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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » And now after five years the return of PB NightHawks
For many years a regular feature on PB was nighthawks – an overnight open thread. For some reason we stopped doing it and I am bringing it back following calls by a couple of longstanding PBers.
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First!
Like the USA0 -
Glorious!0
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Ok. I now feel weird. It is FIVE years since the last nighthawks? Where does the time go?8
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3 months in lockdown will go in a blink...rottenborough said:Ok. I now feel weird. It is FIVE years since the last nighthawks? Where does the time go?
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Random question: What do people think will happen to corporate April Fools jokes?
Will they be canned as not appropriate to the present circumstance?
Will there be many with a pandemic theme?0 -
Hurrah...its back....
Why did it go? Some of the finest pbCOM moments have been played out here....
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Depends whether I run out of bottled beer.FrancisUrquhart said:
3 months in lockdown will go in a blink...rottenborough said:Ok. I now feel weird. It is FIVE years since the last nighthawks? Where does the time go?
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Recipe for disaster for many companies if they get it wrong. I think if I ran a big corporation, I would probably stay clear.LostPassword said:Random question: What do people think will happen to corporate April Fools jokes?
Will they be canned as not appropriate to the present circumstance?
Will there be many with a pandemic theme?2 -
Let the gerrymandering commence!Big_G_NorthWales said:0 -
Johnson's lefty critics basically seem to be arguing that being locked down by the state and be made to queue to get into a supermarket was something that should be done sooner rather than later.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Hmm...0 -
long time lurker, tempted back. posted (and even wrote an article ten years ago). not sure why I'm posting again. Corona related I think. Current madness will either be seen as a monumental testament to modern ingenuity avoiding monumental death, or mass hysteria. Three years and we get the answer.
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Er, does this mean we are no longer constrained to stick rigidly to the thread header topic?7
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We’ll probably have some idiot policeman claiming it’s against the law.FrancisUrquhart said:
Recipe for disaster for many companies if they get it wrong. I think if I ran a big corporation, I would probably stay clear.LostPassword said:Random question: What do people think will happen to corporate April Fools jokes?
Will they be canned as not appropriate to the present circumstance?
Will there be many with a pandemic theme?0 -
I want the return of 8 smiling Gordons.
It's what the nation needs in these dark times.....2 -
The U.S. Just Signed A $450 Million Coronavirus Vaccine Contract With Johnson & Johnson
https://www.forbes.com/sites/thomasbrewster/2020/03/30/the-us-just-signed-a-450-million-coronavirus-vaccine-contract-with-johnson--johnson
Nearly a $1bn to be spent, but don't get your hopes up, they haven't even really started yet.0 -
Big_G_NorthWales said:
I thought Andy Burnham's measured approach to the Tories is the right tone...to things like HS2 and now Covid 19....
If Andy Burnham had won in 2015.......the last 5 years of British politics would have been profoundly different....for the Tories too...
Makes me even more angry with Corbyn et al....3 -
Ah yes. 2010 election. YouGov daily tracker.tyson said:Hurrah...its back....
Why did it go? Some of the finest pbCOM moments have been played out here....
'Wibbly wobbly Tory bottoms.'
'Cameron. Pledge a referendum on EU membership. NOW!'
'Osborne has to go.'
'That Michael Crick really is a...'
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I fear it might endure as another Y2K moment. All those who lack the knowledge of all the work that went into averting disaster and who have an axe to grind for or against a particular position or party will use any lack of hundreds of thousands of deaths as 'evidence' it was all a giant waste. Sadly and annoyingly many of those doing this will be from the more extreme elements of my own libertarian persuasion.blairf said:long time lurker, tempted back. posted (and even wrote an article ten years ago). not sure why I'm posting again. Corona related I think. Current madness will either be seen as a monumental testament to modern ingenuity avoiding monumental death, or mass hysteria. Three years and we get the answer.
Edit. Oh and very welcome back.4 -
Do we have a ballpark for the seats Tories would have gained/Labour would have lost in December on more updated boundaries?Big_G_NorthWales said:0 -
A lot of people are finding Hopper's painting particularly resonant at the moment. Cold War Steve has got in on some Hopper action.
https://twitter.com/Coldwar_Steve/status/1244680613283745792?s=20
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FINALLY.Benpointer said:Er, does this mean we are no longer constrained to stick rigidly to the thread header topic?
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Burnham should have tried to inspire the membership in 2015 and he might have won.tyson said:Big_G_NorthWales said:
I thought Andy Burnham's measured approach to the Tories is the right tone...to things like HS2 and now Covid 19....
If Andy Burnham had won in 2015.......the last 5 years of British politics would have been profoundly different....for the Tories too...
Makes me even more angry with Corbyn et al....1 -
Who knew ten years on we'd have voted for Boris to Get Brexit Done and instead he'd put us all under house arrest while the economy contracts by 15% in one quarter and thousands die of a deadly new virus!!!Stark_Dawning said:
Ah yes. 2010 election.tyson said:Hurrah...its back....
Why did it go? Some of the finest pbCOM moments have been played out here....
Fire Up The Quattro I'm going back to 2010!
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Sky business were discussing it today and it is not expected before mid 2021FrancisUrquhart said:The U.S. Just Signed A $450 Million Coronavirus Vaccine Contract With Johnson & Johnson
https://www.forbes.com/sites/thomasbrewster/2020/03/30/the-us-just-signed-a-450-million-coronavirus-vaccine-contract-with-johnson--johnson
Nearly a $1bn to be spent, but don't get your hopes up, they haven't even really started yet.0 -
look out for the ONS weekly death statistics published tomorrow (and every Tuesday) at 10 AM. These are the only indubitable facts we have in this. death demography is hard (part of my job but i'm no expert). it may turn out behavioural change washes out indirect/directs, competing causes and directs.Richard_Tyndall said:
I fear it might endure as another Y2K moment. All those who lack the knowledge of all the work that went into averting disaster and who have an axe to grind for or against a particular position or party will use any lack of hundreds of thousands of deaths as 'evidence' it was all a giant waste. Sadly and annoyingly many of those doing this will be from the more extreme elements of my own libertarian persuasion.blairf said:long time lurker, tempted back. posted (and even wrote an article ten years ago). not sure why I'm posting again. Corona related I think. Current madness will either be seen as a monumental testament to modern ingenuity avoiding monumental death, or mass hysteria. Three years and we get the answer.
Edit. Oh and very welcome back.
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I am not sure I can manage until mid 2021 to have another drink or chocolate bar...Big_G_NorthWales said:
Sky business were discussing it today and it is not expected before mid 2021FrancisUrquhart said:The U.S. Just Signed A $450 Million Coronavirus Vaccine Contract With Johnson & Johnson
https://www.forbes.com/sites/thomasbrewster/2020/03/30/the-us-just-signed-a-450-million-coronavirus-vaccine-contract-with-johnson--johnson
Nearly a $1bn to be spent, but don't get your hopes up, they haven't even really started yet.0 -
He took his foot off the pedal once he heard that HYUFD was backing him.SandyRentool said:
Burnham should have tried to inspire the membership in 2015 and he might have won.tyson said:Big_G_NorthWales said:
I thought Andy Burnham's measured approach to the Tories is the right tone...to things like HS2 and now Covid 19....
If Andy Burnham had won in 2015.......the last 5 years of British politics would have been profoundly different....for the Tories too...
Makes me even more angry with Corbyn et al....1 -
Instead of asking how folks would vote in a nonexistent election, are any of the posters asking their panel how many have had C19 symptoms?
Not quite an antibody test, but better than nowt.0 -
A technical question: let us say a significant proportion of the population develops immunity and there is no vaccine. What happens to people who are at high risk if they do catch it? How do they benefit? There is still no cure, the risk of death is great. So do they have to stay isolated for ever?Richard_Tyndall said:
I fear it might endure as another Y2K moment. All those who lack the knowledge of all the work that went into averting disaster and who have an axe to grind for or against a particular position or party will use any lack of hundreds of thousands of deaths as 'evidence' it was all a giant waste. Sadly and annoyingly many of those doing this will be from the more extreme elements of my own libertarian persuasion.blairf said:long time lurker, tempted back. posted (and even wrote an article ten years ago). not sure why I'm posting again. Corona related I think. Current madness will either be seen as a monumental testament to modern ingenuity avoiding monumental death, or mass hysteria. Three years and we get the answer.
Edit. Oh and very welcome back.0 -
that will be being polled. 100% stone cold guarantee. by many parties. my anecdata is that this is rife in London ~10% based on aforementioned anecdata.SandyRentool said:Instead of asking how folks would vote in a nonexistent election, are any of the posters asking their panel how many have had C19 symptoms?
Not quite an antibody test, but better than nowt.0 -
Didn't Burnham run in 2016 not 2015?tyson said:Big_G_NorthWales said:
I thought Andy Burnham's measured approach to the Tories is the right tone...to things like HS2 and now Covid 19....
If Andy Burnham had won in 2015.......the last 5 years of British politics would have been profoundly different....for the Tories too...
Makes me even more angry with Corbyn et al....
Ed Balls the best choice in 2010?0 -
Wow, I had totally forgotten about PB Nighthawks.0
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wow just wow - Trump Presser0
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I dont think that possible. If immunity is long lasting then a vaccine is possible.Cyclefree said:
A technical question: let us say a significant proportion of the population develops immunity and there is no vaccine. What happens to people who are at high risk if they do catch it? How do they benefit? There is still no cure, the risk of death is great. So do they have to stay isolated for ever?Richard_Tyndall said:
I fear it might endure as another Y2K moment. All those who lack the knowledge of all the work that went into averting disaster and who have an axe to grind for or against a particular position or party will use any lack of hundreds of thousands of deaths as 'evidence' it was all a giant waste. Sadly and annoyingly many of those doing this will be from the more extreme elements of my own libertarian persuasion.blairf said:long time lurker, tempted back. posted (and even wrote an article ten years ago). not sure why I'm posting again. Corona related I think. Current madness will either be seen as a monumental testament to modern ingenuity avoiding monumental death, or mass hysteria. Three years and we get the answer.
Edit. Oh and very welcome back.0 -
what's he done now?Floater said:wow just wow - Trump Presser
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BBC's Sophie Hutchinson still telling us viral load is the amount of virus you get infected with.0
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I really don’t think I can face being locked up for 15 - 18 months.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Sky business were discussing it today and it is not expected before mid 2021FrancisUrquhart said:The U.S. Just Signed A $450 Million Coronavirus Vaccine Contract With Johnson & Johnson
https://www.forbes.com/sites/thomasbrewster/2020/03/30/the-us-just-signed-a-450-million-coronavirus-vaccine-contract-with-johnson--johnson
Nearly a $1bn to be spent, but don't get your hopes up, they haven't even really started yet.0 -
no. as immunity develops, the chance of the vulnerable meeting someone actively spreading goes down. So they can venture out. this depends on the 'herd immunity' which has got kinda a bad name, but is where we all end up (absent a vaccine)Cyclefree said:
A technical question: let us say a significant proportion of the population develops immunity and there is no vaccine. What happens to people who are at high risk if they do catch it? How do they benefit? There is still no cure, the risk of death is great. So do they have to stay isolated for ever?Richard_Tyndall said:
I fear it might endure as another Y2K moment. All those who lack the knowledge of all the work that went into averting disaster and who have an axe to grind for or against a particular position or party will use any lack of hundreds of thousands of deaths as 'evidence' it was all a giant waste. Sadly and annoyingly many of those doing this will be from the more extreme elements of my own libertarian persuasion.blairf said:long time lurker, tempted back. posted (and even wrote an article ten years ago). not sure why I'm posting again. Corona related I think. Current madness will either be seen as a monumental testament to modern ingenuity avoiding monumental death, or mass hysteria. Three years and we get the answer.
Edit. Oh and very welcome back.0 -
That is my fear. We are slipping into a dystopia with the best of intentions.Cyclefree said:
A technical question: let us say a significant proportion of the population develops immunity and there is no vaccine. What happens to people who are at high risk if they do catch it? How do they benefit? There is still no cure, the risk of death is great. So do they have to stay isolated for ever?Richard_Tyndall said:
I fear it might endure as another Y2K moment. All those who lack the knowledge of all the work that went into averting disaster and who have an axe to grind for or against a particular position or party will use any lack of hundreds of thousands of deaths as 'evidence' it was all a giant waste. Sadly and annoyingly many of those doing this will be from the more extreme elements of my own libertarian persuasion.blairf said:long time lurker, tempted back. posted (and even wrote an article ten years ago). not sure why I'm posting again. Corona related I think. Current madness will either be seen as a monumental testament to modern ingenuity avoiding monumental death, or mass hysteria. Three years and we get the answer.
Edit. Oh and very welcome back.0 -
True, but I'd rather have a 10% chance of dying after a 5% chance of catching it than a 10% chance of dying after a 50% chance of catching it.Cyclefree said:
A technical question: let us say a significant proportion of the population develops immunity and there is no vaccine. What happens to people who are at high risk if they do catch it? How do they benefit? There is still no cure, the risk of death is great. So do they have to stay isolated for ever?Richard_Tyndall said:
I fear it might endure as another Y2K moment. All those who lack the knowledge of all the work that went into averting disaster and who have an axe to grind for or against a particular position or party will use any lack of hundreds of thousands of deaths as 'evidence' it was all a giant waste. Sadly and annoyingly many of those doing this will be from the more extreme elements of my own libertarian persuasion.blairf said:long time lurker, tempted back. posted (and even wrote an article ten years ago). not sure why I'm posting again. Corona related I think. Current madness will either be seen as a monumental testament to modern ingenuity avoiding monumental death, or mass hysteria. Three years and we get the answer.
Edit. Oh and very welcome back.0 -
The theory is that the more people who have had it and have immunity, the less likely it is to spread and reach those who lack immunity. My understanding is that in cases like Italy it is the swamping of the ICU system that has led to a higher proportion of deaths. So I would suppose that overall the chances of both catching it and subsequently dying from it are much reduced if you still lack immunity.Cyclefree said:
A technical question: let us say a significant proportion of the population develops immunity and there is no vaccine. What happens to people who are at high risk if they do catch it? How do they benefit? There is still no cure, the risk of death is great. So do they have to stay isolated for ever?Richard_Tyndall said:
I fear it might endure as another Y2K moment. All those who lack the knowledge of all the work that went into averting disaster and who have an axe to grind for or against a particular position or party will use any lack of hundreds of thousands of deaths as 'evidence' it was all a giant waste. Sadly and annoyingly many of those doing this will be from the more extreme elements of my own libertarian persuasion.blairf said:long time lurker, tempted back. posted (and even wrote an article ten years ago). not sure why I'm posting again. Corona related I think. Current madness will either be seen as a monumental testament to modern ingenuity avoiding monumental death, or mass hysteria. Three years and we get the answer.
Edit. Oh and very welcome back.
But that is a very cautious layman's interpretation and could be very wide of the mark.0 -
That's neither practicable nor desirable imo.Cyclefree said:
A technical question: let us say a significant proportion of the population develops immunity and there is no vaccine. What happens to people who are at high risk if they do catch it? How do they benefit? There is still no cure, the risk of death is great. So do they have to stay isolated for ever?Richard_Tyndall said:
I fear it might endure as another Y2K moment. All those who lack the knowledge of all the work that went into averting disaster and who have an axe to grind for or against a particular position or party will use any lack of hundreds of thousands of deaths as 'evidence' it was all a giant waste. Sadly and annoyingly many of those doing this will be from the more extreme elements of my own libertarian persuasion.blairf said:long time lurker, tempted back. posted (and even wrote an article ten years ago). not sure why I'm posting again. Corona related I think. Current madness will either be seen as a monumental testament to modern ingenuity avoiding monumental death, or mass hysteria. Three years and we get the answer.
Edit. Oh and very welcome back.
We just have to hope the levels requiring ICU remain manageable and presumably treatment regimes will improve as medical teams learn what works best.0 -
It was interesting to see someone had posted similar stats from Spanish regions on here earlier today. They were terrifying.blairf said:
look out for the ONS weekly death statistics published tomorrow (and every Tuesday) at 10 AM. These are the only indubitable facts we have in this. death demography is hard (part of my job but i'm no expert). it may turn out behavioural change washes out indirect/directs, competing causes and directs.Richard_Tyndall said:
I fear it might endure as another Y2K moment. All those who lack the knowledge of all the work that went into averting disaster and who have an axe to grind for or against a particular position or party will use any lack of hundreds of thousands of deaths as 'evidence' it was all a giant waste. Sadly and annoyingly many of those doing this will be from the more extreme elements of my own libertarian persuasion.blairf said:long time lurker, tempted back. posted (and even wrote an article ten years ago). not sure why I'm posting again. Corona related I think. Current madness will either be seen as a monumental testament to modern ingenuity avoiding monumental death, or mass hysteria. Three years and we get the answer.
Edit. Oh and very welcome back.0 -
All candidates except Corbyn pivoted to austerity light.SandyRentool said:
Burnham should have tried to inspire the membership in 2015 and he might have won.tyson said:Big_G_NorthWales said:
I thought Andy Burnham's measured approach to the Tories is the right tone...to things like HS2 and now Covid 19....
If Andy Burnham had won in 2015.......the last 5 years of British politics would have been profoundly different....for the Tories too...
Makes me even more angry with Corbyn et al....
I was going to vote Burnham until he joined YC and L4%K in dropping opposition to austerity.0 -
That’s my understanding too. By reducing the chance of their getting it, we make sure we have the capacity to cope with those that do.Richard_Tyndall said:
The theory is that the more people who have had it and have immunity, the less likely it is to spread and reach those who lack immunity. My understanding is that in cases like Italy it is the swamping of the ICU system that has led to a higher proportion of deaths. So I would suppose that overall the chances of both catching it and subsequently dying from it are much reduced if you still lack immunity.Cyclefree said:
A technical question: let us say a significant proportion of the population develops immunity and there is no vaccine. What happens to people who are at high risk if they do catch it? How do they benefit? There is still no cure, the risk of death is great. So do they have to stay isolated for ever?Richard_Tyndall said:
I fear it might endure as another Y2K moment. All those who lack the knowledge of all the work that went into averting disaster and who have an axe to grind for or against a particular position or party will use any lack of hundreds of thousands of deaths as 'evidence' it was all a giant waste. Sadly and annoyingly many of those doing this will be from the more extreme elements of my own libertarian persuasion.blairf said:long time lurker, tempted back. posted (and even wrote an article ten years ago). not sure why I'm posting again. Corona related I think. Current madness will either be seen as a monumental testament to modern ingenuity avoiding monumental death, or mass hysteria. Three years and we get the answer.
Edit. Oh and very welcome back.
But that is a very cautious layman's interpretation and could be very wide of the mark.0 -
Why did NightHawks ever disappear from PB? That's the big question.0
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As I understand the numbers, herd immunity is achieved at 40% of the population. COVID19 mortality is unknown but it is greater by an order of magnitude than flu, which is also very infectious, and less than SARS, which is much less infectious. Probably 1% to 3%. This means, I think, a quarter of a million or so people need to die in the UK before we reach herd immunity.Cyclefree said:
A technical question: let us say a significant proportion of the population develops immunity and there is no vaccine. What happens to people who are at high risk if they do catch it? How do they benefit? There is still no cure, the risk of death is great. So do they have to stay isolated for ever?Richard_Tyndall said:
I fear it might endure as another Y2K moment. All those who lack the knowledge of all the work that went into averting disaster and who have an axe to grind for or against a particular position or party will use any lack of hundreds of thousands of deaths as 'evidence' it was all a giant waste. Sadly and annoyingly many of those doing this will be from the more extreme elements of my own libertarian persuasion.blairf said:long time lurker, tempted back. posted (and even wrote an article ten years ago). not sure why I'm posting again. Corona related I think. Current madness will either be seen as a monumental testament to modern ingenuity avoiding monumental death, or mass hysteria. Three years and we get the answer.
Edit. Oh and very welcome back.
This death is a somewhat horrible one. Currently the hospital system is coping after seeing 1400 deaths. We are talking about a scale of need that is 100 times bigger. The effect on the healthcare system is unimaginable.
We need a vaccine. Failing that we need to isolate the infected from the uninfected and the vulnerable from everyone else. And we need to test, test and test.0 -
Owen Smith ran in 2016.Foxy said:
Didn't Burnham run in 2016 not 2015?tyson said:Big_G_NorthWales said:
I thought Andy Burnham's measured approach to the Tories is the right tone...to things like HS2 and now Covid 19....
If Andy Burnham had won in 2015.......the last 5 years of British politics would have been profoundly different....for the Tories too...
Makes me even more angry with Corbyn et al....
Ed Balls the best choice in 2010?0 -
No, 2016 was Owen Jones.Foxy said:
Didn't Burnham run in 2016 not 2015?tyson said:Big_G_NorthWales said:
I thought Andy Burnham's measured approach to the Tories is the right tone...to things like HS2 and now Covid 19....
If Andy Burnham had won in 2015.......the last 5 years of British politics would have been profoundly different....for the Tories too...
Makes me even more angry with Corbyn et al....
Ed Balls the best choice in 2010?
I mean Owen Smith. Near enough.0 -
I thought it was 60%? Although of course in reality it’s a sliding scale.FF43 said:
As I understand the numbers, herd immunity is achieved at 40% of the population. COVID19 mortality is unknown but it is greater by an order of magnitude than flu, which is also very infectious, and less than SARS, which is much less infectious. Probably 1% to 3%. This means, I think, a quarter of a million or so people need to die in the UK before we reach herd immunity.Cyclefree said:
A technical question: let us say a significant proportion of the population develops immunity and there is no vaccine. What happens to people who are at high risk if they do catch it? How do they benefit? There is still no cure, the risk of death is great. So do they have to stay isolated for ever?Richard_Tyndall said:
I fear it might endure as another Y2K moment. All those who lack the knowledge of all the work that went into averting disaster and who have an axe to grind for or against a particular position or party will use any lack of hundreds of thousands of deaths as 'evidence' it was all a giant waste. Sadly and annoyingly many of those doing this will be from the more extreme elements of my own libertarian persuasion.blairf said:long time lurker, tempted back. posted (and even wrote an article ten years ago). not sure why I'm posting again. Corona related I think. Current madness will either be seen as a monumental testament to modern ingenuity avoiding monumental death, or mass hysteria. Three years and we get the answer.
Edit. Oh and very welcome back.
This death is a somewhat horrible one. Currently the hospital system is coping after seeing 1400 deaths. We are talking about a scale of need that is 100 times bigger. The effect on the healthcare system is unimaginable.
We need a vaccine. Failing that we need to isolate the infected from the uninfected and the vulnerable from everyone else. And we need to test, test and test.0 -
Local news talking about improved air quality as roads empty.
Electric cars can't come soon enough.0 -
Anyone concerned that the current situation might be used as a reason to threaten civil liberties in the future won't be reassured by this new Jeremy Cliffe article in the New Statesman.
https://www.newstatesman.com/science-tech/2020/03/rise-bio-surveillance-state0 -
Yes, it is all coming back to me now.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Owen Smith ran in 2016.Foxy said:
Didn't Burnham run in 2016 not 2015?tyson said:Big_G_NorthWales said:
I thought Andy Burnham's measured approach to the Tories is the right tone...to things like HS2 and now Covid 19....
If Andy Burnham had won in 2015.......the last 5 years of British politics would have been profoundly different....for the Tories too...
Makes me even more angry with Corbyn et al....
Ed Balls the best choice in 2010?0 -
OK. Time for bed. Food delivery coming tomorrow. Sadly it is all healthy and nutritious.
Stay safe comrades.0 -
Bloody hell. Was nighthawks really 5 years ago?
Damn I’m getting old!3 -
Given the state of my lungs I probably have a very high chance of dying if I catch it. So until and unless a vaccine is developed I am going to have to live the life of a recluse. That does not fill me with a lot of hope. Life without seeing my family is not really worth living TBH.eristdoof said:
True, but I'd rather have a 10% chance of dying after a 5% chance of catching it than a 10% chance of dying after a 50% chance of catching it.Cyclefree said:
A technical question: let us say a significant proportion of the population develops immunity and there is no vaccine. What happens to people who are at high risk if they do catch it? How do they benefit? There is still no cure, the risk of death is great. So do they have to stay isolated for ever?Richard_Tyndall said:
I fear it might endure as another Y2K moment. All those who lack the knowledge of all the work that went into averting disaster and who have an axe to grind for or against a particular position or party will use any lack of hundreds of thousands of deaths as 'evidence' it was all a giant waste. Sadly and annoyingly many of those doing this will be from the more extreme elements of my own libertarian persuasion.blairf said:long time lurker, tempted back. posted (and even wrote an article ten years ago). not sure why I'm posting again. Corona related I think. Current madness will either be seen as a monumental testament to modern ingenuity avoiding monumental death, or mass hysteria. Three years and we get the answer.
Edit. Oh and very welcome back.
I am not going to criticise the government as I am sure that there must be much work going on that we are not aware of, particularly from experts. I just don’t understand what the long-term strategy is - saving the NHS is all very well - but in the end isn’t the strategy the same as it’s always been - “herd immunity” but just over a long time frame. I wish I knew what the strategy is for at risk people other than just hiding them away.0 -
https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1244739955731107840?s=19Cyclefree said:
What’s the fool saying now?Floater said:wow just wow - Trump Presser
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"On Monday, former supreme court justice Lord Sumption said that excessive measures were in danger of turning Britain into a “police state”, singling out Derbyshire police – which deployed drones and dyed a lagoon black – for “trying to shame people in using their undoubted right to take exercise in the country and wrecking beauty spots in the fells”."
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/mar/30/uk-police-guidelines-coronavirus-lockdown-enforcement-powers-following-criticism-lord-sumption0 -
every toy model i've seen suggests the absolute best course is isolating the infected. virtual leper colonies. you can achieve this brutally or not. but that is the No. 1 successful strategy from all the toy models i've seen. and toy models have a habit of being close to the most sophisticated ones.FF43 said:
As I understand the numbers, herd immunity is achieved at 40% of the population. COVID19 mortality is unknown but it is greater by an order of magnitude than flu, which is also very infectious, and less than SARS, which is much less infectious. Probably 1% to 3%. This means, I think, a quarter of a million or so people need to die in the UK before we reach herd immunity.Cyclefree said:
A technical question: let us say a significant proportion of the population develops immunity and there is no vaccine. What happens to people who are at high risk if they do catch it? How do they benefit? There is still no cure, the risk of death is great. So do they have to stay isolated for ever?Richard_Tyndall said:
I fear it might endure as another Y2K moment. All those who lack the knowledge of all the work that went into averting disaster and who have an axe to grind for or against a particular position or party will use any lack of hundreds of thousands of deaths as 'evidence' it was all a giant waste. Sadly and annoyingly many of those doing this will be from the more extreme elements of my own libertarian persuasion.blairf said:long time lurker, tempted back. posted (and even wrote an article ten years ago). not sure why I'm posting again. Corona related I think. Current madness will either be seen as a monumental testament to modern ingenuity avoiding monumental death, or mass hysteria. Three years and we get the answer.
Edit. Oh and very welcome back.
This death is a somewhat horrible one. Currently the hospital system is coping after seeing 1400 deaths. We are talking about a scale of need that is 100 times bigger. The effect on the healthcare system is unimaginable.
We need a vaccine. Failing that we need to isolate the infected from the uninfected and the vulnerable from everyone else. And we need to test, test and test.1 -
I think the idea that future governments will want to repeat this nightmare for made up reasons is silly.Andy_JS said:Anyone concerned that the current situation might be used as a reason to threaten civil liberties in the future won't be reassured by this new Jeremy Cliffe article in the New Statesman.
https://www.newstatesman.com/science-tech/2020/03/rise-bio-surveillance-state
In a few weeks we're going to see near economic oblivion due to this virus and lock-down.
No government in their right mind will want to see a repeat of this in the next one hundred years... And despite the current poll rating I still the the Tories are done for at the next election as no government will survive this levels of economic catastrophe.0 -
Emily has very big hair on Newsnight!0
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I am sure L4%K means something to the initiated...bigjohnowls said:
All candidates except Corbyn pivoted to austerity light.SandyRentool said:
Burnham should have tried to inspire the membership in 2015 and he might have won.tyson said:Big_G_NorthWales said:
I thought Andy Burnham's measured approach to the Tories is the right tone...to things like HS2 and now Covid 19....
If Andy Burnham had won in 2015.......the last 5 years of British politics would have been profoundly different....for the Tories too...
Makes me even more angry with Corbyn et al....
I was going to vote Burnham until he joined YC and L4%K in dropping opposition to austerity.0 -
Have we heard from @Beverley_C since this morning?0
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They have access to healthcare, including ICU'sCyclefree said:
A technical question: let us say a significant proportion of the population develops immunity and there is no vaccine. What happens to people who are at high risk if they do catch it? How do they benefit? There is still no cure, the risk of death is great. So do they have to stay isolated for ever?Richard_Tyndall said:
I fear it might endure as another Y2K moment. All those who lack the knowledge of all the work that went into averting disaster and who have an axe to grind for or against a particular position or party will use any lack of hundreds of thousands of deaths as 'evidence' it was all a giant waste. Sadly and annoyingly many of those doing this will be from the more extreme elements of my own libertarian persuasion.blairf said:long time lurker, tempted back. posted (and even wrote an article ten years ago). not sure why I'm posting again. Corona related I think. Current madness will either be seen as a monumental testament to modern ingenuity avoiding monumental death, or mass hysteria. Three years and we get the answer.
Edit. Oh and very welcome back.
0 -
Sorry you're right I got the percentages the wrong way round. So approximately 400 000 deaths are needed to get to herd immunity at 1% mortality, I reckon.IanB2 said:
I thought it was 60%? Although of course in reality it’s a sliding scale.FF43 said:
As I understand the numbers, herd immunity is achieved at 40% of the population. COVID19 mortality is unknown but it is greater by an order of magnitude than flu, which is also very infectious, and less than SARS, which is much less infectious. Probably 1% to 3%. This means, I think, a quarter of a million or so people need to die in the UK before we reach herd immunity.Cyclefree said:
A technical question: let us say a significant proportion of the population develops immunity and there is no vaccine. What happens to people who are at high risk if they do catch it? How do they benefit? There is still no cure, the risk of death is great. So do they have to stay isolated for ever?Richard_Tyndall said:
I fear it might endure as another Y2K moment. All those who lack the knowledge of all the work that went into averting disaster and who have an axe to grind for or against a particular position or party will use any lack of hundreds of thousands of deaths as 'evidence' it was all a giant waste. Sadly and annoyingly many of those doing this will be from the more extreme elements of my own libertarian persuasion.blairf said:long time lurker, tempted back. posted (and even wrote an article ten years ago). not sure why I'm posting again. Corona related I think. Current madness will either be seen as a monumental testament to modern ingenuity avoiding monumental death, or mass hysteria. Three years and we get the answer.
Edit. Oh and very welcome back.
This death is a somewhat horrible one. Currently the hospital system is coping after seeing 1400 deaths. We are talking about a scale of need that is 100 times bigger. The effect on the healthcare system is unimaginable.
We need a vaccine. Failing that we need to isolate the infected from the uninfected and the vulnerable from everyone else. And we need to test, test and test.0 -
Poor, poor Spain
Spain 87,956 +7,846 7,716 +9130 -
Question: If Capitalism is so good why does it need to be bailed out with Socialism every 10 years or so?0
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As well as the possibility of vaccine, there is the development of effective treatments. Perhaps targeted antivirals, perhaps monoclonal antibodies, or simply convalescent serum. In addition the virus could just Peter out or become less virulent. Where there is life, there is hope. Hang in there @Cyclefree.Cyclefree said:
Given the state of my lungs I probably have a very high chance of dying if I catch it. So until and unless a vaccine is developed I am going to have to live the life of a recluse. That does not fill me with a lot of hope. Life without seeing my family is not really worth living TBH.eristdoof said:
True, but I'd rather have a 10% chance of dying after a 5% chance of catching it than a 10% chance of dying after a 50% chance of catching it.Cyclefree said:
A technical question: let us say a significant proportion of the population develops immunity and there is no vaccine. What happens to people who are at high risk if they do catch it? How do they benefit? There is still no cure, the risk of death is great. So do they have to stay isolated for ever?Richard_Tyndall said:
I fear it might endure as another Y2K moment. All those who lack the knowledge of all the work that went into averting disaster and who have an axe to grind for or against a particular position or party will use any lack of hundreds of thousands of deaths as 'evidence' it was all a giant waste. Sadly and annoyingly many of those doing this will be from the more extreme elements of my own libertarian persuasion.blairf said:long time lurker, tempted back. posted (and even wrote an article ten years ago). not sure why I'm posting again. Corona related I think. Current madness will either be seen as a monumental testament to modern ingenuity avoiding monumental death, or mass hysteria. Three years and we get the answer.
Edit. Oh and very welcome back.
I am not going to criticise the government as I am sure that there must be much work going on that we are not aware of, particularly from experts. I just don’t understand what the long-term strategy is - saving the NHS is all very well - but in the end isn’t the strategy the same as it’s always been - “herd immunity” but just over a long time frame. I wish I knew what the strategy is for at risk people other than just hiding them away.4 -
Without a vaccine there can be no other strategy. And one of the reasons they are discussing things like herd immunity is that vaccines for things like Coronaviruses are extremely difficult to develop. There was a lot of progress made on a SARS vaccine but it never got to the point of human testing so to date we have no vaccine for either SARS or MERS.Cyclefree said:
Given the state of my lungs I probably have a very high chance of dying if I catch it. So until and unless a vaccine is developed I am going to have to live the life of a recluse. That does not fill me with a lot of hope. Life without seeing my family is not really worth living TBH.eristdoof said:
True, but I'd rather have a 10% chance of dying after a 5% chance of catching it than a 10% chance of dying after a 50% chance of catching it.Cyclefree said:
A technical question: let us say a significant proportion of the population develops immunity and there is no vaccine. What happens to people who are at high risk if they do catch it? How do they benefit? There is still no cure, the risk of death is great. So do they have to stay isolated for ever?Richard_Tyndall said:
I fear it might endure as another Y2K moment. All those who lack the knowledge of all the work that went into averting disaster and who have an axe to grind for or against a particular position or party will use any lack of hundreds of thousands of deaths as 'evidence' it was all a giant waste. Sadly and annoyingly many of those doing this will be from the more extreme elements of my own libertarian persuasion.blairf said:long time lurker, tempted back. posted (and even wrote an article ten years ago). not sure why I'm posting again. Corona related I think. Current madness will either be seen as a monumental testament to modern ingenuity avoiding monumental death, or mass hysteria. Three years and we get the answer.
Edit. Oh and very welcome back.
I am not going to criticise the government as I am sure that there must be much work going on that we are not aware of, particularly from experts. I just don’t understand what the long-term strategy is - saving the NHS is all very well - but in the end isn’t the strategy the same as it’s always been - “herd immunity” but just over a long time frame. I wish I knew what the strategy is for at risk people other than just hiding them away.
That is not to say we won't get one for COVID-19 but those talking with near certainty of one being developed any time soon are perhaps being over optimistic.0 -
I blame CNN.Andy_JS said:Why did NightHawks ever disappear from PB? That's the big question.
0 -
Both my mum and my father-in-law would be in the category that would need to be permanently isolated.blairf said:
every toy model i've seen suggests the absolute best course is isolating the infected. virtual leper colonies. you can achieve this brutally or not. but that is the No. 1 successful strategy from all the toy models i've seen. and toy models have a habit of being close to the most sophisticated ones.FF43 said:
As I understand the numbers, herd immunity is achieved at 40% of the population. COVID19 mortality is unknown but it is greater by an order of magnitude than flu, which is also very infectious, and less than SARS, which is much less infectious. Probably 1% to 3%. This means, I think, a quarter of a million or so people need to die in the UK before we reach herd immunity.Cyclefree said:
A technical question: let us say a significant proportion of the population develops immunity and there is no vaccine. What happens to people who are at high risk if they do catch it? How do they benefit? There is still no cure, the risk of death is great. So do they have to stay isolated for ever?Richard_Tyndall said:
I fear it might endure as another Y2K moment. All those who lack the knowledge of all the work that went into averting disaster and who have an axe to grind for or against a particular position or party will use any lack of hundreds of thousands of deaths as 'evidence' it was all a giant waste. Sadly and annoyingly many of those doing this will be from the more extreme elements of my own libertarian persuasion.blairf said:long time lurker, tempted back. posted (and even wrote an article ten years ago). not sure why I'm posting again. Corona related I think. Current madness will either be seen as a monumental testament to modern ingenuity avoiding monumental death, or mass hysteria. Three years and we get the answer.
Edit. Oh and very welcome back.
This death is a somewhat horrible one. Currently the hospital system is coping after seeing 1400 deaths. We are talking about a scale of need that is 100 times bigger. The effect on the healthcare system is unimaginable.
We need a vaccine. Failing that we need to isolate the infected from the uninfected and the vulnerable from everyone else. And we need to test, test and test.
And it would utterly destroy them; it's not a long-term option.
Both are in in their 80s - they would happily take their chances to experience a bit of libery and social contact. It's as much as we can do to get them to accept a short-term isolation.0 -
The sky is so clear now, I've never seen the North Star so bright before.rottenborough said:Local news talking about improved air quality as roads empty.
Electric cars can't come soon enough.0 -
Was just thinking the samerottenborough said:Have we heard from @Beverley_C since this morning?
0 -
What does this “coping” consist of? There is no cure. “Coping” just seems to be a polite way of saying that those admitted to hospital die in beds rather than on trollies or on the floor.IanB2 said:
That’s my understanding too. By reducing the chance of their getting it, we make sure we have the capacity to cope with those that do.Richard_Tyndall said:
The theory is that the more people who have had it and have immunity, the less likely it is to spread and reach those who lack immunity. My understanding is that in cases like Italy it is the swamping of the ICU system that has led to a higher proportion of deaths. So I would suppose that overall the chances of both catching it and subsequently dying from it are much reduced if you still lack immunity.Cyclefree said:
A technical question: let us say a significant proportion of the population develops immunity and there is no vaccine. What happens to people who are at high risk if they do catch it? How do they benefit? There is still no cure, the risk of death is great. So do they have to stay isolated for ever?Richard_Tyndall said:
I fear it might endure as another Y2K moment. All those who lack the knowledge of all the work that went into averting disaster and who have an axe to grind for or against a particular position or party will use any lack of hundreds of thousands of deaths as 'evidence' it was all a giant waste. Sadly and annoyingly many of those doing this will be from the more extreme elements of my own libertarian persuasion.blairf said:long time lurker, tempted back. posted (and even wrote an article ten years ago). not sure why I'm posting again. Corona related I think. Current madness will either be seen as a monumental testament to modern ingenuity avoiding monumental death, or mass hysteria. Three years and we get the answer.
Edit. Oh and very welcome back.
But that is a very cautious layman's interpretation and could be very wide of the mark.
And what does the “testing” actually achieve? Not saying it’s wrong or unnecessary but what is it for, exactly?0 -
Hope she is ok.Floater said:
Was just thinking the samerottenborough said:Have we heard from @Beverley_C since this morning?
0 -
Regarding Boris’ great leader ratings... he has provided, by design or accident, exactly what a large percentage of the country want - social democracy inside closed borders. The reason neither side can usually win big majorities is they promise one or the other.0
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So it turns out that socialised medicine was a massive strategic advantage. Who knew?1
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Surely the long-term strategy has to be develop a vaccine.Cyclefree said:
Given the state of my lungs I probably have a very high chance of dying if I catch it. So until and unless a vaccine is developed I am going to have to live the life of a recluse. That does not fill me with a lot of hope. Life without seeing my family is not really worth living TBH.eristdoof said:
True, but I'd rather have a 10% chance of dying after a 5% chance of catching it than a 10% chance of dying after a 50% chance of catching it.Cyclefree said:
A technical question: let us say a significant proportion of the population develops immunity and there is no vaccine. What happens to people who are at high risk if they do catch it? How do they benefit? There is still no cure, the risk of death is great. So do they have to stay isolated for ever?Richard_Tyndall said:
I fear it might endure as another Y2K moment. All those who lack the knowledge of all the work that went into averting disaster and who have an axe to grind for or against a particular position or party will use any lack of hundreds of thousands of deaths as 'evidence' it was all a giant waste. Sadly and annoyingly many of those doing this will be from the more extreme elements of my own libertarian persuasion.blairf said:long time lurker, tempted back. posted (and even wrote an article ten years ago). not sure why I'm posting again. Corona related I think. Current madness will either be seen as a monumental testament to modern ingenuity avoiding monumental death, or mass hysteria. Three years and we get the answer.
Edit. Oh and very welcome back.
I am not going to criticise the government as I am sure that there must be much work going on that we are not aware of, particularly from experts. I just don’t understand what the long-term strategy is - saving the NHS is all very well - but in the end isn’t the strategy the same as it’s always been - “herd immunity” but just over a long time frame. I wish I knew what the strategy is for at risk people other than just hiding them away.0 -
we just don't know! the modelling is exquisitely sensitive to many parameters we just don't have. test... test... test... data... data... data.FF43 said:
Sorry you're right I got the percentages the wrong way round. So approximately 400 000 deaths are needed to get to herd immunity at 1% mortality, I reckon.IanB2 said:
I thought it was 60%? Although of course in reality it’s a sliding scale.FF43 said:
As I understand the numbers, herd immunity is achieved at 40% of the population. COVID19 mortality is unknown but it is greater by an order of magnitude than flu, which is also very infectious, and less than SARS, which is much less infectious. Probably 1% to 3%. This means, I think, a quarter of a million or so people need to die in the UK before we reach herd immunity.Cyclefree said:
A technical question: let us say a significant proportion of the population develops immunity and there is no vaccine. What happens to people who are at high risk if they do catch it? How do they benefit? There is still no cure, the risk of death is great. So do they have to stay isolated for ever?Richard_Tyndall said:
I fear it might endure as another Y2K moment. All those who lack the knowledge of all the work that went into averting disaster and who have an axe to grind for or against a particular position or party will use any lack of hundreds of thousands of deaths as 'evidence' it was all a giant waste. Sadly and annoyingly many of those doing this will be from the more extreme elements of my own libertarian persuasion.blairf said:long time lurker, tempted back. posted (and even wrote an article ten years ago). not sure why I'm posting again. Corona related I think. Current madness will either be seen as a monumental testament to modern ingenuity avoiding monumental death, or mass hysteria. Three years and we get the answer.
Edit. Oh and very welcome back.
This death is a somewhat horrible one. Currently the hospital system is coping after seeing 1400 deaths. We are talking about a scale of need that is 100 times bigger. The effect on the healthcare system is unimaginable.
We need a vaccine. Failing that we need to isolate the infected from the uninfected and the vulnerable from everyone else. And we need to test, test and test.1 -
Thanks. Not very encouraging from my perspective.Richard_Tyndall said:
Without a vaccine there can be no other strategy. And one of the reasons they are discussing things like herd immunity is that vaccines for things like Coronaviruses are extremely difficult to develop. There was a lot of progress made on a SARS vaccine but it never got to the point of human testing so to date we have no vaccine for either SARS or MERS.Cyclefree said:
Given the state of my lungs I probably have a very high chance of dying if I catch it. So until and unless a vaccine is developed I am going to have to live the life of a recluse. That does not fill me with a lot of hope. Life without seeing my family is not really worth living TBH.eristdoof said:
True, but I'd rather have a 10% chance of dying after a 5% chance of catching it than a 10% chance of dying after a 50% chance of catching it.Cyclefree said:
A technical question: let us say a significant proportion of the population develops immunity and there is no vaccine. What happens to people who are at high risk if they do catch it? How do they benefit? There is still no cure, the risk of death is great. So do they have to stay isolated for ever?Richard_Tyndall said:
I fear it might endure as another Y2K moment. All those who lack the knowledge of all the work that went into averting disaster and who have an axe to grind for or against a particular position or party will use any lack of hundreds of thousands of deaths as 'evidence' it was all a giant waste. Sadly and annoyingly many of those doing this will be from the more extreme elements of my own libertarian persuasion.blairf said:long time lurker, tempted back. posted (and even wrote an article ten years ago). not sure why I'm posting again. Corona related I think. Current madness will either be seen as a monumental testament to modern ingenuity avoiding monumental death, or mass hysteria. Three years and we get the answer.
Edit. Oh and very welcome back.
I am not going to criticise the government as I am sure that there must be much work going on that we are not aware of, particularly from experts. I just don’t understand what the long-term strategy is - saving the NHS is all very well - but in the end isn’t the strategy the same as it’s always been - “herd immunity” but just over a long time frame. I wish I knew what the strategy is for at risk people other than just hiding them away.
That is not to say we won't get one for COVID-19 but those talking with near certainty of one being developed any time soon are perhaps being over optimistic.0 -
Venus certainly looked bright a few days ago.DAlexander said:
The sky is so clear now, I've never seen the North Star so bright before.rottenborough said:Local news talking about improved air quality as roads empty.
Electric cars can't come soon enough.1 -
And if there isn’t.....?Benpointer said:
Surely the long-term strategy has to be develop a vaccine.Cyclefree said:
Given the state of my lungs I probably have a very high chance of dying if I catch it. So until and unless a vaccine is developed I am going to have to live the life of a recluse. That does not fill me with a lot of hope. Life without seeing my family is not really worth living TBH.eristdoof said:
True, but I'd rather have a 10% chance of dying after a 5% chance of catching it than a 10% chance of dying after a 50% chance of catching it.Cyclefree said:
A technical question: let us say a significant proportion of the population develops immunity and there is no vaccine. What happens to people who are at high risk if they do catch it? How do they benefit? There is still no cure, the risk of death is great. So do they have to stay isolated for ever?Richard_Tyndall said:
I fear it might endure as another Y2K moment. All those who lack the knowledge of all the work that went into averting disaster and who have an axe to grind for or against a particular position or party will use any lack of hundreds of thousands of deaths as 'evidence' it was all a giant waste. Sadly and annoyingly many of those doing this will be from the more extreme elements of my own libertarian persuasion.blairf said:long time lurker, tempted back. posted (and even wrote an article ten years ago). not sure why I'm posting again. Corona related I think. Current madness will either be seen as a monumental testament to modern ingenuity avoiding monumental death, or mass hysteria. Three years and we get the answer.
Edit. Oh and very welcome back.
I am not going to criticise the government as I am sure that there must be much work going on that we are not aware of, particularly from experts. I just don’t understand what the long-term strategy is - saving the NHS is all very well - but in the end isn’t the strategy the same as it’s always been - “herd immunity” but just over a long time frame. I wish I knew what the strategy is for at risk people other than just hiding them away.0 -
He presented a cogent case on the World at One (Radio 4) earlier today. Worth listening to.Andy_JS said:"On Monday, former supreme court justice Lord Sumption said that excessive measures were in danger of turning Britain into a “police state”, singling out Derbyshire police – which deployed drones and dyed a lagoon black – for “trying to shame people in using their undoubted right to take exercise in the country and wrecking beauty spots in the fells”."
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/mar/30/uk-police-guidelines-coronavirus-lockdown-enforcement-powers-following-criticism-lord-sumption0 -
Only they didn't dye a lagoon black.Andy_JS said:"On Monday, former supreme court justice Lord Sumption said that excessive measures were in danger of turning Britain into a “police state”, singling out Derbyshire police – which deployed drones and dyed a lagoon black – for “trying to shame people in using their undoubted right to take exercise in the country and wrecking beauty spots in the fells”."
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/mar/30/uk-police-guidelines-coronavirus-lockdown-enforcement-powers-following-criticism-lord-sumption0 -
Was this the last outing?
https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/05/26/pb-nighthawks-is-now-open-55/
Ah, happy days - May 2015. Comments include commiserations to one Nick Palmer ex-(2)- MP.0 -
if i could ask for one thing. it won't happen but hey ho. isolate an entire town and test everyone, test them every week. and track them. in these war conditions it wouldn't be that hard. maybe norwich.
0 -
I'm intrigued by this terrifying disease which mysteriously came and then vanished:Foxy said:
As well as the possibility of vaccine, there is the development of effective treatments. Perhaps targeted antivirals, perhaps monoclonal antibodies, or simply convalescent serum. In addition the virus could just Peter out or become less virulent. Where there is life, there is hope. Hang in there @Cyclefree.Cyclefree said:
Given the state of my lungs I probably have a very high chance of dying if I catch it. So until and unless a vaccine is developed I am going to have to live the life of a recluse. That does not fill me with a lot of hope. Life without seeing my family is not really worth living TBH.eristdoof said:
True, but I'd rather have a 10% chance of dying after a 5% chance of catching it than a 10% chance of dying after a 50% chance of catching it.Cyclefree said:
A technical question: let us say a significant proportion of the population develops immunity and there is no vaccine. What happens to people who are at high risk if they do catch it? How do they benefit? There is still no cure, the risk of death is great. So do they have to stay isolated for ever?Richard_Tyndall said:
I fear it might endure as another Y2K moment. All those who lack the knowledge of all the work that went into averting disaster and who have an axe to grind for or against a particular position or party will use any lack of hundreds of thousands of deaths as 'evidence' it was all a giant waste. Sadly and annoyingly many of those doing this will be from the more extreme elements of my own libertarian persuasion.blairf said:long time lurker, tempted back. posted (and even wrote an article ten years ago). not sure why I'm posting again. Corona related I think. Current madness will either be seen as a monumental testament to modern ingenuity avoiding monumental death, or mass hysteria. Three years and we get the answer.
Edit. Oh and very welcome back.
I am not going to criticise the government as I am sure that there must be much work going on that we are not aware of, particularly from experts. I just don’t understand what the long-term strategy is - saving the NHS is all very well - but in the end isn’t the strategy the same as it’s always been - “herd immunity” but just over a long time frame. I wish I knew what the strategy is for at risk people other than just hiding them away.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sweating_sickness0 -
Liz 4% KendallBenpointer said:
I am sure L4%K means something to the initiated...bigjohnowls said:
All candidates except Corbyn pivoted to austerity light.SandyRentool said:
Burnham should have tried to inspire the membership in 2015 and he might have won.tyson said:Big_G_NorthWales said:
I thought Andy Burnham's measured approach to the Tories is the right tone...to things like HS2 and now Covid 19....
If Andy Burnham had won in 2015.......the last 5 years of British politics would have been profoundly different....for the Tories too...
Makes me even more angry with Corbyn et al....
I was going to vote Burnham until he joined YC and L4%K in dropping opposition to austerity.
The least successful leadership candidate in Labour history0 -
I've thought about this for 30 seconds and so far as I can see the more egregious gerrymandering measures have been removed so it may be more neutral than some would hope. I'd caution that any movement of seats to England from Wales or Scotland might be exploited by nationalist parties.MarqueeMark said:
Do we have a ballpark for the seats Tories would have gained/Labour would have lost in December on more updated boundaries?Big_G_NorthWales said:
We do need more detail though. Chloe Smith's written statement is here:
https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-statement/Commons/2020-03-24/HCWS183/0 -
Although oddly there was a semi-nighthawk in 2018:
https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/05/24/it-is-time-we-thought-about-another-pb-gathering/
0 -
I'm going to have to refer you to @Foxy's post. I do feel for your predicament though.Cyclefree said:
And if there isn’t.....?Benpointer said:
Surely the long-term strategy has to be develop a vaccine.Cyclefree said:
Given the state of my lungs I probably have a very high chance of dying if I catch it. So until and unless a vaccine is developed I am going to have to live the life of a recluse. That does not fill me with a lot of hope. Life without seeing my family is not really worth living TBH.eristdoof said:
True, but I'd rather have a 10% chance of dying after a 5% chance of catching it than a 10% chance of dying after a 50% chance of catching it.Cyclefree said:
A technical question: let us say a significant proportion of the population develops immunity and there is no vaccine. What happens to people who are at high risk if they do catch it? How do they benefit? There is still no cure, the risk of death is great. So do they have to stay isolated for ever?Richard_Tyndall said:
I fear it might endure as another Y2K moment. All those who lack the knowledge of all the work that went into averting disaster and who have an axe to grind for or against a particular position or party will use any lack of hundreds of thousands of deaths as 'evidence' it was all a giant waste. Sadly and annoyingly many of those doing this will be from the more extreme elements of my own libertarian persuasion.blairf said:long time lurker, tempted back. posted (and even wrote an article ten years ago). not sure why I'm posting again. Corona related I think. Current madness will either be seen as a monumental testament to modern ingenuity avoiding monumental death, or mass hysteria. Three years and we get the answer.
Edit. Oh and very welcome back.
I am not going to criticise the government as I am sure that there must be much work going on that we are not aware of, particularly from experts. I just don’t understand what the long-term strategy is - saving the NHS is all very well - but in the end isn’t the strategy the same as it’s always been - “herd immunity” but just over a long time frame. I wish I knew what the strategy is for at risk people other than just hiding them away.0 -
If there isn't a healthy human nearby the virus has nowhere to go and dies out. The key to keeping transmission to an absolute minimum of to keep the uninfected segregated from the infected. Testing allows a degree of confidence in who is in which group. Testing doesn't solve the problem of itself. You need to segregate. But it allows that segregation to be more accurate. Accurate segregation not only reduces transmission it also allows healthy people to go about their normal activities.Cyclefree said:
What does this “coping” consist of? There is no cure. “Coping” just seems to be a polite way of saying that those admitted to hospital die in beds rather than on trollies or on the floor.IanB2 said:
That’s my understanding too. By reducing the chance of their getting it, we make sure we have the capacity to cope with those that do.Richard_Tyndall said:
The theory is that the more people who have had it and have immunity, the less likely it is to spread and reach those who lack immunity. My understanding is that in cases like Italy it is the swamping of the ICU system that has led to a higher proportion of deaths. So I would suppose that overall the chances of both catching it and subsequently dying from it are much reduced if you still lack immunity.Cyclefree said:
A technical question: let us say a significant proportion of the population develops immunity and there is no vaccine. What happens to people who are at high risk if they do catch it? How do they benefit? There is still no cure, the risk of death is great. So do they have to stay isolated for ever?Richard_Tyndall said:
I fear it might endure as another Y2K moment. All those who lack the knowledge of all the work that went into averting disaster and who have an axe to grind for or against a particular position or party will use any lack of hundreds of thousands of deaths as 'evidence' it was all a giant waste. Sadly and annoyingly many of those doing this will be from the more extreme elements of my own libertarian persuasion.blairf said:long time lurker, tempted back. posted (and even wrote an article ten years ago). not sure why I'm posting again. Corona related I think. Current madness will either be seen as a monumental testament to modern ingenuity avoiding monumental death, or mass hysteria. Three years and we get the answer.
Edit. Oh and very welcome back.
But that is a very cautious layman's interpretation and could be very wide of the mark.
And what does the “testing” actually achieve? Not saying it’s wrong or unnecessary but what is it for, exactly?1 -
Ironic. What a lucky escape that defeat was.Richard_Nabavi said:Was this the last outing?
https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/05/26/pb-nighthawks-is-now-open-55/
Ah, happy days - May 2015. Comments include commiserations to one Nick Palmer ex-(2)- MP.
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