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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PB Video Analaysis: The UK Economy – It’s Not About The Brexit

From the outside the UK economy looks pretty healthy. Unemployment is low and economic growth has been more consistent than any of its EU peers. Little wonder its politicians regard it as a success story.
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It asks me to LEAVE a comment. Why not Remain with a comment?
And the starter comment (so far)
You guys misunderstand me. Everyone on here does except for TSE. I like to view politics through the prism of early 90s TV scifi.
May's dodgy deal is the work of a Vorlon. Me, I am a Shadow.
God I loved Vir.
Private schools often have more disadvantaged pupils in their classrooms than neighbouring state grammars because of fast-growing bursary programmes, according to leading heads in the independent sector.
They say that at fee-paying schools, up to 20 per cent of pupils are on bursaries, the majority of which go to pupils who would qualify for free school meals, the benchmark for poverty.
This compares with an average of only 3 per cent of children at grammar schools — which are funded by the taxpayer and select their intake — being entitled to free school meals.
Grammar schools are the pineapple on pizza of education.
Survation/Scotland in Union:
Westminster VI
•SNP 38% (-2)
•Con 26% (-1)
•Lab 24% (+1)
•Lib 8% (+1)
Panelbase for Scottish Independence Foundation.
Westminster voting intention (Scotland):
SNP 37% (-1)
Con 28% (+1)
Lab 25% (+1)
Lib 7% (+1)
Grn 2% (n/c)
UKIP 2% (-1)
Up to 20% and on average 3% are not comparable measures in an unbiased world.
I can't get past the paywall on that article.
They adversely affect ordinary working class families perhaps.
https://twitter.com/KathyLette/status/1064546833421271040
One approach is that there is no pass mark for the 11+. Places are offered to the pupils getting the highest scores.
The other approach is that there is a pass mark. The places are then allocated to those achieving a pass mark using normal admission criteria giving priority for siblings, etc.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel will not travel to Brussels on Sunday unless there is an agreement ready to sign, officials said. This is being interpreted as a warning to other European countries not to demand more additions to the text of the deal as much as a signal to the U.K., one official said.
I lived on a council estate and I really would not have called my parents as "well educated"
Both of my brothers also attended the same school.
This working class family did ok out of them - as did the lad who lived with his mum in a tower block.
I can only think of one lad who I thought of as well off.
The idea of my parents having money for tutors actually made me smile.
I dunno if the 11+ is the same these days, but when I took it in 1978 it seemed to be just an IQ test for verbal and mathematical reasoning.
I'm not an economist and while viewing your video I was persuaded by your argument, which may indeed be valid. But then I come here to the comments and David L questions whether our low savings rate are causal in your argument? David can you expand on that or Robert can you refute David's objection to your argument?
Ta.
Laura Kuenssberg
Verified account
@bbclaurak
3h3 hours ago
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Good q from Corbyn - are there any circumstances where UK would leave without a deal - PM avoids answering
Actual data would be illuminating.
Did you mean btw that it is a lot less painful to save less than to save more (at 5mins-odd)?
Edit: ah I see you mean if there has to be a reversal ie while it lasts?
"We have also failed to find any evidence of collateral harm to any other schools, arising from the existence of grammar schools. Overall, schools are just as likely to be performing well, whether or not they are ‘creamed’ by a grammar school. Hence, on the basis of KS4 performance at least, there do not appear to be strong grounds for abolishing selection as it currently operates."
Named after arguably the best Sci-Fi writer of all time. He may not have written many novels but Alfred Bester's stories were all perfect gems of science fiction.
BBC POLITICAL RESPONDENT ACCIDENTALLY SAYS SOMETHING GOOD ABOUT LABOUR
SEND CORRECTIVE DRONES IMMEDIATELY
SUSPECT UNIT TO BE TERMINATED AND REPLACED
+++ MESSAGE ENDS +++
Are you sure NATO are operating in Somalia these days? A close friend of mine (a British Colonel) has just finished a tour in Somalia (he got back yesterday after 8 months away) as a military liaison but he was part of an EU mission not NATO. He was awarded an EU medal but was commenting about how he cannot wear it on his uniform in the UK.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/11/20/dup-orders-mps-ignore-agreement-vote-conservatives-withdrawing/
This time the Labour whips have been told too, so expect many more shenanigans.
https://metro.co.uk/2018/11/18/dog-accused-of-racist-hate-crime-for-pooing-outside-someones-front-door-8151924/
What happens if our parliament accepts the deal as it currently is, and then other parties in the EU insist on changes to it?
The deal will no longer be what our MPs voted to accept.
Good afternoon, everyone.
My personal view is that, given the mixed results from studies, the case for grammar schools is not proven either way, for or against.
A far as I’m aware, the per pupil funding is precisely the same as other state schools (allowing for various in FSM numbers).
As to what happens once the meaningful vote goes against the deal... The legislation helpfully does not say. Presumably this is where Parliament comes in.
s.13 says:
(2) So far as practicable, a Minister of the Crown must make arrangements for the motion mentioned in subsection (1)(b) [the meaningful vote] to be debated and voted on by the House of Commons before the European Parliament decides whether it consents to the withdrawal agreement being concluded on behalf of the EU in accordance with Article 50(2) of the Treaty on European Union.
I think the HoC motion will be after Commission approval though.
UK party ready to form minority administration if Brexit chaos leaves Tories unable to rule"
https://www.ft.com/content/1bfa2ed4-ed7d-11e8-89c8-d36339d835c0
https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/South-Korea-strives-to-beat-Japan-and-China-to-UK-trade-deal
SEOUL -- South Korea is striving to beat Asian rivals Japan and China to a free trade deal with the U.K., once the nation leaves the European Union.
The trade ministry in Seoul hosted a hearing Wednesday to discuss the economic benefits of a post-Brexit deal with the U.K., South Korea's second-largest trade partner in the EU.
"It is important who can strike a better deal [with the UK] more quickly," said Park Chun-il, a director at Korea International Trade Association. "l think the government is moving timely to be prepared in advance."...
The EU want a backstop before a FP is agreed.
Labour's proposals are a FP, they still ned a backstop before that conversation happens.
They could have agreed a backstop which is their end state, but then they have a backstop and no need for a FP, not a FP without a backstop.
You do not know that the meaningful vote will reject it. If the meaingful vote, as seems likely, is sequenced with amendments first, a second referendum will certainly be put forward and if it falls that ends a second vote. Of course if it passes and then the meaningful vote on the deal is subject to the second referendum and the government would have to put legislation to the HOC to that effect.
However, in the circumstances the second referendum falls the choice then becomes deal or no deal.
It is at that point the deal is likely to pass
It is for these reasons I believe that TM may win the day
I make this comments, hopefully without reflecting bias in my view but based on probable outcomes
And as they say, other views are no doubt available
a) went to a fee-paying private primary school where the focus was solely on passing the test
b) had a private tutor or
c) had a parent able to tutor them
It is no longer question of all the kids ust turning up and sitting the test one day without any prior warning, as apparently it was in the 1970s. Only about 50% of kids round here even sit the test as the rest are not entered by their (mainly working class) parents. It is very unlikely that a 10-year-old could pass the non-Verbal reasoning part of the test without some prior practice, even adults would struggle. State primary schools do not teach this and are barred from preparing their kids specifically for the test.
Grammar schools take 23% of the brightest kids and most motivated parents away from surrounding schools. In doing so they take away many of the best role models and most aspirational people. Grammar schools prevent social mobility rather than enhancing it.
I was mortified.
(Plod outside was rather amused though....)
Similarly our two children went to grammar school without being tutored, although you need to live in the right county nowadays. My old grammar school is in a non grammar county and became a private school.
From Article 50(2):
In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.
The European Council is the Executive
The European Parliament is the legislature
The European Commission is the Civil Service
approximately anyway.
The European Parliament is the Democratic Body (whatever that means)
The European Commission is the Executive
At least, that's what Delors wanted.
Brexiteers being peeled off, Ken Clarke voting in favour - just needs a concession or two for the DUP and May could be home and hosed. No doubt with a few Labour MPs staying away or backing her.
Odds moving in Mays favour I think.
If you are in a county with Grammar schools like Lincolnshire then every child who is considered suitable by the Junior school for entry is tutored by that school on the basics of the 11+. There is no additional tutoring necessary.
And as I have already pointed out, the studies show that there is no drop in standards at the non selective schools who are in Grammar catchment areas.
Grammar schools undoubtedly promote social mobility.