politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB moves to highest share of the year in tonight’s YouGov

TheScreamingEagles said:

Outlier or a beginning of a trend?

Rhetorical or rogatory?

Fascinating gender gap in Scotland.

16-24 year olds fluctuating a lot I see. Darn uncommitting youngsters.

Labour are going to walk it in 2015. Easiest win since 2001. (though not with such a large majority)

Jonathan said:

Fascinating gender gap in Scotland.

The voter turnout differential is also fascinating.

Wayne said:

OGH could hardly wait to get this latest YouGovJoke poll up on his ever increasing Left wing site .. Of course it's not an outlier though Labour are doing so much good at the moment . Let him have his little bit of excitement based on another joke YouGov pathetic poll taken in a phone box next to Labour HQ

No, he was expecting a ComRes poll this evening, then we found it was being held over until tomorrow evening, so he ran with this thread.

Wayne said:

OGH could hardly wait to get this latest YouGovJoke poll up on his ever increasing Left wing site .. Of course it's not an outlier though Labour are doing so much good at the moment . Let him have his little bit of excitement based on another joke YouGov pathetic poll taken in a phone box next to Labour HQ

Waynes World wins the Oscar for "How To Win Friends And Influence People"

Probably an outlier, but at the very least it confirms Harman Paedogeddon has had no effect whatsoever. I wonder if this will finally get the penny to drop for newspapers that they don't have anywhere near the influence they think they do. I won't count on it.

Ben Judah ‏@b_judah 1h

My point is proved. Stunning Guardian leak exposes Cameron is pushing to protect the city of London and not Ukraine. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/03/uk-seeks-russia-harm-city-london-document

Fop Chicken.

Socrates said:

kle4 said:

16-24 year olds fluctuating a lot I see. Darn uncommitting youngsters.

Labour are going to walk it in 2015. Easiest win since 2001. (though not with such a large majority)

It's a recipe for disillusion come 2016.

Maybe so, but Labour won't care. An easy win is an easy win, and every politician would take potential future problems over not winning.

BobaFett said:

@Avery

The slug swaps his barbiturates for cocaine!

Nah!

Compouter has just got the goalpost upside down.

Well the Daily Mail Front page

Child Porn: Number 10 aide arrested

Daily Mail U.K. ‏@DailyMailUK 1m

Tuesday's @DailyMailUK #MailFrontPages pic.twitter.com/rHX8HFoT1m

@NickPalmer is playdiplomacy.com down ?

Need to finalise orders for one of my games :E !

TheScreamingEagles said:

NickPalmer said:

To be honest, I don't believe this YG, nor the preceding one at 4 points. I don't think anything is happening in terms of voter intention at the moment: Labour is 5-6 ahead and has been for ages. Our daily analysis is like staring at roulette table results, trying to work out the pattern and missing the fact that there isn't one.

Wayne, old boy - this site only rises to a better class of troll. Have a look at SeanT and try again.

Well I'm of the opinion the Populus poll is the most accurate poll out there.

Did that come out today? What were the numbers?

Tonight's YouGov poll is the first to be carried out wholly after the LAB calls to stop Waitrose from giving out free coffee.

NickPalmer said:

Labour is 5-6 ahead and has been for ages.

Indeed. Consistency has been pretty incredible, with a few specific moments of shifts followed by stationary movement for long periods. Were it not for natural caution, I'd imagine a lot of Labour candidates would already be working on their victory speeches (The vast numbers of those in safe seats on both sides probably already have done, with fill in the blanks so they can refer to the tragic/wonderful victory/loss for x/y and a few topical references).

Out of interest, does the Commons have offices for MPs arranged by constituency at all? So that whoever wins in a seat they'd get the same office as the last person?

Socrates said:

Cameron really is a terrible Prime Minister, if this is his response to Ukraine. A naked act of armed aggression - and likely annexation - and we respond with a few travel bans? Putin must be quaking in his boots. Under him the UK is really becoming a supine average European country. A modern day Ted Heath. And Hague seems just as bad. I used to think he was a strong-minded Atlanticist, but he's just acquiescing to it all.

And miliband is a modern day Wilson,foot or Kinnock,which ever it is,we are fcuked as a country ;-)

Danny565 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

NickPalmer said:

To be honest, I don't believe this YG, nor the preceding one at 4 points. I don't think anything is happening in terms of voter intention at the moment: Labour is 5-6 ahead and has been for ages. Our daily analysis is like staring at roulette table results, trying to work out the pattern and missing the fact that there isn't one.

Wayne, old boy - this site only rises to a better class of troll. Have a look at SeanT and try again.

Well I'm of the opinion the Populus poll is the most accurate poll out there.

Did that come out today? What were the numbers?

It did

Populus ‏@PopulusPolls 9h

New Populus VI: Lab 37 (-1); Cons 34 (+1); LD 10 (+1); UKIP 12 (-1); Oth 8 (+1) Tables: http://popu.lu/s_vi140303

Graham Wettone ‏@grahamwettone

Cameron wants to re introduce 'snoopers' charter because 'it works on the telly'? Seriously? CBB next in law then! http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/10608439/David-Cameron-TV-crime-dramas-show-need-for-snoopers-charter.html …"

Ah well. Lucky for the incompetent fop it can't get much more humiliating than that.
Can it?

Carola said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Well the Daily Mail Front page

Child Porn: Number 10 aide arrested

Daily Mail U.K. ‏@DailyMailUK 1m

Tuesday's @DailyMailUK #MailFrontPages pic.twitter.com/rHX8HFoT1m

Didn't that bloke also get papped flashing a document on route to no 10?

Hmmm... the plot thickens.

I can't get my head around either story without going hmmmm

Paddy Briggs ‏@PaddyBriggs 8m

@benedictbrogan : "Mr Cameron could do with more grown ups like Mr Rock about." Ha!! http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/benedictbrogan/100082741/the-return-of-patrick-rock/ …

kle4 said:

Socrates said:

Cameron really is a terrible Prime Minister, if this is his response to Ukraine. A naked act of armed aggression - and likely annexation - and we respond with a few travel bans? Putin must be quaking in his boots. Under him the UK is really becoming a supine average European country. A modern day Ted Heath. And Hague seems just as bad. I used to think he was a strong-minded Atlanticist, but he's just acquiescing to it all.

One of Cameron's biggest problems is he has no nerve, in anything. When he does move decisively he seems fine, but he lacks internal party support, which undercuts whatever he plans to do nationally or internationally, and that means he dithers about inconsitently. Knowing that many in his own ranks will hate him for daring to involve the UK in something, anything, he has no confidence which would at least make doing nothing seem a principled approach made after firm consideration, instead trying to talk the talk while not walking the walk, and you cannot do both without real confidence (Putin and the Russians are the best at that - act as you want, and unlike the West, never give the impression you doubt your own actions, whatever they were)

You have a point with his own party but the rest is called coalition.

I am sure the government's oligarch friends knew the content of the "leaked document" days ago. They might well have written it.

Unsurprisingly I like Douglas Carswells' take on what Britain should be doing right now.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/douglascarswellmp/100261290/ukraine-and-britains-best-interests/

On a tangent, heaing all these russian accents talking about revolution in the news encouraged me to spend the past couple of days playing an obscure and not terribly well reviewed game which I've always enjoyed, called Republic: The Revolution.

You play as a revolutionary leader in a fictional corrupt post-soviet dictatorship, and you have to overthrow the President. It's a strategy game based around actions of your cell leaders across three cities in turn, with options for differerent approachs. You have to cancass opinion, put up posters and hold rallies, and you udnermine your opponents with actions like stories in the press, vandalism, charity work, assaulting opponents, all types of things.

I love it because you can choose various methods to succeed in the revolution, from working with shadowy business types, forcing out corrupt officials for your own people, outright criminal enterprises, cynically using other protest groups to an end game of forcing economic breakdown, national uprising, military coup or manupulating the international community to force the president to resign and hand over power to you.

This time around after working with a set of oligarchs to secure the most resources, I convinced the international community to force the president down, aided by me replacing the head of the secret police with my own man. Good fun.

Number 10 have released a statement re that arrest

http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/93918/downing_street_statement_of_arrest_of_patrick_rock_over_child_pornography_allegations.html

old_labour said:

I am sure the government's oligarch friends knew the content of the "leaked document" days ago. They might well have written it.

Could never happen.

"Between them the donors have given £43.4 million to the Conservatives since the beginning of 2012.

One such donor, Russian businessman Alexander Temerko attended two dinners with David Cameron has given £200,000 in the past two years.

Although foreign nationals are normally barred from giving to British political parties, Mr Temerko has been a British citizen since 2011 and was on the UK electoral register prior to making his first donation in April 2012. Mr Temerko was allowed to stay in Britain after a judge ruled an attempt to extradite him on fraud charges was politically motivated."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/10591950/43-million-given-to-Conservatives-by-members-of-exclusive-Cameron-dining-club.html

Adrian Hilton ‏@Adrian_Hilton · 2 mins
Floods.. Food banks.. Bishops.. Ukip.. Ukraine.. Patrick Rock.. When sorrows come, they come not single spies But in battalions.

compouter2 said:

Evening all, sorry for the late post, Basil passed out when he saw the Labour percentage. Obviously an outlier, however, it's always nice to see one in the goalpost direction. It looks like me and Basil are in it for the long haul.

Basils reaction to tonights poll:http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-t-QJSN_Pi3Q/T-Hz6j8LxfI/AAAAAAAAFI8/2NG_pv1HYoE/s1600/squirrel.jpg

'pouter

You forgot to post Basil's reaction to the Populus poll.

Here it is:

http://bit.ly/1kPHpQd

Ishmael_X said:

I just don't see the point of making ourselves look a complete bunch of [moderated] and royally pissing off the U.S. just to get our position on this out in the open.

Yet where is this ferocious response from Obama? Despite Kerry's fairly laughable posturing on the Ukraine we've yet to see any fury or blowback from Washington on this. If they really are as upset as you indicate we should see soon enough.

Benedict Brogan thinks Mr Osborne's attempts to position himself for a leadership contest "is the clearest sign that the [Conservative Party] high command is beginning to panic."

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/benedictbrogan/100262024/the-invitation-to-boris-shows-that-the-tories-are-panicking/

Ishmael_X said:

Mick_Pork said:

Ishmael_X said:

So the competing theories are a. incompetence of one individual b. incompetence of the government, coupled with one individual (the document-carrier) acquiescing in being the patsy in a career-destroying plot.

He's been sacked then? Odd, you would think that would be trumpeted instead of a confirmation and then further spinning of the story just in case anyone had missed the point.

"Government officials said that no decisions were taken at the meeting of the NSC. But they confirmed that the call in the document for London's financial centre to kept open to Russians reflected the government's thinking that it wanted to target action against Moscow and not damage British interests."

Ishmael_X said:

If we want to leak our intention why not do it via anonymous briefings outside the conference chamber at the EU meeting on Thursday?

Because those could be easily denied and are anonymous so won't carry much weight.
This is crystal clear and sends a very loud message out to a City fearful of economic blowback.

It is of no consequence to me whether you want to believe it's just yet more government incompetence at the heart of Cammie's strategic response to Putin. You are quite welcome to take that view.

Not sacked afaik yet but it isn't going to play terribly well at his annual appraisal, I think you will agree.

I just don't see the point of making ourselves look a complete bunch of [moderated] and royally pissing off the U.S. just to get our position on this out in the open.

Ishmael, the conspiracy theory is just lunacy.

Pork is just tumbling down the mountainside after reaching the peak with his post on Kerry and Hillary.

The chances of failure are just too great for any leak to be planned in this way.

anotherDave said:

Benedict Brogan thinks Mr Osborne's attempts to position himself for a leadership contest "is the clearest sign that the [Conservative Party] high command is beginning to panic."

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/benedictbrogan/100262024/the-invitation-to-boris-shows-that-the-tories-are-panicking/

http://www.merumaya.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/jones_dontpanic_11.jpg

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mail have the story up

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2572495/No-10-aide-arrested-child-porn-Police-quiz-man-advised-Cameron-web-filters.html

Christ on a bike, here we go again.....paedo will be the buzzword on here.

nigel4england said:

Evening all, sorry for the late post,

Don't be.

You know me Nigel, always try to be polite to other posters.

AveryLP said:

Ishmael_X said:

Mick_Pork said:

Ishmael_X said:

So the competing theories are a. incompetence of one individual b. incompetence of the government, coupled with one individual (the document-carrier) acquiescing in being the patsy in a career-destroying plot.

He's been sacked then? Odd, you would think that would be trumpeted instead of a confirmation and then further spinning of the story just in case anyone had missed the point.

"Government officials said that no decisions were taken at the meeting of the NSC. But they confirmed that the call in the document for London's financial centre to kept open to Russians reflected the government's thinking that it wanted to target action against Moscow and not damage British interests."

Ishmael_X said:

If we want to leak our intention why not do it via anonymous briefings outside the conference chamber at the EU meeting on Thursday?

Because those could be easily denied and are anonymous so won't carry much weight.
This is crystal clear and sends a very loud message out to a City fearful of economic blowback.

It is of no consequence to me whether you want to believe it's just yet more government incompetence at the heart of Cammie's strategic response to Putin. You are quite welcome to take that view.

Not sacked afaik yet but it isn't going to play terribly well at his annual appraisal, I think you will agree.

I just don't see the point of making ourselves look a complete bunch of [moderated] and royally pissing off the U.S. just to get our position on this out in the open.

Ishmael, the conspiracy theory is just lunacy.

No, you predicting that Lansley would be PM is conspiracy theory lunacy. This is just spin.


""Government officials said that no decisions were taken at the meeting of the NSC. But they confirmed that the call in the document for London's financial centre to kept open to Russians reflected the government's thinking that it wanted to target action against Moscow and not damage British interests."

I know, your spin is inept and hilarious twaddle Limp Log, but that spin not anything other than a very revealing attempt to push a story that number 10 quite clearly wants out there.

It's self-evidently a good night to be an inept tory spinner like yourself Limp Log, but don't compound it with your petulant anger.

Gove in 'Gove still a twit' shocker on Newsnight.

I see we have Wayne posting again , he has not changed his style from when he used to post in the run up to 2010 .

We await a "near perfect" response to how Cammie's snoopers charter and internet filter was always a good idea.

kle4 said:

On a tangent, heaing all these russian accents talking about revolution in the news encouraged me to spend the past couple of days playing an obscure and not terribly well reviewed game which I've always enjoyed, called Republic: The Revolution.

Have you tried Tropico? The successive new releases are rather desperate attempt to squeeze more out of the concept, but the original idea is good.

kle4 said:

Out of interest, does the Commons have offices for MPs arranged by constituency at all? So that whoever wins in a seat they'd get the same office as the last person?

No, offices are arranged broadly by party, so you get a bunch of Lab MPs, then a bunch of Tories, etc. - presumably because it means people don't need to keep lowering their voices as they plot :-). The usual choice is between a small office near the Chamber or a bigger one further away, but elements of luck, seniority and maybe favouritism are relevant too.

Pulpstar said:

@NickPalmer is playdiplomacy.com down ?

Need to finalise orders for one of my games :E !

It's up now!