politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » US midterms early voting is reaching presidential election lev

OldKingCole said:

CarlottaVance said:

Homophobe:

https://twitter.com/dupleader/status/1055825818365161477?s=21

Hate the sin but love the sinner. Or something like that. Not normally a sentiment I’ve associated with the DUP, though.

Just checking for Ian Paisley Jr's comment.

Alistair said:

JosiasJessop said:

I'm starting to think that the US is no longer a functioning democracy. This is not directly to do with partisan politics, but to the fact they rely on processes and systems that cannot guarantee the results reflect the voters' views.

The old voting machines were bad enough (remember Mr Hanging Chad?), but since then things have got worse; including newer, worse machines and potential foreign interventions.

I will not be able to say for sure that whoever 'wins' the midterms will be the real winner.

And this is a terrible place for a democracy to end up.

The American obsession with voting machines over paper ballots is genuinely perplexing to me.

Along with the whole incredibly limited voting locations in, ahem, certain neighbourhoods resulting in multi hour long waits.

As with everything in the US, it varies a lot by state. Here in the State of New York, there are plenty of local polling places and polling hours are 6am-9pm. so broadly similar to the UK. We vote by filling out a paper ballot by filling out ovals with a pencil along the lines of a multiple-choice test. The paper ballot is then read by a machine at the polling station. This is for practicality - this year, we'll be voting for Governor, US Senator, US Representative, State Senator, State Representative, judges, and in some places local Trustees (councillors).

My understanding is that there's not a "count" in the British sense, rather that at the close of polling the totals are read off the machine and phoned through to the Board of Elections, with for legal certification, the poll staff write down the results and certify them and deliver that certificate and the paper ballots to the BoE afterwards.

We don't have early voting in NYS, but we do have on-demand absentee ballots: to qualify you need to state you'll be out of your county / NYC on polling day or be otherwise unable to attend in person but this is self-certified.

Other states may have shorter polling hours and fewer polling places but most offer early voting sometimes several weeks ahead of polling day. Some western states have switched to all-postal voting.

OldKingCole said:

kjh said:

OldKingCole said:

Interesting about bank robberies. In rural and semi rural East Anglia there seems to be a fashion for stealing heavy diggers and such and using them to remove ATMs from, particularly, Co-op supermarkets. The digger is usually abandoned once no longer useful and the ATM put on a utility vehicle and never seen again.
There seems to be one of these robberies every couple of weeks!

We get loads of them in Surrey also. In several cases they damn near destroy the building. A local Nationwide never opened again.

They raided somewhere opposite a block of flats not far from us, woke up the residents, one of whom took a video of what went on.
No, AFAIK no-one’s been arrested.
How much cash is there in a ‘full’ ATM?

I can explain this I think.

The Coop do not habitually build a strong-room type structure around their cash machines in the smaller locations, whereas eg Tesco Metro do and put teh machines in the external walls.

Hence the Coop can more easily be attacked by JCB.

(Note to constabulary: this is not advice to PBers on how to carry out a raid, as it is already published in umpteen newspapers.)

Morris_Dancer said:

Arrest over US mail bombings:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-45996655

Amazingly enough he seems to have been driving around in some sort of MAGA Trump van plastered with screenshots from 4chan. Hardly keeping a low profile!

He's probably another Great Awakening QAnon devotee, like the Hoover Dam nutter.

I'm not saying the alleged bombers van fits certain stereotypes but, well...

https://twitter.com/JesseRodriguez/status/1055843192497733632?s=19

Are we really saying that Hain is so cretinously stupid as not to think: "Hmmmm, I get some money from that law firm. I wonder if there might be a conflict ..."

Because that is really cretinously stupid.

OldKingCole said:

MattW said:

OldKingCole said:

kjh said:

OldKingCole said:

Interesting about bank robberies. In rural and semi rural East Anglia there seems to be a fashion for stealing heavy diggers and such and using them to remove ATMs from, particularly, Co-op supermarkets. The digger is usually abandoned once no longer useful and the ATM put on a utility vehicle and never seen again.
There seems to be one of these robberies every couple of weeks!

We get loads of them in Surrey also. In several cases they damn near destroy the building. A local Nationwide never opened again.

They raided somewhere opposite a block of flats not far from us, woke up the residents, one of whom took a video of what went on.
No, AFAIK no-one’s been arrested.
How much cash is there in a ‘full’ ATM?

I can explain this I think.

The Coop do not habitually build a strong-room type structure around their cash machines in the smaller locations, whereas eg Tesco Metro do and put teh machines in the external walls.

Hence the Coop can more easily be attacked by JCB.

(Note to constabulary: this is not advice to PBers on how to carry out a raid, as it is already published in umpteen newspapers.)

I won’t mention it to my friend in the pub.

If your friend is called Bob he will know already.

JosiasJessop said:

Ah, the '"I am a cretin" defence. It's always useful.

I am not in any way legally minded: might this get him or the company in trouble legally, or with the HoL's authorities ?

IANAL, but I wouldn't have thought there was any direct legal danger to him or the law firm. It's not an offence to hire an idiot!

As for the HoL, I imagine it will simply be a case of him making a statement in the Lords as soon as possible to clarify the position and apologise for not checking for a possible conflict of interest. I don't think it will go any further.

MattW said:

OldKingCole said:

kjh said:

OldKingCole said:

Interesting about bank robberies. In rural and semi rural East Anglia there seems to be a fashion for stealing heavy diggers and such and using them to remove ATMs from, particularly, Co-op supermarkets. The digger is usually abandoned once no longer useful and the ATM put on a utility vehicle and never seen again.
There seems to be one of these robberies every couple of weeks!

We get loads of them in Surrey also. In several cases they damn near destroy the building. A local Nationwide never opened again.

They raided somewhere opposite a block of flats not far from us, woke up the residents, one of whom took a video of what went on.
No, AFAIK no-one’s been arrested.
How much cash is there in a ‘full’ ATM?

I can explain this I think.

The Coop do not habitually build a strong-room type structure around their cash machines in the smaller locations, whereas eg Tesco Metro do and put teh machines in the external walls.

Hence the Coop can more easily be attacked by JCB.

(Note to constabulary: this is not advice to PBers on how to carry out a raid, as it is already published in umpteen newspapers.)

The standalone ATM in a shop that was involved in an explosion, that resulted in the whole three floor building pancaking down onto it was unrecognisable when we first found it in the cellar. We didn't know what it was, but the rozzers knew exactly what they were looking for. As far as I could tell, the cash box had succumbed to the resulting fire and not a lot was left.It would have been interesting to know how much had been in it!

OldKingCole said:

MattW said:

OldKingCole said:

MattW said:

OldKingCole said:

kjh said:

OldKingCole said:

Interesting about bank robberies. In rural and semi rural East Anglia there seems to be a fashion for stealing heavy diggers and such and using them to remove ATMs from, particularly, Co-op supermarkets. The digger is usually abandoned once no longer useful and the ATM put on a utility vehicle and never seen again.
There seems to be one of these robberies every couple of weeks!

We get loads of them in Surrey also. In several cases they damn near destroy the building. A local Nationwide never opened again.

They raided somewhere opposite a block of flats not far from us, woke up the residents, one of whom took a video of what went on.
No, AFAIK no-one’s been arrested.
How much cash is there in a ‘full’ ATM?

I can explain this I think.

The Coop do not habitually build a strong-room type structure around their cash machines in the smaller locations, whereas eg Tesco Metro do and put teh machines in the external walls.

Hence the Coop can more easily be attacked by JCB.

(Note to constabulary: this is not advice to PBers on how to carry out a raid, as it is already published in umpteen newspapers.)

I won’t mention it to my friend in the pub.

If your friend is called Bob he will know already.

Not sure what his name is, TBH. Was just an idle conversation.

More seriously, i googled the question and found an answer. See https://www.quora.com/How-much-money-is-usually-in-an-ATM-machine

Appears to be up to about £120,000.

Salisbury has been having quite a year of it for news:

https://twitter.com/BBCHelenaLee/status/1055819221714710530

Bloomberg on Cox:

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2018-10-26/meet-theresa-may-s-top-lawyer-and-latest-hurdle-to-a-brexit-deal?__twitter_impression=true

White male Cesar Syoc, 56, arrested in bombing device probe

Harris still looks like value to me for the nomination:
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/10/how-kamala-harris-will-campaign-against-trump/573967/

The importance of early voting as an indicator of the likely result can be overhyped

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/early-voting-was-a-misleading-indicator/

It should also be remembered you have to go back to 1914 to find the last time turnout in a US midterm election reached 50% or more

https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1055855617338994690?s=20

Nigelb said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

JosiasJessop said:

Are we really saying that Hain is so cretinously stupid as not to think: "Hmmmm, I get some money from that law firm. I wonder if there might be a conflict ..."

Because that is really cretinously stupid.

Yep, that's his defence, and I for one believe it.

Well he has been working on the supporting evidence for it, for years....

LOL!

Nigelb said:

HYUFD said:

The importance of early voting as an indicator of the likely result can be overhyped

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/early-voting-was-a-misleading-indicator/

It should also be remembered you have to go back to 1914 to find the last time turnout in a US midterm election reached 50% or more

And how far back do you have to go to find a president as polarising as Trump ?
(Which is actually an interesting question.)

Nixon, George W Bush, LBJ were perhaps at times even more polarising than Trump is now

https://twitter.com/SirSocks/status/1055859606658998273?s=20

HYUFD said:

david_herdson said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Nate Silver has written a useful summary of how the probabilities calculated by 538 model for the key states have changed in the last couple of weeks. Although FL is now looking considerably safer for the Dems than it was, this is offset by their apparent failure to make much progress elsewhere, and going backwards in Nevada, Tennessee and Texas. Overall he has the probability of the Dems getting a majority down to 17.6% - not completely out of reach, but not great either.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/democrats-have-a-whac-a-mole-problem-in-the-senate/

They should take the House, though.

Taking the House may prove to be a decidedly mixed blessing. It will hand the Democrats a blocking opportunity, which they'll undoubtedly use, and which will then be an excuse for the GOP and Trump in failing to deliver on the Wall, repeal of Obamacare and pretty much any other positive achievement. The House Democrats could impeach Trump but it'd be with virtually no chance of success (and were there a chance of success, you'd have to assume that taking control hadn't been necessary to begin with).

By contrast, Trump would retain all the powers of the Executive, including not only the ability to mess about in foreign policy and rip up treaties but to make appointments or recommendations - and with the Senate still in the hands of the Republicans, that could prove a hugely powerful legacy weapon, which the House Democrats can't do anything about.

Obama lost the House in 2010 but held the Senate too much like Trump may be about to do

The 2010 mid terms were one of the biggest incumbent losses in history, The Dems lost over 60 seats in the House and lost 6 in the Senate. It's looking increasingly like the Dems will take the house by a slim margin, and the GOP will pick up seats in the Senate. So it's not really a comparison to the carnage of 2010.

What nobody seems to be talking about is state and local elections. The Republicans are in such a hugely dominant position, and the Democrats so enfeebled, that the only way is up for the Dems. The question is how much. The key is how many governorships the Dems can win, because come the 2020 election, governors have real influence in elections.

Deleted.

Nigelb said:

HYUFD said:

The importance of early voting as an indicator of the likely result can be overhyped

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/early-voting-was-a-misleading-indicator/

It should also be remembered you have to go back to 1914 to find the last time turnout in a US midterm election reached 50% or more

And how far back do you have to go to find a president as polarising as Trump ?
(Which is actually an interesting question.)

And we’re talking abut the comparison between actual early voting in the presidential election and actual early voting now - which is a quite different point from the 538 article you cite.

I voted Monday, and reports that evening for my state (GA) were that at that point turnout was up between 150-400% depending on county from the last mid terms. That was early in the early voting process, and may not mean anything, but than again it could be a turnout indicator.

Tim_B said:

HYUFD said:

david_herdson said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Nate Silver has written a useful summary of how the probabilities calculated by 538 model for the key states have changed in the last couple of weeks. Although FL is now looking considerably safer for the Dems than it was, this is offset by their apparent failure to make much progress elsewhere, and going backwards in Nevada, Tennessee and Texas. Overall he has the probability of the Dems getting a majority down to 17.6% - not completely out of reach, but not great either.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/democrats-have-a-whac-a-mole-problem-in-the-senate/

They should take the House, though.

Taking the House may prove to be a decidedly mixed blessing. It will hand the Democrats a blocking opportunity, which they'll undoubtedly use, and which will then be an excuse for the GOP and Trump in failing to deliver on the Wall, repeal of Obamacare and pretty much any other positive achievement. The House Democrats could impeach Trump but it'd be with virtually no chance of success (and were there a chance of success, you'd have to assume that taking control hadn't been necessary to begin with).

By contrast, Trump would retain all the powers of the Executive, including not only the ability to mess about in foreign policy and rip up treaties but to make appointments or recommendations - and with the Senate still in the hands of the Republicans, that could prove a hugely powerful legacy weapon, which the House Democrats can't do anything about.

Obama lost the House in 2010 but held the Senate too much like Trump may be about to do

The 2010 mid terms were one of the biggest incumbent losses in history, The Dems lost over 60 seats in the House and lost 6 in the Senate. It's looking increasingly like the Dems will take the house by a slim margin, and the GOP will pick up seats in the Senate. So it's not really a comparison to the carnage of 2010.

What nobody seems to be talking about is state and local elections. The Republicans are in such a hugely dominant position, and the Democrats so enfeebled, that the only way is up for the Dems. The question is how much. The key is how many governorships the Dems can win, because come the 2020 election, governors have real influence in elections.

A point I made at the beginning of the thread.
Three fifths of the governors in charge of the 2020 redistrictung are up for election next month.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Tim_B said:

White male Cesar Syoc, 56, arrested in bombing device probe

Sayoc according to BBC

Typo - my bad :-(

https://twitter.com/MattCartoonist/status/1055864509141827584

david_herdson said:

DavidL said:

RobD said:

DavidL said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

MattW said:

Is this a problem?

(Lordy he looks like a more decrepit version of Piers Morgan)

ttwitter.com/legalcheek/status/1055810322211180546

Oops, yes, it looks like a problem.

FFS. Is he mad?

Time to tap the strategic popcorn reserve.

The managing partner of that firm must have gone through several pairs of trousers since yesterday. What an idiot.

To what extent would a firm be at risk if an external advisor did something stupid on his or her own initiative, which may have benefited the firm but where the firm was completely unaware of any intention of the action being planned?

I can see why it would be a problem if it was an employee. I can also see why an executive could have trouble with his or her board about judgement, appointments, contracts and PR by association, but in terms of actual wrongdoing? I don't see it.

Hain did not name his source. An obvious source would be someone he knew in the firm. That's what would be scaring me if I was managing partner.

More on Lord Hain.

The Secret Barrister has an interesting piece in the i-news, arguing that Hain has seriously cocked-up by intervening too soon - in that the Appeal Court had only made an Interim Judgement at a preliminary hearing.

So essentially that he has denied all the participants their full chance for the arguments to be heard in full, and that the Appeal Court may actually have decided not to impose an injunction.

And Hain has gone against the wishes of 2 of the parties.

-------------------
We don’t know what that full hearing would have decided. It may well have agreed with the High Court. It may have agreed with the Court of Appeal. But the courts have now been prevented from properly considering the matter by the actions of Lord Hain, who has taken it upon himself to usurp the functions of the independent judiciary in ongoing legal proceedings and impose his own, irreversible judgment on everybody involved

Read more at: https://inews.co.uk/opinion/comment/what-lord-peter-hain-didnt-consider-when-he-rushed-to-name-name-philip-green/
-------------------

Foxy said:

Alistair said:

I'm not saying the alleged bombers van fits certain stereotypes but, well...

https://twitter.com/JesseRodriguez/status/1055843192497733632?s=19

Detail is a bit of a giveaway!

https://twitter.com/T_Brian_Malone/status/1055853779734749184?s=19

What has been sown, shall be reaped.

JosiasJessop said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Carolus_Rex said:

Off topic and apologies if this has been posted already

But *just in case* there are any PBers with an interest in things that run on rails and/or Sheffield:

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/tram-derails-on-first-day-of-new-£75m-service-after-colliding-with-lorry/ar-BBOUok5?ocid=spartanntp

Edit: can't seem to post the link, but tram, Sheffield, derailed, you get the idea.

Oh well, another delay in doing track in northern England...

It's actually quite interesting (to me, at least). The train-tram project was the first (at least, first modern) such project in the UK, allowing trams to go off the tram network and run over the Network Rail network. This *should* be cheaper than building a dedicated tramline.

However, the Rotherham train-tram is late and very over budget (three years later, and from £15m to £75m). Amongst other issues, the complexities of getting trams to run under conventional heavy-rail systems appear to have been greater than expected.

http://www.railtechnologymagazine.com/Comment/tram-train-where-did-we-go-wrong

It'll be interesting to see what the cause of this crash was.

Looks like it was on a street-running section, not on the "new" bit.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

JosiasJessop said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Carolus_Rex said:

Off topic and apologies if this has been posted already

But *just in case* there are any PBers with an interest in things that run on rails and/or Sheffield:

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/tram-derails-on-first-day-of-new-£75m-service-after-colliding-with-lorry/ar-BBOUok5?ocid=spartanntp

Edit: can't seem to post the link, but tram, Sheffield, derailed, you get the idea.

Oh well, another delay in doing track in northern England...

It's actually quite interesting (to me, at least). The train-tram project was the first (at least, first modern) such project in the UK, allowing trams to go off the tram network and run over the Network Rail network. This *should* be cheaper than building a dedicated tramline.

However, the Rotherham train-tram is late and very over budget (three years later, and from £15m to £75m). Amongst other issues, the complexities of getting trams to run under conventional heavy-rail systems appear to have been greater than expected.

http://www.railtechnologymagazine.com/Comment/tram-train-where-did-we-go-wrong

It'll be interesting to see what the cause of this crash was.

Looks like it was on a street-running section, not on the "new" bit.

Ah, thanks.

Philip_Thompson said:

williamglenn said:

The number of people jumping on the lifeboat of the Norway option just shows how much trouble Brexit is in.

https://twitter.com/montie/status/1055732242058752000

It's not Brexit that's in trouble, it's how badly it's been mishandled by May.

A lot of people proposed Norway as an option for either transition or permanent status before the referendum. Far better Norway than May's ludicrous worst-of-all-worlds vassal status.

Norway being a least worse form of vassalage?

MattW said:

OldKingCole said:

MattW said:

OldKingCole said:

kjh said:

OldKingCole said:

Interesting about bank robberies. In rural and semi rural East Anglia there seems to be a fashion for stealing heavy diggers and such and using them to remove ATMs from, particularly, Co-op supermarkets. The digger is usually abandoned once no longer useful and the ATM put on a utility vehicle and never seen again.
There seems to be one of these robberies every couple of weeks!

We get loads of them in Surrey also. In several cases they damn near destroy the building. A local Nationwide never opened again.

They raided somewhere opposite a block of flats not far from us, woke up the residents, one of whom took a video of what went on.
No, AFAIK no-one’s been arrested.
How much cash is there in a ‘full’ ATM?

I can explain this I think.

The Coop do not habitually build a strong-room type structure around their cash machines in the smaller locations, whereas eg Tesco Metro do and put teh machines in the external walls.

Hence the Coop can more easily be attacked by JCB.

(Note to constabulary: this is not advice to PBers on how to carry out a raid, as it is already published in umpteen newspapers.)

I won’t mention it to my friend in the pub.

If your friend is called Bob he will know already.

You know Bob too?

DavidL said:

david_herdson said:

DavidL said:

RobD said:

DavidL said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

MattW said:

Is this a problem?

(Lordy he looks like a more decrepit version of Piers Morgan)

ttwitter.com/legalcheek/status/1055810322211180546

Oops, yes, it looks like a problem.

FFS. Is he mad?

Time to tap the strategic popcorn reserve.

The managing partner of that firm must have gone through several pairs of trousers since yesterday. What an idiot.

To what extent would a firm be at risk if an external advisor did something stupid on his or her own initiative, which may have benefited the firm but where the firm was completely unaware of any intention of the action being planned?

I can see why it would be a problem if it was an employee. I can also see why an executive could have trouble with his or her board about judgement, appointments, contracts and PR by association, but in terms of actual wrongdoing? I don't see it.

Hain did not name his source. An obvious source would be someone he knew in the firm. That's what would be scaring me if I was managing partner.

He might be his own source !

Nigelb said:

HYUFD said:

The importance of early voting as an indicator of the likely result can be overhyped

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/early-voting-was-a-misleading-indicator/

It should also be remembered you have to go back to 1914 to find the last time turnout in a US midterm election reached 50% or more

And how far back do you have to go to find a president as polarising as Trump ?
(Which is actually an interesting question.)

And we’re talking abut the comparison between actual early voting in the presidential election and actual early voting now - which is a quite different point from the 538 article you cite.

Predictions based on early voting in the 2010 and 2014 midterms were awful.

Even if turnout is up a bit this time I doubt they will offer much more of a crystal ball into the outcome
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/11/02/early_voting_a_poor_predictor_of_final_results.amp.html

OT (probably). It's odd that the Tories ignore a very bright and articulate potential leader in favour of the freaks circus who are currently swarming around the leaders job.

Most of us are in two minds about the Philip Green expose. Several MPs like Cable have done what MPs do and jumped on the the populist bandwagon.

Dominic Grieve is the notable exception. Someone prepared to zig when the rest of them zag. Why the Tories are looking at fruitcakes when they've got a real leader under their nose is a mystery

MattW said:

Is this a problem? *innocent face*

(Lordy he looks like a more decrepit version of Piers Morgan)

https://twitter.com/legalcheek/status/1055810322211180546

Oh dearie me!

Possible conflict of interest? Yes
Possible breach of confidentiality? Yes
Hain being a twit and not doing even the most cursory check. Yes
Firm having to do an investigation to check that there was no leak from either it or client. Yes
Firm having to consider how to deal with reputational issue. Yes
Firm having to deal with letters of outrage from Green’s solicitors. Yes
Hain having to deal with ballsaching letters from Green’s solicitors. Yes

PB lawyers enjoying the merriment. Most definitely yes!

The icing on the cake would be for someone else to reveal the names of those Parliamentarians against whom allegations of bullying and harassment have been made and to find that Hain is one of them.

(Dear God: I have tried to be good so pretty please, please..... !)

Foxy said:

Tim_B said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Sayoc seems to be a Filipino surname (unless it's a Spanish language one)

He's apparently from NY, which may explain why there were a couple of NYPD jackets among the other jackets surrounding the van

He does seem to claim Philipino ancestry too:

https://heavy.com/news/2018/10/cesar-sayoc-politics-republican-trump-magabomber/

The two are by no means exclusive....

Recidivist said:

Philip_Thompson said:

williamglenn said:

The number of people jumping on the lifeboat of the Norway option just shows how much trouble Brexit is in.

https://twitter.com/montie/status/1055732242058752000

It's not Brexit that's in trouble, it's how badly it's been mishandled by May.

A lot of people proposed Norway as an option for either transition or permanent status before the referendum. Far better Norway than May's ludicrous worst-of-all-worlds vassal status.

Norway being a least worse form of vassalage?

Norway is a system we can copy and so reduces uncertainty. All other options including wto are a jump into the dark. It is frankly too late to do anything else now except delay leaving ad infinitum.

Richard_Nabavi said:

JosiasJessop said:

Are we really saying that Hain is so cretinously stupid as not to think: "Hmmmm, I get some money from that law firm. I wonder if there might be a conflict ..."

Because that is really cretinously stupid.

Yep, that's his defence, and I for one believe it.

Come off it! He just wanted to get in before Jess Phillips MP did. And in his rush he didn’t bother to check or, most likely, didn’t care, instead coming up with sanctimonious drivel.

AlastairMeeks said:

Salisbury has been having quite a year of it for news:

https://twitter.com/BBCHelenaLee/status/1055819221714710530

Perhaps it’s one of those Russian tourists we keep hearing about. Very keen on Salisbury, apparently.

Cyclefree said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

JosiasJessop said:

Are we really saying that Hain is so cretinously stupid as not to think: "Hmmmm, I get some money from that law firm. I wonder if there might be a conflict ..."

Because that is really cretinously stupid.

Yep, that's his defence, and I for one believe it.

Come off it! He just wanted to get in before Jess Phillips MP did. And in his rush he didn’t bother to check or, most likely, didn’t care, instead coming up with sanctimonious drivel.

AlastairMeeks said:

Salisbury has been having quite a year of it for news:

https://twitter.com/BBCHelenaLee/status/1055819221714710530

Perhaps it’s one of those Russian tourists we keep hearing about. Very keen on Salisbury, apparently.

Magna Cartar, BBC?

His aim must have been to Get Cartar....

MarqueeMark said:

Cyclefree said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

JosiasJessop said:

Are we really saying that Hain is so cretinously stupid as not to think: "Hmmmm, I get some money from that law firm. I wonder if there might be a conflict ..."

Because that is really cretinously stupid.

Yep, that's his defence, and I for one believe it.

Come off it! He just wanted to get in before Jess Phillips MP did. And in his rush he didn’t bother to check or, most likely, didn’t care, instead coming up with sanctimonious drivel.

AlastairMeeks said:

Salisbury has been having quite a year of it for news:

https://twitter.com/BBCHelenaLee/status/1055819221714710530

Perhaps it’s one of those Russian tourists we keep hearing about. Very keen on Salisbury, apparently.

Magna Cartar, BBC?

His aim must have been to Get Cartar....

- or Get Qatar

Cyclefree said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Cyclefree said:

MattW said:

Is this a problem? *innocent face*

(Lordy he looks like a more decrepit version of Piers Morgan)

https://twitter.com/legalcheek/status/1055810322211180546

Oh dearie me!

Possible conflict of interest? Yes
Possible breach of confidentiality? Yes
Hain being a twit and not doing even the most cursory check. Yes
Firm having to do an investigation to check that there was no leak from either it or client. Yes
Firm having to consider how to deal with reputational issue. Yes
Firm having to deal with letters of outrage from Green’s solicitors. Yes
Hain having to deal with ballsaching letters from Green’s solicitors. Yes

PB lawyers enjoying the merriment. Most definitely yes!

The icing on the cake would be for someone else to reveal the names of those Parliamentarians against whom allegations of bullying and harassment have been made and to find that Hain is one of them.

(Dear God: I have tried to be good so pretty please, please..... !)

Wealthy businessman's privilege v. Parliamentary privilege?

What interest was Hain serving? The matter was before the courts. There was going to be a full hearing. The interim injunction might well have been lifted. There are other people involved: the complainants, 2 of whom did not want the matter revealed and who now risk their names coming out in public against their wishes. And Green, unpleasant as he appears to be, denies the allegations and has not been charged, let alone been found guilty of anything.

Hainis being simultaneously self-serving, pompous and incompetent. And he has severely embarrassed the law firm he has been advising. Plus if his source was from there - or anyone else involved in the legal process - he has likely got them into a heap of trouble. They can’t be certain they won’t be found out and he won’t be able to help them.

I have heard a very nice and generous thing about Green from a decade or so ago. I won't say what it was, but it was a very kind act on his behalf, and reflects an interesting and personal side to his character.

Which, as an anecdote, is essentially meaningless. *If* he is guilty of the accusations people have claimed against him, then they should stand on their own account.

But it shows that most public figures are more complex than the 'evil' or 'angel' caricatures they often get pigeonholed into.

I also rather doubt Hain would have been so keen if the businessman had been a Labour supporter. There's also a certain stink about his actions given the recent report into behaviour in parliament.

Cyclefree said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Cyclefree said:

MattW said:

Is this a problem? *innocent face*

(Lordy he looks like a more decrepit version of Piers Morgan)

https://twitter.com/legalcheek/status/1055810322211180546

Oh dearie me!

Possible conflict of interest? Yes
Possible breach of confidentiality? Yes
Hain being a twit and not doing even the most cursory check. Yes
Firm having to do an investigation to check that there was no leak from either it or client. Yes
Firm having to consider how to deal with reputational issue. Yes
Firm having to deal with letters of outrage from Green’s solicitors. Yes
Hain having to deal with ballsaching letters from Green’s solicitors. Yes

PB lawyers enjoying the merriment. Most definitely yes!

The icing on the cake would be for someone else to reveal the names of those Parliamentarians against whom allegations of bullying and harassment have been made and to find that Hain is one of them.

(Dear God: I have tried to be good so pretty please, please..... !)

Wealthy businessman's privilege v. Parliamentary privilege?

What interest was Hain serving? The matter was before the courts. There was going to be a full hearing. The interim injunction might well have been lifted. There are other people involved: the complainants, 2 of whom did not want the matter revealed and who now risk their names coming out in public against their wishes. And Green, unpleasant as he appears to be, denies the allegations and has not been charged, let alone been found guilty of anything.

Hainis being simultaneously self-serving, pompous and incompetent. And he has severely embarrassed the law firm he has been advising. Plus if his source was from there - or anyone else involved in the legal process - he has likely got them into a heap of trouble. They can’t be certain they won’t be found out and he won’t be able to help them.

Quite something when these publicity seeking politicians make the public feel sorry for Philip Green but that's what's happening. What a self righteous prat Hain has turned out to be.

Impressed to see spurs sneak out bad news late on a Friday. That's proper news management...

hamiltonace said:

Recidivist said:

Philip_Thompson said:

williamglenn said:

The number of people jumping on the lifeboat of the Norway option just shows how much trouble Brexit is in.

https://twitter.com/montie/status/1055732242058752000

It's not Brexit that's in trouble, it's how badly it's been mishandled by May.

A lot of people proposed Norway as an option for either transition or permanent status before the referendum. Far better Norway than May's ludicrous worst-of-all-worlds vassal status.

Norway being a least worse form of vassalage?

Norway is a system we can copy and so reduces uncertainty. All other options including wto are a jump into the dark. It is frankly too late to do anything else now except delay leaving ad infinitum.

hamiltonace said:

Recidivist said:

Philip_Thompson said:

williamglenn said:

The number of people jumping on the lifeboat of the Norway option just shows how much trouble Brexit is in.

https://twitter.com/montie/status/1055732242058752000

It's not Brexit that's in trouble, it's how badly it's been mishandled by May.

A lot of people proposed Norway as an option for either transition or permanent status before the referendum. Far better Norway than May's ludicrous worst-of-all-worlds vassal status.

Norway being a least worse form of vassalage?

Norway is a system we can copy and so reduces uncertainty. All other options including wto are a jump into the dark. It is frankly too late to do anything else now except delay leaving ad infinitum.

I think we may as well leave with no deal and take the consequences. At least that way when we rejoin we'll be like Tigger after he lost his bounce and not hold the project back.

Recidivist said:

hamiltonace said:

Recidivist said:

Philip_Thompson said:

williamglenn said:

The number of people jumping on the lifeboat of the Norway option just shows how much trouble Brexit is in.

https://twitter.com/montie/status/1055732242058752000

It's not Brexit that's in trouble, it's how badly it's been mishandled by May.

A lot of people proposed Norway as an option for either transition or permanent status before the referendum. Far better Norway than May's ludicrous worst-of-all-worlds vassal status.

Norway being a least worse form of vassalage?

Norway is a system we can copy and so reduces uncertainty. All other options including wto are a jump into the dark. It is frankly too late to do anything else now except delay leaving ad infinitum.

hamiltonace said:

Recidivist said:

Philip_Thompson said:

williamglenn said:

The number of people jumping on the lifeboat of the Norway option just shows how much trouble Brexit is in.

https://twitter.com/montie/status/1055732242058752000

It's not Brexit that's in trouble, it's how badly it's been mishandled by May.

A lot of people proposed Norway as an option for either transition or permanent status before the referendum. Far better Norway than May's ludicrous worst-of-all-worlds vassal status.

Norway being a least worse form of vassalage?

Norway is a system we can copy and so reduces uncertainty. All other options including wto are a jump into the dark. It is frankly too late to do anything else now except delay leaving ad infinitum.

I think we may as well leave with no deal and take the consequences. At least that way when we rejoin we'll be like Tigger after he lost his bounce and not hold the project back.

Are you famliar wit hthe story of when Tigger was Unbounced? I'm not sure it works out how you think it did.

Cookie said:

Recidivist said:

hamiltonace said:

Recidivist said:

Philip_Thompson said:

williamglenn said:

The number of people jumping on the lifeboat of the Norway option just shows how much trouble Brexit is in.

https://twitter.com/montie/status/1055732242058752000

It's not Brexit that's in trouble, it's how badly it's been mishandled by May.

A lot of people proposed Norway as an option for either transition or permanent status before the referendum. Far better Norway than May's ludicrous worst-of-all-worlds vassal status.

Norway being a least worse form of vassalage?

Norway is a system we can copy and so reduces uncertainty. All other options including wto are a jump into the dark. It is frankly too late to do anything else now except delay leaving ad infinitum.

hamiltonace said:

Recidivist said:

Philip_Thompson said:

williamglenn said:

The number of people jumping on the lifeboat of the Norway option just shows how much trouble Brexit is in.

https://twitter.com/montie/status/1055732242058752000

It's not Brexit that's in trouble, it's how badly it's been mishandled by May.

A lot of people proposed Norway as an option for either transition or permanent status before the referendum. Far better Norway than May's ludicrous worst-of-all-worlds vassal status.

Norway being a least worse form of vassalage?

Norway is a system we can copy and so reduces uncertainty. All other options including wto are a jump into the dark. It is frankly too late to do anything else now except delay leaving ad infinitum.

I think we may as well leave with no deal and take the consequences. At least that way when we rejoin we'll be like Tigger after he lost his bounce and not hold the project back.

Are you famliar wit hthe story of when Tigger was Unbounced? I'm not sure it works out how you think it did.

I know Hammond is Eeyore, but who is this Tigger of whom you speak. Could it be Alexander de Pfeffel?

Cyclefree said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

JosiasJessop said:

Are we really saying that Hain is so cretinously stupid as not to think: "Hmmmm, I get some money from that law firm. I wonder if there might be a conflict ..."

Because that is really cretinously stupid.

Yep, that's his defence, and I for one believe it.

Come off it! He just wanted to get in before Jess Phillips MP did. And in his rush he didn’t bother to check or, most likely, didn’t care, instead coming up with sanctimonious drivel.

AlastairMeeks said:

Salisbury has been having quite a year of it for news:

https://twitter.com/BBCHelenaLee/status/1055819221714710530

Perhaps it’s one of those Russian tourists we keep hearing about. Very keen on Salisbury, apparently.

Though I don't think that Russian tourists are interested in the basis of our legal system!

geoffw said:

Cyclefree said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Cyclefree said:

MattW said:

Is this a problem? *innocent face*

(Lordy he looks like a more decrepit version of Piers Morgan)

https://twitter.com/legalcheek/status/1055810322211180546

Oh dearie me!

Possible conflict of interest? Yes
Possible breach of confidentiality? Yes
Hain being a twit and not doing even the most cursory check. Yes
Firm having to do an investigation to check that there was no leak from either it or client. Yes
Firm having to consider how to deal with reputational issue. Yes
Firm having to deal with letters of outrage from Green’s solicitors. Yes
Hain having to deal with ballsaching letters from Green’s solicitors. Yes

PB lawyers enjoying the merriment. Most definitely yes!

The icing on the cake would be for someone else to reveal the names of those Parliamentarians against whom allegations of bullying and harassment have been made and to find that Hain is one of them.

(Dear God: I have tried to be good so pretty please, please..... !)

Wealthy businessman's privilege v. Parliamentary privilege?

What interest was Hain serving? The matter was before the courts. There was going to be a full hearing. The interim injunction might well have been lifted. There are other people involved: the complainants, 2 of whom did not want the matter revealed and who now risk their names coming out in public against their wishes. And Green, unpleasant as he appears to be, denies the allegations and has not been charged, let alone been found guilty of anything.

Hainis being simultaneously self-serving, pompous and incompetent. And he has severely embarrassed the law firm he has been advising. Plus if his source was from there - or anyone else involved in the legal process - he has likely got them into a heap of trouble. They can’t be certain they won’t be found out and he won’t be able to help them.

All of that. Plus this
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/10/peter-hain-has-fundamentally-undermined-the-rule-of-law/

Dominic Grieve has said much the same thing.

Hain was wittering on Newsnight last night about how Parliament was sovereign thus showing that he does not understand that Parliamentarians are as subject to the law as anyone else.

“ Be you ever so high, the law is above you.”

Still, think of all those Dadds lawyers and IT bods busy working tonight and over the weekend on their leak inquiry........ when they get any spare time they’ll be throwing darts at pictures of him.

Roger said:

Tommy Robinson invited to lunch at the House of Lords. Is there no limit to how far they've allowed their standards to slip?

https://news.sky.com/story/loathsome-tommy-robinson-slammed-after-dining-in-parliament-11534373

Yes it is shocking to see TR consorting with such a bunch of shysters.