politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The “Wisdom of Crowds/PBers”: What you/they think will happ
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The “Wisdom of Crowds/PBers”: What you/they think will happen in 2014
(Firstly, apologies for the delay in getting these predictions released – I’ve been absolutely flat out at work with year-end, so thanks for your patience.)
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Like my colleague Ali, who's a second generation immigrant. His Persian (his dad's from Iran) is - by his own admission - rubbish. His kid's is totally non-existent.
From memory oil is over 10% of the scottish economy, it's not a bonus it's fundamental. What else are you going to fall back on the successful banking sector ?
Scotland won't have a successful banking sector though. If they go for Sterling then it will be regulated by the BoE and there would be huge pressure to relocate as ultimately the English could not tolerate a foreign power creaing money and derivative positions which English taxpayers were liable for. We see from the Euro that currency union requires transfer union and an England that had just been told to F off would not do that. Edinburgh's current success comes from its position as a branch office of the City
* Although one of the main reasons for that, perhaps, is the continual importing of spouses from Pakistan, so although while the children are fourth-generation in one sense, they're probably second- and third-generation too. Ending the culture of importing husbands and wives would do more to help integration than anything else.
I think more of an explanation might be that many (or at least some) of those parents who upsticked, and took themselves away from their friends and family to a foreign country, did so so their kids could succeed in a way they never could.
Just as, when poverty stricken Eastern European Jews made the trip to America 100 years ago, the parents were determined their kids would end up doctors, even if they had just been shoe shine boys.
Of course, I'm glossing, and generalising.
But my general point is this: people who come to this country for the right reasons (to work and to better themselves) generally instil in their kids the right lessons (and have kids who perform well at school). Those who come to this country for the wrong reasons (to live off the British state), will tend to instil the wrong lessons in their kids.
Therefore, it is incumbent on the British state to ensure that the incentives that are put in place are the right ones.
Granted, the Republicans have shown a remarkable ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in Senate contests, but one can't rely on that happening indefinitely.
"Mm, yes, that is pretty much the analysis (bearing in mind that a lot of Unionist criticism however carefully fails to make the point that if their analysis is correct, that the Scottish economy is in the sharn, then the UK economy is if anything in deeper doo).
However, there is a major report coming out in the FT tonight/tomorrow so it may be as well to wait to see what that says - from the taster on wingsoverscotland it looks as if it will be very relevant (owed to @Mick_Pork for spotting it - http://wingsoverscotland.com/unleashing-a-firestorm/)"
Well of course the UK economy is in the crap. Anyone laughnig at Scotland declining oil reserves would do well to remember it's the UK reserves which are declining too and at present none of the main parties have a clue what to do about replacing it.
As for WoS it always bigs things up, it's like expecting the Express to miss property prices.
malcolmg said:
Poor dears in HOL are upset about their conditions, can you imagine
“House of Lords is no longer a place for fine dining, peers gripe
A full roast dinner costs £9.50. Peers also receive a £300-a-day expenses allowance for attending the House of Lords.
£9.50 sounds fair for a roast. Is the point of the piece to make it sound too expensive, too cheap or about right ?
Perhaps it's my distance from London but I honestly can't tell...
Having his life scarred due to his Tiara wearing wife was the one that concerned me, what a way to treat troughers.
http://www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/politics/mike-hancock-quits-portsmouth-city-council-cabinet-position-1-5852416
That said, the split of the predictions doesn't indicate the odds: if every respondent thought a two-outcome event was a 51-49 chance in favour of outcome A, then that would appear as a 100-0 response for A in the summary.
Only 3 regions do so London, SE and Scotland. Take out oil and Scotland is somewhere around Lancashire. Or put another way the Labour recession killed off nearly 10% of the economy that's what it would be like until some new businesses took over or enough people emigrated.
Other White 83%
White Irish 83%
White British 82%
Total 80%
Indian 80%
Mixed White & Asian 75%
Chinese 74%
Other Mixed 73%
Black Caribbean 73%
Other Asian 70%
Mixed White & Black African 69%
Mixed White & Black Caribbean 66%
Other 65%
Black African 65%
Other Black 64%
Pakistani 58%
Bangladeshi 55%
Arab 45%
White Gypsy or Irish Traveller 45%
(Data calculated from here: http://www.ethnicity.ac.uk/census/CoDE-Employment-Census-Briefing.pdf
I had to assume equal numbers of men and women in the country, but this didn't seem like an unreasonable assumption.)
Do you think Scotland would use the Pound if England was not OK with that? If England was OK what degree of control would they then require? Is Scotland's financial services industry dependent on its currently being within the Sterling zone? How would an effectively independent England react to manage competition in its key industry from a new foreign competitor? The City is a gorilla and would react entirely predictably if it styarted to see competitive loss of business north of the border. I'm not being a 'PB Tory'. I just genuinely believe that an independent Scotland would see a steady cratering of its financial services industry.
Oil? I fully agree Scotland would wish to make as good a go of the oil industry as it can while the resources are still economically viable. The Shia Muslims' plans to crush the Sunnis didn't take your lot into account. But their plans look more than 50/50 to succeed over some timescale and Scotland would join Russia, Venezuela, Norway and many other oil states in feeling the pain.
D 200
(vacant 3)
nothing to worry about on the US ISM numbers, Robert?
Good luck!
40 years?
These children aren't immigrants remember, they are British citizens that don't have English as their first language. Am I wrong to be bothered/worried?
May I suggest Humane Society International.
That said, I am surprised by the weakness in the US. I wonder if (a) the extremely cold weather and (b) the rising gas price (now more than 50% above early December) are having an impact.
"2417 God entrusted animals to the stewardship of those whom he created in his own image. Hence it is legitimate to use animals for food and clothing. They may be domesticated to help man in his work and leisure. Medical and scientific experimentation on animals is a morally acceptable practice if it remains within reasonable limits and contributes to caring for or saving human lives.
2418 It is contrary to human dignity to cause animals to suffer or die needlessly. It is likewise unworthy to spend money on them that should as a priority go to the relief of human misery. One can love animals; one should not direct to them the affection due only to persons. "
I'd read that as saying medical experimentation is acceptable but it would be difficult to describe stuff like cosmetics testing (especially as the Church isn't a huge fan of human vanity either...) as "saving human lives" or indeed as anything other than needless suffering.
As for a point of contact, have you tried looking up the websites of the Vatican Press Office or Vatican Information Service? Even if they don't have what you want themselves they should be able to put you in touch with someone who would.
I suppose the issue is that no one wants to see an economy tapering in line with the Fed's tapering....
However, I believe the kids of these kids are highly unlikely not to have English as their first language, so one would expect that over time - and assuming that non-EU immigration stays at its current much more modest level - that the effect should fade.
It's like Minnesota in the US. 100 years ago, Swedish and German were the most common languages there - and there would be renewed waves of immigration from those countries post WW1. Yet, the language of the immigrants died out, because the immigrants kids found it economically advantageous to speak English rather than to stick with the language of their parents.
Edinburgh's current success in the financial services industry comes from its long-standing fund management industry (from memory it is c. 6/7 globally - below New York, London, Tokyo, Paris, Frankfurt, but in line with Milan and above Stockholm).
Fund management doesn't have the same issues with LoLR that banking does.
Banking in any meaningful scale is relatively new. Don't forget until around 2000/2001 both RBS and HBOS were parochial lenders of medium size and primarily focused on the domestic Scottish market.
The true cost of corruption was "probably much higher" than 120bn.
Three-quarters of Europeans surveyed for the Commission study said that corruption was widespread, and more than half said the level had increased.
I never saw that one coming.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26014387
Mr. Socrates, you stole my thunder! I logged in to post about that.
Paying the EU every year is like pouring gold into a colander.
www.cbcew.org.uk
However, that is not what the article quoted is about. The article is about the corruption that is endemic in European countries - particularly Italy.
Perhaps it was in Europe - below London, Paris, Frankfurt, Zurich and in line with Milan?
A good day.
But it's just the sweeping assumption that some people make that financial services is (a) only banking and (b) everything in the UK is dependent on London that irritates me sometimes.
Wealth management is consistently more profitable than investment banking
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-26017684
Will Shadsy by putting up a market on comments by the Duke of Edinburgh regarding the First Lady/Hollande's shenanigans?
If children of immigrants are living in areas where the country/culture their parents emigrated from is dominant, and attending schools where the often very large majority speaks the language of that country, I can only see the percentage of people who speak don't speak English at home increasing.
Good for the Tories.
Please will all parties do likewise to purge themselves of their scumbags.
Betway are 18/1 Uche of Villarreal to score a hat trick tonight, and I make that good bet
A free headline for tomorrow's tabloids.
I would guess it's still well above the level needed to increase English spoken as a mother tongue here. Your report also addresses labour migration. As my previous numbers showed, approximately half of some ethnic groups are not coming to work.
http://217.154.230.218/NR/rdonlyres/661216D8-AD60-486B-A96F-EE75BB61B28A/0/BC_RS_GFC7full.pdf
By 2012 they are down at #19 in Europe (vs. #7) and #54 globally (vs #37 in 2011), although to be fair this is down to others improving while Edinburgh remains static.
http://www.longfinance.net/images/PDF/GFCI_25March2013.pdf
A rather good Alex today with political connotations: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/alex/
I suspect it is pretty near the mark. I suspect most tories are little short of gobsmacked how fast the economy has taken off and are nervous about whether there will be another slowdown before May 2015.
No more "fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists" from the Cameroons. Bit hard to keep that up if there's a nasty party already half-full of "fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists" Or indeed "swivel-eyed loons" as the chumocracy would put it.
*chortle*
But it's just the sweeping assumption that some people make that financial services is (a) only banking and (b) everything in the UK is dependent on London that irritates me sometimes.
Accepted. But scale matters. Where do the lawyers hang around? Where the clients are. Where are the insurers? Near their market. All the legal, insurance, banking, trading, asset management, accounting, risk management, broking, hedgie, etc players deal off each other to a significant extent. London/the UK is a hard market to emulate precisely because it has scale in every aspect of financial services. If Scotland goes it alone the fact of having a solid asset management piece today (in a unitary UK) may not be enough.
Sure, I'm not a financial services market guru (although I was a merchant banker once and am a qualified accountant and risk manager now) - but I do think saying bye to London politically will to some extent mean saying bye to the financial services business as well.
Talk about Education if you want. 10 seconds after you start I'll be bringing up Wales, which notably silenced you last time.
Get used to it, because that's what's going to happen over the next 15 months
Everyone in this country must be able to speak English.
I would expect the banking sector to move, and possibly the insurance industry. I don't see any particular reason why the retail fund management industry would need to shift. So long as they have critical mass, then people will come to them.
[N]ewly released numbers, collected and analyzed over a several-year period, show what disappointed investors have long surmised: Around half of these commercial wind park enterprises are doing so poorly that investors can count themselves lucky if they even get their initial investment back after the 20 year duration.
The study, based on 1,150 annual reports, comes from Werner Daldorf, head of the Investment Committee at the German Wind Energy Association.
Interesting article in Der Spiegel on the perils for investors.
http://bit.ly/1bjYjAW
UKIP Daily @UKIP_Daily 14m
Nigel Farage: Ukip's controversial politicians have all defected from the Conservatives http://fw.to/65QHDYQ **Don't let them join
LOL
2014-02-03 15:59 Ikechukwu Jarak Uche @ 19.00 single
1 bet * 50 GBP 50 GBP Free Bet 900 GBP (Estimated)
Thanks,
Absolutely not. As a welshman born and educated, I'm utterly incandescent about the way Labour has destroyed the life chances of the young people of my country - particularly the young people of disadvantaged communities.
First world funding, third world results, a bunch of excuses, a complete lack of contrition.
I'm just anxious that labour don;t get more chances to ruin the life chances of English young people as well as their welsh counterparts.
Cammie and Osbrowne did.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/9/96/UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png
Incidently that's a reminder for those for those claiming the polls are static. Yes, since about September last year they have been for all four parties. However, the kippers are very slowly edging up and it was last Feb that really saw their rise before the May local elections hit the VI polling. So you would expect it to start kicking in with a vengeance very soon if it mirrors the kind of rise we saw last year. Of course after May the softest tory kipper voters jump back to the tories fairly sharpish yet they still keep enough tories to put the kipper VI higher at the end of 2013 than the start.
Interesting chart here showing where family migration is coming from - figure 3:
http://www.migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/sites/files/migobs/Briefing - Family and Dependents.pdf
That's almost 60k a year not coming to work. I can't imagine they're going to integrate quickly.
Incidentally, who are all these dependents of students coming in? Does a student need to prove financial funds for their dependent to come? How much?