politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The standout moment of the 2nd Democratic debate and campaign

fpt

rcs1000 said:

My friends on Facebook and Twitter tell me Harris was the best, with Mayor Pete also doing well.

I liked Mayor Pete but he hasn't got it, he was weak on defence. He's got one serious vulnerability about policing, and the best he could do is "I couldn't get it done".

Very strong by Kamala but she also seems to have painted herself into the same "ban private health insurance" corner as Warren.

I know she's going after Democrats but there must be a lot of voters out there who don't want their health insurance compulsorily replaced with Medicare.

Kamala Harris is into 4.6 on Betfair for Democrat nominee but 11 for next president, which seems slightly out of whack. Trump is 2.24 for next president, so let us call it evens for both generic Democrat and generic Republican and work out doubles from there (note that bookmakers would not accept the double!).

Watching Kamala vs Trump debates would be real popcorn time!

Biden and Sanders need to be out out to pasture.

FPT: Boris policies per The Times:

- Raise NI threshold to £12,500 (cost £11bn)
- Raise 40p IT threshold to £80,000 (cost £9.6bn)
- Abolish Stamp Duty on all homes under £500k (cost not stated)
- Cut Stamp Duty rates on more expensive homes (cost not stated)
- Raise annual investment allowance from current £1m (cost not stated)
- Recruit 20,000 more police officers (cost not stated)

"At hustings in Bournemouth yesterday Mr Johnson said that he would be “very, very progressive” on taxation, adding: “I believe strongly in living within our means. But there is now some headroom. Look at what we did in London, where we massively expanded the living wage. We should be lifting thresholds for those on low incomes, helping them out of tax.”"

Whether all of the above is living within our means - well we'll have to see but it does seem a bit doubtful!

DecrepitJohnL said:

edmundintokyo said:

Here's Mayor Pete when faced with a somewhat difficult but entirely predictable question. He hasn't got it.

twitter.com/thehill/status/1144452863424229378

Mayor Pete might not have it but does he have time to get it? We've seen this before where many politicians turn out to be no good at debating or campaigning but it is a learned skill and they can improve with practice as the campaign runs its course. Compare early and late Hillary Clinton, for instance. Others never develop.

This is why Boris was wrong to duck the Channel 4 debate, which probably resulted in his poor showing at the BBC. Or compare and contrast Corbyn and May at the last election: Corbyn with 30 years' experience talking to crowds and May with none, and being tongue-tied in front of a dozen vetted Conservative activists.

edmundintokyo said:

He hasn't got it.

Yet.

There was one winner from that exchange in the thread header: Trump.

DecrepitJohnL said:

I've not watched either debate (life's too short) but reports are largely about Kamala Harris taking out Biden on race.

This contrasts with the first debate where the consensus was that Warren won on policy.

It suggests two different types of debate, so I'd not want to go all-in until seeing whether Warren can mix it and Harris can argue on policy. Likewise the others.

Trump did not win on policy, indeed Hillary too had detailed policy. Trump won by stoking fear and vague notions like Make America Great Again.

rcs1000 said:

edmundintokyo said:

fpt

rcs1000 said:

My friends on Facebook and Twitter tell me Harris was the best, with Mayor Pete also doing well.

I liked Mayor Pete but he hasn't got it, he was weak on defence. He's got one serious vulnerability about policing, and the best he could do is "I couldn't get it done".

When we kick out one person, we tend to replace them with their polar opposite.

Biden and Sanders - old, grumpy white men, are not the opposite of Trump.

Harris, Warren and Buttigieg are all, in their own ways, Trump's opposite.

I think this race could very quickly end up as Harris vs Warren vs Buttigieg vs AN Other.

As an aside, I think Beto O'Rourke is going to be either Harris or Warren's VP pick (assuming one of them wins the nomination).

I liked the mad hippie. It's the summer of love again.

Biden and Bennett both score a Trump "False" from the debate - with Biden getting a 'Misleading" to boot:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/27/us/politics/factcheck-democratic-debate.html?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur

Nigelb said:

Foxy said:

Watching Kamala vs Trump debates would be real popcorn time!

Biden and Sanders need to be out out to pasture.

Everyone was saying she’s boring last week.

Not me!

A long way to go though. This is a marathon not a sprint, and I cannot see Biden or Sanders going the distance.

I suspect that Marianne cannot last, but it is a pity:

https://twitter.com/latimes/status/1144462632662945793?s=19

Foxy said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

I've not watched either debate (life's too short) but reports are largely about Kamala Harris taking out Biden on race.

This contrasts with the first debate where the consensus was that Warren won on policy.

It suggests two different types of debate, so I'd not want to go all-in until seeing whether Warren can mix it and Harris can argue on policy. Likewise the others.

Trump did not win on policy, indeed Hillary too had detailed policy. Trump won by stoking fear and vague notions like Make America Great Again.

No, Trump won because Hillary's campaign was run by a bunch of muppets who made the same mistake against Trump as they'd made against Obama eight years earlier: not understanding the rules so they campaigned in all the wrong places, racking up huge majorities where they did not help, and losing on delegates.

edmundintokyo said:

Nigelb said:

Everyone was saying she’s boring last week.

TBF her twitter feed is far and away the dullest thing in the known universe.

I hope she doesn't win the nomination, because her house is just by my kids school, and the school run will be hell if the road (and it's the only road into the canyon) is crowded with reporters and secret service.

rcs1000 said:

edmundintokyo said:

Nigelb said:

Everyone was saying she’s boring last week.

TBF her twitter feed is far and away the dullest thing in the known universe.

I hope she doesn't win the nomination, because her house is just by my kids school, and the school run will be hell if the road (and it's the only road into the canyon) is crowded with reporters and secret service.

Forget the school run, get her "bussed in"

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Carlotta - I remember that in the noughties there were more uk in eu than vice verca - all the oldies in spain

The UK EU emigration picture is complicated. You have three categories of people:
1. UK citizens living in another EU country who are registered and known about and measurable.
2. UK citizens living in another EU country below the radar - there are a lot of these on the Costas and other parts of the Med and the Algarve, but how many no-one knows, for obvious reasons.
3. UK citizens who are resident in the UK but spend extended periods in the EU.

Brexit will not affect 1 (except, possibly, a No Deal). It will affect 2 and 3, and No Deal will bugger them. Overall, it’s impossible to know just how many Brits make use of FoM beyond holiday and business trips - or how many have aspirations to. It’s something we’ll understand much better post-Brexit.

The Corbynisation of the former Conservative and Unionist Party continues apace. This time, the hard right is after someone who backed May’s WA three times in Commons’ votes.
https://twitter.com/leaveeuofficial/status/1144201903980650496?s=21

Gallowgate said:

https://twitter.com/markgurman/status/1144479751995682816?s=21

Paging @TheScreamingEagles

Ive is blooming lucky that Jobs isn't in charge. Jobs' behaviour to those who deigned to leave 'his' company was appalling. Woz was a sadly classic example.

Steve Jobs was a really nasty piece of work - and the corporate culture of Apple embraced that nastiness. It's a shame that people lionise him.

Good morning, everyone.

Well, now I'm glad I put some money on this Harris lady (thanks to a tip from someone called *checks notes* Mike Smithson. Sounds like a smart fellow).

Harris has been my pick for months but, like some of the candidates here for the Tory leadership, I was getting worried about her lack of bite, the lack of vision and the heavy reliance on lawyer skills such as examining witnesses. She didn't seem to have much to say. If she is addressing that she will be in a good place.

I think that the strength of her ground operation in California, which is voting early this time, gives her a considerable advantage. Campaigning in any meaningful way there will be prohibitively expensive and sort out the wheat from the chaff. Although the media will no doubt focus on the traditional Iowa type States I think California will prove key and she has a big home advantage.

TheJezziah said:

Pulpstar said:

This might be an error but I've Just laid Harris at 7-2.

I don't like to go to far in predictions, usually hedge...

But if she is usually quite boring then I can't see why she wouldn't now revert to that, her good attack had specific circumstances related to her that made it powerful, this doesn't seem like something she can easily repeat in future debates.

How was she in the debate aside for her one big moment?

Dunno but the debates aren't the be all and end all I think. Polling, even at this stage matters.

As a hedge I'm backing her at 10+ in the presidential market.

4.5/10.5 is too big a gap right now there even though I think she'd be an incredibly weak Dem candidate.

SouthamObserver said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Carlotta - I remember that in the noughties there were more uk in eu than vice verca - all the oldies in spain

3. UK citizens who are resident in the UK but spend extended periods in the EU.

US Citizens (for example) can spend 90 days in the EU without a visa. Do you think a "no-deal" EU would offer UK citizens less?

If these people are resident in the UK, I doubt being limited to 90 day visits will be much of a hardship.

https://twitter.com/patrickwintour/status/1144486687239626752

TheJezziah said:

How was she in the debate aside for her one big moment?

Dull.

SouthamObserver said:

When No Deal kicks in it looks like far more UK exports will be subject to EU tariffs than vice versa.

Only because.....

https://twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1144165880340897797

Foxy said:

Nigelb said:

Foxy said:

Watching Kamala vs Trump debates would be real popcorn time!

Biden and Sanders need to be out out to pasture.

Everyone was saying she’s boring last week.

Not me!

A long way to go though. This is a marathon not a sprint, and I cannot see Biden or Sanders going the distance.

I suspect that Marianne cannot last, but it is a pity:

https://twitter.com/latimes/status/1144462632662945793?s=19

The answer was kinda pants

But she’s absolutely got into the core of Trump’s political MO. You identify the fear in people and you amplify it, before presenting yourself as the solution

JBriskinindyref2 said:

SouthamObserver said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Carlotta - I remember that in the noughties there were more uk in eu than vice verca - all the oldies in spain

The UK EU emigration picture is complicated. You have three categories of people:
1. UK citizens living in another EU country who are registered and known about and measurable.
2. UK citizens living in another EU country below the radar - there are a lot of these on the Costas and other parts of the Med and the Algarve, but how many no-one knows, for obvious reasons.
3. UK citizens who are resident in the UK but spend extended periods in the EU.

Brexit will not affect 1 (except, possibly, a No Deal). It will affect 2 and 3, and No Deal will bugger them. Overall, it’s impossible to know just how many Brits make use of FoM beyond holiday and business trips - or how many have aspirations to. It’s something we’ll understand much better post-Brexit.

I hope my little sis who should be getting a degree in German this year is not too disheartened. I ve always been ambivalent on brexit

This year is the first time in 10 years of language teaching that I am not preparing any students for the EU Commission language tests.

DecrepitJohnL said:

edmundintokyo said:

Here's Mayor Pete when faced with a somewhat difficult but entirely predictable question. He hasn't got it.

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1144452863424229378

Mayor Pete might not have it but does he have time to get it? We've seen this before where many politicians turn out to be no good at debating or campaigning but it is a learned skill and they can improve with practice as the campaign runs its course. Compare early and late Hillary Clinton, for instance. Others never develop.

I don't think people are going to forgive him for the response to the shooting in his town

SouthamObserver said:

CarlottaVance said:

SouthamObserver said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Carlotta - I remember that in the noughties there were more uk in eu than vice verca - all the oldies in spain

3. UK citizens who are resident in the UK but spend extended periods in the EU.

US Citizens (for example) can spend 90 days in the EU without a visa. Do you think a "no-deal" EU would offer UK citizens less?

If these people are resident in the UK, I doubt being limited to 90 day visits will be much of a hardship.

I think there are plenty of people who consider themselves UK resident and spend way more than 90 days a year in the EU.

They can spend 180 days a year in the EU (90 in any 180) - any more than that and they won't be UK resident.

SouthamObserver said:

CarlottaVance said:

SouthamObserver said:

When No Deal kicks in it looks like far more UK exports will be subject to EU tariffs than vice versa.

Only because.....

https://twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1144165880340897797

Yep - Johnson could reverse the current tariff plan and push prices up for consumers. Do you think he will?

And match the EU?

Who knows?

CarlottaVance said:

SouthamObserver said:

CarlottaVance said:

SouthamObserver said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Carlotta - I remember that in the noughties there were more uk in eu than vice verca - all the oldies in spain

3. UK citizens who are resident in the UK but spend extended periods in the EU.

US Citizens (for example) can spend 90 days in the EU without a visa. Do you think a "no-deal" EU would offer UK citizens less?

If these people are resident in the UK, I doubt being limited to 90 day visits will be much of a hardship.

I think there are plenty of people who consider themselves UK resident and spend way more than 90 days a year in the EU.

They can spend 180 days a year in the EU (90 in any 180) - any more than that and they won't be UK resident.

That might be what the rules say, but if they don't know those are the rules, and so don't declare those periods in the EU, who will know any different?

CarlottaVance said:

SouthamObserver said:

CarlottaVance said:

SouthamObserver said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Carlotta - I remember that in the noughties there were more uk in eu than vice verca - all the oldies in spain

3. UK citizens who are resident in the UK but spend extended periods in the EU.

US Citizens (for example) can spend 90 days in the EU without a visa. Do you think a "no-deal" EU would offer UK citizens less?

If these people are resident in the UK, I doubt being limited to 90 day visits will be much of a hardship.

I think there are plenty of people who consider themselves UK resident and spend way more than 90 days a year in the EU.

They can spend 180 days a year in the EU (90 in any 180) - any more than that and they won't be UK resident.

Not post-Brexit. That’s the point. Spending December to March on the Costa del Sol suddenly becomes a very big and complicated decision. It’s also one that will become subject to Spanish law on stays and benefits allowed to non-EU citizens.

Mr. Ref2, welcome to PB.

Judging when to lay is tricky.

I'm considering a comparable hedge by putting some on Boris at 4 for 50-60% of the vote and 2.5 for 60-70% (I'm considerable greener on Hunt than Boris and am thinking of trying to get a more balanced result).

SouthamObserver said:

CarlottaVance said:

SouthamObserver said:

CarlottaVance said:

SouthamObserver said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Carlotta - I remember that in the noughties there were more uk in eu than vice verca - all the oldies in spain

3. UK citizens who are resident in the UK but spend extended periods in the EU.

US Citizens (for example) can spend 90 days in the EU without a visa. Do you think a "no-deal" EU would offer UK citizens less?

If these people are resident in the UK, I doubt being limited to 90 day visits will be much of a hardship.

I think there are plenty of people who consider themselves UK resident and spend way more than 90 days a year in the EU.

They can spend 180 days a year in the EU (90 in any 180) - any more than that and they won't be UK resident.

Not post-Brexit.

You're assuming the EU will offer UK citizens less generous access than US, Australian, Mexican or Argentinian citizens?

Why?

They've said they will.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Ref2, welcome to PB.

Judging when to lay is tricky.

I'm considering a comparable hedge by putting some on Boris at 4 for 50-60% of the vote and 2.5 for 60-70% (I'm considerable greener on Hunt than Boris and am thinking of trying to get a more balanced result).

There's a non trivial chance he'll be on 70-80% as per the Yougov polling. Currently 50-80% is a 99.76% chance on the back side for Betfair.

Just back Boris in the Tory leader market at 1.15 till your greens are levelled up.

CarlottaVance said:

SouthamObserver said:

CarlottaVance said:

SouthamObserver said:

CarlottaVance said:

SouthamObserver said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Carlotta - I remember that in the noughties there were more uk in eu than vice verca - all the oldies in spain

3. UK citizens who are resident in the UK but spend extended periods in the EU.

US Citizens (for example) can spend 90 days in the EU without a visa. Do you think a "no-deal" EU would offer UK citizens less?

If these people are resident in the UK, I doubt being limited to 90 day visits will be much of a hardship.

I think there are plenty of people who consider themselves UK resident and spend way more than 90 days a year in the EU.

They can spend 180 days a year in the EU (90 in any 180) - any more than that and they won't be UK resident.

Not post-Brexit.

You're assuming the EU will offer UK citizens less generous access than US, Australian, Mexican or Argentinian citizens?

Why?

They've said they will.

December to March is longer than 90 days. I doubt we’ll get a worse deal than other third country citizens, but to get a better one we’ll need to offer better for EU citizens, too.

Completely OT. Anyone in Edinburgh to day? There's a film called 'Girl from Mogadishu' on at the Edinburgh film festival and I'm not able to get there but I would love a decent critique on it. (It's about FGM)

TUD?

Alistair said:

Frustratingly Harris was my early pick but I cashed out on her at a loss yesterday.

Superb timing by me.

Ugh that's annoying. I'm a bit annoyed I didn't level off my book before the debate now.

felix said:

CarlottaVance said:

SouthamObserver said:

CarlottaVance said:

SouthamObserver said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Carlotta - I remember that in the noughties there were more uk in eu than vice verca - all the oldies in spain

3. UK citizens who are resident in the UK but spend extended periods in the EU.

US Citizens (for example) can spend 90 days in the EU without a visa. Do you think a "no-deal" EU would offer UK citizens less?

If these people are resident in the UK, I doubt being limited to 90 day visits will be much of a hardship.

I think there are plenty of people who consider themselves UK resident and spend way more than 90 days a year in the EU.

They can spend 180 days a year in the EU (90 in any 180) - any more than that and they won't be UK resident.

Correct - although many slip under the radar on this rule. I'd be surprised if that changed much with regard to Spain. The Spanish government have already committed to leaving things much as they are.

Post Brexit they'll get their passports stamped on entry so "slipping under the radar" may no longer be an option.

Mr. ref2/Mr. Pulpstar, yeah, that's possible. But those are rubbish odds.

*sighs*

Well, I am green either way (notionally, at least, I did back a variety of others so I suspect I'm just barely green with Boris).

The fact-check report that Biden was actually lying when he said he hadn't opposed busing ("only busing imposed by the Department of Education") is pretty damaging. Harris does a great job of making it personal to her. I've never thought much about busing as it hasn't been an issue over here, but I really felt for her.

That said, we all tend to overrate the importance of single exchanges on the race in the medium term. Laying the favo(u)rite generally makes sense early on in crowded races.

SouthamObserver said:

IanB2 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/patrickwintour/status/1144486687239626752

Further evidence those who have worked with or for him can’t stand him

To be fair, insulting foreigners - and the French, in particular - is not exactly going to harm Johnson among those whose support he seeks.

Alas it reflects badly on the entire nation. The rest of the world will look aghast and say, ‘How could you elect this man?’ We can blather on about Tory membership but it will sound thin.