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SystemSystem Posts: 12,681
edited October 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » US midterms early voting is reaching presidential election levels in some states

All the signs are that turnout is going to reach almost presidential election levels in the US midterm elections that take place on Tuesday November 6th.

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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    E pluribus unum.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    I’ve gone mad in the past trying to work out who early voting benefits.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I’ve gone mad in the past trying to work out who early voting benefits.

    Have you recovered from your madness?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    MikeSmithson said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I’ve gone mad in the past trying to work out who early voting benefits.

    Have you recovered from your madness?
    It has only got worse.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,538
    My post vanished.

    IMHO, high enthusiasm will help the Democrats in marginal seats in the House, and will help Republicans in Red State Senate contests.

    That's why States like Texas and Tennessee that almost seemed in play a couple of months ago now look out of reach for Democrats, and conversely, North Dakota seems doomed.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Nate Silver has written a useful summary of how the probabilities calculated by 538 model for the key states have changed in the last couple of weeks. Although FL is now looking considerably safer for the Dems than it was, this is offset by their apparent failure to make much progress elsewhere, and going backwards in Nevada, Tennessee and Texas. Overall he has the probability of the Dems getting a majority down to 17.6% - not completely out of reach, but not great either.

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/democrats-have-a-whac-a-mole-problem-in-the-senate/

    They should take the House, though.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,538
    edited October 2018
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Nate Silver has written a useful summary of how the probabilities calculated by 538 model for the key states have changed in the last couple of weeks. Although FL is now looking considerably safer for the Dems than it was, this is offset by their apparent failure to make much progress elsewhere, and going backwards in Nevada, Tennessee and Texas. Overall he has the probability of the Dems getting a majority down to 17.6% - not completely out of reach, but not great either.

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/democrats-have-a-whac-a-mole-problem-in-the-senate/

    They should take the House, though.

    By contrast, back in 2012, everything that could go right for the Democrats in the Senate did go right (apart from not winning Nevada).

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,705
    MikeSmithson said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I’ve gone mad in the past trying to work out who early voting benefits.

    Have you recovered from your madness?
    He's just got a job with a Frenchman, so I think we all know the answer to that question. ;)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 81,114
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Nate Silver has written a useful summary of how the probabilities calculated by 538 model for the key states have changed in the last couple of weeks. Although FL is now looking considerably safer for the Dems than it was, this is offset by their apparent failure to make much progress elsewhere, and going backwards in Nevada, Tennessee and Texas. Overall he has the probability of the Dems getting a majority down to 17.6% - not completely out of reach, but not great either.

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/democrats-have-a-whac-a-mole-problem-in-the-senate/

    They should take the House, though.

    The poll I posted on the previous thread showing how significantly Cruz’s Republican support in Texas has solidified suggests the increased turnout will benefit both parties.
    The room for surprises would be turnout from those who don’t normally vote even in presidential years - is there any polling on this ?

    This is also pertinent:
    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-romney-clinton-districts-are-overrated-obama-trump-districts-are-underrated/
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Nate Silver has written a useful summary of how the probabilities calculated by 538 model for the key states have changed in the last couple of weeks. Although FL is now looking considerably safer for the Dems than it was, this is offset by their apparent failure to make much progress elsewhere, and going backwards in Nevada, Tennessee and Texas. Overall he has the probability of the Dems getting a majority down to 17.6% - not completely out of reach, but not great either.

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/democrats-have-a-whac-a-mole-problem-in-the-senate/

    They should take the House, though.

    Taking the House may prove to be a decidedly mixed blessing. It will hand the Democrats a blocking opportunity, which they'll undoubtedly use, and which will then be an excuse for the GOP and Trump in failing to deliver on the Wall, repeal of Obamacare and pretty much any other positive achievement. The House Democrats could impeach Trump but it'd be with virtually no chance of success (and were there a chance of success, you'd have to assume that taking control hadn't been necessary to begin with).

    By contrast, Trump would retain all the powers of the Executive, including not only the ability to mess about in foreign policy and rip up treaties but to make appointments or recommendations - and with the Senate still in the hands of the Republicans, that could prove a hugely powerful legacy weapon, which the House Democrats can't do anything about.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    On the bright side, the chances of me losing on my Betfair lay of the Dems getting a Senate majority (excluding the two independents) have receded to 2.3%, according to 538.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    FPT
    Dura_Ace said:

    Pulpstar said:

    We're at the start of the May cycle again, she'll look in real danger come mid December once more I think.

    The day we finally don't have to see her big stupid grey face on TV any longer is going to be tremendous.
    There are two possibilities: May is a political genius who is running rings round everybody, or she's a dull incompetent who has accidentally seen off all comers during the most volatile period in UK politics for decades.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    The number of people jumping on the lifeboat of the Norway option just shows how much trouble Brexit is in.

    https://twitter.com/montie/status/1055732242058752000
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 81,114
    david_herdson said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Nate Silver has written a useful summary of how the probabilities calculated by 538 model for the key states have changed in the last couple of weeks. Although FL is now looking considerably safer for the Dems than it was, this is offset by their apparent failure to make much progress elsewhere, and going backwards in Nevada, Tennessee and Texas. Overall he has the probability of the Dems getting a majority down to 17.6% - not completely out of reach, but not great either.

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/democrats-have-a-whac-a-mole-problem-in-the-senate/

    They should take the House, though.

    Taking the House may prove to be a decidedly mixed blessing. It will hand the Democrats a blocking opportunity, which they'll undoubtedly use, and which will then be an excuse for the GOP and Trump in failing to deliver on the Wall, repeal of Obamacare and pretty much any other positive achievement. The House Democrats could impeach Trump but it'd be with virtually no chance of success (and were there a chance of success, you'd have to assume that taking control hadn't been necessary to begin with).

    By contrast, Trump would retain all the powers of the Executive, including not only the ability to mess about in foreign policy and rip up treaties but to make appointments or recommendations - and with the Senate still in the hands of the Republicans, that could prove a hugely powerful legacy weapon, which the House Democrats can't do anything about.
    Don’t underestimate the power of the House to investigate and subpoena.
    Thus far Trump has been pretty well immune from this - other than the tightly constrained, and necessarily un-public Mueller probe.

    And, of course, Democrats are likely to win quite a few Governorships. Which is probably the one thing about these elections of most electoral significance for the future.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    williamglenn said:

    FPT

    Dura_Ace said:

    Pulpstar said:

    We're at the start of the May cycle again, she'll look in real danger come mid December once more I think.

    The day we finally don't have to see her big stupid grey face on TV any longer is going to be tremendous.
    There are two possibilities: May is a political genius who is running rings round everybody, or she's a dull incompetent who has accidentally seen off all comers during the most volatile period in UK politics for decades.
    You discount that when she took over it was a job that nobody else wanted at that time ?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 15,293
    williamglenn said:


    There are two possibilities: May is a political genius who is running rings round everybody, or she's a dull incompetent who has accidentally seen off all comers during the most volatile period in UK politics for decades.

    She has only been Prime Minister for two and a half years which is nothing - it's Brown, Callaghan or Douglas-Hume territory. Cameron held on for six which is fairly average and well behind the likes of Thatcher and Blair both of whom retired undefeated (by the electorate not necessarily their own party).
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    stodge said:

    williamglenn said:


    There are two possibilities: May is a political genius who is running rings round everybody, or she's a dull incompetent who has accidentally seen off all comers during the most volatile period in UK politics for decades.

    She has only been Prime Minister for two and a half years which is nothing - it's Brown, Callaghan or Douglas-Hume territory. Cameron held on for six which is fairly average and well behind the likes of Thatcher and Blair both of whom retired undefeated (by the electorate not necessarily their own party).
    PMs should be ranked by number of GE's fought where they were still PM afterwards.

    May 1
    Brown 0

  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,403
    williamglenn said:

    FPT

    Dura_Ace said:

    Pulpstar said:

    We're at the start of the May cycle again, she'll look in real danger come mid December once more I think.

    The day we finally don't have to see her big stupid grey face on TV any longer is going to be tremendous.
    There are two possibilities: May is a political genius who is running rings round everybody, or she's a dull incompetent who has accidentally seen off all comers during the most volatile period in UK politics for decades.
    Theresa has been incredibly lucky with her opponents. There's absolutely no one around with an ounce of credibility capable of finishing her off. DD and Boris have both achieved the feat of looking more foolish and hapless since their respective resignations than they did while in office.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    williamglenn said:

    The number of people jumping on the lifeboat of the Norway option just shows how much trouble Brexit is in.

    https://twitter.com/carlgardner/status/1055816826951733249
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,403
    Scott_P said:

    williamglenn said:

    The number of people jumping on the lifeboat of the Norway option just shows how much trouble Brexit is in.

    https://twitter.com/carlgardner/status/1055816826951733249
    5-10 years? What happens in the meantime? Liam needs to start pulling his socks up and getting out there!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 81,114
    Can’t we have one Brexit free thread ?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    david_herdson said:

    Taking the House may prove to be a decidedly mixed blessing. It will hand the Democrats a blocking opportunity, which they'll undoubtedly use, and which will then be an excuse for the GOP and Trump in failing to deliver on the Wall, repeal of Obamacare and pretty much any other positive achievement. The House Democrats could impeach Trump but it'd be with virtually no chance of success (and were there a chance of success, you'd have to assume that taking control hadn't been necessary to begin with).

    By contrast, Trump would retain all the powers of the Executive, including not only the ability to mess about in foreign policy and rip up treaties but to make appointments or recommendations - and with the Senate still in the hands of the Republicans, that could prove a hugely powerful legacy weapon, which the House Democrats can't do anything about.

    In addition, if the Dems go backwards in the Senate this time round, which is looking more likely than not, then they've got a bigger hurdle to jump over in 2020 to regain control. The starting position in 2020 is much better for them, in the sense that it will be the Republicans' turn to be defending most of the seats (probably 22 against the Dems' 12), but not many of the Republican seats are going to be easy picks: just three are states where Trump either lost or won by less than 5% (Maine, Colorado and North Carolina).
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,705
    Nigelb said:

    Can’t we have one Brexit free thread ?

    I propose we have one on AV.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/RuthDavidsonMSP/status/1055819124788678657
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,693
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/RuthDavidsonMSP/status/1055819124788678657

    Congrats and best wishes to them both.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,693
    Stark_Dawning said:

    Scott_P said:

    williamglenn said:

    The number of people jumping on the lifeboat of the Norway option just shows how much trouble Brexit is in.

    https://twitter.com/carlgardner/status/1055816826951733249
    5-10 years? What happens in the meantime? Liam needs to start pulling his socks up and getting out there!
    No, no, Liam said it was the easiest deal in the world.

    Just like the GP who told me I hadn’t got cancer when I had!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited October 2018
    Stark_Dawning said:

    Scott_P said:

    williamglenn said:

    The number of people jumping on the lifeboat of the Norway option just shows how much trouble Brexit is in.

    https://twitter.com/carlgardner/status/1055816826951733249
    5-10 years? What happens in the meantime? Liam needs to start pulling his socks up and getting out there!
    In the meantime worst-case we trade on the same principles that we trade with major markets like the USA etc which you lot seem to think is perfectly fine for them.

    Best case the EU starts talking a sane interim deal without any backstop nonsense.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,705
    OldKingCole said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    Scott_P said:

    williamglenn said:

    The number of people jumping on the lifeboat of the Norway option just shows how much trouble Brexit is in.

    https://twitter.com/carlgardner/status/1055816826951733249
    5-10 years? What happens in the meantime? Liam needs to start pulling his socks up and getting out there!
    No, no, Liam said it was the easiest deal in the world.

    Just like the GP who told me I hadn’t got cancer when I had!
    Didn't he say it should be the easiest deal in the world, but that politics would get in the way? I think that's a pretty accurate description of what happened.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,693
    williamglenn said:

    FPT

    Dura_Ace said:

    Pulpstar said:

    We're at the start of the May cycle again, she'll look in real danger come mid December once more I think.

    The day we finally don't have to see her big stupid grey face on TV any longer is going to be tremendous.
    There are two possibilities: May is a political genius who is running rings round everybody, or she's a dull incompetent who has accidentally seen off (the even more incompetent) all comers during the most volatile period in UK politics for decades.

    That better?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    TGOHF said:

    williamglenn said:

    FPT

    Dura_Ace said:

    Pulpstar said:

    We're at the start of the May cycle again, she'll look in real danger come mid December once more I think.

    The day we finally don't have to see her big stupid grey face on TV any longer is going to be tremendous.
    There are two possibilities: May is a political genius who is running rings round everybody, or she's a dull incompetent who has accidentally seen off all comers during the most volatile period in UK politics for decades.
    You discount that when she took over it was a job that nobody else wanted at that time ?
    Why was it a contested election then?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 47,043
    OldKingCole said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/RuthDavidsonMSP/status/1055819124788678657

    Congrats and best wishes to them both.
    +1
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,693
    Interesting scam. Just had a phone call to tell me I’ve won the New York lottery. Since I never buy lottery tickets here, let alone American ones I wonder how I did that.
    I was asked to press ‘button 1’ to talk to the Lottery management. I wonder how much that would have cost!
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,693
    RobD said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    Scott_P said:

    williamglenn said:

    The number of people jumping on the lifeboat of the Norway option just shows how much trouble Brexit is in.

    https://twitter.com/carlgardner/status/1055816826951733249
    5-10 years? What happens in the meantime? Liam needs to start pulling his socks up and getting out there!
    No, no, Liam said it was the easiest deal in the world.

    Just like the GP who told me I hadn’t got cancer when I had!
    Didn't he say it should be the easiest deal in the world, but that politics would get in the way? I think that's a pretty accurate description of what happened.
    Well, politics did get in the way, to be fair. Why the something did he think they wouldn’t?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,376
    OldKingCole said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/RuthDavidsonMSP/status/1055819124788678657

    Congrats and best wishes to them both.
    That’s some nice news for a change.
  • AllyPally_RobAllyPally_Rob Posts: 605
    RobD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Can’t we have one Brexit free thread ?

    I propose we have one on AV.
    Even better, one on why the Lib Dems are going to win the Newport By Election 😉
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,705
    OldKingCole said:

    RobD said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    Scott_P said:

    williamglenn said:

    The number of people jumping on the lifeboat of the Norway option just shows how much trouble Brexit is in.

    https://twitter.com/carlgardner/status/1055816826951733249
    5-10 years? What happens in the meantime? Liam needs to start pulling his socks up and getting out there!
    No, no, Liam said it was the easiest deal in the world.

    Just like the GP who told me I hadn’t got cancer when I had!
    Didn't he say it should be the easiest deal in the world, but that politics would get in the way? I think that's a pretty accurate description of what happened.
    Well, politics did get in the way, to be fair. Why the something did he think they wouldn’t?
    He didn’t, that’s the point.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    Nigelb said:

    Can’t we have one Brexit free thread ?

    Would that it could be so.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 47,043
    I'm starting to think that the US is no longer a functioning democracy. This is not directly to do with partisan politics, but to the fact they rely on processes and systems that cannot guarantee the results reflect the voters' views.

    The old voting machines were bad enough (remember Mr Hanging Chad?), but since then things have got worse; including newer, worse machines and potential foreign interventions.

    I will not be able to say for sure that whoever 'wins' the midterms will be the real winner.

    And this is a terrible place for a democracy to end up.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    kle4 said:

    Would that it could be so.

    Threads about Brexit are the will of the people...
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,373
    Ruthie names her baby Finn.

    Next up will be twins Swede and Dane - don't stop until you reach Cypriot!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    williamglenn said:

    The number of people jumping on the lifeboat of the Norway option just shows how much trouble Brexit is in.

    https://twitter.com/montie/status/1055732242058752000

    It's not Brexit that's in trouble, it's how badly it's been mishandled by May.

    A lot of people proposed Norway as an option for either transition or permanent status before the referendum. Far better Norway than May's ludicrous worst-of-all-worlds vassal status.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    OldKingCole said:

    RobD said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    Scott_P said:

    williamglenn said:

    The number of people jumping on the lifeboat of the Norway option just shows how much trouble Brexit is in.

    https://twitter.com/carlgardner/status/1055816826951733249
    5-10 years? What happens in the meantime? Liam needs to start pulling his socks up and getting out there!
    No, no, Liam said it was the easiest deal in the world.

    Just like the GP who told me I hadn’t got cancer when I had!
    Didn't he say it should be the easiest deal in the world, but that politics would get in the way? I think that's a pretty accurate description of what happened.
    Well, politics did get in the way, to be fair. Why the something did he think they wouldn’t?
    He said they would in the article! The quote is bastardised by taking it out of context, he said it should be easy but politics will likely get in the way. Exactly what has happened!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    The number of people jumping on the lifeboat of the Norway option just shows how much trouble Brexit is in.

    https://twitter.com/montie/status/1055732242058752000

    It's not Brexit that's in trouble, it's how badly it's been mishandled by May.

    A lot of people proposed Norway as an option for either transition or permanent status before the referendum. Far better Norway than May's ludicrous worst-of-all-worlds vassal status.
    It was Boris Johnson who was implacably opposed to the Norway option.
    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/911234591792484352
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Sean_F said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Nate Silver has written a useful summary of how the probabilities calculated by 538 model for the key states have changed in the last couple of weeks. Although FL is now looking considerably safer for the Dems than it was, this is offset by their apparent failure to make much progress elsewhere, and going backwards in Nevada, Tennessee and Texas. Overall he has the probability of the Dems getting a majority down to 17.6% - not completely out of reach, but not great either.

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/democrats-have-a-whac-a-mole-problem-in-the-senate/

    They should take the House, though.

    By contrast, back in 2012, everything that could go right for the Democrats in the Senate did go right (apart from not winning Nevada).

    Isn't that exactly why they're finding it so difficult in the Senate now?

    Whereas 2014 was the midterms 6 year's into Obama's term.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited October 2018
    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    The number of people jumping on the lifeboat of the Norway option just shows how much trouble Brexit is in.

    https://twitter.com/montie/status/1055732242058752000

    It's not Brexit that's in trouble, it's how badly it's been mishandled by May.

    A lot of people proposed Norway as an option for either transition or permanent status before the referendum. Far better Norway than May's ludicrous worst-of-all-worlds vassal status.
    If Leavers were happy with a Norway-style solution, then they should not have mentioned ending freedom of movement as an issue in their campaigning. In fact they made it the number 1 issue (unsurprisingly, because it was the most persuasive reason for leaving). So Theresa May was quite right to rule it out - and you can bet your bottom dollar that if she'd tried to go for a deal which left freedom of movement intact, the howls of 'betrayal' would have been deafening, and far more justified than the synthetic indignation over Chequers.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    williamglenn said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    The number of people jumping on the lifeboat of the Norway option just shows how much trouble Brexit is in.

    https://twitter.com/montie/status/1055732242058752000

    It's not Brexit that's in trouble, it's how badly it's been mishandled by May.

    A lot of people proposed Norway as an option for either transition or permanent status before the referendum. Far better Norway than May's ludicrous worst-of-all-worlds vassal status.
    It was Boris Johnson who was implacably opposed to the Norway option.
    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/911234591792484352
    So you want us to go with what Boris Johnson wants now? Between May's Lancaster House proposals, Norway and Barnier's current proposals May's proposals were better than Norway, but Norway is better than what's now being negotiated. The government should have taken better stock once Lancaster House was rejected but then that's the same mistake Cameron made when his Bloomberg proposals got rejected yet he still signed on anyway.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    stodge said:

    williamglenn said:


    There are two possibilities: May is a political genius who is running rings round everybody, or she's a dull incompetent who has accidentally seen off all comers during the most volatile period in UK politics for decades.

    She has only been Prime Minister for two and a half years which is nothing - it's Brown, Callaghan or Douglas-Hume territory. Cameron held on for six which is fairly average and well behind the likes of Thatcher and Blair both of whom retired undefeated (by the electorate not necessarily their own party).
    Cameron's six years is slightly top-side of 'fairly average' for PM's, never mind party leaders. He's 22nd on the list of MPs by tenure (out of 54), and similarly middle-ranked in a more modern timeframe - e.g. whether since 1900 or since 1945. However, winning two elections, even if one was a coalition and the other only a narrow majority, puts him behind only Wilson, Thatcher and Blair.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,891
    Good afternoon, my fellow classical historians.

    Before Pyrrhus, who was used to describe a victory not worth having?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    The number of people jumping on the lifeboat of the Norway option just shows how much trouble Brexit is in.

    https://twitter.com/montie/status/1055732242058752000

    It's not Brexit that's in trouble, it's how badly it's been mishandled by May.

    A lot of people proposed Norway as an option for either transition or permanent status before the referendum. Far better Norway than May's ludicrous worst-of-all-worlds vassal status.
    If Leavers were happy with a Norway-style solution, then they should not have mentioned ending freedom of movement as an issue in their campaigning. In fact they made it the number 1 issue (unsurprisingly, because it was the most persuasive reason for leaving). So Theresa May was quite right to rule it out - and you can bet your bottom dollar that if she'd tried to go for a deal which left freedom of movement intact, the howls of 'betrayal' would have been deafening, and far more justified than the synthetic indignation over Chequers.
    Chequers has been rejected. Freedom of movement continues during transition as we're negotiating anyway so that's not a reason why Norway as a transition is worse than the proposed transition.

    If we were transitioning into Norway on 29 March next year then the CFP and CAP would end on 29 March and then Freedom of Movement would end once we'd completed transitioning into either a Chequers or Canada style deal. Instead we're keeping it all throughout transition.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 13,146
    OldKingCole said:

    Interesting scam. Just had a phone call to tell me I’ve won the New York lottery. Since I never buy lottery tickets here, let alone American ones I wonder how I did that.
    I was asked to press ‘button 1’ to talk to the Lottery management. I wonder how much that would have cost!

    It wouldn't have cost you anything to have pressed button 1. Worth a go for some fun. I suspect there would have been an issue in getting the funds to you and that would have required you to pay something to some official who needs to sort it out or they could have just been fishing for some bank details, but I'm guessing the former. It will be a variation on the Nigerian scam. Although you are told not to go along with this stuff I love to waste their time. I've put them on hold listening to the radio before, got then to call back cos I am busy, fished for details and just go along with it. They don't seem very bright (assume it's just a script) as being Donald Duck doesn't seem to click with them. I actually managed to identify one scam once that was UK based and reported it to the police. Not interested which was very frustrating.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited October 2018
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    The number of people jumping on the lifeboat of the Norway option just shows how much trouble Brexit is in.

    https://twitter.com/montie/status/1055732242058752000

    It's not Brexit that's in trouble, it's how badly it's been mishandled by May.

    A lot of people proposed Norway as an option for either transition or permanent status before the referendum. Far better Norway than May's ludicrous worst-of-all-worlds vassal status.
    If Leavers were happy with a Norway-style solution, then they should not have mentioned ending freedom of movement as an issue in their campaigning. In fact they made it the number 1 issue (unsurprisingly, because it was the most persuasive reason for leaving). So Theresa May was quite right to rule it out - and you can bet your bottom dollar that if she'd tried to go for a deal which left freedom of movement intact, the howls of 'betrayal' would have been deafening, and far more justified than the synthetic indignation over Chequers.
    Chequers has been rejected. Freedom of movement continues during transition as we're negotiating anyway so that's not a reason why Norway as a transition is worse than the proposed transition.

    If we were transitioning into Norway on 29 March next year then the CFP and CAP would end on 29 March and then Freedom of Movement would end once we'd completed transitioning into either a Chequers or Canada style deal. Instead we're keeping it all throughout transition.
    Norway as a transition would be much the same as the transition we'll (hopefully) be getting, except that the car industry would be hit in a very bad way and the Irish problem would be worse. In any case, why on earth do you assume it would be available? The chances of the EU and EEA states (and Switzerland) wanting to rewrite the EEA treaties as a temporary measure for our convenience is pretty much the square root of zero.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 29,798
    edited October 2018
    Is this a problem? *innocent face*

    (Lordy he looks like a more decrepit version of Piers Morgan)

    https://twitter.com/legalcheek/status/1055810322211180546
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    MattW said:

    Is this a problem?

    (Lordy he looks like a more decrepit version of Piers Morgan)

    https://twitter.com/legalcheek/status/1055810322211180546

    Oops, yes, it looks like a problem.
  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good afternoon, my fellow classical historians.

    Before Pyrrhus, who was used to describe a victory not worth having?

    Cadmus.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,376
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    MattW said:

    Is this a problem?

    (Lordy he looks like a more decrepit version of Piers Morgan)

    https://twitter.com/legalcheek/status/1055810322211180546

    Oops, yes, it looks like a problem.
    FFS. Is he mad?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,891
    Hmm. Well, Lord Hain's move was contentious anyway. Not looking less so with that revelation. Iffy.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Philip_Thompson said:

    TGOHF said:

    williamglenn said:

    FPT

    Dura_Ace said:

    Pulpstar said:

    We're at the start of the May cycle again, she'll look in real danger come mid December once more I think.

    The day we finally don't have to see her big stupid grey face on TV any longer is going to be tremendous.
    There are two possibilities: May is a political genius who is running rings round everybody, or she's a dull incompetent who has accidentally seen off all comers during the most volatile period in UK politics for decades.
    You discount that when she took over it was a job that nobody else wanted at that time ?
    Why was it a contested election then?
    It was of sorts I guess - but May never won a final vote.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,891
    Mr. Rex, yes :)

    Tend not to hear of a Cadmean victory any more, though. Not since the 3rd century BC, anyway.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,705
    DavidL said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    MattW said:

    Is this a problem?

    (Lordy he looks like a more decrepit version of Piers Morgan)

    ttwitter.com/legalcheek/status/1055810322211180546

    Oops, yes, it looks like a problem.
    FFS. Is he mad?
    Time to tap the strategic popcorn reserve.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 29,798
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    MattW said:

    Is this a problem?

    (Lordy he looks like a more decrepit version of Piers Morgan)

    https://twitter.com/legalcheek/status/1055810322211180546

    Oops, yes, it looks like a problem.
    I don't think I can see MPs being lenient on the Telegraph in round 2, should they choose to pursue the detail.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,693
    kjh said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Interesting scam. Just had a phone call to tell me I’ve won the New York lottery. Since I never buy lottery tickets here, let alone American ones I wonder how I did that.
    I was asked to press ‘button 1’ to talk to the Lottery management. I wonder how much that would have cost!

    It wouldn't have cost you anything to have pressed button 1. Worth a go for some fun. I suspect there would have been an issue in getting the funds to you and that would have required you to pay something to some official who needs to sort it out or they could have just been fishing for some bank details, but I'm guessing the former. It will be a variation on the Nigerian scam. Although you are told not to go along with this stuff I love to waste their time. I've put them on hold listening to the radio before, got then to call back cos I am busy, fished for details and just go along with it. They don't seem very bright (assume it's just a script) as being Donald Duck doesn't seem to click with them. I actually managed to identify one scam once that was UK based and reported it to the police. Not interested which was very frustrating.
    While I agree about fun that can be had, this seemed to be a recording. I’ve wound up ‘people’ who have phoned up claiming to be from Microsoft’s Technical Dept.... keep ‘em talking for a while until getting bored and telling them I use Linux (untrue) or a mac (true). One chap who I’d been stringing along, and who I eventually told I had a mac told me I was very wise!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,376
    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    MattW said:

    Is this a problem?

    (Lordy he looks like a more decrepit version of Piers Morgan)

    ttwitter.com/legalcheek/status/1055810322211180546

    Oops, yes, it looks like a problem.
    FFS. Is he mad?
    Time to tap the strategic popcorn reserve.
    The managing partner of that firm must have gone through several pairs of trousers since yesterday. What an idiot.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,693
    Philip_Thompson said:

    OldKingCole said:

    RobD said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    Scott_P said:

    williamglenn said:

    The number of people jumping on the lifeboat of the Norway option just shows how much trouble Brexit is in.

    https://twitter.com/carlgardner/status/1055816826951733249
    5-10 years? What happens in the meantime? Liam needs to start pulling his socks up and getting out there!
    No, no, Liam said it was the easiest deal in the world.

    Just like the GP who told me I hadn’t got cancer when I had!
    Didn't he say it should be the easiest deal in the world, but that politics would get in the way? I think that's a pretty accurate description of what happened.
    Well, politics did get in the way, to be fair. Why the something did he think they wouldn’t?
    He said they would in the article! The quote is bastardised by taking it out of context, he said it should be easy but politics will likely get in the way. Exactly what has happened!
    Ah, fair enough.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Mr ABC will be having a glass of something right about now.

    Hain may well have sunk his own Belgrano.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    DavidL said:

    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    MattW said:

    Is this a problem?

    (Lordy he looks like a more decrepit version of Piers Morgan)

    ttwitter.com/legalcheek/status/1055810322211180546

    Oops, yes, it looks like a problem.
    FFS. Is he mad?
    Time to tap the strategic popcorn reserve.
    The managing partner of that firm must have gone through several pairs of trousers since yesterday. What an idiot.
    I feel sorry for the person that underwrote their PI cover.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,100
    The scale of conflict of interest Hain has there is quite something.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,891
    Mr. Pulpstar, are you saying Lord Cuprinol should've stayed on the fence?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,100
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Pulpstar, are you saying Lord Cuprinol should've stayed on the fence?

    Some light relief for today, our rabbit (Not the one in my picture - another one) has apparently broken her leg. It's going to be... expensive.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Hain told BBC Two’s Newsnight: “It’s for members of the public and others to judge whether I was right or wrong. There’s no point in being there if you never discharge that and deploy the precious right of parliamentary privilege, to be used extremely carefully with integrity and very responsibly.”

    Well, quite.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,538
    MattW said:

    Is this a problem? *innocent face*

    (Lordy he looks like a more decrepit version of Piers Morgan)

    https://twitter.com/legalcheek/status/1055810322211180546

    You could say that.

    Philip Green could sue to recover all of the fees that he's paid out, plus damages for professional negligence.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,891
    Mr. Pulpstar, hope your rabbit is mended soon. And inexpensively.

    Did Lord Hain declare any kind of interest?
  • kjhkjh Posts: 13,146
    OldKingCole said:

    kjh said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Interesting scam. Just had a phone call to tell me I’ve won the New York lottery. Since I never buy lottery tickets here, let alone American ones I wonder how I did that.
    I was asked to press ‘button 1’ to talk to the Lottery management. I wonder how much that would have cost!

    It wouldn't have cost you anything to have pressed button 1. Worth a go for some fun. I suspect there would have been an issue in getting the funds to you and that would have required you to pay something to some official who needs to sort it out or they could have just been fishing for some bank details, but I'm guessing the former. It will be a variation on the Nigerian scam. Although you are told not to go along with this stuff I love to waste their time. I've put them on hold listening to the radio before, got then to call back cos I am busy, fished for details and just go along with it. They don't seem very bright (assume it's just a script) as being Donald Duck doesn't seem to click with them. I actually managed to identify one scam once that was UK based and reported it to the police. Not interested which was very frustrating.
    While I agree about fun that can be had, this seemed to be a recording. I’ve wound up ‘people’ who have phoned up claiming to be from Microsoft’s Technical Dept.... keep ‘em talking for a while until getting bored and telling them I use Linux (untrue) or a mac (true). One chap who I’d been stringing along, and who I eventually told I had a mac told me I was very wise!
    Pressing 1 will have got you thru' to a human or a call back (actually more likely neither as they are doing so many, so lots just get dropped). Yes MS support is great fun, although I do find that they get very very angry in the end - I have been subjected to some vile abuse, which pleased me. If busy I must admit I do just tell them to **** off. Currently I seem to be have a lot of accidents in my car that are not my fault.

    I am disappointed by the lack of action from the police (admittedly a lot of these are from abroad). It seems that now bank robberies and wage heists are a thing of the past (for obvious reasons) the police haven't moved onto the replacement activities of the felons.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    O/T: The good news is that the High Court has ruled Lloyds Bank, and presumably other pension schemes, should equalise pension payments for men and women.

    The bad news is that this 'equalisation' only applies in favour of women, not men who have had 5 years less pension entitlement. In fact it's precisely because women got a better deal that the payments have to be equalised in their favour, apparently:

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/oct/26/lloyds-faces-bill-150m-pensions-discrimination-ruling
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,891
    Mr. Nabavi, that's a very special definition of equality.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    DavidL said:

    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    MattW said:

    Is this a problem?

    (Lordy he looks like a more decrepit version of Piers Morgan)

    ttwitter.com/legalcheek/status/1055810322211180546

    Oops, yes, it looks like a problem.
    FFS. Is he mad?
    Time to tap the strategic popcorn reserve.
    The managing partner of that firm must have gone through several pairs of trousers since yesterday. What an idiot.
    To what extent would a firm be at risk if an external advisor did something stupid on his or her own initiative, which may have benefited the firm but where the firm was completely unaware of any intention of the action being planned?

    I can see why it would be a problem if it was an employee. I can also see why an executive could have trouble with his or her board about judgement, appointments, contracts and PR by association, but in terms of actual wrongdoing? I don't see it.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Pulpstar said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Pulpstar, are you saying Lord Cuprinol should've stayed on the fence?

    Some light relief for today, our rabbit (Not the one in my picture - another one) has apparently broken her leg. It's going to be... expensive.
    To be honest, I'd be considering culinary options at this point.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited October 2018
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Nabavi, that's a very special definition of equality.

    I believe it's the same definition as the Women's Equality Party uses.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    O/T: The good news is that the High Court has ruled Lloyds Bank, and presumably other pension schemes, should equalise pension payments for men and women.

    The bad news is that this 'equalisation' only applies in favour of women, not men who have had 5 years less pension entitlement. In fact it's precisely because women got a better deal that the payments have to be equalised in their favour, apparently:

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/oct/26/lloyds-faces-bill-150m-pensions-discrimination-ruling

    It's a lot more complicated than that, I'm afraid, Richard. Sometimes men benefit, sometimes women. More often women, admittedly. It's a fairly sensible judgment though ridiculously long. It could have been a quarter the length.

    This case is likely to keep me occupied for the next few months in a variety of fashions. So there's always an upside.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Homophobe:

    https://twitter.com/dupleader/status/1055825818365161477?s=21
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,891
    Mr. Nabavi, the unwitting yet blatant sexism of Parliament's Women and Equalities Select Committee is just as daft.

    "We're here to ensure equality for everyone. Not you, ball carriers."
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1055837096970199040
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    O/T: The good news is that the High Court has ruled Lloyds Bank, and presumably other pension schemes, should equalise pension payments for men and women.

    The bad news is that this 'equalisation' only applies in favour of women, not men who have had 5 years less pension entitlement. In fact it's precisely because women got a better deal that the payments have to be equalised in their favour, apparently:

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/oct/26/lloyds-faces-bill-150m-pensions-discrimination-ruling

    It's a lot more complicated than that, I'm afraid, Richard. Sometimes men benefit, sometimes women. More often women, admittedly. It's a fairly sensible judgment though ridiculously long. It could have been a quarter the length.

    This case is likely to keep me occupied for the next few months in a variety of fashions. So there's always an upside.
    Yes, but the central point is that if you start with different retirement ages, you can't equalise things: it's fundamentally and irrevocably unequal. It's a logical nonsense to focus on one tiny part of the tail of the elephant in the room.

    But I take your point about the pleasing complexity, from a lawyer's point of view!
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,693
    edited October 2018
    kjh said:

    OldKingCole said:

    kjh said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Interesting scam. Just had a phone call to tell me I’ve won the New York lottery. Since I never buy lottery tickets here, let alone American ones I wonder how I did that.
    I was asked to press ‘button 1’ to talk to the Lottery management. I wonder how much that would have cost!

    It wouldn't have cost you anything to have pressed button 1. Worth a go for some fun. I suspect there would have been an issue in getting the funds to you and that would have required you to pay something to some official who needs to sort it out or they could have just been fishing for some bank details, but I'm guessing the former. It will be a variation on the Nigerian scam. Although you are told not to go along with this stuff I love to waste their time. I've put them on hold listening to the radio before, got then to call back cos I am busy, fished for details and just go along with it. They don't seem very bright (assume it's just a script) as being Donald Duck doesn't seem to click with them. I actually managed to identify one scam once that was UK based and reported it to the police. Not interested which was very frustrating.
    While I agree about fun that can be had, this seemed to be a recording. I’ve wound up ‘people’ who have phoned up claiming to be from Microsoft’s Technical Dept.... keep ‘em talking for a while until getting bored and telling them I use Linux (untrue) or a mac (true). One chap who I’d been stringing along, and who I eventually told I had a mac told me I was very wise!
    Pressing 1 will have got you thru' to a human or a call back (actually more likely neither as they are doing so many, so lots just get dropped). Yes MS support is great fun, although I do find that they get very very angry in the end - I have been subjected to some vile abuse, which pleased me. If busy I must admit I do just tell them to **** off. Currently I seem to be have a lot of accidents in my car that are not my fault.

    I am disappointed by the lack of action from the police (admittedly a lot of these are from abroad). It seems that now bank robberies and wage heists are a thing of the past (for obvious reasons) the police haven't moved onto the replacement activities of the felons.
    Interesting about bank robberies. In rural and semi rural East Anglia there seems to be a fashion for stealing heavy diggers and such and using them to remove ATMs from, particularly, Co-op supermarkets. The digger is usually abandoned once no longer useful and the ATM put on a utility vehicle and never seen again.
    There seems to be one of these robberies every couple of weeks!
  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DavidL said:

    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    MattW said:

    Is this a problem?

    (Lordy he looks like a more decrepit version of Piers Morgan)

    ttwitter.com/legalcheek/status/1055810322211180546

    Oops, yes, it looks like a problem.
    FFS. Is he mad?
    Time to tap the strategic popcorn reserve.
    The managing partner of that firm must have gone through several pairs of trousers since yesterday. What an idiot.
    I feel sorry for the person that underwrote their PI cover.
    But think of next year's premiums!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,538
    david_herdson said:

    DavidL said:

    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    MattW said:

    Is this a problem?

    (Lordy he looks like a more decrepit version of Piers Morgan)

    ttwitter.com/legalcheek/status/1055810322211180546

    Oops, yes, it looks like a problem.
    FFS. Is he mad?
    Time to tap the strategic popcorn reserve.
    The managing partner of that firm must have gone through several pairs of trousers since yesterday. What an idiot.
    To what extent would a firm be at risk if an external advisor did something stupid on his or her own initiative, which may have benefited the firm but where the firm was completely unaware of any intention of the action being planned?

    I can see why it would be a problem if it was an employee. I can also see why an executive could have trouble with his or her board about judgement, appointments, contracts and PR by association, but in terms of actual wrongdoing? I don't see it.
    I misread the link, so I thought he worked for the firm that was representing Philip Green.

    However, if he's engaged as a consultant by Gordon Dadds, I think that the firm could be in trouble.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,693
    CarlottaVance said:

    Homophobe:

    https://twitter.com/dupleader/status/1055825818365161477?s=21

    Hate the sin but love the sinner. Or something like that. Not normally a sentiment I’ve associated with the DUP, though.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    O/T: The good news is that the High Court has ruled Lloyds Bank, and presumably other pension schemes, should equalise pension payments for men and women.

    The bad news is that this 'equalisation' only applies in favour of women, not men who have had 5 years less pension entitlement. In fact it's precisely because women got a better deal that the payments have to be equalised in their favour, apparently:

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/oct/26/lloyds-faces-bill-150m-pensions-discrimination-ruling

    It's a lot more complicated than that, I'm afraid, Richard. Sometimes men benefit, sometimes women. More often women, admittedly. It's a fairly sensible judgment though ridiculously long. It could have been a quarter the length.

    This case is likely to keep me occupied for the next few months in a variety of fashions. So there's always an upside.
    Yes, but the central point is that if you start with different retirement ages, you can't equalise things: it's fundamentally and irrevocably unequal. It's a logical nonsense to focus on one tiny part of the tail of the elephant in the room.

    But I take your point about the pleasing complexity, from a lawyer's point of view!
    Retirement ages in occupational pension schemes were largely equalised in the early 1990s. This bit was left over mainly because no one knew how to do it (most pension lawyers were expecting the answer on the main point, it was the detail where there was no consensus). The judgment gives a route map.

    It will make little difference to members' benefits, in general. The bigger cost for most pension schemes is going to be the administrative and professional fees in the unravelling.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 13,146
    OldKingCole said:

    kjh said:

    OldKingCole said:

    kjh said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Interesting scam. Just had a phone call to tell me I’ve won the New York lottery. Since I never buy lottery tickets here, let alone American ones I wonder how I did that.
    I was asked to press ‘button 1’ to talk to the Lottery management. I wonder how much that would have cost!

    It wouldn't have cost you anything to have pressed button 1. Worth a go for some fun. I suspect there would have been an issue in getting the funds to you and that would have required you to pay something to some official who needs to sort it out or they could have just been fishing for some bank details, but I'm guessing the former. It will be a variation on the Nigerian scam. Although you are told not to go along with this stuff I love to waste their time. I've put them on hold listening to the radio before, got then to call back cos I am busy, fished for details and just go along with it. They don't seem very bright (assume it's just a script) as being Donald Duck doesn't seem to click with them. I actually managed to identify one scam once that was UK based and reported it to the police. Not interested which was very frustrating.
    While I agree about fun that can be had, this seemed to be a recording. I’ve wound up ‘people’ who have phoned up claiming to be from Microsoft’s Technical Dept.... keep ‘em talking for a while until getting bored and telling them I use Linux (untrue) or a mac (true). One chap who I’d been stringing along, and who I eventually told I had a mac told me I was very wise!
    Pressing 1 will have got you thru' to a human or a call back (actually more likely neither as they are doing so many, so lots just get dropped). Yes MS support is great fun, although I do find that they get very very angry in the end - I have been subjected to some vile abuse, which pleased me. If busy I must admit I do just tell them to **** off. Currently I seem to be have a lot of accidents in my car that are not my fault.

    I am disappointed by the lack of action from the police (admittedly a lot of these are from abroad). It seems that now bank robberies and wage heists are a thing of the past (for obvious reasons) the police haven't moved onto the replacement activities of the felons.
    Interesting about bank robberies. In rural and semi rural East Anglia there seems to be a fashion for stealing heavy diggers and such and using them to remove ATMs from, particularly, Co-op supermarkets. The digger is usually abandoned once no longer useful and the ATM put on a utility vehicle and never seen again.
    There seems to be one of these robberies every couple of weeks!
    We get loads of them in Surrey also. In several cases they damn near destroy the building. A local Nationwide never opened again.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1055837096970199040

    He didn't do his homework very well, then.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,891
    Arrest over US mail bombings:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-45996655
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    CarlottaVance said:

    Homophobe:

    https://twitter.com/dupleader/status/1055825818365161477?s=21

    A happy coincidence that the Scottish Conservatives and the DUP take a very similar view of the proper approach to the question of the Irish border.

    But well done to Arlene Foster anyway for showing a human side.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,403
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1055837096970199040

    He didn't do his homework very well, then.
    How could he possibly know though? Surely they weren't going to tell him if he asked.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Stark_Dawning said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1055837096970199040

    He didn't do his homework very well, then.
    How could he possibly know though? Surely they weren't going to tell him if he asked.
    Well, he should have checked whether there might be a conflict of interest in such a high-profile case, or he could have relied on Google:

    https://www.law.com/legal-week/2018/10/24/gordon-dadds-and-schillings-take-headline-roles-on-telegraph-metoo-court-challenge/?slreturn=20180926110927
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,693
    kjh said:

    OldKingCole said:

    kjh said:

    OldKingCole said:

    kjh said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Interesting scam. Just had a phone call to tell me I’ve won the New York lottery. Since I never buy lottery tickets here, let alone American ones I wonder how I did that.
    I was asked to press ‘button 1’ to talk to the Lottery management. I wonder how much that would have cost!

    It wouldn't have cost you anything to have pressed button 1. Worth a go for some fun. I suspect there would have been an issue in getting the funds to you and that would have required you to pay something to some official who needs to sort it out or they could have just been fishing for some bank details, but I'm guessing the former. It will be a variation on the Nigerian scam. Although you are told not to go along with this stuff I love to waste their time. I've put them on hold listening to the radio before, got then to call back cos I am busy, fished for details and just go along with it. They don't seem very bright (assume it's just a script) as being Donald Duck doesn't seem to click with them. I actually managed to identify one scam once that was UK based and reported it to the police. Not interested which was very frustrating.
    While I agree about fun that can be had, this seemed to be a recording. I’ve wound up ‘people’ who have phoned up claiming to be from Microsoft’s Technical Dept.... keep ‘em talking for a while until getting bored and telling them I use Linux (untrue) or a mac (true). One chap who I’d been stringing along, and who I eventually told I had a mac told me I was very wise!

    I am disappointed by the lack of action from the police (admittedly a lot of these are from abroad). It seems that now bank robberies and wage heists are a thing of the past (for obvious reasons) the police haven't moved onto the replacement activities of the felons.
    Interesting about bank robberies. In rural and semi rural East Anglia there seems to be a fashion for stealing heavy diggers and such and using them to remove ATMs from, particularly, Co-op supermarkets. The digger is usually abandoned once no longer useful and the ATM put on a utility vehicle and never seen again.
    There seems to be one of these robberies every couple of weeks!
    We get loads of them in Surrey also. In several cases they damn near destroy the building. A local Nationwide never opened again.
    They raided somewhere opposite a block of flats not far from us, woke up the residents, one of whom took a video of what went on.
    No, AFAIK no-one’s been arrested.
    How much cash is there in a ‘full’ ATM?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    OldKingCole said:

    They raided somewhere opposite a block of flats not far from us, woke up the residents, one of whom took a video of what went on.
    No, AFAIK no-one’s been arrested.
    How much cash is there in a ‘full’ ATM?

    Why do you want to know? :)
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    JosiasJessop said:

    I'm starting to think that the US is no longer a functioning democracy. This is not directly to do with partisan politics, but to the fact they rely on processes and systems that cannot guarantee the results reflect the voters' views.

    The old voting machines were bad enough (remember Mr Hanging Chad?), but since then things have got worse; including newer, worse machines and potential foreign interventions.

    I will not be able to say for sure that whoever 'wins' the midterms will be the real winner.

    And this is a terrible place for a democracy to end up.

    The American obsession with voting machines over paper ballots is genuinely perplexing to me.

    Along with the whole incredibly limited voting locations in, ahem, certain neighbourhoods resulting in multi hour long waits.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,693
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    OldKingCole said:

    They raided somewhere opposite a block of flats not far from us, woke up the residents, one of whom took a video of what went on.
    No, AFAIK no-one’s been arrested.
    How much cash is there in a ‘full’ ATM?

    Why do you want to know? :)
    Asking for a friend, of course!
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,338
    Hain has released a statement, claims he didn't know about Gordon Dodds advising The Telegraph. I'm sure it might cause some merriment amongst PB's lawyers.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1055837096970199040

    He didn't do his homework very well, then.
    It's in the heading of the judgment.

    https://www.bailii.org/ew/cases/EWCA/Civ/2018/2329.html
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    Stark_Dawning said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1055837096970199040

    He didn't do his homework very well, then.
    How could he possibly know though? Surely they weren't going to tell him if he asked.
    I imagine that they would do if he said that he was planning on naming Green. It's not as if they would need to reveal the details of their Telegraph case to him.
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