politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB hold the Cowdenbeath Holyrood by-election on a 12.5 per

RichardNabavi said:

This does look more like a good Labour result rather than a poor SNP result, if you see what I mean. The fact that Labour managed to get almost as many votes as in 2011, on a turnout reduced from 47% to 38%, suggests a good ground operation and a high level of motivation.

TCPoliticalBetting said:

A dissappointing result for us YES supporters. Next indicator will be the EC elections, last time was
MEP
2 Scottish National Party 29.1%
2 Labour 20.8%
1 Conservative 16.8%
1 Liberal Democrats 11.5%
0 Green Party 7.3%
0 UK Independence Party 5.2%

if the SNP can hold the top slot then, a YES vote maybe achieveable, but can they? The party in power usually suffers a drop but 2009 went against that trend.

The LD MEP seat looks a goner, but will it be taken by the Greens or a 3rd seat for the SNP?
A 2nd seat for the Conservatives looks a long shot.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Jessop, on Joe Saward's blog he seems to think Michael (or anyone currently at McLaren) is unlikely to get the job. The reasoning is that it could be announced right now, and hasn't been, therefore it's someone already working with a contract elsewhere (which would also rule out Brawn, alas).

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Mick_Pork said:

RichardNabavi said:

antifrank said:

On topic, one of the things we can learn from this result is that the SNP are pretty shit at expectations management. They made the same mistake when they hubristically claimed that they would take Glasgow City Council.

Indeed, and let us not forget this example (which proved highly profitable):
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/uk-world-news/salmond-targets-27-westminster-seats-1026507

Yesterday here on PB.

Stephen Dunn looks at the voters who’ll decide GE2015 – those who live in the marginals
And the Tories target seats are listed here > http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/conservative-targets/

How many of the 75 do you expect the Cameroons to target? Less than the 20 he needs to win? I somehow doubt it.

Mick_Pork said:

RichardNabavi said:

@Mick_Pork - I don't claim to be an expert on Scottish politics, but if I'm not much mistaken Cowdenbeath was in Gordon Brown's own backdoor in 2011 as well. What matters is the change from one election to another.

2011 was an SNP landslide but that seat still didn't go to the SNP which tells you all you need to know about the seat and the local factors at play. It's a by-election so there will clearly be strong local factors yet the SNP vote still held up to 2007 levels when they won at Holyrood. We have the Holyrood polling anyway so we don't need to base every prediction on one extraordinarily safe labour by-election seat.

SouthamObserver said:

JosiasJessop said:

SouthamObserver said:

david_herdson said:

felix said:

Millsy said:

UK pay rising in real terms, says coalition

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-25869001

Has anyone seen the numbers?

If so surely one would expect it to be welcomed on all sides. Labour complains it fails to take into account changes to benefits confirming them as the party of benefits and not the party of work.

Indeed. Arguing that the government should give money it doesn't have to people who don't need it is not going to go down well with those who would have to make up the difference.

Obviously, it is a Tory comfort blanket to pretend that those affected by changes to the tax credit regime are all scroungers and layabouts, but the vast majority who have been affected and are in work know the reality and have votes. As I say below, your party needs to be careful Mr Herdson.

You are the only person using the language of 'scroungers' and 'layabouts'.

I am a terrible person who wishes he could be better, but because of an innate lack of moral fibre and a general propensity to wickedness I never will be, I fear. It's why I could never be a Tory.

antifrank said:

Not all Labour supporters are yet convinced of inevitable victory:

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jan/24/all-eyes-ed-miliband-economic-plan-david-cameron-cost-of-living

"Of course they must flag up any deceit over the government's figures if they seem questionable. Already that is happening. Labour's shadow treasury minister Cathy Jamieson insists the cheery figures on pay have been massaged and draw attention away from matters such as cuts to tax credits and child benefit, both of which have impacted working families. She says that in fact real annual wages have fallen by £1,600 since 2010 and cites figures from the Institute for Fiscal Studies indicating that "families are on average £891 worse off as a result of tax and benefit changes since 2010".

That is all well and good. But over and above any focus on the coalition's failings, Labour must have a coherent plan about how they will do better. The lack of that narrative is probably why Labour have so far failed to pull away in the polls and is now seeing its poll lead tighten."

Charles said:

SouthamObserver said:

JosiasJessop said:

SouthamObserver said:

david_herdson said:

felix said:

Millsy said:

UK pay rising in real terms, says coalition

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-25869001

Has anyone seen the numbers?

If so surely one would expect it to be welcomed on all sides. Labour complains it fails to take into account changes to benefits confirming them as the party of benefits and not the party of work.

Indeed. Arguing that the government should give money it doesn't have to people who don't need it is not going to go down well with those who would have to make up the difference.

Obviously, it is a Tory comfort blanket to pretend that those affected by changes to the tax credit regime are all scroungers and layabouts, but the vast majority who have been affected and are in work know the reality and have votes. As I say below, your party needs to be careful Mr Herdson.

You are the only person using the language of 'scroungers' and 'layabouts'.

I am a terrible person who wishes he could be better, but because of an innate lack of moral fibre and a general propensity to wickedness I never will be, I fear. It's why I could never be a Tory.

Interesting.

So because you are 'nasty, brutish, and short' you need to rely on strict rule by a powerful state who will take your money and reallocate it as various politicians see fit. Surely relying on menaces from a third party is no moral progression at all?

While I, too, am a terrible person who wishes he could be better, but because of an innate lack of moral fibre and a general propensity to wickness I fear that I never will be. And yet the struggle to be a better person is a virtue in itself, even if ultimately unsuccessful.

That's what makes me a Tory (albeit a fairly Whiggish Tory)

taffys said:

''We have the Holyrood polling anyway so we don't need to base every prediction on one extraordinarily safe labour by-election seat.''

Mick: are you saying that if the odds on a 'yes' get bigger as a result of this unrepresentative result, its a chance to get on?

SouthamObserver said:

Charles said:

SouthamObserver said:

JosiasJessop said:

SouthamObserver said:

david_herdson said:

felix said:

Millsy said:

UK pay rising in real terms, says coalition

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-25869001

Has anyone seen the numbers?

If so surely one would expect it to be welcomed on all sides. Labour complains it fails to take into account changes to benefits confirming them as the party of benefits and not the party of work.

Indeed. Arguing that the government should give money it doesn't have to people who don't need it is not going to go down well with those who would have to make up the difference.

Obviously, it is a Tory comfort blanket to pretend that those affected by changes to the tax credit regime are all scroungers and layabouts, but the vast majority who have been affected and are in work know the reality and have votes. As I say below, your party needs to be careful Mr Herdson.

You are the only person using the language of 'scroungers' and 'layabouts'.

I am a terrible person who wishes he could be better, but because of an innate lack of moral fibre and a general propensity to wickedness I never will be, I fear. It's why I could never be a Tory.

Interesting.

So because you are 'nasty, brutish, and short' you need to rely on strict rule by a powerful state who will take your money and reallocate it as various politicians see fit. Surely relying on menaces from a third party is no moral progression at all?

While I, too, am a terrible person who wishes he could be better, but because of an innate lack of moral fibre and a general propensity to wickness I fear that I never will be. And yet the struggle to be a better person is a virtue in itself, even if ultimately unsuccessful.

That's what makes me a Tory (albeit a fairly Whiggish Tory)

Isn't it a wonderful world, full of variety and fun??!! Different people see the same thing in different ways. Always have, always will. I believe that a level of wealth redistribution is in the best interests of me and my family, as well as those who have not been as lucky as we have been. In my view, the state is best placed to oversee this. So, yes, I do believe in its potential to be a powerful, positive, enabling force. We have not got it right in this country over a sustained period yet, but I look elsewhere and I know that it can be done.

SouthamObserver said:

Charles said:

SouthamObserver said:

I am a terrible person who wishes he could be better, but because of an innate lack of moral fibre and a general propensity to wickedness I never will be, I fear. It's why I could never be a Tory.

Interesting.

So because you are 'nasty, brutish, and short' you need to rely on strict rule by a powerful state who will take your money and reallocate it as various politicians see fit. Surely relying on menaces from a third party is no moral progression at all?

While I, too, am a terrible person who wishes he could be better, but because of an innate lack of moral fibre and a general propensity to wickness I fear that I never will be. And yet the struggle to be a better person is a virtue in itself, even if ultimately unsuccessful.

That's what makes me a Tory (albeit a fairly Whiggish Tory)

Isn't it a wonderful world, full of variety and fun??!! Different people see the same thing in different ways. Always have, always will. I believe that a level of wealth redistribution is in the best interests of me and my family, as well as those who have not been as lucky as we have been. In my view, the state is best placed to oversee this. So, yes, I do believe in its potential to be a powerful, positive, enabling force. We have not got it right in this country over a sustained period yet, but I look elsewhere and I know that it can be done.

dr_spyn said:

PODCWAS.

Tweet from Sun Political Editor.

Oops -David Cameron hails Hornby in his 'reshoring' speech, but they've just issued another stonker of a profit warning

Jonathan said:

Anyone know offhand the longest UK constituency name?

Charles said:

SouthamObserver said:

Charles said:

SouthamObserver said:

I am a terrible person who wishes he could be better, but because of an innate lack of moral fibre and a general propensity to wickedness I never will be, I fear. It's why I could never be a Tory.

Interesting.

So because you are 'nasty, brutish, and short' you need to rely on strict rule by a powerful state who will take your money and reallocate it as various politicians see fit. Surely relying on menaces from a third party is no moral progression at all?

While I, too, am a terrible person who wishes he could be better, but because of an innate lack of moral fibre and a general propensity to wickness I fear that I never will be. And yet the struggle to be a better person is a virtue in itself, even if ultimately unsuccessful.

That's what makes me a Tory (albeit a fairly Whiggish Tory)

Isn't it a wonderful world, full of variety and fun??!! Different people see the same thing in different ways. Always have, always will. I believe that a level of wealth redistribution is in the best interests of me and my family, as well as those who have not been as lucky as we have been. In my view, the state is best placed to oversee this. So, yes, I do believe in its potential to be a powerful, positive, enabling force. We have not got it right in this country over a sustained period yet, but I look elsewhere and I know that it can be done.

Whereas we take the position that since a business can only flourish in a stable society it's important to ensure that there is a positive contribution made to ensuring that all stakeholders and society as a whole gets to benefit from the success of the company.

But that this is better done by individuals and companies rather than expensively intermediated and sub-optimally redistributed by an over centralised state

TGOHF said:

MarkSenior said:

Today's Populus Lab 40 Con 32 LD 11 UKIP 9 Others 8

Decent for the LDs given the weeks events - definitely not cutting through outside the village.

Jonathan said:

Anyone know offhand the longest UK constituency name?

SouthamObserver said:

Charles said:

Whereas we take the position that since a business can only flourish in a stable society it's important to ensure that there is a positive contribution made to ensuring that all stakeholders and society as a whole gets to benefit from the success of the company.

But that this is better done by individuals and companies rather than expensively intermediated and sub-optimally redistributed by an over centralised state

If companies and individuals did do it in practice I would agree with that. Unfortunately, they don't. We would not have guaranteed old age pensions, unemployment benefit, free at the point of access healthcare, a universal education system etc without the state. How do I know that? Because we didn't until the state made it happen.

dr_spyn said:

@Sunil_Prasannan

Worst headline IMHO from The Times - Hornby Profit Warning Is The Pits.

Lennon said:

Lennon said:

Jonathan said:

Anyone know offhand the longest UK constituency name?

In Scotland (and UK) - Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch East
In Wales - Carmarthen West & Pembrokeshire South
In England - Middlesbrough South & Cleveland East
In Norn Irn - Fermanagh & South Tyrone

Weirdly, or just random I guess - LD's are disproportionately represented amongst 'Short' Constituency names - holding 7 out of the 50 seats which are 6 letters or less (Bath, Lewes, Wells, Yeovil, Torbay, Redcar, Gordon). This is a ratio of 14% versus the 9% overall.

Mick_Pork said:

Patrick said:

MickPork

You seem to be a very happy man - or easily amused. Does everything everyone else says really generate 'tears of laughter'? And is everything anyone you don't like does 'comically inept'? Or are you actually a robot surreptitiously exposing the rest of us to some kind of Turing test?

I'm more than content to see the PB tory ignorance of polling and what a result actually means on here thanks. It is repeated for westminster after all.

Care to tell me what the tories have to cheer about with this?

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/9/96/UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png

If you don't know what the purple kipper line means for Cammie by now then you have no chance of understanding the EU elections or the tory panic that will precede and follow it.

Scrapheap_as_was said:

I see the coalition assault on Ed M's last economic 'Keep' - that is the cost of living crisis is now underway - this is a key battle and will be messy and I see Len and Chukka are manning the barricades but if they breach Ed's defence sufficiently, where does he retreat to?

Anorak said:

Alanbrooke said:

taffys said:

I love the Guardian report on the Argentina Crisis linked earlier.

Without a trace of irony it lists the reasons for the latest economic catastrophe perpetrated by the socialist government there as increased business regulation, nationalisation of some companies and social programmes.

In other words, Ed Miliband's manifesto.

I think the Guardian is having a bit of an off day. I've been looking at their listing of the 85 people who are as rich as half the world and instead of finding it's all greedy westerners I reckon about half the people on that list are from the developing world.

http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/interactive/2014/jan/24/who-are-the-worlds-richest-85

Plus no.2 is Bill Gates, philanthropist extraordinaire, and no.4 is Warren Buffett, who has pledged almost all his fortune to the Bill and Melinda Gates foundation. So no, not a good day.

TGOHF said:

Mick_Pork said:

TGOHF said:

MarkSenior said:

Today's Populus Lab 40 Con 32 LD 11 UKIP 9 Others 8

Decent for the LDs given the weeks events - definitely not cutting through outside the village.

Likely so but the Rennard/Hancock debacle is severely damaging to the lib dems for internal and long lasting party reasons, not splash headlines or sudden VI shifts.

Like plebgate did for the Cons ?

taffys said:

SO

Is that the same Bill Gates who recently said there will be no poor countries at all by 2030 under the current evil capitalist system??

SouthamObserver said:

taffys said:

SO

Is that the same Bill Gates who recently said there will be no poor countries at all by 2030 under the current evil capitalist system??

Who says capitalism is evil? I certainly don't; neither does the Guardian.

RichardNabavi said:

SouthamObserver said:

That said, without a redistributive state I would not be where I am today and many millions of others would not be either.

Hmm, I'm not sure that really stands up. Social mobility in the US, with a smaller and less crudely redistributive state than the UK, has not been worse, in fact has probably been better, than here. And small government (very low taxes and very low state spending) doesn't seem to have stopped the people of Singapore benefitting from improved health, wealth and education.

Theuniondivvie said:

Shome mishtake shirly?

'No plans for naval yard KO after indy

A shipbuilding boss has insisted he has no proposals to shift production out of Scottish yards if voters back independence. BAE Systems chief Ian King said the firm "had no contingency plans" to alter working patterns at Govan and Scotsoun if a split goes ahead. And he warned that the Ministry of Defence will have to "deal with" a Yes referendum victory.'

http://tinyurl.com/pndhr3x

Peter Curran ‏@moridura 1h

Alistair Carmichael, Scottish(?) Sec. wants to move Scottish shipyard work to England, describing Portsmouth as a “well placed” contender.

Morris_Dancer said:

New McLaren pics on Twitter. Consensus seems to be it's either like a new model cyberman, or has been inspired by a lady with an, er, exotic piece of face apparel.

Charles said:

Mick_Pork said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Shome mishtake shirly?

'No plans for naval yard KO after indy

A shipbuilding boss has insisted he has no proposals to shift production out of Scottish yards if voters back independence. BAE Systems chief Ian King said the firm "had no contingency plans" to alter working patterns at Govan and Scotsoun if a split goes ahead. And he warned that the Ministry of Defence will have to "deal with" a Yes referendum victory.'

http://tinyurl.com/pndhr3x

Priceless.

Peter Curran ‏@moridura 1h

Alistair Carmichael, Scottish(?) Sec. wants to move Scottish shipyard work to England, describing Portsmouth as a “well placed” contender.

The incompetent lib dem buffoon Carmichael will really enjoy that next time he has to face anyone in debate. Assuming he ever will considering the lib dem 'leadership bruiser' was slaughtered the last time by Nicola Sturgeon.

TGOHF said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

no comment

Guido Fawkes‏@GuidoFawkes3m
STAY TUNED: Only one quarter of funds raised by Gordon "I don't personally benefit" Brown goes to charity. #OpenNews

Thats a lot more than other fake charities like Oxfam and Greenpeace.

Mick_Pork said:

Charles said:

Mick_Pork said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Shome mishtake shirly?

'No plans for naval yard KO after indy

A shipbuilding boss has insisted he has no proposals to shift production out of Scottish yards if voters back independence. BAE Systems chief Ian King said the firm "had no contingency plans" to alter working patterns at Govan and Scotsoun if a split goes ahead. And he warned that the Ministry of Defence will have to "deal with" a Yes referendum victory.'

http://tinyurl.com/pndhr3x

Priceless.

Peter Curran ‏@moridura 1h

Alistair Carmichael, Scottish(?) Sec. wants to move Scottish shipyard work to England, describing Portsmouth as a “well placed” contender.

The incompetent lib dem buffoon Carmichael will really enjoy that next time he has to face anyone in debate. Assuming he ever will considering the lib dem 'leadership bruiser' was slaughtered the last time by Nicola Sturgeon.

Of course BAe has no contingency plans - why would they.

That said, *if* the rUK MoD decides to spend more of its budget at home post independence then BAe will redeploy its resources sharpish. Until A and B are known events then there is no point in wasting time and effort planning. That said, if Scotland chooses independence, I am sure that BAe would develop contingency plans for what to do if the MoD emphasises domestic spending post partition PDQ.

Scrapheap_as_was said:

TGOHF said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

no comment

Guido Fawkes‏@GuidoFawkes3m
STAY TUNED: Only one quarter of funds raised by Gordon "I don't personally benefit" Brown goes to charity. #OpenNews

Thats a lot more than other fake charities like Oxfam and Greenpeace.

It's a private company though - I imagine Guido only need to splash out a fiver or similar and you can see the accounts at company house??? Company number is 07362179

Mick_Pork said:

Like I said, trying to keep this dud of a scarestory going is most instructive as to the PB tory mindset. Or to put it even more succinctly, the PB tories are always wrong, the PB tories never learn.