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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The minor parties – A quiet consolidation?
The long term trend through the seven European parliament elections we’ve had since 1979 is the growth of minor parties. Even with the rise of UKIP the level of dominance of the vote share by the parties in the top two, three, or four positions is in long term decline.
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Robert Kimbell @RedHotSquirrel 21s
YouGov/Sunday Times #Scotland poll for #EP2014 - all degrees of certainty to vote:
29% SNP
25% LAB
18% #UKIP 18%
10% LDEM
8% GRN
8% CON
UKIP scored 23% in London, 35% rest of South, 32% Midlands & Wales, 35% in the North and 18% in Scotland
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-27178205
Until recently, the only alternative for them was the SNP.
This could be interesting.
.....One thing to beware of - individual sub-samples in YouGov are not weighted by previous voting - and as they are quite small, tend to significant fluctuation (trans - aren't really reliable), so even if it was 185 people, as it isn't weighted, you really can't read too much into it.
Their only real value is in winding up the un-wary!
Oh look! Tories ahead of SNP in Scotland!
Oh Look! SNP double Labour in Scotland!
Hours of harmless fun, but little illumination....
The second graph lists 'others' as 5th place and lower.
Bye-bye rebate......
We have more top universities, per head, than any other member of the EU
And we will not be welcoming English, Welsh and Northern Irish students free of charge.
Grabbing the figures very quickly (and I don't know how this'll come out on Vanilla).
Lab+Con Lab+Con+LD
1979 83.6--- 96.7
1984 77.3--- 96.8
1989 74.8--- 81
1994 72.1--- 88.8
1999 63.8--- 76.5
2004 49.3--- 64.2
2009 43.6--- 57.3
I moved to a top 2/3/4 thing to try and account for UKIP's rise and it still showed a steady rise in minor parties.
Certainly can't see Farage showing his face in Scotland in the near future after the fun of his visit to Edinburgh
....applied for the 'Thought Police' in Salmond's Brave New World? (to mix literary metaphors...)
isam said:
CarlottaVance said: isam said:McUKIP
I see our Nationalist friends have been throwing rocks.....
.....One thing to beware of - individual sub-samples in YouGov are not weighted by previous voting - and as they are quite small, tend to significant fluctuation (trans - aren't really reliable), so even if it was 185 people, as it isn't weighted, you really can't read too much into it.
Their only real value is in winding up the un-wary!
Oh look! Tories ahead of SNP in Scotland!
Oh Look! SNP double Labour in Scotland!
Hours of harmless fun, but little illumination....
Yeah I know you cant rely on small sample sizes, just thought it was a fun tweet.
If those other countries had indigenous papers like the Mail, Telegraph and Express, they would screaming hysterically about 'English scroungers' invading their countries to take advantage of cheap/free higher education.
Any one on here have a connection to Blackburn? Plotting something (nice).
Additionally if you assume that the Tories are largest party and could form a stable coalition then it is very unlikely that Labour + LibDem would be a stable majority. Hence the line of argument would be "Depriving Britain of a stable government because they didn't want to give the British people a choice".
You may hate the guy, but really, truly, your best chance of getting a vote in the next decade is to vote Tory.
As Old labour stated , England is out of line with most European countries.
But the university education funding in England is bolloxed up. Too many people do useless courses - I'd rather see them charged more, with STEM students charged less and the whole thing funded to make it needs blind
Best Prices
11/10 UKIP
5/4 Labour
10s Conservatives
250s LDs
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/uk-european-election/most-votes
UKIP-Lab-Con 11/8
Lab-UKIP-Con 6/4
Works out a 2/9 Short
Havent done the maths but I am sure that must be value based on Evs, Evs, 10s, 250s
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/uk-european-election/vote-share-tricast-betting
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/uk-european-election/turnout
Cheered me up no end....
All of this is a gradual game-changer, but an important one. I'm interested to see how Ed finally succumbs to the inevitable euro poll.
In all of this there is a significant and long-lasting opportunity for the Tories. If they can catch the mood on Europe.
But yeah I think you are right
Might bring your £25 with me to DDs Friday.. weighed in surely?!
I do worry though that some Universities seem to have entirely disregarded any concept of standards. I interviewed a candidate recently who was doing a Masters in maths at a lesser London institute and he was below what used to be O level standard. Doubly horrid therefore are all these people that study meaningless things to low standards.
I'd like to suggest that the heads of the institutions where standards are low should be shot, but I'll do so anyway. Unfortunately they are almost universally the daftest people on the planet, so my censure won't reach them.
So..we arrive at a question - why are the stupid people lording it over our educational establishments? We all know it's that way.. It's impossible that my little boy's history teacher (for example) knows anything like as much history as I do. His maths teacher won't have the first clue, The English department will be failed actors, with a turn of phrase, but little else..
Really good teachers are needed - let them teach 100 at a time. 1 percent of great is worth 33% of rubbish every day.
But in reality Willettts has created a huge mess and is dumping his incompetence on future generations. PB righties will wail and shout at the labour's NHS computer fiasco but are trappist monks on the problem developing under their noses. Cowardice.
Teaching in the UK is not a prestige profession any more, if it ever was.
Much as I think UKIP a folly, it is an improvement on the BNP.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/04/ukip-on-course-to-come-first-in-the-euro-elections/
But the other answers are also troublesome: paying for uni fees out of general taxation, or reducing the number of people going to uni. I'd actually favour the latter, as long as there were very good vocational courses to take their place.
Oi! Though not a Conservative I think I am of the right, certainly on this site, and resent that remark. Regrettably until some government has the balls to stand up and re-state the purpose of universities and so repudiate this nonsense of 50% of youngsters going to one then the fees fiasco is going to continue.
Maybe there is wriggle room for a future government to pay all fees, and maybe even give a maintenance grant, to students on STEM courses, but that will have to be balanced by students on medieval-pottery and flower arranging type courses from fourth rate former polies being charged full fees and getting bugger all in the way of help or deferrals of repayment. Imagine the screams that would cause. Need a brave PM to implement it, so it won't happen under Cameron or any of his cronies.
The ideal situation would be independent universities, sent out with a generous dowry from the government so they could start needs blind. The government could then choose to subsidise those courses where there are positive externalities for society as a whole. And that probably doesn't include PPE ;-)
Some people say they've had problems finding UKIP's Energy Policy on-line. Sorry about that. It's here: http://is.gd/dsE33x
Talking of which Mr Llama, you asked me a question the other day about this and I responded. Did you see it, and if so, what were you thoughts?
But my basic premise is aiming for 50% of people with a uni degree is stupid. Especially when the 50% target appears to have been plucked out of New Labour's backside with no basis for it.
Here's a possibly stupid idea: pay lecturers or departments a little extra money when the graduates have been paying income tax for three years in the field they were taught in, or a related one.
The problem is we don't optimise for student outcomes in our education system. Take, for example, this school in Hampstead:
http://www.ofsted.gov.uk/inspection-reports/find-inspection-report/provider/ELS/131978
Throughout the report it mentions just how well the children are achieving:
"The school fosters in pupils a positive attitude and love for learning, enthusiasm, perseverance and the ability to work and learn well. "
"Pupils’ behaviour and personal development are outstanding."
"Achievement is high in writing with many older pupils writing at length, especially in connection with their research projects."
"Pupils’ numeracy skills are very well developed."
"Pupils also learn well, for example, in developing their investigative learning skills, including simple science experimentation."
""They also develop a wider range of skills, for example, by taking part in end-of-term drama productions."
"Pupils gain very rich cultural and social experiences by supporting local and national charities."
Surely an outstanding school then? No, it just got a "good", because it's a Montessori school, and doesn't adopt the latest educational trends of the Department for Education, preferring the tried-and-tested Montessori method. This means it gets interpreted as not having "plans for improvement" as they're not planning to change things, only to change them back in a few years. The teachers actually work to direct children to learn themselves, rather than using the latest whiteboard dogma that you need to get "outstanding" in teacher quality.
Meanwhile other schools that really put on a show for Ofsted and do exactly what they say get "outstandings" despite the children doing worse. It's crazy.
Personally, I'd like them to go on a bit more about the various aspects of security of supply, but that's just me ...
It is not yet outstanding because
Leaders know most of the school’s strengths
but there is limited self-review and there are
few plans for bringing about further
improvements, for example to teaching and
learning, and consequently to pupils’ rates of
progress.
What does the school need to do to improve further?
Improve the quality of leadership and management by:
introducing a better system so that leaders can evaluate more accurately the school's
strengths and weaknesses in specific areas and plan more precisely for further
improvements in teaching and learning and other aspects of the school's work.
The school must meet the following independent school standards.
Ensure that there is suitable accommodation for the medical examination and treatment of
pupils (paragraph 23B(1)(a)).
Provide accommodation for the short-term care of sick or injured pupils, which includes a
washing facility and is near to a suitable toilet facility (paragraph 23B(1)(b)).
Pray explain something that baffles me. The Unionists keep telling us that Scotland will be out of the EU and EWNI in it - or is it the other way round, I keep getting confused ... and yet this supposed flood of English students will only happen when both are in the EU ...
So lower other votes is problematic for the Lib Dems. Ideally they would want to get voters moved from the top 3 parties to others given a fixed vote percentage for the LDs. This would reduce the ratios for C/LD etc which is the tactical solution given the voting system for the euros.
2013 county council elections, with 2010 result in brackets:
Con 44% (54%)
Lab 21% (22%)
UKIP 14% (4%)
LD 12% (20%)
Ind 8% (-)
Labour's vote was down on the general election, which makes it look like they wouldn't have much chance of winning the seat in a by-election.
The comments you quoted to reach outstanding was because the leadership isn't bringing in Ofsted's advice on evaluating the school to see if they're doing Ofsted's favourite approaches. And then they don't have a plan to adopt those favourite approaches. i.e. they're focused on getting the kids to do well rather than opting in to New Labour's old command from the centre approach to education. Even though the kids are performing extremely well in all areas. Any sensible planner knows a good evaluation system should judge on outcomes, not inputs. But the educational establishment hates people doing things in a different way.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/nigel-farage-challenges-salmond-to-tv-debate-1-3376352
The most recent EU Parliament poll for Scotland put UKIP on 10%.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2014_(United_Kingdom)#Scottish_polls
The European Election will be pretty interesting. I'd guess it'll remain a UKIP-Labour fight for the win, with the Conservatives in a distinct third and the Lib Dems playing the role of Monty Python's Black Knight.
Here's a question: if UKIP win, and Labour are second, will the media portray this as worse for Miliband, or Cameron?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2014_(United_Kingdom)#London_polls
2009:
BNP: 6.3%
Eng Dem: 1.9%
No2EU: 1.0%
Jury Team: 0.5%
UK First: 0.5%
Libertas: 0.5%
Total: 10.7%
If UKIP took 90% of these votes (which is plausible IMO) they'd already be on 26% without having made any inroads into Con, Lab, LD support.
When you start to say pupils can't fail, and then teachers can't be bad then you drift into this.
http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/education/teachers-salaries_teachsal-table-en
This is not me looking for an excuse to attack teachers pay, in fact personally I would like to see good teachers rewarded with substantially more pay and have their financial rewards match an increased prestige. I was just mildly surprised that pay is apparently not the defining factor behind Finnish success.
Since Mr Clegg took over the LDs have been overspending every year. Unless they've done some radical cost cutting since publishing their last accounts, their post 2015 GE finances are going to look grim.
http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/find-information-by-subject/political-parties-campaigning-and-donations/political-parties-annual-accounts/2012#LD
Only UKIP can beat Labour. UKIP need to make this case to Conservative voters. If Europhile Labour come top, it will be taken by the European elite that the UK is actually supportive of EU integration after all.
It then becomes interesting as to which of the two 'big' parties get more flak. Probably Labour. Cameron can at least point to being in power and getting a low risk kick from the electorate.
What's Miliband's excuse?
But, if Labour top the poll all the pressure will be on the blues (if they come third, obviously. If UKIP are third that'd be terrible for them).
The biggest determinant of a school's success is the quality of students but accepting that scientific fact would mean overthrowing the post 60s Marxist consensus and we can't have that.
In an ideal world, the most eurosceptic party, UKIP, would come first and the most europhile party, the Lib Dems would lose all their seats. Then the "losers" would not be any particular party, it would be a failure for the EU overall. That way it might shake them out of their malaise that their project is unravelling.
"Ofsted is a corrupt organisation" as one secondary school head said to me the other day.
@Ominium
"When you start to say pupils can't fail"
Who says pupils can't fail? They can get a U at GCSE for example.
In a moderately improved world the electoral result you indicate would occur. Every chance the sceptical party will come first and the EU-philes will finish last.
As such, although many in Labour will be concerned at UKIP topping the poll, they can make the usual noises about protest party and need to reform the EU, while not being all that concerned because if UKIP can retain half or even a third of what they get in the Euros at the GE, then Ed M is PM, and they would pay any future price of dealing with that surge in UKIP support in order to achieve that end.
Quincel puts it very well, in that 'government humiliated in third' is a lot easier to write and explain than 'You should really think the people coming second have done worse than those in third', even if technically an argument can be made.
They'll both probably be hoping for a LD wipeout, as that will distract from the need to explain anything about their own performance. 'It's not our fault or our EU policies, not really - they took a slight hit, but it was because the LDs collapsed to nothing'.