politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Without intensive social distancing the UK death-toll could re

Mysticrose said:

eadric said:

isam said:

I have followed the governments advice from day one, ordered my parents to stay in, clapped for the NHS at the front door at 8pm tonight, the whole shebang... but am I really the only one on here who doesn’t have nagging doubts that the 24hr news cycle, the tabloid headlines, the way of human nature to be preoccupied with catastrophe might mean we are over reacting?

I feel slightly like one of the Peoples Temple folk who drank the pretend poison Jim Jones gave them to test their loyalty before the kool aid came out

Normalcy bias is very hard to shift. Even tho i first identified this bias here on PB, I still suffer from it. Sometimes I walk out of my door, and think, “WTF, let’s go back to London. Have a nice lunch. This is absurd.”

But this isn’t absurd. This is a virus with the potential to collapse societies, via their health systems. Those are the cold hard facts, as we see in Wuhan, Italy and Spain.

We cannot deny it.

Indeed.

If anything I think a lot of people are still in denial.

We're about to see a death surge, especially in London.

By the way, I know a lot of people who have it, or we assume so. No testing so no proof.

FWIW I'm horrified that a cordon sanitaire hasn't been thrown up around London - roadblocks, no trains in or out - simply to protect the provinces.

If the capital goes the way of Lombardy then the obvious risk is that panicked Londoners will try to flee - not just wealthy second home owners, but those with friends or family elsewhere who are willing to put them up - thus spreading the disease everywhere else.

I'm not one of these self-proclaimed experts and I may very well be wrong, but this does have the appearance of a catastrophe waiting to happen.

Black_Rook said:

Mysticrose said:

eadric said:

isam said:

I have followed the governments advice from day one, ordered my parents to stay in, clapped for the NHS at the front door at 8pm tonight, the whole shebang... but am I really the only one on here who doesn’t have nagging doubts that the 24hr news cycle, the tabloid headlines, the way of human nature to be preoccupied with catastrophe might mean we are over reacting?

I feel slightly like one of the Peoples Temple folk who drank the pretend poison Jim Jones gave them to test their loyalty before the kool aid came out

Normalcy bias is very hard to shift. Even tho i first identified this bias here on PB, I still suffer from it. Sometimes I walk out of my door, and think, “WTF, let’s go back to London. Have a nice lunch. This is absurd.”

But this isn’t absurd. This is a virus with the potential to collapse societies, via their health systems. Those are the cold hard facts, as we see in Wuhan, Italy and Spain.

We cannot deny it.

Indeed.

If anything I think a lot of people are still in denial.

We're about to see a death surge, especially in London.

By the way, I know a lot of people who have it, or we assume so. No testing so no proof.

FWIW I'm horrified that a cordon sanitaire hasn't been thrown up around London - roadblocks, no trains in or out - simply to protect the provinces.

If the capital goes the way of Lombardy then the obvious risk is that panicked Londoners will try to flee - not just wealthy second home owners, but those with friends or family elsewhere who are willing to put them up - thus spreading the disease everywhere else.

I'm not one of these self-proclaimed experts and I may very well be wrong, but this does have the appearance of a catastrophe waiting to happen.

Those who can have already got out. Virtually every holiday home in Dartmouth is already occupied.

Last post for a few hours (I can only take in so much of this at a time). For the past week I've been pretty favourable about Boris and the Gov't. I think they're handling this pretty well. Boris looks knackered, which is good because he should do. They're doing alright imho. Thumbs up from this leftie.

However, they clearly should have acted sooner. Allowing Cheltenham to go ahead, for instance, was pretty gobsmacking.

Still, they have my support.

I don’t see why there should be an exodus of Londoners. It is still the case and will remain that there is a difference between the numbers that are “horrific” for the ability of the NHS to cope, and numbers that basic maths suggest that individuals have a significant chance of catching this and getting seriously ill.

Furthermore most people are extreme social distancing and are therefore not at particular risk. People who are at greater risk are people who are not in a position to practice extreme distancing (mainly due to work). Given that these people are already at greater risk they are not likely to suddenly take decisions to flee.

alex_ said:

I don’t see why there should be an exodus of Londoners. It is still the case and will remain that there is a difference between the numbers that are “horrific” for the ability of the NHS to cope, and numbers that basic maths suggest that individuals have a significant chance of catching this and getting seriously ill.

Furthermore most people are extreme social distancing and are therefore not at particular risk. People who are at greater risk are people who are not in a position to practice extreme distancing (mainly due to work). Given that these people are already at greater risk they are not likely to suddenly take decisions to flee.

Don’t confuse the matter with logic. Anyone who lives in an area with second homes has seen the Londoners flooding to them during the earlier part of this month. Thankfully they haven’t all been writing condescending articles for the Telegraph.

IanB2 said:

alex_ said:

I don’t see why there should be an exodus of Londoners. It is still the case and will remain that there is a difference between the numbers that are “horrific” for the ability of the NHS to cope, and numbers that basic maths suggest that individuals have a significant chance of catching this and getting seriously ill.

Furthermore most people are extreme social distancing and are therefore not at particular risk. People who are at greater risk are people who are not in a position to practice extreme distancing (mainly due to work). Given that these people are already at greater risk they are not likely to suddenly take decisions to flee.

Don’t confuse the matter with logic. Anyone who lives in an area with second homes has seen the Londoners flooding to them during the earlier part of this month. Thankfully they haven’t all been writing condescending articles for the Telegraph.

Such as Balmoral?

OldKingCole said:

IanB2 said:

alex_ said:

I don’t see why there should be an exodus of Londoners. It is still the case and will remain that there is a difference between the numbers that are “horrific” for the ability of the NHS to cope, and numbers that basic maths suggest that individuals have a significant chance of catching this and getting seriously ill.

Furthermore most people are extreme social distancing and are therefore not at particular risk. People who are at greater risk are people who are not in a position to practice extreme distancing (mainly due to work). Given that these people are already at greater risk they are not likely to suddenly take decisions to flee.

Don’t confuse the matter with logic. Anyone who lives in an area with second homes has seen the Londoners flooding to them during the earlier part of this month. Thankfully they haven’t all been writing condescending articles for the Telegraph.

Such as Balmoral?

I haven’t seen any articles, condescending or otherwise, written by Balmoral.

IanB2 said:

alex_ said:

I don’t see why there should be an exodus of Londoners. It is still the case and will remain that there is a difference between the numbers that are “horrific” for the ability of the NHS to cope, and numbers that basic maths suggest that individuals have a significant chance of catching this and getting seriously ill.

Furthermore most people are extreme social distancing and are therefore not at particular risk. People who are at greater risk are people who are not in a position to practice extreme distancing (mainly due to work). Given that these people are already at greater risk they are not likely to suddenly take decisions to flee.

Don’t confuse the matter with logic. Anyone who lives in an area with second homes has seen the Londoners flooding to them during the earlier part of this month. Thankfully they haven’t all been writing condescending articles for the Telegraph.

Yeah but my point is that anyone who is going has largely gone. There aren’t that many people with holiday homes.

Although it is not getting a lot of airtime, the Chancellor is already flagging that he is thinking about how to balance the books.

Harmonising self employed tax and NI with that of the employed clearly makes sense, and has been on the Treasury wish list for a while.

Was there ever a better time to make a bold move toward simplification and merge tax and NI altogether? Yes, there’ll be an extra burden on wealthier pensioners, but not an unreasonable one in the circumstances.

OldKingCole said:

Mysticrose said:

OldKingCole said:

Mysticrose said:

Black_Rook said:

Mysticrose said:

eadric said:

isam said:

I have followed the governments advice from day one, ordered my parents to stay in, clapped for the NHS at the front door at 8pm tonight, the whole shebang... but am I really the only one on here who doesn’t have nagging doubts that the 24hr news cycle, the tabloid headlines, the way of human nature to be preoccupied with catastrophe might mean we are over reacting?

I feel slightly like one of the Peoples Temple folk who drank the pretend poison Jim Jones gave them to test their loyalty before the kool aid came out

Normalcy bias is very hard to shift. Even tho i first identified this bias here on PB, I still suffer from it. Sometimes I walk out of my door, and think, “WTF, let’s go back to London. Have a nice lunch. This is absurd.”

But this isn’t absurd. This is a virus with the potential to collapse societies, via their health systems. Those are the cold hard facts, as we see in Wuhan, Italy and Spain.

We cannot deny it.

Indeed.

If anything I think a lot of people are still in denial.

We're about to see a death surge, especially in London.

By the way, I know a lot of people who have it, or we assume so. No testing so no proof.

I'm not one of these self-proclaimed experts and I may very well be wrong, but this does have the appearance of a catastrophe waiting to happen.

I think you're right. And much as I'd love the economy to get going again (TGOF666) if this goes the way of Italy then the virus will still be in charge, not the economy.

Positivity!
One of my sons does business with Chinese (and other) radio and TV stations, among others, and reports that his contacts and commercial prospects are starting up again. Texted yesterday to say he had a lot on; we asked work or family ..... and he replied 'both'.
China, he reports, is back to work now. Which is good news.

That is good.

It's going to be 'interesting' to see if the UK and especially US can arrive at that stage anything like so quickly without China's phenomenally stringent lockdown. Which is a loaded way of saying, we can't and we won't.

However, if China is starting to tick again afte 4-5 weeks mid May should see us (that's Europe) moving back to normality.
Whatever the new normality will be!

April will be grim. A lot of death. A lot of fear. A lot of businesses still falling over the edge.

But also a huge dropping off in numbers across Europe. USA - not so much.

May should see some optimism returning. The greatest challenge for Government in this whole crisis will be in handling this. Preventing a headlong rush to "normal" behaviour. Because everyone will be wanting to get out to their favourite pubs and restaurants and party like its 1999. Partly out of a desire to help them out and see them back in business. Partly because they have gone stir crazy.

And public health - your health in public - will be a Big Thing. Anyone with a summer cold will risk being beaten to a pulp by a mob. Coughing in public will be a capital offence, in the Court of Public Opinion. Temperature testing will be the norm before you are allowed in anywhere, on anything. I hope the Govt. has been sourcing these too, ready for their need as part of planning for the Time Afterwards.

IanB2 said:

Professor Barclay on Newsnight again making the point that the severity of your illness is influenced by the amount of virus you receive on first infection. She is a professor of infectious diseases so ought to know.

I noticed that she used the phrase "almost certainly".

MarqueeMark said:

OldKingCole said:

Mysticrose said:

OldKingCole said:

Mysticrose said:

Black_Rook said:

Mysticrose said:

eadric said:

isam said:

I have followed the governments advice from day one, ordered my parents to stay in, clapped for the NHS at the front door at 8pm tonight, the whole shebang... but am I really the only one on here who doesn’t have nagging doubts that the 24hr news cycle, the tabloid headlines, the way of human nature to be preoccupied with catastrophe might mean we are over reacting?

I feel slightly like one of the Peoples Temple folk who drank the pretend poison Jim Jones gave them to test their loyalty before the kool aid came out

Normalcy bias is very hard to shift. Even tho i first identified this bias here on PB, I still suffer from it. Sometimes I walk out of my door, and think, “WTF, let’s go back to London. Have a nice lunch. This is absurd.”

But this isn’t absurd. This is a virus with the potential to collapse societies, via their health systems. Those are the cold hard facts, as we see in Wuhan, Italy and Spain.

We cannot deny it.

Indeed.

If anything I think a lot of people are still in denial.

We're about to see a death surge, especially in London.

By the way, I know a lot of people who have it, or we assume so. No testing so no proof.

I'm not one of these self-proclaimed experts and I may very well be wrong, but this does have the appearance of a catastrophe waiting to happen.

I think you're right. And much as I'd love the economy to get going again (TGOF666) if this goes the way of Italy then the virus will still be in charge, not the economy.

Positivity!
One of my sons does business with Chinese (and other) radio and TV stations, among others, and reports that his contacts and commercial prospects are starting up again. Texted yesterday to say he had a lot on; we asked work or family ..... and he replied 'both'.
China, he reports, is back to work now. Which is good news.

That is good.

It's going to be 'interesting' to see if the UK and especially US can arrive at that stage anything like so quickly without China's phenomenally stringent lockdown. Which is a loaded way of saying, we can't and we won't.

However, if China is starting to tick again afte 4-5 weeks mid May should see us (that's Europe) moving back to normality.
Whatever the new normality will be!

April will be grim. A lot of death. A lot of fear. A lot of businesses still falling over the edge.

But also a huge dropping off in numbers across Europe. USA - not so much.

May should see some optimism returning. The greatest challenge for Government in this whole crisis will be in handling this. Preventing a headlong rush to "normal" behaviour. Because everyone will be wanting to get out to their favourite pubs and restaurants and party like its 1999. Partly out of a desire to help them out and see them back in business. Partly because they have gone stir crazy.

And public health - your health in public - will be a Big Thing. Anyone with a summer cold will risk being beaten to a pulp by a mob. Coughing in public will be a capital offence, in the Court of Public Opinion. Temperature testing will be the norm before you are allowed in anywhere, on anything. I hope the Govt. has been sourcing these too, ready for their need as part of planning for the Time Afterwards.

You can see travel bans to and from the US being in place long after they have ended elsewhere.

SouthamObserver said:

MarqueeMark said:

OldKingCole said:

Mysticrose said:

OldKingCole said:

Mysticrose said:

Black_Rook said:

Mysticrose said:

eadric said:

isam said:

I have followed the governments advice from day one, ordered my parents to stay in, clapped for the NHS at the front door at 8pm tonight, the whole shebang... but am I really the only one on here who doesn’t have nagging doubts that the 24hr news cycle, the tabloid headlines, the way of human nature to be preoccupied with catastrophe might mean we are over reacting?

I feel slightly like one of the Peoples Temple folk who drank the pretend poison Jim Jones gave them to test their loyalty before the kool aid came out

Normalcy bias is very hard to shift. Even tho i first identified this bias here on PB, I still suffer from it. Sometimes I walk out of my door, and think, “WTF, let’s go back to London. Have a nice lunch. This is absurd.”

But this isn’t absurd. This is a virus with the potential to collapse societies, via their health systems. Those are the cold hard facts, as we see in Wuhan, Italy and Spain.

We cannot deny it.

Indeed.

If anything I think a lot of people are still in denial.

We're about to see a death surge, especially in London.

By the way, I know a lot of people who have it, or we assume so. No testing so no proof.

I'm not one of these self-proclaimed experts and I may very well be wrong, but this does have the appearance of a catastrophe waiting to happen.

I think you're right. And much as I'd love the economy to get going again (TGOF666) if this goes the way of Italy then the virus will still be in charge, not the economy.

Positivity!
One of my sons does business with Chinese (and other) radio and TV stations, among others, and reports that his contacts and commercial prospects are starting up again. Texted yesterday to say he had a lot on; we asked work or family ..... and he replied 'both'.
China, he reports, is back to work now. Which is good news.

That is good.

It's going to be 'interesting' to see if the UK and especially US can arrive at that stage anything like so quickly without China's phenomenally stringent lockdown. Which is a loaded way of saying, we can't and we won't.

However, if China is starting to tick again afte 4-5 weeks mid May should see us (that's Europe) moving back to normality.
Whatever the new normality will be!

April will be grim. A lot of death. A lot of fear. A lot of businesses still falling over the edge.

But also a huge dropping off in numbers across Europe. USA - not so much.

May should see some optimism returning. The greatest challenge for Government in this whole crisis will be in handling this. Preventing a headlong rush to "normal" behaviour. Because everyone will be wanting to get out to their favourite pubs and restaurants and party like its 1999. Partly out of a desire to help them out and see them back in business. Partly because they have gone stir crazy.

And public health - your health in public - will be a Big Thing. Anyone with a summer cold will risk being beaten to a pulp by a mob. Coughing in public will be a capital offence, in the Court of Public Opinion. Temperature testing will be the norm before you are allowed in anywhere, on anything. I hope the Govt. has been sourcing these too, ready for their need as part of planning for the Time Afterwards.

You can see travel bans to and from the US being in place long after they have ended elsewhere.

Which, somewhat absurdly, would suit the Orange One

Mysticrose said:

Last post for a few hours (I can only take in so much of this at a time). For the past week I've been pretty favourable about Boris and the Gov't. I think they're handling this pretty well. Boris looks knackered, which is good because he should do. They're doing alright imho. Thumbs up from this leftie.

However, they clearly should have acted sooner. Allowing Cheltenham to go ahead, for instance, was pretty gobsmacking.

Still, they have my support.

Is Ireland showing a surge that could be attributed to Cheltenham? Not challenging you, just interested to know.

ydoethur said:

OldKingCole said:

SouthamObserver said:

MarqueeMark said:

OldKingCole said:

Mysticrose said:

OldKingCole said:

Mysticrose said:

Black_Rook said:

Mysticrose said:

eadric said:

isam said:

I have followed the governments advice from day one, ordered my parents to stay in, clapped for the NHS at the front door at 8pm tonight, the whole shebang... but am I really the only one on here who doesn’t have nagging doubts that the 24hr news cycle, the tabloid headlines, the way of human nature to be preoccupied with catastrophe might mean we are over reacting?

I feel slightly like one of the Peoples Temple folk who drank the pretend poison Jim Jones gave them to test their loyalty before the kool aid came out

Normalcy bias is very hard to shift. Even tho i first identified this bias here on PB, I still suffer from it. Sometimes I walk out of my door, and think, “WTF, let’s go back to London. Have a nice lunch. This is absurd.”

But this isn’t absurd. This is a virus with the potential to collapse societies, via their health systems. Those are the cold hard facts, as we see in Wuhan, Italy and Spain.

We cannot deny it.

Indeed.

If anything I think a lot of people are still in denial.

We're about to see a death surge, especially in London.

By the way, I know a lot of people who have it, or we assume so. No testing so no proof.

I'm not one of these self-proclaimed experts and I may very well be wrong, but this does have the appearance of a catastrophe waiting to happen.

I think you're right. And much as I'd love the economy to get going again (TGOF666) if this goes the way of Italy then the virus will still be in charge, not the economy.

Positivity!
One of my sons does business with Chinese (and other) radio and TV stations, among others, and reports that his contacts and commercial prospects are starting up again. Texted yesterday to say he had a lot on; we asked work or family ..... and he replied 'both'.
China, he reports, is back to work now. Which is good news.

That is good.

It's going to be 'interesting' to see if the UK and especially US can arrive at that stage anything like so quickly without China's phenomenally stringent lockdown. Which is a loaded way of saying, we can't and we won't.

However, if China is starting to tick again afte 4-5 weeks mid May should see us (that's Europe) moving back to normality.
Whatever the new normality will be!

April will be grim. A lot of death. A lot of fear. A lot of businesses still falling over the edge.

But also a huge dropping off in numbers across Europe. USA - not so much.

May should see some optimism returning. The greatest challenge for Government in this whole crisis will be in handling this. Preventing a headlong rush to "normal" behaviour. Because everyone will be wanting to get out to their favourite pubs and restaurants and party like its 1999. Partly out of a desire to help them out and see them back in business. Partly because they have gone stir crazy.

And public health - your health in public - will be a Big Thing. Anyone with a summer cold will risk being beaten to a pulp by a mob. Coughing in public will be a capital offence, in the Court of Public Opinion. Temperature testing will be the norm before you are allowed in anywhere, on anything. I hope the Govt. has been sourcing these too, ready for their need as part of planning for the Time Afterwards.

You can see travel bans to and from the US being in place long after they have ended elsewhere.

Which, somewhat absurdly, would suit the Orange One

Particularly if it causes the Mexicans to finally build that wall...

His prediction coming true because the Mexicans build and pay for a wall to keep infected Americans out would be the ultimate irony.

OldKingCole said:

Mysticrose said:

Black_Rook said:

Mysticrose said:

eadric said:

isam said:

I have followed the governments advice from day one, ordered my parents to stay in, clapped for the NHS at the front door at 8pm tonight, the whole shebang... but am I really the only one on here who doesn’t have nagging doubts that the 24hr news cycle, the tabloid headlines, the way of human nature to be preoccupied with catastrophe might mean we are over reacting?

I feel slightly like one of the Peoples Temple folk who drank the pretend poison Jim Jones gave them to test their loyalty before the kool aid came out

Normalcy bias is very hard to shift. Even tho i first identified this bias here on PB, I still suffer from it. Sometimes I walk out of my door, and think, “WTF, let’s go back to London. Have a nice lunch. This is absurd.”

But this isn’t absurd. This is a virus with the potential to collapse societies, via their health systems. Those are the cold hard facts, as we see in Wuhan, Italy and Spain.

We cannot deny it.

Indeed.

If anything I think a lot of people are still in denial.

We're about to see a death surge, especially in London.

By the way, I know a lot of people who have it, or we assume so. No testing so no proof.

I'm not one of these self-proclaimed experts and I may very well be wrong, but this does have the appearance of a catastrophe waiting to happen.

I think you're right. And much as I'd love the economy to get going again (TGOF666) if this goes the way of Italy then the virus will still be in charge, not the economy.

Positivity!
One of my sons does business with Chinese (and other) radio and TV stations, among others, and reports that his contacts and commercial prospects are starting up again. Texted yesterday to say he had a lot on; we asked work or family ..... and he replied 'both'.
China, he reports, is back to work now. Which is good news.

I just need them to start playing sport there again, especially now Russia is going to shut down and Ukraine may follow.

MarqueeMark said:

OldKingCole said:

Mysticrose said:

OldKingCole said:

Mysticrose said:

Black_Rook said:

Mysticrose said:

eadric said:

isam said:

I have followed the governments advice from day one, ordered my parents to stay in, clapped for the NHS at the front door at 8pm tonight, the whole shebang... but am I really the only one on here who doesn’t have nagging doubts that the 24hr news cycle, the tabloid headlines, the way of human nature to be preoccupied with catastrophe might mean we are over reacting?

I feel slightly like one of the Peoples Temple folk who drank the pretend poison Jim Jones gave them to test their loyalty before the kool aid came out

Normalcy bias is very hard to shift. Even tho i first identified this bias here on PB, I still suffer from it. Sometimes I walk out of my door, and think, “WTF, let’s go back to London. Have a nice lunch. This is absurd.”

But this isn’t absurd. This is a virus with the potential to collapse societies, via their health systems. Those are the cold hard facts, as we see in Wuhan, Italy and Spain.

We cannot deny it.

Indeed.

If anything I think a lot of people are still in denial.

We're about to see a death surge, especially in London.

By the way, I know a lot of people who have it, or we assume so. No testing so no proof.

I'm not one of these self-proclaimed experts and I may very well be wrong, but this does have the appearance of a catastrophe waiting to happen.

I think you're right. And much as I'd love the economy to get going again (TGOF666) if this goes the way of Italy then the virus will still be in charge, not the economy.

Positivity!
One of my sons does business with Chinese (and other) radio and TV stations, among others, and reports that his contacts and commercial prospects are starting up again. Texted yesterday to say he had a lot on; we asked work or family ..... and he replied 'both'.
China, he reports, is back to work now. Which is good news.

That is good.

It's going to be 'interesting' to see if the UK and especially US can arrive at that stage anything like so quickly without China's phenomenally stringent lockdown. Which is a loaded way of saying, we can't and we won't.

However, if China is starting to tick again afte 4-5 weeks mid May should see us (that's Europe) moving back to normality.
Whatever the new normality will be!

April will be grim. A lot of death. A lot of fear. A lot of businesses still falling over the edge.

But also a huge dropping off in numbers across Europe. USA - not so much.

May should see some optimism returning. The greatest challenge for Government in this whole crisis will be in handling this. Preventing a headlong rush to "normal" behaviour. Because everyone will be wanting to get out to their favourite pubs and restaurants and party like its 1999. Partly out of a desire to help them out and see them back in business. Partly because they have gone stir crazy.

And public health - your health in public - will be a Big Thing. Anyone with a summer cold will risk being beaten to a pulp by a mob. Coughing in public will be a capital offence, in the Court of Public Opinion. Temperature testing will be the norm before you are allowed in anywhere, on anything. I hope the Govt. has been sourcing these too, ready for their need as part of planning for the Time Afterwards.

There is still no obvious, long-term exit strategy. Rebounds are likely.

DecrepiterJohnL said:

MarqueeMark said:

IanB2 said:

Although it is not getting a lot of airtime, the Chancellor is already flagging that he is thinking about how to balance the books.

Harmonising self employed tax and NI with that of the employed clearly makes sense, and has been on the Treasury wish list for a while.

Was there ever a better time to make a bold move toward simplification and merge tax and NI altogether? Yes, there’ll be an extra burden on wealthier pensioners, but not an unreasonable one in the circumstances.

The economy has been tanked largely to save the elderly. The elderly are going to have to accept that there must be a price to pay for that.

The end of the triple lock for sure. We are going to be at risk of inflation. It has to go.

I'm not sure. Not sure about the end of the triple lock; not sure there will be increased inflation; not sure that increased inflation would be the best time, politically, to end the triple lock.

We might see inflation where customers are bidding for scarce resources like skiing holidays but prices might fall if customers remain wary of foreign resorts. We can also expect less demand for consumer goods that have been stockpiled, like toilet rolls, pasta, and Waitrose plonk at £4.95 a bottle.

It is more that for the next month (plus) the government is dropping the earnings of millions into the economy, while the money that would normally have circulated to provide these earnings is accumulating in savings accounts of those with stable incomes. Sooner or later this wall of money will likely lead to inflation; potential supply shortages because of the economic standstill and trade disruption are then a multiplying factor.

SouthamObserver said:

You can see travel bans to and from the US being in place long after they have ended elsewhere.

International travel will be greatly curtailed everywhere through 2020.

Ditto sporting events. I just can't see the Govt. allowing forty, fifty thousand people coming together until the experts tell them this thing is beaten. I am quite expecting football, rugby, cricket, horse racing not to return until 2021. And if that is what it takes to secure the rest of the economy, so be it.

MarqueeMark said:

SouthamObserver said:

You can see travel bans to and from the US being in place long after they have ended elsewhere.

International travel will be greatly curtailed everywhere through 2020.

Ditto sporting events. I just can't see the Govt. allowing forty, fifty thousand people coming together until the experts tell them this thing is beaten. I am quite expecting football, rugby, cricket, horse racing not to return until 2021. And if that is what it takes to secure the rest of the economy, so be it.

What changes in 2021?

felix said:

IanB2 said:

felix said:

SouthamObserver said:

Black_Rook said:

IanB2 said:

Professor Barclay on Newsnight again making the point that the severity of your illness is influenced by the amount of virus you receive on first infection. She is a professor of infectious diseases so ought to know.

Hence the worryingly high proportion of reported cases in Spain found in the medical profession.

Now that most people are keeping their distance from each other and all the shops and workplaces that are still operational are getting better at implementing good hygiene and social distancing practices, one wonders if the proportion of very mild or asymptomatic cases might increase accordingly?

In a best case scenario, we might find after three months that a large chunk of the country has had this illness whilst being either wholly unaware of it, or having self-isolated without being at all certain that they were suffering from it. Though this can only be determined once the testing capacity is sufficient to check a representative sample of the general population, of course.

A really striking thing about Spain is the percentage of deaths there have been in private rest homes for the elderly - about a third of the total. These are required to provide affordable care, but also turn a profit. The resulting trade-offs are only now coming to light. You cannot do social care on the cheap.

I'm not that close to the care home option personally yet I hope but it has made me consider my options for the future quite carefully. I think the Spanish generally show great care and respect for the elderly and pensions are very generous. Obviously care homes are going to be very vulnerable to this kind of disease but I think the scandals in Madrid is the exception rather tha normal.

The stories coming out of Spain of care home staff legging it and the home is found unstaffed with dead or dying residents, aren't great.

Indeed - but they don't reflect the norm I think - certainly where I live in the rural coastal south-east the respect for us 'ancianos' is a wonder to behold.

Near Roses?

MarqueeMark said:

IanB2 said:

Although it is not getting a lot of airtime, the Chancellor is already flagging that he is thinking about how to balance the books.

Harmonising self employed tax and NI with that of the employed clearly makes sense, and has been on the Treasury wish list for a while.

Was there ever a better time to make a bold move toward simplification and merge tax and NI altogether? Yes, there’ll be an extra burden on wealthier pensioners, but not an unreasonable one in the circumstances.

The economy has been tanked largely to save the elderly. The elderly are going to have to accept that there must be a price to pay for that.

The end of the triple lock for sure. We are going to be at risk of inflation. It has to go.

Wasnt one of the issues of triple lock that very low inflation meant pensions went up by more? Higher inflation removes one lock.

MarqueeMark said:

SouthamObserver said:

You can see travel bans to and from the US being in place long after they have ended elsewhere.

International travel will be greatly curtailed everywhere through 2020.

Ditto sporting events. I just can't see the Govt. allowing forty, fifty thousand people coming together until the experts tell them this thing is beaten. I am quite expecting football, rugby, cricket, horse racing not to return until 2021. And if that is what it takes to secure the rest of the economy, so be it.

I fear so but this masks our ignorance of precisely how Covid-19 spreads in the real world. Is it spread amongst crowds in open air stadia? Perhaps, there are suggestions it crossed between Spain and Italy via football. But where is the work here showing its spread followed the Premier League fixture list? There have been a handful of reports linking infection to the Cheltenham Festival but this is anecdotal at best so far. There seems to be more evidence pointing to indoor religious ceremonies.

Jonathan said:

MarqueeMark said:

SouthamObserver said:

You can see travel bans to and from the US being in place long after they have ended elsewhere.

International travel will be greatly curtailed everywhere through 2020.

Ditto sporting events. I just can't see the Govt. allowing forty, fifty thousand people coming together until the experts tell them this thing is beaten. I am quite expecting football, rugby, cricket, horse racing not to return until 2021. And if that is what it takes to secure the rest of the economy, so be it.

What changes in 2021?

A year of this will change behaviours. Some of it adopted by society, some of it enforced by law. Any form of fever, cough, anything that might even POSSIBLY be CV-19 will mean you and your family stay under lockdown for 14 days.

This forest fire will eventually run out of trees.

logical_song said:

Mysticrose said:

And another thing, I handle any deliveries with gloves on, take them into my outdoor room, wipe down the packaging with anti-bacterials, then dispose of the packaging before stripping down and washing.

I know. I know.

You really need anti-virals.

Or a stiff drink.

The aftermath for know nothing twats is going to be millennium bug V2. Except this time the no nothing twats, instead of not seeing the millions of person hours that went into fixing the problem as with the millennium bug, will have actually lived through and experienced the effort to stop half a million+ people dying and still go "load of fuss about nothing".

Jonathan said:

Do we really believe that all those paid by government out of work will have jobs at the end of all this? Unemployment is going up.

What jobs are going to go in your opinion? There is going to be hella pent up demand...

MarqueeMark said:

Jonathan said:

MarqueeMark said:

SouthamObserver said:

You can see travel bans to and from the US being in place long after they have ended elsewhere.

International travel will be greatly curtailed everywhere through 2020.

Ditto sporting events. I just can't see the Govt. allowing forty, fifty thousand people coming together until the experts tell them this thing is beaten. I am quite expecting football, rugby, cricket, horse racing not to return until 2021. And if that is what it takes to secure the rest of the economy, so be it.

What changes in 2021?

A year of this will change behaviours. Some of it adopted by society, some of it enforced by law. Any form of fever, cough, anything that might even POSSIBLY be CV-19 will mean you and your family stay under lockdown for 14 days.

This forest fire will eventually run out of trees.

The U.K. has a population of around 60M , depending on the model there have been hundreds of thousands of cases so far.

Ergo there are many, many more trees and without a vaccine this is here to stay for a while. 2021 might not be hugely different.

Luckyguy1983 said:

Morning all. Friday!

Indeed! And to bring some semblance of normality I am sat at my desk in a 3 piece suit. #dressupfriday

IanB2 said:

felix said:

IanB2 said:

felix said:

SouthamObserver said:

Black_Rook said:

IanB2 said:

Professor Barclay on Newsnight again making the point that the severity of your illness is influenced by the amount of virus you receive on first infection. She is a professor of infectious diseases so ought to know.

Hence the worryingly high proportion of reported cases in Spain found in the medical profession.

Now that most people are keeping their distance from each other and all the shops and workplaces that are still operational are getting better at implementing good hygiene and social distancing practices, one wonders if the proportion of very mild or asymptomatic cases might increase accordingly?

In a best case scenario, we might find after three months that a large chunk of the country has had this illness whilst being either wholly unaware of it, or having self-isolated without being at all certain that they were suffering from it. Though this can only be determined once the testing capacity is sufficient to check a representative sample of the general population, of course.

A really striking thing about Spain is the percentage of deaths there have been in private rest homes for the elderly - about a third of the total. These are required to provide affordable care, but also turn a profit. The resulting trade-offs are only now coming to light. You cannot do social care on the cheap.

I'm not that close to the care home option personally yet I hope but it has made me consider my options for the future quite carefully. I think the Spanish generally show great care and respect for the elderly and pensions are very generous. Obviously care homes are going to be very vulnerable to this kind of disease but I think the scandals in Madrid is the exception rather tha normal.

The stories coming out of Spain of care home staff legging it and the home is found unstaffed with dead or dying residents, aren't great.

Indeed - but they don't reflect the norm I think - certainly where I live in the rural coastal south-east the respect for us 'ancianos' is a wonder to behold.

Near Roses?

That’s north east.

MarqueeMark said:

paulyork64 said:

MarqueeMark said:

IanB2 said:

Although it is not getting a lot of airtime, the Chancellor is already flagging that he is thinking about how to balance the books.

Harmonising self employed tax and NI with that of the employed clearly makes sense, and has been on the Treasury wish list for a while.

Was there ever a better time to make a bold move toward simplification and merge tax and NI altogether? Yes, there’ll be an extra burden on wealthier pensioners, but not an unreasonable one in the circumstances.

The economy has been tanked largely to save the elderly. The elderly are going to have to accept that there must be a price to pay for that.

The end of the triple lock for sure. We are going to be at risk of inflation. It has to go.

Wasnt one of the issues of triple lock that very low inflation meant pensions went up by more? Higher inflation removes one lock.

Introduced in 2011 by the coalition government, the triple lock guarantees that the basic state pension will rise by a minimum of either 2.5%, the rate of inflation or average earnings growth, whichever is largest.

The triple lock is doomed.

You are Fraser and i claim my £5

MarqueeMark said:

Jonathan said:

MarqueeMark said:

SouthamObserver said:

You can see travel bans to and from the US being in place long after they have ended elsewhere.

International travel will be greatly curtailed everywhere through 2020.

Ditto sporting events. I just can't see the Govt. allowing forty, fifty thousand people coming together until the experts tell them this thing is beaten. I am quite expecting football, rugby, cricket, horse racing not to return until 2021. And if that is what it takes to secure the rest of the economy, so be it.

What changes in 2021?

A year of this will change behaviours. Some of it adopted by society, some of it enforced by law. Any form of fever, cough, anything that might even POSSIBLY be CV-19 will mean you and your family stay under lockdown for 14 days.

This forest fire will eventually run out of trees.

Testing and test availablity will mean the need for these measures becomes less urgent.

TOPPING said:

MarqueeMark said:

Jonathan said:

MarqueeMark said:

SouthamObserver said:

You can see travel bans to and from the US being in place long after they have ended elsewhere.

International travel will be greatly curtailed everywhere through 2020.

Ditto sporting events. I just can't see the Govt. allowing forty, fifty thousand people coming together until the experts tell them this thing is beaten. I am quite expecting football, rugby, cricket, horse racing not to return until 2021. And if that is what it takes to secure the rest of the economy, so be it.

What changes in 2021?

A year of this will change behaviours. Some of it adopted by society, some of it enforced by law. Any form of fever, cough, anything that might even POSSIBLY be CV-19 will mean you and your family stay under lockdown for 14 days.

This forest fire will eventually run out of trees.

Testing and test availablity will mean the need for these measures becomes less urgent.

Tests do not grant immunity.

IshmaelZ said:

Black_Rook said:

Mysticrose said:

eadric said:

isam said:

I have followed the governments advice from day one, ordered my parents to stay in, clapped for the NHS at the front door at 8pm tonight, the whole shebang... but am I really the only one on here who doesn’t have nagging doubts that the 24hr news cycle, the tabloid headlines, the way of human nature to be preoccupied with catastrophe might mean we are over reacting?

I feel slightly like one of the Peoples Temple folk who drank the pretend poison Jim Jones gave them to test their loyalty before the kool aid came out

Normalcy bias is very hard to shift. Even tho i first identified this bias here on PB, I still suffer from it. Sometimes I walk out of my door, and think, “WTF, let’s go back to London. Have a nice lunch. This is absurd.”

But this isn’t absurd. This is a virus with the potential to collapse societies, via their health systems. Those are the cold hard facts, as we see in Wuhan, Italy and Spain.

We cannot deny it.

Indeed.

If anything I think a lot of people are still in denial.

We're about to see a death surge, especially in London.

By the way, I know a lot of people who have it, or we assume so. No testing so no proof.

FWIW I'm horrified that a cordon sanitaire hasn't been thrown up around London - roadblocks, no trains in or out - simply to protect the provinces.

If the capital goes the way of Lombardy then the obvious risk is that panicked Londoners will try to flee - not just wealthy second home owners, but those with friends or family elsewhere who are willing to put them up - thus spreading the disease everywhere else.

I'm not one of these self-proclaimed experts and I may very well be wrong, but this does have the appearance of a catastrophe waiting to happen.

Orange telecoms in France reckon from mobile usage data that 20% of Parisians have left Paris. I would not have guessed that more than say 2% had realistic options as to where to go. I don't think you can stop 20% of a city from leaving it without a full on shooting war.

I believe many people who live and work in Paris have access to family homes elsewhere in France. A friend lives in the Cantal and says many houses are seasonally occupied.

RochdalePioneers said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Morning all. Friday!

Indeed! And to bring some semblance of normality I am sat at my desk in a 3 piece suit. #dressupfriday

With cufflinks like David Cameron or Jacob Rees-Mogg, or ordinary, buttoned single cuffs like our man-of-the-people, Eton and Oxford Prime Minister?

Luckyguy1983 said:

Jonathan said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Jonathan said:

Do we really believe that all those paid by government out of work will have jobs at the end of all this? Unemployment is going up.

What jobs are going to go in your opinion? There is going to be hella pent up demand...

Travel and tourism will be decimated. Not sure demand will be higher, everyone will be poorer.

Why would *everyone* be poorer? There's nothing to spend money on. Even working from home alone entails massive savings on transport, food and coffee.

There is the minor detail that those "massive savings" were the income for a large slice of our population.

TGOHF666 said:

The negative effects could be many - in the rush to repair the economy a lot of social fabric could get torn up - the independent shop bought by the big chain with stockpiles of cash, the local pub robbed of revenue turned into flats, millions of small businesses/sole traders now seeking the security of a salary.

There needs a big push to begin to end this lock down as soon as possible to minimise permanent damage.

Ending a lockdown too soon is a recipe for a lockdown sandwich, with dead people in the middle.

However one thing the government could be doing that would fit right in its comfort zone would be liberalizing p2p lending, small investments and crowd-funding. With a few exceptions like Amazon, big companies are going to be bleeding cash just like small ones. However the difference is that they can borrow or issue stock more easily. So make it easier for people with local knowledge of smaller businesses that would be solid but for the shutdowns to invest in a little bit of money and keep them afloat in the hope of an eventual profit.

MarqueeMark said:

TOPPING said:

MarqueeMark said:

Jonathan said:

MarqueeMark said:

SouthamObserver said:

You can see travel bans to and from the US being in place long after they have ended elsewhere.

International travel will be greatly curtailed everywhere through 2020.

Ditto sporting events. I just can't see the Govt. allowing forty, fifty thousand people coming together until the experts tell them this thing is beaten. I am quite expecting football, rugby, cricket, horse racing not to return until 2021. And if that is what it takes to secure the rest of the economy, so be it.

What changes in 2021?

A year of this will change behaviours. Some of it adopted by society, some of it enforced by law. Any form of fever, cough, anything that might even POSSIBLY be CV-19 will mean you and your family stay under lockdown for 14 days.

This forest fire will eventually run out of trees.

Testing and test availablity will mean the need for these measures becomes less urgent.

Sure. But that requires the testing to be available. And once tested, formalising a certificate (that cannot be forged) to show you are clean....

What do the majority of people who have not had it yet do once tested? Do they lockdown or is there a lottery to determine who can come out and thereby throttle infection to a sustainable pace?

RochdalePioneers said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Morning all. Friday!

Indeed! And to bring some semblance of normality I am sat at my desk in a 3 piece suit. #dressupfriday

With cufflinks like David Cameron or Jacob Rees-Mogg, or ordinary, buttoned single cuffs like our man-of-the-people, Eton and Oxford Prime Minister?

Double-cuff shirts are the only shirts. Lets have a bit of fucking decorum

What’s a shirt?

Jonathan said:

MarqueeMark said:

TOPPING said:

MarqueeMark said:

Jonathan said:

MarqueeMark said:

SouthamObserver said:

You can see travel bans to and from the US being in place long after they have ended elsewhere.

International travel will be greatly curtailed everywhere through 2020.

Ditto sporting events. I just can't see the Govt. allowing forty, fifty thousand people coming together until the experts tell them this thing is beaten. I am quite expecting football, rugby, cricket, horse racing not to return until 2021. And if that is what it takes to secure the rest of the economy, so be it.

What changes in 2021?

A year of this will change behaviours. Some of it adopted by society, some of it enforced by law. Any form of fever, cough, anything that might even POSSIBLY be CV-19 will mean you and your family stay under lockdown for 14 days.

This forest fire will eventually run out of trees.

Testing and test availablity will mean the need for these measures becomes less urgent.

Sure. But that requires the testing to be available. And once tested, formalising a certificate (that cannot be forged) to show you are clean....

What do the majority of people who have not had it yet do once tested? Do they lockdown or is there a lottery to determine who can come out and thereby throttle infection to a sustainable pace?

You would hope that the number of cases is reduced to the point where ANY possible infection gets immediately tested, with a lock down for 14 days where positive (and in any event, until the test result is known). Backed up by legislation that it is a notifiable disease with sanctions for those who do not notify their GP (or a new specialist department) of the mere possibility of having it.

We just have to treat it like smallpox, for the economic damage it can cause.

Foxy said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

We know that social contact these days is out. We know that alcohol above 70% kills the virus. We know that hydroxychloroqin has proven an effective treatment in some cases and is a derivative of quinine. We now find out that lying on your front can stop you needing a ventilator. So really, the solution is to get sh*t-faced on maximum strength G&T, alone, and end up passing out face forward.

We do not know that chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine have been proven effective, though studies are ongoing. The Chinese study communicated yesterday showed no effect. In addition it can interfere with cardiac conduction, potentially an issue with COVID19 myocarditis. I appreciate there is a certain amount of levity in your comment, but would be cautious about the rush to judgement.

In terms of positioning, there is an interesting review of prone ventilation for ARDS here:

There are some benefits, and some downsides. The better oxygenation and reduced lung injury vs increased cardiac arrest.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4173887/

@GideonWise may be interested

How are you doing today?

MarqueeMark said:

Jonathan said:

MarqueeMark said:

TOPPING said:

MarqueeMark said:

Jonathan said:

MarqueeMark said:

SouthamObserver said:

You can see travel bans to and from the US being in place long after they have ended elsewhere.

International travel will be greatly curtailed everywhere through 2020.

Ditto sporting events. I just can't see the Govt. allowing forty, fifty thousand people coming together until the experts tell them this thing is beaten. I am quite expecting football, rugby, cricket, horse racing not to return until 2021. And if that is what it takes to secure the rest of the economy, so be it.

What changes in 2021?

A year of this will change behaviours. Some of it adopted by society, some of it enforced by law. Any form of fever, cough, anything that might even POSSIBLY be CV-19 will mean you and your family stay under lockdown for 14 days.

This forest fire will eventually run out of trees.

Testing and test availablity will mean the need for these measures becomes less urgent.

Sure. But that requires the testing to be available. And once tested, formalising a certificate (that cannot be forged) to show you are clean....

What do the majority of people who have not had it yet do once tested? Do they lockdown or is there a lottery to determine who can come out and thereby throttle infection to a sustainable pace?

You would hope that the number of cases is reduced to the point where ANY possible infection gets immediately tested, with a lock down for 14 days where positive (and in any event, until the test result is known). Backed up by legislation that it is a notifiable disease with sanctions for those who do not notify their GP (or a new specialist department) of the mere possibility of having it.

We just have to treat it like smallpox, for the economic damage it can cause.

So we’re back to January/February and to a containment strategy? Whilst it might work better than last time, somehow I doubt it will work. It only takes one or two individuals to let the genie out of the bottle.

MarqueeMark said:

paulyork64 said:

MarqueeMark said:

IanB2 said:

Although it is not getting a lot of airtime, the Chancellor is already flagging that he is thinking about how to balance the books.

Harmonising self employed tax and NI with that of the employed clearly makes sense, and has been on the Treasury wish list for a while.

Was there ever a better time to make a bold move toward simplification and merge tax and NI altogether? Yes, there’ll be an extra burden on wealthier pensioners, but not an unreasonable one in the circumstances.

The economy has been tanked largely to save the elderly. The elderly are going to have to accept that there must be a price to pay for that.

The end of the triple lock for sure. We are going to be at risk of inflation. It has to go.

Wasnt one of the issues of triple lock that very low inflation meant pensions went up by more? Higher inflation removes one lock.

Introduced in 2011 by the coalition government, the triple lock guarantees that the basic state pension will rise by a minimum of either 2.5%, the rate of inflation or average earnings growth, whichever is largest.

The triple lock is doomed.

You're understanding it backwards.

Increasing by the rate of inflation doesn't cost anything at all in real terms.

Increasing by 2.5% if inflation is extremely low is expensive in real terms.

MarqueeMark said:

May should see some optimism returning. The greatest challenge for Government in this whole crisis will be in handling this. Preventing a headlong rush to "normal" behaviour. Because everyone will be wanting to get out to their favourite pubs and restaurants and party like its 1999. Partly out of a desire to help them out and see them back in business. Partly because they have gone stir crazy.

Yup, we saw a bit of this in Japan. After it got stung by screwing up the cruise ship situation the government did some only moderately aggressive but very timely things like asking events to shut down and people to work from home, and stopped what had been quite a steep upward curve, albeit with shitty testing so we couldn't quite be sure how much they were missing. Then a week ago, with the curve flattened and starting to trend down, they announced that they'd be reopening schools.

When they announced reopening schools they didn't say, "OK, crisis over, everybody go ahead with your events and travel". But this came right before a three-day weekend, and a lot of people seem to have interpreted it like that. This was right when a bunch of infected people were showing up from Europe and the US. So we had three days with loads of social contact, at a really bad time. Then now a week later the governor of Tokyo has slammed on the brakes and gone to the opposite extreme of telling people not to leave their homes over the weekend, and we have to wait a couple of weeks before we know how much damage was done.

One thing they might want to do is that whenever they relax a big, blunt weapon of a measure like telling everybody to stay at home, also announce a bunch of stricter more targeted measures, like (pulling this out of my arse, not saying it's the most effective thing) permanently closing a load of pubs with poor ventilation. They really need the message to be "this is how we can make a permanent change to get our lives back while dealing with this threat", not "the threat is gone, everything can go back to normal".

Nigelb said:

Mysticrose said:

Nigelb said:

alterego said:

eadric said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

eadric said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Nigelb said:

glw said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

My spirits were also raised listening to Bill Gates yesterday talk about how this necessity will drive a whole wave of innovation and should result in rapid testing and cures for a whole range of diseases.

Well I would bloody well hope so, because as bad as things are this is NOT the doomsday virus. This is merely a preview of what can happen in our modern globalised world of free trade, open borders, and widespread air travel.

Apart from anything else, it’s going to massively drive down the seasonal flu figures for the next twelve months...

I bloody hope we adopt the Asian culture of wearing masks when you feel ill. It has to be the least you can do for everybody. When you think about it now, you really are an arsehole aren't you, sitting there on a bus coughing your guts up, spreading colds and flus everywhere.

I find this frustrating to the point of fury. WEAR A MASK

You don’t wear it because you will stop yourself catching it (tho it will help) you wear it because it will stop you SPREADING it. You can’t sneeze and cough so freely, through a surgical mask.

This alone counts for the huge difference between East Asian death/infection rates, and those we are now seeing in the West.

WEAR A MASK. ALWAYS.

Trouble is we all know you weren't wearing one to stop spreading anything, you were wearing one because you thought it would stop you catching the thing. You said as much on here numerous times.

Trying to pretend this was not the case now is just dishonest.

I’m not pretending anything! I readily admit to this.

I had my mask-OMG moment only about 10 days ago, when I was reading Twitter, and someone made this really quite obvious point. By wearing a mask, you reduce the risk of you getting infected, but way more efficiently you reduce the chances of YOU spreading it,

Wearing a mask is a social nicety in the same way you sneeze into a hand. Except it saves lives.

It’s that simple. In times of pandemic flu, everyone should wear a mask. They cost about 2p. Just do it. And we will be more like South Korea than Italy.

The WHO has a view on this

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public/when-and-how-to-use-masks

As has been pointed out, the WHO has not covered itself in glory with its advice on Coronavirus.
And there is research which demonstrates the utility of masks in preventing the spread of viral infection. I’ll post a link to some when I’m no longer on my mobile.

Yep they obviously do help.

I have a really good mask with a high grade filtration system and replacable (washable) filters.

I wear it everywhere.

It also prevents me from putting my hands on my face, a point apparently lost on some.

Here's a paper on the efficacy of ordinary surgical masks:
Influenza Virus Aerosols in Human Exhaled Breath: Particle Size, Culturability, and Effect of Surgical Masks
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3591312/

The key phrase being "worn by infected persons".

Of course, we don't know who is and isn't.

But the way masks are being used by many almost certainly uninfected persons appears likely to increase rather than reduce their chances of infection. Which is why they aren't recommended for the general public.