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It's the overall number of deaths that is doubling every 3 days, not the daily rate of deaths...
We have circa 1000 dead today....in 3 days we will have overall 2000 dead (ie so we will see daily rises into the 300's in the next three days)
In 6 days we will have 4000 dead...which will be daily rises into the low 600's
In 9 days we will have 8000 dead...and then rises to 1000 a day plus....on a 3 day rule
If it's 4 days doubling.....we will rises of 250 a day for the next 4 days....
If it's 5 days doubling....we will see rates of 200 a day...so we will already be close to the worst....
We can see why flattening the curve will save tens of thousands of lives....
With things like the Olympics cancelled for a year what the f**k is the obsession with trying to finish the PL season? It comes across as highly insensitive given all the dire problems people are now facing on a daily basis. Greed pure and simple.
What really finished it for me was the Barcelona players refusing to accept a pay cut to a mere £100,000 or £200,000 a week, for the time being. With many of their compatriots in terrible trouble it just shows how far these guys are up their own backsides.
Once this crisis is finally over I wonder if it is going to result in a lot of people viewing a lot of things differently. The super rich would be well-advised to maintain low profiles for the foreseeable future .
Anyhow....I would feel really guilty walking around in a mask knowing that they have been rationed for NHS staff....and there is me protecting my sorry ass doing a spot of shopping....I'd have to donate my masks if I had them which I haven't so I do not face this moral dilemma...
That said...I think you are wrong about masks.....the Asians are much more likely to take instructions from authority...that's why...
Sports clubs, like theatres, hotels, pubs, restaurants all are at risk of going under.
Let them go bankrupt, the stadiums will still exist and the demand for football will still be there. The best players will get jobs with the new clubs once normality resumes.
That is the argument some on here are making for the rest of the economy, for the small business owner and the high street shop. So why not football as well.
Would just encourage people to go to each others houses to watch the games and have a few drinks together
Personally very much doubt next season will take place either
The testing the South Koreans did early and often is even more important than that to reduce the time we have to spend in future lockdowns until a vaccine is found
https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1243913186576867333?s=20
A local hospital put simple sewing instructions on the internet, I would share but it's in German. An important thing is to include something like a thin piece of metal to shape over the nose apparently
Incidentally do we know why the UK has fallen behind other countries on the amount of testing? At one point we were testing more but other countries seem to have overtaken us.
We are in danger of entering a dystopian scenario. Those with the antibody certificate can reenter society, those without must be locked in their homes.
This season is abandoned. The 20/21 season starts in August/September.
Promote those teams in promotion positions when th season was abandoned. Team in first play-off spot goes up.
No teams relegated.
Each team starts the 20/21 season with the points they had at the end of the abandoned 19/20 season - except the promoted teams, who have half the points they had at the time the season was abandoned.
Then play the full season and relegate sufficient teams to restore the leagues to the appropriate number at the end of the season.
But there will be a desire to pretend next season will happen until it is clear it won't in my opinion
This season will be binned by mid June and next season delayed a month later
Is it the intellectual property rights, is it the brand, the logo, the strip?
Is it the players, who generate the product (winning games)?
Or is it the fans, the customers, without whom neither of the above would matter.
Imagine Manchester United goes bust. It's unlikely the fans would suddenly start supporting Manchester City. In the way that people might switch to kit kats if penguin biscuits went bust.
But what if Man U went under and another club, Manchester Athletic was created, with a new logo and kit but signed all of Man U's laid off players. Would people transfer their allegiance?
It's an interesting question and perfectly possible some clubs will go to the wall, just as many overextended businesses will.
A wild guess/positive spin would be that they decided to prioritise expanding ICU provision and ventilators, rather than keeping a more accurate count of mild cases. If there are a fair number of asymptomatic cases then testing those with mild symptoms doesn't gain you much, particularly if you already tell anyone with symptoms to stay home anyway, and when the number of cases is high enough that contact tracing becomes impractical.
https://www.euronews.com/2020/03/24/coronavirus-czechs-facing-up-to-covid-19-crisis-by-making-masks-mandatory
Gary Neville's got the right idea. Just take as long as it takes to finish this one, then deal with next season with the information available then.
The number of ventilators you have in your health service and the rate of smoking amongst the population is more relevant to the death rate
Indeed, concerns have been raised by Czech media in recent days that the demand for medical masks among the public because of the regulation is causing shortages in hospitals, where they are needed most greatly. Many pharmacies and hospitals have now run out of stock, and the authorities are sequestering the current stock for use for doctors and other front-line medical staff and patients.
The PL and Championship have nine rounds of matches outstanding which wouldn't be too bad - four weeks of two games a week plus one final round so achievable.
The problem is you also have three rounds of FA Cup and European matches to complete.
We're looking at six weeks of 2-3 games per week for some teams and 1-2 for others so start mid June end late July and start the new season without a break. It might be achievable, it might not.
Matches played behind closed doors under tight security to begin with perhaps with relaxation later on.
For horse racing the flat season will need to be re-considered. The Guineas looks doubtful (early May) but the Derby and Ascot (which are as much social as sporting occasions and therefore staging them without spectators seems impractical) are June.
Oddly enough, the large events in each sport look more vulnerable than the day-to-day. Horse racing re-commencing at smaller fixtures behind closed doors in early May looks feasible subject to medical cover so a midweek Lingfield card would be a better option than Chester or the Dante meeting at York?
Dr. Anthony Fauci, the administration’s most outspoken advocate of emergency virus measures, faces a torrent of false claims that he is mobilizing to undermine the president.
Hopefully we are a in a truce now....but that is really shocking....
Cumo saw hospital acute admissions on a 4.7 day doubling...something that would have indicated that they are over or close to the worst.....
New York is going to be horrendous if that testing figure is right...
Or we get the vaccine.....
That is the only way you can get the economy again in any meaningful way....
Sadly we are stuck in quasi lockdown until that happens...
https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1243983843742437376
The other game changer is proven anti virals that mitigate the worst excesses of this disease....
Nope, needs to be 121c (250f) for at least 30 minutes.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/mar/28/fruit-and-veg-will-run-out-unless-britain-charters-planes-to-fly-in-farm-workers-from-eastern-europe
There'll be 90k workers to do this domestically once we're out of lockdown.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/12/science-soap-kills-coronavirus-alcohol-based-disinfectants
Doctors in the greater Paris region have warned their intensive care units will be full by the end of the weekend, whilst healthcare services in the east of France are already struggling to cope.
“We are fighting a battle that will take time,” Philippe said in a televised address. “The first two weeks of April will be harder than the two we have just lived through.”
The army and emergency workers were this weekend stepping up the transfer of patients to less-affected regions, using a military helicopter and a specially-adapted TGV train, in an attempt to free up intensive care beds in worst-hit areas.
By Saturday, the death toll in France was 2,314, with more than 37,575 confirmed cases, according to official figures.
However, the government tally only accounts for those dying in hospital, so the figure is likely to be much higher. Authorities say they will be able to compile data on deaths in retirement homes from next week, which is likely to result in an increase in the official death toll.
United Kingdom - 17,089
South Korea - 9,478
And I make that argument because if you can't ever go bankrupt, because the government will bail you out, then it is an optimal strategy to lever up as much as possible.
The reason why wealth inequality has increased in the last ten years is because of wealthy people being able to engage in a massive carry trade: borrow at 3%, invest at 5%. Free money. Oodles of free money. The more you leverage yourself, the richer you become.
If Virgin Atlantic go bust, it is shit for people who have loads of Virgin miles, like me. It's shit for Richard Branson. It's shit for the CEO, and various other people who own shares.
But it does not affect the productive power of the economy. Someone will come along, and buy Virgin Atlantic out of the administrators or recievers.
And even if they don't, then someone will lease some planes (they already exist) and setup a new route from LA to London. The amount of work done in the economy will be the same.
What we will have done, though, is make it clear to the wealthy that they cannot engage, at the public's expense, in a massive carry trade that does nothing for the real economy.
Bailing out Virgin Atlantic is corporatism. It stunk in the 1970s. And it stinks now. It doesn't save jobs, it merely encourages the uber-wealthy to borrow, borrow, borrow, borrow.
I can imagine the stress your under
As it happens I got news this evening about PPE situation here which both shocked and angered me.
It sounds like its more a distribution issue but jeez........
Already the broadcasters are seeing a collapse in their sports income and this can only get worse as we emerge into an economic disaster with lost jobs, businesses and confidence
At the end of June the broadcasters are likely to be locked in a huge legal fight with the football authorities. Clubs will see a collapse in season ticket sales and income from broadcasting
Players will be seeing large reductions in wages and transfer, as clubs see revenue drop from season ticket sales, broadcast income, and sponsorship
I see no pathway to football starting before late august but the chaos amongst clubs, players and supporters is going to be catastrophic. Indeed how many clubs will have players fit enough to play at the highest level and indeed how many will still be at the clubs they are today
I love football, but I believe everyone needs to accept it cannot be the same and even thinking about it is absurd in the context of the people's priorities, and the nations, post covid 19
I don't think the productive power of the economy will be damaged by, say, Man U going to the wall, either.
Surely the biggest swindle is the banks being able to borrow money at nothing or next to nothing, then loaning it out to the likes of you or me at 12% (for a business loan - 40% on an agreed overdraft!). I don't understand why the government doesn't loan or even give people the money directly.
Football still would work fine as a spectacle whether the players were amateur or billionaires. The players dont need to be as fit as they would be normally, if the opposition are also less fit, so that part is fine.
The Soton chairman said the govt were keen on them starting behind closed doors before the lockdown ends. Clubs and TV will also want that. So we will restart as soon as the players can be convinced, which will be the tricky point.
What we're all discovering right now is which football clubs did a good job of negotiating their insurance, and which did a poor one.
Rangers went bust.
Rangers still exists.
The whole point about being a shareholder, is that you're first against the wall. That's the deal implicit in capitalism. You get the spoils, but there has to be an element of risk.
I feel a lot happier about bailing out workers than I do about bailing out Richard Branson or the Glazers.
We will, therefore, have a much higher death rate.
As a Man U fan seeing United go bust would be worth it if it meant the Glazers were sent packing.
It would be a real shame to see some Premier League clubs go bust. I'd feel gutted if one or two went to the wall...
The report does also seem to suggest that a good proportion of those 50% that have died, the doctors didn't think they would make it when they were admitted.
It seems more they are indicating as the tsunami comes, the really old, the really frail, the really sick, all the evidence says have no chance and there will be triage rather than have them on a ventilator for 3 weeks with no likely improvement.