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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A reminder of how GE2015 UKIP voters voted at GE2017
The most recent GB wide opinion polls, as collated by Wikipedia. https://t.co/XJhbZIFOjo pic.twitter.com/PK3Ng1vZTl
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First!0
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Third! Like Boris....0
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typical mid term blues for the governing party
Up to a point, Lord Copper.
Level pegging with the opposition (at worst) or even possibly several points ahead of them are the lightest of light blue 'mid-term blues'.0 -
That Wikipedia table is out of date:
Today's Opinium poll: "The Conservatives have opened up a four-point lead over Labour despite Theresa May’s mounting troubles over Brexit, according to the latest Opinium/Observer poll. The Tories have gained two points since last week and are now at 41%, while Labour has fallen by two points to 37%."
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We can safely say that someone "like JRM" will drive away a lot more potential support than s/he might drag in from the far right.0
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Reading TSE’s piece, I thought for a moment that Tommy Robinson had become the actual Leader of UKIP. Even UKIP hasn’t sunk so low!
Otherwise I agree with Ms Vance; surely we should expect a party in Government, especially one doing what this one is doing, to be trailing by fourteen points, not leading by four.0 -
UKIP if you want to, the lady ‘s not for kippers.0
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I thought the days of a “short campaign” were behind us, let alone the FTPA:
https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1051356068146753537?s=200 -
Good morning, everyone.
Miss Vance, that'd be weird, given the Conservative don't, apparently, have enough candidates.
That's before we get into history repeating itself as farce.0 -
Who are these fabled people adding UKIP to the Tories? I can't recall anybody here doing it. Even when they were polling 7%, I was suggesting that at best it could add 2-2.5% to the Tory lead.
Although that might still be the difference between minorty and majority Govt.
The Tories target is not those who are telling the pollsters they are Kippers. It is those who are saying "Oh FFS....what are you lot doing?" on the dorstep. They are the ones they have to win back.0 -
If the government is unable to reach a deal with the EU, 31% of respondents said the UK should leave without a deal and with no further votes, 23% said there should a second Brexit referendum, 14% said there should be a general election and 13% said the government should try to extend the negotiation period beyond March 2019.
https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/13/tories-take-four-point-lead-over-labour-despite-brexit-troubles0 -
All this UKIP talk is a red herring. The real problem causing gridlock isn't Brexit, it's the two main party leaders. They are essentially symbiotic - without the other, they'd be further behind their rivals than a child's scooter in a ten mile drag race against Lewis Hamilton's Mercedes.Jonathan said:UKIP if you want to, the lady ‘s not for kippers.
The next election may well be won by whoever ditches their leader at the right moment. The advantage the Tories have is they can control that moment, whereas Corbyn holds his fate in his own hands.
In the meanwhile of course we're in a state of political paralysis not seen since the days of the egregious paedophile Lord Melbourne, but you can't win them all.0 -
Tories need to note that May (not Boris) has the party in the lead in what are the most challenging circumstances.MarqueeMark said:Who are these fabled people adding UKIP to the Tories? I can't recall anybody here doing it. Even when they were polling 7%, I was suggesting that at best it could add 2-2.5% to the Tory lead.
Although that might still be the difference between minorty and majority Govt.
The Tories target is not those who are telling the pollsters they are Kippers. It is those who are saying "Oh FFS....what are you lot doing?" on the dorstep. They are the ones they have to win back.
As I said the other day, her positioning is damn near perfect (for the Tories) it’s her execution that lets her down.
A move to chuck May and swerve in one Brexit direction with a more ideological leader could be a costly error.0 -
How anyone votes, let alone current and former UKIP voters, is going to be dependent on the type of Brexit we achieve, the actual policies of the parties and their perceived credibility or lack thereof. UKIP were always a one trick pony on immigration and under the current leadership seem to be turning into a party obsessed by Islam.
The problem for the Tories is that they have no obvious electoral appeal under May. They, are a tax and spend party with Hammond as Chancellor caught in a standard of living crisis of their own making and are not so much negotiating Brexit as having the EU’s terms dictated to them by Robbins.
Labour have reverted back to the economic insanity of Foot’s day and are exposed due the misogyny and anti-semitism rife in their party.
The next election is going to be a choice between two parties of political incompetents. How did it get to this ?0 -
True. But it only works for as long as she doesn't actually have to pick an option.Jonathan said:
Tories need to note that May (not Boris) has the party in the lead in what are the most challenging circumstances.MarqueeMark said:Who are these fabled people adding UKIP to the Tories? I can't recall anybody here doing it. Even when they were polling 7%, I was suggesting that at best it could add 2-2.5% to the Tory lead.
Although that might still be the difference between minorty and majority Govt.
The Tories target is not those who are telling the pollsters they are Kippers. It is those who are saying "Oh FFS....what are you lot doing?" on the dorstep. They are the ones they have to win back.
As I said the other day, her positioning is damn near perfect (for the Tories) it’s her execution that lets her down.
A move to chuck May and swerve in one Brexit direction with a more ideological leader could be a costly error.0 -
Not sure I agree. While we can't be sure yet, I suspect TMay is going to pull off a reasonable deal, and as per previous thread get it through HoC. Davis's desperate intervention is perhaps a measure that he knows it too. Given the circumstances, it would be a tremendous achievement, and should strengthen her position. For the first time, I'm beginning to think she'll lead the Tories to an outright victory at the next GE, whenever that is.ydoethur said:
All this UKIP talk is a red herring. The real problem causing gridlock isn't Brexit, it's the two main party leaders. They are essentially symbiotic - without the other, they'd be further behind their rivals than a child's scooter in a ten mile drag race against Lewis Hamilton's Mercedes.Jonathan said:UKIP if you want to, the lady ‘s not for kippers.
The next election may well be won by whoever ditches their leader at the right moment. The advantage the Tories have is they can control that moment, whereas Corbyn holds his fate in his own hands.
In the meanwhile of course we're in a state of political paralysis not seen since the days of the egregious paedophile Lord Melbourne, but you can't win them all.0 -
31% of 81% (who expressed a preference) is a mighty big slab of voters to piss off with a half-arsed deal....CarlottaVance said:If the government is unable to reach a deal with the EU, 31% of respondents said the UK should leave without a deal and with no further votes, 23% said there should a second Brexit referendum, 14% said there should be a general election and 13% said the government should try to extend the negotiation period beyond March 2019.
https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/13/tories-take-four-point-lead-over-labour-despite-brexit-troubles0 -
May has a lot of enemies now and will need to avoid repeating silly mistakes, any one could trigger a challenge. She is prone to mistakes.ThomasNashe said:
Not sure I agree. While we can't be sure yet, I suspect TMay is going to pull off a reasonable deal, and as per previous thread get it through HoC. Davis's desperate intervention is perhaps a measure that he knows it too. Given the circumstances, it would be a tremendous achievement, and should strengthen her position. For the first time, I'm beginning to think she'll lead the Tories to an outright victory at the next GE, whenever that is.ydoethur said:
All this UKIP talk is a red herring. The real problem causing gridlock isn't Brexit, it's the two main party leaders. They are essentially symbiotic - without the other, they'd be further behind their rivals than a child's scooter in a ten mile drag race against Lewis Hamilton's Mercedes.Jonathan said:UKIP if you want to, the lady ‘s not for kippers.
The next election may well be won by whoever ditches their leader at the right moment. The advantage the Tories have is they can control that moment, whereas Corbyn holds his fate in his own hands.
In the meanwhile of course we're in a state of political paralysis not seen since the days of the egregious paedophile Lord Melbourne, but you can't win them all.0 -
The deal May is discussing is not reasonable. She is basically agreeing to the permanent partition of the UK.ThomasNashe said:
Not sure I agree. While we can't be sure yet, I suspect TMay is going to pull off a reasonable deal, and as per previous thread get it through HoC. Davis's desperate intervention is perhaps a measure that he knows it too. Given the circumstances, it would be a tremendous achievement, and should strengthen her position. For the first time, I'm beginning to think she'll lead the Tories to an outright victory at the next GE, whenever that is.ydoethur said:
All this UKIP talk is a red herring. The real problem causing gridlock isn't Brexit, it's the two main party leaders. They are essentially symbiotic - without the other, they'd be further behind their rivals than a child's scooter in a ten mile drag race against Lewis Hamilton's Mercedes.Jonathan said:UKIP if you want to, the lady ‘s not for kippers.
The next election may well be won by whoever ditches their leader at the right moment. The advantage the Tories have is they can control that moment, whereas Corbyn holds his fate in his own hands.
In the meanwhile of course we're in a state of political paralysis not seen since the days of the egregious paedophile Lord Melbourne, but you can't win them all.
I understand that Remainers would want a soft (or no) Brexit. But there is frankly no excuse for people turning a blind eye to what May is doing, which is indeed the most serious constitutional outrage committed in a century or more.
It is almost like Remainers are more interested in stopping Brexit than supporting their own country....0 -
She is indeed. But you have to admire her resilience.Jonathan said:
May has a lot of enemies now and will need to avoid repeating silly mistakes, any one could trigger a challenge. She is prone to mistakes.ThomasNashe said:
Not sure I agree. While we can't be sure yet, I suspect TMay is going to pull off a reasonable deal, and as per previous thread get it through HoC. Davis's desperate intervention is perhaps a measure that he knows it too. Given the circumstances, it would be a tremendous achievement, and should strengthen her position. For the first time, I'm beginning to think she'll lead the Tories to an outright victory at the next GE, whenever that is.ydoethur said:
All this UKIP talk is a red herring. The real problem causing gridlock isn't Brexit, it's the two main party leaders. They are essentially symbiotic - without the other, they'd be further behind their rivals than a child's scooter in a ten mile drag race against Lewis Hamilton's Mercedes.Jonathan said:UKIP if you want to, the lady ‘s not for kippers.
The next election may well be won by whoever ditches their leader at the right moment. The advantage the Tories have is they can control that moment, whereas Corbyn holds his fate in his own hands.
In the meanwhile of course we're in a state of political paralysis not seen since the days of the egregious paedophile Lord Melbourne, but you can't win them all.0 -
The fact is that 'soft Brexit' is where the consensus between the majority of remainers and the majority of leavers lies.archer101au said:
The deal May is discussing is not reasonable. She is basically agreeing to the permanent partition of the UK.ThomasNashe said:
Not sure I agree. While we can't be sure yet, I suspect TMay is going to pull off a reasonable deal, and as per previous thread get it through HoC. Davis's desperate intervention is perhaps a measure that he knows it too. Given the circumstances, it would be a tremendous achievement, and should strengthen her position. For the first time, I'm beginning to think she'll lead the Tories to an outright victory at the next GE, whenever that is.ydoethur said:
All this UKIP talk is a red herring. The real problem causing gridlock isn't Brexit, it's the two main party leaders. They are essentially symbiotic - without the other, they'd be further behind their rivals than a child's scooter in a ten mile drag race against Lewis Hamilton's Mercedes.Jonathan said:UKIP if you want to, the lady ‘s not for kippers.
The next election may well be won by whoever ditches their leader at the right moment. The advantage the Tories have is they can control that moment, whereas Corbyn holds his fate in his own hands.
In the meanwhile of course we're in a state of political paralysis not seen since the days of the egregious paedophile Lord Melbourne, but you can't win them all.
I understand that Remainers would want a soft (or no) Brexit. But there is frankly no excuse for people turning a blind eye to what May is doing, which is indeed the most serious constitutional outrage committed in a century or more.
It is almost like Remainers are more interested in stopping Brexit than supporting their own country....0 -
She is the political equivalent of Monty Python’s black knight. Resilient, brave but ultimately a little misguided and perhaps a little silly. Some of her wounds were avoidable.ThomasNashe said:
She is indeed. But you have to admire her resilience.Jonathan said:
May has a lot of enemies now and will need to avoid repeating silly mistakes, any one could trigger a challenge. She is prone to mistakes.ThomasNashe said:
Not sure I agree. While we can't be sure yet, I suspect TMay is going to pull off a reasonable deal, and as per previous thread get it through HoC. Davis's desperate intervention is perhaps a measure that he knows it too. Given the circumstances, it would be a tremendous achievement, and should strengthen her position. For the first time, I'm beginning to think she'll lead the Tories to an outright victory at the next GE, whenever that is.ydoethur said:
All this UKIP talk is a red herring. The real problem causing gridlock isn't Brexit, it's the two main party leaders. They are essentially symbiotic - without the other, they'd be further behind their rivals than a child's scooter in a ten mile drag race against Lewis Hamilton's Mercedes.Jonathan said:UKIP if you want to, the lady ‘s not for kippers.
The next election may well be won by whoever ditches their leader at the right moment. The advantage the Tories have is they can control that moment, whereas Corbyn holds his fate in his own hands.
In the meanwhile of course we're in a state of political paralysis not seen since the days of the egregious paedophile Lord Melbourne, but you can't win them all.
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Unfortunately it is her Cabinet colleagues who find her "a bloody difficult woman" - not, as billed in May 2017, the EU.ThomasNashe said:
She is indeed. But you have to admire her resilience.Jonathan said:
May has a lot of enemies now and will need to avoid repeating silly mistakes, any one could trigger a challenge. She is prone to mistakes.ThomasNashe said:
Not sure I agree. While we can't be sure yet, I suspect TMay is going to pull off a reasonable deal, and as per previous thread get it through HoC. Davis's desperate intervention is perhaps a measure that he knows it too. Given the circumstances, it would be a tremendous achievement, and should strengthen her position. For the first time, I'm beginning to think she'll lead the Tories to an outright victory at the next GE, whenever that is.ydoethur said:
All this UKIP talk is a red herring. The real problem causing gridlock isn't Brexit, it's the two main party leaders. They are essentially symbiotic - without the other, they'd be further behind their rivals than a child's scooter in a ten mile drag race against Lewis Hamilton's Mercedes.Jonathan said:UKIP if you want to, the lady ‘s not for kippers.
The next election may well be won by whoever ditches their leader at the right moment. The advantage the Tories have is they can control that moment, whereas Corbyn holds his fate in his own hands.
In the meanwhile of course we're in a state of political paralysis not seen since the days of the egregious paedophile Lord Melbourne, but you can't win them all.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/02/theresa-may-warns-jean-claude-juncker-will-bloody-difficult/0 -
True. I think that explains the Tories polling comparatively well. They would be mad to get rid of her. But doing mad things is sort of their thing.ThomasNashe said:
She is indeed. But you have to admire her resilience.Jonathan said:
May has a lot of enemies now and will need to avoid repeating silly mistakes, any one could trigger a challenge. She is prone to mistakes.ThomasNashe said:
Not sure I agree. While we can't be sure yet, I suspect TMay is going to pull off a reasonable deal, and as per previous thread get it through HoC. Davis's desperate intervention is perhaps a measure that he knows it too. Given the circumstances, it would be a tremendous achievement, and should strengthen her position. For the first time, I'm beginning to think she'll lead the Tories to an outright victory at the next GE, whenever that is.ydoethur said:
All this UKIP talk is a red herring. The real problem causing gridlock isn't Brexit, it's the two main party leaders. They are essentially symbiotic - without the other, they'd be further behind their rivals than a child's scooter in a ten mile drag race against Lewis Hamilton's Mercedes.Jonathan said:UKIP if you want to, the lady ‘s not for kippers.
The next election may well be won by whoever ditches their leader at the right moment. The advantage the Tories have is they can control that moment, whereas Corbyn holds his fate in his own hands.
In the meanwhile of course we're in a state of political paralysis not seen since the days of the egregious paedophile Lord Melbourne, but you can't win them all.0 -
If there is one thing we can be sure of, it's that the old rules (y'know, like sanity) don't apply any more. So your case is plausible. I have said for a while that my personal view is that both parties will slip back from their 2017 popular vote, so the party that hangs on to more is likely to do better.ThomasNashe said:Not sure I agree. While we can't be sure yet, I suspect TMay is going to pull off a reasonable deal, and as per previous thread get it through HoC. Davis's desperate intervention is perhaps a measure that he knows it too. Given the circumstances, it would be a tremendous achievement, and should strengthen her position. For the first time, I'm beginning to think she'll lead the Tories to an outright victory at the next GE, whenever that is.
May has advantages and disadvantages for the Tories from that point of view. If she pulls off a decent Brexit deal, she may get credit for it. As the incumbent PM, she also controls most of the key factors including possibly the timing of the election. However, I personally think she is unlikely to get credit for solving a problem people largely if incorrectly believe is of her own creation. There are also a number of other major problems looming, notably UC which will be a fiasco and probably a recession which will be unpopular. Those are unlikely to persuade voters she is a safe pair of hands. We also already know she's a dud campaigner.
However, Corbyn's one strength - his campaigning ability - is likely to be less effective next time after he has been forced to row back on or downplay so many features of his former manifesto and admit his pledges were not costed, and has had to spend most of the summer trying to explain he's not a racist (I said, again, that he would live to regret that story dominating the silly season). He is also going to have to explain how a 70 year old who has never had any job of any sort and is known for his indecision and administrative incompetence is fit to be PM - a question nobody asked before because everyone knew he wasn't going to win.
The only reason May might call an early election is to ensure she is still leader, because she will be out by the summer. But that's not a good reason and I think at the first sign of moving towards it she will be defenestrated.
However, just to remind everyone how wrong predictions can be:
https://youtu.be/G87UXIH8Lzo0 -
Archer, you’re clearly passionate, angry and view Brexit in binary terms , but it would be nice/wise. if you toned it down a bit. Outrage and betrayal is a little much before 9am on a Sunday morning.archer101au said:
The deal May is discussing is not reasonable. She is basically agreeing to the permanent partition of the UK.ThomasNashe said:
Not sure I agree. While we can't be sure yet, I suspect TMay is going to pull off a reasonable deal, and as per previous thread get it through HoC. Davis's desperate intervention is perhaps a measure that he knows it too. Given the circumstances, it would be a tremendous achievement, and should strengthen her position. For the first time, I'm beginning to think she'll lead the Tories to an outright victory at the next GE, whenever that is.ydoethur said:
All this UKIP talk is a red herring. The real problem causing gridlock isn't Brexit, it's the two main party leaders. They are essentially symbiotic - without the other, they'd be further behind their rivals than a child's scooter in a ten mile drag race against Lewis Hamilton's Mercedes.Jonathan said:UKIP if you want to, the lady ‘s not for kippers.
The next election may well be won by whoever ditches their leader at the right moment. The advantage the Tories have is they can control that moment, whereas Corbyn holds his fate in his own hands.
In the meanwhile of course we're in a state of political paralysis not seen since the days of the egregious paedophile Lord Melbourne, but you can't win them all.
I understand that Remainers would want a soft (or no) Brexit. But there is frankly no excuse for people turning a blind eye to what May is doing, which is indeed the most serious constitutional outrage committed in a century or more.
It is almost like Remainers are more interested in stopping Brexit than supporting their own country....
There is a lot to play out in Brexit. We know it’s complex once you get beyond the slogans. If you accept that, different positions of versions of Brexit are possible. We need to understand the implications of each. Much is at stake.0 -
May is a known if suboptimal quality. In the absence of any clear cut alternatives who are likely to do better, that is helping her considerably.Recidivist said:
True. I think that explains the Tories polling comparatively well. They would be mad to get rid of her. But doing mad things is sort of their thing.ThomasNashe said:
She is indeed. But you have to admire her resilience.Jonathan said:
May has a lot of enemies now and will need to avoid repeating silly mistakes, any one could trigger a challenge. She is prone to mistakes.ThomasNashe said:
Not sure I agree. While we can't be sure yet, I suspect TMay is going to pull off a reasonable deal, and as per previous thread get it through HoC. Davis's desperate intervention is perhaps a measure that he knows it too. Given the circumstances, it would be a tremendous achievement, and should strengthen her position. For the first time, I'm beginning to think she'll lead the Tories to an outright victory at the next GE, whenever that is.ydoethur said:
All this UKIP talk is a red herring. The real problem causing gridlock isn't Brexit, it's the two main party leaders. They are essentially symbiotic - without the other, they'd be further behind their rivals than a child's scooter in a ten mile drag race against Lewis Hamilton's Mercedes.Jonathan said:UKIP if you want to, the lady ‘s not for kippers.
The next election may well be won by whoever ditches their leader at the right moment. The advantage the Tories have is they can control that moment, whereas Corbyn holds his fate in his own hands.
In the meanwhile of course we're in a state of political paralysis not seen since the days of the egregious paedophile Lord Melbourne, but you can't win them all.
However, that was also the case in 1990 and it didn't save Thatcher.0 -
And therin lies the problem. There probably is a majority for a soft Brexit in EFTA/EEA but it is an unstable state of being that is unlikely to last.ThomasNashe said:
The fact is that 'soft Brexit' is where the consensus between the majority of remainers and the majority of leavers lies.archer101au said:
The deal May is discussing is not reasonable. She is basically agreeing to the permanent partition of the UK.ThomasNashe said:
Not sure I agree. While we can't be sure yet, I suspect TMay is going to pull off a reasonable deal, and as per previous thread get it through HoC. Davis's desperate intervention is perhaps a measure that he knows it too. Given the circumstances, it would be a tremendous achievement, and should strengthen her position. For the first time, I'm beginning to think she'll lead the Tories to an outright victory at the next GE, whenever that is.ydoethur said:
All this UKIP talk is a red herring. The real problem causing gridlock isn't Brexit, it's the two main party leaders. They are essentially symbiotic - without the other, they'd be further behind their rivals than a child's scooter in a ten mile drag race against Lewis Hamilton's Mercedes.Jonathan said:UKIP if you want to, the lady ‘s not for kippers.
The next election may well be won by whoever ditches their leader at the right moment. The advantage the Tories have is they can control that moment, whereas Corbyn holds his fate in his own hands.
In the meanwhile of course we're in a state of political paralysis not seen since the days of the egregious paedophile Lord Melbourne, but you can't win them all.
I understand that Remainers would want a soft (or no) Brexit. But there is frankly no excuse for people turning a blind eye to what May is doing, which is indeed the most serious constitutional outrage committed in a century or more.
It is almost like Remainers are more interested in stopping Brexit than supporting their own country....0 -
I am not talking about different forms of Brexit. I am talking about May agreeing to a backstop that will divide the UK. This is what is being proposed NOW, and I am asking Remainers whether they favour it or not. Simple question. I expect constant attempts to evade getting an answer, just as you did.Jonathan said:
Archer, you’re clearly passionate, angry and view Brexit in binary terms , but it would be nice/wise. if you toned it down a bit. Outrage and betrayal is a little much before 9am on a Sunday morning.archer101au said:
The deal May is discussing is not reasonable. She is basically agreeing to the permanent partition of the UK.ThomasNashe said:
Not sure I agree. While we can't be sure yet, I suspect TMay is going to pull off a reasonable deal, and as per previous thread get it through HoC. Davis's desperate intervention is perhaps a measure that he knows it too. Given the circumstances, it would be a tremendous achievement, and should strengthen her position. For the first time, I'm beginning to think she'll lead the Tories to an outright victory at the next GE, whenever that is.ydoethur said:
All this UKIP talk is a red herring. The real problem causing gridlock isn't Brexit, it's the two main party leaders. They are essentially symbiotic - without the other, they'd be further behind their rivals than a child's scooter in a ten mile drag race against Lewis Hamilton's Mercedes.Jonathan said:UKIP if you want to, the lady ‘s not for kippers.
The next election may well be won by whoever ditches their leader at the right moment. The advantage the Tories have is they can control that moment, whereas Corbyn holds his fate in his own hands.
In the meanwhile of course we're in a state of political paralysis not seen since the days of the egregious paedophile Lord Melbourne, but you can't win them all.
I understand that Remainers would want a soft (or no) Brexit. But there is frankly no excuse for people turning a blind eye to what May is doing, which is indeed the most serious constitutional outrage committed in a century or more.
It is almost like Remainers are more interested in stopping Brexit than supporting their own country....
There is a lot to play out in Brexit. We know it’s complex once you get beyond the slogans. If you accept that, different positions of versions of Brexit are possible. We need to understand the implications of each. Much is at stake.0 -
In 1990 Michael Heseltine was a very clear alternative, wasn’t he?ydoethur said:
May is a known if suboptimal quality. In the absence of any clear cut alternatives who are likely to do better, that is helping her considerably.Recidivist said:
True. I think that explains the Tories polling comparatively well. They would be mad to get rid of her. But doing mad things is sort of their thing.ThomasNashe said:
She is indeed. But you have to admire her resilience.Jonathan said:
May has a lot of enemies now and will need to avoid repeating silly mistakes, any one could trigger a challenge. She is prone to mistakes.ThomasNashe said:
Not sure I agree. While we can't be sure yet, I suspect TMay is going to pull off a reasonable deal, and as per previous thread get it through HoC. Davis's desperate intervention is perhaps a measure that he knows it too. Given the circumstances, it would be a tremendous achievement, and should strengthen her position. For the first time, I'm beginning to think she'll lead the Tories to an outright victory at the next GE, whenever that is.ydoethur said:
All this UKIP talk is a red herring. The real problem causing gridlock isn't Brexit, it's the two main party leaders. They are essentially symbiotic - without the other, they'd be further behind their rivals than a child's scooter in a ten mile drag race against Lewis Hamilton's Mercedes.Jonathan said:UKIP if you want to, the lady ‘s not for kippers.
The next election may well be won by whoever ditches their leader at the right moment. The advantage the Tories have is they can control that moment, whereas Corbyn holds his fate in his own hands.
In the meanwhile of course we're in a state of political paralysis not seen since the days of the egregious paedophile Lord Melbourne, but you can't win them all.
However, that was also the case in 1990 and it didn't save Thatcher.0 -
Wasn't discussing soft Brexit. I was discussing the backstop. I don't think that the consensus of the country is at all that May should divide NI from the UK just because the EU asked her to. I suspect the vast majority will consider it unacceptable.ThomasNashe said:
The fact is that 'soft Brexit' is where the consensus between the majority of remainers and the majority of leavers lies.archer101au said:
The deal May is discussing is not reasonable. She is basically agreeing to the permanent partition of the UK.ThomasNashe said:
Not sure I agree. While we can't be sure yet, I suspect TMay is going to pull off a reasonable deal, and as per previous thread get it through HoC. Davis's desperate intervention is perhaps a measure that he knows it too. Given the circumstances, it would be a tremendous achievement, and should strengthen her position. For the first time, I'm beginning to think she'll lead the Tories to an outright victory at the next GE, whenever that is.ydoethur said:
All this UKIP talk is a red herring. The real problem causing gridlock isn't Brexit, it's the two main party leaders. They are essentially symbiotic - without the other, they'd be further behind their rivals than a child's scooter in a ten mile drag race against Lewis Hamilton's Mercedes.Jonathan said:UKIP if you want to, the lady ‘s not for kippers.
The next election may well be won by whoever ditches their leader at the right moment. The advantage the Tories have is they can control that moment, whereas Corbyn holds his fate in his own hands.
In the meanwhile of course we're in a state of political paralysis not seen since the days of the egregious paedophile Lord Melbourne, but you can't win them all.
I understand that Remainers would want a soft (or no) Brexit. But there is frankly no excuse for people turning a blind eye to what May is doing, which is indeed the most serious constitutional outrage committed in a century or more.
It is almost like Remainers are more interested in stopping Brexit than supporting their own country....
She said it was something no UK PM could ever agree to - now she is trying to agree to it (there is no difference between a customs border and regulatory border; they both divide the UK economically). And worse, she is trying to break her promise that it should be time limited.
So, time for the Remainers to declare where they stand.0 -
It doesn't need to last long, and this is where the EU are (not for the first time) making a cretinous and entirely avoidable mistake. Five years of EEA and we could be able to exit properly with limited damage to either side. But that isn't what they want. They are playing with Fire and could end up getting everyone burned.Foxy said:
And therin lies the problem. There probably is a majority for a soft Brexit in EFTA/EEA but it is an unstable state of being that is unlikely to last.ThomasNashe said:
The fact is that 'soft Brexit' is where the consensus between the majority of remainers and the majority of leavers lies.archer101au said:
The deal May is discussing is not reasonable. She is basically agreeing to the permanent partition of the UK.ThomasNashe said:
Not sure I agree. While we can't be sure yet, I suspect TMay is going to pull off a reasonable deal, and as per previous thread get it through HoC. Davis's desperate intervention is perhaps a measure that he knows it too. Given the circumstances, it would be a tremendous achievement, and should strengthen her position. For the first time, I'm beginning to think she'll lead the Tories to an outright victory at the next GE, whenever that is.ydoethur said:
All this UKIP talk is a red herring. The real problem causing gridlock isn't Brexit, it's the two main party leaders. They are essentially symbiotic - without the other, they'd be further behind their rivals than a child's scooter in a ten mile drag race against Lewis Hamilton's Mercedes.Jonathan said:UKIP if you want to, the lady ‘s not for kippers.
The next election may well be won by whoever ditches their leader at the right moment. The advantage the Tories have is they can control that moment, whereas Corbyn holds his fate in his own hands.
In the meanwhile of course we're in a state of political paralysis not seen since the days of the egregious paedophile Lord Melbourne, but you can't win them all.
I understand that Remainers would want a soft (or no) Brexit. But there is frankly no excuse for people turning a blind eye to what May is doing, which is indeed the most serious constitutional outrage committed in a century or more.
It is almost like Remainers are more interested in stopping Brexit than supporting their own country....0 -
He was the high profile alternative. Among MPs he was however Boris to Thatcher's May. He was widely disliked and distrusted and with two exceptions the entire cabinet conspired to screw him over.JohnO said:
In 1990 Michael Heseltine was a very clear alternative, wasn’t he?ydoethur said:
May is a known if suboptimal quality. In the absence of any clear cut alternatives who are likely to do better, that is helping her considerably.Recidivist said:
True. I think that explains the Tories polling comparatively well. They would be mad to get rid of her. But doing mad things is sort of their thing.ThomasNashe said:
She is indeed. But you have to admire her resilience.Jonathan said:
May has a lot of enemies now and will need to avoid repeating silly mistakes, any one could trigger a challenge. She is prone to mistakes.ThomasNashe said:
Not sure I agree. While we can't be sure yet, I suspect TMay is going to pull off a reasonable deal, and as per previous thread get it through HoC. Davis's desperate intervention is perhaps a measure that he knows it too. Given the circumstances, it would be a tremendous achievement, and should strengthen her position. For the first time, I'm beginning to think she'll lead the Tories to an outright victory at the next GE, whenever that is.ydoethur said:
All this UKIP talk is a red herring. The real problem causing gridlock isn't Brexit, it's the two main party leaders. They are essentially symbiotic - without the other, they'd be further behind their rivals than a child's scooter in a ten mile drag race against Lewis Hamilton's Mercedes.Jonathan said:UKIP if you want to, the lady ‘s not for kippers.
The next election may well be won by whoever ditches their leader at the right moment. The advantage the Tories have is they can control that moment, whereas Corbyn holds his fate in his own hands.
In the meanwhile of course we're in a state of political paralysis not seen since the days of the egregious paedophile Lord Melbourne, but you can't win them all.
However, that was also the case in 1990 and it didn't save Thatcher.0 -
He was also the alternative who turned a 10% Labour poll lead to level pegging which was a big incentive for backbenchers in marginal seats who, with the blessed Margaret, were facing being out of job, suddenly realised with Tarzan they might keep their employment.JohnO said:
In 1990 Michael Heseltine was a very clear alternative, wasn’t he?
0 -
Didn’t get it though, did he!JohnO said:
In 1990 Michael Heseltine was a very clear alternative, wasn’t he?ydoethur said:
May is a known if suboptimal quality. In the absence of any clear cut alternatives who are likely to do better, that is helping her considerably.Recidivist said:
True. I think that explains the Tories polling comparatively well. They would be mad to get rid of her. But doing mad things is sort of their thing.ThomasNashe said:
She is indeed. But you have to admire her resilience.Jonathan said:
May has a lot of enemies now and will need to avoid repeating silly mistakes, any one could trigger a challenge. She is prone to mistakes.ThomasNashe said:
Not sure I agree. While we can't be sure yet, I suspect TMay is going to pull off a reasonable deal, and as per previous thread get it through HoC. Davis's desperate intervention is perhaps a measure that he knows it too. Given the circumstances, it would be a tremendous achievement, and should strengthen her position. For the first time, I'm beginning to think she'll lead the Tories to an outright victory at the next GE, whenever that is.ydoethur said:
All this UKIP talk is a red herring. The real problem causing gridlock isn't Brexit, it's the two main party leaders. They are essentially symbiotic - without the other, they'd be further behind their rivals than a child's scooter in a ten mile drag race against Lewis Hamilton's Mercedes.Jonathan said:UKIP if you want to, the lady ‘s not for kippers.
The next election may well be won by whoever ditches their leader at the right moment. The advantage the Tories have is they can control that moment, whereas Corbyn holds his fate in his own hands.
In the meanwhile of course we're in a state of political paralysis not seen since the days of the egregious paedophile Lord Melbourne, but you can't win them all.
However, that was also the case in 1990 and it didn't save Thatcher.0 -
Eh?archer101au said:
I am not talking about different forms of Brexit. I am talking about May agreeing to a backstop that will divide the UK. This is what is being proposed NOW, and I am asking Remainers whether they favour it or not. Simple question. I expect constant attempts to evade getting an answer, just as you did.Jonathan said:
Archer, you’re clearly passionate, angry and view Brexit in binary terms , but it would be nice/wise. if you toned it down a bit. Outrage and betrayal is a little much before 9am on a Sunday morning.archer101au said:
The deal May is discussing is not reasonable. She is basically agreeing to the permanent partition of the UK.ThomasNashe said:
Not sure Iwhenever that is.ydoethur said:
All this UKIP talk is a red herring. The real problem causing gridlock isn't Brexit, it's the two main party leaders. They are essentially symbiotic - without the other, they'd be further behind their rivals than a child's scooter in a ten mile drag race against Lewis Hamilton's Mercedes.Jonathan said:UKIP if you want to, the lady ‘s not for kippers.
The next election may well be won by whoever ditches their leader at the right moment. The advantage the Tories have is they can control that moment, whereas Corbyn holds his fate in his own hands.
In the meanwhile of course we're in a state of political paralysis not seen since the days of the egregious paedophile Lord Melbourne, but you can't win them all.
I understand that Remainers would want a soft (or no) Brexit. But there is frankly no excuse for people turning a blind eye to what May is doing, which is indeed the most serious constitutional outrage committed in a century or more.
It is almost like Remainers are more interested in stopping Brexit than supporting their own country....
There is a lot to play out in Brexit. We know it’s complex once you get beyond the slogans. If you accept that, different positions of versions of Brexit are possible. We need to understand the implications of each. Much is at stake.
I want a solution that does not kill the economy or burns bridges with people we’re going to have to work with after all this is over.
Since Britain ultimately is responsible here, we asked for this divorce, morally we need to take on the majority of the difficult compromises
Since there are already different legal jurisdictions and tax regimes within the UK, I don’t see different regulations in NI as a red line.
It’s not ideal, but neither is Brexit.0 -
We aren't at mid-term yet.CarlottaVance said:typical mid term blues for the governing party
Up to a point, Lord Copper.
Level pegging with the opposition (at worst) or even possibly several points ahead of them are the lightest of light blue 'mid-term blues'.0 -
Most of us would settle for limited damage right now. But let's not forget remaining would be no damage.ydoethur said:
It doesn't need to last long, and this is where the EU are (not for the first time) making a cretinous and entirely avoidable mistake. Five years of EEA and we could be able to exit properly with limited damage to either side. But that isn't what they want. They are playing with Fire and could end up getting everyone burned.Foxy said:
And therin lies the problem. There probably is a majority for a soft Brexit in EFTA/EEA but it is an unstable state of being that is unlikely to last.ThomasNashe said:
The fact is that 'soft Brexit' is where the consensus between the majority of remainers and the majority of leavers lies.archer101au said:
The deal May is discussing is not reasonable. She is basically agreeing to the permanent partition of the UK.ThomasNashe said:
Not sure I agree. While we can't be sure yet, I suspect TMay is going to pull off a reasonable deal, and as per previous thread get it through HoC. Davis's desperate intervention is perhaps a measure that he knows it too. Given the circumstances, it would be a tremendous achievement, and should strengthen her position. For the first time, I'm beginning to think she'll lead the Tories to an outright victory at the next GE, whenever that is.ydoethur said:
All this UKIP talk is a red herring. The real problem causing gridlock isn't Brexit, it's the two main party leaders. They are essentially symbiotic - without the other, they'd be further behind their rivals than a child's scooter in a ten mile drag race against Lewis Hamilton's Mercedes.Jonathan said:UKIP if you want to, the lady ‘s not for kippers.
The next election may well be won by whoever ditches their leader at the right moment. The advantage the Tories have is they can control that moment, whereas Corbyn holds his fate in his own hands.
In the meanwhile of course we're in a state of political paralysis not seen since the days of the egregious paedophile Lord Melbourne, but you can't win them all.
I understand that Remainers would want a soft (or no) Brexit. But there is frankly no excuse for people turning a blind eye to what May is doing, which is indeed the most serious constitutional outrage committed in a century or more.
It is almost like Remainers are more interested in stopping Brexit than supporting their own country....0 -
It would not cause economic damage. I can't help but feel it would cause very considerable political and social damage in other ways.Recidivist said:
Most of us would settle for limited damage right now. But let's not forget remaining would be no damage.ydoethur said:
It doesn't need to last long, and this is where the EU are (not for the first time) making a cretinous and entirely avoidable mistake. Five years of EEA and we could be able to exit properly with limited damage to either side. But that isn't what they want. They are playing with Fire and could end up getting everyone burned.Foxy said:
And therin lies the problem. There probably is a majority for a soft Brexit in EFTA/EEA but it is an unstable state of being that is unlikely to last.ThomasNashe said:
The fact is that 'soft Brexit' is where the consensus between the majority of remainers and the majority of leavers lies.archer101au said:
The deal May is discussing is not reasonable. She is basically agreeing to the permanent partition of the UK.ThomasNashe said:
Not sure I agree. While we can't be sure yet, I suspect TMay is going to pull off a reasonable deal, and as per previous thread get it through HoC. Davis's desperate intervention is perhaps a measure that he knows it too. Given the circumstances, it would be a tremendous achievement, and should strengthen her position. For the first time, I'm beginning to think she'll lead the Tories to an outright victory at the next GE, whenever that is.ydoethur said:
All this UKIP talk is a red herring. The real problem causing gridlock isn't Brexit, it's the two main party leaders. They are essentially symbiotic - without the other, they'd be further behind their rivals than a child's scooter in a ten mile drag race against Lewis Hamilton's Mercedes.Jonathan said:UKIP if you want to, the lady ‘s not for kippers.
The next election may well be won by whoever ditches their leader at the right moment. The advantage the Tories have is they can control that moment, whereas Corbyn holds his fate in his own hands.
In the meanwhile of course we're in a state of political paralysis not seen since the days of the egregious paedophile Lord Melbourne, but you can't win them all.
I understand that Remainers would want a soft (or no) Brexit. But there is frankly no excuse for people turning a blind eye to what May is doing, which is indeed the most serious constitutional outrage committed in a century or more.
It is almost like Remainers are more interested in stopping Brexit than supporting their own country....0 -
Thank you for answering the question. I hope the other Remainers will also do so.Jonathan said:
Eh?
I want a solution that does not kill the economy or burns bridges with people we’re going to have to work with after all this is over.
Since Britain ultimately is responsible here, we asked for this divorce, morally we need to take on the majority of the difficult compromises
Since there are already different legal jurisdictions and tax regimes within the UK, I don’t see different regulations in NI as a red line.
It’s not ideal, but neither is Brexit.
Another question - if NI ended up in the SM and CU with GB outside (eg a customs border in the Irish Sea) do you consider that acceptable?0 -
Mr. Jonathan, there's a difference between regulatory differences due to devolved power and regulatory differences due to foreign power.0
-
+1Jonathan said:
Tories need to note that May (not Boris) has the party in the lead in what are the most challenging circumstances.MarqueeMark said:Who are these fabled people adding UKIP to the Tories? I can't recall anybody here doing it. Even when they were polling 7%, I was suggesting that at best it could add 2-2.5% to the Tory lead.
Although that might still be the difference between minorty and majority Govt.
The Tories target is not those who are telling the pollsters they are Kippers. It is those who are saying "Oh FFS....what are you lot doing?" on the dorstep. They are the ones they have to win back.
As I said the other day, her positioning is damn near perfect (for the Tories) it’s her execution that lets her down.
A move to chuck May and swerve in one Brexit direction with a more ideological leader could be a costly error.0 -
You could always try asking LEAVE voters as well or do you assume we all think as you do?archer101au said:
I am not talking about different forms of Brexit. I am talking about May agreeing to a backstop that will divide the UK. This is what is being proposed NOW, and I am asking Remainers whether they favour it or not. Simple question. I expect constant attempts to evade getting an answer, just as you did.
I don't.
0 -
TBH, I may be out on a limb here, but I think it’s being abundantly demonstrated that the EU omelette has been made and we really cannot reconstitute the eggs.archer101au said:
Wasn't discussing soft Brexit. I was discussing the backstop. I don't think that the consensus of the country is at all that May should divide NI from the UK just because the EU asked her to. I suspect the vast majority will consider it unacceptable.ThomasNashe said:
The fact is that 'soft Brexit' is where the consensus between the majority of remainers and the majority of leavers lies.archer101au said:
The deal May is discussing is not reasonable. She is basically agreeing to the permanent partition of the UK.ThomasNashe said:
Not sure I agree. While we can't be sure yet, I suspect TMay is going to pull off a reasonable deal, and as per previous thread get it through HoC. Davis's desperate intervention is perhaps a measure that he knows it too. Given the circumstances, it would be a tremendous achievement, and should strengthen her position. For the first time, I'm beginning to think she'll lead the Tories to an outright victory at the next GE, whenever that is.ydoethur said:
All this UKIP talk is a red herring. The real problem causing gridlock isn't Brexit, it's the two main party leaders. They are essentially symbiotic - without the other, they'd be further behind their rivals than a child's scooter in a ten mile drag race against Lewis Hamilton's Mercedes.Jonathan said:UKIP if you want to, the lady ‘s not for kippers.
The next election may well be won by whoever ditches their leader at the right moment. The advantage the Tories have is they can control that moment, whereas Corbyn holds his fate in his own hands.
In the meanwhile of course we're in a state of political paralysis not seen since the days of the egregious paedophile Lord Melbourne, but you can't win them all.
It is almost like Remainers are more interested in stopping Brexit than supporting their own country....
She said it was something no UK PM could ever agree to - now she is trying to agree to it (there is no difference between a customs border and regulatory border; they both divide the UK economically). And worse, she is trying to break her promise that it should be time limited.
So, time for the Remainers to declare where they stand.
Furthermore it’s also clear that the Leave campaign ran one of, if not the, most dishonest campaigns we’ve had since the secret ballot was introduced and the duty of the PM now is to says so and withdraw the Article 50 letter.0 -
I don't have much sympathy with Foster however. It's in her power to restore devolution tomorrow to sort it out, or at least, royally bugger the EU and UK by vetoing their proposals.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Jonathan, there's a difference between regulatory differences due to devolved power and regulatory differences due to foreign power.
But because Sinn Fein - rightly - will not work with her, and she refuses to resign and let someone else have a go, she's condemning Northern Ireland to limbo.0 -
It’s not ideal. But it might be the best of all possible worlds. Candide.archer101au said:
Thank you for answering the question. I hope the other Remainers will also do so.Jonathan said:
Eh?
I want a solution that does not kill the economy or burns bridges with people we’re going to have to work with after all this is over.
Since Britain ultimately is responsible here, we asked for this divorce, morally we need to take on the majority of the difficult compromises
Since there are already different legal jurisdictions and tax regimes within the UK, I don’t see different regulations in NI as a red line.
It’s not ideal, but neither is Brexit.
Another question - if NI ended up in the SM and CU with GB outside (eg a customs border in the Irish Sea) do you consider that acceptable?0 -
152 votes to Mrs T’s 204 doesn’t suggest that to be entirely the case. But I do agree that today Mrs May is in a somewhat stronger position. Who knows what the ‘deal’ (if any) will be....I don’t think we’ll find out one way or the other until late next month or early December. Many more excitements and alarums to go yet.ydoethur said:
He was the high profile alternative. Among MPs he was however Boris to Thatcher's May. He was widely disliked and distrusted and with two exceptions the entire cabinet conspired to screw him over.JohnO said:
In 1990 Michael Heseltine was a very clear alternative, wasn’t he?ydoethur said:
May is a known if suboptimal quality. In the absence of any clear cut alternatives who are likely to do better, that is helping her considerably.Recidivist said:
True. I think that explains the Tories polling comparatively well. They would be mad to get rid of her. But doing mad things is sort of their thing.ThomasNashe said:
She is indeed. But you have to admire her resilience.Jonathan said:
May has a lot of enemies now and will need to avoid repeating silly mistakes, any one could trigger a challenge. She is prone to mistakes.ThomasNashe said:
Not sure I agree. While we can't be sure yet, I suspect TMay is going to pull off a reasonable deal, and as per previous thread get it through HoC. Davis's desperate intervention is perhaps a measure that he knows it too. Given the circumstances, it would be a tremendous achievement, and should strengthen her position. For the first time, I'm beginning to think she'll lead the Tories to an outright victory at the next GE, whenever that is.ydoethur said:
All this UKIP talk is a red herring. The real problem causing gridlock isn't Brexit, it's the two main party leaders. They are essentially symbiotic - without the other, they'd be further behind their rivals than a child's scooter in a ten mile drag race against Lewis Hamilton's Mercedes.Jonathan said:UKIP if you want to, the lady ‘s not for kippers.
The next election may well be won by whoever ditches their leader at the right moment. The advantage the Tories have is they can control that moment, whereas Corbyn holds his fate in his own hands.
In the meanwhile of course we're in a state of political paralysis not seen since the days of the egregious paedophile Lord Melbourne, but you can't win them all.
However, that was also the case in 1990 and it didn't save Thatcher.0 -
Remember 8 out of 10 catowners wanted Whiskas. I seem to recall it had tp be changed to of those who expressed a preference..... i trust this sort of info with a great deal of scepticismMarqueeMark said:
31% of 81% (who expressed a preference) is a mighty big slab of voters to piss off with a half-arsed deal....CarlottaVance said:If the government is unable to reach a deal with the EU, 31% of respondents said the UK should leave without a deal and with no further votes, 23% said there should a second Brexit referendum, 14% said there should be a general election and 13% said the government should try to extend the negotiation period beyond March 2019.
https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/13/tories-take-four-point-lead-over-labour-despite-brexit-troubles0 -
The only way that would work is if Northern Ireland united with the Republic.Jonathan said:
It’s not ideal. But it might be the best of all possible worlds. Candide.archer101au said:
Thank you for answering the question. I hope the other Remainers will also do so.Jonathan said:
Eh?
I want a solution that does not kill the economy or burns bridges with people we’re going to have to work with after all this is over.
Since Britain ultimately is responsible here, we asked for this divorce, morally we need to take on the majority of the difficult compromises
Since there are already different legal jurisdictions and tax regimes within the UK, I don’t see different regulations in NI as a red line.
It’s not ideal, but neither is Brexit.
Another question - if NI ended up in the SM and CU with GB outside (eg a customs border in the Irish Sea) do you consider that acceptable?
Since the Unionists have been making it abundantly if implicitly clear that would lead to a return of civil war and terrorism this might not be perhaps be the best outcome.
But again, part of the problem is the EU is insisting Northern Ireland is a special case but that Ireland isn't. Recognising and accepting the Common Travel Area would solve most of these problems tomorrow.0 -
Well quite. If the devolved assembly was up and running, you’d have the perfect place to make the choice. The DUP have much to answer for.ydoethur said:
I don't have much sympathy with Foster however. It's in her power to restore devolution tomorrow to sort it out, or at least, royally bugger the EU and UK by vetoing their proposals.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Jonathan, there's a difference between regulatory differences due to devolved power and regulatory differences due to foreign power.
But because Sinn Fein - rightly - will not work with her, and she refuses to resign and let someone else have a go, she's condemning Northern Ireland to limbo.
0 -
Do you think the people of Northern Ireland have the right to say no to that?Jonathan said:
It’s not ideal. But it might be the best of all possible worlds. Candide.archer101au said:
Thank you for answering the question. I hope the other Remainers will also do so.Jonathan said:
Eh?
I want a solution that does not kill the economy or burns bridges with people we’re going to have to work with after all this is over.
Since Britain ultimately is responsible here, we asked for this divorce, morally we need to take on the majority of the difficult compromises
Since there are already different legal jurisdictions and tax regimes within the UK, I don’t see different regulations in NI as a red line.
It’s not ideal, but neither is Brexit.
Another question - if NI ended up in the SM and CU with GB outside (eg a customs border in the Irish Sea) do you consider that acceptable?0 -
Even Anthony Meyer had the overt or implicit backing of 15% of the party.JohnO said:
152 votes to Mrs T’s 204 doesn’t suggest that to be entirely the case. But I do agree that today Mrs May is in a somewhat stronger position. Who knows what the ‘deal’ (if any) will be....I don’t think we’ll find out one way or the other until late next month or early December. Many more excitements and alarums to go yet.ydoethur said:
He was the high profile alternative. Among MPs he was however Boris to Thatcher's May. He was widely disliked and distrusted and with two exceptions the entire cabinet conspired to screw him over.JohnO said:
In 1990 Michael Heseltine was a very clear alternative, wasn’t he?ydoethur said:
May is a known if suboptimal quality. In the absence of any clear cut alternatives who are likely to do better, that is helping her considerably.Recidivist said:
True. I think that explains the Tories polling comparatively well. They would be mad to get rid of her. But doing mad things is sort of their thing.ThomasNashe said:
She is indeed. But you have to admire her resilience.Jonathan said:
May has a lot of enemies now and will need to avoid repeating silly mistakes, any one could trigger a challenge. She is prone to mistakes.ThomasNashe said:
Not sure I agree. While we can't be sure yet, I suspect TMay is going to pull off a reasonable deal, and as per previous thread get it through HoC. Davis's desperate intervention is perhaps a measure that he knows it too. Given the circumstances, it would be a tremendous achievement, and should strengthen her position. For the first time, I'm beginning to think she'll lead the Tories to an outright victory at the next GE, whenever that is.ydoethur said:
All this UKIP talk is a red herring. The real problem causing gridlock isn't Brexit, it's the two main party leaders. They are essentially symbiotic - without the other, they'd be further behind their rivals than a child's scooter in a ten mile drag race against Lewis Hamilton's Mercedes.Jonathan said:UKIP if you want to, the lady ‘s not for kippers.
The next election may well be won by whoever ditches their leader at the right moment. The advantage the Tories have is they can control that moment, whereas Corbyn holds his fate in his own hands.
In the meanwhile of course we're in a state of political paralysis not seen since the days of the egregious paedophile Lord Melbourne, but you can't win them all.
However, that was also the case in 1990 and it didn't save Thatcher.0 -
Exactly so. Leavers have everything they want. The Tories are now the Leave party. The referendum shows leaving is popular. But it's a big project and it needs a secure government to implement it. There's no shame in delaying the deed itself until after the next election and spending the time until then getting ready for it.OldKingCole said:
TBH, I may be out on a limb here, but I think it’s being abundantly demonstrated that the EU omelette has been made and we really cannot reconstitute the eggs.archer101au said:
Wasn't discussing soft Brexit. I was discussing the backstop. I don't think that the consensus of the country is at all that May should divide NI from the UK just because the EU asked her to. I suspect the vast majority will consider it unacceptable.ThomasNashe said:
The fact is that 'soft Brexit' is where the consensus between the majority of remainers and the majority of leavers lies.archer101au said:
The deal May is discussing is not reasonable. She is basically agreeing to the permanent partition of the UK.ThomasNashe said:
Not st is.ydoethur said:
All this UKIP talk is a red herring. The real problem causing gridlock isn't Brexit, it's the two main party leaders. They are essentially symbiotic - without the other, they'd be further behind their rivals than a child's scooter in a ten mile drag race against Lewis Hamilton's Mercedes.Jonathan said:UKIP if you want to, the lady ‘s not for kippers.
The next election may well be won by whoever ditches their leader at the right moment. The advantage the Tories have is they can control that moment, whereas Corbyn holds his fate in his own hands.
In the meanwhile of course we're in a state of political paralysis not seen since the days of the egregious paedophile Lord Melbourne, but you can't win them all.
It is almost like Remainers are more interested in stopping Brexit than supporting their own country....
She said it was something no UK PM could ever agree to - now she is trying to agree to it (there is no difference between a customs border and regulatory border; they both divide the UK economically). And worse, she is trying to break her promise that it should be time limited.
So, time for the Remainers to declare where they stand.
Furthermore it’s also clear that the Leave campaign ran one of, if not the, most dishonest campaigns we’ve had since the secret ballot was introduced and the duty of the PM now is to says so and withdraw the Article 50 letter.
Why not?0 -
And let's remember why we are having to face the UK being divided. It's not down to any issue imposed by the UK leaving the EU club. It's down to the innate paranoia of the Eurocrats - that in three, five, ten years time, whenever we finally leave, other current members will look at the deal we got and think "You know, that will do for us too...."archer101au said:I am not talking about different forms of Brexit. I am talking about May agreeing to a backstop that will divide the UK. This is what is being proposed NOW, and I am asking Remainers whether they favour it or not. Simple question. I expect constant attempts to evade getting an answer, just as you did.
0 -
Because we need the consent of the EU, and they have made it clear such consent would not be forthcoming until after an election had been held:Recidivist said:Exactly so. Leavers have everything they want. The Tories are now the Leave party. The referendum shows leaving is popular. But it's a big project and it needs a secure government to implement it. There's no shame in delaying the deed itself until after the next election and spending the time until then getting ready for it.
Why not?
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/22/article-50-extension-unlikely-without-shift-in-uk-politics-say-eu-officials0 -
And Heseltine had the explicit support of 41%, which rather proves my point. But that’s history (though some of us oldies remember it as yesterday).ydoethur said:
Even Anthony Meyer had the overt or implicit backing of 15% of the party.JohnO said:
152 votes to Mrs T’s 204 doesn’t suggest that to be entirely the case. But I do agree that today Mrs May is in a somewhat stronger position. Who knows what the ‘deal’ (if any) will be....I don’t think we’ll find out one way or the other until late next month or early December. Many more excitements and alarums to go yet.ydoethur said:
He was the high profile alternative. Among MPs he was however Boris to Thatcher's May. He was widely disliked and distrusted and with two exceptions the entire cabinet conspired to screw him over.JohnO said:
In 1990 Michael Heseltine was a very clear alternative, wasn’t he?ydoethur said:
May is a known if suboptimal quality. In the absence of any clear cut alternatives who are likely to do better, that is helping her considerably.Recidivist said:
True. I think that explains the Tories polling comparatively well. They would be mad to get rid of her. But doing mad things is sort of their thing.ThomasNashe said:
She is indeed. But you have to admire her resilience.Jonathan said:
May has a lot of enemies now and will need to avoid repeating silly mistakes, any one could trigger a challenge. She is prone to mistakes.ThomasNashe said:
Not sure Istrengthen her position. For the first time, I'm beginning to think she'll lead the Tories to an outright victory at the next GE, whenever that is.ydoethur said:
All this UKIP talk is a red herring. The real problem causing gridlock isn't Brexit, it's the two main party leaders. They are essentially symbiotic - without the other, they'd be further behind their rivals than a child's scooter in a ten mile drag race against Lewis Hamilton's Mercedes.Jonathan said:UKIP if you want to, the lady ‘s not for kippers.
The next election may well be won by whoever ditches their leader at the right moment. The advantage the Tories have is they can control that moment, whereas Corbyn holds his fate in his own hands.
In the meanwhile of course we're in a state of political paralysis not seen since the days of the egregious paedophile Lord Melbourne, but you can't win them all.
However, that was also the case in 1990 and it didn't save Thatcher.0 -
So we come down to that grittiest of questions within any democratic system - does a minority have the right to frustrate the wishes of the majority?tlg86 said:
Do you think the people of Northern Ireland have the right to say no to that?
If the majority of the rest of the UK are happy with a deal which leaves Northern Ireland in a different regulatory environment to the rest of the UK and with a different relationship to the EU than the rest of the UK, do or should the people of Northern Ireland (who may themselves be deeply divided) have an inherent veto on that deal?
If it was Surrey or Birmingham, would the same apply?
As someone might have said, do the wishes of the many outweigh the wishes of the few?0 -
Ah, the good old days. We had a better class of blond ambition back then.JohnO said:
And Heseltine had the explicit support of 41%, which rather proves my point. But that’s history (though some of us oldies remember it as yesterday).ydoethur said:
Even Anthony Meyer had the overt or implicit backing of 15% of the party.JohnO said:
152 votes to Mrs T’s 204 doesn’t suggest that to be entirely the case. But I do agree that today Mrs May is in a somewhat stronger position. Who knows what the ‘deal’ (if any) will be....I don’t think we’ll find out one way or the other until late next month or early December. Many more excitements and alarums to go yet.ydoethur said:
He was the high profile alternative. Among MPs he was however Boris to Thatcher's May. He was widely disliked and distrusted and with two exceptions the entire cabinet conspired to screw him over.JohnO said:
In 1990 Michael Heseltine was a very clear alternative, wasn’t he?ydoethur said:
May is a known if suboptimal quality. In the absence of any clear cut alternatives who are likely to do better, that is helping her considerably.Recidivist said:
True. I think that explains the Tories polling comparatively well. They would be mad to get rid of her. But doing mad things is sort of their thing.ThomasNashe said:
She is indeed. But you have to admire her resilience.Jonathan said:
May has a lot of enemies now and will need to avoid repeating silly mistakes, any one could trigger a challenge. She is prone to mistakes.ThomasNashe said:
Not sure Istrengthen her position. For the first time, I'm beginning to think she'll lead the Tories to an outright victory at the next GE, whenever that is.ydoethur said:
All this UKIP talk is a red herring. The real problem causing gridlock isn't Brexit, it's the two main party leaders. They are essentially symbiotic - without the other, they'd be further behind their rivals than a child's scooter in a ten mile drag race against Lewis Hamilton's Mercedes.Jonathan said:UKIP if you want to, the lady ‘s not for kippers.
The next election may well be won by whoever ditches their leader at the right moment. The advantage the Tories have is they can control that moment, whereas Corbyn holds his fate in his own hands.
In the meanwhile of course we're in a state of political paralysis not seen since the days of the egregious paedophile Lord Melbourne, but you can't win them all.
However, that was also the case in 1990 and it didn't save Thatcher.0 -
And lest we forget, NI voted to Remain by a clear marginstodge said:
So we come down to that grittiest of questions within any democratic system - does a minority have the right to frustrate the wishes of the majority?tlg86 said:
Do you think the people of Northern Ireland have the right to say no to that?
If the majority of the rest of the UK are happy with a deal which leaves Northern Ireland in a different regulatory environment to the rest of the UK and with a different relationship to the EU than the rest of the UK, do or should the people of Northern Ireland (who may themselves be deeply divided) have an inherent veto on that deal?
If it was Surrey or Birmingham, would the same apply?
As someone might have said, do the wishes of the many outweigh the wishes of the few?0 -
The 19% who didn't express an opinion may well have a significant overlap with those who don't vote. So 31% of 81% could equate with up to 38% of voters.SquareRoot said:
Remember 8 out of 10 catowners wanted Whiskas. I seem to recall it had tp be changed to of those who expressed a preference..... i trust this sort of info with a great deal of scepticismMarqueeMark said:
31% of 81% (who expressed a preference) is a mighty big slab of voters to piss off with a half-arsed deal....CarlottaVance said:If the government is unable to reach a deal with the EU, 31% of respondents said the UK should leave without a deal and with no further votes, 23% said there should a second Brexit referendum, 14% said there should be a general election and 13% said the government should try to extend the negotiation period beyond March 2019.
https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/13/tories-take-four-point-lead-over-labour-despite-brexit-troubles0 -
Remember, no matter how you are doing today at least you are not Freddie Burns.0
-
Expelling part of a state from its single market does seem quite an extreme measure.stodge said:
So we come down to that grittiest of questions within any democratic system - does a minority have the right to frustrate the wishes of the majority?tlg86 said:
Do you think the people of Northern Ireland have the right to say no to that?
If the majority of the rest of the UK are happy with a deal which leaves Northern Ireland in a different regulatory environment to the rest of the UK and with a different relationship to the EU than the rest of the UK, do or should the people of Northern Ireland (who may themselves be deeply divided) have an inherent veto on that deal?
If it was Surrey or Birmingham, would the same apply?
As someone might have said, do the wishes of the many outweigh the wishes of the few?0 -
ydoethur said:
Five years of EEA would also make rejoining much easier!Foxy said:
It doesn't need to last long, and this is where the EU are (not for the first time) making a cretinous and entirely avoidable mistake. Five years of EEA and we could be able to exit properly with limited damage to either side. But that isn't what they want. They are playing with Fire and could end up getting everyone burned.ThomasNashe said:
And therin lies the problem. There probably is a majority for a soft Brexit in EFTA/EEA but it is an unstable state of being that is unlikely to last.archer101au said:
The fact is that 'soft Brexit' is where the consensus between the majority of remainers and the majority of leavers lies.ThomasNashe said:
The deal May is discussing is not reasonable. She is basically agreeing to the permanent partition of the UK.ydoethur said:
All this UKIP talk is a red herring. The real problem causing gridlock isn't Brexit, it's the two main party leaders. They are essentially symbiotic - without the other, they'd be further behind their rivals than a child's scooter in a ten mile drag race against Lewis Hamilton's Mercedes.Jonathan said:UKIP if you want to, the lady ‘s not for kippers.
The next election may well be .
I understand that Remainers would want a soft (or no) Brexit. But there is frankly no excuse for people turning a blind eye to what May is doing, which is indeed the most serious constitutional outrage committed in a century or more.
It is almost like Remainers are more interested in stopping Brexit than supporting their own country....
Though I am not convinced that current EFTA members would want to share the EEA with a UK that was only passing through. In any case, that is not what is being proposed this week. Our opportunity to do that route is gone downstream, while the Tory Brexiteers arsed about.
The customs border in the Irish Sea is fine by me. Northern Ireland has been politically, socially and geographically semi-detached from the UK for all of its century of existence as an entity. Indeed NI (and perhaps Scotland too) remaining in the SM and CU long term while England does not, provides an interesting control arm for Brexit. If trend economic growth in these parts changes direction from rUK trend we may have some interesting results to adjudicate on whether Brexit was worthwhile.0 -
Across both ballots, only about one-third of the Tories consistently supported him. Although his vote only dipped slightly on the second ballot, that hid substantial churn as a large chunk deserted him for Major or Hurd and a few were so misguided as to back him in the belief he would win.JohnO said:And Heseltine had the explicit support of 41%, which rather proves my point. But that’s history (though some of us oldies remember it as yesterday).
Admittedly I think that's a better performance than Boris would put up. But most of his votes were because he wasn't Thatcher (who, ironically, won in 1975 largely because she wasn't Heath).
I have to go. Have a good day.0 -
Mr. Fire, do you think the parts of Scotland that voted to leave the UK should be operating under their own regulatory regime?
Should the parts of the UK that voted Labour last General Election be subject to the government of Jeremy Corbyn's Labour?0 -
Almost half of 2015 UKIP voters did indeed move to the Tories as the chart shows but they are certainly not all 'Tories on holiday' and indeed as the chart shows 13% of the 2015 UKIP voters who voted for other parties moved to Labour and to a lesser extent the LDs and Greens.
It would also be a mistake to say post Chequers and May's moves to compromise with the EU all the move to UKIP has been from the Tories, according to the latest YouGov while 6% of 2017 Tories have indeed moved to UKIP, 1% of 2017 LD voters have also switched to the purples.
May can also take some comfort that 4% of 2017 Labour voters and 5% of 2017 LD voters have switched to the Tories which has enabled the Tories to have a 4% lead over Labour even despite the loss of hardline Brexiteers to UKIP.
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/it0744dii4/TheTimes_181009_VI_Trackers_W.pdf0 -
The problem is exactly to do with the UK. We have a troublesome border with the Republic because of the history of how Ireland left the UK. The EU was a great solution because it allowed the border to be ignored by those UK citizens who would rather not be UK citizens. There are many advantages to EU membership and that is one of the big ones. We have voted to give that up. There is no way the most able of rhetoricians can spin that as the EU's fault, and you certainly can't.MarqueeMark said:
And let's remember why we are having to face the UK being divided. It's not down to any issue imposed by the UK leaving the EU club. It's down to the innate paranoia of the Eurocrats - that in three, five, ten years time, whenever we finally leave, other current members will look at the deal we got and think "You know, that will do for us too...."archer101au said:I am not talking about different forms of Brexit. I am talking about May agreeing to a backstop that will divide the UK. This is what is being proposed NOW, and I am asking Remainers whether they favour it or not. Simple question. I expect constant attempts to evade getting an answer, just as you did.
0 -
I suspect there is a substantial tranche of public opinion that adopts the view that it is wrong that a democratic state is unable to leave the EU in a harmless and equitable way. Our government may be incompetent, but that isn't the sole reason leaving is unnecessarily difficulties.
I'm not sure we should belong to an organisation we cannot leave.0 -
Said it’s ‘unlikely’ not made it clear. There’s a bit of wriggle room.ydoethur said:
Because we need the consent of the EU, and they have made it clear such consent would not be forthcoming until after an election had been held:Recidivist said:Exactly so. Leavers have everything they want. The Tories are now the Leave party. The referendum shows leaving is popular. But it's a big project and it needs a secure government to implement it. There's no shame in delaying the deed itself until after the next election and spending the time until then getting ready for it.
Why not?
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/22/article-50-extension-unlikely-without-shift-in-uk-politics-say-eu-officials0 -
It staggers me that some are nodding along to the idea of kowtowing to the regulatory annexation of the UK, with a customs border being imposed within our own country.
It's demented. It's indefensible.
We'll see what happens. Sadly, my prediction of capitulation from May seems to be coming true, as does the earlier (think I made it the day of the result) forecast that we'd end up with a terrible deal negotiated that was worse than either leaving or remaining, a deliberately atrocious capitulation that would serve Remain well should a second referendum be held.0 -
It is perfectly possible to leave, just not possible to leave and then to claim the benefits of remaining.philiph said:I suspect there is a substantial tranche of public opinion that adopts the view that it is wrong that a democratic state is unable to leave the EU in a harmless and equitable way. Our government may be incompetent, but that isn't the sole reason leaving is unnecessarily difficulties.
The EU is not at fault for the Brexiteers failure to understand!0 -
Rubbish. Ireland recognised as Irish anyone born on the Island of Ireland long before EEC membership.Recidivist said:
The problem is exactly to do with the UK. We have a troublesome border with the Republic because of the history of how Ireland left the UK. The EU was a great solution because it allowed the border to be ignored by those UK citizens who would rather not be UK citizens. There are many advantages to EU membership and that is one of the big ones. We have voted to give that up. There is no way the most able of rhetoricians can spin that as the EU's fault, and you certainly can't.MarqueeMark said:
And let's remember why we are having to face the UK being divided. It's not down to any issue imposed by the UK leaving the EU club. It's down to the innate paranoia of the Eurocrats - that in three, five, ten years time, whenever we finally leave, other current members will look at the deal we got and think "You know, that will do for us too...."archer101au said:I am not talking about different forms of Brexit. I am talking about May agreeing to a backstop that will divide the UK. This is what is being proposed NOW, and I am asking Remainers whether they favour it or not. Simple question. I expect constant attempts to evade getting an answer, just as you did.
0 -
We can leave. We are leaving. Most of the problems result from the speed we have chosen to do it at.philiph said:I suspect there is a substantial tranche of public opinion that adopts the view that it is wrong that a democratic state is unable to leave the EU in a harmless and equitable way. Our government may be incompetent, but that isn't the sole reason leaving is unnecessarily difficulties.
I'm not sure we should belong to an organisation we cannot leave.0 -
+1Foxy said:
It is perfectly possible to leave, just not possible to leave and then to claim the benefits of remaining.philiph said:I suspect there is a substantial tranche of public opinion that adopts the view that it is wrong that a democratic state is unable to leave the EU in a harmless and equitable way. Our government may be incompetent, but that isn't the sole reason leaving is unnecessarily difficulties.
The EU is not at fault for the Brexiteers failure to understand!0 -
Mr. Recidivst, whilst May can be (and is, rightly) blamed for not sorting out the UK position prior to commencing negotiations, the EU refused to negotiate until Article 50 was invoked, which set up the 2 year time limit.
The timetable is due to the Lisbon Treaty.
Edited extra bit: Mr. Recidivist, even.0 -
What's that got to do with anything?tlg86 said:
Rubbish. Ireland recognised as Irish anyone born on the Island of Ireland long before EEC membership.Recidivist said:
The problem is exactly to do with the UK. We have a troublesome border with the Republic because of the history of how Ireland left the UK. The EU was a great solution because it allowed the border to be ignored by those UK citizens who would rather not be UK citizens. There are many advantages to EU membership and that is one of the big ones. We have voted to give that up. There is no way the most able of rhetoricians can spin that as the EU's fault, and you certainly can't.MarqueeMark said:
And let's remember why we are having to face the UK being divided. It's not down to any issue imposed by the UK leaving the EU club. It's down to the innate paranoia of the Eurocrats - that in three, five, ten years time, whenever we finally leave, other current members will look at the deal we got and think "You know, that will do for us too...."archer101au said:I am not talking about different forms of Brexit. I am talking about May agreeing to a backstop that will divide the UK. This is what is being proposed NOW, and I am asking Remainers whether they favour it or not. Simple question. I expect constant attempts to evade getting an answer, just as you did.
0 -
Your failure to understand. The only people who want to claim the 'benefits' of membership are remainers. Leavers want CETA, which is nothing to do with EU membership.Foxy said:
It is perfectly possible to leave, just not possible to leave and then to claim the benefits of remaining.philiph said:I suspect there is a substantial tranche of public opinion that adopts the view that it is wrong that a democratic state is unable to leave the EU in a harmless and equitable way. Our government may be incompetent, but that isn't the sole reason leaving is unnecessarily difficulties.
The EU is not at fault for the Brexiteers failure to understand!0 -
At least Jonathan has answered the question.Jonathan said:
It’s not ideal. But it might be the best of all possible worlds. Candide.archer101au said:
Thank you for answering the question. I hope the other Remainers will also do so.Jonathan said:
Eh?
I want a solution that does not kill the economy or burns bridges with people we’re going to have to work with after all this is over.
Since Britain ultimately is responsible here, we asked for this divorce, morally we need to take on the majority of the difficult compromises
Since there are already different legal jurisdictions and tax regimes within the UK, I don’t see different regulations in NI as a red line.
It’s not ideal, but neither is Brexit.
Another question - if NI ended up in the SM and CU with GB outside (eg a customs border in the Irish Sea) do you consider that acceptable?
Any other Remainers out there who care to do so?0 -
Though a majority of NI Protestants voted Leave, if only Protestant majority Antrim and Down had voted and not the Catholic majority counties, NI would have voted Leavenot_on_fire said:
And lest we forget, NI voted to Remain by a clear marginstodge said:
So we come down to that grittiest of questions within any democratic system - does a minority have the right to frustrate the wishes of the majority?tlg86 said:
Do you think the people of Northern Ireland have the right to say no to that?
If the majority of the rest of the UK are happy with a deal which leaves Northern Ireland in a different regulatory environment to the rest of the UK and with a different relationship to the EU than the rest of the UK, do or should the people of Northern Ireland (who may themselves be deeply divided) have an inherent veto on that deal?
If it was Surrey or Birmingham, would the same apply?
As someone might have said, do the wishes of the many outweigh the wishes of the few?0 -
What toss. Nobody voted in 1975 on the basis that "this will sort out Ireland's border issue".Recidivist said:
The problem is exactly to do with the UK. We have a troublesome border with the Republic because of the history of how Ireland left the UK. The EU was a great solution because it allowed the border to be ignored by those UK citizens who would rather not be UK citizens. There are many advantages to EU membership and that is one of the big ones. We have voted to give that up. There is no way the most able of rhetoricians can spin that as the EU's fault, and you certainly can't.MarqueeMark said:
And let's remember why we are having to face the UK being divided. It's not down to any issue imposed by the UK leaving the EU club. It's down to the innate paranoia of the Eurocrats - that in three, five, ten years time, whenever we finally leave, other current members will look at the deal we got and think "You know, that will do for us too...."archer101au said:I am not talking about different forms of Brexit. I am talking about May agreeing to a backstop that will divide the UK. This is what is being proposed NOW, and I am asking Remainers whether they favour it or not. Simple question. I expect constant attempts to evade getting an answer, just as you did.
0 -
This is not even a difficult question. The whole point of belonging to a nation state is that you benefit from the rights and protection of the whole. So no, there is absolutely no circumstances in which you sacrifice the interests of a few of your citizens just to make life easier for the remainder. We have fought wars over this principle.stodge said:
So we come down to that grittiest of questions within any democratic system - does a minority have the right to frustrate the wishes of the majority?tlg86 said:
Do you think the people of Northern Ireland have the right to say no to that?
If the majority of the rest of the UK are happy with a deal which leaves Northern Ireland in a different regulatory environment to the rest of the UK and with a different relationship to the EU than the rest of the UK, do or should the people of Northern Ireland (who may themselves be deeply divided) have an inherent veto on that deal?
If it was Surrey or Birmingham, would the same apply?
As someone might have said, do the wishes of the many outweigh the wishes of the few?
It just shows how low May has sunk into the pit of appeasement that she is even considering this.0 -
I'm in favour of it as it gets Ireland one step closer to reunification.archer101au said:
I am not talking about different forms of Brexit. I am talking about May agreeing to a backstop that will divide the UK. This is what is being proposed NOW, and I am asking Remainers whether they favour it or not. Simple question. I expect constant attempts to evade getting an answer, just as you did.0 -
Morris_Dancer said:
It staggers me that some are nodding along to the idea of kowtowing to the regulatory annexation of the UK, with a customs border being imposed within our own country.
It's demented. It's indefensible.
We'll see what happens. Sadly, my prediction of capitulation from May seems to be coming true, as does the earlier (think I made it the day of the result) forecast that we'd end up with a terrible deal negotiated that was worse than either leaving or remaining, a deliberately atrocious capitulation that would serve Remain well should a second referendum be held.
Come come Mr Dancer. You are interested in history. Ulster is not just another bit of the UK. It is one where a very large minority wouldn't chose to remain in the UK. We simply can't treat it as if it was Basingstoke.0 -
Hey HYUFD, care to take up my challenge? No need for a poll.HYUFD said:
Though a majority of NI Protestants voted Leave, if only Protestant majority Antrim and Down had voted and not the Catholic majority counties, NI would have voted Leavenot_on_fire said:
And lest we forget, NI voted to Remain by a clear marginstodge said:
So we come down to that grittiest of questions within any democratic system - does a minority have the right to frustrate the wishes of the majority?tlg86 said:
Do you think the people of Northern Ireland have the right to say no to that?
If the majority of the rest of the UK are happy with a deal which leaves Northern Ireland in a different regulatory environment to the rest of the UK and with a different relationship to the EU than the rest of the UK, do or should the people of Northern Ireland (who may themselves be deeply divided) have an inherent veto on that deal?
If it was Surrey or Birmingham, would the same apply?
As someone might have said, do the wishes of the many outweigh the wishes of the few?
Do you support a permanent backstop where NI has (a) a regulatory barrier with GB or (b) has a regulatory and customs barrier with GB?0 -
Thanks for answering.Dura_Ace said:
I'm in favour of it as it gets Ireland one step closer to reunification.archer101au said:
I am not talking about different forms of Brexit. I am talking about May agreeing to a backstop that will divide the UK. This is what is being proposed NOW, and I am asking Remainers whether they favour it or not. Simple question. I expect constant attempts to evade getting an answer, just as you did.0 -
My position since the result was that Britain should have planned for and gone for hard Brexit, and then began FTA negotiations as a third country.archer101au said:
Your failure to understand. The only people who want to claim the 'benefits' of membership are remainers. Leavers want CETA, which is nothing to do with EU membership.Foxy said:
It is perfectly possible to leave, just not possible to leave and then to claim the benefits of remaining.philiph said:I suspect there is a substantial tranche of public opinion that adopts the view that it is wrong that a democratic state is unable to leave the EU in a harmless and equitable way. Our government may be incompetent, but that isn't the sole reason leaving is unnecessarily difficulties.
The EU is not at fault for the Brexiteers failure to understand!
That ship has long since sailed, as indeed has EEA/EFTA. There is simply not the time for these now.
The only possibilities remaining are:
1) Reversal of the Leave decision
2) No Deal Brexit in March
3) Implement the Withdrawal Agreement with Irish Backstop.
personally, I favour the first, but am not bothered by Irish Sea Customs border.0 -
The people of NI have the right to leave the Union. Until they decide to do so, they are subject to and have the rights of all the protections that go along with being part of the UK. It is demented for May to have categorically ruled out such a separation and now be trying to sneak it through.Recidivist said:Morris_Dancer said:It staggers me that some are nodding along to the idea of kowtowing to the regulatory annexation of the UK, with a customs border being imposed within our own country.
It's demented. It's indefensible.
We'll see what happens. Sadly, my prediction of capitulation from May seems to be coming true, as does the earlier (think I made it the day of the result) forecast that we'd end up with a terrible deal negotiated that was worse than either leaving or remaining, a deliberately atrocious capitulation that would serve Remain well should a second referendum be held.
Come come Mr Dancer. You are interested in history. Ulster is not just another bit of the UK. It is one where a very large minority wouldn't chose to remain in the UK. We simply can't treat it as if it was Basingstoke.0 -
Laughable that May started off saying "no deal is better than a bad deal".0
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If I was making a prediction (rather than what I want) I would say that if May fails to get her Deal through Parliament she will call a general election before Christmas and it will be a repeat of February 1974, the Tories will likely win most votes (quite probably most seats too) and like Heath then a majority in England and Cable will hold the balance of power much as Thorpe did after the February 1974 election.ydoethur said:
Across both ballots, only about one-third of the Tories consistently supported him. Although his vote only dipped slightly on the second ballot, that hid substantial churn as a large chunk deserted him for Major or Hurd and a few were so misguided as to back him in the belief he would win.JohnO said:And Heseltine had the explicit support of 41%, which rather proves my point. But that’s history (though some of us oldies remember it as yesterday).
Admittedly I think that's a better performance than Boris would put up. But most of his votes were because he wasn't Thatcher (who, ironically, won in 1975 largely because she wasn't Heath).
I have to go. Have a good day.
Talks between May and Cable will not progress as those with Heath and Thorpe did not then and Corbyn will end up PM of a minority government as Wilson did and Corbyn will then agree a Deal with the EU almost identical to the one May was proposing before we leave the EU next March.
May will then be toppled as Tory leader within a year and replaced by a Brexiteer, probably Boris, possibly Patel, Mogg or Cox much like Heath was toppled by Thatcher in early 19750 -
Again, thank you for answering the question directly.Foxy said:
My position since the result was that Britain should have planned for and gone for hard Brexit, and then began FTA negotiations as a third country.archer101au said:
Your failure to understand. The only people who want to claim the 'benefits' of membership are remainers. Leavers want CETA, which is nothing to do with EU membership.Foxy said:
It is perfectly possible to leave, just not possible to leave and then to claim the benefits of remaining.philiph said:I suspect there is a substantial tranche of public opinion that adopts the view that it is wrong that a democratic state is unable to leave the EU in a harmless and equitable way. Our government may be incompetent, but that isn't the sole reason leaving is unnecessarily difficulties.
The EU is not at fault for the Brexiteers failure to understand!
That ship has long since sailed, as indeed has EEA/EFTA. There is simply not the time for these now.
The only possibilities remaining are:
1) Reversal of the Leave decision
2) No Deal Brexit in March
3) Implement the Withdrawal Agreement with Irish Backstop.
personally, I favour the first, but am not bothered by Irish Sea Customs border.0 -
Mr. Recidivist, on trade: Northern Ireland does more with Great Britain than the Republic. On politics: a majority vote for unionist parties.
If they vote to join the Republic, that would sadden me but I'd accept it. Until then, they're part of the UK and forcing a customs barrier upon Northern Ireland, against their wishes, to satisfy the demands of a foreign power and kowtow to demands for regulatory annexation, is unacceptable.0 -
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I was beginning to think I was the only one here who thought this way!Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Recidivist, on trade: Northern Ireland does more with Great Britain than the Republic. On politics: a majority vote for unionist parties.
If they vote to join the Republic, that would sadden me but I'd accept it. Until then, they're part of the UK and forcing a customs barrier upon Northern Ireland, against their wishes, to satisfy the demands of a foreign power and kowtow to demands for regulatory annexation, is unacceptable.0 -
Provided the Tories negotiate Brexit in one piece (big "if") and they are up against either Corbyn or McDonnell in 2022 (another big "if") then I think they'll win.
They will probably go down to a big defeat in 2027, though, because I'd assume Labour would respond to a 4th defeat with some level of common sense, away from a hard Left position.0 -
I believe a Customs Union backstop should apply to the whole UKarcher101au said:
Hey HYUFD, care to take up my challenge? No need for a poll.HYUFD said:
Though a majority of NI Protestants voted Leave, if only Protestant majority Antrim and Down had voted and not the Catholic majority counties, NI would have voted Leavenot_on_fire said:
And lest we forget, NI voted to Remain by a clear marginstodge said:
So we come down to that grittiest of questions within any democratic system - does a minority have the right to frustrate the wishes of the majority?tlg86 said:
Do you think the people of Northern Ireland have the right to say no to that?
If the majority of the rest of the UK are happy with a deal which leaves Northern Ireland in a different regulatory environment to the rest of the UK and with a different relationship to the EU than the rest of the UK, do or should the people of Northern Ireland (who may themselves be deeply divided) have an inherent veto on that deal?
If it was Surrey or Birmingham, would the same apply?
As someone might have said, do the wishes of the many outweigh the wishes of the few?
Do you support a permanent backstop where NI has (a) a regulatory barrier with GB or (b) has a regulatory and customs barrier with GB?0 -
Mr. Royale, better a Blair landslide than a marginal Marxist victory.0
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Northern Ireland has always had special status, throughout its century of existence. Currenly there is no devolved government there to take a position on this, so it is up to the Westminster government to decide. Like the rest of us who didn't vote Tory, they just have to suck it up.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Recidivist, on trade: Northern Ireland does more with Great Britain than the Republic. On politics: a majority vote for unionist parties.
If they vote to join the Republic, that would sadden me but I'd accept it. Until then, they're part of the UK and forcing a customs barrier upon Northern Ireland, against their wishes, to satisfy the demands of a foreign power and kowtow to demands for regulatory annexation, is unacceptable.0 -
No Tory government since Lord Liverpool's before the Great Reform Act in 1832 has won a fifth successive term so that would be almost inevitableCasino_Royale said:Provided the Tories negotiate Brexit in one piece (big "if") and they are up against either Corbyn or McDonnell in 2022 (another big "if") then I think they'll win.
They will probably go down to a big defeat in 2027, though, because I'd assume Labour would respond to a 4th defeat with some level of common sense, away from a hard Left position.0 -
Then you want a hard border which will have to be policed.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Recidivist, on trade: Northern Ireland does more with Great Britain than the Republic. On politics: a majority vote for unionist parties.
If they vote to join the Republic, that would sadden me but I'd accept it. Until then, they're part of the UK and forcing a customs barrier upon Northern Ireland, against their wishes, to satisfy the demands of a foreign power and kowtow to demands for regulatory annexation, is unacceptable.
I would rather come to an arrangement that most people involved can live with.0
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