing each other.
    Yeah, because if people get sick and die in the care home (particularly ones who didn't choose to see their relatives), then the care home will get sued by the family of the bereaved and will go out of business.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,303
    Andrew said:

    30k antibody tests today, plus near 6k for the ONS and other surveillance programs.

    At this rate, maybe suggests they're planning antibody tests for the entire NHS before opening it up - anyone know?

    I found myself in hospital yesterday and most of the staff I talked to seemed to have had an antibody test.
    I’m not suggesting most staff have had it yet as it would make sense to test the patient facing staff first.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,231
    ydoethur said:

    Try eatdomesticcheeseyoudisgraces@hottymail.com
    Fwiw she will have separate addresses for her MP work and for her SoS work. [fx google] And (from her website) her Minister for Women role. Addresses and phone numbers are listed on:
    https://www.elizabethtruss.com/contact

    Other than that, is she active on any of the social media platforms (as opposed to having a furloughed intern updating her twitter account once a week with whatever CCHQ sends round)?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,112
    Andy_JS said:

    Does this include the extra 12,000 deaths that Spain discovered recently? I don't think Worldometers or John Hopkins are including them.
    The 12,000 is excess deaths not specifically Covid 19 related . They won’t appear on either of those two sites.

    What they’ve found is similar to what the ONS reports every Tuesday.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,017
    MikeL said:

    Parliamentary Constituencies Bill Briefing note - see page 16.

    Review will be based on 2020 electorates (not yet known) but using 2019 as an estimate, main changes in seats are:

    South East +7
    East +4
    South West +3
    North East -3
    Scotland -3
    Wales -8

    Looks as if bound to be good for Con.

    https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-8921/CBP-8921.pdf

    This actually looks pretty reasonable to me. The East will undoubtedly be good for the Tories. I am less certain that the same will apply to the SE and SW. Wales might be interesting.

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,951
    ydoethur said:

    That’s interesting, because on the original proposals to cut Wales to 28 it was the valleys - and therefore Labour - that took a pounding.
    Just a quick and rough adding up of the 2019 electorates and dividing them. I may have got it wrong, but that's the obvious division as I see it.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,829
    TimT said:

    Unfortunately, it is still within the realms of possibility.
    Yes I grant you that. It is possible.

    But laying him at current prices is imo spectacular value.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,575
    edited June 2020

    This actually looks pretty reasonable to me. The East will undoubtedly be good for the Tories. I am less certain that the same will apply to the SE and SW. Wales might be interesting.

    When I looked at the previous boundary proposals, I calculated it would have fallen thus at the last election:

    Labour 14 (-8)
    Tory 12 (-2)
    Plaid 2 (-2)

    But the probability brackets were roughly Labour 11-15, Tory 10-14, Plaid 2-4.

    One thing to remember as well is that even if this review doesn’t hammer them quite as badly as the previous one, is that the Valleys are less solidly Labour than they were. Newport is a place where the Tories have been making quiet progress for a long time.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,012
    rcs1000 said:

    Yeah, because if people get sick and die in the care home (particularly ones who didn't choose to see their relatives), then the care home will get sued by the family of the bereaved and will go out of business.
    They will undoubtedly fear consequences like that.

    BTW 'stopping family from seeing each other' is a very good description of much of the law (Regulations) and guidance. One of the many reasons that the absence of parliamentary scrutiny is becoming a scandal.

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    ydoethur said:

    @Stocky

    I hope they listen.

    What I cannot understand is why the government have a strict ‘no visitors’ rule yet seem to be knowingly and deliberately releasing patients with CV19 back to care homes. I hate to think it but I wonder if they are afraid families might notice and kick up a huge fuss?

    They're not knowingly and deliberately doing that.

    Some NHS Trusts were doing that until early April when it was banned but it was never policy to do that and has been totally banned for nearly two months already.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,300
    OllyT said:

    Does that hold as true with the Tories new "red wall" and north Wales seats I wonder?
    Most of the red wall seats have undersized electorates AFAIK. Burnley, Blyth Valley, Sedgefield, Darlington for example all have well under 70,000 voters atm.
  • SurreySurrey Posts: 190
    edited June 2020
    FPT

    Sorry I don't get it. Even if Trump is listening to this bloke and not anyone else saying the same things, how do you get from there to Cotton winning the election? As an aside, and maybe relevant to 2024, Wikipedia has a list of Trump administration jobs that Cotton has been passed over for.
    Should something happen to Trump, Cotton would be a strong possible for the top Trumpism Forever candidate, and in scenarios where Trump was still alive and kicking and anybody cared what he said I could imagine him backing Cotton rather than Haley, Ryan, or Cruz. Cotton has been very visible too. That's all really. Even if his price should be 200, there's value in him at 1000.

    There's got to be at least one black swan in the next five months, although for all anybody knows it might hand Trump a landslide, stop the election, or hand the presidency to someone who runs third party, rather than usher a new Republican candidate into the White House. I'm not in the "foregone conclusion it will be either Trump or Biden" camp.

  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,280
    rcs1000 said:

    Yeah, because if people get sick and die in the care home (particularly ones who didn't choose to see their relatives), then the care home will get sued by the family of the bereaved and will go out of business.
    Yes, I see that risk, but a private company`s concerns should not get anywhere near being able to trump basic civil liberties. There must surely be legislation that trumps all else and that is what I`m trying to establish.

    I`m waiting for Helen Whately`s reply to my letter. I don`t have high hopes.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,829
    dixiedean said:

    Standard in Taiwan. Get odd looks when you ask for it without
    I only drink plonk so it's not vandalism or anything.

    Are you still doing the Buddhism?
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192
    kinabalu said:

    I only drink plonk so it's not vandalism or anything.

    Are you still doing the Buddhism?
    No. I only do red or white. Rosé occasionally ;)

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,575
    Surrey said:

    There's got to be at least one black swan in the next five months

    What more black swans could there be on top of the impeachment of the President, a worldwide pandemic, an economic collapse, the implosion of China’s international position, the murder of a detainee sparking riots in US cities, and some of the hottest, driest weather ever recorded?

    I think we’ve already had ample black swans for the entire decade. If that hasn’t dethroned Trump, nothing short an assassin’s bullet will.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,829
    Stocky said:

    That`s what I `m trying to find out. The care home manager says they are simply complying woth government rules. But is this true? Are they rules or guidelines? What law enforces this - trumping human rights legislation as pointed out by NigelB earlier?
    Pretty sure it's guidelines but not 100% certain.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,951
    kinabalu said:

    I only drink plonk so it's not vandalism or anything.

    Are you still doing the Buddhism?
    I am indeed. Just off to meditate this moment.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,231
    dixiedean said:

    Just a quick and rough adding up of the 2019 electorates and dividing them. I may have got it wrong, but that's the obvious division as I see it.
    When these proposals were first mooted, Wales was all red (as was Scotland) so the details did not matter very much from CCHQ's point of view. Now that the Conservatives have shown they can win seats in Wales, Scotland and the north, it is no longer that any change at all is a slam dunk for the blue team.
  • SurreySurrey Posts: 190
    ydoethur said:

    What more black swans could there be on top of the impeachment of the President, a worldwide pandemic, an economic collapse, the implosion of China’s international position, the murder of a detainee sparking riots in US cities, and some of the hottest, driest weather ever recorded?

    I think we’ve already had ample black swans for the entire decade. If that hasn’t dethroned Trump, nothing short an assassin’s bullet will.
    It is in the nature of black swans that they cannot be conceived of in sharp resolution beforehand. (See Nassim Taleb.) But to answer your question there could be a far worse economic collapse, war with China (or Iran or Russia), one or more assassinations as you say, Trump could get Covid-19 (his inhalation during his address yesterday didn't seem tiptop), there could be terrorist attacks either with a high casualty figure or of especial gruesomeness, or upheaval following a US withdrawal from other international organisations than the WHO.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,829
    algarkirk said:

    Not an expert but so far as I can see Fishing's request (1) is prohibited by the Health Protection Regs 2020 (as revised for 1 June) section 7(1)(b)

    http://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/350/regulation/7

    But the request (2) is allowed under 7(1)(a). Clearly however it is not allowed by the guidance (of which there now seems to be mountains).

    I think it is inevitable that the people running the homes are going to be governed by the precautionary principle.
    So the "outside visit" is not illegal. That sounds right to me. This is what I've witnessed occurring.
This discussion has been closed.