politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The end of the court of Sessions?

System · October 2018

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The end of the court of Sessions?

Paddy Power have a market up which is one of my favourite types of market, will X be in their job or not by a certain.

Read the full story here

Ishmael_Z · October 2018

1

kle4 · October 2018

Was this just written so you could have that title?

TheScreamingEagles · October 2018

kle4 said:
Was this just written so you could have that title?

Officially no.

My thread writing approach is to follow this process

1) Have a punt, write a thread about it

2) Have a pun, write a thread about it

Recidivist · October 2018

?

https://goo.gl/images/gkVER7

Recidivist · October 2018

?

HarryHayfield · October 2018

I do not believe that you can make the statement "I’m expecting the Democrats to take the House in November" because the Democrat lead in the congressional generic polling is falling fast. Three weeks ago they had an average lead of 8% using the data from Real Clear Politics, today it is down to 7.2% and that rate they will lead by 5% on election day. According to a forecaster I have a 7.2% Dem lead equals a GOP majority in the House of 13, so, no, the Democrats will NOT take the House in November.

kle4 · October 2018

HarryHayfield said:
I do not believe that you can make the statement "I’m expecting the Democrats to take the House in November" because the Democrat lead in the congressional generic polling is falling fast. Three weeks ago they had an average lead of 8% using the data from Real Clear Politics, today it is down to 7.2% and that rate they will lead by 5% on election day. According to a forecaster I have a 7.2% Dem lead equals a GOP majority in the House of 13, so, no, the Democrats will NOT take the House in November.

He can still expect it, even if he is wrong in that expectation.

Recidivist · October 2018

HarryHayfield said:
I do not believe that you can make the statement "I’m expecting the Democrats to take the House in November" because the Democrat lead in the congressional generic polling is falling fast. Three weeks ago they had an average lead of 8% using the data from Real Clear Politics, today it is down to 7.2% and that rate they will lead by 5% on election day. According to a forecaster I have a 7.2% Dem lead equals a GOP majority in the House of 13, so, no, the Democrats will NOT take the House in November.

The polling is so accurate that a change of 0.8% can be relied on?

williamglenn · October 2018

https://twitter.com/bernardjenkin/status/1048955674896551938

Theuniondivvie · October 2018

HarryHayfield said:
I do not believe that you can make the statement "I’m expecting the Democrats to take the House in November" because the Democrat lead in the congressional generic polling is falling fast. Three weeks ago they had an average lead of 8% using the data from Real Clear Politics, today it is down to 7.2% and that rate they will lead by 5% on election day. According to a forecaster I have a 7.2% Dem lead equals a GOP majority in the House of 13, so, no, the Democrats will NOT take the House in November.

Will the rate of decline stay steady, or indeed in one direction? It's not like there's nothing been happening in US politics & public life..

AndyJS · October 2018

"Germany, Civey poll:

CDU/CSU-EPP: 26% (-1)
AfD-EFDD: 17%
GRÜNE-G/EFA: 17% (+1)
SPD-S&D: 16% (-1)
LINKE-LEFT: 10%
FDP-ALDE: 9%

Field work: 30/09/18 – 7/10/18
Sample size: 11,895"

kle4 · October 2018

williamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/bernardjenkin/status/1048955674896551938

Oh yeah, because they totally were thinking of supporting a bad deal if the PM were not pitching for Labour MPs to back it.

kle4 · October 2018

AndyJS said:
"Germany, Civey poll:

CDU/CSU-EPP: 26% (-1)
AfD-EFDD: 17%
GRÜNE-G/EFA: 17% (+1)
SPD-S&D: 16% (-1)
LINKE-LEFT: 10%
FDP-ALDE: 9%

Field work: 30/09/18 – 7/10/18
Sample size: 11,895"

Not that it looks like a new election would help them much, but is there a point where the SPD consider that it really is not worth thing staying as they are if it means total destruction for them?

AndyJS · October 2018

kle4 said:

AndyJS said:
"Germany, Civey poll:

CDU/CSU-EPP: 26% (-1)
AfD-EFDD: 17%
GRÜNE-G/EFA: 17% (+1)
SPD-S&D: 16% (-1)
LINKE-LEFT: 10%
FDP-ALDE: 9%

Field work: 30/09/18 – 7/10/18
Sample size: 11,895"
Not that it looks like a new election would help them much, but is there a point where the SPD consider that it really is not worth thing staying as they are if it means total destruction for them?

One would have thought the time for pulling out is about now. I'm not sure what their long-term strategy is.

Pulpstar · October 2018

williamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/bernardjenkin/status/1048955674896551938

@Shippersunbound Having running back troubles just like me lol

rcs1000 · October 2018

HarryHayfield said:
I do not believe that you can make the statement "I’m expecting the Democrats to take the House in November" because the Democrat lead in the congressional generic polling is falling fast. Three weeks ago they had an average lead of 8% using the data from Real Clear Politics, today it is down to 7.2% and that rate they will lead by 5% on election day. According to a forecaster I have a 7.2% Dem lead equals a GOP majority in the House of 13, so, no, the Democrats will NOT take the House in November.

Ummm: you know that last week's move in the polls has no impact on this week's move. Outside of primaries, there is no such think as "momentum". So, while the congressional lead might move 2% towards the Republicans in the next four weeks, it is equally (statistically) likely to move the other way.

I think a better argument is that the Kavanaugh hearings have fired up the Republican base, and made them much more likely to turn out.

For the record 538 makes it a 75% chance the Dems take the House (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/), which sounds about right given how gerrymandered it is.

CarlottaVance · October 2018

If you can't win a referendum....

https://twitter.com/BBCPhilipSim/status/1048961102611144705

alex. · October 2018

How does this work then?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/10/07/john-mcdonnell-labour-considering-offering-four-day-week-voters/

Nigelb · October 2018

rcs1000 said:

HarryHayfield said:
I do not believe that you can make the statement "I’m expecting the Democrats to take the House in November" because the Democrat lead in the congressional generic polling is falling fast. Three weeks ago they had an average lead of 8% using the data from Real Clear Politics, today it is down to 7.2% and that rate they will lead by 5% on election day. According to a forecaster I have a 7.2% Dem lead equals a GOP majority in the House of 13, so, no, the Democrats will NOT take the House in November.
Ummm: you know that last week's move in the polls has no impact on this week's move. Outside of primaries, there is no such think as "momentum". So, while the congressional lead might move 2% towards the Republicans in the next four weeks, it is equally (statistically) likely to move the other way.

I think a better argument is that the Kavanaugh hearings have fired up the Republican base, and made them much more likely to turn out.

For the record 538 makes it a 75% chance the Dems take the House (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/), which sounds about right given how gerrymandered it is.

I think it too early to conclude one way or the other for now; it will become clear soon.

What’s pretty certain is that the faux bipartisanship, where the Republicans bank their gains and then say ‘let’s all play by the rules’, is dead.

As is respect for the Supreme Court as an independent institution.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2018/10/supreme-court-loses-its-special-status/572416/

The_Apocalypse · October 2018

Nigelb said:

rcs1000 said:

HarryHayfield said:
I do not believe that you can make the statement "I’m expecting the Democrats to take the House in November" because the Democrat lead in the congressional generic polling is falling fast. Three weeks ago they had an average lead of 8% using the data from Real Clear Politics, today it is down to 7.2% and that rate they will lead by 5% on election day. According to a forecaster I have a 7.2% Dem lead equals a GOP majority in the House of 13, so, no, the Democrats will NOT take the House in November.
Ummm: you know that last week's move in the polls has no impact on this week's move. Outside of primaries, there is no such think as "momentum". So, while the congressional lead might move 2% towards the Republicans in the next four weeks, it is equally (statistically) likely to move the other way.

I think a better argument is that the Kavanaugh hearings have fired up the Republican base, and made them much more likely to turn out.

For the record 538 makes it a 75% chance the Dems take the House (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/), which sounds about right given how gerrymandered it is.
I think it too early to conclude one way or the other for now; it will become clear soon.

What’s pretty certain is that the faux bipartisanship, where the Republicans bank their gains and then say ‘let’s all play by the rules’, is dead.

As is respect for the Supreme Court as an independent institution.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2018/10/supreme-court-loses-its-special-status/572416/

This whole saga has highlighted the flaws of the US system. A country with a healthy democracy is not one in which the judiciary is tarnished by party politics. And their court now has two justices who have faced allegations of sexual harassment and sexual assault on the bench. What a mess.

Nigelb · October 2018

More disturbing WTF stories:

Turkey says journalist was murdered in Saudi consulate
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45775819

'Limousine crash' leaves twenty dead in New York State
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-45778366

Quincel · October 2018

Far be it from me to try and predict anything Donald Trump will do, but he's been moaning about Sessions for months. I'm not convinced the value is in him firing him in the next 3 months, as opposed to 3 months after or 3 years after that.

The_Taxman · October 2018

Quincel said:
Far be it from me to try and predict anything Donald Trump will do, but he's been moaning about Sessions for months. I'm not convinced the value is in him firing him in the next 3 months, as opposed to 3 months after or 3 years after that.

If the GOP do badly in the mid terms I would expect Trump to fire him to move the news agenda on to something where Trump is in control again.

HYUFD · October 2018

HarryHayfield said:
I do not believe that you can make the statement "I’m expecting the Democrats to take the House in November" because the Democrat lead in the congressional generic polling is falling fast. Three weeks ago they had an average lead of 8% using the data from Real Clear Politics, today it is down to 7.2% and that rate they will lead by 5% on election day. According to a forecaster I have a 7.2% Dem lead equals a GOP majority in the House of 13, so, no, the Democrats will NOT take the House in November.

The YouGov model is far better than any hypothetical forecast of national percentage lead which takes no account of swing districts, on that model the Democrats will gain almost 30 seats from the 195 they hold currently. Indeed even with an estimated 7.3% lead the YouGov model taken in swing districts has the Democrats taking a majority in the House 222 to 213 for the Republicans.

https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2018/08/19/cbs-news-yougov-house-model-democrats-222-republic

The question is more whether the GOP can keep the Senate now, especially after the Senate confirmed Kavanaugh which may drive up female Democratic turnout, than whether the Dems will take the House.

alex. · October 2018

The_Taxman said:

Quincel said:
Far be it from me to try and predict anything Donald Trump will do, but he's been moaning about Sessions for months. I'm not convinced the value is in him firing him in the next 3 months, as opposed to 3 months after or 3 years after that.
If the GOP do badly in the mid terms I would expect Trump to fire him to move the news agenda on to something where Trump is in control again.

Depends how badly. If they lost the Senate then a Democrat majority could block any replacement nominee.

DoubleCarpet · October 2018

Brazil Presidential 1st round

Evening all and trust you're all well!

From CNBC:

"Polls open at 8 a.m. (1100 GMT) and close at 5 p.m. in all but the far western portions of Brazil. Exit polls should be broadcast at 7 p.m. and results will start flowing shortly after that because Brazil uses an electronic voting system.

The 147 million voters will choose the president, all 513 members of the lower house of Congress, two-thirds of the 81-member Senate plus governors and lawmakers in all 27 states."

TV:

https://www.redetv.uol.com.br/aovivo/

Official results:

http://divulga.tse.jus.br/index.html

Betfair:

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.143383495

The second round (likely Bolsonaro/Haddad) would be on 28th Oct if no-one clears 50%.

What are people betting on at the moment? I'm on Bolsonaro, Higgins in Ireland, and Cruz to win Texas, would be interested to know what some of the big punters are currently on.

Thanks and best wishes to all,

DC

Cyclefree · October 2018

VM for @NickPalmer, if he’s around.

Morris_Dancer · October 2018

Mr. Carpet, cheers for that. Not my area, but heard whispers that a second place candidate might benefit from others rallying to him in order to oppose the 'populist' chap.

DoubleCarpet · October 2018

I think it will be 53/54 to Bolsonaro in the 2nd rd fwiw, one poll even has him on 50% for the first round.

Theuniondivvie · October 2018

CarlottaVance said:
If you can't win a referendum....

https://twitter.com/BBCPhilipSim/status/1048961102611144705

Fear not, the Yoons are on to it.

https://twitter.com/JohnnyDundee/status/1048981985388052480

Nemtynakht · October 2018

alex. said:
How does this work then?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/10/07/john-mcdonnell-labour-considering-offering-four-day-week-voters/

This is the stupidest thing I have heard in a long time. Not sure how you legislate for this - you can work 4 day week on 4/5ths salary. And the idea that AI and robots are benefitting those ‘at the top’ is laughable.

Alistair · October 2018

Nigelb said:
More disturbing WTF stories:

Turkey says journalist was murdered in Saudi consulate
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45775819

'Limousine crash' leaves twenty dead in New York State
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-45778366

The journalist murdered at the Saudi embassy has Saudi dissidents absolutely shitting themselves. People are moving house and disappearing off the grid.

Morris_Dancer · October 2018

Mr. Alistair, it does seem in line with the recent approach of cracking down on political dissent whilst broadening social freedoms (women driving, opening cinemas, etc).

TheWhiteRabbit · October 2018

DoubleCarpet said:
I think it will be 53/54 to Bolsonaro in the 2nd rd fwiw, one poll even has him on 50% for the first round.

Across 450,000 polling stations - an interesting one for sure.

As per my previous posts, I am on Haddad at about 2/1.

I am also on Labor in Wentworth.

Both would be far behind o the first round but with plenty of room to grow.

Quincel · October 2018

DoubleCarpet said:
Brazil Presidential 1st round

Evening all and trust you're all well!

From CNBC:

"Polls open at 8 a.m. (1100 GMT) and close at 5 p.m. in all but the far western portions of Brazil. Exit polls should be broadcast at 7 p.m. and results will start flowing shortly after that because Brazil uses an electronic voting system.

The 147 million voters will choose the president, all 513 members of the lower house of Congress, two-thirds of the 81-member Senate plus governors and lawmakers in all 27 states."

TV:

https://www.redetv.uol.com.br/aovivo/

Official results:

http://divulga.tse.jus.br/index.html

Betfair:

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.143383495

The second round (likely Bolsonaro/Haddad) would be on 28th Oct if no-one clears 50%.

What are people betting on at the moment? I'm on Bolsonaro, Higgins in Ireland, and Cruz to win Texas, would be interested to know what some of the big punters are currently on.

Thanks and best wishes to all,

DC

Not sure if I count as a big punter but as a regular punter at any stakes I've laid Bolsonaro for a bit and am watching the first round vote share closely to consider adding to that since I suspect his odds will fall even if he is in the low/mid 30s (which would potentially indicate a difficult road to 50%).

Also on Cruz to hold Texas. He could lose, which is quite something, but the odds have gotten ahead of the probabilities.

TheWhiteRabbit · October 2018

Morris_Dancer said:
Mr. Carpet, cheers for that. Not my area, but heard whispers that a second place candidate might benefit from others rallying to him in order to oppose the 'populist' chap.

Assuming there is a second round, it will be a lot closer than the first... the question is whether the "come back" Is enough (probably not, depends on the odds!!)

DoubleCarpet · October 2018

Thanks for the updates both - always interesting to know what people are betting on.

matt · October 2018

Nemtynakht said:

alex. said:
How does this work then?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/10/07/john-mcdonnell-labour-considering-offering-four-day-week-voters/
This is the stupidest thing I have heard in a long time. Not sure how you legislate for this - you can work 4 day week on 4/5ths salary. And the idea that AI and robots are benefitting those ‘at the top’ is laughable.

It’s a obvious device to force more state control. It’s legislated, it doesn’t work (cba to list the immediate reasons but suffice to say that unlike the 1800s we do not bestride the world economy and have an informal empire to back it up), the failure is a result of corporates and the rich. Therefore more control of corporates is required.

I’ve no doubt that they can find some economists to back it, in the same way that Brexit enthusasists see Minford as some sort of sage.

It’s a mechanism to generate hate and envy.

Foxy · October 2018

Alistair said:

Nigelb said:
More disturbing WTF stories:

Turkey says journalist was murdered in Saudi consulate
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45775819

'Limousine crash' leaves twenty dead in New York State
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-45778366
The journalist murdered at the Saudi embassy has Saudi dissidents absolutely shitting themselves. People are moving house and disappearing off the grid.

Will our government stop arms sales to the Saudis over this, even if they will not for the Yemen war crimes?

Theuniondivvie · October 2018

Foxy said:

Alistair said:

Nigelb said:
More disturbing WTF stories:

Turkey says journalist was murdered in Saudi consulate
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45775819

'Limousine crash' leaves twenty dead in New York State
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-45778366
The journalist murdered at the Saudi embassy has Saudi dissidents absolutely shitting themselves. People are moving house and disappearing off the grid.
Will our government stop arms sales to the Saudis over this, even if they will not for the Yemen war crimes?

One of the biggest qtwtain this year so far.

kle4 · October 2018

Foxy said:

Alistair said:

Nigelb said:
More disturbing WTF stories:

Turkey says journalist was murdered in Saudi consulate
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45775819

'Limousine crash' leaves twenty dead in New York State
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-45778366
The journalist murdered at the Saudi embassy has Saudi dissidents absolutely shitting themselves. People are moving house and disappearing off the grid.
Will our government stop arms sales to the Saudis over this, even if they will not for the Yemen war crimes?

That's a lot of money.

The_Taxman · October 2018

Foxy said:

Alistair said:

Nigelb said:
More disturbing WTF stories:

Turkey says journalist was murdered in Saudi consulate
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45775819

'Limousine crash' leaves twenty dead in New York State
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-45778366
The journalist murdered at the Saudi embassy has Saudi dissidents absolutely shitting themselves. People are moving house and disappearing off the grid.
Will our government stop arms sales to the Saudis over this, even if they will not for the Yemen war crimes?

No.

Stereotomy · October 2018

HYUFD said:

HarryHayfield said:
I do not believe that you can make the statement "I’m expecting the Democrats to take the House in November" because the Democrat lead in the congressional generic polling is falling fast. Three weeks ago they had an average lead of 8% using the data from Real Clear Politics, today it is down to 7.2% and that rate they will lead by 5% on election day. According to a forecaster I have a 7.2% Dem lead equals a GOP majority in the House of 13, so, no, the Democrats will NOT take the House in November.
The YouGov model is far better than any hypothetical forecast of national percentage lead which takes no account of swing districts, on that model the Democrats will gain almost 30 seats from the 195 they hold currently. Indeed even with an estimated 7.3% lead the YouGov model taken in swing districts has the Democrats taking a majority in the House 222 to 213 for the Republicans.

https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2018/08/19/cbs-news-yougov-house-model-democrats-222-republic

The question is more whether the GOP can keep the Senate now, especially after the Senate confirmed Kavanaugh which may drive up female Democratic turnout, than whether the Dems will take the House.

What odds do you put on Dems taking a) the House, b) the Senate?

Alistair · October 2018

Foxy said:

Alistair said:

Nigelb said:
More disturbing WTF stories:

Turkey says journalist was murdered in Saudi consulate
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45775819

'Limousine crash' leaves twenty dead in New York State
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-45778366
The journalist murdered at the Saudi embassy has Saudi dissidents absolutely shitting themselves. People are moving house and disappearing off the grid.
Will our government stop arms sales to the Saudis over this, even if they will not for the Yemen war crimes?

Well given Thatcher was perfectly happy ignore the murder of an Observer journalist by Saddam to keep lucrative export contracts I'd imagine no.

HYUFD · October 2018

Stereotomy said:

HYUFD said:

HarryHayfield said:
I do not believe that you can make the statement "I’m expecting the Democrats to take the House in November" because the Democrat lead in the congressional generic polling is falling fast. Three weeks ago they had an average lead of 8% using the data from Real Clear Politics, today it is down to 7.2% and that rate they will lead by 5% on election day. According to a forecaster I have a 7.2% Dem lead equals a GOP majority in the House of 13, so, no, the Democrats will NOT take the House in November.
The YouGov model is far better than any hypothetical forecast of national percentage lead which takes no account of swing districts, on that model the Democrats will gain almost 30 seats from the 195 they hold currently. Indeed even with an estimated 7.3% lead the YouGov model taken in swing districts has the Democrats taking a majority in the House 222 to 213 for the Republicans.

https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2018/08/19/cbs-news-yougov-house-model-democrats-222-republic

The question is more whether the GOP can keep the Senate now, especially after the Senate confirmed Kavanaugh which may drive up female Democratic turnout, than whether the Dems will take the House.

What odds do you put on Dems taking a) the House, b) the Senate?

I don't tend to bet but I would say the Dems have an 80% chance of taking the House and a 45% chance of taking the Senate

logical_song · October 2018

HYUFD said:

HarryHayfield said:
I do not believe that you can make the statement "I’m expecting the Democrats to take the House in November" because the Democrat lead in the congressional generic polling is falling fast. Three weeks ago they had an average lead of 8% using the data from Real Clear Politics, today it is down to 7.2% and that rate they will lead by 5% on election day. According to a forecaster I have a 7.2% Dem lead equals a GOP majority in the House of 13, so, no, the Democrats will NOT take the House in November.
The YouGov model is far better than any hypothetical forecast of national percentage lead which takes no account of swing districts, on that model the Democrats will gain almost 30 seats from the 195 they hold currently. Indeed even with an estimated 7.3% lead the YouGov model taken in swing districts has the Democrats taking a majority in the House 222 to 213 for the Republicans.

https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2018/08/19/cbs-news-yougov-house-model-democrats-222-republic

The question is more whether the GOP can keep the Senate now, especially after the Senate confirmed Kavanaugh which may drive up female Democratic turnout, than whether the Dems will take the House.

538 makes it 74% to 26% that the Dems take the House.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/

Alistair · October 2018

HYUFD said:

Stereotomy said:

HYUFD said:

HarryHayfield said:
I do not believe that you can make the statement "I’m expecting the Democrats to take the House in November" because the Democrat lead in the congressional generic polling is falling fast. Three weeks ago they had an average lead of 8% using the data from Real Clear Politics, today it is down to 7.2% and that rate they will lead by 5% on election day. According to a forecaster I have a 7.2% Dem lead equals a GOP majority in the House of 13, so, no, the Democrats will NOT take the House in November.
The YouGov model is far better than any hypothetical forecast of national percentage lead which takes no account of swing districts, on that model the Democrats will gain almost 30 seats from the 195 they hold currently. Indeed even with an estimated 7.3% lead the YouGov model taken in swing districts has the Democrats taking a majority in the House 222 to 213 for the Republicans.

https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2018/08/19/cbs-news-yougov-house-model-democrats-222-republic

The question is more whether the GOP can keep the Senate now, especially after the Senate confirmed Kavanaugh which may drive up female Democratic turnout, than whether the Dems will take the House.

What odds do you put on Dems taking a) the House, b) the Senate?
I don't tend to bet but I would say the Dems have an 80% chance of taking the House and a 45% chance of taking the Senate

If say way less chance of taking the Senate but agree with you on the House.

As things stand. However the reason I have greened out on the market is because Events seem pretty hard to predict and quantify.

rcs1000 · October 2018

Alistair said:

HYUFD said:

Stereotomy said:

HYUFD said:

HarryHayfield said:
I do not believe that you can make the statement "I’m expecting the Democrats to take the House in November" because the Democrat lead in the congressional generic polling is falling fast. Three weeks ago they had an average lead of 8% using the data from Real Clear Politics, today it is down to 7.2% and that rate they will lead by 5% on election day. According to a forecaster I have a 7.2% Dem lead equals a GOP majority in the House of 13, so, no, the Democrats will NOT take the House in November.
The YouGov model is far better than any hypothetical forecast of national percentage lead which takes no account of swing districts, on that model the Democrats will gain almost 30 seats from the 195 they hold currently. Indeed even with an estimated 7.3% lead the YouGov model taken in swing districts has the Democrats taking a majority in the House 222 to 213 for the Republicans.

https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2018/08/19/cbs-news-yougov-house-model-democrats-222-republic

The question is more whether the GOP can keep the Senate now, especially after the Senate confirmed Kavanaugh which may drive up female Democratic turnout, than whether the Dems will take the House.

What odds do you put on Dems taking a) the House, b) the Senate?
I don't tend to bet but I would say the Dems have an 80% chance of taking the House and a 45% chance of taking the Senate
If say way less chance of taking the Senate but agree with you on the House.

As things stand. However the reason I have greened out on the market is because Events seem pretty hard to predict and quantify.

Agreed. I think it's perhaps a one in ten shot for the Senate. (Maybe 1-in-20)

rcs1000 · October 2018

Quincel said:

DoubleCarpet said:
Brazil Presidential 1st round

Evening all and trust you're all well!

From CNBC:

"Polls open at 8 a.m. (1100 GMT) and close at 5 p.m. in all but the far western portions of Brazil. Exit polls should be broadcast at 7 p.m. and results will start flowing shortly after that because Brazil uses an electronic voting system.

The 147 million voters will choose the president, all 513 members of the lower house of Congress, two-thirds of the 81-member Senate plus governors and lawmakers in all 27 states."

TV:

https://www.redetv.uol.com.br/aovivo/

Official results:

http://divulga.tse.jus.br/index.html

Betfair:

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.143383495

The second round (likely Bolsonaro/Haddad) would be on 28th Oct if no-one clears 50%.

What are people betting on at the moment? I'm on Bolsonaro, Higgins in Ireland, and Cruz to win Texas, would be interested to know what some of the big punters are currently on.

Thanks and best wishes to all,

DC
Not sure if I count as a big punter but as a regular punter at any stakes I've laid Bolsonaro for a bit and am watching the first round vote share closely to consider adding to that since I suspect his odds will fall even if he is in the low/mid 30s (which would potentially indicate a difficult road to 50%).

Also on Cruz to hold Texas. He could lose, which is quite something, but the odds have gotten ahead of the probabilities.

The Democrats just lost a House Seat in Texas (https://www.texastribune.org/2018/09/18/republican-pete-flores-track-upset-race-democratic-friendly-uresti-sea/), which indicates all is not well there.

HYUFD · October 2018

Alistair said:

HYUFD said:

Stereotomy said:

HYUFD said:

HarryHayfield said:
I do not believe that you can make the statement "I’m expecting the Democrats to take the House in November" because the Democrat lead in the congressional generic polling is falling fast. Three weeks ago they had an average lead of 8% using the data from Real Clear Politics, today it is down to 7.2% and that rate they will lead by 5% on election day. According to a forecaster I have a 7.2% Dem lead equals a GOP majority in the House of 13, so, no, the Democrats will NOT take the House in November.
The YouGov model is far better than any hypothetical forecast of national percentage lead which takes no account of swing districts, on that model the Democrats will gain almost 30 seats from the 195 they hold currently. Indeed even with an estimated 7.3% lead the YouGov model taken in swing districts has the Democrats taking a majority in the House 222 to 213 for the Republicans.

https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2018/08/19/cbs-news-yougov-house-model-democrats-222-republic

The question is more whether the GOP can keep the Senate now, especially after the Senate confirmed Kavanaugh which may drive up female Democratic turnout, than whether the Dems will take the House.

What odds do you put on Dems taking a) the House, b) the Senate?
I don't tend to bet but I would say the Dems have an 80% chance of taking the House and a 45% chance of taking the Senate
If say way less chance of taking the Senate but agree with you on the House.

As things stand. However the reason I have greened out on the market is because Events seem pretty hard to predict and quantify.

On the latest Senate polls the Dems would take Nevada, Arizona and hold all their current seats bar N Dakota with Florida and Missouri tied. If they won Florida and Missouri that would make it 50 50 with Pence having the casting vote. If the Dems win Tennessee or Texas where they led at least 1 poll last month that would give a Dem majority

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2018

justin124 · October 2018

I was informed this afternoon that a niece has recently graduated with a 1st class degree in Midwifery. Beyond saying'Well done' I bit my tongue, but in truth I have difficulty in accepting this as being a 'genuine' degree in the traditional sense. To me, it sounds very much like one of the invented degree courses - such as Nursing-Film Studies - or even Education. Any views?

TheWhiteRabbit · October 2018

justin124 said:
I was informed this afternoon that a niece has recently graduated with a 1st class degree in Midwifery. Beyond saying'Well done' I bit my tongue, but in truth I have difficulty in accepting this as being a 'genuine' degree in the traditional sense. To me, it sounds very much like one of the invented degree courses - such as Nursing-Film Studies - or even Education. Any views?

Is she going to be a midwife?

TheWhiteRabbit · October 2018

HYUFD said:

Alistair said:

HYUFD said:

Stereotomy said:

HYUFD said:

HarryHayfield said:
I do not believe that you can make the statement "I’m expecting the Democrats to take the House in November" because the Democrat lead in the congressional generic polling is falling fast. Three weeks ago they had an average lead of 8% using the data from Real Clear Politics, today it is down to 7.2% and that rate they will lead by 5% on election day. According to a forecaster I have a 7.2% Dem lead equals a GOP majority in the House of 13, so, no, the Democrats will NOT take the House in November.
The YouGov model is far better than any hypothetical forecast of national percentage lead which takes no account of swing districts, on that model the Democrats will gain almost 30 seats from the 195 they hold currently. Indeed even with an estimated 7.3% lead the YouGov model taken in swing districts has the Democrats taking a majority in the House 222 to 213 for the Republicans.

https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2018/08/19/cbs-news-yougov-house-model-democrats-222-republic

The question is more whether the GOP can keep the Senate now, especially after the Senate confirmed Kavanaugh which may drive up female Democratic turnout, than whether the Dems will take the House.

What odds do you put on Dems taking a) the House, b) the Senate?
I don't tend to bet but I would say the Dems have an 80% chance of taking the House and a 45% chance of taking the Senate
If say way less chance of taking the Senate but agree with you on the House.

As things stand. However the reason I have greened out on the market is because Events seem pretty hard to predict and quantify.
On the latest Senate polls the Dems would take Nevada, Arizona and hold all their current seats bar N Dakota with Florida and Missouri tied. If they won Florida and Missouri that would make it 50 50 with Pence having the casting vote. If the Dems win Tennessee or Texas where they led at least 1 poll last month that would give a Dem majority

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2018

but n.b. the independents do not count as Dems for Betfair purposes

justin124 · October 2018

TheWhiteRabbit said:

justin124 said:
I was informed this afternoon that a niece has recently graduated with a 1st class degree in Midwifery. Beyond saying'Well done' I bit my tongue, but in truth I have difficulty in accepting this as being a 'genuine' degree in the traditional sense. To me, it sounds very much like one of the invented degree courses - such as Nursing-Film Studies - or even Education. Any views?
Is she going to be a midwife?

She is indeed.

IanB2 · October 2018

HYUFD said:

Stereotomy said:

HYUFD said:

HarryHayfield said:
I do not believe that you can make the statement "I’m expecting the Democrats to take the House in November" because the Democrat lead in the congressional generic polling is falling fast. Three weeks ago they had an average lead of 8% using the data from Real Clear Politics, today it is down to 7.2% and that rate they will lead by 5% on election day. According to a forecaster I have a 7.2% Dem lead equals a GOP majority in the House of 13, so, no, the Democrats will NOT take the House in November.
The YouGov model is far better than any hypothetical forecast of national percentage lead which takes no account of swing districts, on that model the Democrats will gain almost 30 seats from the 195 they hold currently. Indeed even with an estimated 7.3% lead the YouGov model taken in swing districts has the Democrats taking a majority in the House 222 to 213 for the Republicans.

https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2018/08/19/cbs-news-yougov-house-model-democrats-222-republic

The question is more whether the GOP can keep the Senate now, especially after the Senate confirmed Kavanaugh which may drive up female Democratic turnout, than whether the Dems will take the House.

What odds do you put on Dems taking a) the House, b) the Senate?
I don't tend to bet but I would say the Dems have an 80% chance of taking the House and a 45% chance of taking the Senate

You "don't tend to bet"??? Yet you of all PB posters seem so very sure of the future; surely, you could make a fortune...?

ydoethur · October 2018

justin124 said:
I was informed this afternoon that a niece has recently graduated with a 1st class degree in Midwifery. Beyond saying'Well done' I bit my tongue, but in truth I have difficulty in accepting this as being a 'genuine' degree in the traditional sense. To me, it sounds very much like one of the invented degree courses - such as Nursing-Film Studies - or even Education. Any views?

Education is one of the oldest non-liberal arts degrees.

PS I've never come across Nursing-Film Studies. Which university offers that and what do you study?

Alistair · October 2018

justin124 said:
I was informed this afternoon that a niece has recently graduated with a 1st class degree in Midwifery. Beyond saying'Well done' I bit my tongue, but in truth I have difficulty in accepting this as being a 'genuine' degree in the traditional sense. To me, it sounds very much like one of the invented degree courses - such as Nursing-Film Studies - or even Education. Any views?

A midwife degree is normally half academic study and half on the job training.

Torby_Fennel · October 2018

justin124 said:
I was informed this afternoon that a niece has recently graduated with a 1st class degree in Midwifery. Beyond saying'Well done' I bit my tongue, but in truth I have difficulty in accepting this as being a 'genuine' degree in the traditional sense. To me, it sounds very much like one of the invented degree courses - such as Nursing-Film Studies - or even Education. Any views?

Would you care to name a degree course that wasn't, at some point, invented?

kle4 · October 2018

justin124 said:
I was informed this afternoon that a niece has recently graduated with a 1st class degree in Midwifery. Beyond saying'Well done' I bit my tongue, but in truth I have difficulty in accepting this as being a 'genuine' degree in the traditional sense. To me, it sounds very much like one of the invented degree courses - such as Nursing-Film Studies - or even Education. Any views?

Just that I'd assume a large proportion of such a course surely has to be on the job training, basically apprenticeship.

HYUFD · October 2018

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:

Stereotomy said:

HYUFD said:

HarryHayfield said:
I do not believe that you can make the statement "I’m expecting the Democrats to take the House in November" because the Democrat lead in the congressional generic polling is falling fast. Three weeks ago they had an average lead of 8% using the data from Real Clear Politics, today it is down to 7.2% and that rate they will lead by 5% on election day. According to a forecaster I have a 7.2% Dem lead equals a GOP majority in the House of 13, so, no, the Democrats will NOT take the House in November.
The YouGov model is far better than any hypothetical forecast of national percentage lead which takes no account of swing districts, on that model the Democrats will gain almost 30 seats from the 195 they hold currently. Indeed even with an estimated 7.3% lead the YouGov model taken in swing districts has the Democrats taking a majority in the House 222 to 213 for the Republicans.

https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2018/08/19/cbs-news-yougov-house-model-democrats-222-republic

The question is more whether the GOP can keep the Senate now, especially after the Senate confirmed Kavanaugh which may drive up female Democratic turnout, than whether the Dems will take the House.

What odds do you put on Dems taking a) the House, b) the Senate?
I don't tend to bet but I would say the Dems have an 80% chance of taking the House and a 45% chance of taking the Senate
You "don't tend to bet"??? Yet you of all PB posters seem so very sure of the future; surely, you could make a fortune...?

The last time I bet with Betfair online on politics was Newt Gingrich to win the South Carolina Primary in 2012

justin124 · October 2018

ydoethur said:

justin124 said:
I was informed this afternoon that a niece has recently graduated with a 1st class degree in Midwifery. Beyond saying'Well done' I bit my tongue, but in truth I have difficulty in accepting this as being a 'genuine' degree in the traditional sense. To me, it sounds very much like one of the invented degree courses - such as Nursing-Film Studies - or even Education. Any views?
Education is one of the oldest non-liberal arts degrees.

I was thinking of the B.Ed - which I believe came along in the 1980s when it was decided that Teaching should become an all -graduate profession. In reality the B.Ed was little different to the Teaching Certificate which it replaced as the main qualification for Primary School Teaching.

HYUFD · October 2018

TheWhiteRabbit said:

HYUFD said:

Alistair said:

HYUFD said:

Stereotomy said:

HYUFD said:

HarryHayfield said:
I do not believe that you can make the statement "I’m expecting the Democrats to take the House in November" because the Democrat lead in the congressional generic polling is falling fast. Three weeks ago they had an average lead of 8% using the data from Real Clear Politics, today it is down to 7.2% and that rate they will lead by 5% on election day. According to a forecaster I have a 7.2% Dem lead equals a GOP majority in the House of 13, so, no, the Democrats will NOT take the House in November.
The YouGov model is far better than any hypothetical forecast of national percentage lead which takes no account of swing districts, on that model the Democrats will gain almost 30 seats from the 195 they hold currently. Indeed even with an estimated 7.3% lead the YouGov model taken in swing districts has the Democrats taking a majority in the House 222 to 213 for the Republicans.

https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2018/08/19/cbs-news-yougov-house-model-democrats-222-republic

The question is more whether the GOP can keep the Senate now, especially after the Senate confirmed Kavanaugh which may drive up female Democratic turnout, than whether the Dems will take the House.

What odds do you put on Dems taking a) the House, b) the Senate?
I don't tend to bet but I would say the Dems have an 80% chance of taking the House and a 45% chance of taking the Senate
If say way less chance of taking the Senate but agree with you on the House.

As things stand. However the reason I have greened out on the market is because Events seem pretty hard to predict and quantify.
On the latest Senate polls the Dems would take Nevada, Arizona and hold all their current seats bar N Dakota with Florida and Missouri tied. If they won Florida and Missouri that would make it 50 50 with Pence having the casting vote. If the Dems win Tennessee or Texas where they led at least 1 poll last month that would give a Dem majority

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2018
but n.b. the independents do not count as Dems for Betfair purposes

They caucus with the Dems so in reality are whatever Betfair say

ydoethur · October 2018

justin124 said:

ydoethur said:

justin124 said:
I was informed this afternoon that a niece has recently graduated with a 1st class degree in Midwifery. Beyond saying'Well done' I bit my tongue, but in truth I have difficulty in accepting this as being a 'genuine' degree in the traditional sense. To me, it sounds very much like one of the invented degree courses - such as Nursing-Film Studies - or even Education. Any views?
Education is one of the oldest non-liberal arts degrees.
I was thinking of the B.Ed - which I believe came along in the 1980s when it was decided that Teaching should become an all -graduate profession. In reality the B.Ed was litle different to the Teaching Certificate which it replaced as the main qualification for Primary School Teaching.

You would believe wrong. My mother was a BEd and qualified in 1967. I think it was first awarded in 1851, although I can't be sure without checking.

You're confusing it with the PGCE, which does date from the 80s but is not a degree.

Edit - certainly doctorates in education were awarded from the nineteenth century.

justin124 · October 2018

Alistair said:

justin124 said:
I was informed this afternoon that a niece has recently graduated with a 1st class degree in Midwifery. Beyond saying'Well done' I bit my tongue, but in truth I have difficulty in accepting this as being a 'genuine' degree in the traditional sense. To me, it sounds very much like one of the invented degree courses - such as Nursing-Film Studies - or even Education. Any views?
A midwife degree is normally half academic study and half on the job training.

Yes - that is my impression too. Until recently,however, there was no expectation that a Midwife would be expected to be a graduate. Ditto re-Nursing.

Foxy · October 2018

justin124 said:
I was informed this afternoon that a niece has recently graduated with a 1st class degree in Midwifery. Beyond saying'Well done' I bit my tongue, but in truth I have difficulty in accepting this as being a 'genuine' degree in the traditional sense. To me, it sounds very much like one of the invented degree courses - such as Nursing-Film Studies - or even Education. Any views?

It combines book learning and practical stuff, a bit like my own medical degree. Is that a proper degree? In the 18th Century they didn't think so!

justin124 · October 2018

ydoethur said:

justin124 said:
I was informed this afternoon that a niece has recently graduated with a 1st class degree in Midwifery. Beyond saying'Well done' I bit my tongue, but in truth I have difficulty in accepting this as being a 'genuine' degree in the traditional sense. To me, it sounds very much like one of the invented degree courses - such as Nursing-Film Studies - or even Education. Any views?
Education is one of the oldest non-liberal arts degrees.

PS I've never come across Nursing-Film Studies. Which university offers that and what do you study?

Two separate courses - Nursing - Film Studies etc!

ydoethur · October 2018

Foxy said:

justin124 said:
I was informed this afternoon that a niece has recently graduated with a 1st class degree in Midwifery. Beyond saying'Well done' I bit my tongue, but in truth I have difficulty in accepting this as being a 'genuine' degree in the traditional sense. To me, it sounds very much like one of the invented degree courses - such as Nursing-Film Studies - or even Education. Any views?
It combines book learning and practical stuff, a bit like my own medical degree. Is that a proper degree? In the 18th Century they didn't think so!

The BM is an interesting example of a degree that really has failed to move with the times. Given its length, its complexity and the high standards that should be and I believe are demanded, it is ridiculous that it is still a bachelor's degree. It should really be a doctorate, as in the US. The fact it isn't is a hangover from the days when doctorates were awarded as more or less an honorary thing by universities, rather than a specific qualification.

justin124 · October 2018

ydoethur said:

justin124 said:

ydoethur said:

justin124 said:
I was informed this afternoon that a niece has recently graduated with a 1st class degree in Midwifery. Beyond saying'Well done' I bit my tongue, but in truth I have difficulty in accepting this as being a 'genuine' degree in the traditional sense. To me, it sounds very much like one of the invented degree courses - such as Nursing-Film Studies - or even Education. Any views?
Education is one of the oldest non-liberal arts degrees.
I was thinking of the B.Ed - which I believe came along in the 1980s when it was decided that Teaching should become an all -graduate profession. In reality the B.Ed was litle different to the Teaching Certificate which it replaced as the main qualification for Primary School Teaching.
You would believe wrong. My mother was a BEd and qualified in 1967. I think it was first awarded in 1851, although I can't be sure without checking.

You're confusing it with the PGCE, which does date from the 80s but is not a degree.

Edit - certainly doctorates in education were awarded from the nineteenth century.

The PGCE - or something similar - was always the route taken by Graduates wishing to enter the Teaching Profession .It usually involved a further year of study following graduation.

ydoethur · October 2018

justin124 said:

ydoethur said:

justin124 said:
I was informed this afternoon that a niece has recently graduated with a 1st class degree in Midwifery. Beyond saying'Well done' I bit my tongue, but in truth I have difficulty in accepting this as being a 'genuine' degree in the traditional sense. To me, it sounds very much like one of the invented degree courses - such as Nursing-Film Studies - or even Education. Any views?
Education is one of the oldest non-liberal arts degrees.

PS I've never come across Nursing-Film Studies. Which university offers that and what do you study?
Two separate courses - Nursing - Film Studies etc!

Pity. I had a wonderful vision of a course that centred on Scrubs and Carry On Nurse...

Foxy · October 2018

kle4 said:

Foxy said:

Alistair said:

Nigelb said:
More disturbing WTF stories:

Turkey says journalist was murdered in Saudi consulate
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45775819

'Limousine crash' leaves twenty dead in New York State
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-45778366
The journalist murdered at the Saudi embassy has Saudi dissidents absolutely shitting themselves. People are moving house and disappearing off the grid.
Will our government stop arms sales to the Saudis over this, even if they will not for the Yemen war crimes?
That's a lot of money.

We expected other countries to apply sanctions over Salisbury.

justin124 · October 2018

Foxy said:

justin124 said:
I was informed this afternoon that a niece has recently graduated with a 1st class degree in Midwifery. Beyond saying'Well done' I bit my tongue, but in truth I have difficulty in accepting this as being a 'genuine' degree in the traditional sense. To me, it sounds very much like one of the invented degree courses - such as Nursing-Film Studies - or even Education. Any views?
It combines book learning and practical stuff, a bit like my own medical degree. Is that a proper degree? In the 18th Century they didn't think so!

Much more comparable to a Nursing Degree I would have thought.

ydoethur · October 2018

justin124 said:

ydoethur said:

justin124 said:

ydoethur said:

justin124 said:
I was informed this afternoon that a niece has recently graduated with a 1st class degree in Midwifery. Beyond saying'Well done' I bit my tongue, but in truth I have difficulty in accepting this as being a 'genuine' degree in the traditional sense. To me, it sounds very much like one of the invented degree courses - such as Nursing-Film Studies - or even Education. Any views?
Education is one of the oldest non-liberal arts degrees.
I was thinking of the B.Ed - which I believe came along in the 1980s when it was decided that Teaching should become an all -graduate profession. In reality the B.Ed was litle different to the Teaching Certificate which it replaced as the main qualification for Primary School Teaching.
You would believe wrong. My mother was a BEd and qualified in 1967. I think it was first awarded in 1851, although I can't be sure without checking.

You're confusing it with the PGCE, which does date from the 80s but is not a degree.

Edit - certainly doctorates in education were awarded from the nineteenth century.
The PGCE - or something similar - was always the route taken by Graduates wishing to enter the Teaching Profession .It usually involved a further year of study following graduation.

I hate to be contradictory - but it really wasn't. It is a new invention. Graduates going into teaching either did teaching diplomas, which could be degrees, at Teacher Training Colleges, or undergraduate degrees and then straight into teaching. It is only comparatively recently that the PGCE has been brought in as a professional qualification. (And as an aside, you don't actually need a degree to do it - the professional graduate certificate only requires A-levels.) Now of course it is being phased out itself, which seems ironic.

Edit - and actually it was more to do with union pressure than government pressure. They wanted to restrict the pool of potential applicants to drive up wages.

Anyway, I am going to get an early night. Have a good evening.

kle4 · October 2018

Foxy said:

kle4 said:

Foxy said:

Alistair said:

Nigelb said:
More disturbing WTF stories:

Turkey says journalist was murdered in Saudi consulate
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45775819

'Limousine crash' leaves twenty dead in New York State
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-45778366
The journalist murdered at the Saudi embassy has Saudi dissidents absolutely shitting themselves. People are moving house and disappearing off the grid.
Will our government stop arms sales to the Saudis over this, even if they will not for the Yemen war crimes?
That's a lot of money.
We expected other countries to apply sanctions over Salisbury.

I was commenting on the likelihood of something happening. I think we all knew the answer.

TheWhiteRabbit · October 2018

HYUFD said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

HYUFD said:

Alistair said:

HYUFD said:

Stereotomy said:

HYUFD said:

HarryHayfield said:
I do not believe that you can make the statement "I’m expecting the Democrats to take the House in November" because the Democrat lead in the congressional generic polling is falling fast. Three weeks ago they had an average lead of 8% using the data from Real Clear Politics, today it is down to 7.2% and that rate they will lead by 5% on election day. According to a forecaster I have a 7.2% Dem lead equals a GOP majority in the House of 13, so, no, the Democrats will NOT take the House in November.
The YouGov model is far better than any hypothetical forecast of national percentage lead which takes no account of swing districts, on that model the Democrats will gain almost 30 seats from the 195 they hold currently. Indeed even with an estimated 7.3% lead the YouGov model taken in swing districts has the Democrats taking a majority in the House 222 to 213 for the Republicans.

https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2018/08/19/cbs-news-yougov-house-model-democrats-222-republic

The question is more whether the GOP can keep the Senate now, especially after the Senate confirmed Kavanaugh which may drive up female Democratic turnout, than whether the Dems will take the House.

What odds do you put on Dems taking a) the House, b) the Senate?
I don't tend to bet but I would say the Dems have an 80% chance of taking the House and a 45% chance of taking the Senate
If say way less chance of taking the Senate but agree with you on the House.

As things stand. However the reason I have greened out on the market is because Events seem pretty hard to predict and quantify.
On the latest Senate polls the Dems would take Nevada, Arizona and hold all their current seats bar N Dakota with Florida and Missouri tied. If they won Florida and Missouri that would make it 50 50 with Pence having the casting vote. If the Dems win Tennessee or Texas where they led at least 1 poll last month that would give a Dem majority

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2018
but n.b. the independents do not count as Dems for Betfair purposes
They caucus with the Dems so in reality are whatever Betfair say

I mean Sanders was almost their candidate.

but if you're betting on it...

Foxy · October 2018

kle4 said:

Foxy said:

kle4 said:

Foxy said:

Alistair said:

Nigelb said:
More disturbing WTF stories:

Turkey says journalist was murdered in Saudi consulate
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45775819

'Limousine crash' leaves twenty dead in New York State
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-45778366
The journalist murdered at the Saudi embassy has Saudi dissidents absolutely shitting themselves. People are moving house and disappearing off the grid.
Will our government stop arms sales to the Saudis over this, even if they will not for the Yemen war crimes?
That's a lot of money.
We expected other countries to apply sanctions over Salisbury.
I was commenting on the likelihood of something happening. I think we all knew the answer.

Yes, but is it OK to tolerate the Saudis doing this, while we complain over Putin doing the same?

Can you not see a dangerous international trend developing?

Foxy · October 2018

justin124 said:

Foxy said:

justin124 said:
I was informed this afternoon that a niece has recently graduated with a 1st class degree in Midwifery. Beyond saying'Well done' I bit my tongue, but in truth I have difficulty in accepting this as being a 'genuine' degree in the traditional sense. To me, it sounds very much like one of the invented degree courses - such as Nursing-Film Studies - or even Education. Any views?
It combines book learning and practical stuff, a bit like my own medical degree. Is that a proper degree? In the 18th Century they didn't think so!
Much more comparable to a Nursing Degree I would have thought.

I am happy to be considered an artisan!

justin124 · October 2018

ydoethur said:

justin124 said:

ydoethur said:

justin124 said:

ydoethur said:

justin124 said:
I was informed this afternoon that a niece has recently graduated with a 1st class degree in Midwifery. Beyond saying'Well done' I bit my tongue, but in truth I have difficulty in accepting this as being a 'genuine' degree in the traditional sense. To me, it sounds very much like one of the invented degree courses - such as Nursing-Film Studies - or even Education. Any views?
I was thinking of the B.Ed - which I believe came along in the 1980s when it was decided that Teaching should become an all -graduate profession. In reality the B.Ed was litle different to the Teaching Certificate which it replaced as the main qualification for Primary School Teaching.
You would believe wrong. My mother was a BEd and qualified in 1967. I think it was first awarded in 1851, although I can't be sure without checking.

You're confusing it with the PGCE, which does date from the 80s but is not a degree.

Edit - certainly doctorates in education were awarded from the nineteenth century.
The PGCE - or something similar - was always the route taken by Graduates wishing to enter the Teaching Profession .It usually involved a further year of study following graduation.
I hate to be contradictory - but it really wasn't. It is a new invention. Graduates going into teaching either did teaching diplomas, which could be degrees, at Teacher Training Colleges, or undergraduate degrees and then straight into teaching. It is only comparatively recently that the PGCE has been brought in as a professional qualification. (And as an aside, you don't actually need a degree to do it - the professional graduate certificate only requires A-levels.) Now of course it is being phased out itself, which seems ironic.

Edit - and actually it was more to do with union pressure than government pressure. They wanted to restrict the pool of potential applicants to drive up wages.

Anyway, I am going to get an early night. Have a good evening.

But surely the Teaching Diploma tended - not always - to be studied within the University at which he/she had graduated. I have clear memories from the mid-1970s of students staying on for an extra year at university to do the teaching qualification.

kle4 · October 2018

Foxy said:

kle4 said:

Foxy said:

kle4 said:

Foxy said:

Alistair said:

Nigelb said:
More disturbing WTF stories:

Turkey says journalist was murdered in Saudi consulate
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45775819

'Limousine crash' leaves twenty dead in New York State
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-45778366
The journalist murdered at the Saudi embassy has Saudi dissidents absolutely shitting themselves. People are moving house and disappearing off the grid.
Will our government stop arms sales to the Saudis over this, even if they will not for the Yemen war crimes?
That's a lot of money.
We expected other countries to apply sanctions over Salisbury.
I was commenting on the likelihood of something happening. I think we all knew the answer.
Yes, but is it OK to tolerate the Saudis doing this, while we complain over Putin doing the same?

Can you not see a dangerous international trend developing?

Of course I can, not that I think it is likely to be that new of a trend. You didn't ask if we thought it was ok, you asked if the government would stop arm sales. That wasn't a question which required a moral position to be taken in the answer, and the lack of one doesn't mean it doesn't exist.

alex. · October 2018

Foxy said:

kle4 said:

Foxy said:

kle4 said:

Foxy said:

Alistair said:

Nigelb said:
More disturbing WTF stories:

Turkey says journalist was murdered in Saudi consulate
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45775819

'Limousine crash' leaves twenty dead in New York State
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-45778366
The journalist murdered at the Saudi embassy has Saudi dissidents absolutely shitting themselves. People are moving house and disappearing off the grid.
Will our government stop arms sales to the Saudis over this, even if they will not for the Yemen war crimes?
That's a lot of money.
We expected other countries to apply sanctions over Salisbury.
I was commenting on the likelihood of something happening. I think we all knew the answer.
Yes, but is it OK to tolerate the Saudis doing this, while we complain over Putin doing the same?

Can you not see a dangerous international trend developing?

Well i suppose if one was being picky, the difference is that the alleged Saudi murder didn't take place on foreign soil (as well as the chemical weapon element)

HYUFD · October 2018

Foxy said:

justin124 said:
I was informed this afternoon that a niece has recently graduated with a 1st class degree in Midwifery. Beyond saying'Well done' I bit my tongue, but in truth I have difficulty in accepting this as being a 'genuine' degree in the traditional sense. To me, it sounds very much like one of the invented degree courses - such as Nursing-Film Studies - or even Education. Any views?
It combines book learning and practical stuff, a bit like my own medical degree. Is that a proper degree? In the 18th Century they didn't think so!

Classics and Theology are the only proper degrees, studied at Oxford or Cambridge, our only 2 proper universities as Sir Humphrey Appleby would say!

In 1840 87% of Oxford graduates became professionals and 59% of those became Anglican Clergy.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/University_of_Oxford

ExiledInScotland · October 2018

justin124 said:

ydoethur said:

justin124 said:

ydoethur said:

justin124 said:

ydoethur said:

justin124 said:
I was informed this afternoon that a niece has recently graduated with a 1st class degree in Midwifery. Beyond saying'Well done' I bit my tongue, but in truth I have difficulty in accepting this as being a 'genuine' degree in the traditional sense. To me, it sounds very much like one of the invented degree courses - such as Nursing-Film Studies - or even Education. Any views?
I was thinking of the B.Ed - which I believe came along in the 1980s when it was decided that Teaching should become an all -graduate profession. In reality the B.Ed was litle different to the Teaching Certificate which it replaced as the main qualification for Primary School Teaching.
You would believe wrong. My mother was a BEd and qualified in 1967. I think it was first awarded in 1851, although I can't be sure without checking.

You're confusing it with the PGCE, which does date from the 80s but is not a degree.

Edit - certainly doctorates in education were awarded from the nineteenth century.
The PGCE - or something similar - was always the route taken by Graduates wishing to enter the Teaching Profession .It usually involved a further year of study following graduation.
I hate to be contradictory - but it really wasn't. It is a new invention. Graduates going into teaching either did teaching diplomas, which could be degrees, at Teacher Training Colleges, or undergraduate degrees and then straight into teaching. It is only comparatively recently that the PGCE has been brought in as a professional qualification. (And as an aside, you don't actually need a degree to do it - the professional graduate certificate only requires A-levels.) Now of course it is being phased out itself, which seems ironic.

Edit - and actually it was more to do with union pressure than government pressure. They wanted to restrict the pool of potential applicants to drive up wages.

Anyway, I am going to get an early night. Have a good evening.
But surely the Teaching Diploma tended - not always - to be studied within the University at which he/she had graduated. I have clear memories from the mid-1970s of students staying on for an extra year at university to do the teaching qualification.

Private schools could / can take graduates direct without a teaching qualification I believe

TheWhiteRabbit · October 2018

well, it's 8:23 and brazilian TV is still cookery accompanied by elavator music...

Foxy · October 2018

kle4 said:

Foxy said:

kle4 said:

Foxy said:

kle4 said:

Foxy said:

Alistair said:

Nigelb said:
More disturbing WTF stories:

Turkey says journalist was murdered in Saudi consulate
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45775819

'Limousine crash' leaves twenty dead in New York State
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-45778366
The journalist murdered at the Saudi embassy has Saudi dissidents absolutely shitting themselves. People are moving house and disappearing off the grid.
Will our government stop arms sales to the Saudis over this, even if they will not for the Yemen war crimes?
That's a lot of money.
We expected other countries to apply sanctions over Salisbury.
I was commenting on the likelihood of something happening. I think we all knew the answer.
Yes, but is it OK to tolerate the Saudis doing this, while we complain over Putin doing the same?

Can you not see a dangerous international trend developing?
Of course I can, not that I think it is likely to be that new of a trend. You didn't ask if we thought it was ok, you asked if the government would stop arm sales. That wasn't a question which required a moral position to be taken in the answer, and the lack of one doesn't mean it doesn't exist.

I agree, a government that colludes with Saudi crimes in Yemen is not likely to object vociferously to this. We have a government that cannot tell the difference between a war crime and a sales opportunity.

tlg86 · October 2018

Foxy said:

kle4 said:

Foxy said:

kle4 said:

Foxy said:

Alistair said:

Nigelb said:
More disturbing WTF stories:

Turkey says journalist was murdered in Saudi consulate
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45775819

'Limousine crash' leaves twenty dead in New York State
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-45778366
The journalist murdered at the Saudi embassy has Saudi dissidents absolutely shitting themselves. People are moving house and disappearing off the grid.
Will our government stop arms sales to the Saudis over this, even if they will not for the Yemen war crimes?
That's a lot of money.
We expected other countries to apply sanctions over Salisbury.
I was commenting on the likelihood of something happening. I think we all knew the answer.
Yes, but is it OK to tolerate the Saudis doing this, while we complain over Putin doing the same?

Can you not see a dangerous international trend developing?

Do we (and by we, I mean our government) complain about Putin doing the same?

Foxy · October 2018

tlg86 said:

Foxy said:

kle4 said:

Foxy said:

kle4 said:

Foxy said:

Alistair said:

Nigelb said:
More disturbing WTF stories:

Turkey says journalist was murdered in Saudi consulate
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45775819

'Limousine crash' leaves twenty dead in New York State
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-45778366
The journalist murdered at the Saudi embassy has Saudi dissidents absolutely shitting themselves. People are moving house and disappearing off the grid.
Will our government stop arms sales to the Saudis over this, even if they will not for the Yemen war crimes?
That's a lot of money.
We expected other countries to apply sanctions over Salisbury.
I was commenting on the likelihood of something happening. I think we all knew the answer.
Yes, but is it OK to tolerate the Saudis doing this, while we complain over Putin doing the same?

Can you not see a dangerous international trend developing?
Do we (and by we, I mean our government) complain about Putin doing the same?

I do seem to recall that we objected to Putin bumping off opposition activists abroad.

tlg86 · October 2018

Foxy said:

tlg86 said:

Foxy said:

kle4 said:

Foxy said:

kle4 said:

Foxy said:

Alistair said:

Nigelb said:
More disturbing WTF stories:

Turkey says journalist was murdered in Saudi consulate
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45775819

'Limousine crash' leaves twenty dead in New York State
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-45778366
The journalist murdered at the Saudi embassy has Saudi dissidents absolutely shitting themselves. People are moving house and disappearing off the grid.
Will our government stop arms sales to the Saudis over this, even if they will not for the Yemen war crimes?
That's a lot of money.
We expected other countries to apply sanctions over Salisbury.
I was commenting on the likelihood of something happening. I think we all knew the answer.
Yes, but is it OK to tolerate the Saudis doing this, while we complain over Putin doing the same?

Can you not see a dangerous international trend developing?
Do we (and by we, I mean our government) complain about Putin doing the same?
I do seem to recall that we objected to Putin bumping off opposition activists abroad.

I know it's splitting hairs, but isn't a consulate technically Saudi soil?

stodge · October 2018

Evening all

A week tonight, we'll be chewing over the results from the Bavaria State Election, the first of two key tests for the German political parties (Hesse is the second on the 28th).

In Bavaria the latest polls point to sharp losses for both the CSU and SPD:

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm

CSU down 12-14 points, SPD down 7-9 points and again both the Greens and AfD the big winners. The CSU look set to lose their majority but if the FDP scrape back into the Landtag there may be a coalition there.

It's remarkable to see the CSU/SPD which had more than 2/3 of the vote in the 2013 election now holding less than half.

In Hesse, the pattern is similar but not quite as severe:

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/hessen.htm

CDU down nine, SPD down eight with the Greens up seven and AfD gaining nine from the last State poll in 2013. The FDP look to be coming back into the Landtag but Hesse is unusual in having the only CDU-Green coalition Government but that Government looks set to lose its majority but it may well continue as a minority.

So even with these big losses, the centre-right parties look to hold on in the State Governments but it makes for unpleasant reading for the governing parties and must put pressure on Merkel and Schultz.

DoubleCarpet · October 2018

Vielen dank Stodge!!

tlg86 · October 2018

tlg86 said:

Foxy said:

tlg86 said:

Foxy said:

kle4 said:

Foxy said:

kle4 said:

Foxy said:

Alistair said:

Nigelb said:
More disturbing WTF stories:

Turkey says journalist was murdered in Saudi consulate
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45775819

'Limousine crash' leaves twenty dead in New York State
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-45778366
The journalist murdered at the Saudi embassy has Saudi dissidents absolutely shitting themselves. People are moving house and disappearing off the grid.
Will our government stop arms sales to the Saudis over this, even if they will not for the Yemen war crimes?
That's a lot of money.
We expected other countries to apply sanctions over Salisbury.
I was commenting on the likelihood of something happening. I think we all knew the answer.
Yes, but is it OK to tolerate the Saudis doing this, while we complain over Putin doing the same?

Can you not see a dangerous international trend developing?
Do we (and by we, I mean our government) complain about Putin doing the same?
I do seem to recall that we objected to Putin bumping off opposition activists abroad.
I know it's splitting hairs, but isn't a consulate technically Saudi soil?

Having done some digging it would seem that it is not Saudi soil, but it does have diplomatic immunity.

geoffw · October 2018

tlg86 said:

tlg86 said:

Foxy said:

tlg86 said:

Foxy said:

kle4 said:

Foxy said:

kle4 said:

Foxy said:

Alistair said:

Nigelb said:
More disturbing WTF stories:

Turkey says journalist was murdered in Saudi consulate
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45775819

'Limousine crash' leaves twenty dead in New York State
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-45778366
The journalist murdered at the Saudi embassy has Saudi dissidents absolutely shitting themselves. People are moving house and disappearing off the grid.
Will our government stop arms sales to the Saudis over this, even if they will not for the Yemen war crimes?
That's a lot of money.
We expected other countries to apply sanctions over Salisbury.
I was commenting on the likelihood of something happening. I think we all knew the answer.
Yes, but is it OK to tolerate the Saudis doing this, while we complain over Putin doing the same?

Can you not see a dangerous international trend developing?
Do we (and by we, I mean our government) complain about Putin doing the same?
I do seem to recall that we objected to Putin bumping off opposition activists abroad.
I know it's splitting hairs, but isn't a consulate technically Saudi soil?
Having done some digging it would seem that it is not Saudi soil, but it does have diplomatic immunity.

Diplomatic impunity more like.

tlg86 · October 2018

geoffw said:

tlg86 said:

tlg86 said:

Foxy said:

tlg86 said:

Foxy said:

kle4 said:

Foxy said:

kle4 said:

Foxy said:

Alistair said:

Nigelb said:
More disturbing WTF stories:

Turkey says journalist was murdered in Saudi consulate
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45775819

'Limousine crash' leaves twenty dead in New York State
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-45778366
The journalist murdered at the Saudi embassy has Saudi dissidents absolutely shitting themselves. People are moving house and disappearing off the grid.
Will our government stop arms sales to the Saudis over this, even if they will not for the Yemen war crimes?
That's a lot of money.
We expected other countries to apply sanctions over Salisbury.
I was commenting on the likelihood of something happening. I think we all knew the answer.
Yes, but is it OK to tolerate the Saudis doing this, while we complain over Putin doing the same?

Can you not see a dangerous international trend developing?
Do we (and by we, I mean our government) complain about Putin doing the same?
I do seem to recall that we objected to Putin bumping off opposition activists abroad.
I know it's splitting hairs, but isn't a consulate technically Saudi soil?
Having done some digging it would seem that it is not Saudi soil, but it does have diplomatic immunity.
Diplomatic impunity more like.

stodge · October 2018

DoubleCarpet said:
Vielen dank Stodge!!

Bitte schon (as it were). I imagine you'll be running some competitions on these fascinating contests.

DoubleCarpet · October 2018

Haha I've retired from that sadly (until further notice anyway) but still following 40-odd countries.

BF latest is Bolsonaro 1.42 Haddad 3.5

TheWhiteRabbit · October 2018

DoubleCarpet said:
Haha I've retired from that sadly (until further notice anyway) but still following 40-odd countries.

BF latest is Bolsonaro 1.42 Haddad 3.5

This is one for TSE sure given he's named after the Brazilian government agency responsible for counting the votes

DoubleCarpet · October 2018

Hahaha!

Big move on BF for Haddad into 2.42 but Bolsonaro hasn't moved so we're probably talking pretty small amounts of money.

20 states and DF closed at 9pm UK, 5 more states at 10pm UK, final state at 11pm so presumably we'll get the exit polls then.

Already exits for governor races are coming out.

Brazil counts very fast (like India) with the electronic voting and counting.

Foxy · October 2018

FWIW

https://twitter.com/rioinformer/status/1048940817409347585?s=19

Big_G_NorthWales · October 2018

The Welsh rally car competition finished today in Llandudno with the rally cars going round the Great Orme driven at speeds of 100 + and it was an amazing spectacle. After they came off the Great Orme they drove at speed through part of the town before finishing over a jump by the St George's Hotel on the promenade

Between the first round and second round there was an interval where rally cross motor bikes performed stunts including, apparently, one where one rider went at speed at the ramp with another one going directly towards the oncoming rider.

Very sadly the two bikers collided head on and a 3 year boy has been flown by air ambulance to Alderhey Childrens Hospital with life threatening injuries. The police are appealing for mobile footage and investigations continue.

It is an uttertly dreadful thing to happen and we must all hope and pray the little lad overcomes his injuries.

I have been reading various reports on my twitter feed and on the daily mail comments there are overwhelming comments of sadness and hope the little lad and his family receive good news soon. But here is the thing, there are some 'morons' actively disliking the sentiments.

What has become of us for pity sake

TheWhiteRabbit · October 2018

DoubleCarpet said:
Hahaha!

Big move on BF for Haddad into 2.42 but Bolsonaro hasn't moved so we're probably talking pretty small amounts of money.

20 states and DF closed at 9pm UK, 5 more states at 10pm UK, final state at 11pm so presumably we'll get the exit polls then.

Already exits for governor races are coming out.

Brazil counts very fast (like India) with the electronic voting and counting.

I assumed that was the effect of going inplay or somesuch - no money changed hands at all

DoubleCarpet · October 2018

Senate Minas Gerais - former president Dilma only 4th:

Jornalista Carlos Viana (PHS): 21%
Dinis Pinheiro (SOLIDARIEDADE): 18%
Rodrigo Pacheco (DEM): 18%
Dilma Rousseff (PT): 15%
Miguel Correa (PT): 7%
Rodrigo Paiva (NOVO): 7%
Fábio Cherem (PDT): 4%
Professora Duda Salabert (PSOL): 3%
Coronel Lacerda (PPL): 2%
Bispo Damasceno (PPL): 1%
Edson Andre P (AVANTE): 1%
Kaka Menezes (REDE): 1%
Professor Tulio Lopes (PCB): 1%
Vanessa Portugal Barbosa (PSTU): 1%
Ana Alves (PCO): 0%

DoubleCarpet · October 2018

Yep Haddad is back out to 3.2 now.

If Rd 1 really is 41/25, it will be very difficult for Haddad to win the second round, Bolsonaro will only need to add Alckmin's share and he'll be pretty much there.

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