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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ipsos-MORI sees gap closing by 2 and economic optimism surg
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ipsos-MORI sees gap closing by 2 and economic optimism surging
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LAB lead edges down 2 in February Ipsos-MORI political monitor pic.twitter.com/PEeyljqgAU — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 6, 2014
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And as a UKIP fan shouldn't you be worrying more about the money given to the wealthy first world countries of the EU - 18 BILLION quid per annum.
Time to sell off the London Underground.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-26069867
Mike's used January's VI figures/graphic instead of this month's.
On maneuvers.
Labour 7% ahead with those 'certain to vote' - that's pretty good at this stage of a parliament. Better economic prospects may be helping but Dave still needs a game changer.
Anyone have any views on likely turnout at the GE? I suspect it might be quite high. I think there was some sense of inevitability about 2010 as the country could surely not invite the one-eyed monster back in. But in 2015 I suspect there'll be a real choice between 'steady as she goes' and 'let's party'.
In Feb 2009, The Tories polled 48% and had a 20% lead with Ipsos-Mori
Just learned that Americans rhyme "shone" with "bone":
http://separatedbyacommonlanguage.blogspot.co.uk/
Canadians seem to pronounce Polypeptide as Pole-ypeptide.
Note the Lab Govt polled at the GE roughly what they polled with Mori 15 months before the election.
Wythenshawe & Sale East bye-election poll will be released shortly . Suspect only one Party will be happy........"
twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/431429205872885761
If people's expectations that the economy will improve are not matched by their experience come February next year they will be looking for an explanation of why that is so, and also somebody to blame.
But according to a survey I completed yesterday, Labour’s grip on the seat is firm. I found Labour on 61% of the vote with UKIP second on 15%, the Conservatives on 14% and the Liberal Democrats fourth on 5%.
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/02/with-a-week-to-go-in-wythenshawe-labours-grip-looks-firm/
Lol - suspect we are near peak Kip - they are not going to get above "spoiler" for the 2015 GE. Dreams of any MPs are nowhere.
Miliband's new best mates - that's all they are bringing to the party.
The Met Office have some interesting climate anomaly maps. If you select "annual" and "rainfall" you can see how dry 2010 and 2011 were over England, and two consecutive dry years is enough to being to create problems.
You can also look back through the decades and pick out the years in the 90s when we had recurrent drought issues, and a dry 1975 was important as preparation for 1976.
I have just heard it claimed that if there is no further rain this month the winter as a whole will be the third-wettest in the UK since 1910, which is quite extraordinary, though I haven't seen those figures myself.
2010 result was: Con 26%, Lab 44%, LD 22%, UKIP 3%
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/wythenshaweandsaleeast/
I'd be sweating on that poll if I'd piled on for UKIP 2nd at the ridiculously short odds.
Fortunately I didn't. A decent poll for my bets anyhow, but there could be some late swings in the 2nd place race.
Feel vindicated by this poll.
I assume @isam will adjust his betting lines based on this poll too
Months away, 15 of them, plus people like the Bullingdon rhetoric (there is no other line of attack) so Lab, finally, appear to be becoming an opposition party (albeit a petty, spiteful one).
Great - doesn't change a thing. The poll is a bit more opposition angled vs NOTA but also NOTA has an actual party to indicate a preference for.
Lab + 17, LD - 17
Ukip +12, Con - 12
There will probably be a very low turnout for this seat so there may be a bit more variation in actual results than shown in the poll - I don't know how motivated Labour voters are for instance.
The Tories don't seem that motivated about this seat - certainly their candidate isn't a big hitter.
The poster battle around my area on the Wythenshawe side of the constituency shows 2 LD posters, one Labour and one Raving Loony - I think we get more during council elections.
South Shields, for example, saw the LD share fall from 14.2 to 1.4: a loss of almost exactly 90% of their previous share, and a decline of 93.2% in terms of votes.
He'll be out on tag in 3 months.
But will bowl like Glenn McGrath in the t20 World Cup so England will win it.
http://order-order.com/2014/02/06/farage-complains-to-electoral-commission-over-labour-postal-votes-accuses-canvassers-of-intimidatory-tactics/
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/labourtargets/
But I suspect the Conservatives will struggle to take seats from the Libs in the South of England, largely thanks to UKIP.
30-35 feels perhaps very slightly low, especially if the Libs pick up OxwAb or Watford. But I would feel very comfortable selling 40 seats.
The danger for the Conservatives is that in constituencies like Erewash the LibDem vote is likely to collapse, and go to Labour.
Hmmm...
1. Are there methodological problems with the polling?
2. Was there a shift of opinion on the ground between the poll and the vote?
3. To what extent are both (1) and (2) attributable to (a) shifts between voting intentions and (b) shifts between voting at all and not voting?
By-elections have dynamics all of their own - and the polling itself can shift them. However, if the figures are reasonably reliable in terms of identifying VI, then it follows that even if there are shifts in VI and turnout intention (TI?) during the general election campaign, we ought to be able to adjust the constituency polls accordingly to account for them.
Lab 45%
Ukip 13%
Con 9%
LD 2%
Other/DK/refused 30%
Room for plenty of change? That's based on turnout of 50%
Around 40% in the Trafford wards and 25% in the Manchester ones.
FPT, those on the previous thread who were arguing we should cut Russia some slack over the gat thing because some other countries are worse, might want to watch Liz McKean's Dispatches:
http://www.channel4.com/programmes/dispatches/4od#3651833
We had this debate before but as I understand it the rules have changed from May 2014. Voter registration per household will be replaced by individual voter registration. In order to be registered you will need a date of birth and NI number.
It should, in theory anyway, be more difficult to register 20 bogus voters, get postal vote forms for them, and post the the votes.
In theory.
Probably most of the DK's and refused will not vote, so I'm not sure the shares Millsy originally gave are meaningful. Indeed, I would be astonished if turnout was anywhere near 50%. It'll do well to hit 40%, especially if it's wet on the day.
I doubt Labour's winning margin will be as emphatic as the poll indicates, but I expect them to be about 20% ahead of UKIP.
It's quite possible that restricting postal votes would actually disproportionally disadvantage Labour, given historical turnout figures.
Not to mention that Occam's razor suggests Labour wouldn't have expanded postal voting quite so aggressively if they didn't think it would help them.
"Not surprisingly, those who have switched to UKIP – largely but by no means exclusively from the Tories – are more likely than most to say they are voting tactically to try to stop another party from winning. They are more likely still to say they are voting as a protest: nine in ten of them say they want to show they are unhappy with all the main parties at the moment.
Despite Labour’s huge overall lead, only a minority of voters in the constituency (43%) say they would rather have Ed Miliband as Prime Minister than David Cameron. In fact, a quarter of Labour voters (and more than half of UKIP supporters) say either that they are satisfied with Cameron or that they prefer him to the alternative.
When it comes to the economy, voters are more likely to say they think things will get better over the next year for the country as a whole (and only 29% think that) than to expect any improvement for themselves and their families (19%).
Even so – Miliband and Ed Balls are only five points ahead of Cameron and George Osborne (40% to 35%) on being trusted to manage the economy in the best interests of Britain. One in five Labour voters trust the PM and Chancellor more than their own party’s team.
As for the campaign on the ground, UKIP are making their presence felt. Nearly half (47%) of voters in the constituency say the party has put literature through their door, compared to 63% from Labour, 35% from the Conservatives and 18% from the Lib Dems."
If you make voting too easy people will vote without care or little thought . That's not being democratic that's just encouraging triviality
John Leech is a class act, but if the Lib Dems hold Manchester Withington in 2015 I think they'd be looking at substantial net gains across the UK.
Wouldn't it be less surprising if it turned out to be another thing they got wrong?
The restrictions on freedom of assembly that have been imposed over the last couple of decades have done much more to undermine democracy in this country than pettyfogging disputes over postal voting or gerrymandering.
On the other hand, voting creates events that are easy to frame bets on, so it does bring some advantages.