politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Today’s Populus 1pc LAB lead poll had a sharp increase in T
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Today’s Populus 1pc LAB lead poll had a sharp increase in Tory certainty to vote figures and a decline in LAB ones
Today’s Populus online poll sees the LAB lead down to just 1%. The raw number show LAb still with a big lead but the weighted ones, after the demographic and certainty calculations, the Tory deficit comes right down.
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We saw it with the first YouGov post Ed's announcement.
But there is a long term trend prior to this, a year ago, Lab were in the 40s.
They're approaching that infamous 35%.
But look at the leads with ICM, Mori and Populus. 3%. That's consistent.
FPT: cheers for those tips, Mr. Eagles. I can't see France winning. Even if they beat Ireland, England would have to lose to Italy, which has never happened in the tournament and seems unlikely to now.
Incidentally, my pre-qualifying piece is up here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2014/03/australia-pre-qualifying.html
I tipped Williams to top score at 5.5 yesterday, but this is looking rather ropey and I would not today recommend it. If, however, you think I've fluked my way to a good bet (this happened last year, with identical odds but for Ferrari to top score) it's now out to 7.5.
Meanwhile, a video emerged in which Mr Farage boasts about how he is paid more than a Goldman Sachs banker because he employs his wife as a secretary.
The video, which dates from 1999, shows Mr Farage saying that "everyone's a winner with Europe".
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/10696283/Nigel-Farage-denies-being-forced-out-of-marital-home-after-affair-claims.html
http://xkcd.com/552/
There is a tendency to look at polling movements on far too short term a basis. Occasionally events shift polls, but rarely.
If I were fingering an event that might have had an effect, I'd look at Ukraine. Foreign policy events favour incumbent leaders. But personally i'd see any closing (possible but unclear) as related to a longer term impact of the improving economy.
My hunch the air disappearance and the Pistorious trial will be more noticed
Interim report on the Co-op group:
http://www.co-operative.coop/PageFiles/989317209/Progress-Update-of-the-Independent-Governance-Review.pdf
From a skim, it seems fairly excoriating. Dos anyone know if this was meant to come out (phase 1 of the report is scheduled for the end of next month), or is a hurried reaction to Euan Sutherland's resignation?
Carthaginian Peace is a term that refers to the imposition of a very brutal 'peace' by completely crushing the enemy. It derives from the peace imposed on Carthage by Rome. After the Second Punic War, Carthage lost all its colonies, was forced to demilitarize, pay a constant tribute to Rome and could not enter war without Rome's permission. At the end of the Third Punic War the Romans systematically burned Carthage to the ground and enslaved its population.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carthaginian_peace
Incidentally, I saw Balls on the news. Asked by Nick Robinson about how the British public would feel about him (a man 'at the wheel' when the recession occurred) Balls replied that everyone in life got some things wrong and some things right.
Not sure that's a great line. Leaving aside the odium of Balls, not everybody in life costs their country hundreds of billions of pounds by giving us the worst recession in history. It sounds flippant.
Interesting book on the Jugurthine War and related matters reviewed here: http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/review-crisis-of-rome-jugurthine-and.html
I've backed the tories around 7/1 on Betfair a few months back and am looking for reasons to believe I haven't done my money! The logic was that the tories have won the last three, are more likely to vote and UKIP are looking a bit less attractive to moderates these days. I still think 7/1 is a decent price.
The conquest of Macedonia was really the last hurrah for the veterans of the Second Punic War.
"The LD week was topped off overnight with two gains in council by-elections – one in Canterbury and the other in Ludlow in Shropshire. The latter is the most interesting because the Lib Dems held the parliamentary seat from 2001 to 2005."
http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/03/14/for-the-first-week-in-a-very-long-time-three-different-pollsters-have-the-lds-in-third-and-ukip-in-fourth/
I think Canterbury was the most interesting one. UKIP went from nowhere to 18%, and the seat changed hands because the Conservatives lost more votes than their nearest challenger.
http://thepollshavenowclosed.blogspot.co.uk/2014/03/canterbury-barham-downs-result-libdem.html
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/canterbury/
That I think is going to be UKIP's most significant contribution to the next election. They're going to reduce the number of safe seats.
I hope that anticipating this, MPs in formerly safe seats are going to spend the last 12 months of this parliament trying very hard to represent voters they would in past have ignored.
I still think this is a very tricky budget politically. There is a real need to reduce the deficit so there is no real money about. Osborne will be looking for quite a big bang for quite small bucks and that is always tricky. All in it together is due another run out which is problematic as well.
He did well last year by skipping the gimmicks. I hope he has learned that lesson even if it makes the budget duller. At the moment, even politically, looking grown up and competent is more than enough given the choices available.
In all that time, I've noticed nothing about community engagement or charitable works. If they're doing them, they should make more of it.
Heck, Waitrose do more with their choose-where-to-put-your-token charitable nonsense. It's visible and quite in your face as you're given a token.
Oh, it was also annoying that North Baddesley had two Co-ops, neither of which would accept the membership card from the other. One was a Southern Co-op, the other a different one.
That's going to change next year. The Public Sector is going to take a big hit, with the first proper cuts implemented. All the fat has been cut, cost savings have all been implemented, there's not a lot more natural wastage to go. It has to be implemented over the next year, and then the 2 years after that.
That won't feed into the "Economy on the up" meme.
PS I get that there are sometimes political reasons for politicians to spend parliamentary time pretending to try to pass legislation they know doesn't actually do anything, but I think when they do it they should at least have to put some money in a jar for charity or something.
Sure, Some of the cuts won't be until after the GE, but they're hanging over us now.
They have to start implementation by this time next year
Oh...and they've both been making some very stupid announcements lately - such as Balls' promise to crank up spending and tax borrowing (nobbling pension tax deductions to fund 'guaranteed jobs' for the young). This scares the horses.
Perhaps Osborne will do something with the lowest stamp duty threshold. That would be popular, and chime in with the helping aspirers meme.
Not sure how much it might cost though.
It depends what he is talking about - when he says No Referendum, he takes a hit. When he says: "I'm going to clobber the energy ripoff merchants" he gets a boost. Really not that surprising is it? But some people seem desperate to believe the daydreams in their heads.
"Re the budget, the past budgets of 2007 and 2012 were praised on the day by the media.
But within a few short weeks and months they were being panned as the worst budgets since JackW was in short trousers and caused long term damage."
......................................................................
May I advise PBers that there is no truth that the sight of little JackW's childhood knees caused the Wall Street Crash and the Great Depression of the 1930's as inferred above.
Indeed it has been commented that decades later the sight of a shapely Scottish noble thigh in a revelatory bathing costume at the Wannsee Lake by the Berliner Yacht Club was the touch paper that led to the fall of the Berlin Wall and Communism.
The wages/property prices ratio is the coalition's biggest problem, I think.
That said, I notice that 250 tower blocks are due to spring up in the next decade in London alone, and they are mostly residential. That is a lot of property, especially if there's a slowdown in China and the interest from overseas wanes.
Don't they care what I think? (sniffs)
Baywatch star David Hasselhoff is griping that his role in reuniting East and West Germany has been overlooked. So what part, if any, did the hunk in trunks play in ending the Cold War?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/3465301.stm
and
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-2419618/David-Hasselhoff-returns-Berlin-nearly-25-years-famous-performance-Berlin-Wall.html
and
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/mar/19/david-hasselhoff-berlin-wall-fall
He is what William Shatner would be if William Shatner lacked humility.
Its going to be an interesting few years, to say the least.
BREAKING: Russia Is preparing to invade East Ukraine, Estonia says: http://bloom.bg/1lDkgRD :
Shudder - a vision that has left me shaken, but not stirred Mr Bond...!
As an aside, the data you post is also dire for Dave - in touch with ordinary people 6%. Boom!
I remember going to a club in the 90s where two girls were dressed like that, and they were actually nurses.
Nothing he's said or done since he became Labour leader has convinced me that he is going to be anything other than mediocre. Now, mediocre might be good enough, but is he the man to make the country a better place?
House prices are insanely high and my children will never be able to buy until i die, or they get a job as a banker at this rate. those in families with no property owned are doomed to rent forever. The transfer of wealth to banks and to the older generation from the young which house price inflation represents is perhaps the single biggest corrosive force in our country now. We'd all be so much better off in the long run if those under 40 weren't paying 40-50% of their incomes over to banks each month. Madness.
The whole Ponzi housing market stinks
If Benn was the man of the people he claimed to be why did he not become a miner,steelworker .factory hand.
Benn was privileged from the get go, as much a man of the people as the lad who runs North Korea.
Just what did he actually do to get this ridiculous reputation.?.
Sorry to hear that TFS. I had several episodes of threats in a 25 year stint with one large PLC. What helped me was to have a Plan B and a Plan C if I had to leave and also looked at how I might move sideways inside the organisation (and home) ahead of a change. Knowing what your minimum cash flow needed to survive also helps.
Sadly adding 1 million to the public payroll under the last Govt has made public finances unsustainable and I fear that worse things are to come for public sector workers whoever is in Govt. Same thing has happened in the private sector with empire building CEOs. Unsustainable job creation leads to a collapse and a lot of individual pain and stress.
He was a lot more than a "decent" father and husband by all accounts, he clearly inspired great affection among his supporters and he was consistent in his views (at least from the 1970s onwards), but he probably did more harm to the Labour party than anyone else since the war.
But, Cameron's communication team seem incapable of haresting the low hanging fruit.
She introduced me to Prof. Watkins, who finally made it possible for me to walk without pain. So I've a great deal to thank her for. Through a moment's inspiration and a bit of blagging, she changed my life.
That must be one of the great things about being a doctor, or indeed at the business end of healthcare: you can really change lives for the better.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cornwall-26577109
I'm not sure who are the biggest dummies, the torpedo or the crew ...
Interestingly, are there any current living UK politicians who would be afforded a funeral on the scale that she was given?
I would add, also: check the redundancy provisions carefully so you know your financial options. In some cases one has to wait and see what one is offered, but public sector redundancy provisions are often an integral part of the pension scheme and the pension scheme handbooks (often online) can be sued to work out a fairly good idea of what might be on offer.
Obviously too early to do that and I hope it will not come to that for you. But I remember a union rep commenting to me that she found that one of her biggest problems with dealing with redundancy was that people wouldn't sit down and look at their options in detail even if they knew their unit was being closed down - in her phrase they were like rabbits in headlights and it made it very much harder to help them.
Salmond would be a possibility for Scotland if he pulls off a win in the independence referendum.
Approximatley 5.5m people currently work in the public sector and some of them are going to lose their jobs. Many more are going to be asked to do more for no more money and even more still are going to feel under threat and concerned about their future. This is inevitable but it is not great politics.
http://www.ussiowa.org/general/html/willie_d.htm
But the situation in the SE and London is now getting silly in a traditionally British way and all government schemes to support the housing market need to be excluded from those areas. I will be amazed if that is not in the budget.
The No campaign likes to claim there will be no change to the status quo, and by implication no spending cuts in the event of a No - Mr Darling said a few days ago; "if Scotland was independent today we would have no option but to cut spending on services like schools and hospitals or put up taxes – or probably both. Today as part of the UK we don't have to do that." There are 2 ways to read that, of course, one being that he's not mentioning the cuts tomorrow ...
More finger trouble from Scotland: an RN warship up at the Cape Wrath ranges forgot there was a live shell in one of its guns, and fired it over the village of Durness. Or rather, they claim they did it deliberately ...
https://www.snp.org/media-centre/news/2002/jul/john-swinney-addresses-durness-public-meeting-re-rogue-shell
http://www.thefreelibrary.com/MEET+THE+FLINTSTONES;+Live+shell+just+missing+Scots+village+is+latest...-a088650057
Higher prices have stimulated exploding construction in London. 250 towers planned, mostly residential. If overseas demand cools, it's by no means out of the question property will cheapen relative to earnings.
But really he was not quite as principled as all that. As the story below illustrates:-
"If you have heard Tony Benn interviewed recently you will know that he is fond of saying there are five questions we should ask of any politician:
"What power have you got? Where did you get it from? In whose interests do you use it? To whom are you accountable? How do we get rid of you?'
Except that, as Oliver Kamm points out, that is not precisely what he said to Saddam.
It was more:
"I have 10 grandchildren and in my family there is English, Scottish, American, French, Irish, Jewish, Indian, Muslim blood, and for me politics is about their future, their survival. And I wonder whether you could say something yourself directly through this interview to the peace movement of the world that might help to advance the cause they have in mind?""
Say Hi to PtP and co from me if you are. And I hope your betting is going a damn sight better than mine !
Royal Irish Hussar and Alaivan for a poor start.