politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ashcroft US poll finds 53% saying there are grounds to believe
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Depends on what the document is, I suppose.Benpointer said:
That's nonsense. May could quite happily put her name to a document 'promising that there will be no second vote on leaving the EU' without the caveat, if she wanted. After all, it would not tie her successors in any way would it, since they would not feel bound by it?RobD said:
Because it would be stupid to say there was going to be no referendum ever again on the topic. People really do read too much into things sometimes.williamglenn said:0 -
So did I but tbf you can't always tell with some PB posts (not yours, of course)Beverley_C said:
I thought I was being tongue-in-cheek...Big_G_NorthWales said:
To be honest that is a perfectly fair option for those who want to campaign for it but we must leave firstBeverley_C said:
The new secret strategy is to leave, placating the Leavers, but once out to unilaterally join Schengen and the Euro thus buying off the Remainers and solving all the transport and currency conversion issues in one fell swoop....williamglenn said:Mutually assured economic destructing is not a useful negotiation position, especially if you have a weak political position. The UK's threat of No Deal is less credible than Tsipras's threat to leave the Euro.
What is not to like?
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Does it? What document could it possibly be that constrains future parliaments?RobD said:
Depends on what the document is, I suppose.Benpointer said:
That's nonsense. May could quite happily put her name to a document 'promising that there will be no second vote on leaving the EU' without the caveat, if she wanted. After all, it would not tie her successors in any way would it, since they would not feel bound by it?RobD said:
Because it would be stupid to say there was going to be no referendum ever again on the topic. People really do read too much into things sometimes.williamglenn said:0 -
Is there an actual news story about this somewhere, in a serious newspaper that troubles itself with facts?Theuniondivvie said:
Since the SCon education spokesperson, their 2016 manifesto and Ruth herself have spoken in favour of P1 testing, it'll be fascinating to see the justifications for this umpteenth u turn.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Good to see Ruth winning the dayCarlottaVance said:
To add insult to injury they don't even get his name right....Scott_P said:
I must confess I am perplexed why the Tories are opposing this. The allegation is that teachers, parents and pupils are all getting "stressed" about it. Seems very unlikely to me. On the other hand having a base record of achievement against which progress in School can be measured seems eminently sensible.
I am finding myself supporting an SNP policy being opposed by the Tories. Something is going wrong here somewhere.0 -
I so want this to happen that I cannot quite bring myself to believe it. Cruz is an arse of the first water. Go Beto.TheScreamingEagles said:
If it wasn’t for my legendary modesty I’d be telling you all I tipped that and this.Theuniondivvie said:
https://twitter.com/ladpolitics/status/1042450593510563840?s=210 -
O/T we had a 4-5 hour power cut today. Power only back at 6.30. It is seriously breezy even here on the east coast.0
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It is a boost for O'Rourke but yes do not go overboard, the Ipsos poll giving him the lead 47% to 45% was taken from 6th to 14th September, a Quinnipiac poll also out taken from 11th to 17th September has Cruz ahead 54% to 45%DavidL said:
I so want this to happen that I cannot quite bring myself to believe it. Cruz is an arse of the first water. Go Beto.TheScreamingEagles said:
If it wasn’t for my legendary modesty I’d be telling you all I tipped that and this.Theuniondivvie said:
https://twitter.com/ladpolitics/status/1042450593510563840?s=21
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Texas,_20180 -
Creates an explicit rationale for remainers to topple her thoughIshmael_Z said:
It would be natural to say "no second vote on leaving the EU *while I remain PM* to emphasize the point in her final sentence. "Within this parliament" is indeed weaselly.Benpointer said:
That's nonsense. May could quite happily put her name to a document 'promising that there will be no second vote on leaving the EU' without the caveat, if she wanted. After all, it would not tie her successors in any way would it, since they would not feel bound by it?RobD said:
Because it would be stupid to say there was going to be no referendum ever again on the topic. People really do read too much into things sometimes.williamglenn said:0 -
As I said, I will believe this when the last votes are counted. The last Democratic senator in Texas lost in 1993. That's a very long time ago.HYUFD said:
It is a boost for O'Rourke but yes do not go overboard, the Ipsos poll giving him the lead 47% to 45% was taken from 6th to 14th September, a Quinnipiac poll also out taken from 11th to 17th September has Cruz ahead 54% to 45%DavidL said:
I so want this to happen that I cannot quite bring myself to believe it. Cruz is an arse of the first water. Go Beto.TheScreamingEagles said:
If it wasn’t for my legendary modesty I’d be telling you all I tipped that and this.Theuniondivvie said:
https://twitter.com/ladpolitics/status/1042450593510563840?s=21
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Texas,_20180 -
My son's best mate has a fledgling tree surgery business up and running. I have my chainsaw ticket (thank you taxpayers!) and I help him out when he needs a hand. We've been run ragged in the East Mids today, the lad is very happy!DavidL said:O/T we had a 4-5 hour power cut today. Power only back at 6.30. It is seriously breezy even here on the east coast.
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I can't resist it. It's an ill wind that doesn't blow somebody some good.twistedfirestopper3 said:
My son's best mate has a fledgling tree surgery business up and running. I have my chainsaw ticket (thank you taxpayers!) and I help him out when he needs a hand. we've been run ragged in the East Mids today, the lad is very happy!DavidL said:O/T we had a 4-5 hour power cut today. Power only back at 6.30. It is seriously breezy even here on the east coast.
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HYUFD said:
A Corbyn Brexit would not be in the single market exactly as a May Brexit would, although the ultimate destination for both during any transition period would be effectively to be in the single market and customs union in all but name.LordOfReason said:
Fascinating how you can know that, when Starmer and Corbyn have had years to clarify, yet no one is any the wiser on what Labours position actually is, except you.HYUFD said:
A Corbyn Brexit would be indistinguishable from a May Brexit in most areasLordOfReason said:
Totally disagree with you, In fact the very opposite of what you are saying is actually happening, the EU negotiation is no longer properly based on avoiding pain to both sides, just deadlocked in political sticking points. Everything the EU now says smacks to me gotiate with us this side of a GE. I am more convinced every hour, no deal and delay is EUs tactics playing out in front of our eyes. And they are going to sneak the blame on our government as best they can.Big_G_NorthWales said:
This is only the start. When EU countries realise we could no deal Brexit the pressure on Barnier and the EU will be a crisis of their own makingCarlottaVance said:European airports have privately warned that a "no-deal" Brexit would cause "major disruption and heightened safety risks", Sky News has learned.
in a custom union, but not THE custom union? Can Anyone explain that?
What we can be clear about, if Corbyns position is just as you say it is, indistinguishable from May’s, it’s probably in about 1 to 5 minority position in the labour movement, not even backed by the union masters or Momentum praetorian guards! In other words, even if Corbyn were to write in agreeing with what you said, it wouldn’t be worth the paper it was written on, not that he would, as “I would do the same as Tess” is hardly what he has been spinning.
If there was a GE and Labour won it, EU would get a better deal for themselves out of us. fact. And it’s a fact that is now torpedoing May’s deal.
It also assumes Corbyn would win a new general election, in fact based on Yougov yesterday May would win a small majority in a new general election
You would be confident of MAY with a 4%
Blimey0 -
While Ruth Davidson is impressive in interviews and "presentationally", in terms of substance she does seem pretty lightweight to me, even by the standards of Opposition politicians. Her platform seems to just be "no indyref2" with the rest made up of a bunch of incoherent tactical manoeuvres like this.DavidL said:
Is there an actual news story about this somewhere, in a serious newspaper that troubles itself with facts?Theuniondivvie said:
Since the SCon education spokesperson, their 2016 manifesto and Ruth herself have spoken in favour of P1 testing, it'll be fascinating to see the justifications for this umpteenth u turn.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Good to see Ruth winning the dayCarlottaVance said:
To add insult to injury they don't even get his name right....Scott_P said:
I must confess I am perplexed why the Tories are opposing this. The allegation is that teachers, parents and pupils are all getting "stressed" about it. Seems very unlikely to me. On the other hand having a base record of achievement against which progress in School can be measured seems eminently sensible.
I am finding myself supporting an SNP policy being opposed by the Tories. Something is going wrong here somewhere.0 -
YouGov had the Tories on 42% in their final poll before May called the 2017 general election, the Tories got 42% on election night, almost all Corbyn's gains came from minor parties who have now largely been squeezed to the bone, indeed if anything there has been some slight Labour to LD movement in the latest pollsbigjohnowls said:HYUFD said:
A Corbyn Brexit would not be in the single market exactly as a May Brexit would, although the ultimate destination for both during any transition period would be effectively to be in the single market and customs union in all but name.LordOfReason said:
Fascinating how you can know that, when Starmer and Corbyn have had years to clarify, yet no one is any the wiser on what Labours position actually is, except you.HYUFD said:
A Corbyn Brexit would be indistinguishable from a May Brexit in most areasLordOfReason said:
Totally disagree with you, In fact the very opposite of what you are saying is actually happening, the EU negotiation is no longer properly based on avoiding pain to both sides, just deadlocked in political sticking points. Everything the EU now says smacks to me gotiate with us this side of a GE. I am more convinced every hour, no deal and delay is EUs tactics playing out in front of our eyes. And they are going to sneak the blame on our government as best they can.Big_G_NorthWales said:
This is only the start. When EU countries realise we could no deal Brexit the pressure on Barnier and the EU will be a crisis of their own makingCarlottaVance said:European airports have privately warned that a "no-deal" Brexit would cause "major disruption and heightened safety risks", Sky News has learned.
in a custom union, but not THE custom union? Can Anyone explain that?
What we can be clear about, if Corbyns position is just as you say it is, indistinguishable from May’s, it’s probably in about 1 to 5 minority position in the labour movement, not even backed by the union masters or Momentum praetorian guards! In other words, even if Corbyn were to write in agreeing with what you said, it wouldn’t be worth the paper it was written on, not that he would, as “I would do the same as Tess” is hardly what he has been spinning.
If there was a GE and Labour won it, EU would get a better deal for themselves out of us. fact. And it’s a fact that is now torpedoing May’s deal.
It also assumes Corbyn would win a new general election, in fact based on Yougov yesterday May would win a small majority in a new general election
You would be confident of MAY with a 4%
Blimey0 -
It could be close but I think Cruz should still eke it outDavidL said:
As I said, I will believe this when the last votes are counted. The last Democratic senator in Texas lost in 1993. That's a very long time ago.HYUFD said:
It is a boost for O'Rourke but yes do not go overboard, the Ipsos poll giving him the lead 47% to 45% was taken from 6th to 14th September, a Quinnipiac poll also out taken from 11th to 17th September has Cruz ahead 54% to 45%DavidL said:
I so want this to happen that I cannot quite bring myself to believe it. Cruz is an arse of the first water. Go Beto.TheScreamingEagles said:
If it wasn’t for my legendary modesty I’d be telling you all I tipped that and this.Theuniondivvie said:
https://twitter.com/ladpolitics/status/1042450593510563840?s=21
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Texas,_20180 -
At general election 2017 the LDs were squeezed to just 7% and UKIP to 2%, any net movement there has been since the general election has largely been from the two main parties to those parties rather than to each otherDanny565 said:
Contradiction alert.HYUFD said:
almost all Corbyn's gains came from minor parties who have now largely been squeezed to the bone, indeed if anything there has been some slight Labour to LD movement in the latest polls0 -
Dominic Raab looks very shifty on LBC at the moment.
https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/iain-dale/brexit-secretary-dominic-raab-live-on-lbc/0 -
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Looking over the rest of the Ashcroft poll, it's pretty encouraging for Trump. Most people agree America is doing better than it was, and his supporters are convinced it was his doing regardless of whether they approve of him personally.
As we have seen man times domestically, people who like a politician are willing to swallow an awful lot of personal stuff about them, and even some political stuff, so long as they still identify with them. That's why Boris is still afloat among Tory voters.
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2018/09/america-at-the-midterms/0 -
We don't, though. Thanks.bigjohnowls said:Not a good look.
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I've been speaking to EU diplomats ahead of the Salzburg Summit tomorrow. They are adamant that if the British people wanted a People's Vote, the door is always open and we would be granted the time to do so.0 -
Pineapple on pizza?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
He is obsessed with Dinosaurs apparently, like any normal 5 year old, makes a change from Brexit anywayTheScreamingEagles said:
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I'm sure they'll grant the time for a People's Vote even if you *don't* want one.MarqueeMark said:
We don't, though. Thanks.bigjohnowls said:Not a good look.
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I've been speaking to EU diplomats ahead of the Salzburg Summit tomorrow. They are adamant that if the British people wanted a People's Vote, the door is always open and we would be granted the time to do so.0 -
Evening all
Once again, discordant thoughts this evening. Corbyn's strong performance in 2017 was, as we've seen, predicated on an increased turnout among the young and a slight decline in turnout among older voters. All this nonsense about "squeezing votes from minor parties" can be ignored. The Conservatives will benefit hugely if turnout returns to 2015 patterns.
On A50 - there will be a deal. We're being prepared for a deal, which will be portrayed as a triumph for the Prime Minister and the Government which will be a long way from the truth. The consequences of "No Deal", puffed up as they have been by Project Fear 2018-19, are nonetheless enough to scare the negotiators and the political leaders into agreeing a mutually unacceptable simply because everyone has been scared witless by the alternative.
To re-iterate, Corbyn supports getting out of the EU for the same reasons the likes of JRM do - he wants the power to enact the policies he wants which at the moment is denied him by EU jurisdiction and membership. This is a very different vision of economic management from that of JRM and the "Singapore-on-Thames" brigade. Corbyn wants the ability to regulate, to create very strong employment rights, secure a dominant rile for the Unions and bring the economy under even more Government intervention than even Theresa May.0 -
Lol, the world is on its head indeed.DavidL said:
Is there an actual news story about this somewhere, in a serious newspaper that troubles itself with facts?Theuniondivvie said:
Since the SCon education spokesperson, their 2016 manifesto and Ruth herself have spoken in favour of P1 testing, it'll be fascinating to see the justifications for this umpteenth u turn.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Good to see Ruth winning the dayCarlottaVance said:
To add insult to injury they don't even get his name right....Scott_P said:
I must confess I am perplexed why the Tories are opposing this. The allegation is that teachers, parents and pupils are all getting "stressed" about it. Seems very unlikely to me. On the other hand having a base record of achievement against which progress in School can be measured seems eminently sensible.
I am finding myself supporting an SNP policy being opposed by the Tories. Something is going wrong here somewhere.
I’m on holiday so only picking stuff up on Twitter. I’m ambivalent about the tests themselves but the examples I’ve seen seem so mild that they verge on the meaningless. This has the hallmark of a media froth that’ll pass the average punter (incl. parents) by.0 -
It's not a "People's Vote" it's a second referendum on the deal, with maybe an option to stay in. Campaigning for a second referendum is an honourable position, why do you have to couch it in such misleading terms?williamglenn said:
I'm sure they'll grant the time for a People's Vote even if you *don't* want one.MarqueeMark said:
We don't, though. Thanks.bigjohnowls said:Not a good look.
@ChukaUmunna
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I've been speaking to EU diplomats ahead of the Salzburg Summit tomorrow. They are adamant that if the British people wanted a People's Vote, the door is always open and we would be granted the time to do so.0 -
That’s an awesome display of confirmation bias.CarlottaVance said:
The latest straw.....in a long line of straws.....williamglenn said:0 -
I usually call it a second referendum on here but was just using the same term that was used in the thread.twistedfirestopper3 said:
It's not a "People's Vote" it's a second referendum on the deal, with maybe an option to stay in. Campaigning for a second referendum is an honourable position, why do you have to couch it in such misleading terms?williamglenn said:
I'm sure they'll grant the time for a People's Vote even if you *don't* want one.MarqueeMark said:
We don't, though. Thanks.bigjohnowls said:Not a good look.
@ChukaUmunna
Follow Follow @ChukaUmunna
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I've been speaking to EU diplomats ahead of the Salzburg Summit tomorrow. They are adamant that if the British people wanted a People's Vote, the door is always open and we would be granted the time to do so.0 -
The loss of the like button is sorely felt now.DavidL said:
I can't resist it. It's an ill wind that doesn't blow somebody some good.twistedfirestopper3 said:
My son's best mate has a fledgling tree surgery business up and running. I have my chainsaw ticket (thank you taxpayers!) and I help him out when he needs a hand. we've been run ragged in the East Mids today, the lad is very happy!DavidL said:O/T we had a 4-5 hour power cut today. Power only back at 6.30. It is seriously breezy even here on the east coast.
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It's a deliberately misleading and belittling term used by the pro-LEAVE contingent (of which I suppose I'm one) as a weapon. No one is re-visiting the terms of the 2016 Referendum which was a genuine "second referendum" following the 1975 vote.williamglenn said:
I usually call it a second referendum on here but was just using the same term that was used in the thread.
The "vote" now would be on any deal brought back from the A50 negotiations. The problem is of course it's not a binary option - IF you oppose the deal, that can either mean you want to leave the EU without a deal or perhaps seek further negotiation or perhaps stop the A50 process and remain in the EU. There is no provision for the diversity of options if you vote to reject the deal.
That ultimately is why we can't have a referendum on the A50 deal - not because it's not a good deal but because it's not a referendum. It's more like an election with candidates - Support the Deal, Reject the Deal and Leave the EU and Reject the Deal and Remain in the EU.
It would be easy to frame a ballot paper with those three options but in theory 33.4% of the vote would be enough (bit like FPTP really) to decide how things go.
Another way, I suppose, would be to call a General Election with parties supporting the above positions - now, there's a thought...0 -
John Redwood says on C4 news we should leave the EU without a Withdrawal Agreement and transition period and save on the money paid as part of the exit deal while being free of all the rules0
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"No deal" is a risk (or a threat depending on how you see it), not an option. Once we have a deal, there are only two real-world choices: the deal or remain. A binary referendum to decide what to do would be right and appropriate.stodge said:
It's a deliberately misleading and belittling term used by the pro-LEAVE contingent (of which I suppose I'm one) as a weapon. No one is re-visiting the terms of the 2016 Referendum which was a genuine "second referendum" following the 1975 vote.williamglenn said:
I usually call it a second referendum on here but was just using the same term that was used in the thread.
The "vote" now would be on any deal brought back from the A50 negotiations. The problem is of course it's not a binary option - IF you oppose the deal, that can either mean you want to leave the EU without a deal or perhaps seek further negotiation or perhaps stop the A50 process and remain in the EU. There is no provision for the diversity of options if you vote to reject the deal.
That ultimately is why we can't have a referendum on the A50 deal - not because it's not a good deal but because it's not a referendum. It's more like an election with candidates - Support the Deal, Reject the Deal and Leave the EU and Reject the Deal and Remain in the EU.
It would be easy to frame a ballot paper with those three options but in theory 33.4% of the vote would be enough (bit like FPTP really) to decide how things go.
Another way, I suppose, would be to call a General Election with parties supporting the above positions - now, there's a thought...0 -
I'd agree if that were genuinely the case but there do seem to be a number of people who seem to actively want us to leave the EU without any kind of deal or agreement and indeed see that as a positive opportunity for the UK so it can't really be dismissed as a "risk".williamglenn said:"No deal" is a risk (or a threat depending on how you see it), not an option. Once we have a deal, there are only two real-world choices: the deal or remain. A binary referendum to decide what to do would be right and appropriate.
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US President Donald Trump has said he does not "have an attorney general" in his fiercest attack yet on Jeff Sessions.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-455777810 -
Free of Jaguar Land Rover too.HYUFD said:John Redwood says on C4 news we should leave the EU without a Withdrawal Agreement and transition period and save on the money paid as part of the exit deal while being free of all the rules
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So basically a re-run? How very European of youwilliamglenn said:
"No deal" is a risk (or a threat depending on how you see it), not an option. Once we have a deal, there are only two real-world choices: the deal or remain. A binary referendum to decide what to do would be right and appropriate.stodge said:
It's a deliberately misleading and belittling term used by the pro-LEAVE contingent (of which I suppose I'm one) as a weapon. No one is re-visiting the terms of the 2016 Referendum which was a genuine "second referendum" following the 1975 vote.williamglenn said:
I usually call it a second referendum on here but was just using the same term that was used in the thread.
The "vote" now would be on any deal brought back from the A50 negotiations. The problem is of course it's not a binary option - IF you oppose the deal, that can either mean you want to leave the EU without a deal or perhaps seek further negotiation or perhaps stop the A50 process and remain in the EU. There is no provision for the diversity of options if you vote to reject the deal.
That ultimately is why we can't have a referendum on the A50 deal - not because it's not a good deal but because it's not a referendum. It's more like an election with candidates - Support the Deal, Reject the Deal and Leave the EU and Reject the Deal and Remain in the EU.
It would be easy to frame a ballot paper with those three options but in theory 33.4% of the vote would be enough (bit like FPTP really) to decide how things go.
Another way, I suppose, would be to call a General Election with parties supporting the above positions - now, there's a thought...
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Probably laying the groundwork to leave regardless of outcome, if the comments regarding Eastern European costs are anything to go by.Bromptonaut said:
Free of Jaguar Land Rover too.HYUFD said:John Redwood says on C4 news we should leave the EU without a Withdrawal Agreement and transition period and save on the money paid as part of the exit deal while being free of all the rules
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There won't be after the midterms either.LordOfReason said:
Not yet.Stereotomy said:
There aren't enough democrats in the senate to pass it without help from the GOPLordOfReason said:
You what? If democrat house voted to impeach, what makes you sure democrat senate then blocks? The process will milk his weakness, but short of forcing his resignation.Stereotomy said:
Eh, impeaching plays to the base and it wouldn't actually remove him since the Senate would vote against (unless the GOP decides to ditch Trump)LordOfReason said:
On a life raft, sinking into a storm, about to die, an escape rope comes down to the Democrats and they impeach it? There is absolutely zero chance of Democrat’s impeaching Trump, he is mana from heaven to them in ballot boxes.Nigelb said:
Until you’ve seen what evidence might be laid before Congress, that would be a premature judgment.HYUFD said:What the polling shows is that any impeachment proceedings if the Democrats took the House would go on partisan lines exactly as the Clinton impeachment proceedings in 1998
Of course here will be a core of his support who stick with Trump whatever happens - but that was also true of Nixon.
What gets presented to Congress is far likelier to be along Nixonian than Clintonian lines. And Mueller is, after all, a lifelong Republican.
Bread of heaven bread of heaven tweet me till I want no more
Say what you like about playing to the base, all Democrats smart enough to still want Trump there for elections in two years time. His wild policies havnt even trashed the economy yet. Keep watching. 0 -
Man City...erhhhhhh....0
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I happen to think his policies would damage the UK. But if the voters disagree that is their right.stodge said:
To re-iterate, Corbyn supports getting out of the EU for the same reasons the likes of JRM do - he wants the power to enact the policies he wants which at the moment is denied him by EU jurisdiction and membership. This is a very different vision of economic management from that of JRM and the "Singapore-on-Thames" brigade. Corbyn wants the ability to regulate, to create very strong employment rights, secure a dominant rile for the Unions and bring the economy under even more Government intervention than even Theresa May.
It’s called living in a democracy-1 -
For people who worry about the quality of our political leaders, remember that John Redwood was once a Secretary of State.HYUFD said:John Redwood says on C4 news we should leave the EU without a Withdrawal Agreement and transition period and save on the money paid as part of the exit deal while being free of all the rules
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But Wales doesn’t really count, does it?Charles said:
For people who worry about the quality of our political leaders, remember that John Redwood was once a Secretary of State.HYUFD said:John Redwood says on C4 news we should leave the EU without a Withdrawal Agreement and transition period and save on the money paid as part of the exit deal while being free of all the rules
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I refer you to Sir Thomas More’s musing on the subjectJohnO said:
But Wales doesn’t really count, does it?Charles said:
For people who worry about the quality of our political leaders, remember that John Redwood was once a Secretary of State.HYUFD said:John Redwood says on C4 news we should leave the EU without a Withdrawal Agreement and transition period and save on the money paid as part of the exit deal while being free of all the rules
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John...ciao comrade...long time as they say......JohnO said:
But Wales doesn’t really count, does it?Charles said:
For people who worry about the quality of our political leaders, remember that John Redwood was once a Secretary of State.HYUFD said:John Redwood says on C4 news we should leave the EU without a Withdrawal Agreement and transition period and save on the money paid as part of the exit deal while being free of all the rules
It is difficult to imagine but after a decade or longer posting here, there is very little now to separate us politically....and neither of us have moved much (if at all) I guess
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The FTPA has done a pretty good job so far....Benpointer said:
Does it? What document could it possibly be that constrains future parliaments?RobD said:
Depends on what the document is, I suppose.Benpointer said:
That's nonsense. May could quite happily put her name to a document 'promising that there will be no second vote on leaving the EU' without the caveat, if she wanted. After all, it would not tie her successors in any way would it, since they would not feel bound by it?RobD said:
Because it would be stupid to say there was going to be no referendum ever again on the topic. People really do read too much into things sometimes.williamglenn said:
The subtext of May’s caveat is presumably a promise that while she is PM there will be no second referendum, without having to put it those exact terms.0 -
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Always ask Cui Bono.Scott_P said:
I think that was written by a supporter of Jeremy Hunt. Everyone else is dismissed or damned with faint praise and the risks pointed out (eg Rudd).
He is a “dark horse” (he’s Foreign Secretary FFS) “coming up the rail” like “John Major, 1990”
Subtext - he’s going to win because the rest are flawed. If you back him early you get influence or a prize.0 -
I doubt it. He seems like a sensible kind of guy, and would probably not think of running were he to win.TheScreamingEagles said:
If it wasn’t for my legendary modesty I’d be telling you all I tipped that and this.Theuniondivvie said:
https://twitter.com/ladpolitics/status/1042450593510563840?s=21
It’s possible he might not turn down the VP slot, though.
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Yeah, never due to Brexit, is it?RobD said:
Probably laying the groundwork to leave regardless of outcome, if the comments regarding Eastern European costs are anything to go by.Bromptonaut said:
Free of Jaguar Land Rover too.HYUFD said:John Redwood says on C4 news we should leave the EU without a Withdrawal Agreement and transition period and save on the money paid as part of the exit deal while being free of all the rules
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Telegraph article without the paywall: https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/9h8vqd/leaked_tory_dossier_reveals_secret_plan_to/0
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I wouldn't put myself naturally in the MadNad fan club.. but the bit screenshotted by the DTel does read like the scribblings of the work experience kid in a backbencher's office. If it's the distilled thoughts of anyone influential, we're in more* trouble than we thought.CarlottaVance said:
(* or "it confirms our suspicions about how much")0 -
It's not often I agree with Nadine but having read the memo it doesn't look like a particularly serious analysis. Fake news, I'd say.CarlottaVance said:0 -
O/T Assuming, as I currently do, that a modified Chequers is agreed with the EU and then presented for approval to parliament, what are the chances that TMay will make it a confidence issue?
And if she does will the ERG still vote against in sufficient numbers to bring the Government down?
Or will she hope to draw Labour support if she does not make it a confidence issue?
Just asking.0 -
The Telegraph has become a broadsheet version of the daily Express. Can someone do us all a favour and put it out of our miseryBenpointer said:
It's not often I agree with Nadine but having read the memo it doesn't look like a particularly serious analysis. Fake news, I'd say.CarlottaVance said:0
This discussion has been closed.