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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Six Fridays to go and punters think there’s an increasing chan
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Six Fridays to go and punters think there’s an increasing chance the the UK will leave on schedule
Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-47243351
Leave by 29 Mar (either with a deal or No Deal) 30% (No Deal is 23% so deal is 7%)
Extend A50 71%
Revoke A50 14%
These are last prices struck. They add up to 115%. I think the Revoke is too high, the Leave by 29 mar too high, and the extend is too low.
EDIT: I heavily laid "Leave by 29 Mar" at 1.6 some time back so I'm well in the green.
I have no sense of how likely it is that they will overcome these obstacles this time around.
The prospect of negotiating a different deal - one with a revised backstop, for example - while possible, has to be extremely slim. And even if it could be done, it'd put a spanner in the works of any draft ratification legislation already drawn up, so make a delay even more likely (although there is the risk that the EP might reject such a deal, in which case we'd be back to No Deal and a 29/3 exit).
However, No Deal does not necessarily equate to leaving on 29/3. It's quite possible that Britain could get an extension and still not be able to ratify any deal.
Leadsom will continue talking nonsense. May will repeat the same pre-programmed statement she’s been boring us rigid with for months and months.
And the Militant Tendency of the Tory party - the ERG - will get their desire. I hope it turns to ashes in their mouths.
The rest of us will just have to cope with what happens. And some of us will wait quietly until the time comes to take our revenge.
If May just scrapes a meaningful vote win by the skin of her teeth before the deadline, that wouldn't be sufficient to demonstrate there is a stable majority to pass the legislation.
She has 2 big cards to play.
CARD 1: The Irish backstop. She has deduced that Brussels has a little something for her on this. It might be a 5 year sunset clause, it might be a legal codicil, it might even be the one expressed in the other. Whatever, it will not be totally insulting. Of course it won't. I don't care who you are, you don't insult Britain.
This card she will play very very late. Don't bank on it being 27th Feb. It could be later than that. She will produce it at the point of maximum panic about no deal on the one hand and not leaving at all on the other.
Will it be enough? I believe it will. I think the deal will pass. But if not, if MPs still refuse to play ball, TM has her own backstop, she has CARD 2 to play - take it to the British people, her people, in a 'back me or sack me' general election.
"This parliament will not Brexit, they are quislings, please give me a another one."
Will voters oblige? I have no idea. Much depends on Labour positioning. And in any case, as I say, I don't expect her to get locked into the backstop of a snap election. CARD 1 should take the trick. I sense that she is as confident of this as I am, hence the serene look on her face at the moment. It is the look of a strong woman in control of her life. She is directing this movie. It's Theresa's world and parliament and the rest of us just live in it.
Of course, that's right about No Deal still being possible after an extension, but as far as I know the only No Deal betting markets are "Leave with No Deal on 29 March".
Originally the deal was blocked by 432 MPs. Even if May won a landslide taking 50 seats off Labour, even if all 50 of those backed the deal, the numbers still wouldn't be there
Surely if it happens you should hope that you were wrong, that the ERG against the odds were right and that we succeed.
You may not expect that but its surely what is to he hoped for.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6706337/Muslim-parents-lead-group-300-protest-outside-school-gates-against-equality-lessons.html
Given Parliament voted 318 to 310 to rule out No Deal last month and those 318 will almost certainly vote for a permanent Customs Union to stop No Deal, joined by resigning Ministers like Clark, Rudd, Gauke and Burt by rejecting May's Deal the ERG will likely end up with the Commons voting for BINO instead.
The EU are now preparing for a renegotiation based on a permanent Customs Union as the likely alternative to No Deal given May's Deal seems doomed
?!?? ??! ? ?
What is he going to do. Join the UK and leave the EU.
Chickens coming home to roost
Brexit really has flushed out an army of grandstanding tossers, on all sides.
Of course, I hope that a No deal Brexit and what comes after is not as bad as I fear it will. But I am not hopeful. There is no thought, no strategy behind it. It is reactive and angry. This is not a good basis for charting a fresh course in the world.
https://news.sky.com/story/spanish-pm-pedro-sanchez-calls-snap-election-after-budget-vote-defeat-11638004
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/02/15/upshot/british-irish-dialect-quiz.html
Of course, if the terrorists "haven't gone away", then that would smash the GFA.
I am hearing strong rumours that Theresa May has just bought a property in Southern Snowdonia.
It made me wonder if she is now thinking of life after Brexit.
I think, one way or another, she will get her deal through, and then resign (or perhaps even her resignation will be part of the price of the deal).
May 2016
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/what-is-the-new-ira-why-has-the-terror-threat-been-raised-from-northern-ireland-to-the-uk-a7024276.html
Europe is distinctly lacking in leadership. In some ways, that's an advantage: the likes of Verhofstadt can fantasise over European armies but there's no-one with the vision, dynamism and power to make a real shot on delivering on that. On the other hand, it also means that when big gestures are needed - for example in fudging rules on the NI border, for example, in the interests of peace and stability - the tramlines of bureaucrats' interpretations still rule the day.
https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1096154729149878272
Twitter about to suffer a server meltdown:
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1096364819379355648
FWIW, I think this summer still makes sense for a leadership election, if this round of Brexit is sorted by then - although not if there's an extension into the autumn or beyond, or if there's a No Deal situation to be managed.
Not bad - it picks a blob covering where I was born, and where my dad is from.
She should have waited...
But that's the whole thing about the hard border: it only really matters if people choose to believe that it matters. Unfortunately, for some, it does matter to that extent because it undermines the constructive ambiguity of N Ireland's constitutional position that's the true essence of the GFA.
But then I am a foreign mongrel.......
https://twitter.com/ireland/status/954792642327523329?lang=en
I see Owen Jones is determined to join in the 'let's look at Churchill's record' bandwagon.
Why?
What on earth has it to do with anything that is happening politically at the moment? What has Labour to gain by trying to educate the public about Churchill's pre-war record (and I'm trying to be kind to them here when I say 'educate')?
Average voter in the Duck and Dog (if they even notice): Oh look, it seems Churchill may have sent the army in to quell a strike in 1900. You know what that is terrible. Just terrible. I'll be voting Labour now.
Is this Brexit displacement activity or are these people so stuck in their own bubble that they have gone bonkers?
Spooky.....
For me, a very broad smudge smearing out in the wrong direction from whence I moved in 1962. I must be an "anywhere"
Yes 100%
For me, a very broad smudge smearing out in the wrong direction from whence I moved in 1962. I must be an "anywhere"
And Leadsom on the radio seemed to be threatening the EU with a return to those troubles if they don't cave in on the backstop.
On the flip side, employers could be much more brutal bastards as well, so I'm not saying this was all one-sided or that grievances weren't deep and justified, but we do need to understand the whole context of industrial and social relations before passing judgement.
This guy took party in violent protests, lied about his PhD, said all sorts of extreme stuff, yadda yadda yadda, and now is one of the go to guys for Corbynism,
https://order-order.com/2019/02/15/eu-investors-considering-moves-uk-brexit/
But on Hitler and appeasement and WW2 he was right. On the biggest moral and political question this country faced, at a time when its very existence was in doubt, he was right. And that is why he is a great man. Not because he was always right. But because he was right when it really mattered. Even if he was also wrong on other important questions.
When Britain was fighting Hitler, Communist Russia was allied with it and occupying countries and murdering their people and sending war materiel to Nazi Germany. The Communist party of Great Britain opposed the war until June 1941.
Stalin and Mao and Lenin and all those admired by McDonnell and Corbyn were some of the biggest mass murderers and evil people of the 20th century. The fact that they still feel able to express their admiration and march in front of their banners and express approval for some of their policies tells you something important about their utter lack of moral and historical sense.
If any politician on the right or their close advisers expressed admiration for Hitler, spoke at rallies with banners with Hitler's face on it, admired some of his policies, there would rightly be utter revulsion and such a politician would have, I hope, an extremely short career.
But the same revulsion does not apply to those admiring mass murderers on the Left. It is an appalling and depressing double standard which speaks ill of those doing it, those justifying it and those turning a blind eye to it.