politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The minor parties – A quiet consolidation?
The long term trend through the seven European parliament elections we’ve had since 1979 is the growth of minor parties. Even with the rise of UKIP the level of dominance of the vote share by the parties in the top two, three, or four positions is in long term decline.
Comments
-
Surely one of the reasons for this is that UKIP has swallowed the BNP vote (6% in the last Euros) almost wholesale.0
-
McUKIP
Robert Kimbell @RedHotSquirrel 21s
YouGov/Sunday Times #Scotland poll for #EP2014 - all degrees of certainty to vote:
29% SNP
25% LAB
18% #UKIP 18%
10% LDEM
8% GRN
8% CON0 -
How are the Greens doing this time around anyway? I only ever hear about them during the kind of stunts that are the only way they get coverage.0
-
It's an interesting analysis but I don't think we can ignore that UKIP has gained promotion from Others into the Premier League. The numbers would look quite different if instead of 'top two' we had 'Con+Lab' and instead of 'top three' we had 'Con+Lab+LD', which is the traditional definition of the Big Two and Big Three respectively.0
-
Utter bollocks, anybody that thinks UKIP will get 18% ( or within a mile of it ) in Scotland is barkingisam said:McUKIP
Robert Kimbell @RedHotSquirrel 21s
YouGov/Sunday Times #Scotland poll for #EP2014 - all degrees of certainty to vote:
29% SNP
25% LAB
18% #UKIP 18%
10% LDEM
8% GRN
8% CON0 -
Presume that's a sub sample?isam said:McUKIP
Robert Kimbell @RedHotSquirrel 21s
YouGov/Sunday Times #Scotland poll for #EP2014 - all degrees of certainty to vote:
29% SNP
25% LAB
18% #UKIP 18%
10% LDEM
8% GRN
8% CON
0 -
Good to see Liverpool get stuffed.0
-
0
-
Or the LDs 10%malcolmg said:
Utter bollocks, anybody that thinks UKIP will get 18% ( or within a mile of it ) in Scotland is barkingisam said:McUKIP
Robert Kimbell @RedHotSquirrel 21s
YouGov/Sunday Times #Scotland poll for #EP2014 - all degrees of certainty to vote:
29% SNP
25% LAB
18% #UKIP 18%
10% LDEM
8% GRN
8% CON
0 -
Yeah 185 peopleTheuniondivvie said:
Presume that's a sub sample?isam said:McUKIP
Robert Kimbell @RedHotSquirrel 21s
YouGov/Sunday Times #Scotland poll for #EP2014 - all degrees of certainty to vote:
29% SNP
25% LAB
18% #UKIP 18%
10% LDEM
8% GRN
8% CON
UKIP scored 23% in London, 35% rest of South, 32% Midlands & Wales, 35% in the North and 18% in Scotland0 -
The sight of Salmond grovelling at the feet of Brussels bigwigs should put them on 25%;malcolmg said:
Utter bollocks, anybody that thinks UKIP will get 18% ( or within a mile of it ) in Scotland is barkingisam said:McUKIP
Robert Kimbell @RedHotSquirrel 21s
YouGov/Sunday Times #Scotland poll for #EP2014 - all degrees of certainty to vote:
29% SNP
25% LAB
18% #UKIP 18%
10% LDEM
8% GRN
8% CON
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-271782050 -
An interesting analysis Corporeal – Just to clarify, are UKIP still classified as ‘others’ or have they been elevated to first division and replaced by the Lib Dems?0
-
For once I tend to agree, however, there are still a lot of right wing supporters in Scotland who wouldn't consider voting Conservative but would vote for an available alternative in opposition to voting for Labour or the LibDems.malcolmg said:
Utter bollocks, anybody that thinks UKIP will get 18% ( or within a mile of it ) in Scotland is barkingisam said:McUKIP
Robert Kimbell @RedHotSquirrel 21s
YouGov/Sunday Times #Scotland poll for #EP2014 - all degrees of certainty to vote:
29% SNP
25% LAB
18% #UKIP 18%
10% LDEM
8% GRN
8% CON
Until recently, the only alternative for them was the SNP.
This could be interesting.
0 -
It seems a tad early yet so i assume that's an outlying sample but given Con murdered their Scottish vote during the 80s it would be logical for any eventual reboot to come from a different party.malcolmg said:
Utter bollocks, anybody that thinks UKIP will get 18% ( or within a mile of it ) in Scotland is barkingisam said:McUKIP
Robert Kimbell @RedHotSquirrel 21s
YouGov/Sunday Times #Scotland poll for #EP2014 - all degrees of certainty to vote:
29% SNP
25% LAB
18% #UKIP 18%
10% LDEM
8% GRN
8% CON
0 -
I see our Nationalist friends have been throwing rocks.....isam said:McUKIP
.....One thing to beware of - individual sub-samples in YouGov are not weighted by previous voting - and as they are quite small, tend to significant fluctuation (trans - aren't really reliable), so even if it was 185 people, as it isn't weighted, you really can't read too much into it.
Their only real value is in winding up the un-wary!
Oh look! Tories ahead of SNP in Scotland!
Oh Look! SNP double Labour in Scotland!
Hours of harmless fun, but little illumination....
0 -
Which graph do you mean? The first graph is by finishing position (i.e. top 2, top 3, top 4) so that depends on the election.SimonStClare said:An interesting analysis Corporeal – Just to clarify, are UKIP still classified as ‘others’ or have they been elevated to first division and replaced by the Lib Dems?
The second graph lists 'others' as 5th place and lower.0 -
As one of the wealthiest countries, Scotland is a net financial contributor to the EU and will remain so as an independent member.MonikerDiCanio said:
The sight of Salmond grovelling at the feet of Brussels bigwigs should put them on 25%;malcolmg said:
Utter bollocks, anybody that thinks UKIP will get 18% ( or within a mile of it ) in Scotland is barkingisam said:McUKIP
Robert Kimbell @RedHotSquirrel 21s
YouGov/Sunday Times #Scotland poll for #EP2014 - all degrees of certainty to vote:
29% SNP
25% LAB
18% #UKIP 18%
10% LDEM
8% GRN
8% CON
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-27178205
Bye-bye rebate......
We have more top universities, per head, than any other member of the EU
And we will not be welcoming English, Welsh and Northern Irish students free of charge.
0 -
Mm not really.david_herdson said:It's an interesting analysis but I don't think we can ignore that UKIP has gained promotion from Others into the Premier League. The numbers would look quite different if instead of 'top two' we had 'Con+Lab' and instead of 'top three' we had 'Con+Lab+LD', which is the traditional definition of the Big Two and Big Three respectively.
Grabbing the figures very quickly (and I don't know how this'll come out on Vanilla).
Lab+Con Lab+Con+LD
1979 83.6--- 96.7
1984 77.3--- 96.8
1989 74.8--- 81
1994 72.1--- 88.8
1999 63.8--- 76.5
2004 49.3--- 64.2
2009 43.6--- 57.3
I moved to a top 2/3/4 thing to try and account for UKIP's rise and it still showed a steady rise in minor parties.0 -
LoL, the "I Hate Scotland and the SNP" twins are on top formCarlottaVance said:
As one of the wealthiest countries, Scotland is a net financial contributor to the EU and will remain so as an independent member.MonikerDiCanio said:
The sight of Salmond grovelling at the feet of Brussels bigwigs should put them on 25%;malcolmg said:
Utter bollocks, anybody that thinks UKIP will get 18% ( or within a mile of it ) in Scotland is barkingisam said:McUKIP
Robert Kimbell @RedHotSquirrel 21s
YouGov/Sunday Times #Scotland poll for #EP2014 - all degrees of certainty to vote:
29% SNP
25% LAB
18% #UKIP 18%
10% LDEM
8% GRN
8% CON
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-27178205
Bye-bye rebate......
We have more top universities, per head, than any other member of the EU
And we will not be welcoming English, Welsh and Northern Irish students free of charge.0 -
Then again the UKIP organisation in Scotland is still in chaos. Haven't heard of any action or pamphleting any where.
Certainly can't see Farage showing his face in Scotland in the near future after the fun of his visit to Edinburgh0 -
Harsh.SimonStClare said:
An interesting analysis Corporeal – Just to clarify, are UKIP still classified as ‘others’ or have they been elevated to first division and replaced by the Lib Dems?
0 -
One again, you equate questioning SNP policy with 'Hating Scotland"malcolmg said:
LoL, the "I Hate Scotland and the SNP" twins are on top formCarlottaVance said:
As one of the wealthiest countries, Scotland is a net financial contributor to the EU and will remain so as an independent member.MonikerDiCanio said:
The sight of Salmond grovelling at the feet of Brussels bigwigs should put them on 25%;malcolmg said:
Utter bollocks, anybody that thinks UKIP will get 18% ( or within a mile of it ) in Scotland is barkingisam said:McUKIP
Robert Kimbell @RedHotSquirrel 21s
YouGov/Sunday Times #Scotland poll for #EP2014 - all degrees of certainty to vote:
29% SNP
25% LAB
18% #UKIP 18%
10% LDEM
8% GRN
8% CON
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-27178205
Bye-bye rebate......
We have more top universities, per head, than any other member of the EU
And we will not be welcoming English, Welsh and Northern Irish students free of charge.
....applied for the 'Thought Police' in Salmond's Brave New World? (to mix literary metaphors...)
0 -
Yeah I know you cant rely on small sample sizes, just thought it was a fun tweet.CarlottaVance said:
I see our Nationalist friends have been throwing rocks.....isam said:McUKIP
.....One thing to beware of - individual sub-samples in YouGov are not weighted by previous voting - and as they are quite small, tend to significant fluctuation (trans - aren't really reliable), so even if it was 185 people, as it isn't weighted, you really can't read too much into it.
Their only real value is in winding up the un-wary!
Oh look! Tories ahead of SNP in Scotland!
Oh Look! SNP double Labour in Scotland!
Hours of harmless fun, but little illumination....0 -
The first thing I noticed about it was 'redhotsquirrel'.
isam said:
CarlottaVance said: isam said:McUKIP
I see our Nationalist friends have been throwing rocks.....
.....One thing to beware of - individual sub-samples in YouGov are not weighted by previous voting - and as they are quite small, tend to significant fluctuation (trans - aren't really reliable), so even if it was 185 people, as it isn't weighted, you really can't read too much into it.
Their only real value is in winding up the un-wary!
Oh look! Tories ahead of SNP in Scotland!
Oh Look! SNP double Labour in Scotland!
Hours of harmless fun, but little illumination....
Yeah I know you cant rely on small sample sizes, just thought it was a fun tweet.
0 -
FPT @Socrates
Very unlikely they will get a majority, but not impossible. Never say never. Additionally, I don't believe that the Tories would enter into a coalition which did not allow for an EU referendum. I am sure the LibDems would see it as a way to extract a very high price, because Cameron would not personally survive a Coalition Agreement without a referendum commitmentSocrates said:
The Tories will never win a majority at the next election, thus we are not going to get a referendum in the 2015-2020 period. The question is whether we will get one post-2020. We are much more likely to get that with a strong UKIP performance in 2015, rather than them becoming a busted flush that underperforms.Charles said:
Wrong. If you don't like what the Tories manage to negotiate then you can vote to leave. Support UKIP and you won't get the opportunity to decide.Socrates said:@tykejohnno
Opinion polls show the thing the British public want to renegotiate most from the EU is control of immigration. Richard Nabavi has already admitted that this will never happen within the EU. So if you want that, your best bet is not the Tories at all.
It's the classic conundrum: snipe from the sidelines but have no impact on the outcome, or compromise a little and get most of what you want
0 -
Regarding student fees, England looks like the odd one out in the British Isles and Europe not only because they are levied, but also because they are so high.
If those other countries had indigenous papers like the Mail, Telegraph and Express, they would screaming hysterically about 'English scroungers' invading their countries to take advantage of cheap/free higher education.-1 -
O/T
Any one on here have a connection to Blackburn? Plotting something (nice).0 -
Careful you will burst Carlotta's bubble, she thinks paying £9K a year is fair and hates the dastardly SNP for providing it for free.old_labour said:Regarding student fees, England looks like the odd one out in the British Isles and Europe not only because they are levied, but also because they are so high.
If those other countries had indigenous papers like the Mail, Telegraph and Express, they would screaming hysterically about 'English scroungers' invading their countries to take advantage of cheap/free higher education.0 -
And the Lib Dems would never accept it. So the Tories won't form a Coalition and won't be in government after 2015, even if they have most seats.Charles said:Additionally, I don't believe that the Tories would enter into a coalition which did not allow for an EU referendum.
0 -
Correction: it's not free. It's just paid for by someone else.malcolmg said:
Careful you will burst Carlotta's bubble, she thinks paying £9K a year is fair and hates the dastardly SNP for providing it for free.old_labour said:Regarding student fees, England looks like the odd one out in the British Isles and Europe not only because they are levied, but also because they are so high.
If those other countries had indigenous papers like the Mail, Telegraph and Express, they would screaming hysterically about 'English scroungers' invading their countries to take advantage of cheap/free higher education.0 -
Why are you so certain the LibDems wouldn't accept it?Socrates said:
And the Lib Dems would never accept it. So the Tories won't form a Coalition and won't be in government after 2015, even if they have most seats.Charles said:Additionally, I don't believe that the Tories would enter into a coalition which did not allow for an EU referendum.
Additionally if you assume that the Tories are largest party and could form a stable coalition then it is very unlikely that Labour + LibDem would be a stable majority. Hence the line of argument would be "Depriving Britain of a stable government because they didn't want to give the British people a choice".
You may hate the guy, but really, truly, your best chance of getting a vote in the next decade is to vote Tory.
0 -
Charles, you can split hairs , but it is free to the student, which is not the case in England. Carlotta's petty carping that Scotland should provide free education to English students whilst England charges Scottish students £9K a year is pathetic.Charles said:
Correction: it's not free. It's just paid for by someone else.malcolmg said:
Careful you will burst Carlotta's bubble, she thinks paying £9K a year is fair and hates the dastardly SNP for providing it for free.old_labour said:Regarding student fees, England looks like the odd one out in the British Isles and Europe not only because they are levied, but also because they are so high.
If those other countries had indigenous papers like the Mail, Telegraph and Express, they would screaming hysterically about 'English scroungers' invading their countries to take advantage of cheap/free higher education.
As Old labour stated , England is out of line with most European countries.0 -
If the SNP thinks working class Labour voters in Glasgow should subsidise the University education of nice middle class students from Edinburgh, that's their case to make, not mine.malcolmg said:
Careful you will burst Carlotta's bubble, she thinks paying £9K a year is fair and hates the dastardly SNP for providing it for free.old_labour said:Regarding student fees, England looks like the odd one out in the British Isles and Europe not only because they are levied, but also because they are so high.
If those other countries had indigenous papers like the Mail, Telegraph and Express, they would screaming hysterically about 'English scroungers' invading their countries to take advantage of cheap/free higher education.
0 -
I reckon it's not splitting hairs, but a pretty fundamental point, which people should really understand because it underlies all voting.malcolmg said:
Charles, you can split hairs , but it is free to the student, which is not the case in England. Carlotta's petty carping that Scotland should provide free education to English students whilst England charges Scottish students £9K a year is pathetic.Charles said:
Correction: it's not free. It's just paid for by someone else.malcolmg said:
Careful you will burst Carlotta's bubble, she thinks paying £9K a year is fair and hates the dastardly SNP for providing it for free.old_labour said:Regarding student fees, England looks like the odd one out in the British Isles and Europe not only because they are levied, but also because they are so high.
If those other countries had indigenous papers like the Mail, Telegraph and Express, they would screaming hysterically about 'English scroungers' invading their countries to take advantage of cheap/free higher education.
As Old labour stated , England is out of line with most European countries.
But the university education funding in England is bolloxed up. Too many people do useless courses - I'd rather see them charged more, with STEM students charged less and the whole thing funded to make it needs blind
0 -
It's the EU rules, not anyone's "petty carping" - but stick your head back in the sand where it is evidently most comfortable.malcolmg said:
Carlotta's petty carping that Scotland should provide free education to English students whilst England charges Scottish students £9K a year is pathetic.Charles said:
Correction: it's not free. It's just paid for by someone else.malcolmg said:
Careful you will burst Carlotta's bubble, she thinks paying £9K a year is fair and hates the dastardly SNP for providing it for free.old_labour said:Regarding student fees, England looks like the odd one out in the British Isles and Europe not only because they are levied, but also because they are so high.
If those other countries had indigenous papers like the Mail, Telegraph and Express, they would screaming hysterically about 'English scroungers' invading their countries to take advantage of cheap/free higher education.
0 -
Ladbrokes cut UKIP to Even money for the Euros
Best Prices
11/10 UKIP
5/4 Labour
10s Conservatives
250s LDs
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/uk-european-election/most-votes0 -
Under that scenario the Tories come first with the democratic mandate and can't form a govt because the party that came fourth or third refuses to allow a direct vote by the people? That position seems an unlikely political sell for the yellows.Socrates said:
And the Lib Dems would never accept it. So the Tories won't form a Coalition and won't be in government after 2015, even if they have most seats.Charles said:Additionally, I don't believe that the Tories would enter into a coalition which did not allow for an EU referendum.
0 -
With the current EU polling as it is I cant see much wrong with backing
UKIP-Lab-Con 11/8
Lab-UKIP-Con 6/4
Works out a 2/9 Short
Havent done the maths but I am sure that must be value based on Evs, Evs, 10s, 250s
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/uk-european-election/vote-share-tricast-betting0 -
-
Oh I dunno....she was on Marr this morning supporting Scottish separation...Quincel said:
Natalie Bennett's approach to politics seems not to do any publicity stunts. Or any publicity. Or any politics.kle4 said:How are the Greens doing this time around anyway? I only ever hear about them during the kind of stunts that are the only way they get coverage.
Cheered me up no end....
0 -
bolloxed by 4quits like David Willets who studied PPE at Oxford. Why do we fund these useless degrees ?Charles said:
I reckon it's not splitting hairs, but a pretty fundamental point, which people should really understand because it underlies all voting.malcolmg said:
Charles, you can split hairs , but it is free to the student, which is not the case in England. Carlotta's petty carping that Scotland should provide free education to English students whilst England charges Scottish students £9K a year is pathetic.Charles said:
Correction: it's not free. It's just paid for by someone else.malcolmg said:
Careful you will burst Carlotta's bubble, she thinks paying £9K a year is fair and hates the dastardly SNP for providing it for free.old_labour said:Regarding student fees, England looks like the odd one out in the British Isles and Europe not only because they are levied, but also because they are so high.
If those other countries had indigenous papers like the Mail, Telegraph and Express, they would screaming hysterically about 'English scroungers' invading their countries to take advantage of cheap/free higher education.
As Old labour stated , England is out of line with most European countries.
But the university education funding in England is bolloxed up. Too many people do useless courses - I'd rather see them charged more, with STEM students charged less and the whole thing funded to make it needs blind0 -
Can't you still get 2/5 on UKIP beating the Tories at Ladbrokes? Seems like better odds for basically the same bet.isam said:With the current EU polling as it is I cant see much wrong with backing
UKIP-Lab-Con 11/8
Lab-UKIP-Con 6/4
Works out a 2/9 Short
Havent done the maths but I am sure that must be value based on Evs, Evs, 10s, 250s
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/uk-european-election/vote-share-tricast-betting0 -
0
-
What's odd is that the minor parties haven't benefitted more from the coalition. I think that this is a good sign for our democracy in that the minor parties are in much the same position whether it seems their views may be taken into account or not, but I'm not sure.
All of this is a gradual game-changer, but an important one. I'm interested to see how Ed finally succumbs to the inevitable euro poll.
In all of this there is a significant and long-lasting opportunity for the Tories. If they can catch the mood on Europe.
0 -
That's 2/7 NowQuincel said:
Can't you still get 2/5 on UKIP beating the Tories at Ladbrokes? Seems like better odds for basically the same bet.isam said:With the current EU polling as it is I cant see much wrong with backing
UKIP-Lab-Con 11/8
Lab-UKIP-Con 6/4
Works out a 2/9 Short
Havent done the maths but I am sure that must be value based on Evs, Evs, 10s, 250s
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/uk-european-election/vote-share-tricast-betting
But yeah I think you are right
Might bring your £25 with me to DDs Friday.. weighed in surely?!0 -
PPE like Geography has no unifying intellectual principles, consisting only of the casual culling of bits from other fields, which if the PPE or geography undergraduate were forced to study as a whole, they would run a mile from. In any event, "politics/political science" is no academic subject at all. The sooner PPE and Geography are purged from the universities the better. They resemble the adulterate, sophistical and barbarous form of scholasticism which was rightly abolished by Cromwell in the 1530s.Alanbrooke said:bolloxed by 4quits like David Willets who studied PPE at Oxford. Why do we fund these useless degrees ?
0 -
To answer OGH on the thread theme: I guess that a greater percentage of voters for the minor parties are consolidating in UKIP.0
-
Time to study isn't useless. I benefitted enormously from my time at university, and it wasn't really even about having time to study - merely to grow up. A degree course with content, and wisdom imparted along the way, is really worth the time and money.Alanbrooke said:Why do we fund these useless degrees ?
I do worry though that some Universities seem to have entirely disregarded any concept of standards. I interviewed a candidate recently who was doing a Masters in maths at a lesser London institute and he was below what used to be O level standard. Doubly horrid therefore are all these people that study meaningless things to low standards.
I'd like to suggest that the heads of the institutions where standards are low should be shot, but I'll do so anyway. Unfortunately they are almost universally the daftest people on the planet, so my censure won't reach them.
So..we arrive at a question - why are the stupid people lording it over our educational establishments? We all know it's that way.. It's impossible that my little boy's history teacher (for example) knows anything like as much history as I do. His maths teacher won't have the first clue, The English department will be failed actors, with a turn of phrase, but little else..
Really good teachers are needed - let them teach 100 at a time. 1 percent of great is worth 33% of rubbish every day.
0 -
Mr Omnium I was throwing a bit of troll bait for Charles who dismisses other degrees having studied PPE at Oxford. I suspect that's where he developed a taste for instant coffee.Omnium said:
Time to study isn't useless. I benefitted enormously from my time at university, and it wasn't really even about having time to study - merely to grow up. A degree course with content, and wisdom imparted along the way, is really worth the time and money.Alanbrooke said:Why do we fund these useless degrees ?
I do worry though that some Universities seem to have entirely disregarded any concept of standards. I interviewed a candidate recently who was doing a Masters in maths at a lesser London institute and he was below what used to be O level standard. Doubly horrid therefore are all these people that study meaningless things to low standards.
I'd like to suggest that the heads of the institutions where standards are low should be shot, but I'll do so anyway. Unfortunately they are almost universally the daftest people on the planet, so my censure won't reach them.
So..we arrive at a question - why are the stupid people lording it over our educational establishments? We all know it's that way.. It's impossible that my little boy's history teacher (for example) knows anything like as much history as I do. His maths teacher won't have the first clue, The English department will be failed actors, with a turn of phrase, but little else..
Really good teachers are needed - let them teach 100 at a time. 1 percent of great is worth 33% of rubbish every day.
But in reality Willettts has created a huge mess and is dumping his incompetence on future generations. PB righties will wail and shout at the labour's NHS computer fiasco but are trappist monks on the problem developing under their noses. Cowardice.0 -
As a matter of interest, which changes by Willettts concern you the most?Alanbrooke said:
Mr Omnium I was throwing a bit of troll bait for Charles who dismisses other degrees having studied PPE at Oxford. I suspect that's where he developed a taste for instant coffee.Omnium said:
Time to study isn't useless. I benefitted enormously from my time at university, and it wasn't really even about having time to study - merely to grow up. A degree course with content, and wisdom imparted along the way, is really worth the time and money.Alanbrooke said:Why do we fund these useless degrees ?
I do worry though that some Universities seem to have entirely disregarded any concept of standards. I interviewed a candidate recently who was doing a Masters in maths at a lesser London institute and he was below what used to be O level standard. Doubly horrid therefore are all these people that study meaningless things to low standards.
I'd like to suggest that the heads of the institutions where standards are low should be shot, but I'll do so anyway. Unfortunately they are almost universally the daftest people on the planet, so my censure won't reach them.
So..we arrive at a question - why are the stupid people lording it over our educational establishments? We all know it's that way.. It's impossible that my little boy's history teacher (for example) knows anything like as much history as I do. His maths teacher won't have the first clue, The English department will be failed actors, with a turn of phrase, but little else..
Really good teachers are needed - let them teach 100 at a time. 1 percent of great is worth 33% of rubbish every day.
But in reality Willettts has created a huge mess and is dumping his incompetence on future generations. PB righties will wail and shout at the labour's NHS computer fiasco but are trappist monks on the problem developing under their noses. Cowardice.0 -
I'd say it's not quite over yet, only one poll albeit a good one. I'd be happy to repay by bank transfer in you win if that was easier for you though.isam said:
That's 2/7 NowQuincel said:
Can't you still get 2/5 on UKIP beating the Tories at Ladbrokes? Seems like better odds for basically the same bet.isam said:With the current EU polling as it is I cant see much wrong with backing
UKIP-Lab-Con 11/8
Lab-UKIP-Con 6/4
Works out a 2/9 Short
Havent done the maths but I am sure that must be value based on Evs, Evs, 10s, 250s
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/uk-european-election/vote-share-tricast-betting
But yeah I think you are right
Might bring your £25 with me to DDs Friday.. weighed in surely?!0 -
Quality of teaching is the secret of Finnish education, regularly scored as best in the world.
Teaching in the UK is not a prestige profession any more, if it ever was.Omnium said:
Time to study isn't useless. I benefitted enormously from my time at university, and it wasn't really even about having time to study - merely to grow up. A degree course with content, and wisdom imparted along the way, is really worth the time and money.Alanbrooke said:Why do we fund these useless degrees ?
I do worry though that some Universities seem to have entirely disregarded any concept of standards. I interviewed a candidate recently who was doing a Masters in maths at a lesser London institute and he was below what used to be O level standard. Doubly horrid therefore are all these people that study meaningless things to low standards.
I'd like to suggest that the heads of the institutions where standards are low should be shot, but I'll do so anyway. Unfortunately they are almost universally the daftest people on the planet, so my censure won't reach them.
So..we arrive at a question - why are the stupid people lording it over our educational establishments? We all know it's that way.. It's impossible that my little boy's history teacher (for example) knows anything like as much history as I do. His maths teacher won't have the first clue, The English department will be failed actors, with a turn of phrase, but little else..
Really good teachers are needed - let them teach 100 at a time. 1 percent of great is worth 33% of rubbish every day.0 -
I wouldn't risk anything on UKIP topping the poll. The spoiler party created by ex-UKIP deputy leader, Mike Natrass, is going to eat into the purple vote across all nine English regions.isam said:With the current EU polling as it is I cant see much wrong with backing
UKIP-Lab-Con 11/8
Lab-UKIP-Con 6/4
Works out a 2/9 Short
Havent done the maths but I am sure that must be value based on Evs, Evs, 10s, 250s
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/uk-european-election/vote-share-tricast-betting
0 -
Uni fees at £9k. We are now approaching the point where the taxpayer will pay more for degrees "funded" through loans than for fees paid direct. And there's tens of billions that will need to be written off. the whole policy was just plain daft.JosiasJessop said:
As a matter of interest, which changes by Willettts concern you the most?Alanbrooke said:
Mr Omnium I was throwing a bit of troll bait for Charles who dismisses other degrees having studied PPE at Oxford. I suspect that's where he developed a taste for instant coffee.Omnium said:
Time to study isn't useless. I benefitted enormously from my time at university, and it wasn't really even about having time to study - merely to grow up. A degree course with content, and wisdom imparted along the way, is really worth the time and money.Alanbrooke said:Why do we fund these useless degrees ?
I do worry though that some Universities seem to have entirely disregarded any concept of standards. I interviewed a candidate recently who was doing a Masters in maths at a lesser London institute and he was below what used to be O level standard. Doubly horrid therefore are all these people that study meaningless things to low standards.
I'd like to suggest that the heads of the institutions where standards are low should be shot, but I'll do so anyway. Unfortunately they are almost universally the daftest people on the planet, so my censure won't reach them.
So..we arrive at a question - why are the stupid people lording it over our educational establishments? We all know it's that way.. It's impossible that my little boy's history teacher (for example) knows anything like as much history as I do. His maths teacher won't have the first clue, The English department will be failed actors, with a turn of phrase, but little else..
Really good teachers are needed - let them teach 100 at a time. 1 percent of great is worth 33% of rubbish every day.
But in reality Willettts has created a huge mess and is dumping his incompetence on future generations. PB righties will wail and shout at the labour's NHS computer fiasco but are trappist monks on the problem developing under their noses. Cowardice.0 -
To be honest I only put the price up to see if ICM lovers would put their money where their mouths were.. Unfortunately for me I now do money if UKIP do well!Quincel said:
I'd say it's not quite over yet, only one poll albeit a good one. I'd be happy to repay by bank transfer in you win if that was easier for you though.isam said:
That's 2/7 NowQuincel said:
Can't you still get 2/5 on UKIP beating the Tories at Ladbrokes? Seems like better odds for basically the same bet.isam said:With the current EU polling as it is I cant see much wrong with backing
UKIP-Lab-Con 11/8
Lab-UKIP-Con 6/4
Works out a 2/9 Short
Havent done the maths but I am sure that must be value based on Evs, Evs, 10s, 250s
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/uk-european-election/vote-share-tricast-betting
But yeah I think you are right
Might bring your £25 with me to DDs Friday.. weighed in surely?!0 -
I think that you are right. I cannot see the BNP getting more than a couple of percent at most.
Much as I think UKIP a folly, it is an improvement on the BNP.MikeK said:To answer OGH on the thread theme: I guess that a greater percentage of voters for the minor parties are consolidating in UKIP.
0 -
I didn't write this piece. The author was CorporealMikeK said:To answer OGH on the thread theme: I guess that a greater percentage of voters for the minor parties are consolidating in UKIP.
0 -
Ukip on course to come first in the Euro elections
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/04/ukip-on-course-to-come-first-in-the-euro-elections/0 -
I have some sympathy with that view, but it is a long-term plan - things may improve.Alanbrooke said:
Uni fees at £9k. We are now approaching the point where the taxpayer will pay more for degrees "funded" through loans than for fees paid direct. And there's tens of billions that will need to be written off. the whole policy was just plain daft.JosiasJessop said:
As a matter of interest, which changes by Willettts concern you the most?Alanbrooke said:
Mr Omnium I was throwing a bit of troll bait for Charles who dismisses other degrees having studied PPE at Oxford. I suspect that's where he developed a taste for instant coffee.Omnium said:
Time to study isn't useless. I benefitted enormously from my time at university, and it wasn't really even about having time to study - merely to grow up. A degree course with content, and wisdom imparted along the way, is really worth the time and money.Alanbrooke said:Why do we fund these useless degrees ?
I do worry though that some Universities seem to have entirely disregarded any concept of standards. I interviewed a candidate recently who was doing a Masters in maths at a lesser London institute and he was below what used to be O level standard. Doubly horrid therefore are all these people that study meaningless things to low standards.
I'd like to suggest that the heads of the institutions where standards are low should be shot, but I'll do so anyway. Unfortunately they are almost universally the daftest people on the planet, so my censure won't reach them.
So..we arrive at a question - why are the stupid people lording it over our educational establishments? We all know it's that way.. It's impossible that my little boy's history teacher (for example) knows anything like as much history as I do. His maths teacher won't have the first clue, The English department will be failed actors, with a turn of phrase, but little else..
Really good teachers are needed - let them teach 100 at a time. 1 percent of great is worth 33% of rubbish every day.
But in reality Willettts has created a huge mess and is dumping his incompetence on future generations. PB righties will wail and shout at the labour's NHS computer fiasco but are trappist monks on the problem developing under their noses. Cowardice.
But the other answers are also troublesome: paying for uni fees out of general taxation, or reducing the number of people going to uni. I'd actually favour the latter, as long as there were very good vocational courses to take their place.0 -
"PB righties will wail and shout at the labour's NHS computer fiasco but are trappist monks on the problem developing under their noses. Cowardice."
Oi! Though not a Conservative I think I am of the right, certainly on this site, and resent that remark. Regrettably until some government has the balls to stand up and re-state the purpose of universities and so repudiate this nonsense of 50% of youngsters going to one then the fees fiasco is going to continue.
Maybe there is wriggle room for a future government to pay all fees, and maybe even give a maintenance grant, to students on STEM courses, but that will have to be balanced by students on medieval-pottery and flower arranging type courses from fourth rate former polies being charged full fees and getting bugger all in the way of help or deferrals of repayment. Imagine the screams that would cause. Need a brave PM to implement it, so it won't happen under Cameron or any of his cronies.0 -
Frankly I'd slash the aid budget and pay for our own kids to be educated. As you say there are choices to be made and none of them easy, but we appear to have chosen the worst of the bunch, and regrettably all the coverage I've seen to date says the problem will get worse not better.JosiasJessop said:
I have some sympathy with that view, but it is a long-term plan - things may improve.Alanbrooke said:
Uni fees at £9k. We are now approaching the point where the taxpayer will pay more for degrees "funded" through loans than for fees paid direct. And there's tens of billions that will need to be written off. the whole policy was just plain daft.JosiasJessop said:
As a matter of interest, which changes by Willettts concern you the most?Alanbrooke said:
Mr Omnium I was throwing a bit of troll bait for Charles who dismisses other degrees having studied PPE at Oxford. I suspect that's where he developed a taste for instant coffee.Omnium said:
Time to study isn't useless. I benefitted enormously from my time at university, and it wasn't really even about having time to study - merely to grow up. A degree course with content, and wisdom imparted along the way, is really worth the time and money.Alanbrooke said:Why do we fund these useless degrees ?
I do worry though that some Universities seem to have entirely disregarded any concept of standards. I interviewed a candidate recently who was doing a Masters in maths at a lesser London institute and he was below what used to be O level standard. Doubly horrid therefore are all these people that study meaningless things to low standards.
I'd like to suggest that the heads of the institutions where standards are low should be shot, but I'll do so anyway. Unfortunately they are almost universally the daftest people on the planet, so my censure won't reach them.
a turn of phrase, but little else..
Really good teachers are needed - let them teach 100 at a time. 1 percent of great is worth 33% of rubbish every day.
But in reality Willettts has created a huge mess and is dumping his incompetence on future generations. PB righties will wail and shout at the labour's NHS computer fiasco but are trappist monks on the problem developing under their noses. Cowardice.
But the other answers are also troublesome: paying for uni fees out of general taxation, or reducing the number of people going to uni. I'd actually favour the latter, as long as there were very good vocational courses to take their place.0 -
It's not PPE per se, but the fact that no one in our political class was brave enough to stand up to the vested interests in the universities and the harsh realities that a university education will not generate an economic return for 50% of the population.Alanbrooke said:
bolloxed by 4quits like David Willets who studied PPE at Oxford. Why do we fund these useless degrees ?Charles said:
But the university education funding in England is bolloxed up. Too many people do useless courses - I'd rather see them charged more, with STEM students charged less and the whole thing funded to make it needs blind
The ideal situation would be independent universities, sent out with a generous dowry from the government so they could start needs blind. The government could then choose to subsidise those courses where there are positive externalities for society as a whole. And that probably doesn't include PPE ;-)0 -
Roger Helmer @RogerHelmerMEP 39m
Some people say they've had problems finding UKIP's Energy Policy on-line. Sorry about that. It's here: http://is.gd/dsE33x0 -
Mr Llama I do of course apologise you are l'exception sussexoise as they say in your part of France. However I do note that Willetts boat rocking is a bit of a lonely activity on PB, even the lefties don't say much. I suspect Lab stay shtum since they intoduced fees and degrees for all, the LDs hang their heads in shame since they welched it and the Tories stick their head in the sand and deny there's a problem.HurstLlama said:"PB righties will wail and shout at the labour's NHS computer fiasco but are trappist monks on the problem developing under their noses. Cowardice."
Oi! Though not a Conservative I think I am of the right, certainly on this site, and resent that remark. Regrettably until some government has the balls to stand up and re-state the purpose of universities and so repudiate this nonsense of 50% of youngsters going to one then the fees fiasco is going to continue.
Maybe there is wriggle room for a future government to pay all fees, and maybe even give a maintenance grant, to students on STEM courses, but that will have to be balanced by students on medieval-pottery and flower arranging type courses from fourth rate former polies being charged full fees and getting bugger all in the way of help or deferrals of repayment. Imagine the screams that would cause. Need a brave PM to implement it, so it won't happen under Cameron or any of his cronies.0 -
I pretty much agree with that, but would also like to see industry, commerce and even government departments more involved with the courses taught. it's too easy for courses to become stale.HurstLlama said:"PB righties will wail and shout at the labour's NHS computer fiasco but are trappist monks on the problem developing under their noses. Cowardice."
Oi! Though not a Conservative I think I am of the right, certainly on this site, and resent that remark. Regrettably until some government has the balls to stand up and re-state the purpose of universities and so repudiate this nonsense of 50% of youngsters going to one then the fees fiasco is going to continue.
Maybe there is wriggle room for a future government to pay all fees, and maybe even give a maintenance grant, to students on STEM courses, but that will have to be balanced by students on medieval-pottery and flower arranging type courses from fourth rate former polies being charged full fees and getting bugger all in the way of help or deferrals of repayment. Imagine the screams that would cause. Need a brave PM to implement it, so it won't happen under Cameron or any of his cronies.
Talking of which Mr Llama, you asked me a question the other day about this and I responded. Did you see it, and if so, what were you thoughts?
But my basic premise is aiming for 50% of people with a uni degree is stupid. Especially when the 50% target appears to have been plucked out of New Labour's backside with no basis for it.0 -
I think that's part of it, but as Mr JJ points out we need to ditch the snobbery that vocational courses are somehow not up to much; as a country we need more hands on courses like the old polytehcnics used to do rather than worry so much about "academia" per se. More attention also needs to be given to making crossing between vocational and academia easier and perhaps even desirable.Charles said:
It's not PPE per se, but the fact that no one in our political class was brave enough to stand up to the vested interests in the universities and the harsh realities that a university education will not generate an economic return for 50% of the population.Alanbrooke said:
bolloxed by 4quits like David Willets who studied PPE at Oxford. Why do we fund these useless degrees ?Charles said:
But the university education funding in England is bolloxed up. Too many people do useless courses - I'd rather see them charged more, with STEM students charged less and the whole thing funded to make it needs blind
The ideal situation would be independent universities, sent out with a generous dowry from the government so they could start needs blind. The government could then choose to subsidise those courses where there are positive externalities for society as a whole. And that probably doesn't include PPE ;-)0 -
I'm a fan of the foreign aid budget in general (although some of the details are wrong); I'd prefer to tailor courses - whether at uni or college - better towards jobs.Alanbrooke said:
Frankly I'd slash the aid budget and pay for our own kids to be educated. As you say there are choices to be made and none of them easy, but we appear to have chosen the worst of the bunch, and regrettably all the coverage I've seen to date says the problem will get worse not better.JosiasJessop said:
I have some sympathy with that view, but it is a long-term plan - things may improve.Alanbrooke said:
Uni fees at £9k. We are now approaching the point where the taxpayer will pay more for degrees "funded" through loans than for fees paid direct. And there's tens of billions that will need to be written off. the whole policy was just plain daft.JosiasJessop said:
As a matter of interest, which changes by Willettts concern you the most?Alanbrooke said:
Mr Omnium I was throwing a bit of troll bait for Charles who dismisses other degrees having studied PPE at Oxford. I suspect that's where he developed a taste for instant coffee.
But in reality Willettts has created a huge mess and is dumping his incompetence on future generations. PB righties will wail and shout at the labour's NHS computer fiasco but are trappist monks on the problem developing under their noses. Cowardice.
But the other answers are also troublesome: paying for uni fees out of general taxation, or reducing the number of people going to uni. I'd actually favour the latter, as long as there were very good vocational courses to take their place.
Here's a possibly stupid idea: pay lecturers or departments a little extra money when the graduates have been paying income tax for three years in the field they were taught in, or a related one.0 -
@foxinsoxuk
The problem is we don't optimise for student outcomes in our education system. Take, for example, this school in Hampstead:
http://www.ofsted.gov.uk/inspection-reports/find-inspection-report/provider/ELS/131978
Throughout the report it mentions just how well the children are achieving:
"The school fosters in pupils a positive attitude and love for learning, enthusiasm, perseverance and the ability to work and learn well. "
"Pupils’ behaviour and personal development are outstanding."
"Achievement is high in writing with many older pupils writing at length, especially in connection with their research projects."
"Pupils’ numeracy skills are very well developed."
"Pupils also learn well, for example, in developing their investigative learning skills, including simple science experimentation."
""They also develop a wider range of skills, for example, by taking part in end-of-term drama productions."
"Pupils gain very rich cultural and social experiences by supporting local and national charities."
Surely an outstanding school then? No, it just got a "good", because it's a Montessori school, and doesn't adopt the latest educational trends of the Department for Education, preferring the tried-and-tested Montessori method. This means it gets interpreted as not having "plans for improvement" as they're not planning to change things, only to change them back in a few years. The teachers actually work to direct children to learn themselves, rather than using the latest whiteboard dogma that you need to get "outstanding" in teacher quality.
Meanwhile other schools that really put on a show for Ofsted and do exactly what they say get "outstandings" despite the children doing worse. It's crazy.0 -
I've just skimmed that, and it's similar to one I've seen before. There's some good stuff in there (mainly because I agree with it), and some less good stuff (because I don't). But it's a good document to aid discussion, even if some bits, like thorium, are a bit out there.isam said:Roger Helmer @RogerHelmerMEP 39m
Some people say they've had problems finding UKIP's Energy Policy on-line. Sorry about that. It's here: http://is.gd/dsE33x
Personally, I'd like them to go on a bit more about the various aspects of security of supply, but that's just me ...0 -
To quote the report itself for any interested parties:Socrates said:@foxinsoxuk
The problem is we don't optimise for student outcomes in our education system. Take, for example, this school in Hampstead:
http://www.ofsted.gov.uk/inspection-reports/find-inspection-report/provider/ELS/131978
Surely an outstanding school then? No, it just got a "good", because it's a Montessori school, and doesn't adopt the latest educational trends of the Department for Education, preferring the tried-and-tested Montessori method. This means it gets interpreted as not having "plans for improvement" as they're not planning to change things, only to change them back in a few years. The teachers actually work to direct children to learn themselves, rather than using the latest whiteboard dogma that you need to get "outstanding" in teacher quality.
Meanwhile other schools that really put on a show for Ofsted and do exactly what they say get "outstandings" despite the children doing worse. It's crazy.
It is not yet outstanding because
Leaders know most of the school’s strengths
but there is limited self-review and there are
few plans for bringing about further
improvements, for example to teaching and
learning, and consequently to pupils’ rates of
progress.
What does the school need to do to improve further?
Improve the quality of leadership and management by:
introducing a better system so that leaders can evaluate more accurately the school's
strengths and weaknesses in specific areas and plan more precisely for further
improvements in teaching and learning and other aspects of the school's work.
The school must meet the following independent school standards.
Ensure that there is suitable accommodation for the medical examination and treatment of
pupils (paragraph 23B(1)(a)).
Provide accommodation for the short-term care of sick or injured pupils, which includes a
washing facility and is near to a suitable toilet facility (paragraph 23B(1)(b)).
0 -
No doubt you will agree that the SNP do the socially decent AND - amazingly - the fiscally responsible thing as regards tuition fees. Anyone would think the SNP's critics had something against lads o'pairts (Anglice: working-class types who dared to improve themselves through education). Not to mention English would-be students.CarlottaVance said:
As one of the wealthiest countries, Scotland is a net financial contributor to the EU and will remain so as an independent member.MonikerDiCanio said:
The sight of Salmond grovelling at the feet of Brussels bigwigs should put them on 25%;malcolmg said:
Utter bollocks, anybody that thinks UKIP will get 18% ( or within a mile of it ) in Scotland is barkingisam said:McUKIP
Robert Kimbell @RedHotSquirrel 21s
YouGov/Sunday Times #Scotland poll for #EP2014 - all degrees of certainty to vote:
29% SNP
25% LAB
18% #UKIP 18%
10% LDEM
8% GRN
8% CON
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-27178205
Bye-bye rebate......
We have more top universities, per head, than any other member of the EU
And we will not be welcoming English, Welsh and Northern Irish students free of charge.
Pray explain something that baffles me. The Unionists keep telling us that Scotland will be out of the EU and EWNI in it - or is it the other way round, I keep getting confused ... and yet this supposed flood of English students will only happen when both are in the EU ...
0 -
According to the Sunday Times, Nick Clegg "wants to be deputy PM for 10 years, and would force a second general election next year to achieve his aim."0
-
Say in a region only the top 4 parties get seats. The lower the total votes for the "others" the higher the votes the fourth party requires to get elected.
So lower other votes is problematic for the Lib Dems. Ideally they would want to get voters moved from the top 3 parties to others given a fixed vote percentage for the LDs. This would reduce the ratios for C/LD etc which is the tactical solution given the voting system for the euros.0 -
Interesting to look at those Newark figures again IMO:
2013 county council elections, with 2010 result in brackets:
Con 44% (54%)
Lab 21% (22%)
UKIP 14% (4%)
LD 12% (20%)
Ind 8% (-)
Labour's vote was down on the general election, which makes it look like they wouldn't have much chance of winning the seat in a by-election.0 -
The argument is not that Scotland would never be in the EU, it is that it would not automatically become a new member upon independence.Carnyx said:
No doubt you will agree that the SNP do the socially decent AND - amazingly - the fiscally responsible thing as regards tuition fees. Anyone would think the SNP's critics had something against lads o'pairts (Anglice: working-class types who dared to improve themselves through education). Not to mention English would-be students.CarlottaVance said:
As one of the wealthiest countries, Scotland is a net financial contributor to the EU and will remain so as an independent member.MonikerDiCanio said:
The sight of Salmond grovelling at the feet of Brussels bigwigs should put them on 25%;malcolmg said:
Utter bollocks, anybody that thinks UKIP will get 18% ( or within a mile of it ) in Scotland is barkingisam said:McUKIP
Robert Kimbell @RedHotSquirrel 21s
YouGov/Sunday Times #Scotland poll for #EP2014 - all degrees of certainty to vote:
29% SNP
25% LAB
18% #UKIP 18%
10% LDEM
8% GRN
8% CON
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-27178205
Bye-bye rebate......
We have more top universities, per head, than any other member of the EU
And we will not be welcoming English, Welsh and Northern Irish students free of charge.
Pray explain something that baffles me. The Unionists keep telling us that Scotland will be out of the EU and EWNI in it - or is it the other way round, I keep getting confused ... and yet this supposed flood of English students will only happen when both are in the EU ...0 -
DPM is a non job, better a proper cabinet role in a coalition.AndyJS said:
According to the Sunday Times, Nick Clegg "wants to be deputy PM for 10 years, and would force a second general election next year to achieve his aim."
0 -
@corporeal
The comments you quoted to reach outstanding was because the leadership isn't bringing in Ofsted's advice on evaluating the school to see if they're doing Ofsted's favourite approaches. And then they don't have a plan to adopt those favourite approaches. i.e. they're focused on getting the kids to do well rather than opting in to New Labour's old command from the centre approach to education. Even though the kids are performing extremely well in all areas. Any sensible planner knows a good evaluation system should judge on outcomes, not inputs. But the educational establishment hates people doing things in a different way.0 -
Whether one likes it or not, the chances are actually quite high that Nick Clegg will be deciding who becomes/stays PM in May 2015. This is true even if they lose 10% of their vote and 20 MPs. A predicted result of something like Lab 295, Con 295, LD 35 seems very plausible at the moment.0
-
Mr Farage challenged Mr Salmond to a debate on the EU, and he'll be visiting Scotland again "in the first week of May".Edin_Rokz said:Then again the UKIP organisation in Scotland is still in chaos. Haven't heard of any action or pamphleting any where.
Certainly can't see Farage showing his face in Scotland in the near future after the fun of his visit to Edinburgh
http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/nigel-farage-challenges-salmond-to-tv-debate-1-3376352
The most recent EU Parliament poll for Scotland put UKIP on 10%.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2014_(United_Kingdom)#Scottish_polls
0 -
Good evening, everyone.
The European Election will be pretty interesting. I'd guess it'll remain a UKIP-Labour fight for the win, with the Conservatives in a distinct third and the Lib Dems playing the role of Monty Python's Black Knight.
Here's a question: if UKIP win, and Labour are second, will the media portray this as worse for Miliband, or Cameron?0 -
UKIP got 24% in a London only EU Parliament poll on 9 April, so that sub-sample looks ok.isam said:
Yeah 185 peopleTheuniondivvie said:
Presume that's a sub sample?isam said:McUKIP
Robert Kimbell @RedHotSquirrel 21s
YouGov/Sunday Times #Scotland poll for #EP2014 - all degrees of certainty to vote:
29% SNP
25% LAB
18% #UKIP 18%
10% LDEM
8% GRN
8% CON
UKIP scored 23% in London, 35% rest of South, 32% Midlands & Wales, 35% in the North and 18% in Scotland
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2014_(United_Kingdom)#London_polls
0 -
It's possible most of UKIP's gains at the Euro election won't come from the three main parties.
2009:
BNP: 6.3%
Eng Dem: 1.9%
No2EU: 1.0%
Jury Team: 0.5%
UK First: 0.5%
Libertas: 0.5%
Total: 10.7%
If UKIP took 90% of these votes (which is plausible IMO) they'd already be on 26% without having made any inroads into Con, Lab, LD support.0 -
The kids perform well in a rubbish system. It's awful. Teachers on average are rubbish. They'd admit it too.Socrates said:@corporeal
The comments you quoted to reach outstanding was because the leadership isn't bringing in Ofsted's advice on evaluating the school to see if they're doing Ofsted's favourite approaches. And then they don't have a plan to adopt those favourite approaches. i.e. they're focused on getting the kids to do well rather than opting in to New Labour's old command from the centre approach to education. Even though the kids are performing extremely well in all areas. Any sensible planner knows a good evaluation system should judge on outcomes, not inputs. But the educational establishment hates people doing things in a different way.
When you start to say pupils can't fail, and then teachers can't be bad then you drift into this.
0 -
And yet in comparative terms of purchasing power, Finnish teachers are paid less than English teachers and less than the EU average. It also takes them much longer to reach the top salary scale than teachers in England.foxinsoxuk said:Quality of teaching is the secret of Finnish education, regularly scored as best in the world.
Teaching in the UK is not a prestige profession any more, if it ever was.Omnium said:
Time to study isn't useless. I benefitted enormously from my time at university, and it wasn't really even about having time to study - merely to grow up. A degree course with content, and wisdom imparted along the way, is really worth the time and money.Alanbrooke said:Why do we fund these useless degrees ?
I do worry though that some Universities seem to have entirely disregarded any concept of standards. I interviewed a candidate recently who was doing a Masters in maths at a lesser London institute and he was below what used to be O level standard. Doubly horrid therefore are all these people that study meaningless things to low standards.
I'd like to suggest that the heads of the institutions where standards are low should be shot, but I'll do so anyway. Unfortunately they are almost universally the daftest people on the planet, so my censure won't reach them.
So..we arrive at a question - why are the stupid people lording it over our educational establishments? We all know it's that way.. It's impossible that my little boy's history teacher (for example) knows anything like as much history as I do. His maths teacher won't have the first clue, The English department will be failed actors, with a turn of phrase, but little else..
Really good teachers are needed - let them teach 100 at a time. 1 percent of great is worth 33% of rubbish every day.
http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/education/teachers-salaries_teachsal-table-en
This is not me looking for an excuse to attack teachers pay, in fact personally I would like to see good teachers rewarded with substantially more pay and have their financial rewards match an increased prestige. I was just mildly surprised that pay is apparently not the defining factor behind Finnish success.0 -
I came across a 2012 article earlier that put the cost to the LDs of losing 1 councillor at £800 pa. Since 2010 they've lost 1,200 > £1 million pa.AndyJS said:According to the Sunday Times, Nick Clegg "wants to be deputy PM for 10 years, and would force a second general election next year to achieve his aim."
Since Mr Clegg took over the LDs have been overspending every year. Unless they've done some radical cost cutting since publishing their last accounts, their post 2015 GE finances are going to look grim.
http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/find-information-by-subject/political-parties-campaigning-and-donations/political-parties-annual-accounts/2012#LD
0 -
@Morris_Dancer
Only UKIP can beat Labour. UKIP need to make this case to Conservative voters. If Europhile Labour come top, it will be taken by the European elite that the UK is actually supportive of EU integration after all.0 -
Mr. Socrates, I suspect UKIP will top the poll.
It then becomes interesting as to which of the two 'big' parties get more flak. Probably Labour. Cameron can at least point to being in power and getting a low risk kick from the electorate.
What's Miliband's excuse?
But, if Labour top the poll all the pressure will be on the blues (if they come third, obviously. If UKIP are third that'd be terrible for them).0 -
I would suggest the success of Finnish schools would be due to the schools being full of Finns.
The biggest determinant of a school's success is the quality of students but accepting that scientific fact would mean overthrowing the post 60s Marxist consensus and we can't have that.0 -
@Morris_Dancer
In an ideal world, the most eurosceptic party, UKIP, would come first and the most europhile party, the Lib Dems would lose all their seats. Then the "losers" would not be any particular party, it would be a failure for the EU overall. That way it might shake them out of their malaise that their project is unravelling.0 -
-
By the way, Finnish education is not quite as good as you are claiming apparently. They have indeed been top of the PISA ratings 3 times in the last 15 years but in 2013 they dropped to 12th place in Maths behind Estonia.foxinsoxuk said:Quality of teaching is the secret of Finnish education, regularly scored as best in the world.
Teaching in the UK is not a prestige profession any more, if it ever was.Omnium said:
Time to study isn't useless. I benefitted enormously from my time at university, and it wasn't really even about having time to study - merely to grow up. A degree course with content, and wisdom imparted along the way, is really worth the time and money.Alanbrooke said:Why do we fund these useless degrees ?
I do worry though that some Universities seem to have entirely disregarded any concept of standards. I interviewed a candidate recently who was doing a Masters in maths at a lesser London institute and he was below what used to be O level standard. Doubly horrid therefore are all these people that study meaningless things to low standards.
I'd like to suggest that the heads of the institutions where standards are low should be shot, but I'll do so anyway. Unfortunately they are almost universally the daftest people on the planet, so my censure won't reach them.
So..we arrive at a question - why are the stupid people lording it over our educational establishments? We all know it's that way.. It's impossible that my little boy's history teacher (for example) knows anything like as much history as I do. His maths teacher won't have the first clue, The English department will be failed actors, with a turn of phrase, but little else..
Really good teachers are needed - let them teach 100 at a time. 1 percent of great is worth 33% of rubbish every day.0 -
I see your point but totally disagree. UKIP winning would be the main story, then the obvious people for flack are whomever comes third. It's difficult to spin second being worse than third, even if an argument exists given the context. By contrast "Government humiliated in third place" is an easy story to write and explain to the readers. Sure beats "Opposition beats government but does poorly".Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Socrates, I suspect UKIP will top the poll.
It then becomes interesting as to which of the two 'big' parties get more flak. Probably Labour. Cameron can at least point to being in power and getting a low risk kick from the electorate.
What's Miliband's excuse?
But, if Labour top the poll all the pressure will be on the blues (if they come third, obviously. If UKIP are third that'd be terrible for them).0 -
Mr. Socrates, in an ideal world I would have been woken this morning by Jennifer Morrison and Olivia Wilde pillow-fighting over which one of them gets to sleep with me.
In a moderately improved world the electoral result you indicate would occur. Every chance the sceptical party will come first and the EU-philes will finish last.0 -
I'm not sure Labour would take more flak. They might get some more from certain parts of the blogosphere, but banging on about Europe is seen as a Tory thing, and the Tories will have been pushed into third place, which will be more humiliating than it was for Labour even. In addition, although UKIP are trying to target Labour areas, they are still perceived in the narrative as prinipally a Tory problem (because the Tories will be hit first and worst by their rise), so the flak for them coming top will be focused on the original source of the UKIp surge - disaffected Tories angry with Cameron.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Socrates, I suspect UKIP will top the poll.
It then becomes interesting as to which of the two 'big' parties get more flak. Probably Labour. Cameron can at least point to being in power and getting a low risk kick from the electorate.
What's Miliband's excuse?
But, if Labour top the poll all the pressure will be on the blues (if they come third, obviously. If UKIP are third that'd be terrible for them).
As such, although many in Labour will be concerned at UKIP topping the poll, they can make the usual noises about protest party and need to reform the EU, while not being all that concerned because if UKIP can retain half or even a third of what they get in the Euros at the GE, then Ed M is PM, and they would pay any future price of dealing with that surge in UKIP support in order to achieve that end.
Quincel puts it very well, in that 'government humiliated in third' is a lot easier to write and explain than 'You should really think the people coming second have done worse than those in third', even if technically an argument can be made.
They'll both probably be hoping for a LD wipeout, as that will distract from the need to explain anything about their own performance. 'It's not our fault or our EU policies, not really - they took a slight hit, but it was because the LDs collapsed to nothing'.
0 -
Mr. Quincel, Miliband failing to win could be contrasted with the Conservatives achieving that in the corresponding period last Parliament, and the European Elections are both 'home turf' for UKIP *and* a low-risk way to kick the big parties.0
-
No, if UKIP retain a third, they will likely be on approx 9%, which on current polling trend would see the Tories marginally ahead and Cameron as PM. They need about 13% to make it mission impossible.kle4 said:
I'm not sure Labour would take more flak. They might get some more from certain parts of the blogosphere, but banging on about Europe is seen as a Tory thing, and the Tories will have been pushed into third place, which will be more humiliating than it was for Labour even. In addition, although UKIP are trying to target Labour areas, they are still perceived in the narrative as prinipally a Tory problem (because the Tories will be hit first and worst by their rise), so the flak for them coming top will be focused on the original source of the UKIp surge - disaffected Tories angry with Cameron.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Socrates, I suspect UKIP will top the poll.
It then becomes interesting as to which of the two 'big' parties get more flak. Probably Labour. Cameron can at least point to being in power and getting a low risk kick from the electorate.
What's Miliband's excuse?
But, if Labour top the poll all the pressure will be on the blues (if they come third, obviously. If UKIP are third that'd be terrible for them).
As such, although many in Labour will be concerned at UKIP topping the poll, they can make the usual noises about protest party and need to reform the EU, while not being all that concerned because if UKIP can retain half or even a third of what they get in the Euros at the GE, then Ed M is PM, and they would pay any future price of dealing with that surge in UKIP support in order to achieve that end.
0
