politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Is Corbyn at risk from the mother of all political decapitatio

First like the LDs!

It would be as funny as hell to watch the Jezaster lose his seat. It would be even funnier than the time Boris gave the wrong side the points on Have I Got News For You. And indeed, it might be the only way of getting rid of him.

But the odds of it happening are truly astronomical.

QTWTAIN. I lived there for a long time, quite recently. The seat is full of Labour loyalists (not all of them left-wing by any means) plus non-Labour people (including Tories) who like Jeremy as their MP.

A friend tweets:

https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/1157539957650706432?s=20

NickPalmer said:

QTWTAIN. I lived there for a long time, quite recently. The seat is full of Labour loyalists (not all of them left-wing by any means) plus non-Labour people (including Tories) who like Jeremy as their MP.

Tories who like Corbyn as their MP .. delusional.

SquareRoot said:

NickPalmer said:

QTWTAIN. I lived there for a long time, quite recently. The seat is full of Labour loyalists (not all of them left-wing by any means) plus non-Labour people (including Tories) who like Jeremy as their MP.

Tories who like Corbyn as their MP .. delusional.

Oh come on. He's the best - possibly the only real - asset the Tories have right now.

tlg86 said:

peterbriffa said:

If Tony Blair had any balls he’d stand there as an independent.

And lose his deposit.

I think he could just about afford it.

SquareRoot said:

NickPalmer said:

QTWTAIN. I lived there for a long time, quite recently. The seat is full of Labour loyalists (not all of them left-wing by any means) plus non-Labour people (including Tories) who like Jeremy as their MP.

Tories who like Corbyn as their MP .. delusional.

No - I tried to get them to vote Labour in local elections - not a chance. But voters who are fond of their local MP and vote for them are more common than political people think, especially as few people are that solidly identified with one party any more. The view that Parliament is full of idiots except for the one who you happen to know is very common.

Interesting thread Herders. Thanks.

On a related note I wonder what the Portillo Moment" of the next election will be? Clearly that depends on the general election date but if we have an October/November poll I think my shortlist would be :

Amber Rudd - Hastings.
Denis Skinner - Bolsover
Steve Baker - Wycombe

'the Lib Dems have least to fear of the GB-wide parties from the SNP.'

Hooray, we're in the Premier League now!

I know the Ruth love-in is but a distant memory, that she'll have a list seat as a back up, she's only leader of a sub branch (currently), an election is some distance away and it's 'only' Holyrood, but Davidson is the leader most likely to get a humiliating order of the boot from her constituency.

IanB2 said:

Looks like no IMF job for Osbo, provided they can tweak the age rules to let the Bulgarian take the job.

Sucking up to Johnson turned out to be a waste of time then.

SquareRoot said:

Gallowgate said:

Just sitting in Maidstone services after braving the M25 for the first time in years. I have to say that you southerners are useless at lane discipline...

The M25 is a really dangerous road, late lane changers at exits is the cause of many accidents. People trying to bully people off lane by driving too close.. I only travel on it if I have to and then pre or post rush hour.

I doubt the Midnight Club M25 record of 52 minutes is ever going to beaten now due to the proliferation of cameras and traffic at all times. My personal best is 1 hour 7 minutes in an E90 M3 and that was running on vapours when I pulled in to the Clacket Lane services.

NickPalmer said:

SquareRoot said:

NickPalmer said:

QTWTAIN. I lived there for a long time, quite recently. The seat is full of Labour loyalists (not all of them left-wing by any means) plus non-Labour people (including Tories) who like Jeremy as their MP.

Tories who like Corbyn as their MP .. delusional.

No - I tried to get them to vote Labour in local elections - not a chance. But voters who are fond of their local MP and vote for them are more common than political people think, especially as few people are that solidly identified with one party any more. The view that Parliament is full of idiots except for the one who you happen to know is very common.

Does he have time these days to be a good local MP? Takes an awful lot of casework and keeping in touch with the voters to keep that kind of positivity, as you no doubt well know from Broxtowe.

NickPalmer said:

SquareRoot said:

NickPalmer said:

QTWTAIN. I lived there for a long time, quite recently. The seat is full of Labour loyalists (not all of them left-wing by any means) plus non-Labour people (including Tories) who like Jeremy as their MP.

Tories who like Corbyn as their MP .. delusional.

No - I tried to get them to vote Labour in local elections - not a chance. But voters who are fond of their local MP and vote for them are more common than political people think, especially as few people are that solidly identified with one party any more. The view that Parliament is full of idiots except for the one who you happen to know is very common.

Yep. And people like having a "well known" person as their MP, particularly if they have met them and can name drop to their friends. It's why party leaders tend to get a boost. And why previous decapitation attempts have generally failed (without a strong favourable tide) and why Bozo is, sadly, probably safe.

Sorry to read that Geoff Tordoff has died. In the 60s he was one of the (slightly) older Liberals who connected with the Young Liberals. And they respected him - he has been a Great Liberal.

I’m disappointed to see the Lib Dems have started actively campaigning in Uxbridge & South Ruislip. Splitting the anti-Boris vote makes it more likely he’ll hang on. (And I have a fiver on him not doing so...)

JackW said:

Interesting thread Herders. Thanks.

On a related note I wonder what the Portillo Moment" of the next election will be? Clearly that depends on the general election date but if we have an October/November poll I think my shortlist would be :

Amber Rudd - Hastings.
Denis Skinner - Bolsover
Steve Baker - Wycombe

JRM. It's "were you up for JRM?". No contest. he is today's Portillo. He just needs to lose.

Dura_Ace said:

SquareRoot said:

Gallowgate said:

Just sitting in Maidstone services after braving the M25 for the first time in years. I have to say that you southerners are useless at lane discipline...

The M25 is a really dangerous road, late lane changers at exits is the cause of many accidents. People trying to bully people off lane by driving too close.. I only travel on it if I have to and then pre or post rush hour.

I doubt the Midnight Club M25 record of 52 minutes is ever going to beaten now due to the proliferation of cameras and traffic at all times. My personal best is 1 hour 7 minutes in an E90 M3 and that was running on vapours when I pulled in to the Clacket Lane services.

Did you ever do Marble Arch to Cardiff Castle? My understanding is that the record was pared down close to an hour until the fuzz got wise to what was going on.

rottenborough said:

NickPalmer said:

SquareRoot said:

NickPalmer said:

QTWTAIN. I lived there for a long time, quite recently. The seat is full of Labour loyalists (not all of them left-wing by any means) plus non-Labour people (including Tories) who like Jeremy as their MP.

Tories who like Corbyn as their MP .. delusional.

No - I tried to get them to vote Labour in local elections - not a chance. But voters who are fond of their local MP and vote for them are more common than political people think, especially as few people are that solidly identified with one party any more. The view that Parliament is full of idiots except for the one who you happen to know is very common.

Does he have time these days to be a good local MP? Takes an awful lot of casework and keeping in touch with the voters to keep that kind of positivity, as you no doubt well know from Broxtowe.

Rather too much time, I think. He is notorious for letting his surgeries go on and on and on. I went to one and took a book to be on the safe side - it lasted well over 4 hours, and he was still patiently giving each constituent all the time they seemed to want. Examples of local people who he has knocked himself out to help are legion. I can well imagine him turning up late for an NEC because he's talking to a local shopkeeper about the impact of rates.

London has very rapid turnover of residents in its seats. Since its voters change rapidly, its results could change dramatically. Islington North is safe enough but Islington South & Finsbury might be a real battle.

NickPalmer said:

rottenborough said:

NickPalmer said:

SquareRoot said:

NickPalmer said:

QTWTAIN. I lived there for a long time, quite recently. The seat is full of Labour loyalists (not all of them left-wing by any means) plus non-Labour people (including Tories) who like Jeremy as their MP.

Tories who like Corbyn as their MP .. delusional.

No - I tried to get them to vote Labour in local elections - not a chance. But voters who are fond of their local MP and vote for them are more common than political people think, especially as few people are that solidly identified with one party any more. The view that Parliament is full of idiots except for the one who you happen to know is very common.

Does he have time these days to be a good local MP? Takes an awful lot of casework and keeping in touch with the voters to keep that kind of positivity, as you no doubt well know from Broxtowe.

Rather too much time, I think. He is notorious for letting his surgeries go on and on and on. I went to one and took a book to be on the safe side - it lasted well over 4 hours, and he was still patiently giving each constituent all the time they seemed to want. Examples of local people who he has knocked himself out to help are legion. I can well imagine him turning up late for an NEC because he's talking to a local shopkeeper about the impact of rates.

I've heard lots of negative things about Corbyn, many of which are obviously true. But I've never heard anyone say he's a bad constituency MP.

IanB2 said:

Looks like no IMF job for Osbo, provided they can tweak the age rules to let the Bulgarian take the job.

A “rules based organisation” wants to “tweak the rules”. Odd that, I had been routinely assured it was impossible.....

IDS is now so unhinged he is equating No Deal Brexit to the Reformation:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/08/02/reformation-making-modern-britain-brexit-similar-opportunity/

El_Capitano said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/TheMendozaWoman/status/1157200762688004097

Editor of The Always Rational and Well-Sourced Canary Accuses Others of Hysteria Shocker

It is a tragedy that they are having to regroup, and slim down, as advertisers are unwilling to be associated with this excellent news source.

rottenborough said:

IDS is now so unhinged he is equating No Deal Brexit to the Reformation:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/08/02/reformation-making-modern-britain-brexit-similar-opportunity/

I’m sure that’s a metaphor JRM will love!

kle4 said:

What was the last decapitation strategy that truly worked? It feels hard to tell as sometimes big names go as part of tidal surges not especial effort.

Farage? I know he wasn't the incumbent, but given what went on specifically in that seat I'd say it qualifies.

Mr. kle4, Caesar?

The new home secretary, Priti Patel, has said she wants criminals to "literally feel terror" at the thought of breaking the law.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-49213743

Can non criminals think about it though?

alex. said:

Just believe.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-49209013

In fairness, he has the right idea. We do need fibre to socket cabling, and we need it sooner rather than later. If South Korea could do it 15 years ago, we should be able to in less than 15 years from now.

But if he doesn't provide the resources to do it quickly, his target is meaningless.

(I'm also baffled by these experts who think 5G will be easier than cabling in the Highlands of Scotland. Have they ever tried to make a phone call in Fort Augustus?)

alex. said:

Just believe.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-49209013

Boris looks like Fred Scuttle in that photo.

Do you exercise your perogative?
Only when it's slack.

ydoethur said:

alex. said:

Just believe.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-49209013

In fairness, he has the right idea. We do need fibre to socket cabling, and we need it sooner rather than later. If South Korea could do it 15 years ago, we should be able to in less than 15 years from now.

But if he doesn't provide the resources to do it quickly, his target is meaningless.

(I'm also baffled by these experts who think 5G will be easier than cabling in the Highlands of Scotland. Have they ever tried to make a phone call in Fort Augustus?)

I don't think it's easier - however fibre is equally uneconomic unless the community does large bits of the work for you as B4RN showed..

Since we are discussing swings and the potential for unusual results, I wanted to pick up a somewhat glib comment from HY FPT:

HYUFD said:

Not on UNS it does not, Flavible is an untested model

Because seat boundaries haven't changed for ages, it is possible to "test" UNS with previous GE results - since swings work both forwards and backwards (i.e. if UNS is correct, you can get back to the previous GE results by deducting the swing from the latest ones).

Running UNS (with a separate calc for Scotland) for the 2015 GE predicts a Tory majority of 64, compared to the actual outcome of 12. For the 2010 GE it predicts a Tory majority of 70, compared to the actual hung parliament.

In both cases the flaw is to understate the seats won by the LibDems and SNP (except 2015 for the latter) and to overstate Conservative seats and understate Labour. As a predictive tool for previous GEs it is poor - as we would expect given that it was designed for two-party politics whereas recent elections have been determined by the rise and fall of votes for other parties.

To imply that UNS is somehow a "tested model", as HY does, is a mistake. It's a broken model.

This is the flaw that Flavible are trying to overcome, using a battery of other data including local and Euro election and 2016 referendum results and demographics. It's true this is untested (although their B&R prediction was very close), and given the way their model works it cannot really be tested with previous GE results. Nevertheless plugging the 2010 vote shares into Flavible produces a result very much closer to the actual (including the Tories falling short of a majority), principally because it recognises that a significant shift in LibDem support will be anything but uniform

(the areas where the LDs are doing very well now in locals and Euros are broadly the same ones where they used to be strong but lost out the most in 2015/17)

Personally I prefer a model that is trying to overcome the flaws in another that is obviously broken. Until further data suggests otherwise.

NickPalmer said:

QTWTAIN. I lived there for a long time, quite recently. The seat is full of Labour loyalists (not all of them left-wing by any means) plus non-Labour people (including Tories) who like Jeremy as their MP.

Yes, I wasn't being entirely serious re Corbyn (and indeed, downplay the idea three times in the article).

But - and I think this worth noting - I think many aspects of Corbyn's situation illustrate an important point (even if one which might not apply to him for other reasons), and we could potentially see shock Labour losses in an autumn election similar in reverse to their gains in Canterbury or Kensington, where the demographics/politics of an area makes them susceptible to a very large swing against.

While Corbyn is unlikely to lose his seat, the broader truth is that the LD revival is going to hit Labour hardest in London. If not in Islington North, there could be some really big majorities overturned elsewhere. It's why the LDs are also right to put their efforts into Uxbridge. The anger at both traditional main parties in this city is palpable.

IanB2 said:

Since we are discussing swings and the potential for unusual results, I wanted to pick up a somewhat glib comment from HY FPT:

HYUFD said:

Not on UNS it does not, Flavible is an untested model

Because seat boundaries haven't changed for ages, it is possible to "test" UNS with previous GE results - since swings work both forwards and backwards (i.e. if UNS is correct, you can get back to the previous GE results by deducting the swing from the latest ones).

Running UNS (with a separate calc for Scotland) for the 2015 GE predicts a Tory majority of 64, compared to the actual outcome of 12. For the 2010 GE it predicts a Tory majority of 70, compared to the actual hung parliament.

In both cases the flaw is to understate the seats won by the LibDems and SNP (except 2015 for the latter) and to overstate Conservative seats and understate Labour. As a predictive tool for previous GEs it is poor - as we would expect given that it was designed for two-party politics whereas recent elections have been determined by the rise and fall of votes for other parties.

To imply that UNS is somehow a "tested model", as HY does, is a mistake. It's a broken model.

This is the flaw that Flavible are trying to overcome, using a battery of other data including local and Euro election and 2016 referendum results and demographics. It's true this is untested (although their B&R prediction was very close), and given the way their model works it cannot really be tested with previous GE results. Nevertheless plugging the 2010 vote shares into Flavible produces a result very much closer to the actual (including the Tories falling short of a majority), principally because it recognises that a significant shift in LibDem support will be anything but uniform

(the areas where the LDs are doing very well now in locals and Euros are broadly the same ones where they used to be strong but lost out the most in 2015/17)

Personally I prefer a model that is trying to overcome the flaws in another that is obviously broken. Until further data suggests otherwise.

Which is the model that is failing us, Mr IanB2? Is is Electoral Calculus by any chance?

ydoethur said:

IanB2 said:

NickPalmer said:

SquareRoot said:

NickPalmer said:

QTWTAIN. I lived there for a long time, quite recently. The seat is full of Labour loyalists (not all of them left-wing by any means) plus non-Labour people (including Tories) who like Jeremy as their MP.

Tories who like Corbyn as their MP .. delusional.

No - I tried to get them to vote Labour in local elections - not a chance. But voters who are fond of their local MP and vote for them are more common than political people think, especially as few people are that solidly identified with one party any more. The view that Parliament is full of idiots except for the one who you happen to know is very common.

Yep. And people like having a "well known" person as their MP, particularly if they have met them and can name drop to their friends. It's why party leaders tend to get a boost. And why previous decapitation attempts have generally failed (without a strong favourable tide) and why Bozo is, sadly, probably safe.

I think David Trimble was the last leader of a UK political party to lose his seat in the Commons. But who was the last leader of a UK-wide party to do so? Was it Archibald Sinclair in 1945 or has there been one since?

Both Salmond and Angus Robertson weren't overall leaders of the party at the time (2017) but one was the leader in the Commons and the other a very long-serving former member. Certainly worth a mention.

david_herdson said:

NickPalmer said:

QTWTAIN. I lived there for a long time, quite recently. The seat is full of Labour loyalists (not all of them left-wing by any means) plus non-Labour people (including Tories) who like Jeremy as their MP.

Yes, I wasn't being entirely serious re Corbyn (and indeed, downplay the idea three times in the article).

But - and I think this worth noting - I think many aspects of Corbyn's situation illustrate an important point (even if one which might not apply to him for other reasons), and we could potentially see shock Labour losses in an autumn election similar in reverse to their gains in Canterbury or Kensington, where the demographics/politics of an area makes them susceptible to a very large swing against.

With that in mind, Hornsey and Wood Green is well worth watching. There's also an entirely useless Momentum Council in power in Haringey now to spice things up even further. Hampstead and Kilburn might also be a vulnerable longshot.

Peter_the_Punter said:

Dura_Ace said:

SquareRoot said:

Gallowgate said:

Just sitting in Maidstone services after braving the M25 for the first time in years. I have to say that you southerners are useless at lane discipline...

The M25 is a really dangerous road, late lane changers at exits is the cause of many accidents. People trying to bully people off lane by driving too close.. I only travel on it if I have to and then pre or post rush hour.

I doubt the Midnight Club M25 record of 52 minutes is ever going to beaten now due to the proliferation of cameras and traffic at all times. My personal best is 1 hour 7 minutes in an E90 M3 and that was running on vapours when I pulled in to the Clacket Lane services.

Did you ever do Marble Arch to Cardiff Castle? My understanding is that the record was pared down close to an hour until the fuzz got wise to what was going on.

That’s 151 miles. In under an hour?

Setting aside the real danger to everyone else and the recklessness etc, that’s got to be nigh on impossible even without traffic. Sure you don’t mean Chepstow castle?

david_herdson said:

NickPalmer said:

QTWTAIN. I lived there for a long time, quite recently. The seat is full of Labour loyalists (not all of them left-wing by any means) plus non-Labour people (including Tories) who like Jeremy as their MP.

Yes, I wasn't being entirely serious re Corbyn (and indeed, downplay the idea three times in the article).

But - and I think this worth noting - I think many aspects of Corbyn's situation illustrate an important point (even if one which might not apply to him for other reasons), and we could potentially see shock Labour losses in an autumn election similar in reverse to their gains in Canterbury or Kensington, where the demographics/politics of an area makes them susceptible to a very large swing against.

Yes - the swings in the national polls are so huge that they are bound to produce astonishing results in various places. That in my view is the main challenge to the Opposition parties - I think there are loads of voters who would readily vote for any of them if they felt they were the clear anti-Tory challenger and had a decent chance of unseating the Conservative MP, but it's going to be har dto work out who the main challenger is, amid a forest of leaflets with misleading bar charts and comparisons to diverse past elections.

I don't think a Remain alliance is all that realistic in terms of candidates actually standing down - the Greens in particular leave it entirely to their constituency parties, where a handful of determined people can insist on standing (which is what went wrong in Broxtowe in 2010). But an informal agreement on who's going to try harder in different places and a certain restraint in deliberatrely misleading bar charts where we know that someone else has a better chance is conceivable. I know from direct contact that that will happen in parts of the southeast, and it was already visible in the local elections if you looked hard enough.

ThomasNashe said:

While Corbyn is unlikely to lose his seat, the broader truth is that the LD revival is going to hit Labour hardest in London. If not in Islington North, there could be some really big majorities overturned elsewhere. It's why the LDs are also right to put their efforts into Uxbridge. The anger at both traditional main parties in this city is palpable.

More specifically, remainer London - so as well as the SW that the LibDems already hold, the places to watch are Camden, Islington, Haringey, Ealing, Merton, Southwark and Lambeth in particular. I'd also expect an uptick in the West London Boroughs although the LDs have very little presence on the ground in Westminster-Kensington-Hammersmith (or Wandsworth, unless Justine joins).

SouthamObserver said:

Interesting - but it's important to differentiate Islington North from Islington South. I lived in Islington North for many years and it has a very different demographic to the southern part of the borough. Corbyn's majority will go down - probably substantially, but it will be at least 10,000 to 15,000. Emily Thornberry, though, could be in a real battle. That may well explain why she is becoming more and more vocal about Brexit and anti-Semitism. Her focus now is not on the leadership, but shoring up her seat.

I lived in Archway (Islington North) from 98 to 2003 before moving down to Angel (Islington South) for a few years so Jezza was my MP for a bit. In fact I voted for him (shudders in shame) in 2001. I would agree with your analysis save that Islington North is gentrifying rapidly. The horrible Archway Tower over the Station has been given a facelift and is now fancy flats with a great view of the City. Even before I left estate agents were tentatively calling it “Highgate Slopes” (didn’t stick) but even so the area’s character is changing as it is squeezed between affluent areas to its north and south that would, to my mind, be prime LD remainer territory.

IanB2 said:

ThomasNashe said:

While Corbyn is unlikely to lose his seat, the broader truth is that the LD revival is going to hit Labour hardest in London. If not in Islington North, there could be some really big majorities overturned elsewhere. It's why the LDs are also right to put their efforts into Uxbridge. The anger at both traditional main parties in this city is palpable.

More specifically, remainer London - so as well as the SW that the LibDems already hold, the places to watch are Camden, Islington, Haringey, Ealing, Merton, Southwark and Lambeth in particular. I'd also expect an uptick in the West London Boroughs although the LDs have very little presence on the ground in Westminster-Kensington-Hammersmith (or Wandsworth, unless Justine joins).

Starmer is safe in Holborn and St Pancras, Tulip Siddiqi shoud be nervous in Hampstead and Kilburn. Lammy is fine in Tottenham, but even with a huge majority the Labour MP for Wood Green & Hornsey (can't remember her name) should definitely be looking over her shoulder.

DougSeal said:

SouthamObserver said:

Interesting - but it's important to differentiate Islington North from Islington South. I lived in Islington North for many years and it has a very different demographic to the southern part of the borough. Corbyn's majority will go down - probably substantially, but it will be at least 10,000 to 15,000. Emily Thornberry, though, could be in a real battle. That may well explain why she is becoming more and more vocal about Brexit and anti-Semitism. Her focus now is not on the leadership, but shoring up her seat.

I lived in Archway (Islington North) from 98 to 2003 before moving down to Angel (Islington South) for a few years so Jezza was my MP for a bit. In fact I voted for him (shudders in shame) in 2001. I would agree with your analysis save that Islington North is gentrifying rapidly. The horrible Archway Tower over the Station has been given a facelift and is now fancy flats with a great view of the City. Even before I left estate agents were tentatively calling it “Highgate Slopes” (didn’t stick) but even so the area’s character is changing as it is squeezed between affluent areas to its north and south that would, to my mind, be prime LD remainer territory.

I was in Archway too - St John's Way. We must have been neighbours! Then I moved a bit further along to a place just off Hornsey Road. There is a lot of gentrification, but there are also a huge number of council places still and large numbers of youngish renters. Corbyn's majority will definitely go down, but it will still be large, I think.

IanB2 said:

ThomasNashe said:

While Corbyn is unlikely to lose his seat, the broader truth is that the LD revival is going to hit Labour hardest in London. If not in Islington North, there could be some really big majorities overturned elsewhere. It's why the LDs are also right to put their efforts into Uxbridge. The anger at both traditional main parties in this city is palpable.

More specifically, remainer London - so as well as the SW that the LibDems already hold, the places to watch are Camden, Islington, Haringey, Ealing, Merton, Southwark and Lambeth in particular. I'd also expect an uptick in the West London Boroughs although the LDs have very little presence on the ground in Westminster-Kensington-Hammersmith (or Wandsworth, unless Justine joins).

LibDems could step aside in favour of the Greens in Westminster, Kensington, Hammersmith and Putney in return for Vauxhall, Wimbledon ...

IanB2 said:

ThomasNashe said:

While Corbyn is unlikely to lose his seat, the broader truth is that the LD revival is going to hit Labour hardest in London. If not in Islington North, there could be some really big majorities overturned elsewhere. It's why the LDs are also right to put their efforts into Uxbridge. The anger at both traditional main parties in this city is palpable.

More specifically, remainer London - so as well as the SW that the LibDems already hold, the places to watch are Camden, Islington, Haringey, Ealing, Merton, Southwark and Lambeth in particular. I'd also expect an uptick in the West London Boroughs although the LDs have very little presence on the ground in Westminster-Kensington-Hammersmith (or Wandsworth, unless Justine joins).

I think Vauxhall could also be worth watching. Kate Hoey won't be the (Labour) candidate, but I suspect there may be a lot of residual anger that the Labour Party - in one of the most Remain seats in the country - saddled them with a Brexit Party MP.

IanB2 said:

rcs1000 said:

Swindon_Addick said:

We can be fairly confident that all major parties will lose one or more high-profile MPs next time round, due to how very different the polls are, but there's another good reason why this won't happen to Corbyn, in addition to those in the article and stated in the comments. It would be a ridiculous waste of resources for the Lib Dems. They have an opportunity to win a historic number of seats. They would be crazy to put effort into such a long-shot. So this seat only switches if the voters do it themselves, without significant encouragement from the Lib Dems.

I wasn't aware the LibDems had high profile MPs, especially with Grandpa Cable stepping down at the next election.

Farron is the one often predicted. Although with a counter-reaction to Brexit in rural areas, he might now be safer than it appears.

Is he standing? He has been so quiet since stopping being leader I would assume he has lost interest?

File in wishful thinking bullshit file.

noneoftheabove said:

IanB2 said:

rcs1000 said:

Swindon_Addick said:

We can be fairly confident that all major parties will lose one or more high-profile MPs next time round, due to how very different the polls are, but there's another good reason why this won't happen to Corbyn, in addition to those in the article and stated in the comments. It would be a ridiculous waste of resources for the Lib Dems. They have an opportunity to win a historic number of seats. They would be crazy to put effort into such a long-shot. So this seat only switches if the voters do it themselves, without significant encouragement from the Lib Dems.

I wasn't aware the LibDems had high profile MPs, especially with Grandpa Cable stepping down at the next election.

Farron is the one often predicted. Although with a counter-reaction to Brexit in rural areas, he might now be safer than it appears.

Is he standing? He has been so quiet since stopping being leader I would assume he has lost interest?

Surely Chukka is the high profile figure who may struggle?

SouthamObserver said:

IanB2 said:

ThomasNashe said:

While Corbyn is unlikely to lose his seat, the broader truth is that the LD revival is going to hit Labour hardest in London. If not in Islington North, there could be some really big majorities overturned elsewhere. It's why the LDs are also right to put their efforts into Uxbridge. The anger at both traditional main parties in this city is palpable.

More specifically, remainer London - so as well as the SW that the LibDems already hold, the places to watch are Camden, Islington, Haringey, Ealing, Merton, Southwark and Lambeth in particular. I'd also expect an uptick in the West London Boroughs although the LDs have very little presence on the ground in Westminster-Kensington-Hammersmith (or Wandsworth, unless Justine joins).

Starmer is safe in Holborn and St Pancras, Tulip Siddiqi shoud be nervous in Hampstead and Kilburn. Lammy is fine in Tottenham, but even with a huge majority the Labour MP for Wood Green & Hornsey (can't remember her name) should definitely be looking over her shoulder.

Johnson means LD can forget it imo.

Those on the left priority is stop Johnson No Deal

Only 1 party can do that.

Plus Swinson is crap Tory voting hypocrite.

rcs1000 said:

ydoethur said:

alex. said:

Just believe.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-49209013

In fairness, he has the right idea. We do need fibre to socket cabling, and we need it sooner rather than later. If South Korea could do it 15 years ago, we should be able to in less than 15 years from now.

But if he doesn't provide the resources to do it quickly, his target is meaningless.

(I'm also baffled by these experts who think 5G will be easier than cabling in the Highlands of Scotland. Have they ever tried to make a phone call in Fort Augustus?)

So, DSL.

You have DSL, I suspect.

And how DSL works is that the wire that runs between your house and (at the least) your local wiring cabinet is divided into two frequency bands. One is the regular frequencies your voice uses when you're talking. The rest is used for data. But this process of sectioning off certain frequencies for data and for voice is incredibly inefficient. It means that between you and your local exchange your voice is being carried as an inefficient analog signal, and then converted to digital, and then converted back again at the other end. And you have to make sure there are big frequency "gaps" to avoid cross-contamination.

If we simply got rid of the analog portion of the network, put ethernet sockets in homes, then we could massively simplify our networks, increase speeds dramatically, and do this all without digging up the streets to take fibre the last 100 yards. (We'd still want to do the digging up in dense urban areas... but in most towns and suburbia... why bother? Using the full frequency of twisted pair over 100 yards gets you about 2gig of bandwidth today, and that's only going to increase over time.)

Isn't this the Fibre to Cabinet solution that BT and others already roll out?