politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters make it an 81% chance that the UK will participate in

System · April 2019

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters make it an 81% chance that the UK will participate in the 2019 Euro Elections

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IanB2 · April 2019

First - again!

Big_G_NorthWales · April 2019

Second

TheScreamingEagles · April 2019

LOL

https://twitter.com/DKShrewsbury/status/1115339460512821250

https://twitter.com/villagosia/status/1115339895848013825

IanB2 · April 2019

MPs are defecting from the party within a party back to the party. Well I never.

Scott_P · April 2019

https://twitter.com/ScotlandNT/status/1115341624861757445

Scott_P · April 2019

https://twitter.com/labourwhips/status/1115342821509214209

kle4 · April 2019

Still under estimating things I see.

GIN1138 · April 2019

Not sure why the Conservatives are bothering to contest these?

One hell of a shellacking is on the way...

Scott_P · April 2019

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1115343945838616576

kle4 · April 2019

Big_G_NorthWales said:

kle4 said:

Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/DKShrewsbury/status/1115339460512821250
Noteworthy that this is almost like resigning from a party.
Not really. The hardcore is less than 30 and max 60 committed to ERG

The noteworthiness is that membership of the ERG seems stronger to some of its members than being members of the Tories. They no doubt argue, not without some cause, that they represent a very large strand of Tory member opinion, but nevertheless they are definitely more committed to the ERG whip than the Tory whip. Thus it is actually significant that someone might choose to quit the group, especially since the point you make is true, there is a looser group beyond the hardcore, which means he could have stayed in it even though he has decided he wanted the MV to pass - after all, even its Chairman caved and voted for that last time.

GIN1138 said:
Not sure why the Conservatives are bothering to contest these?

One hell of a shellacking is on the way...

Where there are elections, they will stand. You stand in no hoper seats in parliamentaries and locals, but you stand nonetheless.

IanB2 · April 2019

kle4 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

kle4 said:

Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/DKShrewsbury/status/1115339460512821250
Noteworthy that this is almost like resigning from a party.
Not really. The hardcore is less than 30 and max 60 committed to ERG
The noteworthiness is that membership of the ERG seems stronger to some of its members than being members of the Tories. They no doubt argue, not without some cause, that they represent a very large strand of Tory member opinion, but nevertheless they are definitely more committed to the ERG whip than the Tory whip. Thus it is actually significant that someone might choose to quit the group, especially since the point you make is true, there is a looser group beyond the hardcore, which means he could have stayed in it even though he has decided he wanted the MV to pass - after all, even its Chairman caved and voted for that last time.
GIN1138 said:
Not sure why the Conservatives are bothering to contest these?

One hell of a shellacking is on the way...
Where there are elections, they will stand. You stand in no hoper seats in parliamentaries and locals, but you stand nonetheless.

And because there's now a fair chance of their serving their full term.

williamglenn · April 2019

https://twitter.com/andrew_comres/status/1115344827208675328?s=21

kle4 · April 2019

Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1115343945838616576

Another in a line of reports of 'X gives explanation which might help sell it to their party, but which makes it harder for Y to sell it to theirs'

HYUFD · April 2019

GIN1138 said:
Not sure why the Conservatives are bothering to contest these?

One hell of a shellacking is on the way...

As they can get 1 MEP in many regions on just 8% of the vote under PR

TheScreamingEagles · April 2019

https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1115344827208675328

TheScreamingEagles · April 2019

https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1115343712081645569

IanB2 · April 2019

It would be ironic if PR should rescue the Tories from MEP wipeout.

SandyRentool · April 2019

TheScreamingEagles said:
https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1115343712081645569

Poor LibDems. Not even worth a mention.

GIN1138 · April 2019

TheScreamingEagles said:
https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1115343712081645569

Which party will go under 30% first? I think Con...

We'll soon be trawling back through the archives trying to find the lowest polling scores the Tories got in their nadir in the 1990s...

HYUFD · April 2019

TheScreamingEagles said:
https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1115344827208675328

That doesn't really look like an acceptable net positive v net negative poll, more a poll on which one voters may favour

MarqueeMark · April 2019

Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1115343945838616576

Since when has the Govt. been confident of anything when it comes to MPs?

HYUFD · April 2019

TheScreamingEagles said:
https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1115343712081645569

Confirms Yougov and BMG, both main parties collapsing and minor parties benefiting

Wulfrun_Phil · April 2019

Change UK could do very well in the Euro elections if the winnable seats on the Labour lists all turn out to be occupied by names on the Momentum slate, as I think they will be.

IanB2 · April 2019

MarqueeMark said:

Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1115343945838616576
Since when has the Govt. been confident of anything when it comes to MPs?

Especially if she does indeed give them a free vote.

Sunil_Prasannan · April 2019

TheScreamingEagles said:
https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1115343712081645569

Change UK, NOT the TIG!

ydoethur · April 2019

MarqueeMark said:

Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1115343945838616576
Since when has the Govt. been confident of anything when it comes to MPs?

Well, they can confidently state 90% of them are useless wankers.

dyedwoolie · April 2019

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1115343712081645569
Confirms Yougov and BMG, both main parties collapsing and minor parties benefiting

Collapsing is a little over the top, minus 2 and minus 3

SandyRentool · April 2019

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1115343712081645569
Change UK, NOT the TIG!

I don't want to Change UK, I'm not looking for a New England.

HYUFD · April 2019

https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1115346733263933441?s=20

IanB2 · April 2019

Bill Cash is blowing his top in the Commons.

Reduced to quoting Cromwell. Can a Tory sink any lower?

solarflare · April 2019

TheScreamingEagles said:
https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1115344827208675328

So basically all outcomes no matter the extreme are all roughly as popular? That seems helpful.

HYUFD · April 2019

https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1115346077203533825?s=20

ydoethur · April 2019

SandyRentool said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1115343712081645569
Change UK, NOT the TIG!
I don't want to Change UK, I'm not looking for a New England.

Is that not your Maine aspiration?

GIN1138 · April 2019

GIN1138 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1115343712081645569
Which party will go under 30% first? I think Con...

We'll soon be trawling back through the archives trying to find the lowest polling scores the Tories got in their nadir in the 1990s...

9th January 1995 was the nadir when Gallup/Telegraph showed:

Con 18.5% Lab 62% Lib-Dem 15% Lab Lead 43.5%

So Con 18% is what we're looking for!

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-1992-1997

kle4 · April 2019

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1115343712081645569
Change UK, NOT the TIG!

I thought they were seeking to be called 'Change UK - The Independent Group'.

Bad news for them, googling CHange Uk still comes up with the petition site.

dyedwoolie said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1115343712081645569
Confirms Yougov and BMG, both main parties collapsing and minor parties benefiting
Collapsing is a little over the top, minus 2 and minus 3

Also it is only the lowest in 4 years. Was not a disaster for some.

Omnium · April 2019

IanB2 said:
Bill Cash is blowing his top in the Commons.

Reduced to quoting Cromwell. Can a Tory sink any lower?

Yep, they could meet with Corbyn,

ydoethur · April 2019

GIN1138 said:

GIN1138 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1115343712081645569
Which party will go under 30% first? I think Con...

We'll soon be trawling back through the archives trying to find the lowest polling scores the Tories got in their nadir in the 1990s...
9th January 1995 was the nadir when Gallup/Telegraph showed:

Con 18.5% Lab 62% Lib-Dem 15% Lab Lead 43.5%

So Con 18% is what we're looking for!

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-1992-1997

Am I right in thinking Labour's lowest score under Mr No More Boom and Bust was 22%?

So that's another mark to beat...

kle4 · April 2019

I see Alan Sked has founded a new party, Prosper UK. I seem to recall him announcing his intention to do so a little while ago. How many UKIP offshoots is that now?

http://search.electoralcommission.org.uk/English/Registrations/PP7985

TheScreamingEagles · April 2019

37% of Labour voters would not trust the Labour Party to manage defence policy - ComRes.

IanB2 · April 2019

TIG/Change Uk claims to be interviewing for its MEP slates this week, and says it has various former MPs and MEPs who have applied. Which is somewhat mysterious. I have no interest in standing for the EP but registered as a TIG supporter the day after their launch. I have seen nothing from them asking for applications to be an election candidate and there is nothing about this whatsoever on their website. Where and how have they got all these applications from?

kle4 · April 2019

HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1115346077203533825?s=20

It took over 6 months to get them to sort of accept May's deal as an outcome. Customs Union has a long way to go.

Sean_F · April 2019

kle4 said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1115343712081645569
Change UK, NOT the TIG!
I thought they were seeking to be called 'Change UK - The Independent Group'.

Bad news for them, googling CHange Uk still comes up with the petition site.
dyedwoolie said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1115343712081645569
Confirms Yougov and BMG, both main parties collapsing and minor parties benefiting
Collapsing is a little over the top, minus 2 and minus 3
Also it is only the lowest in 4 years. Was not a disaster for some.

A lot of polls in 2014/15 gave very low combined shares for the big two.

Oddly, a surge in support for UKIP was combined with a surge in support for EU membership, which peaked with a MORI poll giving Remain a 66/22% lead.

GIN1138 · April 2019

ydoethur said:

GIN1138 said:

GIN1138 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1115343712081645569
Which party will go under 30% first? I think Con...

We'll soon be trawling back through the archives trying to find the lowest polling scores the Tories got in their nadir in the 1990s...
9th January 1995 was the nadir when Gallup/Telegraph showed:

Con 18.5% Lab 62% Lib-Dem 15% Lab Lead 43.5%

So Con 18% is what we're looking for!

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-1992-1997
Am I right in thinking Labour's lowest score under Mr No More Boom and Bust was 22%?

So that's another mark to beat...

Labour went down to 18% with MORI on 31st May 2009 in the midst of the expense's scandal (and this Brexit debacle is starting to looks a LOT like expenses on steroids IMO)

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2005-2010

RochdalePioneers · April 2019

So is anything actually happening in Parliament or is it just May flying round to beg Macron and Merkel for more time?

williamglenn · April 2019

VP betting post:

ydoethur · April 2019

GIN1138 said:

ydoethur said:

GIN1138 said:

GIN1138 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1115343712081645569
Which party will go under 30% first? I think Con...

We'll soon be trawling back through the archives trying to find the lowest polling scores the Tories got in their nadir in the 1990s...
9th January 1995 was the nadir when Gallup/Telegraph showed:

Con 18.5% Lab 62% Lib-Dem 15% Lab Lead 43.5%

So Con 18% is what we're looking for!

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-1992-1997
Am I right in thinking Labour's lowest score under Mr No More Boom and Bust was 22%?

So that's another mark to beat...
Labour went down to 18% with MORI on 31st May 2009 in the midst of the expense's scandal (and this Brexit debacle is starting to looks a LOT like expenses on steroids IMO)

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2005-2010

OK, thanks.

So for both, 18% or less is the target.

_Anazina_ · April 2019

Just seen the Melissa Kite vs Peter Oborne chit chat on C4 News. Dear me, with media outriders as hopeless as the risible Kite working for them, no longer the Brexiteers are fucked.

HYUFD · April 2019

williamglenn said:
VP betting post:

I suppose Bernie might consider them!

MarqueeMark · April 2019

HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1115346077203533825?s=20

Not much for Theresa May to concede to Labour on there.....

HYUFD · April 2019

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1115346077203533825?s=20
It took over 6 months to get them to sort of accept May's deal as an outcome. Customs Union has a long way to go.

The key words are ''long delay.' Without that I expect Customs Union Deal would be higher

kle4 · April 2019

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1115346077203533825?s=20
It took over 6 months to get them to sort of accept May's deal as an outcome. Customs Union has a long way to go.
The key words are ''long delay.' Without that I expect Customs Union Deal would be higher

Perhaps. I am less certain of that, some seem to regard it as a line not to be crossed.

IanB2 · April 2019

RochdalePioneers said:
So is anything actually happening in Parliament or is it just May flying round to beg Macron and Merkel for more time?

MPs are arguing about the Cooper Bill, the Cash wrecking amendment, and the stuff from the Lords. Very ill tempered, more heat than light.

kle4 · April 2019

RochdalePioneers said:
So is anything actually happening in Parliament or is it just May flying round to beg Macron and Merkel for more time?

I think you know.

rpjs · April 2019

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1115343712081645569
Change UK, NOT the TIG!

"Some say..."

GIN1138 · April 2019

MarqueeMark said:

HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1115346077203533825?s=20
Not much for Theresa May to concede to Labour on there.....

Tories are done for!

HYUFD · April 2019

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1115346077203533825?s=20
It took over 6 months to get them to sort of accept May's deal as an outcome. Customs Union has a long way to go.
The key words are ''long delay.' Without that I expect Customs Union Deal would be higher
Perhaps. I am less certain of that, some seem to regard it as a line not to be crossed.

Deltapoll had 42% of Tories backing Deal plus Customs Union without the 'long delay' added on

ydoethur · April 2019

rpjs said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1115343712081645569
Change UK, NOT the TIG!
"Some say..."

The Tiggers have not been unbounced since they Changed.

Big_G_NorthWales · April 2019

GIN1138 said:

MarqueeMark said:

HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1115346077203533825?s=20
Not much for Theresa May to concede to Labour on there.....
Tories are done for!

Correction. ERG are done for

initforthemoney · April 2019

SandyRentool said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1115343712081645569
Change UK, NOT the TIG!
I don't want to Change UK, I'm not looking for a New England.

You're much like Change UK then.

Casino_Royale · April 2019

I’ve just lost a follower and been blocked by an ultra-hard Brexiteer on Twitter for congratulating Dan K for resigning from the ERG to support May’s Deal.

She said, “bottled it”, and then instantly blocked me.

Brave.

williamglenn · April 2019

IanB2 said:

RochdalePioneers said:
So is anything actually happening in Parliament or is it just May flying round to beg Macron and Merkel for more time?
MPs are arguing about the Cooper Bill, the Cash wrecking amendment, and the stuff from the Lords. Very ill tempered, more heat than light.

It’s quite entertaining. Cash and Redwood seem to think the withdrawal agreement is going to be foisted on them. Little do they know...

Benpointer · April 2019

williamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/andrew_comres/status/1115344827208675328?s=21

Remain looks like a clear winner there to me

RochdalePioneers · April 2019

kle4 said:

RochdalePioneers said:
So is anything actually happening in Parliament or is it just May flying round to beg Macron and Merkel for more time?
I think you know.

That May has decided that in a choice of no deal or revoke that she will have to revoke, consequences be damned as she will be gone anyway. That enough of the EU27 know this to be the case that they will dit "non" to force the issue.

GIN1138 · April 2019

Big_G_NorthWales said:

GIN1138 said:

MarqueeMark said:

HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1115346077203533825?s=20
Not much for Theresa May to concede to Labour on there.....
Tories are done for!
Correction. ERG are done for

You think it'll only be the ERG getting turfed out?

Sorry Big G you've all had it.

El_Capitano · April 2019

@ydoethur FPT: I can't imagine "Meekness and Majesty" being in his repertoire either, meekness not being Mr Francois's strong suit. "Feckless and Tragedy", perhaps.

HYUFD · April 2019

Corbyn may also have a problem with Deal plus Customs Union, not just May

https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1115347591905120256?s=20

Big_G_NorthWales · April 2019

RochdalePioneers said:

kle4 said:

RochdalePioneers said:
So is anything actually happening in Parliament or is it just May flying round to beg Macron and Merkel for more time?
I think you know.
That May has decided that in a choice of no deal or revoke that she will have to revoke, consequences be damned as she will be gone anyway. That enough of the EU27 know this to be the case that they will dit "non" to force the issue.

Neither revoke or no deal are happening

MarqueeMark · April 2019

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1115346077203533825?s=20
It took over 6 months to get them to sort of accept May's deal as an outcome. Customs Union has a long way to go.
The key words are ''long delay.' Without that I expect Customs Union Deal would be higher

When are you going to tell the party what the CU costs?

IanB2 · April 2019

RochdalePioneers said:

kle4 said:

RochdalePioneers said:
So is anything actually happening in Parliament or is it just May flying round to beg Macron and Merkel for more time?
I think you know.
That May has decided that in a choice of no deal or revoke that she will have to revoke, consequences be damned as she will be gone anyway. That enough of the EU27 know this to be the case that they will dit "non" to force the issue.

No PM, privy to all the briefings that they will have received, would ever decide to crash out without a deal.

ydoethur · April 2019

El_Capitano said:
@ydoethur FPT: I can't imagine "Meekness and Majesty" being in his repertoire either, meekness not being Mr Francois's strong suit. "Feckless and Tragedy", perhaps.

There will certainly be no Rumours of Angels where he's concerned, although there are ample thorns in the straw.

Scott_P · April 2019

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1115353879699496960

Big_G_NorthWales · April 2019

GIN1138 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

GIN1138 said:

MarqueeMark said:

HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1115346077203533825?s=20
Not much for Theresa May to concede to Labour on there.....
Tories are done for!
Correction. ERG are done for
You think it'll only be the ERG getting turfed out?

Sorry Big G you've all had it.

As long as ERG are slain I am not concerned about the future

GIN1138 · April 2019

HYUFD said:
Corbyn may also have a problem with Deal plus Customs Union, not just May

https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1115347591905120256?s=20

May and the Tories will primarily get the blame though as she's the one who said over 100 times we'd leave the EU on 29th March. She's the one that said No Deal Is Better Than A Bad Deal (and that slogan has really struck home with leavers in the same way Take Back Control did)

May is the one that made the Tories the Brexit Party in the 2017 election and made a point of saying we'd be out of SM and CU.

And that's before we get on to all the abuse the Tories and their media allies have been directing at Corbyn and are now trying to get him to save their bacon.

Just as the expenses scandal affected both parties but hit Labour disproportionately as the party of government so failure to deliver Brexit will obviously hit the Tories disproportionately...

GIN1138 · April 2019

Big_G_NorthWales said:

GIN1138 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

GIN1138 said:

MarqueeMark said:

HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1115346077203533825?s=20
Not much for Theresa May to concede to Labour on there.....
Tories are done for!
Correction. ERG are done for
You think it'll only be the ERG getting turfed out?

Sorry Big G you've all had it.
As long as ERG are slain I am not concerned about the future

Your becoming as extreme as JRM!

brokenwheel · April 2019

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1115346077203533825?s=20
It took over 6 months to get them to sort of accept May's deal as an outcome. Customs Union has a long way to go.
The key words are ''long delay.' Without that I expect Customs Union Deal would be higher
Perhaps. I am less certain of that, some seem to regard it as a line not to be crossed.
Deltapoll had 42% of Tories backing Deal plus Customs Union without the 'long delay' added on

The Deltapoll was a blatant outlier though...

HYUFD · April 2019

brokenwheel said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1115346077203533825?s=20
It took over 6 months to get them to sort of accept May's deal as an outcome. Customs Union has a long way to go.
The key words are ''long delay.' Without that I expect Customs Union Deal would be higher
Perhaps. I am less certain of that, some seem to regard it as a line not to be crossed.
Deltapoll had 42% of Tories backing Deal plus Customs Union without the 'long delay' added on
The Deltapoll was a blatant outlier though...

Not really, it had No Deal ahead amongst Tories just like Comres

IanB2 · April 2019

GIN1138 said:

HYUFD said:
Corbyn may also have a problem with Deal plus Customs Union, not just May

https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1115347591905120256?s=20
May and the Tories will primarily get the blame though as she's the one who said over 100 times we'd leave the EU on 29th March. She's that said No Deal Is Better Than A Bad Deal (and that slogan has really stuck with leavers in the same way Take Back Control did,.

May is the one that made the Tories the Brexit Party in the 2012 election and made a point of saying we'd be out of SM and CU.

And that's before we get on to all the abuse the Tories and their media allies have been directing at Corbyn and are now trying to get him to save their bacon.

Just as the expenses scandal affected both parties but hit Labour disproportionately as the party of government so failure to deliver Brexit will obviously hit the Tories disproportionately...

The more you look at it, the less sense it makes for Labour to get involved in any of this. The Tories are collapsing Brexit all by themselves. And will take most of the blame.

MikeSmithson · April 2019

IanB2 said:

RochdalePioneers said:

kle4 said:

RochdalePioneers said:
So is anything actually happening in Parliament or is it just May flying round to beg Macron and Merkel for more time?
I think you know.
That May has decided that in a choice of no deal or revoke that she will have to revoke, consequences be damned as she will be gone anyway. That enough of the EU27 know this to be the case that they will dit "non" to force the issue.
No PM, privy to all the briefings that they will have received, would ever decide to crash out without a deal.

Correct. Absolutely the right judgement.

HYUFD · April 2019

MarqueeMark said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1115346077203533825?s=20
It took over 6 months to get them to sort of accept May's deal as an outcome. Customs Union has a long way to go.
The key words are ''long delay.' Without that I expect Customs Union Deal would be higher
When are you going to tell the party what the CU costs?

I prefer May's Deal to Deal plus Customs Union as do most Tories but the latter is still better than revoke or EUref2 which the Commons would vote for over No Deal plus you can still do Deals on services with a CU even if not on goods

Big_G_NorthWales · April 2019

GIN1138 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

GIN1138 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

GIN1138 said:

MarqueeMark said:

HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1115346077203533825?s=20
Not much for Theresa May to concede to Labour on there.....
Tories are done for!
Correction. ERG are done for
You think it'll only be the ERG getting turfed out?

Sorry Big G you've all had it.
As long as ERG are slain I am not concerned about the future
Your becoming as extreme as JRM!

There is nothing extreme in wanting ERG slain.

HYUFD · April 2019

GIN1138 said:

HYUFD said:
Corbyn may also have a problem with Deal plus Customs Union, not just May

https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1115347591905120256?s=20
May and the Tories will primarily get the blame though as she's the one who said over 100 times we'd leave the EU on 29th March. She's the one that said No Deal Is Better Than A Bad Deal (and that slogan has really struck home with leavers in the same way Take Back Control did)

May is the one that made the Tories the Brexit Party in the 2017 election and made a point of saying we'd be out of SM and CU.

And that's before we get on to all the abuse the Tories and their media allies have been directing at Corbyn and are now trying to get him to save their bacon.

Just as the expenses scandal affected both parties but hit Labour disproportionately as the party of government so failure to deliver Brexit will obviously hit the Tories disproportionately...

Not what the latest polls show, all conducted after May's further extension announcement, 2 have the Tories ahead by 1 point, the other Labour and the Tories tied.

It is minor parties benefiting not Labour as No Deal Leavers go to UKIP and the Brexit Party and pro Revoke or EUref2 Remainers go to the LDs or CUK

El_Capitano · April 2019

ydoethur said:

El_Capitano said:
@ydoethur FPT: I can't imagine "Meekness and Majesty" being in his repertoire either, meekness not being Mr Francois's strong suit. "Feckless and Tragedy", perhaps.
There will certainly be no Rumours of Angels where he's concerned, although there are ample thorns in the straw.

Perhaps fortunately I don't know that one!

(Our church's Graham Kendrick repertoire is pretty much frozen in time at the point when I became organist and refused to add any more. I will occasionally indulge the happy-clappies with a Stuart Townend or something, which is marginally more palatable...)

blueblue · April 2019

GIN1138 said:

HYUFD said:
Corbyn may also have a problem with Deal plus Customs Union, not just May

https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1115347591905120256?s=20
May and the Tories will primarily get the blame though as she's the one who said over 100 times we'd leave the EU on 29th March. She's the one that said No Deal Is Better Than A Bad Deal (and that slogan has really struck home with leavers in the same way Take Back Control did)

May is the one that made the Tories the Brexit Party in the 2017 election and made a point of saying we'd be out of SM and CU.

And that's before we get on to all the abuse the Tories and their media allies have been directing at Corbyn and are now trying to get him to save their bacon.

Just as the expenses scandal affected both parties but hit Labour disproportionately as the party of government so failure to deliver Brexit will obviously hit the Tories disproportionately...

Failure to deliver Brexit will hurt the Tories? I'm a Tory, and I can tell you that if TM Revoked tomorrow and promised that we would never ever _ever_ hear the ******* word Brexit again, we'd be at 40%+ with the relief of a grateful nation.

Sean_F · April 2019

HYUFD said:

GIN1138 said:

HYUFD said:
Corbyn may also have a problem with Deal plus Customs Union, not just May

https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1115347591905120256?s=20
May and the Tories will primarily get the blame though as she's the one who said over 100 times we'd leave the EU on 29th March. She's the one that said No Deal Is Better Than A Bad Deal (and that slogan has really struck home with leavers in the same way Take Back Control did)

May is the one that made the Tories the Brexit Party in the 2017 election and made a point of saying we'd be out of SM and CU.

And that's before we get on to all the abuse the Tories and their media allies have been directing at Corbyn and are now trying to get him to save their bacon.

Just as the expenses scandal affected both parties but hit Labour disproportionately as the party of government so failure to deliver Brexit will obviously hit the Tories disproportionately...
Not what the latest polls show, all conducted after May's further extension announcement, 2 have the Tories ahead by 1 point, the other Labour and the Tories tied.

It is minor parties benefiting not Labour as No Deal Leavers go to UKIP and the Brexit Party and pro Revoke or EUref2 Remainers go to the LDs or CUK

But, the vote is being split between minor parties, rather than any one minor party benefitting. Which means that the big two will sail on serenely in any election decided by FPTP.

IanB2 · April 2019

Big_G_NorthWales said:

GIN1138 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

GIN1138 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

GIN1138 said:

MarqueeMark said:

HYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1115346077203533825?s=20
Not much for Theresa May to concede to Labour on there.....
Tories are done for!
Correction. ERG are done for
You think it'll only be the ERG getting turfed out?

Sorry Big G you've all had it.
As long as ERG are slain I am not concerned about the future
Your becoming as extreme as JRM!
There is nothing extreme in wanting ERG slain.

Sir, you are an immoderate anti-extremist.

IanB2 · April 2019

Almost everyone kicking up a fuss about Cooper/Letwin in the Commons is someone who has repeatedly voted down the Brexit agreement.

DavidL · April 2019

There was what was probably a voodoo poll on aol today which had the Brexit party on 52% with the Tories at something like 13% and Labour on 9%.

People are really pissed off.

Scott_P · April 2019

https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1115358349720203265

HYUFD · April 2019

DavidL said:
There was what was probably a voodoo poll on aol today which had the Brexit party on 52% with the Tories at something like 13% and Labour on 9%.

People are really pissed off.

If the Commons votes to revoke Art 50 on Thursday or Friday it is not impossible the Brexit Party could do an SNP 2015 at the next GE and Farage could become PM under FPTP. Remember about 2/3 of constituencies voted Leave in 2016

blueblue · April 2019

DavidL said:
There was what was probably a voodoo poll on aol today which had the Brexit party on 52% with the Tories at something like 13% and Labour on 9%.

People are really pissed off.

The really shocking news is that AOL still exists.

IanB2 · April 2019

Commons now voting on the Lords Amendments. First one carried, no opposition. Amendments 2&3 together go to division.

bigjohnowls · April 2019

When is the Cooper vote?

HYUFD · April 2019

Sean_F said:

HYUFD said:

GIN1138 said:

HYUFD said:
Corbyn may also have a problem with Deal plus Customs Union, not just May

https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1115347591905120256?s=20
May and the Tories will primarily get the blame though as she's the one who said over 100 times we'd leave the EU on 29th March. She's the one that said No Deal Is Better Than A Bad Deal (and that slogan has really struck home with leavers in the same way Take Back Control did)

May is the one that made the Tories the Brexit Party in the 2017 election and made a point of saying we'd be out of SM and CU.

And that's before we get on to all the abuse the Tories and their media allies have been directing at Corbyn and are now trying to get him to save their bacon.

Just as the expenses scandal affected both parties but hit Labour disproportionately as the party of government so failure to deliver Brexit will obviously hit the Tories disproportionately...
Not what the latest polls show, all conducted after May's further extension announcement, 2 have the Tories ahead by 1 point, the other Labour and the Tories tied.

It is minor parties benefiting not Labour as No Deal Leavers go to UKIP and the Brexit Party and pro Revoke or EUref2 Remainers go to the LDs or CUK
But, the vote is being split between minor parties, rather than any one minor party benefitting. Which means that the big two will sail on serenely in any election decided by FPTP.

For the moment, if we ended up with Revoke and no Brexit at all (never mind soft Brexit or even EUref2) we could see Leavers surge to Farage`s new Brexit Party

blueblue · April 2019

HYUFD said:

DavidL said:
There was what was probably a voodoo poll on aol today which had the Brexit party on 52% with the Tories at something like 13% and Labour on 9%.

People are really pissed off.
If the Commons votes to revoke Art 50 on Thursday or Friday it is not impossible the Brexit Party could do an SNP 2015 at the next GE and Farage could become PM under FPTP. Remember about 2/3 of constituencies voted Leave in 2016

Then why didn't the Conservative landslide materialize? Translating the Leave vote to FPTP should have 2017 unlosable. But it wasn't.

DavidL · April 2019

HYUFD said:

DavidL said:
There was what was probably a voodoo poll on aol today which had the Brexit party on 52% with the Tories at something like 13% and Labour on 9%.

People are really pissed off.
If the Commons votes to revoke Art 50 on Thursday or Friday it is not impossible the Brexit Party could do an SNP 2015 at the next GE and Farage could become PM under FPTP. Remember about 2/3 of constituencies voted Leave in 2016

You could be right. I don’t think that remainers or our remainer dominated media are close to understanding how angry people are getting about this. Do what you were f******* told.

GIN1138 · April 2019

blueblue said:

GIN1138 said:

HYUFD said:
Corbyn may also have a problem with Deal plus Customs Union, not just May

https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1115347591905120256?s=20
May and the Tories will primarily get the blame though as she's the one who said over 100 times we'd leave the EU on 29th March. She's the one that said No Deal Is Better Than A Bad Deal (and that slogan has really struck home with leavers in the same way Take Back Control did)

May is the one that made the Tories the Brexit Party in the 2017 election and made a point of saying we'd be out of SM and CU.

And that's before we get on to all the abuse the Tories and their media allies have been directing at Corbyn and are now trying to get him to save their bacon.

Just as the expenses scandal affected both parties but hit Labour disproportionately as the party of government so failure to deliver Brexit will obviously hit the Tories disproportionately...
Failure to deliver Brexit will hurt the Tories? I'm a Tory, and I can tell you that if TM Revoked tomorrow and promised that we would never ever _ever_ hear the ******* word Brexit again, we'd be at 40%+ with the relief of a grateful nation.

Remainers possibly - I'm sure the losers would love to become the winners.

Leavers would be less impressed at being winners becoming losers...

Benpointer · April 2019

John Redwood on the possibility we might not exit with No Deal after all: "business now, in many cases, feels very let down that they are not being able to use all their contingencies, which they have spent good money on."

What planet is he on?

Sean_F · April 2019

HYUFD said:

DavidL said:
There was what was probably a voodoo poll on aol today which had the Brexit party on 52% with the Tories at something like 13% and Labour on 9%.

People are really pissed off.
If the Commons votes to revoke Art 50 on Thursday or Friday it is not impossible the Brexit Party could do an SNP 2015 at the next GE and Farage could become PM under FPTP. Remember about 2/3 of constituencies voted Leave in 2016

That would be amusing.

HYUFD · April 2019

Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1115358349720203265

Yet the Tories still lead 2/3 of the latest polls and are tied in the other

williamglenn · April 2019

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1115359085061447685?s=21

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