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As we get closer to Brexit day Paddy Power have some Brexit specials up.
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Would be interesting to monitor them, though.
A long, brilliant, and very troubling, Ann Applebaum article on the polarisation of Europe:
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2018/10/poland-polarization/568324/
But there is always the possibility a vote of no confidence can be triggered by mistake, as it were, or at least without coordinated action, since we do not know how many letters the 1922 already has. Perhaps just one or two more disgruntled or slighted MPs will be all it takes.
I think that May could well lose a no-confidence motion IF it comes at the right time - basically a crisis point. The ERG are obviously very disciplined and smart and realise that they get one chance and they need to pick their moment. That will come sometime around the point that it is obvious that Chequers is completely dead and that massive compromises are about to be made that cross the red lines, the most important one being customs union membership (eg no trade policy). Once it is obvious that May is stuck, the ERG will move.
I personally think May will resign when talks hit the buffers - she is too proud to move to CETA.
I do agree though if May went only a hard Brexiteer would replace her, maybe Davis by coronation
Red lines? Customs union can be fudged provided we join *a* not *the* customs union, or even if we just agree regulatory alignment (deniable but de facto union), and so can freedom of movement given no-one in government or business shows the slightest desire to reduce immigration from anywhere at all, EU or not. Not to mention the last time a Prime Minister resigned on a matter of honour was, oh, I don't know but I'm sure it must have happened once or twice.
So how do Conservative members elect a Remainer? Well, firstly, members might not even get a vote; last time Andrea Leadsom was lent on to withdraw. Since it is most likely that the party will be electing a new Prime Minister, it will be claimed there is simply no time to consult members before the new PM is needed for crucial talks on the export of kiwi fruit regulations or some such.
More subtly, it depends on your definition of Remainer. The front-runners will be Hunt, Javid and Hammond, probably in that order. Like most Conservative ministers, they are post-referendum converts to Leave, so that's all right then, both sides can claim them. There will not be a head-banger Brexiteer: sorry JRM and DD. Boris is ruled out for other reasons but could easily have converted to Remain by then in any case.
But we agree Theresa May will lose a no-confidence vote.
FOM can be fudged but nobody will be fooled, and therefore it won't work.
However is there a majority for any other particular course of action?
You need to read what Barnier and Junker are saying. They don't want this deal, they want an FTA. And as soon as they back down on NI, they can have it. Just as well the ERG came up with a perfectly credible and well thought out plan as to how that can happen.
BTW did you not notice the DUP throwing their weight behind the ERG paper and CETA?
At a more mundane level, I am in Europe now, and the extent to which almost every park we have visited (which is a fair few, as I travel with a dog) is now almost a refugee camp and considered off limits by many locals is really quite striking. In England we are concerned about mostly employed and hard working east Europeans when European cities have large numbers of unemployed Africans hanging around day and night. It is hardly surprising there is a political reaction.
Sometimes specials don't have very special odds. Felt much the same way about the Ladbrokes specials (mostly about Leclerc) on F1.
Although Lisa Nandy yesterday saying she would vote for Chequers to avoid chaos is perhaps a straw in the wind that sensible Labour MPs recognise they will be tarred with a No Deal Brexit brush just as much as the Governmet, if there is no deal to vote on. Perhaps more so as their Remain-heavy support base question "Why didn't you do something to stop this madness?"
But will Theresa May still be around if the only way she can get a crappy fudged BINO deal through is on the back of Labour support/abstentions?
What does the world look like after a few can kicks? I mean, the voters are sick of this whole thing already, and it hasn't even happened yet.
In reality the most likely outcome is Withdrawal Agreement is the only bill to vote on, and the long term outcome done on a lick and a promise. This gives us a further 2 years to argue over all options from Seppuko Brexit to EEA plus. I reckon the only decent Brexit bet is on the March withdrawal date at 1.6 on BFX.
Don't leave.
Exit to EFTA/EEA
Crash out and discover the WTO doesn't work as claimed by ERG
Choose.
https://www.theepochtimes.com/florence-could-hit-north-carolina-with-flood-of-pig-manure_2659311.html
Pig crap too, eugh.
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1039965109194567680
What happens next depends on the reaction to that reality. If the EU in particular comes to terms with it then there may be many constructive agreements about areas of cooperation which some will see here as going back into the EU by the back door. If they don't we will just drift further and further apart for good or ill.
I think the majority of our political class will very much want the former either, depending on their viewpoint, to mitigate the damage or because a "grown up" but independent relationship with the EU is self evidently in our interests. Others will scream betrayal. I suspect they will get as much traction as the bastards traditionally got and few will be interested but the internal politics of the Tory party is an uncertainty in that respect.
http://www.lefigaro.fr/international/2018/09/12/01003-20180912ARTFIG00282-les-francais-se-mefient-des-etats-unis-de-trump-et-plebiscitent-l-allemagne.php
most trusted ally is Germany 89& of those polled, UK still high at 61%
The UK political class has few gains in dragging it out and the Europeans have enough of their won issues to be bothered with us.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/hungary-leader-viktor-orban-brexit-uk-conservatives-eu-authoritarian-islamophobia-antisemitism-a8535271.html
"One Tory politician in Westminster told The Independent: “No one will say it publicly, but it’s clear that we are going to gain brownie points with people who might be able to help us in the Brexit negotiations."
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/republicans-are-favorites-in-the-senate-but-democrats-have-two-paths-to-an-upset/
My awesome puns are wasted on you lot.
While I understand you are hugely opposed to leaving it might just pay dividends to go have a rest and come back with a clear head. Both sides say they are at 80% of a deal. The hard parts are still to come of course, thats the nature of negotiations, but even Barnier is saying a deal is possible in the next 2 months, Juncker said the same yesterday to the EU Parlt.
The UK partisans on both sides have nowhere else to go in the next 2 months bar screaming and the public just isnt interested.
Barring "events" all sides want this done and out of the way and know they havent much time to get it fixed.
I was intrigued by the argument deployed by some conservatives that this isn't part of MEP's responsibilities, I don't know enough about the topic, but clearly plenty of MEPs take a different view.
Absolute bargain and confirms once again iPhones are the phones of the working classes.
And you continue miss my main point. Negotiations on the final deal haven't started. They will not start until after March next year. Brexit is not going away.
Karma?
Fun fact kids only ourselves and Iran have unelected clergy in our legislatures.
(Though the new ARM chip within, and the TSMC 7nm process it's being built on, is very interesting.)
read your own posts mate
and as for the illiterate, Ive yet to see any of our long term posters who is illiterate either economically or politically yourself included. Just because somebody doesnt share your view doesnt make them illiterate it just means they dont share your way of seeing things.
As Ive pointed out to you numerous time we all live different day to day realities and what works for you in London doesnt work out here in the sticks.
Try harder or at least get better insults
Isn't the problem that the EU just doesn't like the results of the Hungarian democratic process? No criticism at all by contrast of the Swedish election last week which isn't even a secret ballot as election officials and others in the polling station can see how you vote because you have to pick a piece of paper for the party you vote for in public or get the party's paper handed to you as you arrive (or which has been pre delivered to your home) by party activists. It's positively banana republic in terms of the scope for intimidation and lack of a secret ballot.
Democracy is fine with the EU - as long of course as you vote the right way. Not defending Orban but the majority of Hungarians seem happy with him - and nearly half the voters who didn't back him think he is too soft and liberal!
As Ms Applebaum says, 'Medium Sized' lies will do it....
Labour, the DUP and Tory ERG have all said No, but there will be a lot of pressure to take it.
http://www.faz.net/aktuell/finanzen/finanzmarkt/erdogan-macht-sich-zum-chef-des-tuerkischen-staatsfonds-15784494.html
Who could possibly object?
A fair question but completely irrelevant. It does what it's supposed to do and buys a huge shot of added value publicity at Christmas and is therefore worth far more than the £4 million it costs
Advertising comes in all shapes and sizes and when they stopped handing out John Lewis shopping bags they lost millions of classy low cost ads wandering up and down the country's streets. Watching people leave of the store with their purchases in plastic Asda shopping bags must surely have alerted somebody?
I've always thought that you should never state anything unequivocally when it is your subjective viewpoint. Isn't it odd that it's common practice in political discussion?
I know you're not a scientist but is it common is legal parlance too?
You have a deeply held opinion but that doesn't make it any more certain to be true. I think Mrs May is a poor politician and David Cameron was a good politician even if I disliked him. Events may prove me wrong, but I can't change those events by being certain I'm right.
I think that forecasting economic events is a risky business. I think leaving the EU is the right thing to do. It has a goal and won't be deflected from that goal.
When we leave, we nay do much better economically than if we'd stayed. We may do worse. if it's the former, the Remainer view will be that we'd have done even better by staying.
The point I'm making is that you can never persuade people by being really,really certain, or by teaching them to suck eggs, so I'd better stop there. But you can annoy them.
Anyway, the EU cannot even get its act together to suspend Hungary's voting rights as the Poles will back them.