politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : February 6th 2014

Hah!

Good evening, everyone.

Cheers, Mr. Hayfield.

It is quiet. Hope people aren't too soggy. I think the drizzle has stopped, for the time being.

Mr. M, one suspects it was sufficient precipitation to deter a sandal-wearer from democratic participation.

No LibDem candidate in St John's, I see - we'll be able to see if they really do mostly go Labour and how it compares with Peter Bruff, which seems to be a place?

Morris_Dancer said:

F1: everybody hates double points:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/26071434

Probably still going ahead, though.

Except doubling every race! People could get behind that.

What F1 needs is less of safety and more overtaking.These gimmicks will not increase it`s popularity.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Grandiose, well quite.

Mr. SMukesh, although F1's far safer than it was that cannot be taken for granted. I concur on the gimmicks, but the higher torque and lower downforce has seen much more sideways action out of corners which should increase entertainment and overtaking.

But the only action seems to be at the start and the pit-stops.Otherwise there`s just a lot of whirring around with little excitement during the race.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. SMukesh, you have a point regarding the latter half of 2013. But the start of 2012, and the season generally, was hugely exciting. The first 7 races had 7 different winners.

I wouldn`t know coz I stopped watching as it was too boring.

You may wish to start watching this season. Low reliability, engines being rather more important than before and so forth could make it the most interesting season since 2009.

SMukesh said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Grandiose, well quite.

Mr. SMukesh, although F1's far safer than it was that cannot be taken for granted. I concur on the gimmicks, but the higher torque and lower downforce has seen much more sideways action out of corners which should increase entertainment and overtaking.

But the only action seems to be at the start and the pit-stops.Otherwise there`s just a lot of whirring around with little excitement during the race.

F1's generally been like that for as long as I've been watching, and that's from when I was a kid in the late 1970s. We remember the good races each year, and soon forget the poor ones.

JosiasJessop said:

SMukesh said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Grandiose, well quite.

Mr. SMukesh, although F1's far safer than it was that cannot be taken for granted. I concur on the gimmicks, but the higher torque and lower downforce has seen much more sideways action out of corners which should increase entertainment and overtaking.

But the only action seems to be at the start and the pit-stops.Otherwise there`s just a lot of whirring around with little excitement during the race.

F1's generally been like that for as long as I've been watching, and that's from when I was a kid in the late 1970s. We remember the good races each year, and soon forget the poor ones.

Mr Dancer can correct me if am wrong but I remember that there was more overtaking in the 90`s.

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YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead now six points: CON 32%, LAB 38%, LD 10%, UKIP 14%

Jonathan said:

SMukesh said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Grandiose, well quite.

Mr. SMukesh, although F1's far safer than it was that cannot be taken for granted. I concur on the gimmicks, but the higher torque and lower downforce has seen much more sideways action out of corners which should increase entertainment and overtaking.

But the only action seems to be at the start and the pit-stops.Otherwise there`s just a lot of whirring around with little excitement during the race.

Has a lot in common with politics.

Politics has probably more in common with golf with lots of twists and turns and a flurry at the end.And golf is very interesting to watch

Peter Bruff ward is named after Peter Bruff, a Victorian entrepreneur. Englishelections.org.uk provides further explanation.

Morris_Dancer said:

As it's quiet, and I sadly don't have much to say about F1, a quick look ahead to the weekend's fixtures.

Saturday:
Ireland Vs Wales
Scotland Vs England

Sunday:
France Vs Italy

Disclaimer - due to a few factors I never saw a whole game, but did see bits of France/England. So my assessment could be very wrong.

The most competitive match will probably be in Ireland. There's rumour of an unusual edge between the Celtic nations, due to the dropping of O'Driscoll by Gatland during the Lions. Wales should win this, but Ireland's near win over the All Blacks means they can't take it lightly.

Scotland and England is interesting. Both teams need a first win, and the forthcoming referendum will add a bit more to the rivalry (not that it needed anything adding). I expect England to win fairly handily. If it's tight, Scotland could spring a surprise, but if England build up a head of steam they could take out their Parisian frustration on the auld enemy.

After edging England, France should stomp all over Italy. Then again, France has a great capacity to surprise, and could underwhelm. I still reckon they'll enjoy the biggest winning margin of the weekend.

Anyway, that's just idle rambling. I'll have a quick browse of the old markets and see if anything springs out.

@Morris

I think we'll walk it against the Scots, in what will be a typically brutal and inelegant Calcutta Cup.

The Ireland Wales match up looks tasty. Ireland won this fixture last time, depriving Wales, as it turned out, of another Grand Slam. It's at Lansdowne Road - no gimme for Wales...

JosiasJessop said:

SMukesh said:

JosiasJessop said:

SMukesh said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Grandiose, well quite.

Mr. SMukesh, although F1's far safer than it was that cannot be taken for granted. I concur on the gimmicks, but the higher torque and lower downforce has seen much more sideways action out of corners which should increase entertainment and overtaking.

But the only action seems to be at the start and the pit-stops.Otherwise there`s just a lot of whirring around with little excitement during the race.

F1's generally been like that for as long as I've been watching, and that's from when I was a kid in the late 1970s. We remember the good races each year, and soon forget the poor ones.

Mr Dancer can correct me if am wrong but I remember that there was more overtaking in the 90`s.

Overtakes aren't everything in racing (indeed, too much artificial overtaking can be annoying), but you might find the following site useful - it depends which half of the nineties you're thinking of:
http://cliptheapex.com/overtaking/

Also, the 1980s figures may have been artificially increased by the turbo/natural engine split. Turbos were banned from the 1989 season, which was when the decline started, if that chart is to be believed.

ng

That`s interesting.Seems to suggest my impression that there`s very little overtaking is wrong as there appears to have been a jump since 2010.

Newsnight leading on Cameron's pitch for the Union at the site of the London Olympics tomorrow.....

UKIP doing about the same nationally as in Wythenshawe if the latest polls are to be believed.

Don't be daft, Alex Salmond and the SNP Government hasn't exactly set the heather on fire for the Yes campaign in Scotland either.....

Danny565 said:

These Tories really are clueless if they think dispatching David Cameron to Scotland will do anything but harm the campaign...

Danny565 said:

These Tories really are clueless if they think dispatching David Cameron to Scotland will do anything but harm the campaign...

The funny thing is that he is going to do the one thing that is probably worse than going to Scotland which is to stay in London and preach from England about how the Scots should be proud of the Union.

Whoever came up with that idea must be a secret separatist.

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The Columnist Elects ‏@ColumnistElects 9m
Peter Bruff (Clacton) Result: CON - 38.1% (-3.2) LAB - 25.3% (+1.5) UKIP - 21.5% (+21.5) LDem - 15.2% (-19.9)

Areas with most underweight people:

Newham: 4.6%
Spelthorne: 4.2%
Barnsley: 4.1% (???)
Tower Hamlets: 4.0%
Harrow: 3.8%
Rochdale: 3.7%
Calderdale: 3.6%
Norwich: 3.5%
Leicester: 3.4%
Northampton: 3.3%
Forest Heath: 3.2%
Bolsover: 3.1% (???)
Barking & Dagenham: 3.1%
Nottingham: 3.0%
Bath & NE Somerset: 3.0%
Lambeth: 3.0%
Preston: 2.9%
Oldham: 2.8%
Swindon: 2.6%
Watford: 2.6%
Cherwell: 2.6%
Southwark: 2.6%
Portsmouth: 2.5%
Malvern Hills: 2.5%
Liverpool: 2.5%
Enfield: 2.5%
Redbridge: 2.5%
Colchester: 2.54
Crawley: 2.4%
Birmingham: 2.4%

http://www.noo.org.uk/visualisation

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The Columnist Elects ‏@ColumnistElects 48s
Arbourthorne (Sheffield) Result: LAB - 52.2% (-10.1) UKIP - 18.0% (+3.3) CON - 8.0% (-0.1) TUSC - 7.6% (+7.6) GRN - 5.3% (+2.1) ED - 2.8%

Poor show by David Starkey to take the mickey out of the audience member on QT

AndyJS said:

Between 1950 and 2005 the biggest swing to the Conservatives in either Manchester Wythenshawe or Wythenshawe & Sale East was 3.4% in 1970.

The Ted Heath effect.

Has Cameron been advised from north of the border that this is a good idea. If he genuinely is concerned about the future of the Union then I hope he is following advice. Or is he largely concerned about appealing to English unionists?

perdix said:

Danny565 said:

These Tories really are clueless if they think dispatching David Cameron to Scotland will do anything but harm the campaign...

Cam's leading from the front. The Prime Minister of the United Kingdom wants to see the kingdom stay united.

Sometimes he seems to understand that the best way he can do that is by keeping quiet and then sometimes he seems to forget. I was pleasantly surprised by how often people spontaneously brought up the referendum over the last few days in Scotland. I even found a 'yes' voter in Faslane!

MikeK said:

Does any serious person watch QT anymore?

It's a program well past its sell-by date

I used to be obsessed with QT, now the most I can stomach is about 3 minutes.

fitalass said:

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The Columnist Elects ‏@ColumnistElects 48s
Arbourthorne (Sheffield) Result: LAB - 52.2% (-10.1) UKIP - 18.0% (+3.3) CON - 8.0% (-0.1) TUSC - 7.6% (+7.6) GRN - 5.3% (+2.1) ED - 2.8%

Am I missing something, where is the Lib Dem percentage....don't tell me it was ;-)? Looking at the percentages for everyone else it should be 6.1%, though the fact most people reporting the result have left them out speaks volumes.

Michael portillo moment of the week on TW was the 400 grand comp paid to the useless cry baby policeman

The worlds gone mad

MikeK said:

Does any serious person watch QT anymore?

It's a program well past its sell-by date

Give us a bottle of Blue Nun any day! ;-)

nigel4england said:

Neil said:

nigel4england said:

Neil said:

nigel4england said:

he raised a great point about the lack of women MP's and Jack Dromey

What has the lack of women MP's got to do with Jack Dromey? Did he repeat the lie that his seat should have been AWS? We'll have to set Andrea on him.

Why was it a lie?

Because it's not true.

Evidence?

You want evidence that the claim someone made on tv was made up? Will the complete lack of any evidence that the made up claim is true suffice? It's a myth, particularly popular here on pbc despite being debunked by Andrea who knows more about Labour party selections than .. well .. anyone.

Neil said:

nigel4england said:

he raised a great point about the lack of women MP's and Jack Dromey

What has the lack of women MP's got to do with Jack Dromey? Did he repeat the lie that his seat should have been AWS? We'll have to set Andrea on him.

All a bit odd though wasn't it? Mysterious 'special panels' declaring it an 'open selection' after last minute meetings behind closed doors.

'Labour treasurer Jack Dromey has been shortlisted for the safe seat of Birmingham Erdington amid mounting controversy over the party’s secretive handling of selections [...] Fresh questions are being asked over the process of whittling down longlists, with many hopefuls being turned away without interview or explanation. The rationale behind the choice of all-women shortlists is also being questioned after a number of seats might have been expected to qualify – such as Erdington and Leyton – were declared open contests by a special panel of the party’s National Executive Committee.'

http://www.tribunemagazine.org/2010/02/dromey-goes-for-erdington-amid-secrecy-concerns/

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The Columnist Elects ‏@ColumnistElects 53m
Arbourthorne (Sheffield) Result: LAB - 52.2% (-10.1) UKIP - 18.0% (+3.3) CON - 8.0% (-0.1) TUSC - 7.6% (+7.6) GRN - 5.3% (+2.1) ED - 2.8%

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EDIT ON SHEFFIELD RESULT.

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ED stands for English Democrats.

fitalass said:

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The Columnist Elects ‏@ColumnistElects 48s
Arbourthorne (Sheffield) Result: LAB - 52.2% (-10.1) UKIP - 18.0% (+3.3) CON - 8.0% (-0.1) TUSC - 7.6% (+7.6) GRN - 5.3% (+2.1) ED - 2.8%

Agreed, quite thought provoking.

HYUFD said:

Have to say the Starkey v Galloway clash tonight was the best QT for some time, both highly intelligent and firmly right and leftwing respectively and as well as some excellent and provocative statements and some good debates including on education, with Starkey wanting to restore grammar schools and Galloway to abolish private schools

Incredible the stick Bercow gets on this week

HYUFD said:

Indeed, some agreement near the end but they really were a class apart from the other panellists

Galloway puts his case well and I agree with the gist of what Starkey says but not the way he says it

The policeman was interviewed on 5 live as I was driving home at about 1815 or so.

His side of the story of stopping the car was quite different, to the depiction in the papers and Youtube. The driver had refused arrest earlier, had recklessly driven off and had behaved in a way endangering the safety of police officers and others. He had deliberately locked his doors to prevent entry, hence the policeman smashing the drivers window to remove the keys and prevent a further drive off.

The policeman did win the case against his force, as he was victimised by the force after bad publicity. The evidence found for his account of events. Just because a man is 74 and had a stroke, does not make him less dangerous as a driver when evading pursuit, indeed his reactions may well be much slower than usual hot pursuit targets

I agree the compensation is excessive, but the rules on these things for unfair dismissal are to put the victim into a financial position as if they were not dismissed unfairly.

isam said:

Michael portillo moment of the week on TW was the 400 grand comp paid to the useless cry baby policeman

The worlds gone mad

I suspect that Bob Crow's long term success with these tube drivers strikes might be about to end if the London public decide enough is enough. At a time of austerity, the London tube service has got to start providing a cheaper and more efficient service, and with the focus totally on keeping costs down for the hard pressed London commuters. The RMT strikes cause such huge disruption and chaos to London, they are literally able to hold everyone else to ransom when they strike, and the costs from this are huge to both commuters and business as a result. I was certainly swayed with the argument raised tonight on BBCQT that there was a need to change our Union laws to recognise that the London tube is now a vital service, and therefore they should then have to provide a minimum service even when they go on strike.

Its now almost obscene to see tube drivers on the kinds of salaries that now far out strip the salaries of vital front line workers such as soldiers, nurses and the police. I was also surprised to discover that we are the only European country that doesn't already have Union laws that already recognise large city transport systems as a vital service. It is about time the Conservative party came up with a policy to change the Union laws to recognise this fact before the next GE and London Mayoral elections. And it will be interesting to see if Labour party will oppose this change of law, especially now they are constantly banging on about a cost of living crisis that needs to be addressed. This could be a tough one for them.

NickPalmer said:

fitalass said:

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The Columnist Elects ‏@ColumnistElects 48s
Arbourthorne (Sheffield) Result: LAB - 52.2% (-10.1) UKIP - 18.0% (+3.3) CON - 8.0% (-0.1) TUSC - 7.6% (+7.6) GRN - 5.3% (+2.1) ED - 2.8%

Thanks fitalass. That's quite a good TUSC result! All the news reports about wicked/feisty Bob Crow making people they could do with someone like him battling for them on the council? A meh result for UKIP - not sure they are really making significant progress up north, though Wythenshawe will tell us more.

fitalass said:

I suspect that Bob Crow's long term success with these tube drivers strikes might be about to end if the London public decide enough is enough. At a time of austerity, the London tube service has got to start providing a cheaper and more efficient service, and with the focus totally on keeping costs down for the hard pressed London commuters. The RMT strikes cause such huge disruption and chaos to London, they are literally able to hold everyone else to ransom when they strike, and the costs from this are huge to both commuters and business as a result. I was certainly swayed with the argument raised tonight on BBCQT that there was a need to change our Union laws to recognise that the London tube is now a vital service, and therefore they should then have to provide a minimum service even when they go on strike.

Its now almost obscene to see tube drivers on the kinds of salaries that now far out strip the salaries of vital front line workers such as soldiers, nurses and the police. I was also surprised to discover that we are the only European country that doesn't already have Union laws that already recognise large city transport systems as a vital service. It is about time the Conservative party came up with a policy to change the Union laws to recognise this fact before the next GE and London Mayoral elections. And it will be interesting to see if Labour party will oppose this change of law, especially now they are constantly banging on about a cost of living crisis that needs to be addressed. This could be a tough one for them.

NickPalmer said:

fitalass said:

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The Columnist Elects ‏@ColumnistElects 48s
Arbourthorne (Sheffield) Result: LAB - 52.2% (-10.1) UKIP - 18.0% (+3.3) CON - 8.0% (-0.1) TUSC - 7.6% (+7.6) GRN - 5.3% (+2.1) ED - 2.8%

Thanks fitalass. That's quite a good TUSC result! All the news reports about wicked/feisty Bob Crow making people they could do with someone like him battling for them on the council? A meh result for UKIP - not sure they are really making significant progress up north, though Wythenshawe will tell us more.

Boris is quite right not to give in to "Barbados Bob" Crow on this one. I'll tell you why - Because he's been a bloody good union leader. Too bloody good which means doing anything on the Underground now costs an absolute fortune. If I was a tube driver, I'd probably be in his union because he always negotiates whacking great pay deals... Of course for every winner there are losers... and it is London rate payers who fund all this.

Well I'm glad Boris is actually standing up to him !

isam said:

fitalass said:

Agreed, quite thought provoking.

HYUFD said:

Have to say the Starkey v Galloway clash tonight was the best QT for some time, both highly intelligent and firmly right and leftwing respectively and as well as some excellent and provocative statements and some good debates including on education, with Starkey wanting to restore grammar schools and Galloway to abolish private schools

They also agreed on quite a lot considering

People like Galloway and Starkey are great to have on Question Time because you know 100% the only agenda they have is their own. People with views generally considered to be either on the "firm" right (Hard-right is a completely hijacked term sadly) like Peter Hitchens can also have the odd one that is considered left wing (Renationalisation of the railways/Opposition to the Iraq war) - that is because these people think for themselves and are outside of any political bubble or even nicety to an editor.

I watched Galloway's pro-unionist speech the other day, and though I completely disagreed with him his central point that an independent Scotland would not be independent because the BoE would decide monetary policy was a very valid one.

Of course in the same way our courts are subservient to Strasbourg and countries in the Euro are monetarily tied to the "Bundesbank" ECB, so one could argue we aren't an independent country either. And other european countries even less so.

I've not seen this Question Time but I'm going to make damn sure I watch it !

Totally agree with you, but Bob Crow is only a great leader of the RMT because he can call out his tube drivers and then hold a city the size of London to ransom as result because of the sheer impact of the disruption and chaos his Union can bring about as a result. But how can anyone justify that kind of salary for a London tube driver, and one which the London commuters have to pick up the tab for in their travel costs while a front line soldier in Afghanistan, a beat bobby in London or a Staff Nurse with a degree in A&E doesn't earn anywhere near the same salary? Its obscene. I was genuinely shocked tonight to discover that we are the only country in Europe that allows a transport Union in large city this kind of power.

With a city the size of London, should workers in vital services like the NHS or the Police be forced into making hugely disruptive and costly changes to their transport arrangements just to get to their shift work on time? Especially as London also has the congestion charges and severe parking limitations as well. Its just plain crazy, why have Londoners and their elected politicians put up with this for so long? If Bob Crow had been a banker caught sunning himself in an exotic location in the run up to a major banking crisis, he would have been toast. And as a delicious aside, a Conservative policy to change the Union Laws to enable a basic tube service in the event of strikes would be the equivalent of the Labour party 50p tax rate elephant trap that Labour set for the Conservatives before the last GE..... Its about time that the RMT realised we are all in this together.

Pulpstar said:

fitalass said:

SNIP

NickPalmer said:

fitalass said:

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The Columnist Elects ‏@ColumnistElects 48s
Arbourthorne (Sheffield) Result: LAB - 52.2% (-10.1) UKIP - 18.0% (+3.3) CON - 8.0% (-0.1) TUSC - 7.6% (+7.6) GRN - 5.3% (+2.1) ED - 2.8%

Thanks fitalass. That's quite a good TUSC result! All the news reports about wicked/feisty Bob Crow making people they could do with someone like him battling for them on the council? A meh result for UKIP - not sure they are really making significant progress up north, though Wythenshawe will tell us more.

Boris is quite right not to give in to "Barbados Bob" Crow on this one. I'll tell you why - Because he's been a bloody good union leader. Too bloody good which means doing anything on the Underground now costs an absolute fortune. If I was a tube driver, I'd probably be in his union because he always negotiates whacking great pay deals... Of course for every winner there are losers... and it is London rate payers who fund all this.

Well I'm glad Boris is actually standing up to him !

Its worth noting that Nigel Farage is not above using the exact same populist and opportunistic political tactics to drive up support within his own targeted electoral base these days. I noted yesterday that Nigel Farage was quick to demand that the Government diverted the UK's overseas aid budget to help the flood victims. To me that hit a very sour note akin to Gordon Brown removing the 10p tax rate for the poorest earners to fund a middle income earners 2p income tax cut.

Seriously, Nigel Farage wants to cut aid to the poorest and most vulnerable flood victims of Bangladesh, or the millions of people in Syria displaced and now living in refugee camps on their borders during the winter months?! None of this pathetic posturing from idiots like Farage is going to stop the almost constant Atlantic storms currently battering the UK this winter, or the fact that the flood waters are still rising in some areas already severely damaged by these relentless storms. But the UK is a country that does have the infrastructure that can provide shelter and assistance for those effected by these floods, even on the current scale being witnessed. And we also have an insurance system in place that will help many people rebuild. That Farage's immediate response was to pull a cheap political gimmick, and one demanding that we take away the aid for those abroad who have none of these current structural support systems in place speaks volumes about the man and his party.

nigel4england said:

Galloway really is obnoxious, the days when he was entertaining are long gone.

I'm not actually convinced he believes the stuff he comes out with, more it gives him a good living and feeds his ego.

C'mon Neil, provide some evidence to back up your claims to nigel4england on this thread that this a lie, or that it was simple not true that Jack Dromey's seat was originally intended to be an AWS. Even a link to a PB thread where Andrea debunks this assertion to your satisfaction will do, I for one would be really interested his informed views on this issue as it might debunk this myth for me as well.

Neil said:

nigel4england said:

Neil said:

nigel4england said:

Neil said:

nigel4england said:

he raised a great point about the lack of women MP's and Jack Dromey

What has the lack of women MP's got to do with Jack Dromey? Did he repeat the lie that his seat should have been AWS? We'll have to set Andrea on him.

Why was it a lie?

Because it's not true.

Evidence?

You want evidence that the claim someone made on tv was made up? Will the complete lack of any evidence that the made up claim is true suffice? It's a myth, particularly popular here on pbc despite being debunked by Andrea who knows more about Labour party selections than .. well .. anyone.