politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It took 330 days before TMay’s “best PM” rating dropped below

System · August 2019

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It took 330 days before TMay’s “best PM” rating dropped below 40% – Boris has done it within a fortnight

With all the numbers coming out about the new government it is perhaps worth looking at how Johnson and his team are comparing with Theresa May for the period starting when she became prime minister in July 2016.

Read the full story here

OnboardG1 · August 2019

First, like Eric Pickles at the lunch counter.

bookseller · August 2019

Second like Joe Biden

steve_garner · August 2019

Third like Spurs this coming season, or maybe not.

dixiedean · August 2019

Fourth. Rate. Like the skills needed for plumbing and construction work apparently!

steve_garner · August 2019

Fifth, like SLAB in the next election in Scotland.

HYUFD · August 2019

dixiedean said:
Fourth. Rate. Like the skills needed for plumbing and construction work apparently!

Sixth like the annual percentage cut in wages for British plumbers and construction workers diehard Remainers would ensure by keeping free movement from the EU for workers in those areas

Peter_the_Punter · August 2019

It's my first ever First. I just happened to switch on at the exact moment threads changed.

So what now - do I get a prize?

alex. · August 2019

HYUFD said:

dixiedean said:
Fourth. Rate. Like the skills needed for plumbing and construction work apparently!
Sixth like the annual percentage cut in wages for British plumbers and construction workers diehard Remainers would ensure by keeping free movement from the EU for workers in those areas

There’s massive shortages of construction workers in the U.K. supply can’t keep up with demand...

Philip_Thompson · August 2019

Difference is Theresa May spent 330 days expounding nothing but vapid platitudes like "Brexit means Brexit" and as soon as she got pinned down on policies her rating fell like a lead weight.

Boris has hit the ground running telling us exactly what he's planning to do. He did that during the campaign even, though many didn't believe him he is actually doing what he said - somewhat refreshing. His claims weren't "traps" he set himself but he's actually going ahead . . . that is pissing some people off, like our own quad of Mr Nabavi, TSE, Mr Herdson and Big G . . . but it also makes his support more real.

If there's an election we know roughly what his policy will be and it won't come as a tremendous shock.

alex. · August 2019

Peter_the_Punter said:
It's my first ever First. I just happened to switch on at the exact moment threads changed.

So what now - do I get a prize?

DSQ for posting on a duplicated thread

DecrepitJohnL · August 2019

It might be the Tories shot Boris in the foot by too cutely dragging out the contest up to the recess because it means there has been no news coverage of barnstorming performances at the despatch box or besting Corbyn at PMQs.

Instead there have been a series of announcements on the NHS and the like which were clearly intended to build momentum for Conservatism outside of Brexit but which have for some reason fallen flat, while talking heads queue up to tell us Boris is wrong about Brexit itself, or that he is going to strangle the Queen and kill all the corgis or some such if he loses a vote.

HYUFD · August 2019

Given Boris leads Corbyn 39% to 19% as preferred PM with YouGov today amongst all voters (including even leading Corbyn 32% to 23% with 25 to 49 year olds, 30% to 24% in London and 31% to 28% in Scotland) I doubt he is too bothered

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/8i9x45cenq/TheTimes_190806_VI_Trackers_w.pdf

MikeSmithson · August 2019

Philip_Thompson said:
Difference is Theresa May spent 330 days expounding nothing but vapid platitudes like "Brexit means Brexit" and as soon as she got pinned down on policies her rating fell like a lead weight.

Boris has hit the ground running telling us exactly what he's planning to do. He did that during the campaign even, though many didn't believe him he is actually doing what he said - somewhat refreshing. His claims weren't "traps" he set himself but he's actually going ahead . . . that is pissing some people off, like our own quad of Mr Nabavi, TSE, Mr Herdson and Big G . . . but it also makes his support more real.

If there's an election we know roughly what his policy will be and it won't come as a tremendous shock.

Numbers are numbers. This is desperate stuff. How does it make his numbers "more real".

alex. · August 2019

Philip_Thompson said:
Difference is Theresa May spent 330 days expounding nothing but vapid platitudes like "Brexit means Brexit" and as soon as she got pinned down on policies her rating fell like a lead weight.

Boris has hit the ground running telling us exactly what he's planning to do. He did that during the campaign even, though many didn't believe him he is actually doing what he said - somewhat refreshing. His claims weren't "traps" he set himself but he's actually going ahead . . . that is pissing some people off, like our own quad of Mr Nabavi, TSE, Mr Herdson and Big G . . . but it also makes his support more real.

If there's an election we know roughly what his policy will be and it won't come as a tremendous shock.

The consequences of his policy might though.

When do we get our leaflets?

dixiedean · August 2019

alex. said:

HYUFD said:

dixiedean said:
Fourth. Rate. Like the skills needed for plumbing and construction work apparently!
Sixth like the annual percentage cut in wages for British plumbers and construction workers diehard Remainers would ensure by keeping free movement from the EU for workers in those areas
There’s massive shortages of construction workers in the U.K. supply can’t keep up with demand...

Which may be only tangentially related to the gutting of FE. Fact is, it will take years to train up more. Oh, and all those teaching have been laid off too. So they'd need recruiting and training too first.

Philip_Thompson · August 2019

MikeSmithson said:

Philip_Thompson said:
Difference is Theresa May spent 330 days expounding nothing but vapid platitudes like "Brexit means Brexit" and as soon as she got pinned down on policies her rating fell like a lead weight.

Boris has hit the ground running telling us exactly what he's planning to do. He did that during the campaign even, though many didn't believe him he is actually doing what he said - somewhat refreshing. His claims weren't "traps" he set himself but he's actually going ahead . . . that is pissing some people off, like our own quad of Mr Nabavi, TSE, Mr Herdson and Big G . . . but it also makes his support more real.

If there's an election we know roughly what his policy will be and it won't come as a tremendous shock.
Numbers are numbers. This is desperate stuff. How does it make his numbers "more real".

Indeed numbers are numbers and that is all they are. Its also true the only number that matters is the number on election day, not whether it was 330 or 19 days before some arbitrary and meaningless threshold was hit. As for why its more real, for the logic I said.

How real were the numbers before polling day for May? Did she really win the election with a 24 point lead over Labour? In March 2017 May had a +24% leadership approval rating, while Corbyn had a -58% leadership approval rating . . . . did that continue through to the election or was it just meaningless historical numbers come election day?

I'll cite as evidence a table posted by a respect political commentator:
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/04/09/why-we-should-focus-much-more-on-leader-ratings-and-less-on-voting-intention/

Peter_the_Punter · August 2019

Peter_the_Punter said:
It's my first ever First. I just happened to switch on at the exact moment threads changed.

So what now - do I get a prize?

Edit: And it was deleted!

Peter_the_Punter · August 2019

alex. said:

Peter_the_Punter said:
It's my first ever First. I just happened to switch on at the exact moment threads changed.

So what now - do I get a prize?
DSQ for posting on a duplicated thread

Lol!

Richard_Nabavi · August 2019

Philip_Thompson said:
Difference is Theresa May spent 330 days expounding nothing but vapid platitudes like "Brexit means Brexit" and as soon as she got pinned down on policies her rating fell like a lead weight.

Boris has hit the ground running telling us exactly what he's planning to do. He did that during the campaign even, though many didn't believe him he is actually doing what he said - somewhat refreshing. His claims weren't "traps" he set himself but he's actually going ahead . . . that is pissing some people off, like our own quad of Mr Nabavi, TSE, Mr Herdson and Big G . . . but it also makes his support more real.

If there's an election we know roughly what his policy will be and it won't come as a tremendous shock.

Hmm: 'do or die' is not a vapid platitude? Really?

You are right of course that Boris has hit the ground running. Unfortunately he's running fast towards a brick wall, having pledged in blood to dash his head against it.

Meanwhile Nigel Farage can't believe his luck.

eek · August 2019

Have we done this view from Dublin yet?

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1159569582631399429?s=20

Roger · August 2019

HYUFD said:
Given Boris leads Corbyn 39% to 19% as preferred PM with YouGov today amongst all voters (including even leading Corbyn 32% to 23% with 25 to 49 year olds, 30% to 24% in London and 31% to 28% in Scotland) I doubt he is too bothered

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/8i9x45cenq/TheTimes_190806_VI_Trackers_w.pdf

I'd worry that the Remain vote outnumbers Boris's Leave vote by a wide margin if I was a Tory. Even if they liked Johnson (for which their is little evidence) they certainly don't like where he's taking his party.

Richard_Nabavi · August 2019

eek said:
Have we done this view from Dublin yet?

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1159569582631399429?s=20

Yes, on the previous thread, but it's excellent and well worth repeating.

This one of the series is probably the most significant, albeit obvious:

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1159569606639575041

HYUFD · August 2019

alex. said:

HYUFD said:

dixiedean said:
Fourth. Rate. Like the skills needed for plumbing and construction work apparently!
Sixth like the annual percentage cut in wages for British plumbers and construction workers diehard Remainers would ensure by keeping free movement from the EU for workers in those areas
There’s massive shortages of construction workers in the U.K. supply can’t keep up with demand...

Why might that be?

'Average wages in the construction industry have soared as the UK loses EU workers because of Brexit, according to a recruitment firm.

Recruiters Randstrad said average pay in a sector survey had increased to £45,900 a year in 2018, a £3,600 rise in just 12 months.

The figures are even higher for site managers and for jobs in London. The average site manager surveyed said they took home £50,500 a year outside the capital, and others reported a £3,000 London premium...The firm said the trend came amid falling advertised vacancies in the sector.
Construction firms could be paying more because of a shortfall of workers caused by lower levels of EU migration to the UK.'

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/average-pay-soars-in-construction-jobs-as-uk-loses-eu-workers-brexit-095802086.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYmluZy5jb20vc2VhcmNoP3E9d2FnZXMrZmFsbHMrdWsrY29uc3RydWN0aW9uK3dvcmtlcnMmZm9ybT1FREdUQ1QmcXM9UEYmY3ZpZD0wOTE5NTU1NGE3Mjg0ZWIwYjYzZjM4MGQ1NDVmYmM5NCZyZWZpZz0yMTkwZjA5MjhjZTg0Njg4OTE4MzczMDg2ZjY5MmFmMCZjYz1HQiZzZXRsYW5nPWVuLVVT&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAIhR8ZIPhliOdZ_9ki2YrjFtzSKwVg--SLZvmfRDHplTQ9_CKw19jROeAPWOlw2su_6Lg22KOSksQdZUYAH4ztO8JJ8RalDXTQrUNh-OLvre6sgP2Y3hHPDoPNwMjIiWbI7GSEFRNvBtIlvA_NVe_ZQqgteCve7xKiJOq5tQPQRU

SouthamObserver · August 2019

HYUFD said:

dixiedean said:
Fourth. Rate. Like the skills needed for plumbing and construction work apparently!
Sixth like the annual percentage cut in wages for British plumbers and construction workers diehard Remainers would ensure by keeping free movement from the EU for workers in those

I always thought Tories were on the side of consumers, not producers.

The_Taxman · August 2019

HYUFD said:

dixiedean said:
Fourth. Rate. Like the skills needed for plumbing and construction work apparently!
Sixth like the annual percentage cut in wages for British plumbers and construction workers diehard Remainers would ensure by keeping free movement from the EU for workers in those areas

Had you ever thought that if Boris has a more liberal immigration policy from the rest of the world, that, it might attract more people from countries with an even lower standard of living than eastern European migrants. Thereby undercutting UK born people even more? Basically, the pull factor will be even greater from Africa, southern Asia etc than it ever was from Europe. I cannot see those who voted Leave on the immigration issue being too pleased about this?

Philip_Thompson · August 2019

Richard_Nabavi said:

Philip_Thompson said:
Difference is Theresa May spent 330 days expounding nothing but vapid platitudes like "Brexit means Brexit" and as soon as she got pinned down on policies her rating fell like a lead weight.

Boris has hit the ground running telling us exactly what he's planning to do. He did that during the campaign even, though many didn't believe him he is actually doing what he said - somewhat refreshing. His claims weren't "traps" he set himself but he's actually going ahead . . . that is pissing some people off, like our own quad of Mr Nabavi, TSE, Mr Herdson and Big G . . . but it also makes his support more real.

If there's an election we know roughly what his policy will be and it won't come as a tremendous shock.
Hmm: 'do or die' is not a vapid platitude? Really?

You are right of course that Boris has hit the ground running. Unfortunately he's running fast towards a brick wall, having pledged in blood to dash his head against it.

Meanwhile Nigel Farage can't believe his luck.

If we don't exit on 31 October then yes it was a vapid platitude and his ratings will sink.

If we do exit on 31 October then no it was not a vapid platitude and he will have done what many said was impossible.

If we exit on 31 October then Farage will be an historical figure. He will no longer be an elected representative and his party will dissolve because FPTP kills his party. He will have no future in our politics and for that I am grateful.

Roger · August 2019

Peter_the_Punter said:
It's my first ever First. I just happened to switch on at the exact moment threads changed.

So what now - do I get a prize?

A first is a first. I didn't even get my cycling proficiency test

CatMan · August 2019

The_Taxman said:
I cannot see those who voted Leave on the immigration issue being too pleased about this?

The people who voted Leave for immigration reasons will never be satisfied.

Richard_Nabavi · August 2019

Boris is beginning to sound a bit plaintive:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/08/no-10-refuses-to-rule-out-election-shortly-after-31-october-brexit

Philip_Thompson · August 2019

For Mr Smithson and his "numbers are numbers" comment, I found that excellent post of yours that I quoted by browsing through threads posted with the "leader-approval-ratings" category.

It is worth as a before-and-after comparison checking these two consecutive posts of yours in this category.

Dated 28/3/17: http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/03/28/if-indeed-gfk-is-part-of-a-conspiracy-against-corbyn-then-how-come-other-pollsters-have-similar-numbers/

Dated 23/6/17: http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/06/23/it-is-the-trend-in-the-yougov-best-pm-ratings-that-should-really-worry-the-tories/

I don't think in hindsight May's numbers were anything to be proud of. They were like a mirage and when it mattered most they vanished.

Richard_Nabavi · August 2019

Philip_Thompson said:

If we exit on 31 October then Farage will be an historical figure. He will no longer be an elected representative and his party will dissolve because FPTP kills his party. He will have no future in our politics and for that I am grateful.

Yeah, sure.

rottenborough · August 2019

bookseller said:
Second like Joe Biden

In the General or the Primary?

HYUFD · August 2019

Roger said:

HYUFD said:
Given Boris leads Corbyn 39% to 19% as preferred PM with YouGov today amongst all voters (including even leading Corbyn 32% to 23% with 25 to 49 year olds, 30% to 24% in London and 31% to 28% in Scotland) I doubt he is too bothered

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/8i9x45cenq/TheTimes_190806_VI_Trackers_w.pdf
I'd worry that the Remain vote outnumbers Boris's Leave vote by a wide margin if I was a Tory. Even if they liked Johnson (for which their is little evidence) they certainly don't like where he's taking his party.

The poll gives a 9% Tory lead over Labour, enough for a small Tory majority even with some losses to the LDs and SNP

The_Taxman · August 2019

Philip_Thompson said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Philip_Thompson said:
Difference is Theresa May spent 330 days expounding nothing but vapid platitudes like "Brexit means Brexit" and as soon as she got pinned down on policies her rating fell like a lead weight.

Boris has hit the ground running telling us exactly what he's planning to do. He did that during the campaign even, though many didn't believe him he is actually doing what he said - somewhat refreshing. His claims weren't "traps" he set himself but he's actually going ahead . . . that is pissing some people off, like our own quad of Mr Nabavi, TSE, Mr Herdson and Big G . . . but it also makes his support more real.

If there's an election we know roughly what his policy will be and it won't come as a tremendous shock.
Hmm: 'do or die' is not a vapid platitude? Really?

You are right of course that Boris has hit the ground running. Unfortunately he's running fast towards a brick wall, having pledged in blood to dash his head against it.

Meanwhile Nigel Farage can't believe his luck.
If we don't exit on 31 October then yes it was a vapid platitude and his ratings will sink.

If we do exit on 31 October then no it was not a vapid platitude and he will have done what many said was impossible.

If we exit on 31 October then Farage will be an historical figure. He will no longer be an elected representative and his party will dissolve because FPTP kills his party. He will have no future in our politics and for that I am grateful.

If we leave with a deal I don't think Farage will go quietly into the night! Come to think about it even if the UK does leave I suspect he will find some other issue. Farage is a narcissist and now he has experienced influence all he has to do is ride the Brexit supporting media bandwagons and oppose issues or advocate lower taxes, more spending on x or y. Indeed the question of immigration may drive him forward as its going to rocket from non-EU countries. The only thing that will shut Farage up is death or incapacity IMO.

Philip_Thompson · August 2019

The_Taxman said:

HYUFD said:

dixiedean said:
Fourth. Rate. Like the skills needed for plumbing and construction work apparently!
Sixth like the annual percentage cut in wages for British plumbers and construction workers diehard Remainers would ensure by keeping free movement from the EU for workers in those areas
Had you ever thought that if Boris has a more liberal immigration policy from the rest of the world, that, it might attract more people from countries with an even lower standard of living than eastern European migrants. Thereby undercutting UK born people even more? Basically, the pull factor will be even greater from Africa, southern Asia etc than it ever was from Europe. I cannot see those who voted Leave on the immigration issue being too pleased about this?

As a Libertarian attracting more immigration is a good not a bad thing.

But as a practical Libertarian it is attracting valuable, high-skilled immigration that we need.

We have had our migration policy completely arse-over-tit. We have had for years restrictive caps on scientists, doctors and other high skilled migrants but allowed any unskilled migration that fancied coming with no preconditions.

Restricting the world's best and brightest and allowing an infinite number of unskilled is not a great success. If companies need to start to invest in machines that can make your cappuccino or can wash your car instead of unskilled labourers doing it for minimum wage . . . but the Wellness Group and the NHS can attract the world's best and brightest . . . I'd say that is progress.

HYUFD · August 2019

SouthamObserver said:

HYUFD said:

dixiedean said:
Fourth. Rate. Like the skills needed for plumbing and construction work apparently!
Sixth like the annual percentage cut in wages for British plumbers and construction workers diehard Remainers would ensure by keeping free movement from the EU for workers in those

I always thought Tories were on the side of consumers, not producers.

The Tories want well paid jobs as well and controlled immigration

Sean_F · August 2019

SouthamObserver said:

HYUFD said:

dixiedean said:
Fourth. Rate. Like the skills needed for plumbing and construction work apparently!
Sixth like the annual percentage cut in wages for British plumbers and construction workers diehard Remainers would ensure by keeping free movement from the EU for workers in those

I always thought Tories were on the side of consumers, not producers.

Does it matter?

Parties go where the votes are.

Currystardog · August 2019

Just watched Vince Cable on Newsnight, my god he talked nonsense

HYUFD · August 2019

The_Taxman said:

HYUFD said:

dixiedean said:
Fourth. Rate. Like the skills needed for plumbing and construction work apparently!
Sixth like the annual percentage cut in wages for British plumbers and construction workers diehard Remainers would ensure by keeping free movement from the EU for workers in those areas
Had you ever thought that if Boris has a more liberal immigration policy from the rest of the world, that, it might attract more people from countries with an even lower standard of living than eastern European migrants. Thereby undercutting UK born people even more? Basically, the pull factor will be even greater from Africa, southern Asia etc than it ever was from Europe. I cannot see those who voted Leave on the immigration issue being too pleased about this?

Boris is introducing a points system so whether a low or medium skilled worker comes from Africa or Estonia there will be fewer of them, while we will take in more high skilled workers from those nations where needed.

I am sure those who voted Leave on the immigration issue, ie mainly low and medium skilled workers, will be delighted about this

Gallowgate · August 2019

Currystardog said:
Just watched Vince Cable on Newsnight, my god he talked nonsense

Pot kettle

Philip_Thompson · August 2019

Richard_Nabavi said:

Philip_Thompson said:

If we exit on 31 October then Farage will be an historical figure. He will no longer be an elected representative and his party will dissolve because FPTP kills his party. He will have no future in our politics and for that I am grateful.
Yeah, sure.

Farage was history once before until May choked and chickened out of us actually leaving.

Then he timed his return perfectly for an election he knew how to win - held under Proportional Representation - rather than FPTP that he doesn't know how to win.

When we exit we in one swoop scrap PR, scrap the European Parliament, kill off his raison d'etre and kill off his soapbox.

He can continue to mouth off if he wants but he won't have a platform in a Parliament to do it from. He won't have a PR election to fight and win. I think he'll slink off back to the USA and take well-funded speeches and roles on American TV as he'll have no future here.

Currystardog · August 2019

Gallowgate said:

Currystardog said:
Just watched Vince Cable on Newsnight, my god he talked nonsense
Pot kettle

Go on then tell me what nonsense I talk

rottenborough · August 2019

https://twitter.com/OliverKamm/status/1159194123108257793

The_Taxman · August 2019

Philip_Thompson said:

The_Taxman said:

HYUFD said:

dixiedean said:
Fourth. Rate. Like the skills needed for plumbing and construction work apparently!
Sixth like the annual percentage cut in wages for British plumbers and construction workers diehard Remainers would ensure by keeping free movement from the EU for workers in those areas
Had you ever thought that if Boris has a more liberal immigration policy from the rest of the world, that, it might attract more people from countries with an even lower standard of living than eastern European migrants. Thereby undercutting UK born people even more? Basically, the pull factor will be even greater from Africa, southern Asia etc than it ever was from Europe. I cannot see those who voted Leave on the immigration issue being too pleased about this?
As a Libertarian attracting more immigration is a good not a bad thing.

But as a practical Libertarian it is attracting valuable, high-skilled immigration that we need.

We have had our migration policy completely arse-over-tit. We have had for years restrictive caps on scientists, doctors and other high skilled migrants but allowed any unskilled migration that fancied coming with no preconditions.

Restricting the world's best and brightest and allowing an infinite number of unskilled is not a great success. If companies need to start to invest in machines that can make your cappuccino or can wash your car instead of unskilled labourers doing it for minimum wage . . . but the Wellness Group and the NHS can attract the world's best and brightest . . . I'd say that is progress.

Personally, I could not care less who comes into the country as long as they are not criminals that will attack, steal or defraud people. However, I helped an old lady today who voted for Brexit and she said that she was aware that the economy might not perform as well "but at least the immigrants will go home". I told her she was wrong on this and instead of European immigrants, more would come from elsewhere in the world. She changed the subject....

Philip_Thompson · August 2019

The_Taxman said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Philip_Thompson said:
Difference is Theresa May spent 330 days expounding nothing but vapid platitudes like "Brexit means Brexit" and as soon as she got pinned down on policies her rating fell like a lead weight.

Boris has hit the ground running telling us exactly what he's planning to do. He did that during the campaign even, though many didn't believe him he is actually doing what he said - somewhat refreshing. His claims weren't "traps" he set himself but he's actually going ahead . . . that is pissing some people off, like our own quad of Mr Nabavi, TSE, Mr Herdson and Big G . . . but it also makes his support more real.

If there's an election we know roughly what his policy will be and it won't come as a tremendous shock.
Hmm: 'do or die' is not a vapid platitude? Really?

You are right of course that Boris has hit the ground running. Unfortunately he's running fast towards a brick wall, having pledged in blood to dash his head against it.

Meanwhile Nigel Farage can't believe his luck.
If we don't exit on 31 October then yes it was a vapid platitude and his ratings will sink.

If we do exit on 31 October then no it was not a vapid platitude and he will have done what many said was impossible.

If we exit on 31 October then Farage will be an historical figure. He will no longer be an elected representative and his party will dissolve because FPTP kills his party. He will have no future in our politics and for that I am grateful.
If we leave with a deal I don't think Farage will go quietly into the night! Come to think about it even if the UK does leave I suspect he will find some other issue. Farage is a narcissist and now he has experienced influence all he has to do is ride the Brexit supporting media bandwagons and oppose issues or advocate lower taxes, more spending on x or y. Indeed the question of immigration may drive him forward as its going to rocket from non-EU countries. The only thing that will shut Farage up is death or incapacity IMO.

On what platform?

He loves grandstanding in the European Parliament, it gives him a platform to rant and rave and insult Europeans right to their face with the camera panning between him and his target.

Once we've left what has he got? Is he going to put the legwork into winning by-elections? Or will he take his influence as the man who achieved Brexit and go join his friend Trump across the Pond and get a show on Fox?

dixiedean · August 2019

The_Taxman said:

Philip_Thompson said:

The_Taxman said:

HYUFD said:

dixiedean said:
Fourth. Rate. Like the skills needed for plumbing and construction work apparently!
Sixth like the annual percentage cut in wages for British plumbers and construction workers diehard Remainers would ensure by keeping free movement from the EU for workers in those areas
Had you ever thought that if Boris has a more liberal immigration policy from the rest of the world, that, it might attract more people from countries with an even lower standard of living than eastern European migrants. Thereby undercutting UK born people even more? Basically, the pull factor will be even greater from Africa, southern Asia etc than it ever was from Europe. I cannot see those who voted Leave on the immigration issue being too pleased about this?
As a Libertarian attracting more immigration is a good not a bad thing.

But as a practical Libertarian it is attracting valuable, high-skilled immigration that we need.

We have had our migration policy completely arse-over-tit. We have had for years restrictive caps on scientists, doctors and other high skilled migrants but allowed any unskilled migration that fancied coming with no preconditions.

Restricting the world's best and brightest and allowing an infinite number of unskilled is not a great success. If companies need to start to invest in machines that can make your cappuccino or can wash your car instead of unskilled labourers doing it for minimum wage . . . but the Wellness Group and the NHS can attract the world's best and brightest . . . I'd say that is progress.
Personally, I could not care less who comes into the country as long as they are not criminals that will attack, steal or defraud people. However, I helped an old lady today who voted for Brexit and she said that she was aware that the economy might not perform as well "but at least the immigrants will go home". I told her she was wrong on this and instead of European immigrants, more would come from elsewhere in the world. She changed the subject....

You met Anne Widdecombe?

CatMan · August 2019

HYUFD said:

I am sure those who voted Leave on the immigration issue, ie mainly low and medium skilled workers, will be delighted about this

Yeah, until they go down the local supermarket and discover there are still brown skinned people there

Stark_Dawning · August 2019

Philip_Thompson said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Philip_Thompson said:

If we exit on 31 October then Farage will be an historical figure. He will no longer be an elected representative and his party will dissolve because FPTP kills his party. He will have no future in our politics and for that I am grateful.
Yeah, sure.
Farage was history once before until May choked and chickened out of us actually leaving.

Then he timed his return perfectly for an election he knew how to win - held under Proportional Representation - rather than FPTP that he doesn't know how to win.

When we exit we in one swoop scrap PR, scrap the European Parliament, kill off his raison d'etre and kill off his soapbox.

He can continue to mouth off if he wants but he won't have a platform in a Parliament to do it from. He won't have a PR election to fight and win. I think he'll slink off back to the USA and take well-funded speeches and roles on American TV as he'll have no future here.

Sounds like 'Devolution will kill Nationalism stone dead'.

FF43 · August 2019

On US trade deals.

John Howard then PM of Australia controversially brought his country into the Iraq war on the idea that Australia should stay close to America and this would unlock all sorts of trade deals. Howard then called in the favour and after some foot dragging on the part of the Americans got his FTA The Australia Productivity Commission subsequently reviewed the deal and determined it brought no net advantage to Australia, which did far better with another multilateral deal.

Why should we expect any FTA with the US not to leave us actually worse off? The president now dislikes any arrangement that doesn't give the US an egregious advantage, unlike Bush he doesn't owe us any favours. And our government seems DESPERATE to sign.

dixiedean · August 2019

HYUFD said:

The_Taxman said:

HYUFD said:

dixiedean said:
Fourth. Rate. Like the skills needed for plumbing and construction work apparently!
Sixth like the annual percentage cut in wages for British plumbers and construction workers diehard Remainers would ensure by keeping free movement from the EU for workers in those areas
Had you ever thought that if Boris has a more liberal immigration policy from the rest of the world, that, it might attract more people from countries with an even lower standard of living than eastern European migrants. Thereby undercutting UK born people even more? Basically, the pull factor will be even greater from Africa, southern Asia etc than it ever was from Europe. I cannot see those who voted Leave on the immigration issue being too pleased about this?
Boris is introducing a points system so whether a low or medium skilled worker comes from Africa or Estonia there will be fewer of them, while we will take in more high skilled workers from those nations where needed.

I am sure those who voted Leave on the immigration issue, ie mainly low and medium skilled workers, will be delighted about this

The problem, as you just demonstrated, is they tend not to have much idea what constitutes "skills" and what any old random can do with a week's induction.

Philip_Thompson · August 2019

The_Taxman said:
Personally, I could not care less who comes into the country as long as they are not criminals that will attack, steal or defraud people. However, I helped an old lady today who voted for Brexit and she said that she was aware that the economy might not perform as well "but at least the immigrants will go home". I told her she was wrong on this and instead of European immigrants, more would come from elsewhere in the world. She changed the subject....

I'm glad she's wrong, aren't you? I'm also glad Boris has dropped the tens of thousands pledge and liberalised migration we need.

It doesn't mean that our old system wasn't a mess. I can see no reason to justify turning away the best and brightest while allowing uncapped low skilled migration. Can you justify it?

Gallowgate · August 2019

Currystardog said:

Gallowgate said:

Currystardog said:
Just watched Vince Cable on Newsnight, my god he talked nonsense
Pot kettle
Go on then tell me what nonsense I talk

Quite literally everything.

rottenborough · August 2019

Will this be seen as the moment the tide turned?

"EL PASO — If consoling the nation in a time of desperate need is a vital and yet simple task of the American presidency, Donald J. Trump failed miserably this week."

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/08/opinion/el-paso-trump-racism.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

Drutt · August 2019

On topic, is it the PM/LOTO 'best PM' margin or the raw approval numbers that are the best indication of electoral success? C'mon, someone on here must keep a spreadsheet.

On the Boris-headhunting-overseas scientists point, it's always seemed self-evident to me that a mature economy should treat immigration the same way a business should treat recruitment. Establish the nature, size and shape of the shortfall you have, seek applications, select from applicants.

Assuming (and this may be a bit of a reach) that the electorate agrees broadly with the Gov view of 'recruitment' need, nobody resents the new kid as a freeloader, easing community harmony to boot.

HYUFD · August 2019

rottenborough said:
Will this be seen as the moment the tide turned?

"EL PASO — If consoling the nation in a time of desperate need is a vital and yet simple task of the American presidency, Donald J. Trump failed miserably this week."

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/08/opinion/el-paso-trump-racism.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

No, that is the New York Times, anti Trump central

Philip_Thompson · August 2019

Stark_Dawning said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Philip_Thompson said:

If we exit on 31 October then Farage will be an historical figure. He will no longer be an elected representative and his party will dissolve because FPTP kills his party. He will have no future in our politics and for that I am grateful.
Yeah, sure.
Farage was history once before until May choked and chickened out of us actually leaving.

Then he timed his return perfectly for an election he knew how to win - held under Proportional Representation - rather than FPTP that he doesn't know how to win.

When we exit we in one swoop scrap PR, scrap the European Parliament, kill off his raison d'etre and kill off his soapbox.

He can continue to mouth off if he wants but he won't have a platform in a Parliament to do it from. He won't have a PR election to fight and win. I think he'll slink off back to the USA and take well-funded speeches and roles on American TV as he'll have no future here.
Sounds like 'Devolution will kill Nationalism stone dead'.

Except they're polar opposites.

Devolution gave the SNP a platform. It gave them Holyrood. It gave them PR. It gave them a soapbox.

Brexit takes away Farage's platform. It takes away Brussels, it takes away PR, it takes away his soapbox.

The_Taxman · August 2019

Philip_Thompson

I would not be so certain of these things! A Tory Government that has been in power for a decade starts to induce boredom in journalists. I despise Farage but he sells to a group of people in the country. Voters also get bored, if the Labour party is not a safe receptacle for voters then a protest party with media support could take votes from the Tories for instance. Political business might not return to how it was before Brexit, nothing in life is guaranteed and the end of Farage does not necessarily accompany Brexit. I am well aware of how FPTP kills new parties but his objective might be as a pressure group and irritant rather than a vehicle of power...

Philip_Thompson · August 2019

FF43 said:
On US trade deals.

John Howard then PM of Australia controversially brought his country into the Iraq war on the idea that Australia should stay close to America and this would unlock all sorts of trade deals. Howard then called in the favour and after some foot dragging on the part of the Americans got his FTA The Australia Productivity Commission subsequently reviewed the deal and determined it brought no net advantage to Australia, which did far better with another multilateral deal.

Why should we expect any FTA with the US not to leave us actually worse off? The president now dislikes any arrangement that doesn't give the US an egregious advantage, unlike Bush he doesn't owe us any favours. And our government seems DESPERATE to sign.

Meanwhile in the real world Australia has since then grown from strength to strength, while the UK has flatlined in Europe.

But yeah any time I say this its all natural resources, Australia has nothing else apparently.

rottenborough · August 2019

https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1159471721314996225

Great. Except a substantial proportion are not really Labour at all.

HYUFD · August 2019

CatMan said:

HYUFD said:

I am sure those who voted Leave on the immigration issue, ie mainly low and medium skilled workers, will be delighted about this
Yeah, until they go down the local supermarket and discover there are still brown skinned people there

Utter crap, most Leave voters are not racist, they just do not want to have to compete with an excess supply of immigrants for their jobs undercutting their wages.

EU migrants will just have to compete on the same terms as migrants from elsewhere to come here, not have an open door as they did with free movement

Gallowgate · August 2019

Philip_Thompson said:

FF43 said:
On US trade deals.

John Howard then PM of Australia controversially brought his country into the Iraq war on the idea that Australia should stay close to America and this would unlock all sorts of trade deals. Howard then called in the favour and after some foot dragging on the part of the Americans got his FTA The Australia Productivity Commission subsequently reviewed the deal and determined it brought no net advantage to Australia, which did far better with another multilateral deal.

Why should we expect any FTA with the US not to leave us actually worse off? The president now dislikes any arrangement that doesn't give the US an egregious advantage, unlike Bush he doesn't owe us any favours. And our government seems DESPERATE to sign.
Meanwhile in the real world Australia has since then grown from strength to strength, while the UK has flatlined in Europe.

But yeah any time I say this its all natural resources, Australia has nothing else apparently.

Where is this magical growth going to come from after Brexit?

Gallowgate · August 2019

HYUFD said:

CatMan said:

HYUFD said:

I am sure those who voted Leave on the immigration issue, ie mainly low and medium skilled workers, will be delighted about this
Yeah, until they go down the local supermarket and discover there are still brown skinned people there
Utter crap, most Leave voters are not racist, they just do not want to have to compete with an excess supply of immigrants for their jobs undercutting their wages.

EU migrants will just have to compete on the same terms as migrants from elsewhere to come here, not have an open door as they did with free movement

The old pensioners are worried about people undercutting their wages? What.

Philip_Thompson · August 2019

The_Taxman said:
I would not be so certain of these things! A Tory Government that has been in power for a decade starts to induce boredom in journalists. I despise Farage but he sells to a group of people in the country. Voters also get bored, if the Labour party is not a safe receptacle for voters then a protest party with media support could take votes from the Tories for instance. Political business might not return to how it was before Brexit, nothing in life is guaranteed and the end of Farage does not necessarily accompany Brexit. I am well aware of how FPTP kills new parties but his objective might be as a pressure group and irritant rather than a vehicle of power...

Farage is certainly an irritant but what is he going to be an irritant for? And how will he maintain pressure?

Especially when he will only be able to compete under FPTP. He's useless at FPTP now, how is he going to get any better in the future with PR taken away?

Drutt · August 2019

Philip_Thompson said:

The_Taxman said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Philip_Thompson said:
Difference is Theresa May spent 330 days expounding nothing but vapid platitudes like "Brexit means Brexit" and as soon as she got pinned down on policies her rating fell like a lead weight.

Boris has hit the ground running telling us exactly what he's planning to do. He did that during the campaign even, though many didn't believe him he is actually doing what he said - somewhat refreshing. His claims weren't "traps" he set himself but he's actually going ahead . . . that is pissing some people off, like our own quad of Mr Nabavi, TSE, Mr Herdson and Big G . . . but it also makes his support more real.

If there's an election we know roughly what his policy will be and it won't come as a tremendous shock.
Hmm: 'do or die' is not a vapid platitude? Really?

You are right of course that Boris has hit the ground running. Unfortunately he's running fast towards a brick wall, having pledged in blood to dash his head against it.

Meanwhile Nigel Farage can't believe his luck.
If we don't exit on 31 October then yes it was a vapid platitude and his ratings will sink.

If we do exit on 31 October then no it was not a vapid platitude and he will have done what many said was impossible.

If we exit on 31 October then Farage will be an historical figure. He will no longer be an elected representative and his party will dissolve because FPTP kills his party. He will have no future in our politics and for that I am grateful.
If we leave with a deal I don't think Farage will go quietly into the night! Come to think about it even if the UK does leave I suspect he will find some other issue. Farage is a narcissist and now he has experienced influence all he has to do is ride the Brexit supporting media bandwagons and oppose issues or advocate lower taxes, more spending on x or y. Indeed the question of immigration may drive him forward as its going to rocket from non-EU countries. The only thing that will shut Farage up is death or incapacity IMO.
On what platform?

He loves grandstanding in the European Parliament, it gives him a platform to rant and rave and insult Europeans right to their face with the camera panning between him and his target.

Once we've left what has he got? Is he going to put the legwork into winning by-elections? Or will he take his influence as the man who achieved Brexit and go join his friend Trump across the Pond and get a show on Fox?

He won't get on Fox. Everyone on Fox has teeth like a fridge shop window, and Farage's look like a pan of burnt chips.

No_Offence_Alan · August 2019

HYUFD said:

The_Taxman said:

HYUFD said:

dixiedean said:
Fourth. Rate. Like the skills needed for plumbing and construction work apparently!
Sixth like the annual percentage cut in wages for British plumbers and construction workers diehard Remainers would ensure by keeping free movement from the EU for workers in those areas
Had you ever thought that if Boris has a more liberal immigration policy from the rest of the world, that, it might attract more people from countries with an even lower standard of living than eastern European migrants. Thereby undercutting UK born people even more? Basically, the pull factor will be even greater from Africa, southern Asia etc than it ever was from Europe. I cannot see those who voted Leave on the immigration issue being too pleased about this?
Boris is introducing a points system so whether a low or medium skilled worker comes from Africa or Estonia there will be fewer of them, while we will take in more high skilled workers from those nations where needed.

I am sure those who voted Leave on the immigration issue, ie mainly low and medium skilled workers, will be delighted about this

Will this points system be run as efficiently as Universal Credit?

HYUFD · August 2019

Philip_Thompson said:

The_Taxman said:
Personally, I could not care less who comes into the country as long as they are not criminals that will attack, steal or defraud people. However, I helped an old lady today who voted for Brexit and she said that she was aware that the economy might not perform as well "but at least the immigrants will go home". I told her she was wrong on this and instead of European immigrants, more would come from elsewhere in the world. She changed the subject....
I'm glad she's wrong, aren't you? I'm also glad Boris has dropped the tens of thousands pledge and liberalised migration we need.

It doesn't mean that our old system wasn't a mess. I can see no reason to justify turning away the best and brightest while allowing uncapped low skilled migration. Can you justify it?

No, because all high earning diehard Remainers do is yell 'racist' at anyone who suggests an immigration system based on skills needed rather than an open door

Philip_Thompson · August 2019

Gallowgate said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FF43 said:
On US trade deals.

John Howard then PM of Australia controversially brought his country into the Iraq war on the idea that Australia should stay close to America and this would unlock all sorts of trade deals. Howard then called in the favour and after some foot dragging on the part of the Americans got his FTA The Australia Productivity Commission subsequently reviewed the deal and determined it brought no net advantage to Australia, which did far better with another multilateral deal.

Why should we expect any FTA with the US not to leave us actually worse off? The president now dislikes any arrangement that doesn't give the US an egregious advantage, unlike Bush he doesn't owe us any favours. And our government seems DESPERATE to sign.
Meanwhile in the real world Australia has since then grown from strength to strength, while the UK has flatlined in Europe.

But yeah any time I say this its all natural resources, Australia has nothing else apparently.
Where is this magical growth going to come from after Brexit?

We could liberalise our regulations like Singapore.
We could sign trade deals with the rest of the world like America.

For starters.

Gallowgate · August 2019

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

The_Taxman said:
Personally, I could not care less who comes into the country as long as they are not criminals that will attack, steal or defraud people. However, I helped an old lady today who voted for Brexit and she said that she was aware that the economy might not perform as well "but at least the immigrants will go home". I told her she was wrong on this and instead of European immigrants, more would come from elsewhere in the world. She changed the subject....
I'm glad she's wrong, aren't you? I'm also glad Boris has dropped the tens of thousands pledge and liberalised migration we need.

It doesn't mean that our old system wasn't a mess. I can see no reason to justify turning away the best and brightest while allowing uncapped low skilled migration. Can you justify it?
No, because all high earning diehard Remainers do is yell 'racist' at anyone who suggests an immigration system based on skills needed rather than an open door

It is the young who have to compete for these jobs and it is the young who voted overwhelmingly for Remain.

Gallowgate · August 2019

Philip_Thompson said:

Gallowgate said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FF43 said:
On US trade deals.

John Howard then PM of Australia controversially brought his country into the Iraq war on the idea that Australia should stay close to America and this would unlock all sorts of trade deals. Howard then called in the favour and after some foot dragging on the part of the Americans got his FTA The Australia Productivity Commission subsequently reviewed the deal and determined it brought no net advantage to Australia, which did far better with another multilateral deal.

Why should we expect any FTA with the US not to leave us actually worse off? The president now dislikes any arrangement that doesn't give the US an egregious advantage, unlike Bush he doesn't owe us any favours. And our government seems DESPERATE to sign.
Meanwhile in the real world Australia has since then grown from strength to strength, while the UK has flatlined in Europe.

But yeah any time I say this its all natural resources, Australia has nothing else apparently.
Where is this magical growth going to come from after Brexit?
We could liberalise our regulations like Singapore.
We could sign trade deals with the rest of the world like America.

For starters.

Why will signing a FTA with America make any difference to our growth? American companies already trade with Britain. It isn’t a vast new market.

HYUFD · August 2019

No_Offence_Alan said:

HYUFD said:

The_Taxman said:

HYUFD said:

dixiedean said:
Fourth. Rate. Like the skills needed for plumbing and construction work apparently!
Sixth like the annual percentage cut in wages for British plumbers and construction workers diehard Remainers would ensure by keeping free movement from the EU for workers in those areas
Had you ever thought that if Boris has a more liberal immigration policy from the rest of the world, that, it might attract more people from countries with an even lower standard of living than eastern European migrants. Thereby undercutting UK born people even more? Basically, the pull factor will be even greater from Africa, southern Asia etc than it ever was from Europe. I cannot see those who voted Leave on the immigration issue being too pleased about this?
Boris is introducing a points system so whether a low or medium skilled worker comes from Africa or Estonia there will be fewer of them, while we will take in more high skilled workers from those nations where needed.

I am sure those who voted Leave on the immigration issue, ie mainly low and medium skilled workers, will be delighted about this

HYUFD said:

The_Taxman said:

HYUFD said:

dixiedean said:
Fourth. Rate. Like the skills needed for plumbing and construction work apparently!
Sixth like the annual percentage cut in wages for British plumbers and construction workers diehard Remainers would ensure by keeping free movement from the EU for workers in those areas
Had you ever thought that if Boris has a more liberal immigration policy from the rest of the world, that, it might attract more people from countries with an even lower standard of living than eastern European migrants. Thereby undercutting UK born people even more? Basically, the pull factor will be even greater from Africa, southern Asia etc than it ever was from Europe. I cannot see those who voted Leave on the immigration issue being too pleased about this?
Boris is introducing a points system so whether a low or medium skilled worker comes from Africa or Estonia there will be fewer of them, while we will take in more high skilled workers from those nations where needed.

I am sure those who voted Leave on the immigration issue, ie mainly low and medium skilled workers, will be delighted about this
Will this points system be run as efficiently as Universal Credit?

Universal Credit ensuring work pays so you no longer lose all your benefits by doing some part time work over 16 hours a week

Gallowgate · August 2019

HYUFD said:

No_Offence_Alan said:

HYUFD said:

The_Taxman said:

HYUFD said:

dixiedean said:
Fourth. Rate. Like the skills needed for plumbing and construction work apparently!
Sixth like the annual percentage cut in wages for British plumbers and construction workers diehard Remainers would ensure by keeping free movement from the EU for workers in those areas
Had you ever thought that if Boris has a more liberal immigration policy from the rest of the world, that, it might attract more people from countries with an even lower standard of living than eastern European migrants. Thereby undercutting UK born people even more? Basically, the pull factor will be even greater from Africa, southern Asia etc than it ever was from Europe. I cannot see those who voted Leave on the immigration issue being too pleased about this?
Boris is introducing a points system so whether a low or medium skilled worker comes from Africa or Estonia there will be fewer of them, while we will take in more high skilled workers from those nations where needed.

I am sure those who voted Leave on the immigration issue, ie mainly low and medium skilled workers, will be delighted about this

HYUFD said:

The_Taxman said:

HYUFD said:

dixiedean said:
Fourth. Rate. Like the skills needed for plumbing and construction work apparently!
Sixth like the annual percentage cut in wages for British plumbers and construction workers diehard Remainers would ensure by keeping free movement from the EU for workers in those areas
Had you ever thought that if Boris has a more liberal immigration policy from the rest of the world, that, it might attract more people from countries with an even lower standard of living than eastern European migrants. Thereby undercutting UK born people even more? Basically, the pull factor will be even greater from Africa, southern Asia etc than it ever was from Europe. I cannot see those who voted Leave on the immigration issue being too pleased about this?
Boris is introducing a points system so whether a low or medium skilled worker comes from Africa or Estonia there will be fewer of them, while we will take in more high skilled workers from those nations where needed.

I am sure those who voted Leave on the immigration issue, ie mainly low and medium skilled workers, will be delighted about this
Will this points system be run as efficiently as Universal Credit?
Universal Credit ensuring work pays so you no longer lose all your benefits by doing some part time work over 16 hours a week

Its like Tory buzzword bingo in here.

HYUFD · August 2019

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

CatMan said:

HYUFD said:

I am sure those who voted Leave on the immigration issue, ie mainly low and medium skilled workers, will be delighted about this
Yeah, until they go down the local supermarket and discover there are still brown skinned people there
Utter crap, most Leave voters are not racist, they just do not want to have to compete with an excess supply of immigrants for their jobs undercutting their wages.

EU migrants will just have to compete on the same terms as migrants from elsewhere to come here, not have an open door as they did with free movement
The old pensioners are worried about people undercutting their wages? What.

Working class C2s and DEs over 40 voted majority Leave (and indeed many younger than that) never mind just pensioners

surbiton19 · August 2019

Philip_Thompson said:

Gallowgate said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FF43 said:
On US trade deals.

John Howard then PM of Australia controversially brought his country into the Iraq war on the idea that Australia should stay close to America and this would unlock all sorts of trade deals. Howard then called in the favour and after some foot dragging on the part of the Americans got his FTA The Australia Productivity Commission subsequently reviewed the deal and determined it brought no net advantage to Australia, which did far better with another multilateral deal.

Why should we expect any FTA with the US not to leave us actually worse off? The president now dislikes any arrangement that doesn't give the US an egregious advantage, unlike Bush he doesn't owe us any favours. And our government seems DESPERATE to sign.
Meanwhile in the real world Australia has since then grown from strength to strength, while the UK has flatlined in Europe.

But yeah any time I say this its all natural resources, Australia has nothing else apparently.
Where is this magical growth going to come from after Brexit?
We could liberalise our regulations like Singapore.
We could sign trade deals with the rest of the world like America.

For starters.

…..We could open up our economy to guns, all kind of guns,...…….that will boost the economy no end. Plus our numbers will start to go down rapidly, thereby boosting per capita income.

dixiedean · August 2019

Drutt said:
On topic, is it the PM/LOTO 'best PM' margin or the raw approval numbers that are the best indication of electoral success? C'mon, someone on here must keep a spreadsheet.

On the Boris-headhunting-overseas scientists point, it's always seemed self-evident to me that a mature economy should treat immigration the same way a business should treat recruitment. Establish the nature, size and shape of the shortfall you have, seek applications, select from applicants.

Assuming (and this may be a bit of a reach) that the electorate agrees broadly with the Gov view of 'recruitment' need, nobody resents the new kid as a freeloader, easing community harmony to boot.

Indeed so. What evidence do we have that this will be done fairly, efficiently and competently? Besides, I was labouring under the misapprehension that the Tories believed the market, not the Nationalised Immigration Board, to be the best allocator of resources.

Philip_Thompson · August 2019

Gallowgate said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Gallowgate said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FF43 said:
On US trade deals.

John Howard then PM of Australia controversially brought his country into the Iraq war on the idea that Australia should stay close to America and this would unlock all sorts of trade deals. Howard then called in the favour and after some foot dragging on the part of the Americans got his FTA The Australia Productivity Commission subsequently reviewed the deal and determined it brought no net advantage to Australia, which did far better with another multilateral deal.

Why should we expect any FTA with the US not to leave us actually worse off? The president now dislikes any arrangement that doesn't give the US an egregious advantage, unlike Bush he doesn't owe us any favours. And our government seems DESPERATE to sign.
Meanwhile in the real world Australia has since then grown from strength to strength, while the UK has flatlined in Europe.

But yeah any time I say this its all natural resources, Australia has nothing else apparently.
Where is this magical growth going to come from after Brexit?
We could liberalise our regulations like Singapore.
We could sign trade deals with the rest of the world like America.

For starters.
Why will signing a FTA with America make any difference to our growth? American companies already trade with Britain. It isn’t a vast new market.

Why does have an FTA with Europe make any difference to our growth? Non-EU companies already trade with Europe.

Pot/kettle nonsense that.

Endillion · August 2019

On topic, Johnson's ratings are somewhat hampered by the general mistrust of politicians, in no small part helped along by the godawful mess his predecessor made of her last year or so in office.

In other news, I'm not convinced that bar chart is particularly informative.

Sean_F · August 2019

Gallowgate said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FF43 said:
On US trade deals.

John Howard then PM of Australia controversially brought his country into the Iraq war on the idea that Australia should stay close to America and this would unlock all sorts of trade deals. Howard then called in the favour and after some foot dragging on the part of the Americans got his FTA The Australia Productivity Commission subsequently reviewed the deal and determined it brought no net advantage to Australia, which did far better with another multilateral deal.

Why should we expect any FTA with the US not to leave us actually worse off? The president now dislikes any arrangement that doesn't give the US an egregious advantage, unlike Bush he doesn't owe us any favours. And our government seems DESPERATE to sign.
Meanwhile in the real world Australia has since then grown from strength to strength, while the UK has flatlined in Europe.

But yeah any time I say this its all natural resources, Australia has nothing else apparently.
Where is this magical growth going to come from after Brexit?

Economic growth is the norm. It didn't begin with us entering the EU in 1973, nor will it end with us leaving it.

Philip_Thompson · August 2019

HYUFD said:
Universal Credit ensuring work pays so you no longer lose all your benefits by doing some part time work over 16 hours a week

Which is a key part of the reason why we have record employment now.

What a surprise that making work pay leads to more people choosing to work. Funny that!

Gallowgate · August 2019

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

CatMan said:

HYUFD said:

I am sure those who voted Leave on the immigration issue, ie mainly low and medium skilled workers, will be delighted about this
Yeah, until they go down the local supermarket and discover there are still brown skinned people there
Utter crap, most Leave voters are not racist, they just do not want to have to compete with an excess supply of immigrants for their jobs undercutting their wages.

EU migrants will just have to compete on the same terms as migrants from elsewhere to come here, not have an open door as they did with free movement
The old pensioners are worried about people undercutting their wages? What.
Working class C2s and DEs over 40 voted majority Leave (and indeed many younger than that) never mind just pensioners

Even C2s and DEs from that generation have paid off mortgages with huge capital gains. To claim they will suddenly become very rich due to there being less Polish builders is ludicrous.

Philip_Thompson · August 2019

Sean_F said:

Gallowgate said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FF43 said:
On US trade deals.

John Howard then PM of Australia controversially brought his country into the Iraq war on the idea that Australia should stay close to America and this would unlock all sorts of trade deals. Howard then called in the favour and after some foot dragging on the part of the Americans got his FTA The Australia Productivity Commission subsequently reviewed the deal and determined it brought no net advantage to Australia, which did far better with another multilateral deal.

Why should we expect any FTA with the US not to leave us actually worse off? The president now dislikes any arrangement that doesn't give the US an egregious advantage, unlike Bush he doesn't owe us any favours. And our government seems DESPERATE to sign.
Meanwhile in the real world Australia has since then grown from strength to strength, while the UK has flatlined in Europe.

But yeah any time I say this its all natural resources, Australia has nothing else apparently.
Where is this magical growth going to come from after Brexit?
Economic growth is the norm. It didn't begin with us entering the EU in 1973, nor will it end with us leaving it.

But it did slow down after we entered the EU in 1993.

Relative to the rest of the world we have stagnated during the last 26 years.

HYUFD · August 2019

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

The_Taxman said:
Personally, I could not care less who comes into the country as long as they are not criminals that will attack, steal or defraud people. However, I helped an old lady today who voted for Brexit and she said that she was aware that the economy might not perform as well "but at least the immigrants will go home". I told her she was wrong on this and instead of European immigrants, more would come from elsewhere in the world. She changed the subject....
I'm glad she's wrong, aren't you? I'm also glad Boris has dropped the tens of thousands pledge and liberalised migration we need.

It doesn't mean that our old system wasn't a mess. I can see no reason to justify turning away the best and brightest while allowing uncapped low skilled migration. Can you justify it?
No, because all high earning diehard Remainers do is yell 'racist' at anyone who suggests an immigration system based on skills needed rather than an open door
It is the young who have to compete for these jobs and it is the young who voted overwhelmingly for Remain.

46% of C2s aged 18-34 voted Leave as did 44% of 18-34 DEs, 65% of 35 to 54 C2s and 64% of 35 to 54 DEs voted Leave, it was only middle class young voters who voted overwhelmingly Remain, working class young voters split almost evenly and working class middle aged voters voted strongly for Leave

https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-2016-eu-referendum

ReggieCide · August 2019

You don't like him much, do you Mike

Gallowgate · August 2019

Philip_Thompson said:

Gallowgate said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Gallowgate said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FF43 said:
On US trade deals.

John Howard then PM of Australia controversially brought his country into the Iraq war on the idea that Australia should stay close to America and this would unlock all sorts of trade deals. Howard then called in the favour and after some foot dragging on the part of the Americans got his FTA The Australia Productivity Commission subsequently reviewed the deal and determined it brought no net advantage to Australia, which did far better with another multilateral deal.

Why should we expect any FTA with the US not to leave us actually worse off? The president now dislikes any arrangement that doesn't give the US an egregious advantage, unlike Bush he doesn't owe us any favours. And our government seems DESPERATE to sign.
Meanwhile in the real world Australia has since then grown from strength to strength, while the UK has flatlined in Europe.

But yeah any time I say this its all natural resources, Australia has nothing else apparently.
Where is this magical growth going to come from after Brexit?
We could liberalise our regulations like Singapore.
We could sign trade deals with the rest of the world like America.

For starters.
Why will signing a FTA with America make any difference to our growth? American companies already trade with Britain. It isn’t a vast new market.
Why does have an FTA with Europe make any difference to our growth? Non-EU companies already trade with Europe.

Pot/kettle nonsense that.

The EU is much more than a FTA agreement.

rottenborough · August 2019

Can't say they all look that interested to be honest:

https://twitter.com/Think_Become/status/1159586707492282368

Sean_F · August 2019

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

CatMan said:

HYUFD said:

I am sure those who voted Leave on the immigration issue, ie mainly low and medium skilled workers, will be delighted about this
Yeah, until they go down the local supermarket and discover there are still brown skinned people there
Utter crap, most Leave voters are not racist, they just do not want to have to compete with an excess supply of immigrants for their jobs undercutting their wages.

EU migrants will just have to compete on the same terms as migrants from elsewhere to come here, not have an open door as they did with free movement
The old pensioners are worried about people undercutting their wages? What.
Working class C2s and DEs over 40 voted majority Leave (and indeed many younger than that) never mind just pensioners
Even C2s and DEs from that generation have paid off mortgages with huge capital gains. To claim they will suddenly become very rich due to there being less Polish builders is ludicrous.

Wages in construction and agriculture do seem to have increased markedly since 2016. Whether that's good or bad depends on whether you're receiving the wages or paying them.

HYUFD · August 2019

Philip_Thompson said:

HYUFD said:
Universal Credit ensuring work pays so you no longer lose all your benefits by doing some part time work over 16 hours a week
Which is a key part of the reason why we have record employment now.

What a surprise that making work pay leads to more people choosing to work. Funny that!

Exactly

Gallowgate · August 2019

Sean_F said:

Gallowgate said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FF43 said:
On US trade deals.

John Howard then PM of Australia controversially brought his country into the Iraq war on the idea that Australia should stay close to America and this would unlock all sorts of trade deals. Howard then called in the favour and after some foot dragging on the part of the Americans got his FTA The Australia Productivity Commission subsequently reviewed the deal and determined it brought no net advantage to Australia, which did far better with another multilateral deal.

Why should we expect any FTA with the US not to leave us actually worse off? The president now dislikes any arrangement that doesn't give the US an egregious advantage, unlike Bush he doesn't owe us any favours. And our government seems DESPERATE to sign.
Meanwhile in the real world Australia has since then grown from strength to strength, while the UK has flatlined in Europe.

But yeah any time I say this its all natural resources, Australia has nothing else apparently.
Where is this magical growth going to come from after Brexit?
Economic growth is the norm. It didn't begin with us entering the EU in 1973, nor will it end with us leaving it.

Yes?

Endillion · August 2019

Philip_Thompson said:

Gallowgate said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FF43 said:
On US trade deals.

John Howard then PM of Australia controversially brought his country into the Iraq war on the idea that Australia should stay close to America and this would unlock all sorts of trade deals. Howard then called in the favour and after some foot dragging on the part of the Americans got his FTA The Australia Productivity Commission subsequently reviewed the deal and determined it brought no net advantage to Australia, which did far better with another multilateral deal.

Why should we expect any FTA with the US not to leave us actually worse off? The president now dislikes any arrangement that doesn't give the US an egregious advantage, unlike Bush he doesn't owe us any favours. And our government seems DESPERATE to sign.
Meanwhile in the real world Australia has since then grown from strength to strength, while the UK has flatlined in Europe.

But yeah any time I say this its all natural resources, Australia has nothing else apparently.
Where is this magical growth going to come from after Brexit?
We could liberalise our regulations like Singapore.
We could sign trade deals with the rest of the world like America.

For starters.

We could invade France, like Britain.

rottenborough · August 2019

Except of course actually do something to stop No Deal...

https://twitter.com/CorbynASAP/status/1159580236381675521

Sean_F · August 2019

Philip_Thompson said:

Sean_F said:

Gallowgate said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FF43 said:
On US trade deals.

John Howard then PM of Australia controversially brought his country into the Iraq war on the idea that Australia should stay close to America and this would unlock all sorts of trade deals. Howard then called in the favour and after some foot dragging on the part of the Americans got his FTA The Australia Productivity Commission subsequently reviewed the deal and determined it brought no net advantage to Australia, which did far better with another multilateral deal.

Why should we expect any FTA with the US not to leave us actually worse off? The president now dislikes any arrangement that doesn't give the US an egregious advantage, unlike Bush he doesn't owe us any favours. And our government seems DESPERATE to sign.
Meanwhile in the real world Australia has since then grown from strength to strength, while the UK has flatlined in Europe.

But yeah any time I say this its all natural resources, Australia has nothing else apparently.
Where is this magical growth going to come from after Brexit?
Economic growth is the norm. It didn't begin with us entering the EU in 1973, nor will it end with us leaving it.
But it did slow down after we entered the EU in 1993.

Relative to the rest of the world we have stagnated during the last 26 years.

I'd say the period 1950-2000 was a golden era, economically, for the West. Post 2000, not so much, though it's been a golden era for the East.

surbiton19 · August 2019

Richard_Nabavi said:
Boris is beginning to sound a bit plaintive:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/08/no-10-refuses-to-rule-out-election-shortly-after-31-october-brexit

Johnson wants to go to a GE, if allowed, first day in November, 7th or even 31st October to:
1. bask in the glory of achieving Brexit before the Brexiteers
2. before the shit hits the fan

Philip_Thompson · August 2019

dixiedean said:

Drutt said:
On topic, is it the PM/LOTO 'best PM' margin or the raw approval numbers that are the best indication of electoral success? C'mon, someone on here must keep a spreadsheet.

On the Boris-headhunting-overseas scientists point, it's always seemed self-evident to me that a mature economy should treat immigration the same way a business should treat recruitment. Establish the nature, size and shape of the shortfall you have, seek applications, select from applicants.

Assuming (and this may be a bit of a reach) that the electorate agrees broadly with the Gov view of 'recruitment' need, nobody resents the new kid as a freeloader, easing community harmony to boot.
Indeed so. What evidence do we have that this will be done fairly, efficiently and competently? Besides, I was labouring under the misapprehension that the Tories believed the market, not the Nationalised Immigration Board, to be the best allocator of resources.

I do believe in the market. I think there is a market-based way to solve this.

Set an income based threshold, perhaps say top 40 percentile of UK wages, and if a prospective migrant is getting a job with a salary over that threshold let them in. If they're not then don't.

It's just a starting point suggestion but is a market-based one. If there is high wages for the job then that would imply there is high demand/high skills in that role, while if it is a minimum wage role then there is no shortage or the employer wouldn't be paying minimum wage and no need to bring someone in for it.

Gallowgate · August 2019

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

The_Taxman said:
Personally, I could not care less who comes into the country as long as they are not criminals that will attack, steal or defraud people. However, I helped an old lady today who voted for Brexit and she said that she was aware that the economy might not perform as well "but at least the immigrants will go home". I told her she was wrong on this and instead of European immigrants, more would come from elsewhere in the world. She changed the subject....
I'm glad she's wrong, aren't you? I'm also glad Boris has dropped the tens of thousands pledge and liberalised migration we need.

It doesn't mean that our old system wasn't a mess. I can see no reason to justify turning away the best and brightest while allowing uncapped low skilled migration. Can you justify it?
No, because all high earning diehard Remainers do is yell 'racist' at anyone who suggests an immigration system based on skills needed rather than an open door
It is the young who have to compete for these jobs and it is the young who voted overwhelmingly for Remain.
46% of C2s aged 18-34 voted Leave as did 44% of 18-34 DEs, 65% of 35 to 54 C2s and 64% of 35 to 54 DEs voted Leave, it was only middle class young voters who voted overwhelmingly Remain, working class young voters split almost evenly and working class middle aged voters voted strongly for Leave

https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-2016-eu-referendum

Those statistics prove my point. A majority of 18-34 year olds in every social class voted to remain.

Drutt · August 2019

dixiedean said:

Drutt said:
On topic, is it the PM/LOTO 'best PM' margin or the raw approval numbers that are the best indication of electoral success? C'mon, someone on here must keep a spreadsheet.

On the Boris-headhunting-overseas scientists point, it's always seemed self-evident to me that a mature economy should treat immigration the same way a business should treat recruitment. Establish the nature, size and shape of the shortfall you have, seek applications, select from applicants.

Assuming (and this may be a bit of a reach) that the electorate agrees broadly with the Gov view of 'recruitment' need, nobody resents the new kid as a freeloader, easing community harmony to boot.
Indeed so. What evidence do we have that this will be done fairly, efficiently and competently? Besides, I was labouring under the misapprehension that the Tories believed the market, not the Nationalised Immigration Board, to be the best allocator of resources.

True, but 'employers tells NIB, NIB sets scheme' is closer to the market than 'EU27 free-for-all, everyone else wait for scraps'.

PClipp · August 2019

HYUFD said:
Given Boris leads Corbyn 39% to 19% as preferred PM with YouGov today amongst all voters (including even leading Corbyn 32% to 23% with 25 to 49 year olds, 30% to 24% in London and 31% to 28% in Scotland) I doubt he is too bothered
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/8i9x45cenq/TheTimes_190806_VI_Trackers_w.pdf

Almost anybody could come out ahead of Corbyn, MrHY. Do you think that even you couldn`t?

The problem that you Tories face is that now there are four nationwide parties in the running. It is no longer enough just to be preferable to Corbyn.

dixiedean · August 2019

HYUFD said:

No_Offence_Alan said:

HYUFD said:

The_Taxman said:

HYUFD said:

dixiedean said:
Fourth. Rate. Like the skills needed for plumbing and construction work apparently!
Sixth like the annual percentage cut in wages for British plumbers and construction workers diehard Remainers would ensure by keeping free movement from the EU for workers in those areas
Had you ever thought that if Boris has a more liberal immigration policy from the rest of the world, that, it might attract more people from countries with an even lower standard of living than eastern European migrants. Thereby undercutting UK born people even more? Basically, the pull factor will be even greater from Africa, southern Asia etc than it ever was from Europe. I cannot see those who voted Leave on the immigration issue being too pleased about this?
Boris is introducing a points system so whether a low or medium skilled worker comes from Africa or Estonia there will be fewer of them, while we will take in more high skilled workers from those nations where needed.

I am sure those who voted Leave on the immigration issue, ie mainly low and medium skilled workers, will be delighted about this

HYUFD said:

The_Taxman said:

HYUFD said:

dixiedean said:
Fourth. Rate. Like the skills needed for plumbing and construction work apparently!
Sixth like the annual percentage cut in wages for British plumbers and construction workers diehard Remainers would ensure by keeping free movement from the EU for workers in those areas
Had you ever thought that if Boris has a more liberal immigration policy from the rest of the world, that, it might attract more people from countries with an even lower standard of living than eastern European migrants. Thereby undercutting UK born people even more? Basically, the pull factor will be even greater from Africa, southern Asia etc than it ever was from Europe. I cannot see those who voted Leave on the immigration issue being too pleased about this?
Boris is introducing a points system so whether a low or medium skilled worker comes from Africa or Estonia there will be fewer of them, while we will take in more high skilled workers from those nations where needed.

I am sure those who voted Leave on the immigration issue, ie mainly low and medium skilled workers, will be delighted about this
Will this points system be run as efficiently as Universal Credit?
Universal Credit ensuring work pays so you no longer lose all your benefits by doing some part time work over 16 hours a week

You do understand UC incorporates WTC?

Philip_Thompson · August 2019

Gallowgate said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Gallowgate said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Gallowgate said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FF43 said:
On US trade deals.

John Howard then PM of Australia controversially brought his country into the Iraq war on the idea that Australia should stay close to America and this would unlock all sorts of trade deals. Howard then called in the favour and after some foot dragging on the part of the Americans got his FTA The Australia Productivity Commission subsequently reviewed the deal and determined it brought no net advantage to Australia, which did far better with another multilateral deal.

Why should we expect any FTA with the US not to leave us actually worse off? The president now dislikes any arrangement that doesn't give the US an egregious advantage, unlike Bush he doesn't owe us any favours. And our government seems DESPERATE to sign.
Meanwhile in the real world Australia has since then grown from strength to strength, while the UK has flatlined in Europe.

But yeah any time I say this its all natural resources, Australia has nothing else apparently.
Where is this magical growth going to come from after Brexit?
We could liberalise our regulations like Singapore.
We could sign trade deals with the rest of the world like America.

For starters.
Why will signing a FTA with America make any difference to our growth? American companies already trade with Britain. It isn’t a vast new market.
Why does have an FTA with Europe make any difference to our growth? Non-EU companies already trade with Europe.

Pot/kettle nonsense that.
The EU is much more than a FTA agreement.

Which is why we voted to Leave.

FF43 · August 2019

Philip_Thompson said:

FF43 said:
On US trade deals.

John Howard then PM of Australia controversially brought his country into the Iraq war on the idea that Australia should stay close to America and this would unlock all sorts of trade deals. Howard then called in the favour and after some foot dragging on the part of the Americans got his FTA The Australia Productivity Commission subsequently reviewed the deal and determined it brought no net advantage to Australia, which did far better with another multilateral deal.

Why should we expect any FTA with the US not to leave us actually worse off? The president now dislikes any arrangement that doesn't give the US an egregious advantage, unlike Bush he doesn't owe us any favours. And our government seems DESPERATE to sign.
Meanwhile in the real world Australia has since then grown from strength to strength, while the UK has flatlined in Europe.

But yeah any time I say this its all natural resources, Australia has nothing else apparently.

You can read the Australian Productivity Commission report on the FTA, if you like. It's online. Key point is that trade diversion means you lose as much you gain. So for example you can now sell bedsheets with no tariffs but you have to use American (or Australian) cottob to meet the content thresholds instead of the Egyptian cotton you used before, that was better quality and cheaper.

The APC were very clear, multilateral is the way to go for maximum benefit.

Gallowgate · August 2019

Philip_Thompson said:

Gallowgate said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Gallowgate said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Gallowgate said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FF43 said:
On US trade deals.

John Howard then PM of Australia controversially brought his country into the Iraq war on the idea that Australia should stay close to America and this would unlock all sorts of trade deals. Howard then called in the favour and after some foot dragging on the part of the Americans got his FTA The Australia Productivity Commission subsequently reviewed the deal and determined it brought no net advantage to Australia, which did far better with another multilateral deal.

Why should we expect any FTA with the US not to leave us actually worse off? The president now dislikes any arrangement that doesn't give the US an egregious advantage, unlike Bush he doesn't owe us any favours. And our government seems DESPERATE to sign.
Meanwhile in the real world Australia has since then grown from strength to strength, while the UK has flatlined in Europe.

But yeah any time I say this its all natural resources, Australia has nothing else apparently.
Where is this magical growth going to come from after Brexit?
We could liberalise our regulations like Singapore.
We could sign trade deals with the rest of the world like America.

For starters.
Why will signing a FTA with America make any difference to our growth? American companies already trade with Britain. It isn’t a vast new market.
Why does have an FTA with Europe make any difference to our growth? Non-EU companies already trade with Europe.

Pot/kettle nonsense that.
The EU is much more than a FTA agreement.
Which is why we voted to Leave.

No. We voted to leave for all sorts of ridiculous reasons; most having nothing to do with the EU at all. It is you that is projecting.

Do you think your libertarian ideology has majority support in this country? Honestly?

ReggieCide · August 2019

Endillion said:
On topic, Johnson's ratings are somewhat hampered by the general mistrust of politicians, in no small part helped along by the godawful mess his predecessor made of her last year or so in office.

In other news, I'm not convinced that bar chart is particularly informative.

These kind of polls merely manipulate the gullible to grab a headline, some publicity, and some fame and a few bob (hopefully). Pollsters are the Prince Monolulus of politics.

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