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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Italian Job – Part One: 5 Star and the Lega blow the bloody doors off
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I shall have to wait for the next part to see how close to the truth that impression is.
"Major rejects claims that ignoring the referendum result would be a betrayal as “nonsense” and insisted a second referendum would be “the definitive decision” by persuading each party leader to make a public statement that the result would be honoured"
Umm, didn't we have public statements last time that the result would be honoured ? What's changed ?
Do these people really think anyone is going to fall for this crap? It's make the plebs vote until they get it right, nothing more.
That's obvious first in that the second vote campaign hardly waited to see what deal would emerge, it was always primarily about remaining, and second in how many mps gave approval to trigger A50 and yet now say no deal is completely unacceptable despite their action making it default.
By labelling it as so unacceptable despite authorising it it makes a further promise that this time they would follow through utterly pointless. If the options are as bad as they say they'll remain as opposed as ever.
And if we do want a referendum to settle this, and sadly we probably need that, it's an extension we need. Revokers don't need to reverse salami slice their way to what they want, eating us into it, if remaining is best that's ok to just say. Revoking is the end state, not the means to that end.
And people don't need to fall for it. The biggest lot don't care because the prize is remaining and anything goes, and others like me see no better option for resolution given parliaments likely failure to just do what it obviously wants, even though i doubt a promise this one for sure we promise would be universally followed.
Salvini seems to get a lot more press than the other chap, due to his portfolio I guess.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46831229
Table the Meaningful Vote for the week commencing 25th March. That should concentrate some minds. May's Shit Deal or No Deal. Either is Brexit......
Salvino and Di Maio is an unholy alliance of populism with fascist undertones (especially given Lega’s history).
Such things tend to self-combust, but not before delivering widespread damage, bigotry and larceny.
We will turn a blind eye because it is Italy, unless they actively decide to invade Abyssiania.
She could try to hold on, but it would be futile.
Grieve-led amendments would destroy any legislative agency she has, and ultimately she would lose a VONC.
Italy's politicians are more concerned with issues of Italian corruption than anything that's happening in euroland and always have been. It was this and a bit of humour that got Grillo noticed but it's always been the Italian obsession. What's more despite the problems with African refugees I haven't heard discussion anywhere about an Italian withdrawl from Shengen.
I really can't understand the desire of Brexiteers to show that the EU is falling apart. If the UK wants to go it alone fine but at least have the courage to do it without needing the reassurance that everyone else secretly wants to do the same thing.
(I should say I have made no study whatsoever of Italian politics but I have worked many times in Italy and had an Italian girlfriend and it's surprising what you can learn!)
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/12/tories-brink-imploding-brexit/
The last time they actually split into separate parties was in 1846.
Even if we add in Labour, we're still back to 1931.
It is very unusual for political parties to formally divide, even under extreme pressure. I will believe it when I see it.
In the Tory split of 1846, the other issue was that the Whig leader, Russell, was popular and widely respected. His equivalent at this moment is Corbyn. Whatever the hysteria, no way will the likes of Grieve and Clarke actively enable a government led by Corbyn.
These are very unusual circumstances. In particular, people are still underestimating just how deeply Brexit has bitten into people’s souls. Political wonks are so used to caring about all kinds of abstract stuff passionately that the one occasion that everyone else is doing that too, they don’t notice.
A split looks quite likely to me. The form may well depend in large part on Theresa May’s ultimate choices.
That would also give her cover for pulling the Meaningful Vote.
Grieve and Boles are both being threatened by their constituency associations. Soubry is not far behind. There may be more.
Three independent Conservatives is at least a caucus, and that’s not far from a party. It may only be a matter of weeks, though that’s probably unlikely.
Incidentally, despite @Alanbrooke's constant sniping at Merkel, her approval ratings are sky high compared with UK politicians.
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1083781907622621184?s=19
Doesn't mean it's not out there given how little time I have to research such things, but I'd be interested to see it.
I can’t see it happening.
I can see the aforementioned resigning the whip and seeing out the rest of the term as a caucus of irritants, but I wouldn’t really call that split.
I do hope the Remainers in Parliament finally come to understand this.
https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1084225184352002048?s=19
It would be interesting to see what polling would show for Britain in the May European elections, were we to revoke A50. I haven't seen any polling on that, but my guess would be that both pro and anti EU parties would have a surge, I don't think the general public have woken up to the nastiness of UKIP under Battern and his imp, Tommy Robinson.
There is something to be said for it in exposing the delusions of the Brexiteers, but quite a price to pay.
She's invested everything in her deal. It's basically her entire legacy, and she's put all her energy into negotiating it and telling people that it's the best solution to honouring the referendum result. So, if this Parliament is blocking the deal, why not attempt to replace this Parliament?
I've been listening to the reports on the radio this morning. If there's any chance of the Grieve-Soubry wing, in connivance with the Speaker, taking control of the legislative process and trying to force the Government to adopt a solution that May plainly disagrees with, then what does she have left to lose? If she throws in the towel then I only see two outcomes:
1. The Tories stick together as a solid bloc. The DUP (and Lady Hermon) won't vote for a Corbyn-led Government, so the FTPA machinery forces a GE, and May takes her deal out to the country
2. The Grieve-Soubry wing vote Corbyn into office, and are immediately expelled from their party. The deal is then dead, May resigns the Tory leadership, and the rest of the Conservative Party elects a fresh leader, whilst Corbyn and his various allies are then forced to take responsibility for whatever (inevitably divisive and unpopular) Brexit solution they come to. After that we get a GE anyway, where the Tories stand a decent chance of an immediate return to Government
Despite sleeping terribly and being half-awake, the article was so interesting I read the whole thing, and rather enjoyed it. Acted almost as visual coffee. Looking forward to subsequent parts.
NB, for those who missed it, my final (probably) inter-season blog is up, about driver pairings for 2019:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2019/01/driver-pairings-for-2019.html
I am surprised Con still hold Loughborough.
The point about blowing the doors off is, of course, that the car itself stays intact.
The empathy point is a key one. In our politics it is becoming increasingly difficult for politicians to empathise with the other side.
I spent time travelling in northern and central Italy last autumn. People I spoke to regard Brexit with a mixture of bemusement and amusement; whatever else it has done, it has poured a bucket of cold water over any such appetite in Italy. And the migrant problem was very evident - dog walking each morning, it was very obvious how every park was full of rough sleepers and every litter bin turned out for food. It seemed to me that almost all of them were sub-Saharan rather than middle eastern.
A question is whether its government can rise above the culture of favours and proto-corruption that pervades almost every aspect of life in Italy.
What struck me about the so called Greek bailouts, is that the money went to the northern european banks rather than the greek people. In a sane world, the banks that loaned Greece billions that it clearly couldn't afford to repay would have gone under; isn';t that how capitalism is supposed to work ?
Longer term, the euro needs to be rebalanced some how into a V2.0 where the south isn't locked into a competitive disadvantage.
https://twitter.com/FlavibleA/status/1083878739136704514?s=19
I think that Pierce is just pot stirring there, bluntly. Much speculation and innuendo, very little hard fact.
Still, even the Daily Mail has known to get things right at times, so he may be correct.
When Italian government debt reaches the point at which it can no longer be serviced (i.e. when the repayments get so large that raising tax and cutting spending enough to cover them becomes self-defeating through depressing economic activity,) then Italy faces a choice about what flavour of nasty medicine it takes. Will the Italian coalition choose a Greek-style EU/IMF bailout, with all the strings attached, or might it elect to leave the Euro to ease its problems through devaluation, and possibly even borrow some ideas from Iceland and unilaterally default on or restructure some of its debts?
If the deal fails, I see three ways out of this. 1) May immediately offers a second referendum, her deal or remain. That might pass in parliament with Labour rebels. 2) If she doesn't do that, Tory MPs have to find a way to get rid of her, and go back to the EU and try and negotiate something new. Or 3) May offers a general election.
https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/ireland-s-future-depends-on-breaking-free-from-bailout-1.565236
*If* we No Deal (and we won’t), it will be failure of Brexiters to agree on Brexit. Likewise if we Remain.
https://news.un.org/en/story/2018/10/1023512
The Sudan situation may well affect things though. A collapse of the ruling kleptocracy there could cause chaos.
That's the naked truth...
By all means bookmark this post and tell me I was wrong on April 1st. Believe me I shall be very happy if I am!
The League has had a very good time of it in polls since the General Election, but mainly at the expense of Five Star and Forza Italia.
Additionally, part of its success has come from softening its position on Europe from hostility to "critical friend".
Finally, Italian politics remains volatile, and it's way too early to start thinking about this as some kind of new normal. It wasn't so long ago that Renzi had sky high ratings as a relatively new PM, but these fell away sharply.
A phrase about being 'twice shy' springs to mind.
I also think there would have to be a Costello figure to unite the government, and I don't see one.
Also, let's remember there was another poll that went the other way, showing Labour falling back and the Tories getting a majority. Predictions on the next election are a fool's game right now,
http://www.tribtown.com/2019/01/08/eu-italy-banks-2/
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/06/04/italians-fall-love-eu-will-ever-leave/
Clearly there is significant euroscepticism in Italy, but Italians know that a lot of their issues are internal.
None of this exists within the Eurozone: yes, less well-off states benefit from some investment through the CAP and structural funds, but this is tiny in proportion to their overall budgets, and any large injections of cash come in the form of bailout loans rather than gifts. That might not be a problem if the Eurozone consisted only of Germany, Austria, the Netherlands and Luxembourg but, given that it in fact contains such a widely varying collection of economies, I don't see how this state of affairs can persist forever.
That is why I think people in this country who dismiss talk of some kind of United States of Europe *might* be wrong. There is strong political resistance in the creditor states for effectively signing their taxpayers up to fund public spending in the debtor states, but there's also immense political investment in the Euro as a project. Eventually, something must give: either the Eurozone will have to adopt at least some of the characteristics of a nation state to survive in one piece, or those economies that can't live in a currency union with Germany will have to peel off. It's just a matter of which outcome wins out.
They could agree no-tariff deals, they could introduce FOM, they could introduce minimum standards identical or even higher than the EU. So why are Remainers so incensed?
Because they don't trust the British voters to vote the way they ought? There is a lot of this about and it's why the left learned to embrace the EU - they saw it as a way to bring in many of their policies without having to be popular.
There are some who like the idea of a larger bloc and a no-border situation, If so, why stop at Europe? It's a reasonable view to hold. The problem for them is they are a minority and they know it.
I suspect the first group are the largest, and that's why it's become so bitter. Democracy is only possible if people accept that others have a right to hold different views. We've become a less tolerant society but the stone-throwers don't see the glass-house they inhabit.
What if they don't want to leave the Euro and they don't want to take the medicine needed to stay within it, either? Something's got to give.
After the introductions the production company producer whispered in my ear 'when they ask tell them we shot all day yesterday and it went very well'. Having just arrived from the airport this put me in an unbearable poition. The client asked me lots of questions about the shoot that hadn't happened and I looked like a gibbering idiot.
Wecome to working in Italy!
https://twitter.com/StandUp4Brexit/status/1084366807547498497
This may end up playing significantly in future elections.
So before doing something that's going to end up at this universally undesirable destination, we generally think it's a good idea to make sure it's what the voters really want. We can't quite do that because we only have *part* of the information about the future relationship, but even the modest compromises that TMay has already made seem to be enough to make a decent chunk of voters decide they'd rather not do the thing at all, so we generally think it would be dumb not to check with them while it's still possible for them to back out.
At least those are the practical considerations. The emotional part, particularly for younger people, is seeing these mainly elderly, inward-looking people deliberately trying to take away opportunities from ourselves and our friends. "Take back control" means that they want control over us, and we're finding them and their worldview increasingly repulsive. We would be narked off about them trying to do this even if we knew they would fail.
I think you can reasonably argue that redistributive payments and policies within the UK don't work nearly well enough (poorer areas would benefit from infrastructure investment, tax relief and business incentives; Scotland possibly receives too much subsidy from the centre, whereas Wales certainly receives too little.) But it's a damned sight better than the situation prevailing in Euroland.
There'll always be the puns.....
I don't disagree with some of your points but I was trying to bring it back to basics (as that Remainer PM once said).
Populism is an insult banded around for popular policies certain people dislike. A lovely subjective view by those who think their views are always right. We could mimic the policies and views of the EU if we wanted to, but that's no good for true Europhiles because it involve unreliable British voters. Ooh, populism, hiss, boo.
(In case anyone is wondering, that is a reference to Richard III, Act 3 scene 4.)
And the pound is so magnificent the SNP, weirdly, want to keep it even should their preferred option of Scotland leaving the UK come to pass.
Approval of the deal: 32%
Leaving on schedule: 23%
The difference presumably reflects the possibility that an extension would be needed to give effect to the deal.
The betting markets seem to think the probability of leaving with No Deal in March is very small.
I'd have a charity bet I was the only Remain voter in the congregation but despite that there was a just audible gasp and groan at the mention of the word " Brexit " as if to say ' not here here as well. '
On the pound: a transition would be desirable for Scotland, claiming a right to a currency union with a nation you just left, for an indeterminate period, remains an unhealthy blend of blind optimism and arrogant complacency.
But isn't it nice to discuss this rather than leaving the EU? See how much more civilised it is