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Ravi Ashwin might not be the first name you think of as being of particular relevance to the Brexit denouement this October. However, his dismissal of Josh Buttler in the IPL this March is an excellent example of one side playing to the rules while the other played to the conventions of the game – and who went on to lose.
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Scotland’s most controversial blogger is in talks to create a political party to fight the next Holyrood election and split the independence vote.
Stuart Campbell, writer of Wings Over Scotland, said that his party would exploit unhappiness in the Yes movement at Nicola Sturgeon’s caution over Scottish independence. Mr Campbell said that he had discussed the idea with a number of potential candidates.
“I think the SNP is a shambles at the moment,” he told The Times. “It doesn’t know what it’s doing.”
It is understood that the Wings party would aim to emulate the success of populist, anti-elite movements in the United States, the UK and elsewhere.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/wings-over-scotland-independence-blogger-stuart-campbell-plans-to-take-on-snp-fxg7z3t30
*innocent face*
So, over three days, the litttle 'un and I:
*) Went hut-dwelling at Stonehenge
*) Stayed in a luxury hotel (any hotel is 'luxury' to a 5-year old)
*) Went for dinner via a ferry and pier-train
*) Scaled Portchester Castle
*) Swum around the Mary Rose
*) Fired cannons on board HMS Warrior
*) Went mosaic hunting at Fishbourne Roman Palace
He seemed to love all of it, and we have enough arts and crafts activities out of it to last us until next summer.
And when we finally see mummy, and I asked: "What did you like best about the trip?"
Guess what he said.
Go on, guess.
I bet you cannot.
It was:
"Seeing mummy!"
It has been a wonderfully politics-free few days, just me, a five-year old and traffic on the M25. Blessed times.
Civil unrest if Boris games the variables.
The mechanism of terminating a Corbyn government, even just one for A50 extension, are in Boris's hands - he might like to make the minor parties sweat by not acting to remove Corbyn from office immediately.
The political consequences - short and long - will be key. And will hang upon how the story ends. I can see a scenario where in the short term Bozo is cheered along for his ruthless desperation by those keen to see the deed done, but in the long term as everything starts to unravel both he and his party sink to the absolute bottom of popularity and reputation.
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/08/dominic-cummings-wont-blink-over-no-deal-but-will-boris-johnson/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
I know that you want to justify your decision to quit, but I think you are being unfair to the government here
The tone of your piece is unremitting negative towards the government but when you look at the individual steps all of their actions are reasonable/justifiable (as you acknowledge)
1. They won’t (even if out of fear of the Speaker) try to prevent a VoNC. I’ve not seen anyone suggest that they will
2. They won’t resign until it is clear someone else can command a majority. That is in line with precedent. They are not going to try to hang on afterwards. My guess is that Times article was a decoy by Cummings to get the Remainers wasting time and energy on something that’s not going to happen
3. Corbyn is the most likely alternative - I agree with your assessment (and think it’s entirely logical and reasonable behaviour by Labour) but that’s not really the government’s fault
4. Not seeking an extension - Brexiting on Oct 31 is the status quo at the moment. Essentially - as you acknowledge - Remainers are complaining that the government is going to implement the law that parliament passed and not stop it (in an act that would cause great political harm). This is reinforced by the fact that the FTPA give Parliament 14 days to select a new government and - in this scenario - they will have chosen not to
All of the above are within both the rules AND the spirit / convention of our system. I’m no fan of Boris (or leaving without a deal) but I’m struggling to see what he is doing wrong on these technical issues
What we are seeing is a bunch of Remainers (not you specifically) in politics and the media thrashing about trying to make mud stick. They’ve been outplayed - there is a small window where they can do something effective to get what they want but they are wasting their time whinging about things that really don’t matter instead.
Just seen a headline about a fishing e-mail being 'accidentally' sent to the BBC. Aye. Whoops, indeed.
It's a very British coup. He and his party will suffer mightily for it but that's no consolation. The rest of us will too.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/aug/09/no-deal-brexit-negotiations-brussels
The Uk just look very attractive place to come on holiday for Euro earners. And exporters.
It’s not great for Uk boozers abroad but well - Cornwall and Scotland are available.
So now they are telling us that Brexit doesn’t mean Brexit.
But then, MPs cheated. The likes of Grieve and Soubry and Wollaston, not to mention dozens of Labour MPs, took out the sandpaper and - in full view of the umpire - tampered with the ball. Despite pledges made to voters, they demonstrated they had no intention of passing ANY form of Brexit.
And now those same cheating MPs are bitching that they are facing bodyline bowling. Well boo bloody hoo.
They could formally offer to back the deal in return for a referendum. That would entail doing something, though...
The Clown might actually like the offer. If he lost, he could pretend he's a statesman respecting democracy. If he wins, then it's another victory. And it averts no deal (I'm assuming he doesn't actually want no deal but painted himself into that corner). Would require a fig leaf from the EU but the political declaration could handle that.
What has changed is simply that the preparations for the hardest and most last-resort kind of Brexit seem to be becoming more professionalised ; bureaucratic reform is Cumming's selling point and raison d'etre. The underlying fissures within the conservative party that set this entire crisis in mention from 2016 remain, to use a choice phrase.
I’ve seen more attractive offers to the public to be honest.
Cornwall, Wales and other parts of UK are, I agree, excellent for holidays; the only downside is the weather. If for whatever reason one wants warmth and sunshine the UK isn't as good a bet as further South. Maybe in the future, given global warming, of course.
The OKC's, when we want guaranteed sunshine, can head for Thailand, where we have family, but the pound is in trouble against the baht as well as the Euro; whereas a year or so ago a pound bought 45 baht, now it only buys 37. Five years ago it was over 50!
So why not ask for one in return for backing the deal/a deal?
It remains [ahem] bizarre that pro-EU MPs have managed to back leaving, oppose any deal, are very upset that their actions have highly predictable consequences, yet haven't done anything but moan about the current state of affairs.
Maybe they're biding their time. And maybe they'll run out. And complain about that too...
I agree with David that this gives the government more control of the agenda than is being appreciated. It is frankly fairly appalling that Parliament is in recess right now and when they come back time is going to be very short. I struggle to see how Parliament requires the government to seek a further extension. I also struggle to see where the EU get the time to agree it. The only way now that Brexit can be stopped is for Parliament to pass legislation requiring the government to revoke the Article 50 notice. That seems...unlikely.
So the opposition has a choice. Do they confirm that they now want May's deal after all and that they will vote for it or do they let this government take us out on a no deal Brexit and take the blame for the consequences? Its a tough one to call.
Getting the government to pass May's deal would undoubtedly split the Tory party wide open yet again. A no deal Brexit is very unlikely to boost the Tory's popularity. Which way will Corbyn jump? I'm really not sure.
And Ashwin is a disgrace by the way.
To paraphrase BJohnsons favourite PM, it's just the end of the beginning.
The PM is the individual who can command a majority of the HoC. How they were identified is irrelevant. It could be the best juggler in the HoC if that’s what MPs wanted.
MPs voted to make leaving on October 31 law. If they are that opposed to it they have the absolute right to sack the government and choose a new one. Until/unless they do that Boris is entitled to pursue whatever policy he thinks is right. The voters will have opportunity to judge him in due course.
That’s the system working as it is intended to. The fact that a majority of our MPs are preening fuckwits is not the fault of the system or of the government.
https://twitter.com/johnmcternan/status/1160087360622735361?s=20
Someone else here, forget who, sorry, suggested that the idea of a second referendum made her extremely hostile. Given she also seemed genuinely opposed to a no deal departure, it seems a bit odd.
Not sure, actually.
You are touchingly loyal. Defender of the faith. You are one of a small and diminishing group of loyal followers. And you are probably insulated from the coming pain.
Edit/ Indeed I recall there were a few suggesting that Labour could pass the MV specifically to get to the next stage and the opportunity to put down a PV amendment.
Had Mrs May been a clever tactician she might have offered it. And at last knockings there were suggestions she was going to try (in her offer to Labour) but was vetoed by Cabinet. As it was her wording went too far for the Tories and was the straw that broke the camel. But there we are.
What strikes me is how much of the current political playbook on the right seems to have been imported from the US (not surprisingly given that's the source of much of the money). So we have shadowy oligarch class money, all powerful advisors being political figureheads, and now too the trashing of normal parliamentary convention in the pursuit of raw political advantage. Not to mention the "culture war" BS designed to get the White working classes to vote for tax cuts and a shrunken welfare state.
Most likely we end up in the same place as the US too - with a debased and polarised political culture, disintegrating public services and a seething mass of rage on all sides. At least we're not armed.
Lib Dems: 14 to 17/9
Labour: 21 to 25/9
Conservatives: 29/9 to 2/10
SNP: 13 to 15/10
DUP: could not see anything on their web site.
The Cabinet Manual (see 2.19 on page 15 for VONCs and resignations) can be found at:
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/60641/cabinet-manual.pdf
And a Select Committee review of it, including complaints that remind us the Cabinet Manual is not handed down on tablets of stone, as does DH's header:
https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201415/cmselect/cmpolcon/233/233.pdf
Reputations are hard won and lost quickly. Does the UK want to be known asa country that defaults on its obligations?
For years I assumed the governing party came last and was only disabused in 1997!
You might like to consider the point that was discussed here briefly last nite that a more promising route for Remainers in the House might be to take control of the Order Papers. This would enable it to put forward its own legislation. For example, it could propose a motion to revoke Article 50 in the absence of an agreed deal (not No Deal) by such and such a date.
This would tie the PM's hands and he couldn't get out of it except by resigning.
It is something that Cummungs may well fear. VONC gives him a chance of winning, or at least defying the will of Parliament in the ways you suggest. Losing control of the House's business agenda permits no such manouevring.
Duh......
I suspect that if some lipstick was now applied to the pig they would leap at the chance to embrace it.
But the Clown Prince's great sun around which all his deeds and thoughts orbit is not No Deal, but his own ambition. Those seeking to avert said departure should harness the fool's egocentrism to the chariot of either a deal, or a referendum.
Or just take Parliamentary action, of course.
He needs parliament to get him off the hook of No Deal so he can go on a Betrayal Who Governs? GE campaign.
It is odd that one of the justified criticisms of Mrs May is that she failed to get, or even try to get, a consensus for her Brexit policy across the House or in the country. And yet when Johnson and Cummings threaten to ignore all conventions and push through a version of Brexit without any sort of consensus then it is all fine and dandy and no-one should be bothered.
Quite how such a Brexit is going to stick who can say. A 52/48 result is no basis for pushing through the most extreme version of Brexit you can find. A wise government would understand this.
Quite how such people will feel when a hard Left government ignores or abuses conventions is another matter. The wailing will be immense, I suspect. Their own role in creating these conditions will be forgotten.
A month or so ago I posted that I felt the country was in recession. I see it has got worse since last month. The service sector in particular has hit the rocks
Before that rule change, Buttler would have been safe. The bowler could only turn and run out a non-striking batsman out of his ground if the bowler had not yet entered his delivery stride.
The 2017 rule change altered that to before "the moment the bowler would have been expected to deliver the ball"
If you watch the video, Buttler steps out of his ground just after Ashwin's foot lands in his delivery stride. Under the rules Buttler grew up playing, he's safe. Under the recently changed rules, he's not.
With the politicians, the rules they grew up playing were changed under the FTPA, and many of them haven't yet adjusted.
We don’t yet know what’s going to happen. It’s far too soon to say that Remainers have been outplayed. An alternative analysis is that Johnson has been boxed into a corner. In order to win the leadership he had to promise an Oct 31st exit and that, basically, meant No Deal. What we can state about No Deal is that 1. It wasn’t what was offered in 2016 (so MM’s cricket analogy falls at the first hurdle), 2. Parliament is implacably opposed 3. The country doesn’t want it and will increasingly head that way and 4. It’s pretty obviously not in the national interest.
Given those things, I suggest Parliament will prevent it. Where there’s a will, there’ll be a way.
A separate footnote. I don’t think a November election is practical. It’s so dark and dreary. But if there is an election shortly after the alleged Brexit day, the EU are now suggesting that a cooling off period could mean the whole thing is simply reversed. Just one more speculative suggestion to throw onto the already enormous pile.
As you say, nobody acknowledges it and nobody acknowledges it because it is not true.
Cummings and Johnson are trying to hijack the referendum result and impose an outcome that we were told would not happen.
Presumably Rev Stu would leave the South-West, unless he was consciously modelling himself on the Young Pretender.
I can see him in a Jacobean Uniform, carrying a light-sabre down the Royal Mile, demanding that he be interviewed by other than Comics Today.