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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Without intensive social distancing the UK death-toll could reach 500k – leading epidemiologist
2/4 -This is not the case. Indeed, if anything, our latest estimates suggest that the virus is slightly more transmissible than we previously thought. Our lethality estimates remain unchanged.
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Leaving the typo for pistorety.
It's nice to see the positive sometimes.
Edit: And no, I didn't get that insight from a fortune cookie, it was probably a fantasy novel, since that's where I get most of my insights
Probably the same people who think the instruction to only leave the house for essentials and one short walk / run / cycle per day, including going on a 10hr day trip to the Peak District.
My spirits were also raised listening to Bill Gates yesterday talk about how this necessity will drive a whole wave of innovation and should result in rapid testing and cures for a whole range of diseases.
We might also see more of the stuff with the likes of Dyson getting in on the ventilator business. Perhaps this pause will allow other companies to see what other opportunities there are out there.
Perhaps the media might no be quite so sniffy about the idea of "Big Society" type initiatives. Although, so far, their reaction to every announcement by the government, is well this is shit. You know they were waiting for only 10,000 people to sign up to this volunteer scheme and claim what a stupid idea it was.
https://www.itv.com/news/calendar/2020-03-26/humberside-police-creates-online-portal-to-report-people-not-social-distancing/
Although in Kay Burley's case, I think she genuinely is.
https://twitter.com/NickCohen4/status/1243267455541284865
just trying to work out what’s fair way to do it I think the consensus the discussion coming to, If there is going to be claw back cost of “whatever it takesonomics”, the tax should be targeted at gainers, and non movers, not any big losers or “were struggling already”?
Can we pinpoint those? who is doing well and making money in this crisis.
Supermarkets surely?
Amazon.
Netflix? If viewing figures up, advertising revenue up, all TV companies?
Money not otherwise spent would be in savings accounts or investments, should we go there with tax plans?
If offices not being used, they consumed less energy, so target the energy firms?
People spent the time in the garden. The gardens look great. Garden tax.
PB. Getting more posts, more hits, more revenue? Tax PB?
I actually wonder if that is the point of the demonstrations as seen at 8pm tonight.
Sadly the media has vastly exaggerated confusion over government advice. The vast majority seem to get it, at least to the extent that they don't see the need to ask their MP about it.
I feel slightly like one of the Peoples Temple folk who drank the pretend poison Jim Jones gave them to test their loyalty before the kool aid came out
They are already stacking the bodies in refrigerated trucks, because the hospital morgue is full.
And this is in the most developed country in the world. The healthcare insurance system might be crap and inefficient, but they have huge capacity and the best tech in their hospitals.
And they haven't even got near the peak yet.
Trying to pretend this was not the case now is just dishonest.
Perhaps they should start with Radiohead...
I'll get me coat.
I am many miles away from any real population density so it is even stranger. I turn on the tv, see all the reports, look at the maths and see where it is predicted to go. Yet outside my door nothing looks any different from a few weeks ago.
I remember a poster on here who said the sight of them made him feel sick (and not in a virusy, achy limb sorta way).
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public/when-and-how-to-use-masks
https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1224734993966096387
Unless you are sure “whatever it takes” will always lead to the same outcome in everybody’s hands? So it’s right questions are asked, pressure groups have clarity and put pressure on for more action. Because we cant stop either the virus, or damage to economy, nor that there will be a bill to pay, but the ideal medium is where we slow the damage, and hold politicians to their Promise we have all been in this together every step of the way during and after.
Can we achieve the innovation and creativity needed now by closing down this and other discussion? So My proclivities are for normal politics now. For the record are you calling for normal politics and government scrutiny to be suspended?
https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/1243353923055955970?s=21
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/coronavirus-prompts-no-10-to-suspend-housing-market-mwvj3t8xt
this isn't what the legislation says, which is 'no person may leave the place where they are living without reasonable excuse.'
'reasonable excuse includes the need to'
'to take exercise either alone or with other members of their household;'
They are saying there should be no non-essential travel. While I don't think driving 100 miles to the Lake District is reasonable, it doesn't seem that there's anything wrong with driving to some quiet woodland to walk your dog, and the police should not be gold-plating legislation.
https://www.facebook.com/PenzancePolice/photos/a.359329124199631/1911115405687654/
For seven years here I thought I knew what silence was, so different to the background hurly-burley of the rest of the country. But this past week has been another magnitude of silence. Maybe the infrasound has dropped away. The acceptance of a level of background noise that comes from traffic miles away. Jets 40,000 feet away. They all still caused the song of a skylark overhead to be masked.
No longer.
https://twitter.com/ClarkeMicah/status/1243303990932144128
https://twitter.com/PrisonPlanet/status/1243219912191082497
https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/03/26/covidnazis-uk-police-force-clamps-down-on-rural-dog-walkers/
https://thehill.com/homenews/media/489720-cnns-keilar-gets-in-testy-exchange-with-white-house-official-youre-wasting
Edit: test.
Eta: see?
As far as government finances are concerned, tax revenues will be considerably reduced: income and corporation tax, VAT and Stamp Duty, taxes on bookmakers' profits, although inheritance tax revenues might be up. Government expenditure will be much higher due to financial support schemes. I suspect that the government cannot fund it for much more than a year. If they print money, there will be inflation which will affect food prices.
The reduction in corporate profits and asset values will hit the solvency of pension schemes, which may have to reduce their payments. Lots of people are going to get poorer and have difficulty paying their bills which will increase as time goes by.
The lockdown will also cause serious difficulties which will be felt more slowly. The shutdown of the education system will lead to illiteracy, and a shortage of people with the educational background required to train as doctors and nurses, computer programmers and other key skills. The lockdown will lead to a reduction in the birth rate as new relationships can no longer be formed. Some countries will not have contained the virus, and in those countries after the epidemic has ended normal life will resume. There may be emigration from the UK into those countries. This is a scenario, not a prediction, however we do not have long to wait. In a few weeks' time we will know if the epidemic has been controlled, and the government will have to set out its longer term plans for the country.
And there is research which demonstrates the utility of masks in preventing the spread of viral infection. I’ll post a link to some when I’m no longer on my mobile.
There needs a big push to begin to end this lock down as soon as possible to minimise permanent damage.
Coronavirus: Jeremy Corbyn says he was proved "right" on public spending
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-52048213
As a thought experiment, imagine that Corbyn had been elected PM and was enacting precisely the same measures. Somehow I think we’d be hearing more howls of concern from Tories.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/26/virtual-summit-real-acrimony-eu-leaders-clash-over-corona-bonds-151291
I have a really good mask with a high grade filtration system and replacable (washable) filters.
I wear it everywhere.
It also prevents me from putting my hands on my face, a point apparently lost on some.
It's all very well stating that health and saving lives must come before all else; in practice the state can't continue to protect everyone if the complete destruction of the economy deprives it of the funds to do so. A compromise will inevitably have to be struck.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/index.html
Where did you get it?
In this if in no other sense, coronavirus has changed nothing.
If anything I think a lot of people are still in denial.
We're about to see a death surge, especially in London.
By the way, I know a lot of people who have it, or we assume so. No testing so no proof.
After Easter there should be some relaxation - schools back, more types of shops opened.
I've had some essential work / travel but as of two days ago I've stopped that. So now I wear my mask for my 1. weekly shop and 2. daily walk. I've been wearing it in the UK for over a month. I used to get odd looks. No more.
Now that most people are keeping their distance from each other and all the shops and workplaces that are still operational are getting better at implementing good hygiene and social distancing practices, one wonders if the proportion of very mild or asymptomatic cases might increase accordingly?
In a best case scenario, we might find after three months that a large chunk of the country has had this illness whilst being either wholly unaware of it, or having self-isolated without being at all certain that they were suffering from it. Though this can only be determined once the testing capacity is sufficient to check a representative sample of the general population, of course.
I think it's a mindset. The moment I leave the door I view my hands as a germ vector.
OCD? Not under the circumstances. Still might catch the bugger but at least I'm trying my best not to.
I know. I know.