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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the betting markets it’s now a 74% chance that a general el
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the betting markets it’s now a 74% chance that a general election will happen BEFORE a UK exit from the EU
There are too many examples in political betting when favourites have not won to make the assertion that betting can be predictive. What historical trends do show, as in the above betdata.io chart, is how those ready to risk their cash on the Betfair exchange are seeing things at a given moment.
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So was this Jeremy Hunt or Philip Hammond?
That's not to say it won't succeed, if Brexiteers are the target audience.
I wouldn't have thought that Hammond would be shy of making a similar criticism publicly, but a current member of Johnson's cabinet would be more circumspect.
A better question, do they have the guts to do so? (No, they don't)
Even if the proposed magic technology did exist to do away with any need for customs inspections at or near the border, levying customs tariffs between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland would breach the commitment to support the all-island economy and North-South cooperation.
The death cultists are those who would block and frustrate that vote at every turn. The polls point to the enduring damage this is now doing to trust in politicians and political institutions. THAT is a much bigger long term problem than Brexit.
Typhoon swinging a bit further northeast - earlier concerns about Ireland Samoa seem to be easing - but typhoon now appears to be crossing Yokohama at same time as England France game. Nil nil draw on the cards.....
Parliament both DOES, and DOES NOT, have confidence in Her Majesty's Government.
Once triggered, the backstop runs until alternative arrangements are agreed to replace it.
Nothing has changed - except the rhetoric for domestic consumption.
But on the other hand he'll have campaigned on a No Deal, so I suppose he will.
'Sad' as someone might say.
I think GE before Brexit is a stone cold certainty. 74% is therefore great value.
A Deal is out and both No Deal and Ref2/Remain need a GE mandate and thus a GE.
Boris could resign, get HMQ to send for Corbyn, he accepts and becomes PM without need to priorly demonstrate confidence, sends letter, gets HMQ to deliver his QS and sets off to deliver his Brexit.
Boris brings him down in his own time.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/08/dominic-cummings-memo-brexit-talks-election/
The government said if we voted to leave we would leave the Single Market.
The remain campaign said if we voted to leave we would leave the Single Market
The leave campaigns said if we voted to leave we would leave the Single Market.
The Labour Party, the SNP, the then PM, the current PM, the then Chancellor, the Leader of the Opposition all said if we voted to leave we would leave the Single Market.
The only thing everyone in power agreed on was that leave meant leaving the Single Market. The idea of a soft Brexit only came about after the result came in.
A series of significant political shocks, including immigration, the financial crash and referendums on Scottish independence and Brexit have shattered longstanding party ties."
(£)
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/brexit-has-shattered-party-politics-in-britain-study-finds-nwtwd3b2h
I can honestly say though, that even as a political nerd who followed the referendum closely, I never recall it being put forward as a possibility by Leave advocates. Anyone that can provide evidence of widespread discussion is welcome to disabuse me.
REVOKE - Leavers accuse Remainers of treachery, betrayal and cancelling democracy.
REFERENDUM - Leavers accuse Remainers of treachery, betrayal and cancelling democracy. And we have a bitter referendum campaign. And if Leave (in whatever way is on the ballot paper) wins we still have to negotiate the future trade agreement.
DEAL - Leavers accuse Remainers of treachery, betrayal and cancelling democracy. We still have to negotiate the future trade agreement.
NO DEAL - Leavers accuse the EU of treachery, betrayal and attempting to subvert British democracy. Remainers accuse Leavers of something horrid. We suffer economic damage. We still have to agree a preliminary deal with the EU to cover reciprocal citizen's rights, financial obligations and the Irish border before we can even start to negotiate the future trade agreement.
Revoke looks like the least hassle.
Trying to sum up the post 2016 national discussion.
If A, B, C and D say "vote for option 2 and you get X and it will be a disaster" and the voters think "I want X" and vote for option 2 then absolutely A, B, C and D can't say afterwards that X wasn't discussed and has no mandate. Everyone agreed leaving the EU meant leaving the Single Market as much as idiots still share that stupid discredited video.
If people voted go on this basis then they were either informed and understood that no deal was a real possibility and believed that that was better than staying in; or they were thick as pigshit and are genuinely surprised and distressed that we are very likely about to leave with no deal; or they paid insufficient attention to the possibility that we could leave with no deal and don't care one way or another.
Problem is, May failed to understand the difference between a general election win and a referendum win, and so omitted to embrace consensus, and so the loons took charge.
Interesting to note that the projected number of Liberal seats has dropped by about 10 despite their share remaining the same as a couple of days ago. Maybe the model has been updated since then.
https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/
Whatever happens, I think the reintroduction if these kind of tropes to mainstream political discussion after years of them being kept to the fringes is something we’re all going to regret.
What was on the ballot paper?
The new session starts next week but could be over within a few days for a general election... So we get the longest ever session of Parliament followed by the shortest.
UK politics totally crazy since 2014!
3rd June 2016: “Even if our friends in France and Italy decide to cut off their noses to spite their faces…it will better than the rotten deal we have now.”
8th June 2016 : “no deal is better than the rotten deal that we’ve got at the moment.”
So, I make today his last reasonable day for resign rather than send. Assuming reasonable at least has bearing on him when it suits.
We see it here with once reasonable people posting such trash comments as ….. ………………. Insert your own example, as I don't want to honour any of them by repeating the detritus they post from the seclusion of their computer / phone in an effort to offend and seek attention for 5 milliseconds.
The EU are way more unreasonable and intransigent than Leave voters imagined, so the obvious conclusion is we should Remain after all?
"I went to my boss and said that i wasn't happy in my job and was thinking of leaving the company. He did nothing, so i said i was definitely leaving. Then he increased my hours and cut my pay and said no way was i leaving...so obviously i'm staying after all"
WTF are you on about?