politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » By my reckoning there should be at least three EP2014 polls

TSE is going to miss all the fun (though I'm sure he's enjoying himself)

"Where there are differential crime rates between nationalities, it is perfectly legitimate to point this out and to discuss it in the public sphere and I shall continue to do so."

"I was asked if a group of Romanian men moved in next door, would you be concerned? And if you lived in London, I think you would be."

Question:

Would "I was asked if a group of black men moved in next door, would you be concerned? And if you lived in London, I think you would be." be acceptable? After all, there are differential crime rates between races.

If a woman was vocal about not wanting 'men' to move into the house next door (after all, the police will happily tell you there are differential crime rates between sexes), they would be derided as a feminist harpy or worse.

Interesting and subtle from Michael Fallon conceding that if reneg doesn't come up with the goods Conservatives could advocate withdrawal.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27456187

A group of kippers appear to have moved into our village.

I would have much preferred it if they had been German.

2-2 Arsenal equalise, finally

Sunil_Prasannan said:

AveryLP said:

A group of kippers appear to have moved into our village.

I would have much preferred it if they had been German.

Comrade Chancellor!

Is it possible to be right-wing and a Europhile?

Adolf was, Comrade Sunilsky.

That is why we had to unite in order to defeat the fascist threat.

P.S. Did your mother ensure you were thrown the bridal bouquet?

Well yes we all know that Hannan is unreconcilable on the EU.

AveryLP said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

AveryLP said:

A group of kippers appear to have moved into our village.

I would have much preferred it if they had been German.

Comrade Chancellor!

Is it possible to be right-wing and a Europhile?

Adolf was, Comrade Sunilsky.

That is why we had to unite in order to defeat the fascist threat.

P.S. Did your mother ensure you were thrown the bridal bouquet?

Comrade Chancellor! Different customs in India - bride and groom were both given bouquets!

Sunil_Prasannan said:

FPT @HurstLlama

Ahoy there Mr. Llama, thanks for the welcome back! My brother's wedding went smoothly, and my mum's fine, though it was a little too hot for my liking in southern India at this time of year. Unfortunately due to time constraints, couldn't fit in any train rides but did see a few trains as we travelled around by car.

Great to see you back safe and well, Cap'n and very pleased to hear that the wedding went well and your mum is Ok.

You really did miss some humdinger threads while you were away and not just about HS2 either. We had diverse routes, the pre-nationalisation network, the London overground, what book to buy for a train buff, the livery schemes of old railways and Mr Jessup threatening me with excommunication for expressing a soft spot for the Great Western Railway. All while you were away, which stuck me, and others, as dreadfully unfair. Never mind, as is the way with PB.com I expect we will discuss all those issues again (and again) in the future.

Meanwhile back to slagging off UKIP which is mostly what this site has been about for the past few days.

Should have been 3-2 there!

Evening all

You also missed a cheap jibe from some numpty about New Zealanders.

HYUFD said:

Sunil Sounds like you had a good time in India at your brother's wedding, my parents went to my cousin's wedding outside of Delhi last year and found it fascinating

Indeed - one thing I did find "odd" is the lack of marriage vows or other verbal communication between the couple themselves, at least at my brother's Hindu wedding. There was also separate "receptions" hosted by my parents and my sister-in-law's parents on the two consecutive days after the wedding.

I also wound up attending a family neighbour's Muslim wedding "reception" too!

compouter2 said:

Three goes of putting the goalposts down...we haven't seen Daves kids for a while, picture must be due shortly. Have we had Daves 48 hour British holiday were cameras are invited followed by his two weeks in some millionaires haven where cameras are banned yet?

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/aug/20/david-cameron-cornwall-fourth-holiday

Feeble post and predictable.

ToryJim said:

Well yes we all know that Hannan is unreconcilable on the EU.

Mr Fallon advocated the Conservatives becoming an openly pro-EU party earlier this year.

MikeSmithson said:

SouthamObserver said:

It's on days like these that I thank the Lord I no longer live in North London.

This is, I gather, reciprocated by North Londoners.

Ha, ha. My Mum excepted. Hopefully.

"As Nigel Farage defends himself what would concern you more : a bunch of Romanians moving in next door or a bunch of Ukip supporters? "

My next door neighbour has just put up a large Ukip poster. They are a very nice family, so I'd answer "the former", Does that make me a racist?

GIN1138 said:

One of my neighbors has gone over to the dark side (and put a UKIP poster in his window)

This guy was solid Labour up until recently, BTW.

I passed a woman trundling along with a big (garden) UKIP sign in a wheeled shopping bag earlier. Berkshire rebelling against the Empire!

MarqueeMark said:

HurstLlama said:

Meanwhile back to slagging off UKIP which is mostly what this site has been about for the past few days.

Oh come on, "Ed is crap" has had a fair outing too.

Sunil also missed Cross-over Day..... No big thing.

Fair go, Mr. Mark. Does get a bit tedious though. Cap'n Doc Sunil coming back and telling us of the weddings in India and his mum's state of health is a breath of fresh air.

Sunil's Mum, for those that don't know is a formidable lady (she once told him to put his lap top away at the dinner table) of very definite political views. I regard her as both a national treasure and a bellwether for the next election.

In addition to my general wish for UKIP to do well (more out of a wish to see a strong fourth party in UK politics than out of policy support for them), I hope they do well in the Euros, principally so it will provoke a different strategy from the media, as I confess I am getting sick to death to the self rightous paranoia from the UKIP commentariat about the dark horrors or, er, most of the media outlets disagreeing with them, a heinous crime indeed, never suffered by any other force, and signify of shady motivations in the corridors of power rather than, er, the other parties just disagreeing with them.

Revolution is coming, LibLbCon etc etc.

Apologies for the rudeness, which I hope is out of character, and please note that I want UKIP to do well and like Farage, but having spent too long in the past few days reading blog sections across the british media, the wailing and whinging of UKIP, though not without cause, has become so self righteous and overly intense that my symathy is being eroded.

Extra time - will the Arsenal win again on penalties?

UKIP at 35% for Euros 11 and 15 ahead of Labour and Tories respectively according to the news.

SeanT said:

I f*cking nailed that UKIP blog. Just killed it.

Heh.

Epochal. The defining political post of the EU elections. Squisito.

anotherDave said:

ToryJim said:

anotherDave said:

ToryJim said:

Well yes we all know that Hannan is unreconcilable on the EU.

Mr Fallon advocated the Conservatives becoming an openly pro-EU party earlier this year.

That isn't inconsistent with what he has said today.

No. It fits perfectly with Mr Hannan's assessment. There is no danger of failure, because the renegotiation is a pantomime (™ SeanT) effort by pro-EU politicos posing as eurosceptics.

The trouble is that even if Cameron was a BOOer then UKIP and their ilk would say he didn't mean it, it's the very first chapter in Being a Fanatic for Dummies.

ToryJim said:

anotherDave said:

ToryJim said:

anotherDave said:

ToryJim said:

Well yes we all know that Hannan is unreconcilable on the EU.

Mr Fallon advocated the Conservatives becoming an openly pro-EU party earlier this year.

That isn't inconsistent with what he has said today.

No. It fits perfectly with Mr Hannan's assessment. There is no danger of failure, because the renegotiation is a pantomime (™ SeanT) effort by pro-EU politicos posing as eurosceptics.

The trouble is that even if Cameron was a BOOer then UKIP and their ilk would say he didn't mean it, it's the very first chapter in Being a Fanatic for Dummies.

Thanks very much. You're a sweetie. :-)

HurstLlama said:

SeanT said:

I f*cking nailed that UKIP blog. Just killed it.

Heh.

Does anyone have any idea what SeanT is talking about? Is he off on one again or is there actually a message in there?

He wrote a blog in the Telegraph criticising the LibLabConConspiracy against all true thinking Kippers (actually, he pointed out that some of the Kipper policies have significant support in opinion polls, but chose not to reflect on the fact that we elect representatives not delegates).

It seems to have proved quite popular amongst the Kipper fraternity and generated lots of shares which makes his editor happy

MarqueeMark said:

HurstLlama said:

Sunil's Mum, for those that don't know is a formidable lady (she once told him to put his lap top away at the dinner table) of very definite political views. I regard her as both a national treasure and a bellwether for the next election.

I hope that pb.com can give her regular guest slots.... If Lord Ashcroft doesn't sign her up first.

Like all good Lefties, mum has a villa in Tuscany Kerala

Kerala, for those that aren't familiar, is India's most literate state and one of the few states where the BJP didn't win any seats.

SeanT said:

HurstLlama said:

SeanT said:

I f*cking nailed that UKIP blog. Just killed it.

Heh.

Does anyone have any idea what SeanT is talking about? Is he off on one again or is there actually a message in there?

2170 comments. 640 shares. So far. And it's not yet teatime on a balmy Saturday.

I killed* it.

*"Killing it" is New York agentese for hitting the bullseye.

I will point out that agreeing with someone doesn't necessarily make either of you correct

compouter2 said:

Three goes of putting the goalposts down...we haven't seen Daves kids for a while, picture must be due shortly. Have we had Daves 48 hour British holiday were cameras are invited followed by his two weeks in some millionaires haven where cameras are banned yet?

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/aug/20/david-cameron-cornwall-fourth-holiday

I must be missing something. That Guardian article is from August last year.

SeanT said:

HurstLlama said:

SeanT said:

I f*cking nailed that UKIP blog. Just killed it.

Heh.

Does anyone have any idea what SeanT is talking about? Is he off on one again or is there actually a message in there?

2170 comments. 640 shares. So far. And it's not yet teatime on a balmy Saturday.

I killed* it.

*"Killing it" is New York agentese for hitting the bullseye.

Thus demonstrating the truth of my view: UKIP stories sell newspapers.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

ToryJim said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

MarqueeMark said:

HurstLlama said:

Sunil's Mum, for those that don't know is a formidable lady (she once told him to put his lap top away at the dinner table) of very definite political views. I regard her as both a national treasure and a bellwether for the next election.

I hope that pb.com can give her regular guest slots.... If Lord Ashcroft doesn't sign her up first.

Like all good Lefties, mum has a villa in Tuscany Kerala

Kerala, for those that aren't familiar, is India's most literate state and one of the few states where the BJP didn't win any seats.

I work with someone from that part of India and I just hope to God she isn't representative of the people from there as it would be a real shame.

ToryJim, don't believe I've had the pleasure!

Kerala's election result speaks for itself (20 seats):

12 seats for the lefty Congress and allies
8 seats for the even leftier Communists and allies
Nada, zip, squat for the BJP and allies.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_Indian_general_election,_2014

You have at a couple of the drinks at DD's

This girl/woman has the most atrocious attitude I have ever encountered. Know it all, hectoring, bossy, and utterly insufferably rude. I just hope it isn't a regional characteristic as it would be most unfortunate.

SeanT said:

ToryJim said:

SeanT said:

HurstLlama said:

SeanT said:

I f*cking nailed that UKIP blog. Just killed it.

Heh.

Does anyone have any idea what SeanT is talking about? Is he off on one again or is there actually a message in there?

2170 comments. 640 shares. So far. And it's not yet teatime on a balmy Saturday.

I killed* it.

*"Killing it" is New York agentese for hitting the bullseye.

I will point out that agreeing with someone doesn't necessarily make either of you correct

Earlier on someone tweeted this about my Telegraph column. I jest not:

"One of the best blogs of all time."

Clearly this is total, utter, hyperbolic nonsense but it is also, nonetheless, gratifying.

As I am sure OGH will confirm, blogging is an ephemeral and badly paid task (thank god for the thrillers and the travel journalism) but it's nice when you get a reaction.

I know. Blogging is often about being deliberately provocative or putting a different point of view across.

Well it's ComRes UKIP 35 +1, LAB 24, CON 20 -2, GR 7 +2, LD 6 -2

LD with 6% in the euro's might mean game over for Clegg.

Oh well, 1-0 3-2 to the Arsenal after extra time. Good match overall I thought!

Neil said:

UKIP at 35% for Euros 11 and 15 ahead of Labour and Tories respectively according to the news.

There's this on twitter: UKIP 35%, Lab 24%, Con 22%, LD 8%, Green 5%.

twitter.com/BakerUKIP/status/467600533948477440

Speedy said:

Well it's ComRes UKIP 35 +1, LAB 24, CON 20 -2, GR 7 +2, LD 6 -2

Others are at 8 last time they were at 18ish not sure all of the others are going to get squeezed quite that much. Think the diehards are sufficient that the Tory share won't drop below what they're polling here and may be higher so either Lab or UKIP are being overestimated.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/10838376/European-elections-Tories-leap-ahead-of-Ukip.html

LOL! 6% for Lib-Dems would be quite funny!

Speedy said:

LD with 6% in the euro's might mean game over for Clegg.

No way will he simply quit - he needs to be offered a job, probably European based, which he can't refuse but with sad misgivings, etc.

Charles said:

HurstLlama said:

SeanT said:

I f*cking nailed that UKIP blog. Just killed it.

Heh.

Does anyone have any idea what SeanT is talking about? Is he off on one again or is there actually a message in there?

He wrote a blog in the Telegraph criticising the LibLabConConspiracy against all true thinking Kippers (actually, he pointed out that some of the Kipper policies have significant support in opinion polls, but chose not to reflect on the fact that we elect representatives not delegates).

It seems to have proved quite popular amongst the Kipper fraternity and generated lots of shares which makes his editor happy

Mr Charles, thank you and thank you to others who answered my question, including Mr. T himself.

I did read Mr. T's piece this morning and thought it rather good, but my very limited knowledge of the Primrose Hill (borders) vernacular left me all at sea when faced with,

"I f*cking nailed that UKIP blog. Just killed it.

Heh."

MaxPB said:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/10838376/European-elections-Tories-leap-ahead-of-Ukip.html

Tories in the lead with ICM General Election wisdom poll as well.

So UKIP are either on 35 or 25, LAB is on 29 or 24 and CON on 26 or 20, but the only agreement is the dire state of the LDs on 7 and 6.

MaxPB said:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/10838376/European-elections-Tories-leap-ahead-of-Ukip.html

Crossover in ICM's Wisdom Index too:

ICM’s separate Wisdom Index poll put the Tories on 31.4 per cent, to Labour’s 30.7 per cent.

The slim lead of 0.7 points follows two polls last week which showed David Cameron’s party with a two-point advantage over Labour, his first poll lead since 2012.

The Liberal Democrats are on 15.1 per cent in the latest ICM results, ahead of the UK Independence Party on 13.4 per cent.

Trends and changes in the Wisdom Index ratings, which ask respondents to predict the next election result, tend to be less dramatic than conventional polls, which ask individuals how they personally intend to vote.

However, a clear pattern has emerged of declining support for Labour in recent weeks.

The previous ICM/Sunday Telegraph Wisdom Index survey, published on May 4, showed Labour’s lead cut to just one point. It has now disappeared.

The clear trend has been confirmed by the gold standard pollster.

Poor Basil.

Actually the changes for ICM since the last poll is LAB +5, CON -1, UKIP -1.

I said in in a previous thread. If the " party of in" loses all its MEPs then Clegg is a dead man. He might think losing over a third of councillors and all MELd isn't a resignation event but I'm confident his party will.

Clegg's "I won't resign of we lose" sounds as convincing as Cameron's "I won't resign if Scotland secedes" or Millars "I won't resign after insulting the Commons with my non-apology". The resignee very rarely is the actual decision maker.

SeanT said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Another week where ICM just screams wrong. Labour -12 last week was bonkers, Kippers in 3rd this week the same. It's not that one pollster is right and the others wrong, I just thing they struggle because they are trying to transpose 3 party GE votes 4 years ago into a 4 party world now and things are very very different.

Indeed. I wonder if ICM have lost the plot along the way. Their indyref polling is also a little suspect, and they admit they have problems doing the modelling.

As you say, perhaps ICM in particular find it hard to deal with multi-party politics after decades of Lib, Lab, Con.

Don't you mean LibLabCon?

ComRes tables. (Q.7, p.29)

http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/SM_IoS_Political_Poll_18th_May_2014_5837.pdf

MikeL said:

Speedy said:

Actually the changes for ICM since the last poll is LAB +5, CON -1, UKIP -1.

That's not what the Telegraph says.

That is from ICM from the Guardian http://www.icmresearch.com/data/media/pdf/2014_may_guardian_poll.pdf