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SystemSystem Posts: 12,685
edited April 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Nighthawks is open

Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks.

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  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,895
    Mr. Eagles, I'm avoiding that Honest Trailer just in case it shows any of season 4.

    Also, I dislike this 'showing emotions' nonsense. Clegg's showing his continental side again. A stiff upper lip paves the way to victory (as a side note, Pomp & Circumstance is playing as I write this).
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,715
    #6 is serious MOE business!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,792
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, I'm avoiding that Honest Trailer just in case it shows any of season 4.

    Also, I dislike this 'showing emotions' nonsense. Clegg's showing his continental side again. A stiff upper lip paves the way to victory (as a side note, Pomp & Circumstance is playing as I write this).

    There's no spoilers if you've watched Seasons 1 to 3
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    FPT:
    dyedwoolie said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sheffield Hallam: Lab 5/1.

    Solihull: LDs 2/1.

    Good price for the LDs in Solihull, ultra marginal but trending away from Tory and Lib Dems awfully sticky there
    Solihull is probably the most nailed-on Tory gain from the Lib Dems. From my understanding, Lorely Burt is entirely dependent on tactical Labour voters -- the 8% that Labour got there in 2010 is a VAST understatement of their support judging by how they've progressed in other affluent suburbs around Birmingham in recent years (see Sutton Coldfield, where Labour in 2010 were only 3% below their 1997 level).

    With Burt being one of the Lib Dems' leading Coalition cheerleaders, I think we could expect a 10-15% swing between Lib Dems and Labour in that seat, which would allow the Tories to comfortably take it even if their vote declines.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,792
    RobD said:

    #6 is serious MOE business!

    I'm spotting a nascent Gayers for Kippers movement emerging.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,895
    Mr. Eagles, cheers for that info.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 15,315
    Evening all :)

    The New Statesman piece on the LDs doesn't tell us anything we didn't already know. The LD vote has traditionally been the softest and the one requiring the most effort to get to the polling station.

    The Party has always concentrated its efforts in a relatively few seats and it's no different now apart from the stark truth that in hundreds of seats, the vote will collapse and in many cases dramatically but these will be seats which won't matter whereas UKIP will pile up votes in seats (often beating the LDs) but with little or nothing to show in terms of MPs.

    The NS suggests 30-35 MPs, Shadsy's odds has the Party favourite in 34 so we can all see where this is going. That said, the London Borough elections in May will be informative for all parties.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    edited April 2014
    Danny565 said:

    FPT:

    dyedwoolie said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sheffield Hallam: Lab 5/1.

    Solihull: LDs 2/1.

    Good price for the LDs in Solihull, ultra marginal but trending away from Tory and Lib Dems awfully sticky there
    Solihull is probably the most nailed-on Tory gain from the Lib Dems. From my understanding, Lorely Burt is entirely dependent on tactical Labour voters -- the 8% that Labour got there in 2010 is a VAST understatement of their support judging by how they've progressed in other affluent suburbs around Birmingham in recent years (see Sutton Coldfield, where Labour in 2010 were only 3% below their 1997 level).

    With Burt being one of the Lib Dems' leading Coalition cheerleaders, I think we could expect a 10-15% swing between Lib Dems and Labour in that seat, which would allow the Tories to comfortably take it even if their vote declines.
    I agree Solihull should be a certain Conservative gain , mind you I said the same thing in 2010 and was wrong . Where you are incorrect are in your musings on the Labour vote in the constituency and BC as a whole . Since the GE bith Lib Dems and Labour have fallen back with votes and seats aided by defections going to the Greens . The key question in 2015 is whether Burt can retain those who are voting Green in the local elections . It is unlikely that they will vote Conservative .
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited April 2014
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    The New Statesman piece on the LDs doesn't tell us anything we didn't already know. The LD vote has traditionally been the softest and the one requiring the most effort to get to the polling station.

    The Party has always concentrated its efforts in a relatively few seats and it's no different now apart from the stark truth that in hundreds of seats, the vote will collapse and in many cases dramatically but these will be seats which won't matter whereas UKIP will pile up votes in seats (often beating the LDs) but with little or nothing to show in terms of MPs.

    The NS suggests 30-35 MPs, Shadsy's odds has the Party favourite in 34 so we can all see where this is going. That said, the London Borough elections in May will be informative for all parties.

    If the Conservatives are still polling around 35% in May, surely the LDs are facing another 2011 style wipeout?
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Jack W should read No. 13.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Danny565 said:

    FPT:

    dyedwoolie said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sheffield Hallam: Lab 5/1.

    Solihull: LDs 2/1.

    Good price for the LDs in Solihull, ultra marginal but trending away from Tory and Lib Dems awfully sticky there
    Solihull is probably the most nailed-on Tory gain from the Lib Dems. From my understanding, Lorely Burt is entirely dependent on tactical Labour voters -- the 8% that Labour got there in 2010 is a VAST understatement of their support judging by how they've progressed in other affluent suburbs around Birmingham in recent years (see Sutton Coldfield, where Labour in 2010 were only 3% below their 1997 level).

    With Burt being one of the Lib Dems' leading Coalition cheerleaders, I think we could expect a 10-15% swing between Lib Dems and Labour in that seat, which would allow the Tories to comfortably take it even if their vote declines.
    Wishful thinking there.The evidence from both published and private polling is that LAB supporters aren't going to throw their votes away and let the Tories back in and it will be the same in most of the LD defences against the Tories where the incumbent is standing again.





  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,792
    edited April 2014
    I've added this to the nighthawks link 28

    Send anyone but Michael Gove, say local Tories

    The Education Secretary's rivalry with Boris Johnson took a new twist when grassroots activists declared who they wanted for a morale-boosting visit

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10738083/Send-anyone-but-Michael-Gove-say-local-Tories.html
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,338
    edited April 2014
    @Morris_Dancer - if you can avoid Benson's excruciating words for The Coronation Ode, whilst listening out for that belter of tune at the end from Elgar, you soon work out who had a rare talent.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,792
    MarkSenior said:


    Danny565 said:

    FPT:

    dyedwoolie said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sheffield Hallam: Lab 5/1.

    Solihull: LDs 2/1.

    Good price for the LDs in Solihull, ultra marginal but trending away from Tory and Lib Dems awfully sticky there
    Solihull is probably the most nailed-on Tory gain from the Lib Dems. From my understanding, Lorely Burt is entirely dependent on tactical Labour voters -- the 8% that Labour got there in 2010 is a VAST understatement of their support judging by how they've progressed in other affluent suburbs around Birmingham in recent years (see Sutton Coldfield, where Labour in 2010 were only 3% below their 1997 level).

    With Burt being one of the Lib Dems' leading Coalition cheerleaders, I think we could expect a 10-15% swing between Lib Dems and Labour in that seat, which would allow the Tories to comfortably take it even if their vote declines.
    I agree Solihull should be a certain Conservative gain , mind you I said the same thing in 2010 and was wrong . Where you are incorrect are in your musings on the Labour vote in the constituency and BC as a whole . Since the GE bith Lib Dems and Labour have fallen back with votes and seats aided by defections going to the Greens . The key question in 2015 is whether Burt can retain those who are voting Green in the local elections . It is unlikely that they will vote Conservative .
    I still it is more likely that the Lib Dems will gain Oxford West & Abingdon and Camborne than the Tories take Solihull.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,792
    Diego's goal for Atletico against Barca, what a screamer.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,895
    Dr. Spyn, whilst we're discussing such things (not a forte of mine), I think this is the best recent rendition of Rule Britannia at the Proms:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FoHgSLp19YE

    Personally, I think it suits a chap's voice better than a lady's.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 15,315
    anotherDave said:

    If the Conservatives are still polling around 35% in May, surely the LDs are facing another 2011 style wipeout?

    I don't know what will happen this May but as we've seen in past years, it's highly possible that the LDs will do poorly in many areas but much better in traditional areas of strength - in London, it's the first local elections since GE 2010 and in many ways the first opportunity for London voters to pass judgement on the Coalition.

    As for the GE, I don't know and neither do you. I do think vote shares won't tell the whole story any more than they did last time. A big fall in the LD vote share may not translate into a similar fall in seat numbers while the Tories could poll the same as 2010 yet lose seats to a resurgent Labour Party.

    On the other hand, one or two on here seem convinced a Conservative landslide is a certainty and let's hope they have availed themselves of the odds on offer.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Neil said:

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Neil said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    a group that the Yes campaign is targetting strongly and who won't be featuring much in current polls

    Why wont they be featuring much in current polls?
    Perhaps I'm wrong, but I'm making the assumption that people who aren't usually politically engaged enough to vote, aren't going to be arsed to sign up to polling panels.

    Shhh...

    They'll find out soon enough. ;)
    You think these kind of polls are systematically biased for this reason, Stuart?
    Yes.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,437
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MarkSenior said:


    Danny565 said:

    FPT:

    dyedwoolie said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sheffield Hallam: Lab 5/1.

    Solihull: LDs 2/1.

    Good price for the LDs in Solihull, ultra marginal but trending away from Tory and Lib Dems awfully sticky there
    Solihull is probably the most nailed-on Tory gain from the Lib Dems. From my understanding, Lorely Burt is entirely dependent on tactical Labour voters -- the 8% that Labour got there in 2010 is a VAST understatement of their support judging by how they've progressed in other affluent suburbs around Birmingham in recent years (see Sutton Coldfield, where Labour in 2010 were only 3% below their 1997 level).

    With Burt being one of the Lib Dems' leading Coalition cheerleaders, I think we could expect a 10-15% swing between Lib Dems and Labour in that seat, which would allow the Tories to comfortably take it even if their vote declines.
    I agree Solihull should be a certain Conservative gain , mind you I said the same thing in 2010 and was wrong . Where you are incorrect are in your musings on the Labour vote in the constituency and BC as a whole . Since the GE bith Lib Dems and Labour have fallen back with votes and seats aided by defections going to the Greens . The key question in 2015 is whether Burt can retain those who are voting Green in the local elections . It is unlikely that they will vote Conservative .
    I still it is more likely that the Lib Dems will gain Oxford West & Abingdon and Camborne than the Tories take Solihull.
    Oxwab could go either way. Camborne will not go yellow.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,792
    rcs1000 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MarkSenior said:


    Danny565 said:

    FPT:

    dyedwoolie said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sheffield Hallam: Lab 5/1.

    Solihull: LDs 2/1.

    Good price for the LDs in Solihull, ultra marginal but trending away from Tory and Lib Dems awfully sticky there
    Solihull is probably the most nailed-on Tory gain from the Lib Dems. From my understanding, Lorely Burt is entirely dependent on tactical Labour voters -- the 8% that Labour got there in 2010 is a VAST understatement of their support judging by how they've progressed in other affluent suburbs around Birmingham in recent years (see Sutton Coldfield, where Labour in 2010 were only 3% below their 1997 level).

    With Burt being one of the Lib Dems' leading Coalition cheerleaders, I think we could expect a 10-15% swing between Lib Dems and Labour in that seat, which would allow the Tories to comfortably take it even if their vote declines.
    I agree Solihull should be a certain Conservative gain , mind you I said the same thing in 2010 and was wrong . Where you are incorrect are in your musings on the Labour vote in the constituency and BC as a whole . Since the GE bith Lib Dems and Labour have fallen back with votes and seats aided by defections going to the Greens . The key question in 2015 is whether Burt can retain those who are voting Green in the local elections . It is unlikely that they will vote Conservative .
    I still it is more likely that the Lib Dems will gain Oxford West & Abingdon and Camborne than the Tories take Solihull.
    Oxwab could go either way. Camborne will not go yellow.
    Camborne is somewhere I can see doing UKIP very well.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,895
    Hmm. What sounds do horses make when they're aggressive? There's whinnying, whickering and neighing, of course... not sure any of them fit.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Hmm. What sounds do horses make when they're aggressive? There's whinnying, whickering and neighing, of course... not sure any of them fit.

    Snorting?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,584
    Not quite sure how much I should say about article 21 but with considerable inside knowledge on the project I will say that is one of the most misleading articles I have ever read and so far from the truth about what actually caused delays on Kashgan as to be utterly worthless.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,895
    Mr. Antifrank, hmm. I think that may do. Cheers.
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Thank goodness the concept of "April Fool" ended at midday or we might have got a poll tonight from the pogo pollsters showing the LibDems in the lead!!
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MarkSenior said:


    Danny565 said:

    FPT:

    dyedwoolie said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sheffield Hallam: Lab 5/1.

    Solihull: LDs 2/1.

    Good price for the LDs in Solihull, ultra marginal but trending away from Tory and Lib Dems awfully sticky there
    Solihull is probably the most nailed-on Tory gain from the Lib Dems. From my understanding, Lorely Burt is entirely dependent on tactical Labour voters -- the 8% that Labour got there in 2010 is a VAST understatement of their support judging by how they've progressed in other affluent suburbs around Birmingham in recent years (see Sutton Coldfield, where Labour in 2010 were only 3% below their 1997 level).

    With Burt being one of the Lib Dems' leading Coalition cheerleaders, I think we could expect a 10-15% swing between Lib Dems and Labour in that seat, which would allow the Tories to comfortably take it even if their vote declines.
    I agree Solihull should be a certain Conservative gain , mind you I said the same thing in 2010 and was wrong . Where you are incorrect are in your musings on the Labour vote in the constituency and BC as a whole . Since the GE bith Lib Dems and Labour have fallen back with votes and seats aided by defections going to the Greens . The key question in 2015 is whether Burt can retain those who are voting Green in the local elections . It is unlikely that they will vote Conservative .
    I still it is more likely that the Lib Dems will gain Oxford West & Abingdon and Camborne than the Tories take Solihull.
    Oxwab could go either way. Camborne will not go yellow.
    Camborne is somewhere I can see doing UKIP very well.
    I was in Camborne at the weekend and drove past George Eustice office, can't see the Lib Dems taking it but they are an obtuse bunch down that way, if UKIP campaign hard they could do well.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    Easterross said:

    Thank goodness the concept of "April Fool" ended at midday or we might have got a poll tonight from the pogo pollsters showing the LibDems in the lead!!

    April fools work best when they're just on the edge of credible.
  • TwistedFireStopperTwistedFireStopper Posts: 2,538
    edited April 2014
    The comments under the Stephen Kinnock article are pretty much universally lambasting Labour for parachuting (well, more like a special forces HALO drop with a full squirrel suit to get from Denmark!) him in.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,895
    As it's quiet, I thought some vague musing on Bahrain might be of interest.

    I made a mental note of the approximate fuel usage in Malaysia, which was a new graphic we got to see. Williams were most efficient, then Mercedes/Force India with Ferrari and Red Bull last (Ricciardo was the worst, I think, of the top 10). Bahrain is reputed to be hard on fuel. As predicted by me, it'll also be a circuit (some pundit or other who knows what he's talking about agreed with this) where Mercedes will benefit from it being mostly about straights.

    So, power is the order of the day (night, actually, first ever night race, I think) and aerodynamics matter less. This is good news for Williams, McLaren and Force India, and bad news for Red Bull. Ferrari reckon, according to Ted Kravitz, that they'll be better on fuel than Red Bull.

    Oh, and Ricciardo has a 10 place grid penalty. That's because he retired in Malaysia before he served the stop-and-go penalty for premature release (ahem).

    Williams could be most interesting to watch, for a few reasons. As qualifying is likely to be dry, it'll be intriguing to see if they can have a better time of it and, if they do, whether that'll put a podium in their sights. It'll also be entertaining, perhaps, to watch how the drivers get along (or not).
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,895
    Idly perusing the Bahrain markets on Ladbrokes. Mercedes are 8/11 for both cars to have a podium finish. Odds are too short for me (always a risk of mechanical woe) but I must admit that's tempting...

    Betting without Hamilton/Rosberg could be interesting too. Have to see how practice looks, though.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    Labour 4 point lead, Basil is furious.

    http://www.kuhnecakes.com/blog/http://www.kuhnecakes.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/red-squirrel-300x240.jpg
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,792
    Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics 7s

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead up one to four points: CON 33%, LAB 37%, LD 10%, UKIP 12%
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Can we have another Budget!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,792
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Can we have another Budget!

    Patience, the 2015 General Election campaign will be launched by the 2015 budget.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    After the workload the 2014 one has caused me, I'll miss election night in 2015 if he pulls any more savings/pension stunts then.... the NS&I bond being launched in January 2015 is probably just the first of some subtle bungs to savers in the months up to then!
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Budget bounce does seem to be fading
  • isamisam Posts: 42,632
    Lead story on News at Ten is the govt cock up of the a Royal Mail sale
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    By the way... can I just say for old time sake.

    Hoorar for IHT!
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    isam said:

    Lead story on News at Ten is the govt cock up of the a Royal Mail sale

    I thought it went splendidly, we made over £500 thanks.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    antifrank said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Hmm. What sounds do horses make when they're aggressive? There's whinnying, whickering and neighing, of course... not sure any of them fit.

    Snorting?
    And chomping, chaffing and pawing
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    After the workload the 2014 one has caused me, I'll miss election night in 2015 if he pulls any more savings/pension stunts then.... the NS&I bond being launched in January 2015 is probably just the first of some subtle bungs to savers in the months up to then!

    Subtle?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,792
    Charles said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    After the workload the 2014 one has caused me, I'll miss election night in 2015 if he pulls any more savings/pension stunts then.... the NS&I bond being launched in January 2015 is probably just the first of some subtle bungs to savers in the months up to then!

    Subtle?
    As subtle as my subtle pop music references.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited April 2014
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    isam said:

    Lead story on News at Ten is the govt cock up of the a Royal Mail sale

    I thought it went splendidly, we made over £500 thanks.
    Nice one. Did you remember to say 'Thank you' to Vince Cable?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,285
    After today's news any chance of St Vince losing Twickenham in 2015? With the LDs ratings already more than halved since 2010, after today's news I can't imagine many local Labour voters willing to lend their votes to keep Cable in. The Tory candidate must be a good outside bet.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,285
    Britain's youngest granddad at 27
    http://www.parentdish.co.uk/2014/04/01/convicted-killer-to-be-britains-youngest-grandad-aged-27/?icid=maing-grid7|uk|dl5|sec1_lnk2&pLid=254126
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,792
    HYUFD said:

    After today's news any chance of St Vince losing Twickenham in 2015? With the LDs ratings already more than halved since 2010, after today's news I can't imagine many local Labour voters willing to lend their votes to keep Cable in. The Tory candidate must be a good outside bet.

    12,000 majority, and 6/1 with Ladbrokes for the Tories to take it.

    I can't see it myself.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    BobaFett said:

    Budget bounce does seem to be fading

    Shhh.....it's one of those polls.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,789
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    The New Statesman piece on the LDs doesn't tell us anything we didn't already know. The LD vote has traditionally been the softest and the one requiring the most effort to get to the polling station.

    The Party has always concentrated its efforts in a relatively few seats and it's no different now apart from the stark truth that in hundreds of seats, the vote will collapse and in many cases dramatically but these will be seats which won't matter whereas UKIP will pile up votes in seats (often beating the LDs) but with little or nothing to show in terms of MPs.

    Certainly seems to the case in my patch. There is a Green candidate and what everyone assumes will be the UKIP candidate, but the LibDems haven't yet started selecting and feel there's no special hurry. The candidate who stood the last 3 times had a go at the Chesterfield selection, but after not getting that has called it a day as far as Parliament goes. In his last newspaper column, he said phlegmatically that people should vote LibDem at council level anyway, whatever they did at GE level...


  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    @Isam

    Yup. Royal cock up that one. "So lads we want to reduce the deficit. I've got an idea, let's sell quid coins for 50p."

    "Nice one."
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Exactly 400 days until Election Day (at midnight)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,285
    TSE Might be worth a punt, after all it was Tory before 1997, and with the fall in the LD voteshare and Cable's botched sale of a privatisation not even Thatcher dared and his raising of student fees, left-wingers who may have tactically voted for him in the past have little incentive to do so again
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,784
    Stuart_Dickson said:

    Jack W should read No. 13.

    And No.7. Although the opinion of the National Audit Office won't change his view that Royal Mail privatisation was a triumph for the taxpayer.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Never mind Vince, Fallon needs to munch his slice of poo pie for his part in the Royal Mail fiasco
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,338
    @Morris_Dancer Benson's nonsense with Elgar's belter of a tune. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3QysIbmSZB8
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    BobaFett said:

    @Isam

    Yup. Royal cock up that one. "So lads we want to reduce the deficit. I've got an idea, let's sell quid coins for 50p."

    "Nice one."

    Still, it's not a patch on the losses from Labour's gold sale in 1999.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Paxman: don't visit Guinea.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    BobaFett said:

    Exactly 400 days until Election Day (at midnight)

    Was it by the end of May that all the crossover predictions bit the dust, I cannot remember. The Tramadol must be effecting my memory.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,487
    PB goes full squirrel on the YouGov poll. Discussing polling not as interesting now is it?
    Blues with red faces tonight,.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,632
    @MrJones

    Clock the front page of the Standard tonight?

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/10-crime-gangs-are-targeting-children-in-london-for-sex-warns-top-met-officer-9227958.html
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I thought Solihull would be Tory in 2005 and 2010. So maybe it's time to put money on Lorely Burt.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    Freggles said:

    PB goes full squirrel on the YouGov poll. Discussing polling not as interesting now is it?
    Blues with red faces tonight,.

    First rule of PB.....

    Good poll for Tories, loads of posts and subsection it to an inch of it's life. Not good poll for Tories.....Look Squirrel!
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    @Compou
    compouter2 said:

    BobaFett said:

    Exactly 400 days until Election Day (at midnight)

    Was it by the end of May that all the crossover predictions bit the dust, I cannot remember. The Tramadol must be effecting my memory.
    Rod has May 1 - he's a respected tipster so if wrong that's interesting.
    Fitalass is May 5.
    Avery predicted 25 December 2013.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Freggles said:

    PB goes full squirrel on the YouGov poll. Discussing polling not as interesting now is it?
    Blues with red faces tonight,.

    I have said before it's their sheer confidence that I find interesting. It's remarkable.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    isam said:

    @MrJones

    Clock the front page of the Standard tonight?

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/10-crime-gangs-are-targeting-children-in-london-for-sex-warns-top-met-officer-9227958.html

    That article's strangely lacking in detail.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,419
    Try as I might, considering we spend about £1 billion a week servicing interest on the national debt, I can't get too excited about Vince's lost £750 million down the back of the sofa.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    TheWatcher said:

    BobaFett said:

    @Isam

    Yup. Royal cock up that one. "So lads we want to reduce the deficit. I've got an idea, let's sell quid coins for 50p."

    "Nice one."

    Still, it's not a patch on the losses from Labour's gold sale in 1999.
    Maybe not, but you are in government and that was 15 years ago.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,789
    I think that tactically-minded Labour voters in Twickenham will forgive Vince over the PO fiasco - it's a cockup rather than an ideological thing.

    Labour's vote has been in the 37-40 range with YG throughout - it's the small Tory bounce that is apparently subsiding. Yesterday's YG was remarkable for the small "others" share - this one looks more typical. All MOE Brownian movement anyway.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    BobaFett said:

    @Compou

    compouter2 said:

    BobaFett said:

    Exactly 400 days until Election Day (at midnight)

    Was it by the end of May that all the crossover predictions bit the dust, I cannot remember. The Tramadol must be effecting my memory.
    Rod has May 1 - he's a respected tipster so if wrong that's interesting.
    Fitalass is May 5.
    Avery predicted 25 December 2013.
    Avery crossover predictions are junk stock. He had four goes at it last year and failed miserably on all of them. Will keep an eye out for the other two.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,632
    edited April 2014
    TheWatcher said:

    isam said:

    @MrJones

    Clock the front page of the Standard tonight?

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/10-crime-gangs-are-targeting-children-in-london-for-sex-warns-top-met-officer-9227958.html

    That article's strangely lacking in detail.
    Yes I thought that. Why would that be?

    "Stephen Lawrence, an innocent south London boy tragically killed by a group of other south Londoners"

    A new style of reporting.



  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,487
    Surely as we approach the Euros we can expect a Ukip bump. It might be more like World Cup time we get crossover. Perhaps on the back of some photos of Dave watching the matches in the pub?
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    BobaFett said:

    TheWatcher said:

    BobaFett said:

    @Isam

    Yup. Royal cock up that one. "So lads we want to reduce the deficit. I've got an idea, let's sell quid coins for 50p."

    "Nice one."

    Still, it's not a patch on the losses from Labour's gold sale in 1999.
    Maybe not, but you are in government and that was 15 years ago.
    Last time I looked in the mirror I was neither a Tory nor Lib Dem politician.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I wonder if Farage might resign if UKIP come third in the Euros?
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    Freggles said:

    Surely as we approach the Euros we can expect a Ukip bump. It might be more like World Cup time we get crossover. Perhaps on the back of some photos of Dave watching the matches in the pub?

    Nah, Dave will cast his usual sporting curse. "Cameron sends England team Good Luck message"...followed by "England go out on pens again".

    Rugby teams, football teams, tennis players, cyclists, swimmers, divers......

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/tennis/wimbledon/10153890/Its-that-man-again...-Cameron-curse-strikes-on-tearful-Robson.html
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    compouter2 said:

    Freggles said:

    Surely as we approach the Euros we can expect a Ukip bump. It might be more like World Cup time we get crossover. Perhaps on the back of some photos of Dave watching the matches in the pub?

    Nah, Dave will cast his usual sporting curse. "Cameron sends England team Good Luck message"...followed by "England go out on pens again".

    Rugby teams, football teams, tennis players, cyclists, swimmers, divers......

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/tennis/wimbledon/10153890/Its-that-man-again...-Cameron-curse-strikes-on-tearful-Robson.html
    Yeah, as if England aren't going to be early departees from the competition. Mind you, they're still not as shite as the Scots at football.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Link 10 once again conflates the terms debt and deficit. Groan.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited April 2014
    Ladbrokes have a market for this: 6/1 that Cameron will be seen in a pub during an England world cup game.
    Freggles said:

    Surely as we approach the Euros we can expect a Ukip bump. It might be more like World Cup time we get crossover. Perhaps on the back of some photos of Dave watching the matches in the pub?

  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    Get the feeling lately Paxo's given up, pretty much. Leaving it to John Harris to question/challenge the Ukip woman (didn't get name).
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,784
    Now that there's a full selection, the best value options for the Lib Dems to lose seats are in Argyll and Gordon, both to the SNP. In Scotland it's clear enough that the SNP will rise as the LDs fall and there's no question of the Conservatives taking either seat if the Scottish ABT tactical voters desert the LDs. The SNP got 50% in Argyll in 2011 and in Gordon the incumbent LD is standing down. The SNP should be odds on in both and they're far from that. 7/4 in Argyll and 11/8 in Gordon (in from 2/1) currently.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,784
    For a really nailed on Con gain from the LDs Mid Dorset (1/3) is better value than Solihull (1/2) simply because another long standing LD incumbent is standing down in the former.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    I think that you have to factor uncertainty as to the Indyref. After the 79 referendum failure the SNP vote collapsed. It may do so again, and a Yes vote the opposite.
    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    Now that there's a full selection, the best value options for the Lib Dems to lose seats are in Argyll and Gordon, both to the SNP. In Scotland it's clear enough that the SNP will rise as the LDs fall and there's no question of the Conservatives taking either seat if the Scottish ABT tactical voters desert the LDs. The SNP got 50% in Argyll in 2011 and in Gordon the incumbent LD is standing down. The SNP should be odds on in both and they're far from that. 7/4 in Argyll and 11/8 in Gordon (in from 2/1) currently.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,285
    Len McCluskey, head of UNITE, threatens to support a 'workers' party' to the left of Labour
    http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/95663/the_independent_wednesday_2nd_april_2014.html
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,285
    NP But he pushed it through because he was so hellbent on privitisation at all costs. It was not just RM either, he also pushed higher fees, left-wingers in Twickenham may well stick with Labour, or even the Greens
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,285
    49% now back Obamacare, 48% opposed
    http://dish.andrewsullivan.com/2014/04/01/a-middle-schoolers-idea-to-save-the-federal-government-136-million-ctd/
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,285
    Roy Jenkins second class mind comment on Blair, for which he sent an apology
    http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2014/04/01/roy-jenkins-second-class-mind/
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited April 2014
    With RM there are two sorts of people: those who did not buy, who do not feel a loss, and those who bought who certainly made a gain.

    While there are more of the former, their motivation would be minimal, but for the few that gained it may be a clincher.

    Selling at a loss did not do Maggie much harm in the eighties...
    HYUFD said:

    NP But he pushed it through because he was so hellbent on privitisation at all costs. It was not just RM either, he also pushed higher fees, left-wingers in Twickenham may well stick with Labour, or even the Greens

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,285
    Fox Any gainers will vote Tory, if you are pro privatisation and made money from the shares you will vote Tory not for Vince
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    I expect so too, but I think the gainers are more likely to be influenced than the rest of us.
    HYUFD said:

    Fox Any gainers will vote Tory, if you are pro privatisation and made money from the shares you will vote Tory not for Vince

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,285
    Maybe, but Vince will take all the pain from those angry with him, while getting the support of virtually none of those who gained
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,032
    I do wonder what will happen after the next GE. Good odds of another hung parliament. If the Lib Dems lose up to half their MPs will Clegg be fatally weakened? There could well be outrage at him if in such a scenario he goes around acting as kingmaker and appears deaf to what the public think of him.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    So, have closed the boozer and am reading through the cafe comments. Tories quiet because of a 'bad' poll? Not really. What appears to be happening is a contraction in the overall lead average with the Laboyr vote edging down and the Tories sitting at about their 'core' level 97/05 plus a percent or two. That's with labour nowhere near their same period polling, the Lib Dems down 10 and a 'new force' showing 12 or so, that historically they have failed to convert at a GE.

    The questions are.... Where are Libs losing votes? Where are Labour gaining? Are they gaining in seats they held in 2005, because today's polling tend to that seat level for them? Or are they gaining from tactical Lub Dems abhorred at Torydem realities?

    And what happens from here? I'll get anecdotal for a moment. When I took this pub a year ago there was very little tea time drinking from tradesmen. Now, a year on, it has increased, and is continuing to do so. Now, from convos with other landlords, this is not an isolated outbreak. So who gets credit if things continue to improve for the average working tradesman? Talking to the builders, window fitters, plumbers etc 'it's starting to turn'

    And the government main party is a couple of points down a year out?

    Yeah, I'd like to see a Tory 3 point lead. But it's not like the double digits of a year ago. How quickly the commentariat adjust to the new 'facts' of 2015
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    FrankBooth said:

    I do wonder what will happen after the next GE. Good odds of another hung parliament. If the Lib Dems lose up to half their MPs will Clegg be fatally weakened? There could well be outrage at him if in such a scenario he goes around acting as kingmaker and appears deaf to what the public think of him.

    If there is another hung parliament, I think it will be a minority government rather than another coalition. Which would be much better for democracy imo.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Danny565 said:

    FrankBooth said:

    I do wonder what will happen after the next GE. Good odds of another hung parliament. If the Lib Dems lose up to half their MPs will Clegg be fatally weakened? There could well be outrage at him if in such a scenario he goes around acting as kingmaker and appears deaf to what the public think of him.

    If there is another hung parliament, I think it will be a minority government rather than another coalition. Which would be much better for democracy imo.
    If that happens, whichever of Con or Lab it is will runa one year program with a view to going back to the country for a mandate to continue
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    FrankBooth said:

    There could well be outrage at him if in such a scenario he goes around acting as kingmaker and appears deaf to what the public think of him.

    I'd be more impressed by such 'outrage' if there had been similar outrage at the electoral system depriving the Lib/LibDems of their fair share of seats for... oh, the past 90 years...
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    FrankBooth said:

    If the Lib Dems lose up to half their MPs will Clegg be fatally weakened? There could well be outrage at him if in such a scenario he goes around acting as kingmaker and appears deaf to what the public think of him.

    You have to distinguish between your feelings and feelings generally. You might be outraged but I cant see people rioting in the streets over it.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,032
    RodCrosby said:

    FrankBooth said:

    There could well be outrage at him if in such a scenario he goes around acting as kingmaker and appears deaf to what the public think of him.

    I'd be more impressed by such 'outrage' if there had been similar outrage at the electoral system depriving the Lib/LibDems of their fair share of seats for... oh, the past 90 years...
    What exactly is a fair share? A purely proportional system? I hope you're not suggesting that after a lifetime of grievance against the majority of voters, the Lib Dems are entitled to just do what the want now they may have the whip hand over the electorate.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,285
    edited April 2014
    Frank/Danny If there is another hung parliament then clearly the British people have decided they would quite like a Coalition to continue until the economy is sorted out in 2018. Clegg will therefore have a mandate to go with whichever of the Tories or Labour is the largest party, personally I think the 2015 result will produce another Tory-LD coalition, even with the LDs losing seats, I think the Tories will be largest party again, but UKIP will gain enough votes to prevent a Tory majority (even though some seep back)
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    FrankBooth said:


    What exactly is a fair share? A purely proportional system? I hope you're not suggesting that after a lifetime of grievance against the majority of voters, the Lib Dems are entitled to just do what the want now they may have the whip hand over the electorate.

    'Whip hand over the electorate'? Do me a favour. Either the electorate voted, consciously or otherwise, for a hung parliament, or the system broke down and failed to conjure a majority out of a minority. If the latter, perhaps the Greek or Italian systems would be more to your liking...

    Remember, it takes two to tango. The LibDems will never be able 'to just do what they want'.

    To do anything at all, they first need a partner...

    So, if you don't like coalition, take it up with the Tories.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Breaking: Massive 8.0 earthquake and tsunami warning near Iquiqe, Chile...
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited April 2014
    Chile earthquake upgraded to 8.3...

    Which would make it one of the top 15 (in Richter magnitude) in the past century.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Still not a single piece of wreckage recovered re. flight MH370.
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