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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CO-19: It won’t be long before the global total tops the milli

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  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,545
    FF43 said:

    TGOHF666 said:
    It seems this was briefed by Downing Street. Normally you would spin something like this to deflect attention, but as far as I know the government is basking in positives at the moment.
    I'm sure the Chinese government have lied, but why raise it now in a very non specific but aggressive way?

    Combined with the UK governments own lie yesterday when it pretended it was excluded from the EU procurement programme through an admin error, the claims made by Trump that Johnson was begging for ventilators, and now Johnson's letter, I'm getting a bad feeling that the government knows that things are worse than they are letting on.

    I hope not. ..
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    IshmaelZ said:

    DougSeal said:

    Foxy said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    Didn’t take long for the lockdown to be turned into a festival of virtue signalling and shaming of others less pious in their lockdown.

    The ultimate temperance movement.

    Being thinner, with healthy liver and full to the brim with vitamins are a Darwinian survival mechanism, more immediately applicable today than many years.
    Is there any medicinal benefit to multivitamins? If you're having a restricted diet to try and get thinner then can they fill the void of any missed nutrition or does it not work that way?
    I’ve taken large doses of Vitamin B as a hangover preventative for years
    I've never really suffered from hangovers. Don't know why.

    If I drink to excess (and I often did as a student) then I get memory blackouts. I don't get hangovers though. I don't drink to excess often anymore.
    Me neither. My theory is that like native Americans I lack the enzyme which metabolises alcohol so when I get drunk I just stay drunk. This is a problem and is why I haven't had a drink since 2005.
    Oh I get drunk and sober up as normal, I just don't get hangovers (but seem prone to memory loss if I drink to excess instead). Its literally for me if I drink to excess like someone pressed stop on a recording - its simply not there after a certain point of the night - but the next day I'll be perfectly fine even if I don't remember the end of the night before.

    I don't do anything to avoid hangovers except normally (if I'm sober enough to remember) drinking a pint of water before going to sleep and putting another pint of water on my bedside table which will be fully drank by morning.

    Don't drink to excess very often at all nowadays, but that's more to do with being a parent with responsibilities than anything else.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    I don't think its possible to argue with this right now. Maybe this decision does need to be revisited.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    Bloody hell. It's clearly open season on China.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,678
    eadric said:

    At the end of all this, we will probably have learned to obey, the hard way.

    This is remarkable

    https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-to-china-the-virus-is-now-a-foreign-problem-and-theyre-creating-a-fortress-to-keep-it-so-11965056

    That doesn't seem to chime with the graphic about half way down the BBC link: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-51235105

    Look at China. Its new cases went from Black in February to light yellow by middle of March. But look later. They're rising again as the lockdown is easied. They're getting a second wave.

    Of course, this is if you believe the statistics they are putting out (I don't - so I'm not sure what use the graphic is for China).

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774

    A question which I hope is not morbid but is driven by a genuine interest.

    Are the deaths amongst the older generation in places like Italy and Spain going to have a noticeable impact on demographics in those countries? Or are the numbers of deaths - terrible as they are at a personal level - simply not enough to really change the ratios between the various ages in any way that will impact on the official figures?

    Well, Italy has a big problem of lots of oldies, and not a lot of youngsters, leading to an awful dependency ratio and all kind of problems.

    This won't change that.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846
    I am not sure if this has been posted yet.

    A good message to pass along. I would say Not Suitable For Work but since most people are supposedly working from home I will revise that to Not Suitable if You Have Kids In Earshot.

    Someone described this as Tom Lehrer for the Coronavirus Era.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uGOZ9eN_rpA
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263

    Those PBers looking for some good TV should try Babylon Berlin, starting with series 1. Sensational atmospheric TV and bound to be of interest to politicos.

    I tried to watch that on German TV but got the usual "rights reserved" message for popular series. What channel is it on here? And can you watch it in German?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286

    I am not sure if this has been posted yet.

    A good message to pass along. I would say Not Suitable For Work but since most people are supposedly working from home I will revise that to Not Suitable if You Have Kids In Earshot.

    Someone described this as Tom Lehrer for the Coronavirus Era.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uGOZ9eN_rpA

    Is that Stanley Kubrick?
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,861

    A question which I hope is not morbid but is driven by a genuine interest.

    Are the deaths amongst the older generation in places like Italy and Spain going to have a noticeable impact on demographics in those countries? Or are the numbers of deaths - terrible as they are at a personal level - simply not enough to really change the ratios between the various ages in any way that will impact on the official figures?

    So far they're not noteworthy on a grand scheme of things basis. Worth remembering that in Italy 17,000 Italians die from influenza annually - without affecting the demographics in any meaningful way, that's their baseline.

    So far 10,000 coronavirus patients have died - and there's likely to be some overlap between those and those who would have died within the 17,000.

    If we get to the hundreds of thousand some people quote then it could be meaningful demographically but that seems unlikely even in Italy.
    The key here is "annually", and "so far" meaning since early February.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited March 2020
    Italian cases by province (top 15 by absolute number of cases)

    Province (region), number of cases, population at the end of 2019

    Bergamo (Lombardia) 8349 1114590
    Milano (Lombardia) 7783 3250315
    Brescia (Lombardia) 7678 1265954
    Torino (Piemonte) 3658 2259523
    Cremona (Lombardia 3605 358955
    Piacenza (Emilia Romagna) 2390 287152
    Monza e della Brianza (Lombardia) 2086 873935
    Lodi (Lombardia) 2029 230198
    Padova (Veneto) 2009 937908
    Reggio nell'Emilia (Emilia Romagna) 1996 531891
    Modena (Emilia Romagna) 1922 705393
    Pavia (Lombardia) 1877 545888
    Roma (Lazio) 1839 545888
    Verona (Veneto) 1754 926497
    Parma (Emilia Romagna) 1752 451631
    Bologna (Emilia Romagna) 1586 1014619
    Pesaro e Urbino (Marche) 1507 358886
    Trento (Trentino Alto Adige) 1505 541098
    Mantova (Lombardia) 1484 412292
    Treviso (Veneto) 1359 887806
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    "The South African township where people just won't follow the lockdown rules

    Several hundred soldiers have been bussed into impoverished Alexandra with orders to keep the township's residents indoors.
    John Sparks - Africa correspondent"

    https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-the-south-african-township-where-people-just-wont-follow-the-lockdown-rules-11965027
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,960
    rcs1000 said:

    eadric said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Since the lockdown I've eaten less but drunk more. Anyone else with the same experience?

    I'm afraid to say I have drunk more and eaten more. But on the plus side I have exercised more - I have treated the going out once for daily exercise as a requirement rather than a limit.

    Need to curtail the eating and drinking though, having read all these reports of BMI being an indicator of Covid-19 survival!
    I’m eating loads and drinking loads, but also walking many miles by the sea, every day, and using an exercise bike, and sauna

    I’m more physically active than I was pre-lockdown
    The lockdown has done wonders for my lovelife.
    Well, the "I've got a headache" excuse is out the window without 14 days lockdown on suspicion of having CV-19!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    Andy_JS said:

    I am not sure if this has been posted yet.

    A good message to pass along. I would say Not Suitable For Work but since most people are supposedly working from home I will revise that to Not Suitable if You Have Kids In Earshot.

    Someone described this as Tom Lehrer for the Coronavirus Era.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uGOZ9eN_rpA

    Is that Stanley Kubrick?
    Richard Stilgoe?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    I'm off to the store (with a mask).

    While I'm away, does anyone know how the herd immunity strategy is working in Sweden and the Netherlands?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846
    Andy_JS said:

    I am not sure if this has been posted yet.

    A good message to pass along. I would say Not Suitable For Work but since most people are supposedly working from home I will revise that to Not Suitable if You Have Kids In Earshot.

    Someone described this as Tom Lehrer for the Coronavirus Era.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uGOZ9eN_rpA

    Is that Stanley Kubrick?
    If it is he is looking remarkably healthy :) But I get what you mean.
  • ABZABZ Posts: 441
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    TGOHF666 said:
    It seems this was briefed by Downing Street. Normally you would spin something like this to deflect attention, but as far as I know the government is basking in positives at the moment.
    I'm sure the Chinese government have lied, but why raise it now in a very non specific but aggressive way?

    Combined with the UK governments own lie yesterday when it pretended it was excluded from the EU procurement programme through an admin error, the claims made by Trump that Johnson was begging for ventilators, and now Johnson's letter, I'm getting a bad feeling that the government knows that things are worse than they are letting on.

    I hope not. ..
    I think squaring with the public is the same across all of Europe - did Trump not say the Germans were also trying to source more ventilators as well? And certainly politicians have squared with the public that this is going to be a tough period. So I don't see anything untoward here tbh.
  • steve_garnersteve_garner Posts: 1,019

    Those PBers looking for some good TV should try Babylon Berlin, starting with series 1. Sensational atmospheric TV and bound to be of interest to politicos.

    I tried to watch that on German TV but got the usual "rights reserved" message for popular series. What channel is it on here? And can you watch it in German?
    Sky Atlantic, and yes it's in German with subtitles. Fantastic portrayal of Weimar Germany with layers of complexity. I'd say it's better TV than Line of Duty.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,059
    edited March 2020
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    TGOHF666 said:
    It seems this was briefed by Downing Street. Normally you would spin something like this to deflect attention, but as far as I know the government is basking in positives at the moment.
    I'm sure the Chinese government have lied, but why raise it now in a very non specific but aggressive way?

    Combined with the UK governments own lie yesterday when it pretended it was excluded from the EU procurement programme through an admin error, the claims made by Trump that Johnson was begging for ventilators, and now Johnson's letter, I'm getting a bad feeling that the government knows that things are worse than they are letting on.

    I hope not. ..
    I think the China aspect may have something with Huawei 5G. Johnson and Trump may well have spoken about that.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited March 2020
    TGOHF666 said:
    It amazing how fake news spreads among the journalist pack...that 5700 number gets tweeted by one, then it becomes a "fact" at the press conference today when asked by a journalist and now reported in the Times as if it is a serious number that has come from a highly sophisticated model of the situation...despite nobody associated with the government response having anything at all to do with it.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited March 2020
    eristdoof said:

    A question which I hope is not morbid but is driven by a genuine interest.

    Are the deaths amongst the older generation in places like Italy and Spain going to have a noticeable impact on demographics in those countries? Or are the numbers of deaths - terrible as they are at a personal level - simply not enough to really change the ratios between the various ages in any way that will impact on the official figures?

    So far they're not noteworthy on a grand scheme of things basis. Worth remembering that in Italy 17,000 Italians die from influenza annually - without affecting the demographics in any meaningful way, that's their baseline.

    So far 10,000 coronavirus patients have died - and there's likely to be some overlap between those and those who would have died within the 17,000.

    If we get to the hundreds of thousand some people quote then it could be meaningful demographically but that seems unlikely even in Italy.
    The key here is "annually", and "so far" meaning since early February.
    We'll see what happens from here and remember than annually occurs almost all in the winter season. It seems Italy may just be hitting its peak now, if Italy suffers another two and a half times its deaths to date then while bad this will have killed just double the standard flu season deaths.

    Its not going to meaningfully change demographics until it gets much worse.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    edited March 2020
    FF43 said:

    TGOHF666 said:
    It seems this was briefed by Downing Street. Normally you would spin something like this to deflect attention, but as far as I know the government is basking in positives at the moment.
    Lashing out is normally a sign of losing control - which as you say is not a good omen.
    Andy_JS said:

    "The South African township where people just won't follow the lockdown rules

    Several hundred soldiers have been bussed into impoverished Alexandra with orders to keep the township's residents indoors.
    John Sparks - Africa correspondent"

    https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-the-south-african-township-where-people-just-wont-follow-the-lockdown-rules-11965027

    I can't see how a lockdown will work in any poor country. The possible risk of catching something that has a 1-2% possibility of killing you versus the definite likelihood of starving.
  • ABZABZ Posts: 441
    TGOHF666 said:
    Indeed! Also, the main story I don't find too surprising at all - an 8 week lockdown gradually being eased off slightly in the second part of May feels entirely reasonable and expected.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    TGOHF666 said:
    One million Britons stranded abroad? Now?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    The Luftwaffe are transporting Italian patients to be treated in German hospitals.

    https://twitter.com/landnrw/status/1243806966130114561
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625
    MattW said:

    Floater said:

    Andy_JS said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    Didn’t take long for the lockdown to be turned into a festival of virtue signalling and shaming of others less pious in their lockdown.

    The ultimate temperance movement.

    There's a feeling that, for instance, Derbyshire Police have gone over the top in doing things like dyeing a lake black to stop people from visiting it.
    Which might actually make them more likely to visit to take pictures....
    Floater said:

    Andy_JS said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    Didn’t take long for the lockdown to be turned into a festival of virtue signalling and shaming of others less pious in their lockdown.

    The ultimate temperance movement.

    There's a feeling that, for instance, Derbyshire Police have gone over the top in doing things like dyeing a lake black to stop people from visiting it.
    Which might actually make them more likely to visit to take pictures....
    Can you link (the current version of) this story, @TGOHF666 ?

    Let's bury this. Anybody with that "feeling" is a fool.

    It is not a "lake"; it is water in the bottom of a disused quarry near Buxton that - due to the minerals and the left over toxic waste - has a pH of 11.3, the same as Sodium Hydroxide.

    The Council has been dyeing it black since 2013 to save idiots that swim in it from their own stupidity. That seems to me more important than pandering to a few happy snappers. The current initiative is the police working with the Council.

    It seems to work - a good example of nudge theory.
    https://www.atlasobscura.com/places/blue-lagoon-of-buxton

    The Derbyshire Police, and especially the Notts Police, are sometimes foolish - this is not such an occasion. As someone who lived in Derbyshire for decades I have no problem with this.
    As ever, it is a good idea to get to the bottom of something before passing judgement.

    I'll get my coat....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited March 2020
    Anybody who thought 3 weeks would do the trick...I have a bridge to sell you. Especially when they have been telling oldies 12 weeks would be needed from the start.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    IanB2 said:

    TGOHF666 said:
    One million Britons stranded abroad? Now?
    I find that hard to believe unless they're including Britons who live abroad.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    TGOHF666 said:
    It seems this was briefed by Downing Street. Normally you would spin something like this to deflect attention, but as far as I know the government is basking in positives at the moment.
    I'm sure the Chinese government have lied, but why raise it now in a very non specific but aggressive way?

    Combined with the UK governments own lie yesterday when it pretended it was excluded from the EU procurement programme through an admin error, the claims made by Trump that Johnson was begging for ventilators, and now Johnson's letter, I'm getting a bad feeling that the government knows that things are worse than they are letting on.

    I hope not. ..
    I suspect they're guarding themselves against the argument that China cracked the virus by taking tough action, while the British government vacillated and now face thousands of deaths.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,678
    rcs1000 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Too big to fail?

    Let them go bankrupt, the stadiums will still exist and the demand for football will still be there. The best players will get jobs with the new clubs once normality resumes.

    That is the argument some on here are making for the rest of the economy, for the small business owner and the high street shop. So why not football as well.

    I make that argument about Virgin Atlantic.

    And I make that argument because if you can't ever go bankrupt, because the government will bail you out, then it is an optimal strategy to lever up as much as possible.

    The reason why wealth inequality has increased in the last ten years is because of wealthy people being able to engage in a massive carry trade: borrow at 3%, invest at 5%. Free money. Oodles of free money. The more you leverage yourself, the richer you become.

    If Virgin Atlantic go bust, it is shit for people who have loads of Virgin miles, like me. It's shit for Richard Branson. It's shit for the CEO, and various other people who own shares.

    But it does not affect the productive power of the economy. Someone will come along, and buy Virgin Atlantic out of the administrators or recievers.

    And even if they don't, then someone will lease some planes (they already exist) and setup a new route from LA to London. The amount of work done in the economy will be the same.

    What we will have done, though, is make it clear to the wealthy that they cannot engage, at the public's expense, in a massive carry trade that does nothing for the real economy.

    Bailing out Virgin Atlantic is corporatism. It stunk in the 1970s. And it stinks now. It doesn't save jobs, it merely encourages the uber-wealthy to borrow, borrow, borrow, borrow.
    A fair point.

    I don't think the productive power of the economy will be damaged by, say, Man U going to the wall, either.

    Surely the biggest swindle is the banks being able to borrow money at nothing or next to nothing, then loaning it out to the likes of you or me at 12% (for a business loan - 40% on an agreed overdraft!). I don't understand why the government doesn't loan or even give people the money directly.
    I'm OK with Manchester United going bust too!

    What we're all discovering right now is which football clubs did a good job of negotiating their insurance, and which did a poor one.
    I don't think there is enough insurance in the world to cover the shitstorm coming.

    I've a client who has engaged with their insurers over the current mess. Without putting too fine a point on it, their insurer has said they aren't covered. And if they are, then they won't be able to pay out anyway as everyone would be covered so they're going under and won't be paying out.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,749

    Those PBers looking for some good TV should try Babylon Berlin, starting with series 1. Sensational atmospheric TV and bound to be of interest to politicos.

    I tried to watch that on German TV but got the usual "rights reserved" message for popular series. What channel is it on here? And can you watch it in German?
    Sky Atlantic, German with subtitles.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    rcs1000 said:

    I'm off to the store (with a mask).

    While I'm away, does anyone know how the herd immunity strategy is working in Sweden and the Netherlands?

    Bit early to tell.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited March 2020
    isam said:

    twitter.com/erikstownsend/status/1243933991385923584?s=21

    Jesus another stupidly overly simplistic graphic....two are "city states". One looks like they might have had been playing a little fast and loose worrying about the Olympics, and the other tests anything that moves and tracks every bodies cell phone, transition and interaction with public transport.

    And China...they wear masks....

    It isn't masks, it is the full range of measures.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Why on earth is Downing St raising tensions? It is surely the last thing we need right now. Is this a quid pro quo for American aid?
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,092
    rcs1000 said:

    I'm off to the store (with a mask).

    While I'm away, does anyone know how the herd immunity strategy is working in Sweden and the Netherlands?

    Israel too.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,749

    Those PBers looking for some good TV should try Babylon Berlin, starting with series 1. Sensational atmospheric TV and bound to be of interest to politicos.

    Couldn't agree more.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    RobD said:
    BMI?

    Genetically engineered to be less harmful to South East Asians?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625

    I do wonder after all this is over, what new business opportunities a number of companies have found.

    Clearly Dyson think that ventilators could be a new avenue for them.

    From what I have seen, personally, in the NHS.. Medical supply is a lazy business. With contracts doled out for reasons of "industrial support", prices on a fix-my-business-level etc etc. The engineering and ergonomics of much of the stuff seemed second rate....

    It would not surprise me if one of the new entrants could do a SpaceX on cost....

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    Meanwhile the nutters with green ink plough on their lonely work...


    Telegraph:

    "The scientists working to steer Britain out of the coronavirus crisis are being targeted with death threats, the Telegraph can disclose.

    Members of the public have sent threats to experts on the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), the publicly-funded organisation which advises the government at times of crisis.

    A SAGE source said: “There are already all number of death threats being sent to people involved. In the last few weeks, some of the people who have been involved have received abuse in the street.”

    Many of the threats are from people furious that the group endorsed a “herd immunity” strategy before the lockdown was imposed."
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    Useless fact: I haven't watched any TV series that have been produced since the X Files in the 1990s, so maybe this is my big chance to catch up on what everyone says has been a golden age for TV dramas.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited March 2020

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    TGOHF666 said:
    It seems this was briefed by Downing Street. Normally you would spin something like this to deflect attention, but as far as I know the government is basking in positives at the moment.
    I'm sure the Chinese government have lied, but why raise it now in a very non specific but aggressive way?

    Combined with the UK governments own lie yesterday when it pretended it was excluded from the EU procurement programme through an admin error, the claims made by Trump that Johnson was begging for ventilators, and now Johnson's letter, I'm getting a bad feeling that the government knows that things are worse than they are letting on.

    I hope not. ..
    I suspect they're guarding themselves against the argument that China cracked the virus by taking tough action, while the British government vacillated and now face thousands of deaths.
    Well there is the small issue of because China lied about the numbers, the original models that the UK used them to measure their response were horseshit....it was only when the data from Italy started to be added in that it was clear this was a totally different level of shitstorm.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Anyone know where I could find a table to COVID cases per capita for countries and deaths per capita?

    Also are Germany testing their deceased who may have died from other causes for the virus? I've heard some say they are not which could explain difference of their data to ours, while others say they are?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    eadric said:

    He’s got his numbers wrong. This virus will kill millions and cost trillions. Literally.

    Beijing is fucked. The West will turn away.
    The virus will not kill millions. Except maybe in third world countries like Iran.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited March 2020
    eadric said:

    He’s got his numbers wrong. This virus will kill millions and cost trillions. Literally.

    Beijing is fucked. The West will turn away.
    Not sure I would go that far. But I can certainly see Western nations putting the thumbs on the scales to ensure more "essential" industries aren't allowed to become Chinese monopolies e.g. loads of base chemicals production essential for so many things is now a near monopoly Chinese operation.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Anyone know where I could find a table to COVID cases per capita for countries and deaths per capita?

    Also are Germany testing their deceased who may have died from other causes for the virus? I've heard some say they are not which could explain difference of their data to ours, while others say they are?

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625

    rcs1000 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Too big to fail?

    Let them go bankrupt, the stadiums will still exist and the demand for football will still be there. The best players will get jobs with the new clubs once normality resumes.

    That is the argument some on here are making for the rest of the economy, for the small business owner and the high street shop. So why not football as well.

    I make that argument about Virgin Atlantic.

    And I make that argument because if you can't ever go bankrupt, because the government will bail you out, then it is an optimal strategy to lever up as much as possible.

    The reason why wealth inequality has increased in the last ten years is because of wealthy people being able to engage in a massive carry trade: borrow at 3%, invest at 5%. Free money. Oodles of free money. The more you leverage yourself, the richer you become.

    If Virgin Atlantic go bust, it is shit for people who have loads of Virgin miles, like me. It's shit for Richard Branson. It's shit for the CEO, and various other people who own shares.

    But it does not affect the productive power of the economy. Someone will come along, and buy Virgin Atlantic out of the administrators or recievers.

    And even if they don't, then someone will lease some planes (they already exist) and setup a new route from LA to London. The amount of work done in the economy will be the same.

    What we will have done, though, is make it clear to the wealthy that they cannot engage, at the public's expense, in a massive carry trade that does nothing for the real economy.

    Bailing out Virgin Atlantic is corporatism. It stunk in the 1970s. And it stinks now. It doesn't save jobs, it merely encourages the uber-wealthy to borrow, borrow, borrow, borrow.
    A fair point.

    I don't think the productive power of the economy will be damaged by, say, Man U going to the wall, either.

    Surely the biggest swindle is the banks being able to borrow money at nothing or next to nothing, then loaning it out to the likes of you or me at 12% (for a business loan - 40% on an agreed overdraft!). I don't understand why the government doesn't loan or even give people the money directly.
    I'm OK with Manchester United going bust too!

    What we're all discovering right now is which football clubs did a good job of negotiating their insurance, and which did a poor one.
    I don't think there is enough insurance in the world to cover the shitstorm coming.

    I've a client who has engaged with their insurers over the current mess. Without putting too fine a point on it, their insurer has said they aren't covered. And if they are, then they won't be able to pay out anyway as everyone would be covered so they're going under and won't be paying out.
    For those worried about their teams - given the nature of the people running most of the clubs, it will be a creative bankruptcy.

    When I was young, the nightclub in the Westgate Shopping centre in Oxford used to go bankrupt every year. It was always open - new name outside. Same staff.

    If Man. U. goes down, Man. U. will be playing again the next week. Not the old Man. U. oh no no no no. A completely different Man. U. than the one that owes all the money etc...
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,678

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    TGOHF666 said:
    It seems this was briefed by Downing Street. Normally you would spin something like this to deflect attention, but as far as I know the government is basking in positives at the moment.
    I'm sure the Chinese government have lied, but why raise it now in a very non specific but aggressive way?

    Combined with the UK governments own lie yesterday when it pretended it was excluded from the EU procurement programme through an admin error, the claims made by Trump that Johnson was begging for ventilators, and now Johnson's letter, I'm getting a bad feeling that the government knows that things are worse than they are letting on.

    I hope not. ..
    I suspect they're guarding themselves against the argument that China cracked the virus by taking tough action, while the British government vacillated and now face thousands of deaths.
    Isn't some of China's 'tough' action literally welding apartment blocks closed, to reopen in fourteen days? Those left alive- well great. Those not clearly died from starvation and not Covid-19.

    Not sure I want to be part of China's 'tough' actions.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    rcs1000 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Too big to fail?

    Let them go bankrupt, the stadiums will still exist and the demand for football will still be there. The best players will get jobs with the new clubs once normality resumes.

    That is the argument some on here are making for the rest of the economy, for the small business owner and the high street shop. So why not football as well.

    I make that argument about Virgin Atlantic.

    And I make that argument because if you can't ever go bankrupt, because the government will bail you out, then it is an optimal strategy to lever up as much as possible.

    The reason why wealth inequality has increased in the last ten years is because of wealthy people being able to engage in a massive carry trade: borrow at 3%, invest at 5%. Free money. Oodles of free money. The more you leverage yourself, the richer you become.

    If Virgin Atlantic go bust, it is shit for people who have loads of Virgin miles, like me. It's shit for Richard Branson. It's shit for the CEO, and various other people who own shares.

    But it does not affect the productive power of the economy. Someone will come along, and buy Virgin Atlantic out of the administrators or recievers.

    And even if they don't, then someone will lease some planes (they already exist) and setup a new route from LA to London. The amount of work done in the economy will be the same.

    What we will have done, though, is make it clear to the wealthy that they cannot engage, at the public's expense, in a massive carry trade that does nothing for the real economy.

    Bailing out Virgin Atlantic is corporatism. It stunk in the 1970s. And it stinks now. It doesn't save jobs, it merely encourages the uber-wealthy to borrow, borrow, borrow, borrow.
    A fair point.

    I don't think the productive power of the economy will be damaged by, say, Man U going to the wall, either.

    Surely the biggest swindle is the banks being able to borrow money at nothing or next to nothing, then loaning it out to the likes of you or me at 12% (for a business loan - 40% on an agreed overdraft!). I don't understand why the government doesn't loan or even give people the money directly.
    I'm OK with Manchester United going bust too!

    What we're all discovering right now is which football clubs did a good job of negotiating their insurance, and which did a poor one.
    I don't think there is enough insurance in the world to cover the shitstorm coming.

    I've a client who has engaged with their insurers over the current mess. Without putting too fine a point on it, their insurer has said they aren't covered. And if they are, then they won't be able to pay out anyway as everyone would be covered so they're going under and won't be paying out.
    This is why the government needs to be an insurer of last resort.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625
    Jonathan said:

    Why on earth is Downing St raising tensions? It is surely the last thing we need right now. Is this a quid pro quo for American aid?

    Marking the ground for later.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    Andy_JS said:

    Useless fact: I haven't watched any TV series that have been produced since the X Files in the 1990s, so maybe this is my big chance to catch up on what everyone says has been a golden age for TV dramas.

    The Wire.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    Andy_JS said:

    Useless fact: I haven't watched any TV series that have been produced since the X Files in the 1990s, so maybe this is my big chance to catch up on what everyone says has been a golden age for TV dramas.

    Christ alive...you missed so much...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    Jonathan said:

    Why on earth is Downing St raising tensions? It is surely the last thing we need right now. Is this a quid pro quo for American aid?

    Dom was bored?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    CYCLEFREE GARDENING CORNER

    FPT for @MattW So you should have a support at each end of a row of canes and maybe one in the middle depending on how long the row is.

    The wire should be tied to the supports horizontally - at 3 levels near the bottom, middle and top. The raspberry plants you then train laterally along these wires.

    Some time in late spring you should thin out your raspberry canes (in the case of summer fruiting ones) so that you have about 6, no more than 8 per plant and these as they grow will be tied to the wires.

    For autumn fruiting raspberries cut the canes down to the ground in February and as they grow do the same.

    Essentially you are creating a sort of supporting grid for the canes allowing the plants to grow from the new wood and horizontally - because the flowers and fruit will come from the horizontal stems - and making sure that the plants are not too congested, particularly at the base, so as to allow light and air in.

    Hope this helps!

    For @MattW

    And looking at your photo you have some pretty good supports there already so concentrate on the lateral wires.
    A suggestion - to keep the tension in the wires (if required)....

    run the wire past the last cane, down to a peg in the ground - driven deep at an angle. The same at the cane at the other end of the row. That way you can pull them tight without the canes falling together.

    Its how's they support the vines in France and elsewhere.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274

    Andy_JS said:

    Useless fact: I haven't watched any TV series that have been produced since the X Files in the 1990s, so maybe this is my big chance to catch up on what everyone says has been a golden age for TV dramas.

    The Wire.
    ‘McNulty...There you go, giving a f— when it ain’t your turn to give a f—.’ –
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136

    eadric said:

    He’s got his numbers wrong. This virus will kill millions and cost trillions. Literally.

    Beijing is fucked. The West will turn away.
    The virus will not kill millions. Except maybe in third world countries like Iran.
    wtf
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    TGOHF666 said:
    It seems this was briefed by Downing Street. Normally you would spin something like this to deflect attention, but as far as I know the government is basking in positives at the moment.
    I'm sure the Chinese government have lied, but why raise it now in a very non specific but aggressive way?

    Combined with the UK governments own lie yesterday when it pretended it was excluded from the EU procurement programme through an admin error, the claims made by Trump that Johnson was begging for ventilators, and now Johnson's letter, I'm getting a bad feeling that the government knows that things are worse than they are letting on.

    I hope not. ..
    I suspect they're guarding themselves against the argument that China cracked the virus by taking tough action, while the British government vacillated and now face thousands of deaths.
    Well there is the small issue of because China lied about the numbers, the original models that the UK used them to measure their response were horseshit....it was only when the data from Italy started to be added in that it was clear this was a totally different level of shitstorm.
    I don't buy that excuse.

    The original report of the first 41 cases cited 31% needing ICU on 24th Jan, published in the Lancet. Anyone who didn't realise that a pandemic means a lot of ventilators wasn't paying attention.

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625
    kamski said:

    The Range is open? Had no idea... If they're allowed to be open, they sell paint and lamps. If paint and lamps shouldn't be bought perhaps the government should instruct them to close.
    I imagine it could make sense to have DIY stores open as it gives people something to do while at home. Get some paint etc and start a DIY project that could keep you busy and occupied (and not going to the beach etc) for the coming weeks.

    Since I'm stuck at home I've started some DIY projects but got my bits and pieces from Amazon.
    Went to B&Q last weekend. Have various projects underway or materials bought for. You take my point though. People shopping. At a store allowed to be open by the government. Is not some opportunity to shame people doing what they are allowed to do.
    My wife went around the corner a week ago to pick up a prescription. Today several neighbours are saying "we saw you on the local news!". Apparently there was an item about people ignoring the lock down which used week-old footage of people walking down the street. Some of the coverage is pretty silly, surely they can find some real examples of people actually behaving irresponsibly?
    Bit like the picture from the other day - which showed 10 or so cars, parked, widely spaced. And claimed to be evidence of mass queuing to get into a national park.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited March 2020
    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    TGOHF666 said:
    It seems this was briefed by Downing Street. Normally you would spin something like this to deflect attention, but as far as I know the government is basking in positives at the moment.
    I'm sure the Chinese government have lied, but why raise it now in a very non specific but aggressive way?

    Combined with the UK governments own lie yesterday when it pretended it was excluded from the EU procurement programme through an admin error, the claims made by Trump that Johnson was begging for ventilators, and now Johnson's letter, I'm getting a bad feeling that the government knows that things are worse than they are letting on.

    I hope not. ..
    I suspect they're guarding themselves against the argument that China cracked the virus by taking tough action, while the British government vacillated and now face thousands of deaths.
    Well there is the small issue of because China lied about the numbers, the original models that the UK used them to measure their response were horseshit....it was only when the data from Italy started to be added in that it was clear this was a totally different level of shitstorm.
    I don't buy that excuse.

    The original report of the first 41 cases cited 31% needing ICU on 24th Jan, published in the Lancet. Anyone who didn't realise that a pandemic means a lot of ventilators wasn't paying attention.

    That's what the minutes from those minutes say. Not China lying about the scale, but what the models said when the data was inputted.

    The issue was not that 31% needed ICU, but because the scale was officially small, the chances of it becoming a global pandemic were estimated to be very very small.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    He’s got his numbers wrong. This virus will kill millions and cost trillions. Literally.

    Beijing is fucked. The West will turn away.
    Not sure I would go that far. But I can certainly see Western nations putting the thumbs on the scales to ensure more "essential" industries aren't allowed to become Chinese monopolies e.g. loads of base chemicals production essential for so many things is now a near monopoly Chinese operation.
    I would go that far

    I reckon - I’ve had wine - coronavirus is going to kick off a new Cold War. There will be two competing worlds, western capitalism (more individualistic, but sobered by corona) centred around a somewhat humbled America, and Asian state-directed capitalism, centred around a disliked China, with very uncomfortable satellite states in Japan, Korea, Taiwan. Etc.

    The West is sufficient unto itself. It can feed itself and make what it needs.

    The breakdown between the two worlds will be very painful, but there won’t be all out war.

    Basically every hunch I’ve had about corona has come true, so far, so I’m backing this one, too, despite my ingestion of a bottle and a half of Rioja Gran Reserva Cune 2010
    I think we're heading for a new Cold War too, but I think the CCP will be more isolated than that. Russia will be in a very uncomfortable position and may end up turning towards the West sooner rather than later.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    He’s got his numbers wrong. This virus will kill millions and cost trillions. Literally.

    Beijing is fucked. The West will turn away.
    Not sure I would go that far. But I can certainly see Western nations putting the thumbs on the scales to ensure more "essential" industries aren't allowed to become Chinese monopolies e.g. loads of base chemicals production essential for so many things is now a near monopoly Chinese operation.
    I would go that far

    I reckon - I’ve had wine - coronavirus is going to kick off a new Cold War. There will be two competing worlds, western capitalism (more individualistic, but sobered by corona) centred around a somewhat humbled America, and Asian state-directed capitalism, centred around a disliked China, with very uncomfortable satellite states in Japan, Korea, Taiwan. Etc.

    The West is sufficient unto itself. It can feed itself and make what it needs.

    The breakdown between the two worlds will be very painful, but there won’t be all out war.

    Basically every hunch I’ve had about corona has come true, so far, so I’m backing this one, too, despite my ingestion of a bottle and a half of Rioja Gran Reserva Cune 2010
    I can't see the West becoming totally unhooked from cheap Chinese imports...and the cost different would be so large, it would send so many people's living standards thrown the floor.

    But I don't think western government will want to repeat the experience of shit kicking off and finding lots of essential things at their core require some Chinese operation to the start of the supply / build process.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069

    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    TGOHF666 said:
    It seems this was briefed by Downing Street. Normally you would spin something like this to deflect attention, but as far as I know the government is basking in positives at the moment.
    I'm sure the Chinese government have lied, but why raise it now in a very non specific but aggressive way?

    Combined with the UK governments own lie yesterday when it pretended it was excluded from the EU procurement programme through an admin error, the claims made by Trump that Johnson was begging for ventilators, and now Johnson's letter, I'm getting a bad feeling that the government knows that things are worse than they are letting on.

    I hope not. ..
    I suspect they're guarding themselves against the argument that China cracked the virus by taking tough action, while the British government vacillated and now face thousands of deaths.
    Well there is the small issue of because China lied about the numbers, the original models that the UK used them to measure their response were horseshit....it was only when the data from Italy started to be added in that it was clear this was a totally different level of shitstorm.
    I don't buy that excuse.

    The original report of the first 41 cases cited 31% needing ICU on 24th Jan, published in the Lancet. Anyone who didn't realise that a pandemic means a lot of ventilators wasn't paying attention.

    That's what the minutes from those minutes say. Not China lying about the scale, but what the models said when the data was inputted.

    The issue was not that 31% needed ICU, but because the scale was officially small, the chances of it becoming a global pandemic were estimated to be very very small.
    Well, they got that completely wrong.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    He’s got his numbers wrong. This virus will kill millions and cost trillions. Literally.

    Beijing is fucked. The West will turn away.
    Not sure I would go that far. But I can certainly see Western nations putting the thumbs on the scales to ensure more "essential" industries aren't allowed to become Chinese monopolies e.g. loads of base chemicals production essential for so many things is now a near monopoly Chinese operation.
    I would go that far

    I reckon - I’ve had wine - coronavirus is going to kick off a new Cold War. There will be two competing worlds, western capitalism (more individualistic, but sobered by corona) centred around a somewhat humbled America, and Asian state-directed capitalism, centred around a disliked China, with very uncomfortable satellite states in Japan, Korea, Taiwan. Etc.

    The West is sufficient unto itself. It can feed itself and make what it needs.

    The breakdown between the two worlds will be very painful, but there won’t be all out war.

    Basically every hunch I’ve had about corona has come true, so far, so I’m backing this one, too, despite my ingestion of a bottle and a half of Rioja Gran Reserva Cune 2010
    India will also start to challenge China too for hegemony in Asia
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    eadric said:

    He’s got his numbers wrong. This virus will kill millions and cost trillions. Literally.

    Beijing is fucked. The West will turn away.
    The virus will not kill millions. Except maybe in third world countries like Iran.
    wtf
    Total deaths to date are 29k with thoughts we may be entering the peak in Europe. I don't see it getting to millions.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    OllyT said:

    Re the announcement that the PL want to finish the season behind closed doors.

    With things like the Olympics cancelled for a year what the f**k is the obsession with trying to finish the PL season? It comes across as highly insensitive given all the dire problems people are now facing on a daily basis. Greed pure and simple.

    I'm sure that's part of it, but I also don't think a comparison between an Olympic Games and finishing 9-10 matches behind closed doors over, say, 6-7 weeks, across a period when restrictions are likely to be somewhat more relaxed than now, is completely ideal, even though attempting to finish the season should of course not be a priority.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    I'm genuinely surprised at how fast the virus has spread around the world. I mean, how the hell did it get to the Falklands Islands?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625

    eadric said:

    He’s got his numbers wrong. This virus will kill millions and cost trillions. Literally.

    Beijing is fucked. The West will turn away.
    The virus will not kill millions. Except maybe in third world countries like Iran.
    wtf
    Total deaths to date are 29k with thoughts we may be entering the peak in Europe. I don't see it getting to millions.
    Africa?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    He’s got his numbers wrong. This virus will kill millions and cost trillions. Literally.

    Beijing is fucked. The West will turn away.
    The virus will not kill millions. Except maybe in third world countries like Iran.
    There are 7 billion people in the world. Before this virus has burned out it will definitely kill millions. As does normal flu.
    Depends if you're still counting deaths years from now, or if you mean during this pandemic.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625
    Andy_JS said:

    I'm genuinely surprised at how fast the virus has spread around the world. I mean, how the hell did it get to the Falklands Islands?

    Incredibly infectious with a long incubation phase. Perfect for air travel.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    eadric said:

    He’s got his numbers wrong. This virus will kill millions and cost trillions. Literally.

    Beijing is fucked. The West will turn away.
    The virus will not kill millions. Except maybe in third world countries like Iran.
    wtf
    Total deaths to date are 29k with thoughts we may be entering the peak in Europe. I don't see it getting to millions.
    Africa?
    I think Africa counts as "third world" as per my caveat.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited March 2020
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    TGOHF666 said:
    It seems this was briefed by Downing Street. Normally you would spin something like this to deflect attention, but as far as I know the government is basking in positives at the moment.
    I'm sure the Chinese government have lied, but why raise it now in a very non specific but aggressive way?

    Combined with the UK governments own lie yesterday when it pretended it was excluded from the EU procurement programme through an admin error, the claims made by Trump that Johnson was begging for ventilators, and now Johnson's letter, I'm getting a bad feeling that the government knows that things are worse than they are letting on.

    I hope not. ..
    I suspect they're guarding themselves against the argument that China cracked the virus by taking tough action, while the British government vacillated and now face thousands of deaths.
    Well there is the small issue of because China lied about the numbers, the original models that the UK used them to measure their response were horseshit....it was only when the data from Italy started to be added in that it was clear this was a totally different level of shitstorm.
    I don't buy that excuse.

    The original report of the first 41 cases cited 31% needing ICU on 24th Jan, published in the Lancet. Anyone who didn't realise that a pandemic means a lot of ventilators wasn't paying attention.

    That's what the minutes from those minutes say. Not China lying about the scale, but what the models said when the data was inputted.

    The issue was not that 31% needed ICU, but because the scale was officially small, the chances of it becoming a global pandemic were estimated to be very very small.
    Well, they got that completely wrong.
    Obviously....but garbage in, garbage out. We now know that this started probably in November in China. They covered it up, they lied, and I think it is fairly clear they lied about the extent of it at every stage.

    It isn't as if the UK government did nothing. They started planning at the beginning of January and no other Western government have really done anything much different in terms of preparation.

    Germany certainly got their testing procedure up and running faster and more widely, and started from a better position in terms of ICU beds, but France, Italy, Spain, etc don't seem to have anywhere near the planning the UK have done.

    I think that indicates that the UK weren't alone in having their experts look at things and come to a similar conclusion. And it is clear with all the likes of hidden away PPE supplies, the Excel, NEC, G-Mex centres and alike, these were planned out.

    We also did contact tracing really well in the early days.

    The big thing the UK government has failed on is going from contact testing / tracing to mass testing. Part of that is global shortage of required chemicals (often from China), and the decision not to go with a two tier testing approach of less accurate test + a gold standard one.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    rcs1000 said:

    eadric said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Since the lockdown I've eaten less but drunk more. Anyone else with the same experience?

    I'm afraid to say I have drunk more and eaten more. But on the plus side I have exercised more - I have treated the going out once for daily exercise as a requirement rather than a limit.

    Need to curtail the eating and drinking though, having read all these reports of BMI being an indicator of Covid-19 survival!
    I’m eating loads and drinking loads, but also walking many miles by the sea, every day, and using an exercise bike, and sauna

    I’m more physically active than I was pre-lockdown
    The lockdown has done wonders for my lovelife.
    There's is so little else to do. We actually don't get dressed most days now that we know no one is going come over unexpectedly. It's quite a freeing experience, and it feels like we're back in our mid twenties when we met.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    He’s got his numbers wrong. This virus will kill millions and cost trillions. Literally.

    Beijing is fucked. The West will turn away.
    Not sure I would go that far. But I can certainly see Western nations putting the thumbs on the scales to ensure more "essential" industries aren't allowed to become Chinese monopolies e.g. loads of base chemicals production essential for so many things is now a near monopoly Chinese operation.
    I would go that far

    I reckon - I’ve had wine - coronavirus is going to kick off a new Cold War. There will be two competing worlds, western capitalism (more individualistic, but sobered by corona) centred around a somewhat humbled America, and Asian state-directed capitalism, centred around a disliked China, with very uncomfortable satellite states in Japan, Korea, Taiwan. Etc.

    The West is sufficient unto itself. It can feed itself and make what it needs.

    The breakdown between the two worlds will be very painful, but there won’t be all out war.

    Basically every hunch I’ve had about corona has come true, so far, so I’m backing this one, too, despite my ingestion of a bottle and a half of Rioja Gran Reserva Cune 2010
    I think we're heading for a new Cold War too, but I think the CCP will be more isolated than that. Russia will be in a very uncomfortable position and may end up turning towards the West sooner rather than later.
    Russian patriotism is too hardwired into hating the West. Then *need* the West as the enemy.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460

    Andy_JS said:

    Useless fact: I haven't watched any TV series that have been produced since the X Files in the 1990s, so maybe this is my big chance to catch up on what everyone says has been a golden age for TV dramas.

    The Wire.
    +1. The Wire
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    He’s got his numbers wrong. This virus will kill millions and cost trillions. Literally.

    Beijing is fucked. The West will turn away.
    Not sure I would go that far. But I can certainly see Western nations putting the thumbs on the scales to ensure more "essential" industries aren't allowed to become Chinese monopolies e.g. loads of base chemicals production essential for so many things is now a near monopoly Chinese operation.
    I would go that far

    I reckon - I’ve had wine - coronavirus is going to kick off a new Cold War. There will be two competing worlds, western capitalism (more individualistic, but sobered by corona) centred around a somewhat humbled America, and Asian state-directed capitalism, centred around a disliked China, with very uncomfortable satellite states in Japan, Korea, Taiwan. Etc.

    The West is sufficient unto itself. It can feed itself and make what it needs.

    The breakdown between the two worlds will be very painful, but there won’t be all out war.

    Basically every hunch I’ve had about corona has come true, so far, so I’m backing this one, too, despite my ingestion of a bottle and a half of Rioja Gran Reserva Cune 2010
    I can't see the West becoming totally unhooked from cheap Chinese imports...and the cost different would be so large, it would send so many people's living standards thrown the floor.

    But I don't think western government will want to repeat the experience of shit kicking off and finding lots of essential things at their core require some Chinese operation to the start of the supply / build process.
    It's almost as if we should concentrate on trade and political links with our neighbours...

    Goodnight all!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    kle4 said:

    OllyT said:

    Re the announcement that the PL want to finish the season behind closed doors.

    With things like the Olympics cancelled for a year what the f**k is the obsession with trying to finish the PL season? It comes across as highly insensitive given all the dire problems people are now facing on a daily basis. Greed pure and simple.

    I'm sure that's part of it, but I also don't think a comparison between an Olympic Games and finishing 9-10 matches behind closed doors over, say, 6-7 weeks, across a period when restrictions are likely to be somewhat more relaxed than now, is completely ideal, even though attempting to finish the season should of course not be a priority.
    Indeed comparisons between international competitions like the Olympics and domestic ones like the league are completely fatuous.

    Quite reasonable to perhaps abandon the Champions League and the UEFA Cup and UEFA 2020 while seeking to finish the national leagues if possible.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    ABZ said:

    TGOHF666 said:
    Indeed! Also, the main story I don't find too surprising at all - an 8 week lockdown gradually being eased off slightly in the second part of May feels entirely reasonable and expected.
    Even without a scientific imperative behind it it feels like that would be what political pressure would align to - if the peak really is mid April or late April the numbers will still presumably be pretty high through the early weeks of May, so easing off a little (though probably not eliminating all restrictions) for June seems as far as they would go even if the lower estimates on things are looking correct. The advisers and Boris won't want to be accused of dropping measures too soon, and the economic costs have already been assumed for.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625

    rcs1000 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Too big to fail?

    Let them go bankrupt, the stadiums will still exist and the demand for football will still be there. The best players will get jobs with the new clubs once normality resumes.

    That is the argument some on here are making for the rest of the economy, for the small business owner and the high street shop. So why not football as well.

    I make that argument about Virgin Atlantic.

    And I make that argument because if you can't ever go bankrupt, because the government will bail you out, then it is an optimal strategy to lever up as much as possible.

    The reason why wealth inequality has increased in the last ten years is because of wealthy people being able to engage in a massive carry trade: borrow at 3%, invest at 5%. Free money. Oodles of free money. The more you leverage yourself, the richer you become.

    If Virgin Atlantic go bust, it is shit for people who have loads of Virgin miles, like me. It's shit for Richard Branson. It's shit for the CEO, and various other people who own shares.

    But it does not affect the productive power of the economy. Someone will come along, and buy Virgin Atlantic out of the administrators or recievers.

    And even if they don't, then someone will lease some planes (they already exist) and setup a new route from LA to London. The amount of work done in the economy will be the same.

    What we will have done, though, is make it clear to the wealthy that they cannot engage, at the public's expense, in a massive carry trade that does nothing for the real economy.

    Bailing out Virgin Atlantic is corporatism. It stunk in the 1970s. And it stinks now. It doesn't save jobs, it merely encourages the uber-wealthy to borrow, borrow, borrow, borrow.
    A fair point.

    I don't think the productive power of the economy will be damaged by, say, Man U going to the wall, either.

    Surely the biggest swindle is the banks being able to borrow money at nothing or next to nothing, then loaning it out to the likes of you or me at 12% (for a business loan - 40% on an agreed overdraft!). I don't understand why the government doesn't loan or even give people the money directly.
    I'm OK with Manchester United going bust too!

    What we're all discovering right now is which football clubs did a good job of negotiating their insurance, and which did a poor one.
    I don't think there is enough insurance in the world to cover the shitstorm coming.

    I've a client who has engaged with their insurers over the current mess. Without putting too fine a point on it, their insurer has said they aren't covered. And if they are, then they won't be able to pay out anyway as everyone would be covered so they're going under and won't be paying out.
    This is why the government needs to be an insurer of last resort.
    Exactly - this was my first thought when people wanted the government to take action in a way that triggered their insurance.

    All that would achieve would be a requirement to bail out the insurance industry. Which would be, if nothing else, a lot less in tune with the public mood than the government saving the day directly.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    HYUFD said:
    That picture is pretty crazy even if only for the fact there there's plenty of room for those there to spread out more even if they insisted on going out there in the first place.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:
    That picture is pretty crazy even if only for the fact there there's plenty of room for those there to spread out more even if they insisted on going out there in the first place.
    People being pushed across the line by the police on the quad bikes in the foreground?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    welshowl said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Useless fact: I haven't watched any TV series that have been produced since the X Files in the 1990s, so maybe this is my big chance to catch up on what everyone says has been a golden age for TV dramas.

    The Wire.
    +1. The Wire
    I really should watch it again. I remember being really into it, yet I've not seen it now in over a decade so it may not be as good as I recall it being.

    And yet I found time to watch the utterly ridiculous The Lost World series on Amazon Prime just weeks ago. Funny old world.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    rcs1000 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Too big to fail?

    Let them go bankrupt, the stadiums will still exist and the demand for football will still be there. The best players will get jobs with the new clubs once normality resumes.

    That is the argument some on here are making for the rest of the economy, for the small business owner and the high street shop. So why not football as well.

    I make that argument about Virgin Atlantic.

    And I make that argument because if you can't ever go bankrupt, because the government will bail you out, then it is an optimal strategy to lever up as much as possible.

    The reason why wealth inequality has increased in the last ten years is because of wealthy people being able to engage in a massive carry trade: borrow at 3%, invest at 5%. Free money. Oodles of free money. The more you leverage yourself, the richer you become.

    If Virgin Atlantic go bust, it is shit for people who have loads of Virgin miles, like me. It's shit for Richard Branson. It's shit for the CEO, and various other people who own shares.

    But it does not affect the productive power of the economy. Someone will come along, and buy Virgin Atlantic out of the administrators or recievers.

    And even if they don't, then someone will lease some planes (they already exist) and setup a new route from LA to London. The amount of work done in the economy will be the same.

    What we will have done, though, is make it clear to the wealthy that they cannot engage, at the public's expense, in a massive carry trade that does nothing for the real economy.

    Bailing out Virgin Atlantic is corporatism. It stunk in the 1970s. And it stinks now. It doesn't save jobs, it merely encourages the uber-wealthy to borrow, borrow, borrow, borrow.
    A fair point.

    I don't think the productive power of the economy will be damaged by, say, Man U going to the wall, either.

    Surely the biggest swindle is the banks being able to borrow money at nothing or next to nothing, then loaning it out to the likes of you or me at 12% (for a business loan - 40% on an agreed overdraft!). I don't understand why the government doesn't loan or even give people the money directly.
    I'm OK with Manchester United going bust too!

    What we're all discovering right now is which football clubs did a good job of negotiating their insurance, and which did a poor one.
    I don't think there is enough insurance in the world to cover the shitstorm coming.

    I've a client who has engaged with their insurers over the current mess. Without putting too fine a point on it, their insurer has said they aren't covered. And if they are, then they won't be able to pay out anyway as everyone would be covered so they're going under and won't be paying out.
    This is why the government needs to be an insurer of last resort.
    Exactly - this was my first thought when people wanted the government to take action in a way that triggered their insurance.

    All that would achieve would be a requirement to bail out the insurance industry. Which would be, if nothing else, a lot less in tune with the public mood than the government saving the day directly.
    Indeed it would be like 2007/8 redux with people complaining the Insurance industry had been "too big to fail".

    If we go to war we don't quibble about companies needing their own soldiers, we fight as a country. This is a war effort we need now and so the usual order of things is suspended until that ends.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    kle4 said:

    welshowl said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Useless fact: I haven't watched any TV series that have been produced since the X Files in the 1990s, so maybe this is my big chance to catch up on what everyone says has been a golden age for TV dramas.

    The Wire.
    +1. The Wire
    I really should watch it again. I remember being really into it, yet I've not seen it now in over a decade so it may not be as good as I recall it being.

    And yet I found time to watch the utterly ridiculous The Lost World series on Amazon Prime just weeks ago. Funny old world.
    I re-watched it 2 years ago...it was equally good even after all these years.

    I would say it is the perfect tv show, the 5 series are just the correct amount to give you the full picture of what a drugs empire looks across all aspects of every day life, without feeling like dragging it out for unnecessary episodes and seasons.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    eadric said:

    Beijing is fucked. The West will turn away.
    How? Is this really going to be the last straw?

    In global relations I tend to ask myself - what is the easiest route for nation's to take, even if it means longer term pain?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263



    Isn't some of China's 'tough' action literally welding apartment blocks closed, to reopen in fourteen days? Those left alive- well great. Those not clearly died from starvation and not Covid-19.

    Not sure I want to be part of China's 'tough' actions.

    That was discussed on the last thread - apparently the source is Falun Gong, who have an understandable grudge, and it's not been reported by the normally highly critical social media sources. Obviously we don't know either way, but probably not.

    Don't get me wrong - I don't want to live under a corrupt autocratic government either. But after the initial blunders and cover-up they do seem to have got on top of it, and we'll see whether we can say that of most places in Europe. South Korea is probably the more promising model for epidemic control, neither a dictatorship nor a vacillator, if that's a word.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625
    RobD said:
    Of course not - reality isn't true.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited March 2020
    30,000 - 40,000 seems perfectly believable. They had this thing run wild and unrestricted for probably 3 months, in a densely populated city of 11 million, while at the peak had 10 of millions of people across China travelling all over the country for New Year.

    They had to build 16 extra "hospitals" for just Wuhan. We have had 1000 deaths having got nowhere near the peak yet (and all the social distancing) and without the NHS blowing up.

    The pictures out of Wuhan were 1000s of people jammed into A&E departments. A total meltdown of their system. And we have seen as soon as that happens you get 1000s dying daily.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    kle4 said:

    eadric said:

    Beijing is fucked. The West will turn away.
    How? Is this really going to be the last straw?

    In global relations I tend to ask myself - what is the easiest route for nation's to take, even if it means longer term pain?
    Revisiting the Huawei decision looks a rather easy action to take now.
This discussion has been closed.